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Week 13 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

November 30th, 2008

A lot of the action already went down on Thursday, but there are still a few sneaky starts and player concerns this week. Here are a few players that might help or hurt you in staking your claim for a playoff spot on this fine Sunday.

Hot Hands

Chad Pennington, QB Dolphins vs. Rams — It’s sort of a no-brainer that even a noodle arm can go big against the Rams. As long as Davone Bess can fill the gap left by Greg Camarillo, I think Pennington could be in for a modest but respectable fantasy performance in St. Louis.

Ronnie Brown, RB Dolphins vs. Rams – Of course, Pennington’s main competition for points will be this man right here. Hopefully, Brown shares the love and doesn’t gobble up all the touchdown runs and touchdown passes. One can only hope. Maybe he’ll even share with Ricky Williams. Ricky loves to pass, especially in circles and while listening to Dave Matthews Band.

Lee Evans, WR Bills vs. 49ers — Barring a perfect storm, this week could be your best chance to get something out of Lee Evans before he gets snowed in for the rest of the season. Trent Edwards found his game last week, and hopefully, Evans can expose the 49ers’ secondary just as Terrell Owens did last week.

Bernard Berrian, WR Vikings vs. Bears — If Berrian was going to heat up again down the stretch, this game would be the part where the water starts to steam. As long as Gus Frerotte would like to hold up his end of the bargain, I’m sure that Berrian would love to put a hurting on his former team.

Dustin Keller, TE Jets vs. Broncos — Since is 100+ yard game in Week 10, Keller’s seen at least six targets in every game. I like that streak and his chances against a QB-friendly Broncos defense that may occasionally shut down one of Brett Favre’s wide receivers throughout the day.

Baltimore Ravens D/ST vs. Bengals — Ryan Fitzpatrick sees this coming, and there is nothing he can do about it.

Bubble Boys

David Garrard, QB Jaguars vs. Texans — When Garrard matched up against Houston earlier this season, he blew up the Texans’ defense with a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown in his second-best fantasy performance of the season. Can I have a repeat?

Matt Cassel, QB Patriots vs. Steelers — Hot streak or brown streak, the Steelers are the kind of defense that makes the cookie crumble. I always wanted to call Cassel a cookie. Done.

Larry Johnson, RB Chiefs vs. Raiders — He was a complete bust last time he faced the Raiders. Can you trust him this time around? The offense is better, but is L.J.? The matchup is too good to sit him, but I definitely have my concerns going into this week.

Ted Ginn Jr., WR Dolphins vs. Rams — How much did Camarillo distract defenses and allow Ginn to get open for the big play? We’ll see on Sunday, but Ginn’s still worth a chance to prove his worth.

Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST vs. Texans – Just questionable enough not to start against a Texans team looking to get back the Jags for what they did to them in Week 4. It’s likely that both teams could look like they forgot to play defense.

Cold Shoulders

Jason Campbell, QB Redskins vs. Giants — Campbell’s already having dizzy spells and hot flashes thinking about the first matchup with the Giants this season. The past few weeks haven’t been impressive enough for us to overlook that day either. You’ll have to take the good with the bad this week with Campbell and hope for at least one good touchdown pass.

Reggie Bush, RB Saints vs. Buccaneers — Even if Bush returns, this matchup is one of those where you’d probably be better off seeing what Bush can do before you rely on him to win a game for you. Only play Bush if he starts and if you have no more reliable options. Bush might spent more time on the sidelines than in the game.

Willie Parker, RB Steelers vs. Patriots — The Pats can stop the run, and Parker is in no shape to amaze us this week.

Steve Smith, WR Panthers vs. Packers – After a huge game last week, Smith is due for a cooling off against a top-rated pass defense. The Packers defense is bound to look for retribution after what the Saints did to them, and Delhomme could struggle.

Dwayne Bowe, WR Chiefs vs. Raiders — Nnamdi Asomugha would like to give you a heads up that Bowe won’t be open all day. Thanks for your understanding.

Chris Cooley, TE Redskins vs. Giants – Cooley, just like the rest of the Redskins, didn’t have a good showing when he faced the Giants in the season opener. If Campbell can’t make it happen, Cooley can’t either. He’s likely to have more blocking duties than usual this week.

San Diego Chargers D/ST vs. Falcons — On paper, this game looked like a slaughter at the beginning of the season. Now, I think you should move away from the Chargers D/ST. Chargers defense without Shawne Merriman is more dangerous than you would expect.

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On the Wire: Week 13 Pickups and Waiver Wire Reserves for the Playoffs

November 28th, 2008

Hope you had a good Thanksgiving, fools!

This week, with playoffs right around the corner, you probably don’t need a lot of players to solidify your lineup. If you are looking for gems, go digging through our old waiver wire posts from this season.

Still, a few guys just became relevant or might become relevant in the next few weeks as depth for your playoff bench.

By now, you probably either have a good team or a bunch of terribles. As you head into the playoffs, you’ll want to trim the fat. Drop players that you are never going to start after Week 13 and handcuff your studs with their backups or a comparable stud/starter if you can get your hands on one.

After you’ve done all that, if you still have room to pick up a few shot-in-the-dark playoff hopefuls, here’s a few guys to look at adding. For the sake of our categories (Worth Claiming, Ones to Watch, Ignoring), consider all of these guys ‘Worth Claiming’ if you have the room on your roster.

Shaun Hill, QB San Francisco 49ers — Hill’s still available in the majority of leagues, which is surprising considering that he is a Mike Martz quarterback on a team that tends to fall behind in games. Unlike JTO, he’s getting rid of the ball quickly and playing smart football. With Miami and St. Louis at the end of his playoff schedule, it’s very likely that he will outperform your current backup QB.

