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How to Evaluate a Fantasy Football Trade

November 23rd, 2011

Every league has its issues, but I’ve never come across a league that didn’t have a problem evaluating trades. Whether you’re trying to figure out what to offer another team or debating whether a trade is “fair,” there is no perfect method.

Every league is different — different sizes, different scoring systems, different starting rosters. And every team manager evaluates players in their own way.

As a result, no one can agree completely on whether a deal is fair. That’s why every trade is a negotiation, both with the team you trade with and the league itself.

Of all the questions I talk about with fantasy football buddies, even the ones in other leagues, I get the most questions and discussion about the fairness of trades or whether a trade offer makes sense.

And so I thought it best to share a couple of tools that I use to evaluate trades in a completely neutral way. These tools are completely free, and once you try them, I think you’ll find they make assembling a trade offer easier as well. Rather than calling up a buddy and having to talk through trade options in your head, these tools can help you find what should be considering a good offer before you go to the bargaining table.

But before we get to the tools, a quick aside on vetoing trades.

WHEN TO VETO A TRADE

There are several schools of thought when it comes to vetoing a trade. The two extremes are the most common.

On the one hand are the folks who say a trade should never be vetoed as long as it’s agreed upon by both trade parties. In that system, it’s up to the league to kick out any members who abuse the trading system or who get taken advantage of in trades all too often.

I don’t believe in that practice much because it opens the floor for complaints and because throwing a member out of a league is never a painless process.

The other end of the spectrum requires the league to vote to approve all trades, which gives any league member the right to veto any trade for any reason. These leagues get riled up over the slightest trade variables, and it can really ruin a good fantasy football league when trade arguments get heated. League members will always abuse the veto.

I think the ideal system is somewhere in the middle, but here’s my general rule of thumb: you should be able to defend your trade to the rest of your league with solid reasoning. If you can’t do that, you shouldn’t be making the trade.

Buy lows and sell highs are going to happen. Really, they’re encouraged by even this fine fantasy site. So don’t get caught up in the heat of an argument over trades that may help a good team get better and lose sight of how a trade helps both teams.

That said, it’s often helpful to have a neutral third party to evaluate trades. Not only do a neutral opinion help you decide what a reasonable offer would be before you send it, but it’ll also help you look at a trade from an outsider perspective if you’re a commissioner or if you’re trying to decide if a veto is necessary.

2 TOOLS TO EVALUATE TRADES

Paid tools and league-site specific tools (Yahoo!, etc.) exist, but I have found these two free tools to be perfectly satisfactory. And for the purposes of this article, I’ll stick to the free ones that anyone can use.

1. My standby for the past two seasons has been KFFL’s Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer.

KFFL Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer

It’s not much in the looks department, but KFFL’s trade analyzer gets the job done. You simply enter the players on either side of a trade, choosing the range in the alphabet in which their first name falls to shorten the list of names to choose from at each spot.

Unlike other tools, KFFL does a little more thinking for you by also taking into consideration the starting roster and size of your league.

It feels a little more complete to provide this sort of info when evaluating a trade, but I still wish that KFFL would consider incorporating a FLEX position as an option on the roster. So far, I’ve simply ignored flex postions as a part of my starting roster when entering the form, but for leagues in which you start 2 RBs and a FLEX position, having that third running back to start in the FLEX can be extremely more valuable.

KFFL doesn’t ask for any type of scoring notes, but neither does the other tool I’ll talk about. It starts to get really tricky to look at trades once you start talking about various scoring systems, so I understand the reasoning behind not including it. But if it ever did…that would be awesome. If the league uses PPR scoring, for example, wide receivers would be much more valuable.

I really do like what KFFL brings to the table. The output they give to evaluate a trade tells you not only the most valuable pieces being exchanged, but who’s “winning” the trade and how severe the difference is. In the end, KFFL will give you a definitive answer on whether Team 1 or Team 2 should reject the trade or approve of it as a very fail deal.

KFFL Trade Analyzer Output

Analysis of Frank Gore for Darren McFadden and Plaxico Burress

In my experience, KFFL tends to be pretty conservative on how it rates players, not giving much credit to players on the rise as compared to a stud who’s not performing up to their expected level. But I still love you, KFFL. Good work.

2. The new kid on the block that I’ve also been using late this season is Fantasy Football Nerd’s Trade Analyzer.

Fantasy Football Nerd Trade Analzyer (Beta)

It’s only in beta — and to be honest, maybe I shouldn’t be telling you about it yet — but I already find what Fantasy Football Nerd is building very useful.

FFN’s tool is much faster to input players with a search box and arrow buttons to place a player on either side of an offer. Once players are entered, the analyze button gives you an almost instant answer on who has the better end of the deal.

Since Fantasy Football Nerd doesn’t take into consideration any data on league size or starting positions, it’s hard to say that its trade values are as complete as KFFL’s trade tool, but it is nice to get the quick answer, even if it’s a quick and dirty answer.

I also like that they give a numerical value on exactly how much more valuable the winning side of the trade is.

Fantasy Football Nerd Trade Analyzer Output

Sample analysis of trade of Frank Gore for Darren McFadden and Plaxico Burress

Also on the plus side, the Fantasy Football Nerd tool lets you know that the winning side is getting “the better end of the trade by XX points over the course of the rest of the season.” So you know that their trade tool is looking at how a player will do the rest of the season and not just how they are currently valued. The rest-of-the-season (ROS) value is always what I care about more in a trade than how much a player is worth at that given moment.

Then again, some people may not want something like this out there giving away that “buy low” and “sell high” edge.

HOW TO USE THESE TOOLS

I find myself using both of these tools on a regular basis to put together and judge trades. Fantasy Football Nerd’s analyzer is a nice, quick way to build a trade when you’re trying to put together an offer, and once you’ve got the basic idea together, KFFL is what I feel is the most fair way of judging whether the other owner will think you’re crazy or not for sending it.

KFFL’s analyzer is also the best indicator as to whether the other owners in your league will burn you alive for making that trade. But don’t take it as gospel since KFFL can be a little stingy when it comes to studs versus up-and-comers, as I said before.

