On the Wire: Waiver Wire Super Snags from Week 4

Was 2008 the year to have the fifth pick in fantasy football?

So far this season, it would seem that the later draft picks have gone unscathed while the early drafters suffered some major blows to their studs. Owners have had to make due with their depth from the middle rounds, the true test of any fantasy football champion.

A handful of consensus top picks have already missed a game or been limited. LaDainian Tomlinson, slowed by his toe injury in Week 2, spooked some of his owners out of starting him in Week 3 even though he performed well. A.P. and Westbrook owners already have to play the “questionable or not” game each week, and Westbrook sat down in Week 4. Addai, who was banged up last season, isn’t inspiring confidence with his injury scares in just Week 1, and we all know what happened to Tom Brady.

All these injuries have already come up, and the Madden curse hasn’t even struck its cover boy yet. Is Brett Favre’s resilience strong enough to project the curse onto every other player in the NFL?

Marion Barber, Frank Gore and Clinton Portis owners may be sitting pretty for the moment, but owners that have made it through this rough patch for their stud with a winning record can feel good about their team going into Week 5.

If you haven’t been hit by injury, you are not safe yet. Karma can strike you down at any time. Now would be a great time to gather up some depth if you plan on making that playoff run, and if you haven’t gotten a win yet this season, maybe it’s time to completely drop all but your studs and start from scratch with waiver wire gems. As an alternative, you could just cry uncontrollably.

In addition to my take on who will make nice, happy point columns for your teams if you claim them this week, I’ll also start listing off a few guys worthy of being dropped (droppables) each week. Now, that doesn’t mean that you have to let them go unless there is a much better option. If you like a guy, who am I to judge? (A genius.) I didn’t stay in a Holiday Express last night.

Worth Claiming

Deuce McAllister, RB New Orleans Saints
The Deuce is back. After not utilizing him for three weeks, McAllister finally got to show what he was made of and wrecked shop with 20 carries and a touchdown. He might not be as good as he was two years ago, but he might be good enough if you need a situational to low-end RB2. McAllister is the hottest pickup of the week. Sorry, Pierre Thomas, you didn’t get it done.

LeRon McClain, RB Baltimore Ravens
It’s clear that Willis McGahee is not going to stay healthy. McClain is in control of the McGahee Voodoo doll, and he takes everything that opposing defenses give him — including a fantasy victory from me with that last TD Monday night. Out of anger, I’ll probably try to pick him up just so I can unceremoniously drop him Al Davis style.

Mewelde Moore, RB Pittsburgh Steelers
The Baltimore Ravens chewed up every running back that the Steelers sent at them on Monday night and left Moore, the fourth in line, as the last man standing. Do you think Willie Parker sat out just to save himself? Parker’s uncertain status means that Moore could be the starter in Steeler land for several weeks. Big Ben may rely more on the passing game, but Moore is worth snagging if you could use some bye week depth (or if you were counting on Willie Parker). The running game should still be effective for the Steelers.

Fred Jackson, RB Buffalo Bills
Another preseason lie: Marshawn Lynch will play all three downs. He’s not. Jackson’s in the mix, and he’s had nice fantasy outings throughout the early part of the season. Get him while he’s hot, and he’s a matchup start when the Bills face a weak defense.

Rudi Johnson, RB Detroit Lions
If no one has him yet, he’s worth getting if you need a RB since he has been named the starter. Kevin Smith is still not a guy worth dropping, and I don’t see the Lions running much when they are down by double digits.

Cedric Benson, RB Cincinnati Bengals
In a land of parole, the man with no charges is king. Benson finally found a home with the Bengals this week after being cleared of his boating/driving while intoxicated charges. The Bengals signed him for depth behind starter Chris Perry because they had to put DeDe Dorsey on IR, but we all know that a back can sneak up on you and take more prominent, shared role in the offense (see: Rudi Johnson).

Justin Fargas, RB Oakland Raiders
Remember that guy who was the starter before there was McFadden? Now that McFadden is slowed by his injury, Fargas might just have a chance to get his job back when he returns during the bye, but everything is still a little up in the air since the Lane Kiffin firing. To think, we had all given up on him. You probably have the bye this week to think about how much you like Fargas, but it wouldn’t hurt to grab him before games start this week so you don’t risk losing him to some schmuck who has a higher waiver than you next week (because your totally going to dominate this week, right?).

Leon Washington, RB New York Jets
While he’s supposed to be the change of pace for Thomas Jones, Washington is starting to see more time on the field in the faster-moving packages. He could mature into a situational starter if Brett Favre takes the Jets into a land that needs no solid run game. I expect Jones to return to fantasy relevance at some point in the next few weeks, but Washington could be a nice fill for you if you are out of options at RB. You might even be able to fool an owner or two into buying him at the price of a more solid performer if he has a big day with Brett.

Kevin Walter, WR Houston Texans
Moves like Wes Welker with better hands than Andre Johnson so far. Walter proved he was legit in Week 4. He’s even good at doing the “Hokey Pokey” with Matt Schaub. What a talent.

Bobby Engram, WR Seattle Seahawks
Returning this week from chipping his shoulder, Engram should be welcomed home by Matt Hasselbeck with open arms and lots of passes. Oh man, did he miss you, Engram.

Miles Austin, WR Dallas Cowboys
He’s worth it after another week (and another TD) if you have a spot for him. Austin’s likely to be more productive than Crayton this season, and he’s got that big play potential that you love to see in the No. 3 WR in an offense. The Cowboys are too powerful an offense for you to ignore Miles Austin, and outside of Crayton, his only competition for playing time is the hard-handed Sam Hurd.

Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith, WR New York Giants
Without Plax for Week 5, Hixon and Smith both get upgraded in the passing game. If Hixon really does assume the Plax role for this game, I like him much more than Smith. The passing game should be firing on all cylinders, and I think Eli likes and trusts Hixon after the preseason bombs he got to him. Smith and Toomer should both see increased targets in this one. None of the Giants WRs are bad starts this week against Seattle.

Lance Moore and Robert Meachem, WR New Orleans Saints
Unlike Matt Hasselbeck, whatever runs out there for Drew Brees this season gets productive before it gets hurt. I like Moore better than Meachem because he has the more reliable hands for Brees, but Meachem has that big play ability that keeps flaring up like a bad case of…well, let’s not talk about me. Until Marques Colston and/or Jeremy Shockey come back (at least two more weeks away), these two WRs will have nice games for you in a pinch. Brees will need to throw this week against a tough Vikings run defense and could expose the Raiders defense in Week 6 just like Cutler did.

Muhsin Muhammad, WR Carolina Panthers
Muhammad really fits in Carolina with Steve Smith and Delhomme. He’s valuable when the Panthers face a weak secondary, and he’ll take the heat off of Steve Smith each week. Muhammad makes for a great WR3 or even WR2 when the game plan calls for lots of passing.

Jerheme Urban and Steve Breaston, WR Arizona Cardinals
Boldin is very unlikely to play in Week 4. Getting popped in the head and shooting blood from your nose and mouth will do that to you. In his absence, I think Urban steps into the No. 2 spot in the Arizona offense. Everyone will tell you Breaston…but I still like Urban better. Breaston may have gotten the 100-yard game in Week 4, but Urban got the touchdown.

Justin Gage, WR Tennessee Titans
He’s not injured anymore and showed it with almost 100 yards this past week, but what happens when/if Vince Young comes back? For now, he’s a pretty good WR3 or WR3 with limited upside.

Anthony Fasano, TE Miami Dolphins
If he is available, he’s a great spot fill this week. Any team playing San Diego is promised a TE touchdown so far this season, and Chad Pennington already likes throwing to his tight ends. David Martin might not even be a bad play this week, but I like Fasano more.

Matt Schaub, QB Houston Texans
When he’s at the top of his game, he’s one of the best QB2s around and sometimes worthy of QB1 status. It might be a QB1 sort of day against he Colts. I imagine they’ll be playing from behind.

Kyle Orton, QB Chicago Bears
What has the world come to these days? NECKBEARD just became a decent fantasy play? He’s thrown multiple touchdowns and close to 200 yards in his recent games. You have to accept some turnovers, but he’s better than a lot of other risky plays on the wire. This week, he faces off against Detroit with a matchup against Atlanta in Week 6. If you are hurting at QB, maybe Orton is the answer. Hooray?

Guys you should already own by now (but if you don’t, maybe you should):
Steve Slaton (last man standing and with talent), Dustin Keller (Favre-to-TE TD bandwagon), Warrick Dunn (stealing value from Graham by the second)

Ones to Watch

Jerious Norwood, RB Atlanta Falcons
Along the same lines as Leon Washington, Norwood has seen his role increase this season. Michael Turner is by far the more dominant back in this offense, but when the running game is emphasized, Norwood gets enough of a piece to put up fantasy numbers. Unfortunately, Atlanta’s running game doesn’t have many more sure things on the schedule. (Yes, it might be time to worry, Turner owners.)

Kevin Curtis, WR Philadelphia Eagles
McNabb’s best target from last season should be back soon, but it might not be this week. Best skill: Running through the end zone before dropping the ball. Look for him to make an impact when he returns.