Trent Edwards, QB Buffalo Bills — Edwards isn’t quite done yet. While he’s had a rough patch the last several games, he found his stride against the Chiefs and had his first multi-touchdown performance this season. As long as the weather of the frigid northern tundra allows, he should return to his consistent performance from earlier in the season. Just ignore him during that Jets matchup in Week 15.

Antonio Pittman and Kenneth Darby, RB St. Louis Rams – While neither Pittman nor Darby has won over our hearts just yet, they’ve filled in admirably in place of an injured Steven Jackson for a struggling Rams squad. Whether Jackson ever makes it back to 100 percent or not, there’s no reason for the Rams to put him back out on the field. The Rams’ season is done. If Jackson sits it out the rest of the way, Pittman could be in line for decent weeks in Week 15 against Seattle and Week 16 against San Francisco, and if Darby continues to outperform Pittman, it could be Darby getting the carries in those games. They are depth options at best, but if you needed them in a pinch, it would be nice to have them on your roster.



St. Louis Rams v New York Jets

LeRon McClain, RB Baltimore Ravens — Does anyone know what is going on in Baltimore these days? I think the running backs coach is actually just a coin flip — but not a regular coin, one of those “Two Face” style coins from Batman with a gimpy running back on one side, a fatty fullback on the other and a tiny rookie engraved around the edge. Baltimore will have to play tough down the stretch, and if McClain doesn’t end up doing that tough running, maybe he’ll at least vulture a few touchdowns.

Maurice Morris, RB Seattle Seahawks — I’ve liked Morris better that Julius Jones all season, and Morris has made his case for the starting job since returning from injury. Unfortunately, his fantasy playoff schedule is atrocious, but he does have St. Louis in Week 15.

Cadillac Williams, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Warrick Dunn will need someone to give him a breather down the stretch, and Williams seems to have recovered well enough to take some carries this season. B.J. Askew and Cadillac will share the rest of Dunn’s load. No games pop off the schedule except for the Saints this week and the Falcons in Week 15, but as much as Tampa Bay likes to run the ball, it’s hard not to give Caddy a chance.

Domenik Hixon, WR New York Giants — I like Hixon better than Plaxico Burress at this point, and he’s playing this week, unlike Plax. Hixon has the talent to blow some defenses up, but with no easy games left and a running game that isn’t slowed by anyone, he’s a risky option to end the season.



Miami Dolphins v Denver Broncos

Davone Bess, WR Miami Dolphins — While mostly a return man, Bess now finds himself starting with Greg Camarillo down for the season. Miami has one of the softest schedules to end the year with the Rams, 49ers and Chiefs. Watch him this week against the Rams to see how effective he is before you pull the trigger unless you are really hurting for another receiver.

Josh Reed, WR Buffalo Bills — A possession receiver in the snowy mess of Buffalo could prove valuable down the stretch, especially if you are in a PPR league and just lost someone like Greg Camarillo. Don’t expect a touchdown every week. It might be another 20+ games before that happens again.

Jay Feely, K New York Jets — Feely’s been on a hot streak the last few weeks, and now that the Jets have a strategy for winning games revolving around defense and running the football, Feely could be in line to sweep up a lot of drives that don’t make it to the red zone.

Neil Rackers, K Arizona Cardinals — It never hurts to have a kicker in a high-powered offense. Overlooking his poor week against Philly, the Arizona offense is hard to keep quiet, and he’ll have his chances to put points on the board.

Rian Lindell, K Buffalo Bills — Despite weather concerns, Lindell has been one of the top-rated kickers in the last several weeks. He’s likely to keep getting his chances, even after the weather gets bad. Let’s hope his aim doesn’t go wide right.

Who you can drop: Cedric Benson, Deuce McAllister, Derek Anderson, Carson Palmer and David Carr … always David Carr.

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A Fool and His Money in Week 13

November 27th, 2008

While your fantasy season might be coming to an end, there are still plenty of spreads to be picked. Here’s how it’s going down this week…

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions

Fools Take: Titans (-10.5) over LIONS

Nick says: How about a round of applause for the Tennessee Titans? Nobody expected an undefeated season, and it was a good run while it lasted. I made more money than I lost on the Titans, and I thank them for that. I’m rooting for them the rest of the way, even if I won’t be betting on them anymore. Hopefully, they get back to running the ball this week.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

Fools Take: Seahawks (+13) over COWBOYS

Nick says: Yes, I’m a hater. I don’t expect the Seahawks to win, but I’m hoping they keep it within two touchdowns.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles

Fools Take: Cardinals (+3) over EAGLES $

Nick says: Let me get this right. The Eagles play horribly, bench their starter, give him back his job and are now favored this week against a playoff bound team? Do people really believe in McNabb that much? I don’t think so. I’ll be taking the Cardinals straight up in this one.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Fools Take: Ravens (-7) over BENGALS $

Nick says: I’m really enjoying the Ravens right now. They are destroying the spreads. Their defense doesn’t let opposing teams score garbage points in garbage time.

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns

Fools Take: Colts (-5) over BROWNS

Nick says: I refuse to ever pick the Browns. That doesn’t really matter here since common sense would tell you that the Colts are going to spank the Browns.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins

Fools Take: Giants (-3.5) over REDSKINS $

Nick says: Another no-brainer. The Redskins have been struggling as of late and the Giants are just steamrolling their way through the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills

Fools Take: BILLS (-7) over 49ers

Nick says: Did the Bills find the spark they needed last week? Maybe. This spread is more of a pick against the 49ers than a pick for the Bills. The 49ers had a chance to show me something last week, and instead, they got exposed.