As a commish, I’d make KFFL’s Trade Analyzer a regular part of my tool set. When the league starts to get upset about a particular trade, it can sometimes quiet the masses by providing a soothing, “This trade is fair” response. It can also help in challenging an owner to defend a trade when it seems more sloppily assembled.

If you can’t defend a trade by discussing player values, you don’t deserve it, and these tools should help you make a great deal.

For those of you not so concerned about fairness as you are about winning (okay, all of us), I’d definitely bookmark Fantasy Football Nerd’s Analyzer to quickly survey any trade offers you receive and figure out whether to accept.

While it’s in beta now, the FFN analyzer is only going to get better, and Fantasy Football Nerd has already demonstrated a great ability to synthesize a number of opinions and give an unbiased consensus opinion through their weekly rankings.

TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK

Neither of these tools are perfect, and as each evolves, I’d love to hear your feedback on which works best and if you have any interesting ways of using them. I’d also like to hear about any other tools you use when evaluating trades or putting together a trade package. Tell me all about them below in the comments or drop me a note.

Happy trading!

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This Kevin Smith is not Too Fat to Fly in Week 12 Pickups

November 22nd, 2011

I can’t be certain that I covered all of this week’s best waiver wire grabs because, to be honest, after Adrian Peterson went down and rode out of the stadium on a cart, I went into shock and then into a hysterical state from which I am only now emerging. Is Twilight still a thing? Should I wait longer before I come back?

No one likes to see their fantasy stud go out on a cart, especially when we’re just three weeks away from playoffs. As a Peterson owner, I could only think back to last year when my first-round pick Frank Gore did basically the same thing to my already crippled fantasy team.

Things can get very cruel just before the fantasy playoffs.

It looks like All Day’s going to miss at least one game — and hopefully, ONLY one game. But the high ankle sprain shouldn’t keep him from helping fantasy teams down the stretch. If you’ve secured a playoff spot, you should be safe waiting on A.P. If not…well, you might just want to make liberal use of this button and look for better help than Toby Gerhart, who was pretty miserable in place of Peterson on Sunday.

Of course, the title of our waiver wire post this week is in reference to the Silent Bob “Too Fat to Fly” incident, in case you didn’t get it. Get out your cave, buddy! Now back to the pickups…

This week’s waiver wire is a little different. Rather than run down a full list of all the top grabs, we’ll look to fill your needs at each position for the playoffs.

First, if you are in need of a quarterback…

ANDY DALTON (Bengals)
Even without A.J. Green, Dalton’s managed to rack up yardage and multiple scores against tough defensive opponents. The schedule gets easier the rest of the way. If your quarterback isn’t cutting it, you might trust your playoff production to this rookie, but he’ll only help you so much.

MATT MOORE (Dolphins)
Truly risky, Moore has put together several strong performances with the Dolphins finding their groove these last few weeks. His playoff schedule isn’t the best, but he has gotten hot at just the right time. If you’ve started someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick up to this point, Moore may be worth throwing into your lineup, but I’m never going to recommend benching a true stud option for Moore.

If you need a running back…

KEVIN SMITH (Lions)
He doesn’t get to face the Panthers every week, but Week 11 was a truly phenomenal performance by “the best story in the NFL.” He’s clearly the Lions’ answer at running back for the playoff push. The Lions are still a pass-first team, but they get down the field enough to give Smith some chances to score on the ground no matter the opponent. Not to mention, Smith has good enough hands to be a part of that mighty Lions passing game. If and when Jahvid Best returns, he will likely share touches with Kevin Smith, who should be this week’s first overall on the waiver wire. Don’t sit on your waiver pick or FAAB money this week, especially not if you need help at running back. Just like Tebow and Denarius Moore, Smith’s worth betting on this late in the season. It’s unlikely you’ll see another quality starting running back on the waiver wire unless we see some more injuries.

DONALD BROWN (Colts)
Speaking of the Panthers, the Colts face their terrible run defense this week, which means Brown is next in line for a big day running all over them. There’s some discussion that Joseph Addai could return this week. I’m not sure that I buy that. Brown’s been the most effective Indy running back in Addai’s absence, and it would be more beneficial at this point in the season for the Colts to continue to evaluate their young prospects, Brown and Delone Carter, rather than throw Addai back onto the field if he’s not completely 100 percent. If Brown gets the start against the Panthers, his ceiling could be something Kevin Smith-like, but it’s more likely he gives you a quality one-week fill for Adrian Peterson.

JOE MCKNIGHT (Jets)
Without Shonn Greene, the Jets running game actually looked a bit more dynamic with McKnight leading the way. He’s a better pass catcher than Greene and has younger legs than LaDainian Tomlinson. Greene should be back on the field this week, but McKnight should still, at the very least, keep the change-of-pace role until L.T.’s back to full health. I’d still stash McKnight just in case he earns more touches.

TOBY GERHART (Vikings)
If you couldn’t tell by how far down this list Toby is, I don’t have much faith in him producing while Adrian Peterson’s out. Peterson should only miss one or two games, and replacing Peterson in Week 11, Gerhart didn’t do much of anything. I also expect Percy Harvin to have a larger role running the ball in A.P.’s absence. The fact that the Vikings face the Falcons run defense in Week 12 makes me even less enthusiastic about Gerhart. If you’re a Peterson owner, you need to grab Gerhart just to cover yourself through A.P.’s injury, but if someone wants to outbid you for his services, let them. I wouldn’t consider starting Gerhart in Week 12 if I had any better options, but he could be worth the stash if he gets the call again in Week 13 against the Broncos.

C.J. SPILLER (Bills)
The Buffalo offense is just miserable, and the only bright spot has been Fred Jackson. Without him, I don’t have much faith that Spiller can get it done, but he would see plenty of work if Jackson sits out Week 12. Moving forward, Spiller could have greater value seeing more time in the slot after the Bills lost Donald Jones on Sunday. He’s better catching passes than rushing for now in this Buffalo offense.