Deion Branch, WR Seattle Seahawks
While Engram is back this week from his chipped shoulder, Branch is just getting back to the field coming off knee surgery. He probably won’t see much playing time in Week 5, and with Bobby Engram back in the lineup, he might be a Casper even if he gets out there. Engram is the guy to own in Seattle from now on, but Branch could make a triumphant fantasy return if he can get comfortable on his knee again. Hey, Ronnie Brown did it.

Sidney Rice, WR Minnesota Vikings
Sidney Rice is another guy returning from a knee injury, but if he sees more time this week against the Saints, he should show what he’s worth. His TD in Week 1 against the Green Bay secondary was a sign of things to come, and I like him more than I like Berrian and cake…but not as much as cheese fries.

Devin Hester, WR Chicago Bears
He dropped out of our fantasy minds and hearts with his rib injury, but if Kyle Orton becomes a potential fantasy play, Hester is right up there with him. Oh, and please prepare a way to clip wings off pigs. It’s going to happen next.

Chris Henry, WR Cincinnati Bengals
Coming off suspension, Chris Henry will be working out with the team this week. There’s no promise that he plays on Sunday — or even makes the roster if he’s out of shape. Wait for some news out of the Bengals camp or a fantasy sighting in Week 5 before you go out to grab him. The Bengals offense just doesn’t seem to be firing on all cylinders yet this season.

Zach Miller, TE Oakland Raiders
Miller had sleeper status coming into the year, but he was almost non-existent for the Raiders earlier in the season. The big day in Week 4 might have people talking, but take away his TD catch and he had a slightly better day than usual (32 yards from four catches). It might have just been his week facing the Chargers. Was Shawn Merriman in charge of covering tight ends? If the chemistry continues between Miller and JaMarcus Russell, he’s got the talent to be a starting fantasy tight end.

Kevin Boss, TE New York Giants
He started slow but showed promise before heading into his bye week. Without Plax in Week 5, guys like Boss and Steve Smith might see more targets from Eli. If no one has him yet, keep your eye on him to see if he builds from that Week 3 performance, and if you’re tight end hasn’t performed yet, maybe you should switch it up and take a chance on Boss.

JaMarcus Russell, QB Oakland Raiders
The big boy out of LSU hasn’t blown up any stat lines in the NFL yet and just lost a head coach, but he’s still an interesting fantasy option. He’s got a cannon for the big play, and his ability to throw the ball across his body with just arm and some significant distance was impressive in Week 4 even when he was being swarmed. If you’re backup QB is lacking in the upside department, Russell could fill that role nicely. He looks like one of the most consistent options at QB even if his numbers aren’t spectacular. Upside is that he could come out of the bye week putting up better numbers, but you can probably wait to grab him until next week.

Marc Bulger, QB St. Louis Rams
Nothing much has changed, but Bulger has a new coach and his starting job back. He hasn’t done much yet this season to deserve a roster spot, but he could. He’s one of those “names” that people always give value in fantasy. That makes him worth consideration, but it’s still hard to pull the trigger. Wait until his first game back unless you really need him. The upside is there.

Carolina Panthers D/ST
The Panthers defense hasn’t exploded just yet, but they are keeping the running backs pinned down for low yardage. If they tighten up a bit more, they might just become an elite unit. They also have a nice stretch Weeks 10-12 against the Raiders, Lions and Falcons. Consider this your advance warning.

New York Jets D/ST
The Jets have quietly become a nice fantasy defense. Much like the Detroit Lions last year, you wouldn’t really think to consider them until they have a big week. Well, they had one this past week against Arizona, and after the bye this week, they face the Bengals, Raiders and Chiefs. None of those offenses make mistakes. Not ever. (Incredible sarcasm here as if you couldn’t tell.)

Flukes to Ignore or Droppables

Correll Buckhalter, RB Philadelphia Eagles
If you didn’t get him last week to fill in for your injured Westbrook, you probably missed your chance. Word is that Westbrook all but suited up on Sunday night, and I expect to see him take the field against Washington. Westbrook just missed his one game for this season, so if the trend holds true, Buckhalter has almost no value moving forward. His value stays put only if Westbrook sits again.

DeAngelo Williams, RB Carolina Panthers
If you have a guy with more upside, jump on him. Williams is on the losing end of a battle for carries since he doesn’t see the ball near the end zone. Unless you can unload him in a trade, it might be downhill from here. He’s still got value, but don’t hang onto him waiting for a miracle, okay? Promise me…

Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers
Mike Martz forgot he was on the roster after all that talk of TE passing sets, and it looks like he might even like the other guy better. Davis is not worth keeping on your roster until he proves something.

Dante Rosario, TE Carolina Panthers
While he had a great day in Week 1, Rosario has seen less action since the return of Steve Smith. Now that Muhsin Muhammad is getting looks as well, it’s just time to move on to another hot waiver wire TE or the guy you drafted. (Please don’t say Vernon Davis.)

Joey Galloway, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Is it worth it for you to hold onto him for the two to three game stints that he will play this season? Not if you can pick up someone who is doing well now and not burning a hole in your bench.

Pierre Thomas, RB New Orleans Saints
Too French to push through the piles like Deuce can. Thomas is now mixed in there somewhere but not anywhere fantasy relevant for now.

Ray Rice, RB Baltimore Ravens
Obviously, we all missed a memo in thinking Cam Cameron was going to use this guy in place of Willis McGahee if McGahee stayed banged up. It was all a trick to hide the really BIG talent, LeRon McClain.

Ahman Green, RB Houston Texans
Really? Are you that much of a believer? Think about it. How desperate are you to have RB help down the road compared to what you can get right now? You should consider more immediate options. Green has likely lost his starting job and a significant role in the Houston offense this season. Deuce McAllister, LeRon McClain and Justin Fargas are all upgrades.

Javon Walker, WR Oakland Raiders
Wow, you are a believer.

Dude… Brett Favre and Laveranues Coles

After a poor showing on Monday night against the Chargers, Brett Favre came up big in Week 4 with a six touchdown performance against the Arizona Cardinals. The prototypical gunslinger quarterback hit 24 of his 34 pass attempts for 289 yards. The six TDs was a career high for the veteran, 38-year-old QB.

He found an unlikely hero in Laveranues Coles, bringing down three of the six touchdowns on Sunday. The touchdowns were a career high for Coles as well. While the quarterback and receiver didn’t have great chemistry to start the season — partly because Coles was injured and partly because Coles was against the Jets’ ditching of his friend and former QB Chad Pennington — they seem to be on the same page now, the end zone page.

For career days in reality and massive point totals in fantasy, Favre and Coles share Dude… award honors this week.

Favre split his touchdowns between Coles (3), Jerricho Cotchery (2) and rookie TE Dustin Keller (1) on Sunday in a beat down of the Cardinals. The Jets even threw on a fourth-and-one play…for a touchdown. The final score was 56-35.

More from Favre on the Coles connection from Tim Graham on ESPN’s NFL Nation Blog:

Favre noted it took so long to develop chemistry with Coles in particular because Coles’ nagging thigh injury limited their reps together through training camp. Coles went into the game with 10 catches and one touchdown through three games.

“I can’t tell you how many people within this organization have told me — week in and week out — if you just throw the ball to L.C., he’ll make a play,” Favre said. “I didn’t go out there [Sunday] and say ‘I’m just going to throw it to L.C.’

“The guy’s a playmaker. Our communication has been great regardless of what people may think. We talk about more things than we have actually gone out and practiced. So I think it’s a work in progress, but I think he’s a heck of a player. You’ve got to find a way to get him the ball.”

If it’s still a work in progress, the Favre-Coles fantasy connection should come up big for owners this season. Favre’s upcoming schedule will provide him plenty of opportunities for more record days.

Although they didn’t show it, Arizona had been playing some very good defense until Sunday. The Cardinals had no answer and gave Brett room to throw all day. Something tells me the Cardinals won’t play that soft of a defense again this season, but it’s just a hunch.

And maybe next time the Jets will have a record day in their actual uniforms instead of in Titans throwbacks that looked like Oakland Raiders practice squad jerseys. Heaven forbid they keep wearing them to prevent a jinx.

If they want to worry about a jinx, there’s always the Madden curse

Foolish Thoughts on Week 4: Postgame reactions to the week that fantasy forgot

Where did that Carson Palmer injury come from on Sunday morning? I lucked out played against him this week, but I didn’t hear a word about it until I saw him putting up zero points heading into halftime. Enough with the quiet injuries already.

I’m still shocked there was an Ocho Cinco sighting without Palmer in the lineup.

Denver Broncos lose to the Kansas City Chiefs. That was unbelievable enough, but it just sounds silly when you consider that both Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall had big days. Unfortunately, they also fumbled. They’ll have to fix up that offense before Tampa Bay this week. I don’t think Larry Johnson is that good. Denver’s defense is that bad.

Royal had 100+ yards in the loss. I see him taking a Patrick Crayton of 2007 value. When Marshall has an average or less spectacular performance, Royal will have a big game, but when Marshall is out of this world, Royal is limited to something around 80 yards and a rare TD.

David Garrard might be hitting his stride. He’s getting back to being mobile to compensate for issues with the offensive line. Garrard is worth holding onto until after his bye. A Jags transition to a pass-first offense with Garrard threatening to run could make him increasingly more valuable in fantasy.