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers

Fools Take: Falcons (+5) over CHARGERS

Nick says: I have officially let go of my expectations for the Chargers. They are no longer elite and don’t deserve to go to the playoffs. The Falcons keep getting it done. They are at least worthy of a pick with some points.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

Fools Take: RAIDERS (-3) over Chiefs

Nick says: No one cares about this game. I’m sorry I wasted your time even writing this line down.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Fools Take: Steelers (+1.5) over PATRIOTS

Nick says: I like the new Patriots, but I’m not ready to put them as favorites against a proven contender this year.

New York Jets at Denver Broncos

Fools Take: JETS (-8) over Broncos $

Nick says: I hate the Broncos. They just keep sucking right when you think they might be turning a corner. It’s tough not to love the Jets at home in this one after they dismantled the Titans and after the Raiders dismantled the Broncos.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

Fools Take: VIKINGS (-3.5) over Bears

Nick says: I don’t know what it is, but the Bears seem to have lost that midseason spark they had going. Orton’s injury ruined the rhythm and momentum of the offense. Has anyone seen Devin Hester this season?

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Fools Take: TEXANS (-3.5) over Jaguars

Nick says: Possibly the worst Monday night game of the year. I’m going with the Texans, but there is a sincere note of apathy in this pick. The Texans were at least fun to watch when Matt Schaub was running the show. Sage just doesn’t get it going for me. Ed. Note: It’s the helicopter, isn’t it?

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fools Take: BUCS (-3.5) over Saints

Nick says: The Saints had a good game against the Packers, but I don’t expect it to carry over to an away game. The Bucs need to win this type of game to prove they are a legit contender in the NFC.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

Fools Take: PACKERS (-3) over Panthers

Nick says: Jake Delhomme has struggled some this year. The Packers secondary is one of the best in the league, and I expect them to rebound from their poor performance in New Orleans last week. I think this game comes down to Delhomme versus Aaron Rodgers, and I like Rodgers at home.

Miami Dolphins at St. Louis Rams

Fools Take: Dolphins (-8) over RAMS

Nick says: I was hoping this line would be a touchdown or less, but I still like Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to run wild in this game. The Rams have done nothing this season outside of two mysterious weeks.

Last Week:

Nick: 9-6-1

Current Standings after Week 12:

Nick: 90-79-3
Nick’s Locks: 5-3

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Foolish Thoughts on Week 12: What happened to my weekend

November 26th, 2008



U-Haul Co. Discusses Debt Restructuring

As you might have guessed, my weekend didn’t quite go as planned. You see, I got a new day job in Dallas — and no, it’s not as backup quarterback for the Cowboys despite the fact that Brad Johnson didn’t put up much of a fight.

If you’d rather skip the story and get straight to this week’s brief thoughts on fantasy football, click here to jump straight to the fantasy football content.

This weekend was supposed to be the big move. I had my things packed and ready to go, a UHAUL truck was reserved and the family was coming down to assist. As of Friday night, my plan was to load up the truck Saturday afternoon, make my Fools posts Saturday night for Week 12 and drive back Sunday morning with time to watch the Colts-Chargers game.

The rest of the games, sadly, would have to be watched as replays and on the DVR since every method I researched to watch live NFL football while driving a big UHAUL truck down the highway seemed too dangerous to do.

There was a slight detour in the plan when my mother called to tell me that my father wasn’t coming down to help me move as she drove down Saturday morning. He was still feeling a little under the weather, but I still thought the plan was going to work out. No big deal.

Of course, this backup plan now meant that I would be moving furniture with an aunt, my mother and my sister.

The plan was still on at this point to stay the night in Austin before departing for the Big D.

But then, to borrow a phrase from VH1′s Behind the Music, it all came crashing down … dun dun dun

As we were crashing out to sleep after loading most of the truck, my mom called my dad to find out that his condition has worsened. He wasn’t feeling good at all, and, in fact, he probably needed to head up to the emergency room on this late Saturday night to see a doctor.

My mother got packed up in a hurry, coordinated a team of relatives from both sides of the family to take my father to the emergency room and took off with my aunt to head back to Dallas in my aunt’s car just before midnight, and I was left to load the rest of the truck with my sister and take off a bit after them in the UHAUL for a caffeine-fueled, four-hour trip to Dallas.

I was tired, sweating out of every pore and pretty much ready to turn in when the plan got changed, so needless to say, the changed plan was looking pretty hopeless. Not only did I have to load the truck and take off to drive back, but I had to leave my car behind so that my sister and I could ride together and keep each other awake.

After loading the truck with my couch and bed, I purchased some Rockstar and some Mountain Dew, which I normally avoid, and we headed for Dallas to find out what was going on with my father.

Fortunately for my sister and me, I didn’t even come close to sleepy with some coffee-in-a-can Rockstar in my stomach and the butt-like aftertaste in my mouth. Pouring on the Mountain Dew and a big cup of highly-caffeinated truck stop coffee pretty much sealed the deal.

That coffee could wake the dead.

A little after 5 a.m. we finally got home, and I somehow managed to post a 6 a.m. start or sit for Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders before going into a coma Sunday. I felt like Pacman Jones returning from a night of making it rain.

(My dad was under a doctor’s care and going to be okay at this point, so don’t think I was blogging from the emergency room.)

With the moving, the sleep deprivation, starting a new job, a dad in the hospital and the caffeine withdrawals the last few days, I saw my weekend get zapped right out of my hands.

Despite the craziness, one good thing did come out of this weekend: at least I didn’t have to watch some of the Week 12 games like you guys did.