If you need a wide receiver…

DENARIUS MOORE (Raiders)
The receiving talent is a little harder to come by, but if your league passed on Moore or his owner gave up on him when he put up a dud on Sunday, go out and get him. The Raiders still have one of the best schedules to pass on, and even though they’re a run-first team, Palmer should look Moore’s way a few more times this year.

VICTOR CRUZ (Giants)
Another one that might still be out there in a few leagues, Cruz looks like Manning’s favorite target when he’s facing pressure or needs a big play. The Giants will be looking for a few more of those as their schedule continues to get tougher.

PERCY HARVIN (Vikings)
Harvin saw more touches after Peterson’s injury and was able to put up almost 100 total yards and a score. More than likely playing from behind against the Falcons in Week 12, the Vikings should look his way often enough to make him a worthy play.

TORREY SMITH (Ravens)
Smith’s been a risky start ever since his breakout performance, but he’s worth the risk when the matchup fits because his ceiling is so high (165 yards and a score in Week 11). Weaker playoff teams might want to throw him out there in Week 14 against Indy for a spark.

RILEY COOPER (Eagles)
If Vince Young gets another start, he could once again look Cooper’s way. They’ve obviously developed a nice chemistry playing with the second stringers this year, and Cooper filled in admirably for Jeremy Maclin once he got into the swing of things.

JEROME SIMPSON (Bengals)
A.J. Green should be able to go in Week 12, but Simpson’s had his fair share of good games even with Green taking the No. 1 role from him. He’s a matchup play for the fantasy playoffs.

JABAR GAFFNEY (Redskins)
Rex Grossman was surprisingly competent against the Cowboys in Week 11, which leaves me to speculate that Gaffney will have a few more good games before the year is out, at least until Santana Moss, a worthy stash himself, returns from his injury.

If you need a tight end…

Tight end is deep, but few are rising to the top late in the season. If Kellen Winslow was dropped, he’s worth grabbing this week as the Bucs look to get back on track to end the year. Otherwise, look to Brent Celek, Jared Cook, or Jake Ballard, three tight ends who could finish the year stronger than they started it.

If you need a kicker…

Come on, man.

If you need a defense…

TEXANS D/ST
If anyone dropped them during their bye, pick them up immediately. Houston currently has the No. 1 defense in the NFL, and this week, they get the Jaguars. They should continue to put up fantasy points.

PATRIOTS D/ST
New England has one of the easiest schedules in the league after they face the Eagles this weekend, and their defense, for all its injuries, seems like it’s coming together. Assuming the pass rush and interceptions continue, Week 12 might be your last chance to score the Patriots D/ST for the stretch run.

PANTHERS D/ST
It’s never a bad idea to play the D/ST that faces the Colts, even if they have no run defense to speak of. The Panthers still managed positive points last week while getting blown apart by the Lions.

FALCONS D/ST
Atlanta gets to face the potentially Adrian Peterson-less Vikings this week. It shouldn’t be too hard of an assignment for them. Atlanta has a very underrated run defense.

BRONCOS D/ST
Tebowmania has masked how well the Broncos defense has been since Week 9 against Oakland. I have a hard time trusting them, but I love them as a sleeper this week against the interception-prone Philip Rivers, who may have lost another offensive linemen just this past Sunday. If you’re short on options, consider taking a chance on Denver.

Any other questions/comments, you know what to do. Leave them in the comments or hit me up on Twitter.

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Moore to live for in Week 11 Pickups

November 16th, 2011

It’s getting to be that time. The fantasy playoffs are near. Records are shaking out. If you’re set to make a deep playoff run, you should be reshaping your team to play it’s best fantasy football in Weeks 14-16.

Of course, that’s assuming you’re all playing championship games in Week 16, which is the only week you should be, but if that’s not the way your league commish scheduled playoffs, it’s too late to change that until next season.

If you’re using a FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) system for the waiver wire (bidding on players every week to see who gets to acquire them), now’s the time to bid the most money for the players who could really help you down the stretch. Trim the fat and drop any players who haven’t earned their spot on your roster. Go big or go home with the players who should help you the most if they pan out.

As we continue with a little late season advice, make sure you don’t make any of the common mistakes. Scott Pianowski wrote up a great piece earlier this week that touches on most of them, but it boils down to this: Play smart and loose. You’ll make a bad trade or two before you’re done playing fantasy football. But no one remembers the bad trade when you hold up the trophy.

Also consider these matchup notes for Weeks 15 and 16 highlighted by Adam Levitan as you go about your roster moves this week.

MARSHAWN LYNCH (Seahawks)

It’s highly unlikely that Lynch is sitting out on a waiver wire somewhere at this point in the season. But then again, there’s always a chance. We haven’t seen a lot of BEAST MODE this season, but Lynch’s usage makes him a valuable RB2 prospect to end the season. In the next four weeks, he gets to face the Rams twice and the Redskins, which should provide some nice fantasy points before he finishes the fantasy playoffs by getting stonewalled by the Bears and 49ers.

BEN TATE (Texans)

Another just in case, Tate has been as productive as most of the starting backs in the league while serving as Arian Foster’s No. 2. Now that Matt Leinart is taking the reigns in Houston, the Texans might rely on the run even more, which would provide Tate with more opportunities to shine. If someone threw Tate back after Foster got healthy, it’s time someone snatched him back up.

DENARIUS MOORE (Raiders)

The Raiders passing game is flourishing once again under Carson Palmer, and their remaining games gives them one of the best schedules to throw on. Jacoby Ford left the Week 10 contest against the Chargers with an injury, and Moore reaped the benefits. He should continue to see a healthy dose of targets from Palmer, and I consider him the No. 1 priority on the waiver wire for anyone in need of help at wide receiver. He could be a solid WR2, the type of find that could carry you through to a fantasy championship with several big weeks.

KENDALL HUNTER (49ers)

Frank Gore sat out in Week 10 with multiple injuries while Hunter carried the load and sealed the game for the 49ers. Gore and his coaches are saying that he should be fine to play in Week 11, but they’re also saying they intend to lighten his load moving forward to keep him fresh for the playoffs. And once the playoffs are a lock, the 49ers may even rest their workhorse back. The end result of all this: Hunter has value the rest of the way.