Is Matt Jones for real or is this just some residual effect of the drugs?

Matt Schaub woke up from his fantasy slumber in Week 4 as well. Was that Kevin Walter or Wes Welker out there? Either way, I want him on my fantasy roster.

By the way, Steve Slaton looks like he can do some big things. I’d make sure he’s on a roster this week if you’ve been ignoring my constant recommendation that you pick him up.

Brett Favre disappoints on Monday night and then fires back with six touchdowns this week — including one to the rookie TE Dustin Keller. (Get him.)

I can’t believe he took it up a notch with the Jets wide receivers so quickly. Coles is supposed to hate him for replacing his best friend, Chad Pennington, but I guess being mad at Favre is like ignoring a rocket-fast bullet flying into your chest. You just have to catch it.

Anquan Boldin certainly isn’t afraid to take a monster hit or run right into coverage. Glad he’s okay. There’s no way you should trade for him now when his value is at its peak, but if the owner gets scared of the injury or Boldin misses some time, make an offer. Boldin could win you several games down the stretch.

The Jets defense is becoming a potential fantasy play…but so is Kyle Orton.

J.T. O’Sullivan was underwhelming in this one, but he’s no Drew Brees. The 49ers will continue to develop a rhythm with their passing game should remain a fantasy threat on offense down the stretch. O’Sullivan’s a great QB2, but he’ll enter into a rough patch the next few weeks before he hits the next nice patch of matchups.

Atlanta corners are just bad — and especially bad against Steve Smith. Muhsin Muhammad and Steve Smith like being together in that offense. Delhomme likes them there, too.

When Tennessee plays Minnesota, you don’t expect to see 30 points on the board. Chris Johnson benefited from the LenDale White fumble and had a bigger game than anyone expected. Johnson’s basically become a must start in the Tennessee offense even though he splits time. More TDs would be nice though, Chris.

Greg Jennings finally scores a touchdown…and then another one. I know Aaron Rodgers got banged up and mistreated, but it was the Bucs defense. He’ll bounce back, and I’d be surprised if he didn’t start in Week 5 to torch the Atlanta corners (and get Greg Jennings another TD for this season).

Don’t sleep on Jordy Nelson. The rookie has talent and Rodgers’ trust.  As long as James Jones is out, Jordy Nelson is a borderline starter or WR3.

Where did Jerramy Stevens go this week? Jail?

Warrick Dunn is reducing Earnest Graham’s value. They are both being paid the same amount of green, and if you take away the two big runs that Graham has broken, he isn’t getting a lot of action. I think I’m worried if I am a Graham owner. Might be time to buy low on someone else. (Psst, Ryan Grant)

I am convinced that I have mind control after I commanded the Buffalo interception return for a touchdown and the long bomb to Lee Evans. Seriously, I was looking at my ESPN live scoring, and I asked myself why Buffalo had done nothing on defense…and why hadn’t Lee Evans gotten more than ONE throw. Prayers answered.

Trent Green is NOT a better quarterback than Marc Bulger, but maybe the Buffalo defense went a little easy on him since no one wanted a death on their hands if they sacked him into his last concussion.

What happened to the Cowboys on Sunday? Yes, being from Big D, I am a Cowboys fan. Loathe me.

I respected the Dallas corners, but this far into the season with no interceptions? Pacman really did just become just “Adam” this season. I no longer give them credit for their skills until the get an INT.

The Cowboys offense fell asleep in the second quarter — along with the corners — and Felix Jones has got to get at least one carry. Wade Phillips said the Cowboys have no plays designed for Jones in comeback situations. How about every game-changing run he’s had so far this season?

The Chargers really have given up a touchdown to a tight end every week this season. Even Zach Miller gets one for the Raiders. I’m starting Anthony Fasano if I have him this week against the Chargers. The TMR agrees.

JaMarcus Russell may still be young, but that guy can throw. Dynasty leaguers should note that potential.

DeSean Jackson finally gets his first TD in the NFL. I don’t think he let the ball go at all, but he caught this one in the end zone. Then, he fumbled a punt. Rookie.

Is Kyle Orton becoming a decent fantasy play? Someone pinch me…or slap me…or knock me out. This fantasy surge just can’t happen.

But Neckbeard has Detroit and Atlanta the next two weeks. Is it the mustache?

Can David Akers make field goals anymore? Rocca doesn’t like his chances. How close does he need to be these days?

If Westbrook had been in this game, he would have gotten that touchdown.

Joe Flacco can extend the play, hit his receivers and, like Russell, he’s got a gun. Unfortunately, he’s still a rookie. He’s going to fumble and make mistakes, and he did.

Where is Ray Rice? I hate you LeRon McClain and your last TD that cost me a match this week. That big boy might just be a waiver wire gem all season as long as McGahee can’t stay healthy.

Weeks like Week 4 are why projections can drive you crazy. Better lineups next week, and cheers and beers to all who started Brett Favre.

A Fool and His Money in Week 4

Move over Kevin Garnett, we have a new No. 1 on Chadam’s “Most Hated Athlete for Gambling Purposes” list: Brett Favre.

Let me explain. I made a much larger wager than I should have last week given my gambling budget. I was bored and thinking about my upcoming trip to Vegas. These things happen. I made a three-team, 10-point teaser on these teams and lines: Panthers (+13.5), Bills (+0.5) and Jets (+18.5).

The Panthers came through for me, but the Bills almost screwed up my wager before the second slate of Sunday games even began. They were 9.5-point home favorites over the Raiders, so with my revised line, all they had to do was win the game. Easier said than done with JaMarcus Russell’s 84-yard bomb to some hick named Johnnie Lee Higgins nearly ruining my day. Thanks to Trent Edwards, the Bills were able to drill a last minute, game-winning field goal, and my bet remained intact. Everything was up to Favre and the Jets in the Monday night game.

I’m not going to lie. I was quietly confident that I would win. I felt pretty good heading into Monday night considering I shouldn’t have had a live wager in the first place, and I was getting 18.5 and Favre against a winless team with a banged up defense.

Yeah, I was wrong. Final score: Jets 29, Chargers 48.

Remember my spread? How about these “highlights” from the game:

  • There were six lead changes, and four of those were in the fourth quarter.
  • New York attempted three onside kicks and recovered one. The Chargers scored touchdowns on both the other attempts, in no small part because of the field position.
  • Brett Favre had FIVE chances to complete a two-point conversion that would have won my bet…and he went 0-5.
  • For the final two-point conversion attempt, the ball was placed six inches from the goal line due to multiple penalties. Tony Kornheiser and I were thinking the same thing: “Wow, six inches…you gotta run a quarterback sneak, right?” I almost died when Favre came out in the shotgun. Of course, the attempt failed.

This was definitely the most devastating gambling loss I have ever experienced. It wasn’t even about the money (though every time I remember the large payout slipping through my fingers, it’s salt in the wound). It was the fact that I was on an emotional rollercoaster for three hours straight while cheering for an enormous wager that I was extremely lucky to have in the first place given the first two games.

Not only will I hate Brett Favre from now until eternity, I am also officially off the Jets’ bandwagon. Screw gambling, I’m taking a break.

But one thing I’m not taking a break from is beating Nick like a rented mule as he collapsed with a 4-12 record in Week 3. I went a respectable 7-9 to tie the season records at 23-23-1 apiece.

Week 4 is the shortest week of the year since Hurricane Ike changed Houston and Baltimore’s bye. Buckle up. Here’s how it goes down Sunday.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Chadam Takes: Broncos (-9.5) over CHIEFS
The Broncos are going to run up the score early in this one. I know it’s still early, but it looks like Bowe is headed down the Andre Johnson career path: great receiver on a terrible offense with line issues.

Nick Takes: Broncos (-9.5) over CHIEFS
Last week was pretty tough on me. A lot of games were closer than I thought they would be, but does anybody actually believe KC has a chance in this game? They are on a 12-game losing streak from last season. This game has potential for a 10-point teaser.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Chadam Takes: BENGALS (-3.5) over Browns
I really just want to see the Browns give Quinn the reigns to see if Nick’s head explodes. Props are needed though. Nick was hating on Brady Quinn before hating on him was cool, before his Notre Dame days.

Nick Takes: BENGALS (-3.5) over Browns
I didn’t think the Browns would do well this year, but I didn’t expect them to be on a record-low pace for points scored in a season. With two teams this bad, I would normally take the points, but the Bengals at least showed signs of life last week in the overtime loss to the Giants.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Chadam Takes: Texans (+7.5) over JAGUARS
My boy Steve Slaton! What a pimp. This guy pisses excellence in the morning. Thank God the Ahman Green era is almost over.

Nick Takes: Texans (+7.5) over JAGUARS
The Texans always play the Jags close for some reason. This game could easily be a blowout, but the Texans found a RB last weekend in Steve Slaton who should help take some pressure off Matt Schaub. The nagging injuries to Fred Taylor and MJD this week also make me uneasy of picking the Jags to cover.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets

Chadam Takes: Cardinals (+2) over JETS
I hate you, Favre.