Unfortunately, following up on the games after the any given weekend festivities doesn’t make them much better.

Jay Cutler and Donovan McNabb are on my “don’t touch” list — right beside hot stoves and hookers. Cutler could easily come back strong, but I’m shaky about rolling into the playoffs with either. Tough games ahead could spell disaster. The Broncos look deflated, and the Eagles look like they are just trying to tie now that they realized they can do that.

It might be time to look at Shaun Hill, Tyler Thigpen or Chad Pennington if you haven’t already.

Brian Westbrook isn’t weathering the chunky, brown storm in Philly any better than McNabb. His performances the last few weeks clearly show he’s not healthy. I own him in one league, but I’ll be making contingency plans for him.

There are very few fantasy football rosters I would expect to see Deuce McAllister on after last week. He’s not getting the carries he used to get, and he’s bound to be suspended to end the season.

Even though he resurged this week, I still think Philip Rivers is a complete fantasy-fake douche. He’s going to fall flat at least once during Weeks 14-16 like he did in Week 11. A mistake there would cost you your playoffs. That’s it. He’s added to the list.



New York Jets v Tennessee Titans

It was bound to happen, Tennessee fans. Eventually, some team was going to make the Titans receivers look like the players we thought they were.

The Jets had the perfect mix with a defensive line that could contain the run, and a group of corners that could play man-to-man on all the passing options, including Bo Scaife.

Kerry Collins didn’t have a chance to make a play, and a team like that isn’t going to make it far in the playoffs. Sorry, Titans. If they weren’t playing the Lions this weekend, I might dare to say they would start a downward spiral. How funny would it be if a deflated Titans team lost to the Lions to become the Lions’ first victory of the season?

Brett Favre has the Jets on pace for the playoffs, and it seems like he’s got that spark in the passing game. I still think the Jets will remain Thomas Jones’ team. Jones has some great matchups to end the season, which makes me wonder whether the Jets will even attempt to throw the ball.

Matt Cassel might be the real thing. He’s certainly better than Brad Johnson, but I have to believe he’s not a game-changing quarterback. Otherwise, why would he ride the bench since high school?

Will the Patriots pay for him? I doubt it, but you never know. If a team like Kansas City offers him a nice contract, he’s likely to take it for a starting job, but I still think he’s benefiting from a great situation. Without Wes Welker and Randy Moss making plays for him, Cassel’s not going to look nearly as Brady-like, even in a Pats uniform.

Welcome back to Darren McFadden and Terrell Owens. Nice to have you for the playoffs.

More impressions from the weekend? At this point, I think there’s a good feel for everyone you are starting, but post up a chat topic in the comments if you’d like to prognosticate about your chances in the fantasy playoffs.

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Week 12 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

November 23rd, 2008

I don’t even know why I am awake right now at 6 a.m. on Sunday.

Actually, that’s a lie. I’m awake right now because I am infused with truck stop coffee, the kind of coffee that fills you with enough energy to punch a wall with your head … twice.

Needless to say, it’s been an eventful weekend, but more on that later. For now, let’s talk sit/start very quickly before I pass out to sleep.



Philadelphia Eagles v Seattle Seahawks

It looks like a cold week for Brian Westbrook. Banged up and facing Baltimore, I am benching him this week for a matchup play with Jonathan Stewart.

I’d seriously consider all other options to sub in for your Eagles players this week. Coming off a beating by the Giants, the Baltimore defense could look to put a hurting on the Eagles early and often.

I like all the Bears this week, especially Orton and Forte as they find themselves getting back on track against a terrible Rams defense.

If Jamal Lewis is going to have a 100-yard game, this week is probably the one where he’ll do it.

I wouldn’t start a single Lion besides Calvin Johnson, but what else is new?

Lee Evans is a bubble start this week with Trent Edwards playing terrible and scared, but I think he’s worth starting with the chance he might rebound this week after last week’s scoreless effort.

I don’t think Ronnie Brown is going to Wildcat all over the Patriots’ faces this week, but he’s not as bad of a play as many think. If Thomas Jones can get 100+ yards against the Pats, I’ll bet Brown/Ricky Williams have a shot to do it as well.

Eddie Royal is a great play this week as the No. 2 versus Oakland, but I still like Brandon Marshall to make some things happen as well with his size.

Start your Colts from now until the end of the season. The schedule only gets easier, and this week, Peyton Manning faces a quarterback’s best friend, the San Diego Chargers.

And now, I … must … sleep.

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A Fool and His Money in Week 12

November 22nd, 2008

We haven’t had a lot of fancy talk here at the top of “A Fool and His Money” these last few weeks, but that’s because, just like any NFL franchise, we focus during this part of the season. The games start to matter more, and we’re ready to get down to business.

Let’s not waste any time.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Fools Take: STEELERS (-10.5) over Bengals

Nick says: Did the Bengals defense really hold the Eagles to 13 points in five quarters? The Steelers will win this game, and I’m guessing Cincinnati can’t even keep it close without Ocho Cinco in the lineup.

San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys

Fools Take: 49ers (+11) over COWBOYS

Nick says: Everything is hunky-dory now that Tony Romo is back in town, right? I’m not convinced he is the answer to all their problems. I expect a fired up San Francisco team to give the Cowboys all they can handle.