ED DICKSON (Ravens)

While he’s been getting plenty of targets all year, Dickson finally did something significant with them in Week 10, scoring twice. That was probably Dickson’s best game of the season, but if you’re still searching for a tight end with a pulse, Dickson could be your guy.

VINCE YOUNG (Eagles)

Michael Vick has two broken ribs. If he can’t go, Vince Young would get the start against the G-men this week. It’s not an ideal matchup, but Young’s had fantasy value in the past since he can score fantasy points with both his arm and his leg. Plus, he’s never benefited from the type of quarterback-friendly offense Andy Reid has constructed in Philly. Whether you own Vick or not, Young’s a worthy gamble going into Week 11 until we know whether Vick will play or not.

LANCE BALL (Broncos)

Willis McGahee is banged up, and Knowshon Moreno is on IR. Ball could get the start if McGahee can’t go on Thursday, and McGahee hasn’t yet gotten on the practice field. Ball should have value either way since the Broncos rely so heavily on the running game, but don’t expect the yards to come easy against the Jets.

CHRIS OGBONNAYA (Browns)

Peyton Hillis has already been ruled out for Week 11, which leaves Ogbonnaya in position to start again for the Browns. Ogbonnaya gets very little love from fantasy circles because he lacks talent, even though he was productive as a running back for the Texas Longhorns in college. He racked up the yards in Week 10 against the Rams, but the Jags present more of a challenge. Still, he’s worth adding since he might be the running back to own in Cleveland for the rest of the year.

DAMIAN WILLIAMS (Titans)

Since Damian Williams entered the starting lineup, Matt Hasselbeck has looked his way. While Williams is no Kenny Britt, he’s scored in his last two games and might be emerging for the stretch run. He’s definitely worth a stash if you’re hunting for a late season gem to help you in the playoffs.

HARRY DOUGLAS (Falcons)

Julio Jones left with an injury in Week 10 and seemed ready to return if the trainers had let him. In his place, Douglas received a showering of targets from Matt Ryan. Don’t expect the targets to continue unless Jones is sidelined again in Week 11. But if he is, Douglas is your guy.

VINCENT BROWN (Chargers)

Much like Torrey Smith of the Ravens, it’s hard to rely on these young wide receivers that splash onto the scene with big plays. Brown could just as easily disappear in Week 11, especially with the season Philip Rivers has had. But until Malcom Floyd is healthy, Brown should continue to fill in opposite Vincent Jackson (should we call him “The Other Vincent” yet?). The Chargers usually right the ship for a playoff run every year. Assuming that happens, Brown has the potential to produce just like Jackson and the rest of this Charger offense.

JACOB TAMME (Colts)

You should know what you’re getting with the Colts this season — yards but no scoring. Tamme will take Dallas Clark’s place in this offense until he’s well enough to return, but the tight end pool is deep enough that you shouldn’t have to reach for him at this point in the season. Besides, many of his targets came when Dan Orlovsky entered the game when it was already out of hand for Curtis Painter.

TASHARD CHOICE (Redskins)

I don’t like recommending any Redskins player with Shanahan in full tinker mode, but the former Cowboys running back claims to be healthy and able to contribute in Week 11. That means he has the potential to start and ruin your fantasy week if you were counting on Roy Helu or, even worse, Ryan Torain. Consider this more of a warning that Choice could be in play than a recommendation to go add him to your roster.

Fill in D/STs: I like both the Jaguars (vs. Browns) and Patriots (vs. Cassel-less Chiefs) this week to have a solid outing as D/STs.

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The Tashard Choice Is Yours in Week 10 Pickups

November 9th, 2011

I have a lot of fantasy football to catch up on since I entered the married world, including several episodes of The League to clean off the DVR, but I’ll get right to it this week.

When it comes to free agents, I was lucky in that no real breakout candidates emerged in my absence. We have just a few names to talk about this week other than the ones we’ve previously discussed.

As bye weeks end, you’ll want to start pruning the low-end starters from your roster and stashing high-ceiling players like Ben Tate, Antonio Brown, and Ronnie Brown for the fantasy playoffs. If starters are injured, you’ll be the one to benefit down the stretch.

LAURENT ROBINSON (Cowboys)

Miles Austin has another gimpy hamstring, which opens the door for even more contributions from Laurent Robinson in this Dallas offense. Tony Romo already trusts him in key situations, but he’ll be an even nicer fantasy play for the next 2-4 weeks, especially with the schedule Dallas has ahead.

ANTONIO BROWN (Steelers)

Emmanuel Sanders had to have surgery and lost all his potential fantasy value for the rest of at least the regular fantasy season. When you drop Sanders, be sure to grab Brown if no one else in your league owns him. He should start opposite Mike Wallace in the Steelers’ offense and has shown plenty of big-play ability.

ROY HELU (Redskins)

Shanahan’s running back of choice is Helu (at least for now). Shanahan gave him all the touches in Week 9, and Ryan Torain should only serve as his change-of-pace back. As long as Helu continues to stay out of the Shanny doghouse, he could be very productive. John Beck checked down to him early and often in Week 9, and while that’s bad news for the Redskins, it’s good news for fantasy owners.

TASHARD CHOICE (Redskins)

I would be remiss if I plugged Helu without also reminding you that Choice, when healthy, could get a piece of the Redskins backfield. He hasn’t looked like the same back since filling in for the injured Felix Jones and Marion Barber for the Cowboys two seasons ago, but Shanahan might make the most of him. Whether you own Helu or not, we can’t be sure how Choice will fit into this backfield yet. He could play as soon as this week.

JACOBY FORD (Raiders)

Ford demonstrated his speed in Week 9 and got a lot of attention from Carson Palmer while Darrius Heyward-Bey warmed the bench. This role seems more like a trend than a fluke, so I’d jump on Ford now if you’re in need of a WR3.