Nick Takes: Cardinals (+2) over JETS
The Jets are not going to magically change from a 4-12 team into a solid playoff team just because Brett Favre was added to the mix. If they want a chance to be a playoff team, they need to beat teams like Arizona. I personally don’t see it happening though.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

Chadam Takes: SAINTS (-6) over 49ers
News Flash: This won’t be a defensive battle. Don’t hurt yourself jumping off the J.T. O’Sullivan bandwagon after this week.

Nick Takes: 49ers (+6) over SAINTS
The Saints might as well be Seattle Junior the way they keep losing their best receivers. The 49ers look like they actually have some confidence and believe they can win. They haven’t had that since way before the failed Alex Smith experiment.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Chadam Takes: PANTHERS (-7) over Falcons
I’m not sure Matt Ryan is ready for road games yet. This game is my litmus test for Michael Turner. A good game here will make me a believer.

Nick Takes: PANTHERS (-7) over Falcons
I like this Falcons team. I want them to win, but any team who plays the Lions and the Chiefs will have two wins. As a young team, you might expect the Falcons to have a chance to make a game-tying drive in the fourth quarter, but their inexperience will produce mistakes that turn the game into a blowout. It’s just part of the growing pains for young teams. I expect have the same pains against the Panthers. Count on it.

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans

Chadam Takes: TITANS (-3) over Vikings
In a week where there aren’t a lot of lines that jump out at me, this game is my favorite game of the week. I think both teams have a similar blueprint, but Tennessee executes it better, especially at home.

Nick Takes: TITANS (-3) over Vikings
I’m tempted to pick the Vikings in this one because they are pretty good against the run, but the Titans defense has been sick so far this season. I’m not ready to congratulate Brad Childress on his brilliant move, starting Gus Frerotte. I still remember what my Dad told me.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chadam Takes: BUCCANEERS (-1) over Packers
This game is really testing my love for the Bucs, but I’ll roll with them here. I think Rodgers will have too much trouble with the underrated Bucs defense.

Nick Takes: Packers (+1) over BUCCANEERS
How many Bucs players can actually spell Buccaneers correctly without looking? Professional sports franchises shouldn’t have names that are hard to spell, even if they have a shorter nickname. Just use the nickname. Also, I don’t consider it a good thing when you need 60+ passes in one game. It just means you suck at running the ball.

Buffalo Bills at St. Louis Rams

Chadam Takes: Bills (-8) over RAMS
Last time I checked, Trent Green can’t pass block any better than Marc Bulger can. The Rams are taking a step sideways here, and since I have nothing else to add, I love how Anheuser-Busch’s impending sale to a European brewery created all of the unexpected backlash from people claiming that drinking Bud is now “anti-American.” Think that has anything to do with the release and heavy promotion of the new Budweiser “American Ale?”

Nick Takes: Bills (-8) over RAMS
Do you ever look back and wonder what you were thinking when you made a decision that is so obviously horrible? That’s how I feel about picking the Rams last week. Right now, I would pick a high school team to cover the spread against the Rams.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

Chadam Takes: DALLAS (-11.5) over Redskins
I’m nervous giving up this many points, but Dallas trounced the Packers. The Packers are better than the Redskins, so…

Nick Takes: Redskins (+11.5) over DALLAS
Dallas looks good. There is no doubt about it. But I’ve talked about how much I like Jason Campbell and this Redskins team all season long, and they are starting to back me up. They may not against Dallas, but I expect them to keep it within single digits.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Chadam Takes: Chargers (-7) over RAIDERS
Welcome to the regular season, San Diego! You’re only two weeks late, and you’re just in time to show us how bad the Raiders really are.

Nick Takes: Chargers (-7) over RAIDERS
I hate everything about the Raiders from the owner to their uniform to their QB. They may have surprised everybody in the past two weeks, but they are the same old Raiders. The Chargers found their groove on Monday night, and I expect this game to get out of hand quickly.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

Chadam Takes: Eagles (-3) over BEARS
The only reason Jon Gruden decided to throw 67 times on Chicago has to be that he saw something on tape, right? That guy loves to run the ball. You know Andy Reid will notice the same thing. With Westbrook at less than 100 percent, I’m wondering if Reid will call a single running play.

Nick Takes: Eagles (-3) over BEARS
Assuming McNabb stays healthy this entire game, I like the Eagles in this one. After dropping Big Ben nine times last week, I expect at least five sacks on Kyle Orton this week. The Bears impressed me in their opening game against the Colts but have looked much more mediocre the last two weeks.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Chadam Takes: Ravens (+7) over STEELERS
There might not be seven points scored in this game. A little change of pace considering the previous Monday nights, huh?

Nick Takes: Ravens (+7) over STEELERS
I like the Ravens in this one because the Steelers offense has struggled these past two weeks against the Browns and the Eagles. The Ravens defense is back to being straight up nasty. The strong running game will be enough to cover Joe Flacco in this one.

Last Week:

Nick: 4-12
Chadam: 7-9

Current Standings after Week 2:

Chadam: 23-23-1
Nick: 23-23-1
Bill Simmons: 23-23-1

Week 4 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

This week’s bye shouldn’t have caught you by surprise, but the characters you are left to start might. Strangely enough, many of the players that you might have drafted late or gotten on the cheap have great plays this week.

Make sure you don’t forget about these guys, and as always, any start-or-sit questions asked in the comments will be answered by Saturday night. If not, call someone! I’m missing or in Vegas.

Hot Hands

J.T. O’Sullivan vs. Saints — Another great week to start O’Sullivan. He’s got a difficult stretch after this week, but JTO should have a shootout against Drew Brees and the Saints.

Lee Evans vs. Rams — He’s a fluke-y player, but St. Louis’ defense is no fluke. It’s just bad. Lee Evans could have a big week against this horrible pass defense, and you know he wants one.

Trent Edwards vs. Rams — Well, if Lee Evans has a good week…

Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh vs. Browns — The Browns defense has been pretty miserable, and Carson Palmer showed signs of life last week against the Giants. If you’ve been starting any of these guys the last three weeks, they should be in your lineup for Week 4.

Kerry Collins vs. Vikings — In a tough bye week, you may be out your star quarterback. Don’t expect explosions on the Titans offense, but Collins should put up decent numbers to keep Minnesota’s tough run defense off of LenDale White and Chris Johnson. He’s worth a start if you need a quarterback.

Jason Campbell, Santana Moss vs. Cowboys — Santana’s new thing is scoring touchdowns every game. Oh snap! He just scored another one. While I fear the Cowboys secondary, they haven’t recorded a single interception this season, and Campbell has been incredibly efficient with his passing. Both QB and RB are worth starting in what could be an Eagles-Cowboys style offensive contest.

Donald Lee vs. Buccaneers – He’s becoming more utilized in the Green Bay offense, and he just might see an increased role this week against a sometimes tough Tampa Bay secondary. If you are filling in someone for Dallas Clark, Anthony Fasano, Kevin Boss or John Carlson, Lee is a good option this week. Robert Royal isn’t bad either, but Jerramy Stevens might be better.

Bubble Boys

Jonathan Stewart vs. Falcons — He shares carries, but Stewart should dominate the Atlanta line. When it comes to short yardage (and touchdowns), it’s Stewart who should get the call. There’s always the chance that Atlanta lets Steve Smith run wild on them, but Stewart should have a decent week.

Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards vs. Bengals — They haven’t shown the chemistry they had last year, but if they get it going, it will be this week. Otherwise, it’s up to Braylon to find another lover in Brady Quinn.

Brett Favre vs. Cardinals — Even though they might not look it, the Cardinals are a top defense thus far. After the picks he threw against the Chargers, Favre might be uncertain and mistake-heavy against the Cards as well. You didn’t draft a Madden curse as a QB1, did you?

Matt Forte vs. Eagles — The Forte has been strong with this one. He’s put up points week after week. The Eagles are too tough a squad to let him get his usual 20 points, but if he can get a touchdown, he is worth playing. (Ed. Note: I’m still playing him this week, but it’ll be a judgment call between him and Westbrook for me. He’ll have his points, but don’t expect another 20-point outing.)

Bryant Johnson vs. Saints — Johnson showed little in Week 3’s stat books, but Gore had a big day. Against the Saints, they should mix it up a bit more, and Johnson could be the main target. Remember that, back in Arizona, the people keeping him off the field were Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

Devery Henderson vs. 49ers — Some weeks, Henderson shows up to work and gets a few long bombs his way. Other weeks, you have to check the reports just to make sure he was active. The guy is too inconsistent for my tastes. Even in this potential shootout, he might play the part of Casper.

Cold Shoulders

Rashard Mendenhall vs. Ravens — Mendy was one text message away from being a “Bubble Boy” rather than a “Cold Shoulder.” He may talk a big game to fellow rookie Ray Rice, but Mendenhall faces one of the top defenses against the run. After his mediocre showings thus far, I don’t think he’ll blow this one out of the water. Baltimore will bring the pain like Philly did and try to shut the Steelers down.

Kyle Orton vs. Eagles — The Eagles defense has been tough against the run and fierce attacking the quarterback. That intensity doesn’t bode well for an offense that relies on a strong run game to set up a few passes. Orton should be bombarded and isn’t worth starting unless you have no better options.

Trent Green vs. Bills — I know you just picked him up if he’s on your roster, and I’m sure you’re excited to see his first start of the season, but did you see what Buffalo did against the Seattle offensive line in Week 1? Trent Green might be in for another season-ending concussion. I just hope Green doesn’t die on the field. That would be a total buzzkill.