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens

Fools Take: RAVENS (-1.5) over Eagles

Nick says: Neither of these teams looked impressive at all last week, and a 1.5 line means it’s virtually a toss up since the NFL doesn’t allow ties. Isn’t that right, Donovan McNabb? I like Ray Lewis and the Ravens to rebound at home against Andy Reid and company.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

Fools Take: TITANS (-5.5) over Jets

Nick says: The Titans just keep getting it done. I think this might be the game in which the cookie crumbles though. The Jets have a solid defense, good running game and a QB who can occasionally catch fire and go into another zone altogether. I would definitely understand if people put some money on the Jets to win this one, but I’m sticking with the Titans until they lose. Like I said before, they just keep getting it done.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Fools Take: CHIEFS (+3) over Bills

Nick says: Buffalo has lost four in a row and are, all of a sudden, .500. The Chiefs have been playing teams close lately, but they still only have one win on their record to show for it. I can’t believe I’m saying it, but I like the Chiefs to win this one straight up.

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars

Fools Take: Vikings (+2.5) over JAGS

Nick says: It appears there are no in-between spreads this week. All the spreads are either a field goal or more than eight points. That doesn’t make this very easy. My gut says to go with the Vikings, and the fact that I’m getting a few points just confirms what I think.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Fools Take: Patriots (+2) over DOLPHINS $

Nick says: If there is one thing I’ve learned about Belichick, it’s that he is a vindictive S.O.B. I would not be surprised if Matt Walsh wakes up one day with the head of a horse in his bed. Belichick definitely did not enjoy being embarrassed by the Dolphins and will look to return the favor this week down in Miami. If Cassel continues playing with confidence, watch out.

Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams

Fools Take: Bears (-8.5) over RAMS $

Nick says: Kyle Orton played last week, but he was not the Kyle Orton that we saw pre-injury. I picked up Robbie Gould last week for my fantasy team, and his lousy three points cost me the game. I can’t imagine the Bears not being able to easily beat the Rams though, especially with Steven Jackson out another week.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Fools Take: Texans (+3) over BROWNS

Nick says: I don’t care how bad Sage Rosenfels or this line is. I refuse to pick the Browns with Blumpkin Quinn leading their team. I know Steve Slaton is already overachieving, but if he could just step it up a little more this week, I would appreciate it. Thanks, Steve.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Fools Take: Bucs (-9) over LIONS

Nick says: I guess I need to face the facts eventually that the Bucs are a legit team. I’ll give them a shot this week against lowly Detroit. Don’t make me regret it, Jeff Garcia.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Fools Take: BRONCOS (-9.5) over Raiders

Nick says: By now, everybody should know my feelings towards the Raiders. They are capable of covering spreads, just not on the road.

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: SEAHAWKS (+3.5) over Redskins
Nick Takes: Redskins (-3.5) over SEAHAWKS

In taking the Redskins, Nick says: This matchup is one game that could get the Redskins back on track or reignite the Seattle Seahawks out of the puddle of misery they’ve been wallowing in lately. Both teams need this game. Unfortunately, I think the Redskins are more talented, and the twelfth man in Seattle is no longer what it used to be.

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals

Fools Take: Giants (-3.5) over CARDINALS

Nick says: Quick, what is the Giants’ record this year? The answer is 9-1. That answer means the Giants are a pretty good football team. The Cardinals have not beaten a team with a record better than 6-4. The Cardinals may be good at beating the teams they are supposed to beat, but they have yet to beat a true playoff contender. They are going to have to prove it to me before they get a real vote of confidence. At least the game is in Arizona.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Panthers (+1) over FALCONS
Nick Takes: FALCONS (-1) over Panthers

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers

Fools Take: Colts (-3) over CHARGERS

Nick says: What happened to the Chargers this year? If the Chiefs had completed their two-point conversion two weeks ago, this team would be 3-7. Instead, they are in the weakest division in football and still have a chance to make the playoffs. They need this win to keep the dream alive, but the only problem is that Peyton Manning has started to heat up at the right time of the season. If we are lucky, we might get a few new commercials by the time the Super Bowl comes around.

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints

Fools Take: Packers (+2.5) over SAINTS $

Nick says: I thought last week was a statement game by the Packers. They destroyed the Bears. I like this team a lot more now that Ryan Grant is getting it going again.

Last Week:

Nick: 5-11 (Ouch!)

Current Standings after Week 11:

Nick: 81-73-2
Nick’s Locks: 3-2

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On the Wire: Week 12 Pickups and Waiver Wire Remains from Week 11

November 18th, 2008

By now, you’re probably headed in one of two directions with your team: prepping for the playoffs or moping in a puddle of your own tears.

If you’ve got a legit shot at the playoff picture, you want to start fortifying your team with the backups to all your studs and some average players who are positioned to do well in Weeks 14, 15 and 16 — or Weeks 15, 16, 17 if you are in one of those backwards Week 17 championship leagues.

You should also know that the rest of us hate you.

If you’re out of the playoff picture, your team probably disgusts you. You probably kicked a stud or two to the curb in anger, and you are likely to be A) not watching football the rest of the season or B) wallowing in your own self-pity and a half liter of whiskey. While that’s fun and all, don’t do that.

Instead, you should be grasping like a dead man for every waiver wire gem out there and abandoning your garbage players even if it’s for no other reason than to torment the better teams out there who could really use the slight upgrade. Do you know how satisfying it is to steal a stud’s backup from the playoff-bound owner that just lost him? Very.

Exhibit A: Warrick Dunn. More on that later.

Of course, if you are in a keeper or dynasty league, versus a traditional redraft league, you’ll want to start building your team for next year. Peruse the waiver wire for players like Josh Morgan and Donnie Avery if they’ve been dropped or never put on a roster. Injured studs like Tom Brady and Matt Schaub wouldn’t be bad to have around next season.

In short, never give up and never surrender. This is fantasy football. And that line is completely original.