EARL BENNETT (Bears)

Jay Cutler showered his favorite receiver with plenty of third-down passes against the Eagles, and Bennett came through on every one of them. It’s hard to say he’ll have this kind of production every week, but clearly, he’s the receiver to own in Chicago. He could be a nice WR3 the rest of the way.

AUSTIN PETTIS (Rams)

Unfortunately for the Rams, rookie Greg Salas will miss the rest of the season after injuring his leg in Week 9. Fellow rookie Austin Pettis should fill the role as St. Louis’ slot receiver, and Bradford could look his way as much as he did Salas’. This Rams offense is not scoring a lot of points, but we still haven’t seen Sam Bradford at 100 percent with his new No. 1 Brandon Lloyd. Not to mention, the Rams schedule gets much easier the rest of the season. Pettis could have WR3 value if he grows into the slot role as Salas did.

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Bye Week. No, really, we’re taking a bye week.

October 22nd, 2011

We’re taking a bye week (or two) here at Fantasy Football Fools as I go on IR to have a ball and chain attached.

That’s right. I’m getting married this weekend.

So we’re taking a two-week “bye week” while I’m getting hitched and honeymooning. I won’t have access to the Internet or Twitter, but hopefully, my fantasy teams will tough it out.

Best of luck to all your fantasy teams in my absence. I know you all have got what it takes to win.

I’ll see you all when I’m no longer single.

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Posted in Foolish Thoughts

Thank you Murray much, Week 7 Pickups

October 18th, 2011

If you were hurting for a tight end, Week 7 is the week to snatch one up off the waiver wire. Don’t sleep on these options.

Tight End Party

FRED DAVIS (Redskins)
With Chris Cooley shattering his finger (ouch) on Sunday, Davis stands to see a lot more passes his way in this Redskins’ offense. Assuming John Beck takes over, he may have less of a tendency to throw a cannon downfield like Rex Grossman was prone to do.

JAKE BALLARD (Giants)
The Giants found themselves a tight end this season. After two solid weeks of top-10 production, Ballard is a must-add for any tight end needy team. He’s on bye this week, which might make him more costly to grab in a popular bye week, but I believe he’ll be worth the sacrifice.

LANCE KENDRICKS (Rams)
An early-season sleeper of mine, Kendricks finally flipped the switch this week and had a nice game with 70+ yards. We, of course, would like to see more out of him before we buy-in completely again, but he’ll cost you a lot more to add once he goes off for a big game. We’ll have to see how Brandon Lloyd changes the passing game in St. Louis and how much of a drop it takes while A.J. Feeley fills in for Sam Bradford (high ankle sprain).

Rest of the Field

DEMARCO MURRAY (Cowboys)
Felix Jones will miss a few weeks with a high ankle sprain, and in his absence, Murray got the majority of carries. He’ll likely share time with Tashard Choice, but he faces a very nice schedule, starting with the Rams in Week 7.

CARSON PALMER (Bengals…RAIDERS!)
It looks like the Raiders have managed to pry Palmer out of the Bengals’ hands. While he’s faded as a starter in recent years, Palmer’s a big upgrade over Kyle Boller and possibly even an upgrade over Jason Campbell. We can’t be sure how he’ll do until we see him hit the field, but with Oakland’s receiving talents (Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford, and Denarius Moore) are hitting their stride and a running game to take the pressure off him, Palmer could have immediate QB2 value. I’d stash him for now until we know the trade is final and until we see him in real game action.

GREG LITTLE (Browns)
He started for the first time on Sunday, and Colt McCoy targeted him plenty. While the Browns aren’t the most potent of offenses, it never hurts to own a team’s No. 1 guy.

JEROME SIMPSON (Bengals)
A.J. Green’s getting a lot of attention in Cincinnati, but Simpson’s had a couple of nice weeks as well. If you’re looking for a WR3 with upside, take a chance on Simpson.

ARRELIOUS BENN (Bucs)
Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams has been a disappointment thus far, as has the entire Bucs’ passing game. But Benn’s shown promise with the few touches he’s received. In the last two weeks, he scored big against the Saints and had another near touchdown negated by penalty. He had a quiet first few weeks as he was returning from his injury last season, but now his run after the catch ability looks 100 percent. If you’re looking for a WR3 on the rise, Benn’s looking like a nice grab. Just note that he’s a boom-bust guy. You’ll have to play matchups with him.

MARK CLAYTON / DANARIO ALEXANDER (Rams)
Brandon Lloyd’s arrival in St. Louis makes Mark Clayton’s return from the PUP a tad less exciting. It also demotes Danario Alexander to a specialty role again. Still, both receivers should find a way to have an impact, and the Rams schedule gets easier down the stretch. Clayton was Sam Bradford’s favorite target before his injury last season, but unfortunately, it’ll be A.J. Feeley under center for several weeks until Bradford’s back on the field. We can’t be sure who Feeley will favor, but it’s likely we see Lloyd and Clayton as the starters in St. Louis after a few weeks. Alexander, for now, is back to being a stash in redraft until we know how much he’ll see the field with these two back, but he’s still got a huge ceiling when he’s healthy.

DEMARYIUS THOMAS (Broncos)
With Lloyd moving on to the Rams, Thomas should become a starter alongside Eric Decker. He’s returning from a broken finger he suffered in the preseason. Thomas has had a hard time staying on the field, but his measurables make him a worthy gamble. I wouldn’t drop Eric Decker for him, but I’d gladly stash him and hope for the best if all other waiver wire options were taken.

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The League S03E02: The Sukkah never trades

October 16th, 2011

Trades. Every league wants trades. They keep the league competitive and promote inspired conversation between league members. But it’s very difficult to maintain the culture that allows for them within a league because they are the most dangerous version of in-season gambling.

Play a trade well…and you’ll have the envy and hatred of the rest of your league. You’re team will be better, stronger, and more playoff-bound, but you’ll have to endure plenty of ridicule from those who feel you unfairly improved your team through a trade.