Torry Holt vs. Bills — Trent Green might bring that extra rally to the offense…but not this week. The Bills will take the passing game out immediately and make Steven Jackson work for every run he gets. Holt remains a WR3-worthy option for only the VERY optimistic this week.

Sleeper Who Might Wake Up This Week

My Norwood and Michael Pittman sleeper picks last week didn’t hurt you. Norwood had plenty of yards as the Chiefs got run over, and Pittman got a TD — granted, two would have been better. This week, I’ll go a little bit further out there.

Jordy Nelson vs. Buccaneers — In a tough bye week, Nelson isn’t a bad start. Jordy assumes the third WR position with James Jones still hurting, and they showed in Week 3 that they are comfortable letting him get some targets in the red zone. If you are without a WR3, Nelson could fill that spot for you, and as the third receiving threat against the Bucs secondary, he just might see some increased action.

On the Wire: Waiver Wire Gems from Week 3

Apparently, when you try and make things faster around here, it makes the Internet explode, and bad things happen. I’ll write that down, and, I guess, take it as a compliment that we’ve had such a large flow of traffic around at Fools lately.

I’ll try not to break anything else, okay?

The waiver wire starts to thin this week, but alas, here come the dreaded bye weeks. Every fantasy owner has probably seen how bad they can be, and they’ve fortified their teams to make up for it. Here are a few guys that might have slipped under the radar until now.

J.T. O’Sullivan, QB San Francisco 49ers

This guy needs a nickname. He just has too much punctuation in that name, so from now on, I dub thee JTO, Mr. O’Sullivan. If your league is sleeping on this guy, don’t. O’Sullivan is a Mike Martz quarterback. He’s going to take his hits, but he is also going to put up a 300+ yard game when he has a good matchup. If he has one of those during your current starting QBs bye week, he’s worth putting on your roster. His high risk, high reward play should pay off for fantasy owners hurting from Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson and Peyton Manning — oh, and that Tom Brady guy. This week, he faces off against the New Orleans Saints’ unimpressive secondary.

Brian Griese, QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

He threw a lot of balls for Tampa Bay on Sunday — no, that’s not what she said. I don’t think he puts up 407 yards and two touchdowns each week without overtime, but he’s worth getting on your roster now. If his plentiful passing attempts continue, he could be fantasy-worthy where Jeff Garcia was only a capable fantasy backup QB. Griese definitely takes on high-end backup status now with the potential to do more when you need him (against Detroit, Minnesota, New Orleans and Atlanta).

Jerramy Stevens, TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’m not exactly sure how he got off parole long enough to leave Seattle, but his return from suspension in Tampa Bay showed his effectiveness. With Galloway out and healing slowly, Stevens could be a factor in the passing game. It’s not like the Bucs have a herd of big name receivers. Stevens is one of those physically imposing guys like Vernon Davis who promise a great deal as a tight end. Unlike Davis though, Stevens could be consistent with Brian Griese finding him when it counts like in Week 3. I mean, at least we know he gets his hands dirty.

Dustin Keller, TE New York Jets

Brett Favre likes the rookie tight end even though Keller has a veteran squad in Chris Baker and Bubba Franks ahead of him on the depth chart. Late in the San Diego game, Keller was getting open and brought in a late touchdown. If you are hurting at TE, Keller might be worth a look — especially when the Jets play strong passing defenses that will lock out Jerricho Cotchery and that touchdown-stealing Chansi Stuckey.

Anthony Fasano, TE Miami Dolphins

Don’t you….dun dun da dun dun…forget about him. He might be Ronnie Brown’s favorite target.

Domenik Hixon, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith, WR New York Giants

They have a bye this week, but in Week 5, the Giants will be without Plaxico Burress for his INSUBORDINATION. I’m not sure what Plaxico did for those two days that he missed practice, but insubordination is a great word. Look for Toomer and Steve Smith to step up, but Hixon, who had a three touchdown performance in the preseason, could go wild again in place of the absent receiver. A good game in Week 5 could earn Steve Smith and Hixon more looks.

Correll Buckhalter, RB Philadelphia Eagles

Go on! Be a vulture! Don’t you see the bird circling the Westbrook owner in your league? Westbrook is only listed as day-to-day, so there’s no guarantee that he won’t take the field. If you are seriously hurtin’ at RB or are playing against the Westbrook owner in your league this week, it might be worth stashing Buckhalter. Remember that the Eagles play the Bears this week though, so don’t expect a Thanksgiving turkey to just fall in your lap. Westbrook owners, get him if you can. On the bright side, I don’t think Westbrook will miss more than one game — if he misses any at all.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB Pittsburgh Steelers

The fantasy football gods are smiling on the folks who are hurting at RB this week. Mike Tomlin even did the fantasy football players a favor by letting us all know PRE-waivers that Willie Parker wouldn’t be going on Monday night. Mendenhall will get his first start, but he hasn’t just dominated like everyone thought he would coming into this season — and there’s that thing he has about fumbling. He’s worth putting on your roster if you have Parker or if your alternative is Ahman Green. Limit your expectation against Baltimore on Monday night. It could be another low-scoring, defensive affair for the Steelers.

Rudi Johnson, RB Detroit Lions

Oh boy, did you see that great game that Rudi had against the 49ers! Now, let me break down what I just said: Rudi had one great game against the 49ers. He’s still splitting time at RB even though he seems to have won some points with the coaching staff after his 131 total yards and a touchdown this week. Both teams were running the ball pretty well, and I’ll give you that Rudi has the hot hand. Still, I am not a true believer. When you get cut from an NFL franchise that is hurtin’ terribly for some movement on offense, you must have a defect besides your high bill.

You can pick him up if you are lacking at RB, but don’t go dropping anybody major (see: anyone with less fluke potential). It remains to be seen how much the Lions will even be able to run the ball this year when they give up 21 points just by starting the game clock. There’s always garbage time?

Michael Bush, RB Oakland Raiders

Role is not certain right now for Bush, but with Fargas hurt, he’s a must grab. I like him almost as much as I like McFadden, and Bush could end up being a big TD vulture to McFadden’s flashy runs similar to how LenDale White and Chris Johnson work.

Brandon Lloyd, WR Chicago Bears

Chicago is where receivers go to die, but maybe, Chicago just makes all wideouts the inverse. Stay with me here. If you were a good WR and went to Chicago, you got pretty bad, BUT if you were a bad WR or a “Wait, who?” wide receiver, now you have a chance.

Lloyd seems to be benefiting from when Kyle Orton, lacking in the neck beard department this season, throws one out there. He’s had five and six receptions respectively in the last two weeks with 124 yards and a score this past week. He just might be a decent WR3 option at this point when the Neckbeard, ahem, excuse me, Kyle Orton is passing the ball against weak defenses — they still probably won’t let him come out to play much against the good guys.

Matt Jones, WR Jacksonville Jaguars

Sigh…he’s made the jump. I really hoped I could ignore the coke fiend until he dropped off the map, but he really does seem like he can carry a role in the passing offense for Jacksonville this year. If what they are saying is true, the pass-first offense in Jacksonville that Garrard could lead after their bye week rest could utilize a guy like Jones-y. Pick him up if you need him; just don’t talk to me about him.

Bobby Engram and Deion Branch, WR Seattle Seahawks

They are supposed to return Week 5, but Branch might be seen in Week 4. If they aren’t on a roster, make it so. Hasselbeck needs them like I need cake, and I NEED cake.

Ones to Watch — Guys to be cautious about, but get them if you need them

Damon Huard, QB Kansas City Chiefs

It’s Huard’s turn to try and right the ship for Kansas City. Thigpen didn’t “wow” with his INT-heavy performance last week. Huard is still an emergency or bye week option unless he has Dwayne Bowe on his fantasy team. You don’t really want to have Chiefs on your fantasy team unless you’re forced into it. My deepest condolences to all the Kansas City Chiefs’ mothers playing fantasy.

Trent Green, QB St. Louis Rams

Well, if you were impressed by what Bulger could do in this offense, wait until you see what Green can do. I think there’s already an over/under in Vegas for how many snaps he gets to take before his next — and possibly final — concussion. Green playing for the Rams might be the worst player decision (from a health standpoint) all season — including Merriman almost playing the entire season on a floating pile of knee.

Billy Miller, TE New Orleans Saints

Miller benefits from Shockey being injured, but he won’t do much for fantasy. He’s worth keeping an eye on while Shockey and Colston are down and out, you know, for kicks or something.

LeRon McClain, RB Baltimore Ravens

Another “wait and see” sort of guy that you can jump on now if you need some RB help. He carried some of the load while McGahee was out, and he got another decent dose on Sunday when McGahee got cut (as in bleeding, not from the team). As long as the starting two RBs (McGahee and Ray Rice) don’t turn into big bleeders, McClain will probably drop back into a TD vulture or short yardage guy. We know that the Ravens are going to run the ball A LOT with Flacco under center, so he’s got some value in the range of Michael Pittman, which isn’t terrible at the moment. Two touchdowns is nothing to forget about.