Worth Claiming

Warrick Dunn, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Earnest Graham is out. We have to assume that Warrick Dunn takes the starting carries despite is back pains, but the Bucs also have Cadillac Williams waiting in the wings — and now saying that he is good to start this week. You also can’t forget about B.J. Askew, the fullback. Askew could vulture touchdowns from the aging Dunn and the recovering Caddy. If you’re picking one of these guys up because you just lost Graham, I’d go after them in this order: 1) Warrick Dunn 2) Carnell “Cadillac” Williams 3) B.J. Askew.

Sammy Morris, RB New England Patriots — If you had “Law Firm” on your roster, Morris is the guy you want to upgrade to now if he is a free agent in your league. Morris is the preferred touchdown back in New England as long as he is healthy, and despite his Thursday night performance, Cassel is not good enough to carry the team on his arm. He’s just not. The Patriots will run the ball in the final weeks of the season just like they did last year when the weather got frightful, and that makes Morris a top back when he resumes his full-time role in the offense.

Pierre Thomas, RB New Orleans Saints — It’s clear that Deuce McAllister isn’t the guy anymore, and Thomas saw a great deal of the work in Week 11. Reggie Bush should return in Week 12, but when Deuce gets suspended, which is almost inevitable at this point, you’ll want Thomas on your roster. If you have McAllister or Reggie Bush or had Aaron Stecker, make the switch. Stecker and McAllister are both droppable at this point.

Ones to Watch



Arizona Cardinals v Seattle Seahawks

So you’re desperate to find running back help? There’s still a few more to watch for late in the season and/or grab for depth.

J.J. Arrington, RB Arizona Cardinals — If you’re fortifying your roster or just looking for potential talent at the end the season, Arrington should be at the top of your list. As an added bonus, he awkwardly tries to kiss his teammates without taking his helmet off. He’s the second back in Arizona behind Tim Hightower, but he saw all the red-zone carries last week. If he does well against the Giants this week (see: unlikely), some project he could challenge Hightower for the starting role. I have my doubts that he will be a starter, but Arrington definitely warrants a spot on your roster if you have Hightower right now or could use a touchdown vulture in a potent offense. Apparently, Arizona just doesn’t let their starting running back take the touchdowns. That would be unfair to fantasy owners.

Gary Russell, RB Pittsburgh Steelers — He’s a long shot, but if Willie Parker has a hard time running in the short-yardage situations, look for Russell to steal some carries. He’s definitely a deep sleeper, but he could produce in matchups just like Leon Washington this season. He won’t be of much use to you in the playoffs unless he gets a lot of touchdowns though — Ravens in Week 15, Titans in Week 16.

Ray Rice, RB Baltimore Ravens — Don’t forget about the rookie if you are looking ahead to next season (dynasty or keeper) or if you are carrying Willis McGahee. Even if we don’t know which one of these two backs you’ll want to start each week, you’ll want to own both of them going into the playoffs if you plan on relying on the Baltimore running game. In all honesty, you might be better off looking elsewhere because the only great matchup remaining for the Ravens is the Bengals in Week 13.

Ignoring

Jerome Harrison, RB Cleveland Browns — Take away that sprint for 70+ yards, and Harrison would have had another quiet fantasy day. While Jamal Lewis is on the crap list in Cleveland for calling them all quitters, Harrison is not the guy you want to rely on in the fantasy playoffs. Pass.

Droppables

Deuce McAllister, RB New Orleans Saints — He’s losing his touches to Pierre Thomas while fighting a suspension and awaiting the return of Reggie Bush. He’s a depth option at best, and when the suspension comes down, you won’t want him on your roster anyway.

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Foolish Thoughts on Week 11: There’s no tying in football

November 17th, 2008

There’s no tying in football. None. You only get one sudden death overtime, and if no team can manage to score a single point, you’re done.

It’s bad enough that Andy Reid and the Eagles have a hard time managing the clock, but before taking the field to come away even with one of the worst teams in the NFL, did no one on the sidelines discuss that the game would be over at the end of the first overtime? You know, a tie?

I think knowing that they only had a few precious minutes to score would have come in handy when the Eagles were letting the time tick by, but maybe Andy Reid was just as tired of watching the miserable performance as we were.

Left guard Todd Herremans said hearing the referee declare the game a tie was an odd experience.

“I’ve never tied before. Definitely a strange feeling,” Herremans said. “Empty. It feels like the game’s unfinished. Neither team is happy with a tie.”

I’ll tell you what made me feel empty and strange, watching Brian Westbrook collect just 60 rushing yards against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

Please tell me why the Eagles would suddenly decide that their passing game was the answer against a team that is top-10 against the pass and in the bottom 10 against the run?

I should have spent the afternoon learning how to play the theremin.

Tarvaris Jackson wasn’t doing it for the Vikings during the first two weeks of the season and saw the bench so that the Vikings could give an older, wiser, smarter quarterback, Gus Frerotte, a shot.

Now that we’re halfway through the season with ol’ Gus, maybe they should go back to Tarvaris. Frerotte’s scoring in the end zone, but he’s still not a fantasy-worthy QB with nine picks in his last five games. Those Super Bowl predictions for the Vikings before this season were terribly misguided.

Why wasn’t anyone talking about the Cardinals instead? Oh yeah.

While you guys were busy salivating over Tyler Thigpen, Shaun Hill made his run at being the best backup quarterback to come in for the second half of the season. He made a pretty good case for himself with two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown against the Rams…in the first half.

Thiggy and Hill could save several fantasy teams here at the end of the season and in the playoffs. Both will probably be passing quite a bit in Weeks 14, 15 and 16.

The top quarterbacks from Week 11 are Matt Cassel, Shaun Hill and Kerry Collins. How messed up is that? Very.

Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler were supposed to amaze this week, but both QBs found other ways to win while having mediocre fantasy days. Thanks, jerks.

Even worse than the QB ranks for this week, the wide receiver ranks feature Justin Gage as the leading scorer. If every team tries to take away the Titans running game from here on out, the fantasy production on that team could flip to the passing game.

I’m not saying that I would pick up any of the Titans receivers, but it might be worth watching if you are sitting on a bunch of deadbeats at receiver.

Email I just received from Joseph Addai:

Well, hello there, everyone. Just wanted to let you know that I am back. Hope you enjoyed watching me go crazy on the Texans. You better not have benched me to wait and see what I would do! The rushing schedule from here looks fantastic.

Email I received minutes later from Ryan Grant:

What he said. Me, too. kthxbai.

Peyton Hillis got two touchdowns in his first appearance as the primary back for Denver. If you have to bet on a horse out of the Broncos’ stables of misfortune, he looks like the one to take.

Tatum Bell was seen eyeing Hillis’ bags after the game but decided to steal all of Selvin Young’s underwear instead.

The real story of the week was the kid drafted in the sixth round out of Arizona, Spencer Larsen, who goes both ways.

No, really, he started on both offense and defense as Denver’s middle linebacker and fullback. What did you think I was saying?

In fact, he started on special teams as well, so I guess that means that he went three ways. No comment.

The Dallas Cowboys at least have a little fire in them now that Romo has returned, but Marion Barber is the real gear that turned to get them a win in Washington last night. Going forward, they’ll have to develop the passing game, but owners of Tony Romo and Terrell Owens are going to have to wait a little longer.

If you own the Steelers defense, you’re probably really pissed that the forward pass penalty nullified the last-second fumble recovery for a touchdown. The refs are now saying it should have counted, but even if the NFL changes the score, will your fantasy system/site update the Steelers D/ST points?

Sometimes these things get left “as is” for fantasy owners if a change isn’t made until after Monday night. I expect some controversy to come out of this one, and I want my six points!

Looking ahead at Monday night, I only have one question. Which QB will look the worst: Miss Brady Quinn or Trent “Too Smart for His Own Consciousness” Edwards?

Can’t wait to find out.

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NFL Week 11 Foolish Live Blog – (Star) Shirts and Skins

November 16th, 2008

Will anyone ever beat the Titans? Is L.T. ever going to have another L.T.-like performance? How do you stop Brandon Jacobs? And Will the Cowboys return to dominance now that Tony Romo is back under center and firing at both Terrell Owens and Roy Williams?

It’s time for another foolish live blog as we watch the Dallas Cowboys take on the Washington Redskins tonight in an NFC East power struggle.

CoverItLive.com, the service we use for these live blogs, has added the ability to import a Twitter stream, so you can now follow me on Twitter from within the live blog window here.

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Week 11 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

November 14th, 2008

I didn’t rush to publish the starts and sits before Thursday Night Football because I wasn’t planning on mentioning any of Jets or Patriots this week. It’s times like these that you should follow me on twitter for any news updates or sit/start recommendations you might need.

Last night, I expected a defensive slugfest with a lot of Thomas Jones, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and some short passes to Wes Welker. Nothing to write home about, so nothing worth covering in Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders.

I pegged Brett Favre and Matt Cassel as bubble starts, but they’ve been matchup plays for several weeks now. I wrote off Randy Moss as a lost cause, even though you have to start a stud like him every week. While BenJarvus Green-Ellis wouldn’t do much, he’d get his carries and maybe a touchdown when they got in close.

Thomas Jones would continue to ride his hot streak behind such a solid offensive line. Wes Welker would be a solid play to collect yardage in this one, and if you wanted to take a chance on Jerricho Cotchery or Laveranues Coles, more power to you.

The fact that the weather might take a turn for the worst sold me on those predictions. Despite Brett Favre’s ability to succeed in harsh weather, it was going to be a running game. It would come down to who had time of possession, but it wouldn’t be close — Jets win.

Call it the Brett Favre factor, but sometimes Favre’s teams (and his opponents) can do a lot with just a little.

Your leading passer from Thursday night, Matt Cassel. With 400 yards passing and three touchdowns, Cassel might have just won a lot of battles for owners this weekend, but I’d really like to hear from anyone who started him (or even anyone in a league where someone started him).

In three out of my five redraft leagues, he’s a free agent on the waiver wire, and he only went off like that because I just dropped him this morning. Dick.

Do it again, and I owe you a coke, Cassel. (And not the kind you’re thinking, Matt Jones, so quit calling me.)

Hot Hands

Aaron Rodgers, QB Packers vs. Bears — I’m not afraid of the Bears passing defense, so they can feel free to stack the line for Ryan Grant like they did against the Titans. I’d still start Rodgers in what could be a lucrative return to his early-in-the-season success.

Matt Ryan, QB Falcons vs. Broncos — Against a potent passing offense, the Falcons are going to need big plays, and without Champ Bailey, the Broncos are very QB-friendly. As long as Michael Turner doesn’t explode in some kind of white-hot fantasy flame and rack up the touchdowns — it’s possible — Ryan is set for a good day.

Michael Turner, RB Falcons vs. Broncos — Turner has a delicious matchup against the weak Broncos run defense. And yes, I’m hedging my bets a little bit by recommending both the passing game and running game of the Falcons. Just like the Saints matchup last week, the Falcons could be primed to put up numbers in this one as well.