And make the wrong play? Well, if you lose on a trade, you’re just going to be apologizing for the rest of season to your league as they lose to the monstrosity of a team you allowed your trade partner to create.

Much like the delicate rain forest ecosystem, trading is hard to sustain. Eventually, the trading parties dry up. Fewer teams are willing to trade, and those that want to trade fear getting screwed by the other party or being mocked by the rest of the league for making a bad deal.

It’s a true test to the type of league you have if you can pull your league out of that nosedive to no-trade land. And this is where we find the league in the second episode.

When we last left the league, they were locked out of their own draft while Dirty Randy and Rafi filmed a porn inside Andre’s apartment. Now they have to deal with the consequences.

Jenny’s hitting the streets (and park bench advertisements) again as a real estate agent. Ruxin’s tasked with getting Baby Geoffrey into the best Jewish prep school.

That leaves Pete tasked with successfully fixing the league by encouraging trades to balance the teams they autodrafted. But no one trusts Pete…or anyone else in the league, and why would they when your league is tossing out trades like Dwayne Bowe for Owen Daniels or Owen Daniels for LeSean McCoy and Tolbert (A little much, no?).

Unfortunately for Jenny, her first park bench ad for her return to the real estate game becomes the bed and motorboat of choice of a homeless man. Jenny tasks Kevin with evicting him, but Kevin confessing to the homeless dude that it was “that time of the month” only makes things worse.

Kevin ends up following Ruxin’s example to get the problem solved, which is never a good way to solve a problem and come out clean.

Since the draft, Andre’s noticed a few strange things in his apartment…but he hasn’t caught on to what went on in there. Even though the rest of the league is disgusted to even enter his place, he only picks up on the hints when he contracts thrush through “immaculate infection.”

Andre threatens the league with an offer: he’ll trade any player to anyone who’ll give him info about what went on in his apartment during the draft.

The ultimatum scares Kevin, always the weakest of the league, as he fears Ruxin will cave to Andre about “Sexfest 2011″ to benefit from the trade. And upon hearing what the rest of the league did, Andre might, in anger, confess to Ruxin that the draft order was falsified when his name was drawn first overall.

The fear leads Kevin to allow Ruxin to throw his Sukkot, a Jewish harvest festival, in Kevin’s own backyard. Ruxin’s own house had to be ruled out because he was captured by Google Earth spray-painting a swastika on a pothole to get the city to fix it.

The Sukkot starts to get a little more like Festivus when Pete proposes an airing of grievances to reestablish trust in the league (even though the lies continue).

Once the ruse of truthliness is complete, Pete launches into an eight-way trade proposal, balancing the teams and filling all the position holes the autodraft created. It’s actually quite impressive. Bravo, Pete. Bra-vo.

In the process of Pete’s trade genius-ary, we get a glimpse of the full league roster, including the strangers we’ve never seen before. There’s Jenny, Taco, Kevin, Pete, Ruxin, and Andre plus the mysterious twosome of Chuck and Ted.

Will we ever meet Chuck? Or Ted? One can only hope they make as great a first impression as Dirty Randy…and they better have really good excuses for drafting from afar all these years. Live drafts are the only way to fly.

With the fantasy football work done, the league gets to the Sukkot-ing, but the party is destined to fail as soon as everyone sees how deeply involved Taco is. He’s made plans to host “Taccot,” his own combination Jewish festival and shroom rave after the Sukkot in the same tent, but he’s not content to keep the party elements at bay until the rave begins.

For starters, he volunteers his weed as the “plants” for the lulav tradition in the Sukkot ceremony, despite Ruxin’s groans. Oh, the bitter herb. Luckily, the representative from the Jewish prep school Ruxin is trying to impress doesn’t realize what she’s working with during the ceremony.

Meanwhile, the trades have all gone through. Pete’s happy to see that everyone’s teams have improved, but Kevin comes to tell him that Andre has declined his trade with Pete. Andre wants to take Pete’s place as “patient zero” of the league this year, the one who benefits from others misplaced trust, and he does so by screwing the master himself.

As Taco’s intruding on the festivities continues, Taco sends Ellie to put a “sukkah” DVD that he made in honor of the festival, we’re smart enough to know where this is going.

Instead of Taco’s DVD, Ellie finds the first copy of the “Sacko” porn Dirty Randy filmed in Andre’s apartment, and Ellie plays it for the masses at the Jewish ceremony on the outdoor screen.

Ruxin’s hopes of Geoffrey going to private school? Ruined. At least he’ll be able to hold his own in the preschool fantasy league.

Memorable quotes from Episode 2:

TACO: “What if she’s in a terrible accident one day, and someone has to tell them how to put her titties back together?”

TACO: “Woah! He is motorboating those fakies.”

TACO: “It’s like a Jewish Bonnaroo?”

RUXIN: “Yes, minus the patchouli and underlying sadness.”

RUXIN: “I’ve called the city 100 times, but they do not care about the plight of the upper-middle class white suburban male at all.”

KEVIN: “We do not get our periods at the same time.”

RUXIN: “Does a man ever tire of looking at the sunrise…when he’s balls deep in Kevin?”

RUXIN: “It’s like you trolling around the bar looking for a hand jibber, every once in a while, someone says ‘yes.’”

TACO: “I was in the room. There was so much semen.”

RUXIN: “And second, if I did look inward, which I won’t, I think we would find that my Judaism is the least objectionable thing about me.”

JENNY: “Problem plus swastika equals problem solved.”
RUXIN: “Tell that to the Jews.”

ANDRE: “This is not about me. I am the accuser. ‘Cause I know there be a witch in this town, and you’re all suspects, you cowpokes. And this dark city of Gotham’s got a gloomy cloud…’cause I’m gonna ride my horse right down Main Street.”

HOMELESS GUY: “She’s the floating muse, a dreamscape of femininity.”

KEVIN: “I’m not going to be trade-raped by my own wife.”
JENNY: “I’d be so gentle.”

KEVIN: “Maybe he’s like a menstrual medium.”

JENNY: “Are your brain and mouth connected, Kevin?”
KEVIN: “Sometimes.”