Miles Austin, WR Dallas Cowboys

You guys know that I don’t think a ton of popcorn-fingers Patrick Crayton. Austin’s a speed guy and more likely to assume a complimentary role to Terrell Owens than Sam Hurd, who T.O. sort of took under his wing as his backup. Crayton won’t disappear, but Austin could take looks away from Crayton when the Cowboys put three receivers on the field. Miles racked up 152 yards and a score on just two receptions. His big play ability could earn him fantasy WR3 status.

Antonio Bryant, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers

His value is dependent upon Brian Griese throwing as much as he did and Galloway’s injury. Two factors against your potential make you watch-worthy rather than snag-worthy. He assumes Galloway’s value as long as he’s a starter — not too shabby the way Griese is throwing. Take him if you are a Galloway owner, but you might be able to wait otherwise. He did have 138 yards against Chicago.

Justin McCareins, WR Tennessee Titans

If he is healthy and Justin Gage remains out this week, he might be the best receiving option the Titans have, which makes him pretty far down the list but he runs out on the field and tries to catch the ball. If you have a bye week in a deep league, you might not be able to be picky.

Jordy Nelson, WR Green Bay Packers

I got my eye on you, kid. Show me what those big hands can do, and you just might make a squad as my WR3.

And because rumors make friends in fantasy football…

Brady Quinn, QB Cleveland Browns

If Derek Anderson can’t get it done against Cincinnati, it might be the final nail in his fluke coffin. Quinn might get his shot.

Dan Orlovsky or Drew Stanton, QB Detroit Lions

Kitna hurt his knee in the last game, and the Lions might actually start looking towards the future. Orlovsky is the next guy in line, but Stanton’s got that bold “I’m supposed to be your guy” quality that screams “rebuilding.” In the immediate future, Orlovsky probably gets the judgment call in this one and tries to make up the 21-point deficit for the Lions. If you are deep at QB with a roster spot to spare, stash and grab. Whoever starts in Detroit is worthy of fantasy consideration just because they have so much invested in their passing game.

No one’s really worth ignoring at this point, so let’s talk…

Guys you should have taken by now:

Steve Slaton, RB Houston Texans — could be the guy in Houston moving forward

Chris Perry, RB Cincinnati Bengals – getting most of the carries and scored against two tough defenses already this season

Guys you can consider dropping:

Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers — Where are those two TE sets of dominance Mike Martz? Vernon Davis is not a starting TE anymore. Two big games with no-show performances. Bench until further notice or replace.

Ted Ginn, Jr., WR Miami Dolphins — I don’t think he knows he plays. Maybe he is just outrunning Pennington’s arm? If you can do better on the wire, you should.

Vince Young, QB Tennessee Titans – As much as I like him, you can afford to let him hang in the wind a few weeks until the QB situation shakes out for the Titans

Justin Fargas, RB Oakland Raiders – Injury or no injury, he might never get back on the field with Bush/McFadden there to tear things up

Alge Crumpler, RE Tennessee Titans — If you can find him on your roster, you are doing better than the Titans. They can’t find him on the field.

Kenny Watson, RB Cincinnati Bengals — not really threatening Chris Perry much right now

Kevin Jones, RB Chicago Bears — all they know is Forte in Chicago

Courtney Taylor, WR Seattle Seahawks — you know what will happen when Engram and Branch return

Dude… Ronnie Brown

You knew it was coming — the “Dude” mention, not the five touchdowns against the New England Patriots.

Brown, who probably sat on your bench this week, gave owners a lovely surprise when he ran in four touchdowns with 113 yards rushing against a defense that hadn’t given up a single rushing touchdown this season, and as if that wasn’t enough (and to anger all Chad Pennington owners, a sour lot already), Ronnie Brown threw a touchdown pass to Anthony Fasano.

Apparently, Bill Belichick doesn’t watch a lot of Arkansas games. Maybe he should start. The direct snap drove the New England defense wild all day. I guess they put so much faith in a quarterback to win that they cannot fathom a QB being removed from the play.

From the Palm Beach Post:

“They outplayed us. They outcoached us,” Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. “They obviously deserved to win.”

Who could have imagined that Bill Belichick would be uttering those words after their win streak was put to an end…at home in New England…to the Miami Dolphins…for the Dolphins’ first win of the season?

Sunday’s performance even made Ricky Williams get all Ricky-like.

Also from the Palm Beach Post:

Williams, though, said he saw this kind of performance coming. He explained with a story about growing wheat.

“You plant the seed, and the time between when you see nothing and when you see the sprout is just one day – it can happen just like that,” he said. “We just have to keep on working and reaping our harvest.”

I can imagine he knows a lot about growing plants.

For the whole story on the game, check out the Associated Press video report (below).

A Fool and His Money on 2008 Futures [Win Totals and Over Unders]

Prior to the first snap this season, Chadam and Nick got together and picked a handful of teams that each compulsive gambler believed would perform above or below Vegas’ predicted win total. I locked these picks away in a vault, buried beneath the ground and protected by two very angry, alcoholic monkeys and a crafty ninja cat.

Now that the season is in Week 4, it’s probably safe for me to reveal their picks so that we can mock them as their predictions look like horrible calls later this season. If there is a tie, Nick and Chadam will face the monkeys in a death match with the ninja cat as referee.

Keep in mind that all these picks were made prior to the first snap in Week 1 — prior to Tom Brady’s injury, the Chargers’ 0-2 start, Peyton Manning’s rusty emergence and Seattle’s loss of three receivers. It seems like that was three years ago, but it’s only been three weeks.

Nick’s Futures for the 2008 NFL Season

I’ll admit that Chadam enjoys the future bets more than me, but I saw a few that looked too good to pass up. For those who don’t know, a future bet is when you pick “over” or “under” the win total that Vegas predicts they will have for the season.

Here’s my list of future picks for this season with the number of games Vegas thinks they will win this season and my opinion on how many wins that team will actually get:

San Francisco 49ers — 6 wins — UNDER

There is no way the 49ers get six wins this season. Their easy games against Buffalo and Miami are both on the road, they’ve written off Alex Smith and everybody there is feeling the heat. Great teams rise up under pressure; bad teams fold and hope for next year’s draft to save them.

Seattle Seahawks — 8.5 wins — OVER

Seattle is obviously past their Super Bowl prime of two years ago, but I believe Mike “The Walrus” Holmgren and Matt Hasselbeck still have enough in the tank to get nine wins. The Seahawks get at least five wins from their weak division alone plus games against Buffalo, Tampa Bay and both New Yorks. Throw in an upset of Philly or Washington, and BOOM! They just won me some money.

Denver Broncos — 7.5 wins — OVER

I was shocked to see Denver at 7.5 wins. I definitely think they will be a .500 team or better, even with San Diego in the division. They have a very winnable schedule, and their game at San Diego is the last game of the season when San Diego may not be playing starters as long as their playoff spot is locked up.

Minnesota Vikings — 8.5 wins — UNDER

I was hoping for this number to be higher since everybody seems to be so high on “Purple Jesus” Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen and the up-and-coming Vikings. Yes, they are good in the trenches and have a stud running back, but what happens when Peterson gets injured and they have to count on their non-existent passing game. Also, their murderous schedule has games against the Colts, Titans, Saints, Houston and Jacksonville.

Carolina Panthers — 7.5 wins — OVER

I like these guys to rebound now that lovebirds Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith are back together, albeit starting in Week 3. I like their schedule and new RB Jonathan Stewart, and I just generally like to root for Steve Smith because he still gets nervous and throws up in a bucket before games.

That’s where Nick stands. The Seahawks and 49ers picks might come back to get him. Seeing where he feels the teams will fall this year, let’s see what Chadam has to offer.

Chadam’s Futures for the 2008 NFL Season

Minnesota Vikings — 8.5 games — UNDER

If I was Vegas, I would set this number at 5.5 games. The Vikings will be terrible because Tarvaris Jackson will play like Tarvaris Jackson, and those fantasy football managers who draft Peterson ahead of Westbrook will get what they deserve. Enjoy the top-three draft pick next year, Vikings fans.

Jacksonville Jaguars — 10 games — OVER

I swear I chose my over/unders before I read Bill Simmons’ NFL preview. Whatever. That dude got beat by his pregnant wife for two years in a row making picks. This division is murder row, but I really like the Jags’ game plan — tough D, explosive run game and a passing game strong enough to keep defenses honest. I think they’ll be a Wild Card shoo-in; unlike Bill, I don’t see them toppling the Colts just yet.

Seattle Seahawks — 8.5 games — UNDER

I guess someone has to win this division, right? They’ll win the NFC West with seven wins and get mauled in the first round. It sucks to be you if you had a late July or early August draft and chose Matt Hasselbeck as your starting QB in fantasy football. No receivers or offensive line, and Julius Jones as your strongest offensive threat? Thanks, but no thanks.

Green Bay Packers — 8.5 games — OVER

This is my dark horse Super Bowl choice. I don’t think they’ll drop off at all with Rodgers. The defense is in the top five, and that offense is littered with quality players. Besides, you can count on getting at least five wins from their six NFC North games, right?

Kansas City Chiefs — 5.5 games — UNDER

Has there ever been a top-10 RB that people hate to own more than Larry Johnson? This guy could get 350 carries for 700 yards and 3 TDs, and nobody would bat an eye. If you’re starting QB makes you pine for the days of Damon Huard, you might as well start looking forward to spring training.

