• Injuries are more random than your brain might think

    by  • September 7, 2012 • 0 Comments

    Despite his doucheyness, I am a big fan of  Fantasy Douche’s thoughtful perspective on the fantasy football game and how we perceive it. On that note, I’ll highlight a great point he made this preseason in explaining recency bias in terms of calling players injury prone.  In many cases, our brains are fooling us.

    The problem is this:   If a player has had a lot of recent injuries then our expectation is that they will have a lot more.  If a player hasn’t had many recent injuries then our expectation is that they will remain healthy.  That’s as complicated as our thinking process gets and I don’t think it’s particularly enlightened or anything that we should be putting a lot of stock in.

    You can’t go back and change how you drafted this season, but let Douche’s words sink in this season. And ponder this…if recency bias affects the way we think of players as injury prone, how does it affect who we decide to grab off the waiver wire? And how does it influence us to jump on the wrong players when they have a big week only to be disappointed by their lack of production after that breakout performance?

    Brandon Lloyd, Fred Davis, and The 2012 Quarterback Craze

    by  • September 4, 2012 • 0 Comments

    I’m late to the party, but Lance Zierlein of The Sideline View hosted this Google+ Hangout with two of the great minds in fantasy football, Sigmund Bloom and Matt Waldman, to discuss the most overrated and underrated players as we close out the 2012 fantasy football draft season.

    Their conversation touches on early hype for quarterbacks this season, Dallas Cowboys concerns, and why you should avoid taking wide receivers in the first two rounds. I also like what Zierlein, Waldman, and Bloom say about Brandon Lloyd as they break down the Patriots 2012 offense considering Lloyd was one of my big targets this year.

    If you still have any drafts, there are a few strategy points made throughout this video, including drafting based on how you value a player rather than consensus value, which is something you have to learn if you want to get the guys you really like on your roster. It’s lengthy but worth the watch as you prepare for your final drafts or evaluate your roster for the season ahead.

    Don’t let Russell Wilson start the year on your waiver wire

    by  • September 3, 2012 • 0 Comments

    If you’re looking for a bang-or-bust QB2 to stash behind an elite QB1, put a claim in on Russell Wilson. The Seattle offense may not be explosive, but Wilson showed his ability to produce big fantasy weeks this preseason. If he does surprise us all by Cam Newton-ing the first few weeks of the season, you’re going to want to have him on your roster.

    As Fantasy Douche explained in his thinking on quarterbacks:

    The thing about quarterbacks who will tuck the ball and run is that they’re like a waterbed. Push it down in one spot and it pops up in another. They’ll pass first if they can, but if their receivers are covered or if they’re unsure, they’ll just run and get a first down. It doesn’t take very long to rack up 40 rushing yards when the QB does this.

    There’s a lot to like about the rookie quarterback no matter how the Seattle offense comes together. So even if you already have two quarterbacks on your roster, consider stashing Wilson for the first few weeks of the season.

    Takeaways from the 2011 Fantasy Football Season

    by  • August 24, 2012 • 0 Comments

    Cam Newton after scoring a touchdown

    I pity the fool that doesn’t learn from his past mistakes, and 2011 broke a few of the fantasy football molds. No Peyton Manning. The Texans made the playoffs. Rex Grossman is good? Okay…for a few weeks, he was good. And let’s not forget Reggie Bush was a feature back, and Cam Newton was...

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    The Case for Aaron Hernandez as a Sleeper Tight End

    by  • July 23, 2012 • 1 Comment

    Aaron Hernandez

    If I’m going to say Rob Gronkowski might not be all Yo Soy Fiesta in New England, I should probably explain where I expect those points to go. And besides the obvious choice in Brandon Lloyd, there’s another tight end in New England who had a not-too-shabby year in 2011. For some reason, ESPN...

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    Why I Would Draft Jimmy Graham Over Rob Gronkowski

    by  • July 21, 2012 • 2 Comments

    Those of you who follow me on Twitter have probably seen my running commentary on all of the ESPN Fantasy Football Roundtable discussions. Many of ESPN’s Roundtables are pretty straightforward and were easy to discuss in just the 140 characters that Twitter allows, but a few are worthy of meatier discussion. That’s what I’d like...

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