TACO: “Taccot is an ideal plane of existence where the 12 tribes of Israel come together with people who are high on mushrooms and groove to Aphex Twin.”

What is Aphex Twin, you ask? This…

PETE: “We’ve crossed the distrust horizon into the land of no trades.”

JENNY: “You are the patient zero of distrust, Pete.”

RUXIN: “Wait — an eight-way? But Andre’s sister’s not even here.”

TACO: “I like kickers. They’re the toughest.”

ANDRE: “It’s like a useless Good Will Hunting.”

RUXIN: “I’m keeping her and her family of conquistadors away until Geoffrey’s acceptance into the school.”

ANDRE: “I didn’t realize that sukkah was a high holy day.”

JENNY: “You promise me. Never smoke the lulav, okay?”

TACO: “Let’s get blazed, mother-sukkahs!”

KEVIN: “‘I’m Baby Geoffrey Ruxin. I’m in the cul-de-sac, son!’”

And just because you’ve been good, here’s the full version of Ruxin’s Shiva Bowl Shuffle from the season premiere.

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Tim Tebowing is half the Battle in the Week 6 Pickups

October 12th, 2011

The big names are Tim Tebow and Jackie Battle this week, but it’s really all about Tebow. He was a stud when he got the chance to start last season. Time for him to do it again.

This week’s pickups are listed in the order I’d try to acquire them. Feel free to ask any add/drop questions in the comments below.

Tim Tebow (Broncos)

He was the top quarterback in fantasy through the final weeks of last season because of his role as both quarterback and goal-line back for the Broncos. Now that he’s been named the starter, we can safely assume he’ll be a fantasy factor in Week 7 when the Broncos return from their bye.

He’s not quite in Cam Newton territory yet, but he’s close. Feel free to add him as a potential QB1.

Not to oversell here, but Tebow might be one of the last “season saving” waiver wire claims we see emerge from the free agent pool this season.

Ryan Torain (Redskins)

In case no one grabbed him last week while he was on bye, Torain’s the latest pick in the Shanahan running back lottery. If he doesn’t take over the lead back duties this week, all bets are off, but he was impressive two weeks ago before the Redskins entered the bye.

Picking up Torain is trusting Shanahan to stick with the hot hand.

Jackie Battle (Chiefs)

A big back with little going for him until his Week 5 opportunity, Battle could be the answer for the Chiefs at running back in Jamaal Charles’ absence. He’s nothing spectacular as far as skills go, but he’ll get the job done for the Chiefs when they are moving the ball through the air like they did in Week 5.

Don’t rush out to snag him, especially because he’ll be on bye in Week 6, but Battle looks like the back to own in Kansas City.

I’d trade him in a heartbeat if anyone offered anything of value for him. The Chiefs just aren’t going to get a lot of rushing yards this season, no matter who is doing the rushing.

Victor Cruz (Giants)

If he’s been wasting away on your waiver wire, don’t let that happen again.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (Raiders)

For two weeks, he’s looked like the wide receiver the Raiders drafted him to be. I still doubt he is, but you can’t just ignore two weeks of production. Denarius Moore is still the receiver I’d prefer to own in this offense, but take a chance on DHB if you’re looking for help in that department.

Steve Breaston (Chiefs)

The Chiefs broke out the passing attack in Week 5 against the Colts. Don’t expect it to be that easy for Matt Cassel against many other opponents, but when it is, he’s obviously got an eye for Breaston this season.

Alex Smith (49ers)

Nobody’s calling him a starting fantasy quarterback just yet, but Smith turned in a nice day in Week 5 and has spot-starter value moving forward. He could have more if Crabtree gets back to 100 percent health. Without Josh Morgan, Smith’s fantasy prospects might take a dip otherwise.

STASHES

Greg Little (Browns)

A sneaky play this week, Little became a starter during the Browns’ bye week. He was already seeing the most snaps before being named a starter, so this move likely means they’ll be focusing more on him in the offense. He’s the only Browns receiver I’d feel the need to own in standard leagues.

Damian Williams (Titans)

Williams is starting opposite Nate Washington, and he’ll share in those touches Kenny Britt used to receive now that Britt is on IR.

Doug Baldwin (Seahawks)

He’s making plays for the Seahawks, and that should keep him on the field. But I like him better when Charlie Whitehurst is under center than I do when Tarvaris Jackson returns.

Delone Carter / Donald Brown (Colts)

It isn’t pretty, but if Addai misses any time, these two would split carries. I have liked Carter as a sleeper and as the goal-line back in Indy, but he hasn’t shown the coaches anything to inspire confidence in him thus far this season. On the other hand, Brown’s already underwhelmed the coaching staff on multiple occasions.

If given the choice, I’d stash Carter.

Bernard Scott (Bengals)

It’s starting to look more and more hopeless to hold onto Scott for a chance to benefit when Cedric Benson’s suspension is finally enforced. If and when that suspension comes, Scott will still probably split time.

Unless you’re really desperate for the help, I wouldn’t hold onto Scott. You can reconsider grabbing him after his Week 7 bye for a potential start in Week 8 if we know Benson’s situation by then.

Jonathan Dwyer (Steelers)

He looked good in Week 5 and broke a big run, but Dwyer won’t see the ball much once Mendenhall’s healthy. Mendy’s expected to return this week, and that makes Dwyer a deep stash at best.

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The League S03E01: The Lockout with your Dirty Randy out

October 7th, 2011

All this season, just like last season, I’ll be recapping episodes of FX’s The League, a tribute to fantasy football culture in sitcom form. Stop by every Friday to discuss the highlights of each episode and commemorate the best trash talk and one-liners. Bang-bang! What’s the hang?

What better way to begin a season of The League than with The Shiva Bowl Shuffle from Ruxin and his entire fantasy team from last season? I especially enjoyed the Sidney Rice bit: “I’m hip to IR.”

But do you guys see the “George Clooney stubble” on Ruxin? I don’t think I do. Then again, I don’t think I could say I did…even if I did.