Joseph Addai, RB Colts vs. Texans — Assuming any rumor of his injury flaring up again are false, Addai is actually starting the chewy, cream-filling goodness of his schedule here at the end of the season. The Texans run defense has a bad habit of looking like Swiss cheese, and with the Colts offense hitting stride, I foresee a high ceiling for Addai this week.

Greg Jennings, WR Packers vs. Bears — You have to start Jennings even though he’s been through a rough stretch. Fortunately, he should break out of the hard times against a weak Bears defense. Surely, the Bears won’t stack up against the run and make Rodgers beat them through the air like they did against the Titans, but will they? Please?

Hines Ward, WR Steelers vs. Chargers – Even if I have my doubts about who is throwing the ball, I gotta have faith in Ward. He came up with over 100 yards last week while Ben was hurting, and he should be able to do that and more this week against the Chargers terrible pass defense, even if it’s Byron Leftwich under center.

Tony Scheffler, TE Broncos vs. Falcons — Welcome back, Scheff. If he is finally off the sideline bike this week and back to 100 percent, watch out for a big day. Cutler still really likes to get him the ball.

Jason Elam, K Falcons vs. Broncos — This one has revenge game written all over it, and the Broncos are best friends with any kicker they face. Elam will be wanting on the field as much as possible. What if this one comes down to a long kick for the win? Epic.

Bubble Boys

Ben Roethlisberger, QB Steelers vs. Chargers — Any QB is a good start against the Chargers, but Big Ben is banged up and out of it. I would hold off on starting him if you have acquired a decent backup. While he is likely to have a better game than his Week 10 performance, it’s unlikely that he’ll notch as many fantasy points as other QBs have against the Chargers.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB Seahawks vs. Cardinals — If he starts, he upgrades the entire Seahawks passing game and saves them from the Seneca Wallace experience, but how much rust is on that arm? And how healthy is his back? Several questions around “the Hassel” make him a risky play this week, even against a questionable pass defense like the Cardinals. Beating the Seahawks with Hasselbeck under center would be another statement game for the Cardinals to show their legit in the NFC West this year.

Larry Johnson, RB Chiefs vs. Saints — He returns, but how much of this offense is now in the hands of Tyler Thigpen? I am not sure how much we’ll see of Johnson, and I’m also have my doubts that we do see would be worth starting.

Willie Parker, RB Steelers vs. Chargers — Shoulder injury? What shoulder injury? Willie Parker don’t know ’bout no shoulder injury! Parker’s probably playing this week, but this start could definitely become a McGahee-esque phantom start in a hurry. Parker in a shoulder brace just doesn’t sound great to me, so even with this soft matchup, I like Mewelde Moore better for the Steelers run game this week.

Plaxico Burress, WR Giants vs. Ravens — I am not Plax fan. I’ll admit it. I’ve never liked him since I started playing fantasy football. Maybe it’s all these character problems we hear about, or maybe I just like Domenik Hixon better. Regardless, Plax is not putting up big numbers lately, so even when it looks like a great matchup for him, I question whether he’ll get the touchdown needed to push his fantasy score over the edge.

Bernard Berrian, WR Vikings vs. Buccaneers – And just like that, poof, the hot streak dies with a zero. I question whether he can do much better against a Bucs defense that shuts down more reliable receivers everyday.

Kellen Winslow, TE Browns vs. Bills — Not that you would sit him, but Winslow might see more coverage coming his way now that the Brady Quinn game plan has been exposed. He’ll produce adequate fantasy numbers for a tight end, but I’m not sure that he’ll produce elite numbers against a very aware Bills defense.

Cold Shoulders

Brady Quinn, QB Browns vs. Bills — He surprised me with his big day early in the Thursday nighter against the Broncos, but Quinn is still a young quarterback. Against a Bills defense with their playoff hopes on the line, he’ll probably regress a bit. You weren’t starting Quinn until a week ago, so it’s probably pretty likely that the other guy on your roster is looking better this week. If Quinn blows up in this game, I’ll give him credit for being more than I thought he was.

David Garrard, QB Jaguars vs. Titans — While he’s been putting it all out there, Garrard hasn’t gotten much help from his teammates. It’s hard to see them being much use in this one against the stingy Titans defense. Any big plays are likely to be countered by picks and other mistakes.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB Chargers vs. Steelers — L.T. hasn’t had his best weeks lately, and I don’t expect him to make a push for a top-five spot against the Steelers this week. Unless Big Ben’s arm, shoulder, and achy gallbladder go bionic in the next two days, they’ll need to slow a powerful Chargers offense and keep this game close. I think L.T. will have another disappointing week, so if you have another guy that you started while he was questionable/out, how about giving him a shot? Just think about it…

Willis McGahee, RB Ravens vs. Giants — I’m so angry that I drafted McGahee as a top RB in one of my leagues this year — my first and most likely last autodraft. His big game last week may have you thinking he could do some more good for you in this matchup. While the Ravens do run a lot, the Giants smash faces a lot. I don’t like it one bit, and considering how often the revolving door at RB swings in Baltimore, I don’t think McGahee warrants a start this week. He’s a flex option at best.

Vincent Jackson, WR Chargers vs. Steelers — He’ll ride that hot streak right into a poor day against the Steelers pass defense. Knock your expectations down a couple of notches if you are forced to start him.

Kevin Walter, WR Texans vs. Colts — Sage is under center against a strong pass defense. The Colts won’t let this one get away from them, so despite Sage’s great desire for revenge and redemption, I don’t think Walter will get a touchdown in this one. The Texans are better off looking to Steve Slaton.

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE Vikings vs. Buccaneers — The Bucs are going to take away big yardage plays here, and unless he scores a touchdown, Shiancoe will have another slow day. The run game should be the Vikings’ emphasis on offense in this one.

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