New York Jets — 8 games — OVER

B-R-E-T-T! Brett! Brett! Brett! This team has probably been talked about too much. We all know about the QB and offensive line upgrades. Just because those reasons for improvement are overplayed doesn’t make them any less true though. They’ll get nine or ten wins and a Wild Card spot.

Chadam’s Jacksonville and Jets might prove to be his downfall, but we’ll see where things stand at the end of the season.

There you have it. Nick and Chadam’s future picks for 2008. Only time will tell who hits on all their futures. Stay tuned to the Fools. I’m going to try and squeeze past the drunken monkeys to put these picks back in the vault for safekeeping before they wake up bitter and hungover.

A Fool and His Money in Week 3

Last week, Nick and I were on fire. We had identical picks for 12 of the 15 games, and in those games, the two of us went 8-3 with one push.

Sadly, I lost the three picks on which we disagreed. After a sterling 11-3-1 record in Week 2, Nick is now up by three games.

Before we get started, let me explain a bit of what goes on behind the curtain.

While we don’t discuss our picks before we send them in to Jacob each week, Nick and I do watch football together on Sundays with all of our friends and participate in a mutual fantasy football league (with Jacob). It should come as no surprise that our picks and our logic are often similar, but no worries here. I’m going to beat Nick like he owes me money this week.

Here are some stats from the season thus far:

Home Team Winning Outright: 16-15
Favorites: 19-12
Home Team Against the Spread (ATS): 14-16-1
Favorites ATS: 15-14-1


Nothing out of the ordinary. The favorites are winning roughly two-thirds of the games, and the spread splits are very even. We’ll see if the trends continue in Week 3.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Chadam Takes: FALCONS (-5.5) over Chiefs

I wonder if Nick is doubling down on the Chiefs after last week. My condolences go out to L.J. owners — the situation in Kansas City has “Moss in Oakland” written all over it.

Nick Takes: FALCONS (-5.5) over Chiefs

I placed my faith in the Chiefs last week, and they tomahawked any hope I had of winning my bet early on. The Falcons are competing, and I expect Michael “The Burner” Turner to have another good game closer to his Week 1 performance than his Week 2 one.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills

Chadam Takes: BILLS (-9.5) over Raiders

The Raiders should be getting more points here, especially considering this game is at Buffalo. How long will it be until teams start throwing 11 men in the box against McFadden?

Nick Takes: BILLS (-9.5) over Raiders

The Bills look like they are for real. They’ve beaten two playoff teams from last year convincingly. I don’t expect them to have much trouble with the Raiders while at home. A preemptive congrats to Marshawn Lynch owners in Week 3.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Chadam Takes: BEARS (-3) over Buccaneers

Even with Hester doubtful for this game, I have to go with Chicago. This one won’t be a barn burner. The over/under is 35.5 points, and I’m thinking less than 30 points will be scored in this game.

Nick Takes: BEARS (-3) over Buccaneers

This game will set the tone for the first half of the season for each of these teams. Both these teams have decent running games, great defenses and QBs they wish they didn’t have to start. The Bears are at home, and that makes the difference in my mind.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Chadam Takes: Texans (+5) over TITANS

Albert Haynesworth is a monster. That being sad, I think people are sleeping on the Texan’s offense after they faced a great Pittsburgh D and took the fantasy back burner with the unexpected bye week.

Nick Takes: Texans (+5) over TITANS

The Titans have looked really good so far this season, but as a Hurricane Ike evacuee who still hasn’t been able to return home, I have to make the homer pick with the Texans. Houston will need some points from their defense and special teams to make this upset happen.

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings

Chadam Takes: Panthers (+3.5) over VIKINGS

The Panthers have looked surprisingly good in the first two weeks. With Adrian Peterson limited and potentially out, this pick is a no-brainer. Here’s the real question: how good is Carolina?

Nick Takes: Panthers (+3.5) over VIKINGS

Talk about no respect. The 2-0 Panthers are underdogs against the 0-2 Vikings. I was liking the Vikings in this one until I saw that, and then I heard they are panicking and starting their backup QB, Gus Frerotte. I remember when I was younger, my dad told me only an idiot would bet on Gus Frerotte. Well, Dad, I’m trying…

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Chadam Takes: PATRIOTS (-13) over Dolphins

I really don’t like giving two TDs, but it’s Chad Pennington for crying out loud. Besides, I am warming up to the underdog role the Patriots are taking. Here’s to hoping the home team dominates.

Nick Takes: PATRIOTS (-13) over Dolphins

The Patriots needed some time to get over their long lost lover, Brady, but now it’s time for everything to click with their newest pretty boy, Matt Cassel. Consider this the honeymoon. I’m expecting the Patriots to put up about 50 points in this slaughter game.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants

Chadam Takes: GIANTS (-13) over Bengals

Wow, now that is a spread! I’m only laying the points because I really don’t believe in Palmer anymore. Is he even a top-12 quarterback in real life? Look at his stats for last year minus the insane Week 2 Cleveland game, and his line was 3730 yards, 20 TDs and 18 INTs. That’s Philip Rivers in 2007 (3152-21-15) or Rex Grossman in 2006 (3193-23-20). Food for thought.

Nick Takes: GIANTS (-13) over Bengals

I wonder how bad it feels to be a Bengals fan. They must be the saddest, disappointed and perplexed fans in the nation. Is that really Carson Palmer or is his sister filling in for him?

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins

Chadam Takes: Cardinals (+3) over REDSKINS

This is my favorite pick of the week, and I’m debating hitting up a sperm bank this week to get some extra cash. I’m feeling another vintage Kurt Warner game — 392 yards for three TDs and a pick. Those of you who got him late in drafts are looking pretty smart right now — two thumbs pointed at this guy! (Ed. Note: Eighth round of a 16-round, 14-team draft with less than 10 QBs off the board isn’t exactly late, champ.)

Nick Takes: REDSKINS (-3) over Cardinals

I was looking for a reason to believe in Jason Campbell, and the Redskins delivered in a comeback win against the Saints. I question how the Cards will fair versus a playoff-caliber opponent.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

Chadam Takes: 49ERS (-4) over Lions

What a strange game. I never really know what to do when two crappy teams play against each other. I think that San Francisco has a better chance of stopping Kitna & Co. than Detroit has of stopping Gore.

Nick Takes: Lions (+4) over 49ERS

The Lions might be the most talented perennial loser there is in the NFL. They have some sick receivers in “Megatron” (Calvin Johnson) and Roy Williams. Remember when Roy Williams admitted to stiffing pizza delivery guys? That was awesome. I’m picking the Lions just for that.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Chadam Takes: SEAHAWKS (-9) over Rams

And I will never back the stupid Rams again. (Ed. Note: Chadam picked the Rams last week.) The only other way you could convince me to take Seattle and give nine points is if they were playing Notre Dame. If I set the over/under for sacks on Marc Bulger at seven, would you take the over? I would.

Nick Takes: Rams (+9) over Seahawks

Does anybody actually want to watch this game? I expect the Seahawks to win, but they don’t deserve to be favored by nine points over anyone. I’m sure Chadam won’t take the Rams three weeks in a row, so I’ll take them for the sake of being different than him. Chadam and I only differed on three picks last week, and I was right in all three cases.

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos

Chadam Takes: BRONCOS (-5.5) over Saints

Wow, what an offense out there in Denver. Congratulations on making the fantasy playoffs, Cutler owners. I’ll be teasing the hell out of this game.

Nick Takes: BRONCOS (-5.5) over Saints

Is it considered jumping on the bandwagon if I’ve picked them to win their first two weeks? I don’t care, but I’m picking them until they prove me wrong. And will someone please tell Drew Brees to throw Shockey the ball! I reached for Shockey in my fantasy league, and he is not proving me correct so far. (Still, my fantasy team is 2-0.)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles

Chadam Takes: EAGLES (-3) over Steelers

This one is the game of the week, and I could go either way with this pick. Considering the minor questions surrounding Roethlisberger’s health, I’m siding with the home team in this one.

Nick Takes: EAGLES (-3) over Steelers

This game is probably the toughest to pick this week. I like both teams, but the stupid Steelers defied normal logic last week and didn’t kick a field goal late in the game that would have covered the spread. That bad karma is coming back to them this week with a loss to an in-state rival, the Eagles.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Chadam Takes: Jaguars (+5.5) over COLTS

With three of the Colt’s O linemen injured and their defense (sans Sanders) looking suddenly mediocre, this game doesn’t look as obvious as it might seem given Jacksonville’s struggles the first two weeks.

Nick Takes: COLTS (-5.5) over Jaguars

Looking over my picks, I like the home teams a lot this week. That’s precisely why I like the Colts to cover in this game. They also get Dallas Clark back, which I think will be a big boost. The Jags will have a hint of desperation in their play calling this week that will backfire on them.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Chadam Takes: RAVENS (-2.5) over Browns

While I think the Browns will bounce back soon, I’ll go against them for one more week. Would people be worried about Braylon Edwards if he hadn’t dropped that 53-yard TD pass in Week 1? I’m buying him. No worries.