At last The League has returned to us like a prodigal son going to Vegas and only giving us periodic, seasonal updates on his winnings who finally comes in the door stinking of booze, bankruptcy, and bad decisions.

In the season premiere, we got caught up with what’s happened in the offseason — mostly just the guys punishing Andre as much as possible for winning The Sacko while Taco walked the earth — and we pushed ahead into how the league is going to screw Ruxin and get away with it. I don’t think they will…do you?

We should all be so lucky as to steal a few moves from The League penance playbook. For being last in the league, Andre had to grow out his hair, play a flute at a bus stop for strangers, take last pick int he draft, AND draft from an alternate location while the league held a draft party at his house. That’s just cold…but so good.

Andre, your life is terrible, but I want to steal all of these ideas for my own leagues.

Taco would be the one to find himself cast as the American cautionary tale on Algerian television, wouldn’t he? He may make all Americans shamefaced in Algeria, but at least he blessed the world with his music.

I’m not sure what a Kevin baby would look like, but the entire time he was talking to Kate about having one, I was imagining what a “rankings slave” baby would look like. Would it try to get out of the womb first, before its peers? Or would it rather stay in the womb until after the due date and be a sleeper baby? Also, would it be as susceptible to dog training as Kevin?

My leagues always talk about a cool way to pick the draft order each year. Personally, I think it should involve some kind of unrelated and uncontrolled competition like a turtle race or a WNBA game. In that regard, Season 1′s No Child Left Behind foot race remains the best way to determine draft positions that I’ve ever seen.

Inevitably, my leagues always end up drawing names or numbers out of a hat like the league did this season with the cobra box. So sad.

How the hell did Ruxin know exactly how they screwed him in picking the draft order? He walks in and called it like he had a mic in the room. And who is Chuck? So many questions! WHEN DO THEY OPEN THE HATCH?

Kevin’s always the weak one. It kind of makes you feel worse for him than Andre because he has the perception of power. He gets trained by half the league through various forms of mind weakness — dog training tricks, pen clicks, and high-notizing. If he wins the league, it might only be because someone guides him to the Shiva like a puppet.

To cheer Kevin up after the draft, the league turns to the dirtiest of Randys, Dirty Randy. And Seth Rogen is perfect for the part. I can actually imagine him being a porn director in between his mainstream movies, but maybe that’s just the Zack and Miri Make a Porno effect on his image.

Before we talk about the porno, by the way, I must say I did not understand how it would have been feasible to draft online with only one computer like Ruxin had planned.

In a perfect world, people would walk up, make a pick, and sit down, but this is not a perfect world. Stickers and a paper draft board I get, but I’ve never seen an online draft go well without everyone having their own computer on which to queue players.

Unfortunately for all, the draft plans go awry as Ruxin’s celebration of self runs long on his rooftop shrine. While he rants about LinkedIn and league rules, Taco lets the Dirty Randy crew into Andre’s place to start shooting, and in classic Taco fashion, he locks the rest of the league on the roof.

The highlight of the porn shoot for me — well, besides the porn star screaming “You have hair! It’s awesome!” to Dr. Nodick — was the Taco, Rafi, and Dirty Randy discussion of middle eastern politics and culture. There’s a color analyst among those three. I just know it.

I’d say it was a successful first episode from the writers this season. There’s plenty of drama to be had now that the entire league — other than Andre and the mysterious outsiders like Chuck — autodrafted. Maybe we’ll see some more trading this year? Yes, please.

For now, we got our The League fix, plus a little porn and plenty of terrible ideas to punish those who finish last in our own league. What more could you ask for in a season premiere? No, really? I’d like to know.

Memorable quotes from Episode 1:

PETE: “It’s definitely less creepy when you follow them onto the bus.”

RUXIN: “Andre, do you see yourself more as like a rapist who does magic or a magician who also likes to rape?”
ANDRE: “With me, magic always comes first.”

RUXIN: “A little Shiva-lingus? Come on, Kevin, find out if it tastes the same.”

ANDRE: “You are Sauron.”

TACO: “Bang-bang! What’s the hang?”

TACO (as Cowboy of Algerian TV): “Back in the USA, we get venereal disease from our cell phones, and homeless people know karate and carry guns.”

JENNY: “I, as much as I wish I could, cannot give birth to a Shiva.”

KEVIN: “It hurts so bad when I pull hard!”

RUXIN: “And then we’ll let the other three lemmings keep their act together as long as they can without exploding with the shame of diarrhea that is currently soaking their pants.”

RUXIN: “Why don’t you put the guns away, anorexic David Crosby?”

TACO: “Blood oath. Kevin, give me your penis.”

RAFI: “I am day drunk. (In song) Get ready to SEE my dick!”

DIRTY RANDY (to Ruxin): “You, though…I’d film the SHIT out of you.”

DIRTY RANDY: “Puns are as vital to the porn industry as they are to the pet shop industry and the child hair salon industry.”

RAFI: “It’s like a white rain of 1,000 loads.”

TACO: “PUMPERNICKEL!…High-notized.”

RUXIN: “You don’t do morally bankrupt…but me? I swim around in it like Scrooge McDuck in a pile of coins.”

RUXIN: “Don’t invite me to join LinkedIn. It just reeks of dudes with cell phone holsters.”

ANDRE: “You have have two kickers? I don’t even have ONE. I KNEW it was a kicker year!”

KEVIN: “You know, I’ve been watching football my whole life —I don’t even know who this person is.”

RUXIN: “Oh, Shiva ring, forever UNCLEAN!”

JENNY: “This porn is disgusting, you guys. Is this what you like?”
OTHERS: “NO!”
KEVIN (softly): “No…”

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There’s a Dirty Randy in my Taco: The League Season 3 Premiere OPEN THREAD

October 6th, 2011

We’re trying something a little new here tonight for the season premiere of The League: The Open Thread. I’ve covered events live in the past, and you guys usually contribute in the comments. Now’s your chance to run the show. Feel free to drop your favorite quotes, trash talk, and general observations from tonight’s episode of The League in the comments below.

Do your worst.

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