Nick Takes: Browns (+2.5) over RAVENS

I don’t like the Browns, but I think they can beat the rookie-led Ravens in this one. The Browns desperately need for Braylon Edwards to break out of his slump in this game.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-3) over PACKERS

Too bad Rodgers can’t face the Lions every week, huh? This game is another favorite spread of mine. Dallas is for real.

Nick Takes: Cowboys (-3) over PACKERS

This one is going to be a good game to watch. I like the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers a lot, but so far, they have only beat winless teams. The Cowboys have looked unstoppable with Marion the Barbarian and Owens. I think the Cowboys get this one, but I’m guessing we’ll see a rematch of these two teams in January.

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers

Updated: Corrected home team and spread on Jets at Chargers. I won’t point fingers.

Chadam Takes: Jets (+8.5) over CHARGERS

I’m still on the Jets bandwagon, so I gotta take the points in this one. While Sproles is good, he’s not even close to a healthy L.T. The Chargers might win this one but definitely not by nine points.

Nick Takes: Jets (+8.5) over CHARGERS

I’ve been flip-flopping on this pick all week. I like the Chargers to win, but I don’t know what to expect from Brett Favre. His gunslinger attitude will either keep it close or blow it wide open. I’m going to say he does enough in the fourth quarter to keep it close.

Last Week:

Nick: 11-3-1
Chadam: 8-6-1

Current Standings after Week 2:

Chadam: 16-14-1
Nick: 19-11-1

Week 3 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

Obviously, things change in fantasy football. There’s no Tom Brady, and therefore, no Randy Moss. Offenses in Seattle, Cincinnati and Cleveland are in shambles. Jacksonville keeps turning it over, and the Denver Broncos might have the most explosive offense of 2008.

Shanny, we knew you had it in you. I won’t even say that I called it. (I CALLED IT), but it was right there in front of our noses. This year might be a competition between T.O. and Baby T.O. for the top wide receiver spot.

Who else is hot this week? (Well, besides the obvious.)

Hot Hands

J.T. O’Sullivan, Bryant Johnson, Isaac Bruce vs. Lions: We are starting bold. The 49ers face off against Mike Martz’s former home. I think Detroit probably knows a lot of Martz’s schemes, but Martz also knows how to exploit the Detroit defense — not like that information is really top secret. I like this one to be high scoring and crazy. If you have J.T. O’Sullivan on your roster, this week and next week against the Saints look like his best starts of the year.

Frank Gore vs. Lions: Detroit cannot stop the run. Gore will get some action.

Jon Kitna, Calvin Johnson vs. 49ers: An explosive contest and a weak secondary make the interception-prone QB a nice play this week.

All Your Broncos vs. Saints: Jay Cutler and his boys manhandled the Chargers defense last week. They’ll do the same to the Saints. Brandon Marshall could break the record for most receptions in a game in this one. I like it. The only exception to this rule is Selvin Young, who might be only a yardage guy from here on out.

Chris Johnson vs. Texans: Fast Willie Parker had 3 TDs, and this kid is faster.

Reggie Bush vs. Broncos: He’ll be relied upon as a target against the corners in Denver. Bush will have to pull some big plays to win, and Darren Sproles made the Broncos look they were standing still a few times last week.

Steve Smith vs. Vikings: Just in case you forgot he was on your roster. If he’s not on your roster and you want to get crazy, send a trade offer to see if you can smuggle him away before he even sees the field. With Randy Moss gone, Steve Smith might be the only challenger to Terrell Owens and Baby T.O. for the top WR spot.

Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw vs. Bengals: Destroy, Brandon Jacobs! Destroy! Ahmad Bradshaw even makes a decent start since he’s forgotten what he learned in kindergarten and no longer plans on sharing touchdowns. What does Jacobs have to do for a touchdown? Run over TWO safeties. I think Jacobs gets his first score this week. The Bengals defensive players are only on the roster because they are trying out for the offense.

Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress vs. Bengals: Surely, Eli and Plax will join in on the fun as well. You can’t just let Brandon Jacobs run the ball all day.

Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Matt Cassel vs. Dolphins: This week, Moss wakes up. He still remembers what to do when the ball comes his way.

Buffalo Bills D/ST vs. Raiders: JaMarcus Russell against the aggressive, healthy Buffalo defense. *Salivating* If the Oakland cornerbacks come to play, this game could become a contest to control the clock. Buffalo’s schedule gets good from here.

Philip Rivers vs. Jets: With L.T. slowed by his injury, Rivers could look to find Chambers again. They’ll want to put plenty of points on the board to keep themselves out of trouble in this one.

Matt Hasselbeck, John Carlson vs. Rams: New wide receivers and an easy day against the Rams could be all that Hasselbeck needs to come alive again. He might be the slow-starting Brees of 2007. Even though Hasselbeck gets new hands this week, he just might be growing fond of Carlson’s. Look for the rookie TE to have a decent day against the Rams — who doesn’t?

Julius Jones vs. Rams: Jones could have a similar day to his 127 yards and a TD against San Francisco.

Bubble Boys

Michael Turner vs. Chiefs: Injury could hinder his performance, but if he’s 100 percent, Turner could tear the Chiefs run defense up just like Michael Bush and Darren McFadden did last week. Pop this bubble if you see him off the injury report come Friday.

Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings vs. Cowboys: If Rodgers wants to win this one, he’s probably going to have to air it to stay ahead of Romo. I respect the Dallas corners even if they have given up a lot of yardage. Rodgers isn’t going to have as big a week as he did against Detroit, but he should do something.

Randy McMichael vs. Seahawks: Seattle might be on the worst defenses that the Rams face all year, but they should still get after Bulger. McMichael could have another Week 1 performance where he reaps the benefit of Bulger’s rushed passing. It’s a risk I’m willing to take unless, of course, I have a better option.

Brett Favre vs. Chargers: Favre’s risky, vertical throwing could get him into trouble against this secondary. The Chargers are hungry for a win after they had the Broncos’ game stolen by ‘Roid Ref. You might consider giving Favre a week off, but then again, it’s Monday night. That Stuckey guy will probably nail a TD or two down. That guy’s my nemesis.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor vs. Colts: Matt Forte didn’t need that great of an offensive line to run on the Colts. The Jags line could come together to make these two productive again, but maybe the Colts go up by so much, they don’t get a chance. I remember when this Colts-Jaguars matchup used to be a heated showdown…those were the days.

Larry Johnson vs. Falcons: L.J. is losing carries to Jamaal Charles, and I hated Charles when he was a Longhorn. Charles is just a fast pair of legs with unsure hands, but L.J. is an unsure set of legs with fast hands. (That means he’s good at magic tricks like making a five-yard play into a one-yard gain.) If Johnson’s yards per carry decreases, it’s because he’s running backwards. Might be time to put Charles on your roster.

Cold Shoulders

Lee Evans vs. Raiders: I know Jay Cutler exposed the Raiders lazy cornerback play, but Evans will get blanketed by he who cannot be named, Nnamdi Asomugha. While Evans is back to fantasy relevance this year, he should have a quiet one this week.

Pierre Thomas, Deuce McAllister vs. Broncos: You can run on Denver, but who is doing the running? If Deuce really does get worked into this rotation, it just muddies the value of Thomas. Are they playing Denver or is this Shanahan coaching their run game too?

Earnest Graham vs. Bears: He had a nice score last week, but this week’s Bears defense won’t let him get loose. He’ll have yardage, but I wouldn’t count on much more than that.

Ryan Grant vs. Cowboys: Until he’s healthy, he’s not going to have a good game. Against the Cowboys defense, he’ll need a good hamstring to be effective.

Steve Slaton, Chris Taylor vs. Titans: The Titans eat running backs for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Don’t try. Just don’t.

Chad Pennington vs. Patriots: Lacking their star corner, the Patriots still make it tough to throw on them. It won’t matter if Pennington has a My Size Barbie arm. Putting the ball through the air is just going to be hard.

All Raiders besides Darren McFadden vs. Bills: Buffalo will attack JaMarcus Russell from all sides. This game should show everyone that Buffalo is worth carrying on your roster as a starting defense, and it doesn’t get bad for the rest of the season.

Derek Anderson, Jamal Lewis vs. Ravens: One more week of pain.

David Garrard vs. Colts: See above.

Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco, T.J. Houshmandzadeh vs. Giants: The New York RB wrecking crew controls the clock in this one and will require that the Bengals put something in the air to win, but Palmer just doesn’t have it right now. The Bengals passing game is bench-worthy until I see a spark.

Green Bay Packers D/ST vs. Cowboys: It’s just not a good idea to play your defense against the Cowboys this season.

Sleeper candidates:

I’ll take a few shots in the dark this week, and we’ll see how that works out for me.

Michael Pittman vs. Saints: When the Broncos get close, look for Pittman to punch them into the end zone all day. Don’t get too confident. The Saints might let Royal and Marshall finish every catch at the goal post, but Pittman could get you a score or two in this one if you are hurting at RB.

Jerious Norwood vs. Chiefs: If Turner is slowed, Norwood could have a big day. McFadden used his speed to torch the Chiefs last week, and Norwood has some speed of his own.

Post any sit/start questions in the comments for help setting your roster this week. I have to get back to practicing my route running with Matt Hasselbeck.