• Fantasy Draft Day Pick or Pass: Top 24 Running Backs by ADP

    by  • July 17, 2009 • Draft Strategy, Player Rankings • 20 Comments

    Many a fantasy football site will give you rankings. Most of the time, that’s enough for you to make your decisions when drafting a fantasy team, but I like to add a little depth to my rankings by incorporating the “players to avoid” tag.

    You see, not every player is desirable, even if they are the No. 5-ranked running back on the board. Some bad situations may not compel experts to rank a player lower, and at times, there’s no logical reason behind disliking a player other than that icky feeling you get when he’s the next player in your rankings. Regardless, we still have every right to avoid a guy in the draft.

    If I had only listened to that inner “pick or pass” feeling when it came time for me to make my first round selection in 2007, I might have never taken Larry Johnson with a mid-first-round pick … and that would have made all the difference.

    For this first addition of “pick or pass,” I gathered the top 24 running backs ranked by average draft position (ADP) over at Fantasy Football Calculator to break down. The rankings were current as of July 15, 2009. If you have any more reservations about players that I don’t touch on here or just find yourself wanting to share your agreement, please tell me about your concerns and tips in the comments.

    Pick or Pass: Top 24 Running Backs as Drafted in Mock Drafts

    1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings – ADP: 1.01 – PICK
    So what if he is the unanimous No. 1 running back? Some guys still don’t love him first overall. No one says you have to take him — even if you league boos (and they will). Despite my personal distrust of Peterson, I would “pick” Peterson at the No. 1 because of his explosive potential and the huge tradebait he becomes if you want to do a little preseason maneuvering before the first game of the season. You can’t go wrong with the player everyone expects to be the best, right?

    2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP: 1.03 – PICK
    Everybody loves the bowling-ball receiving back from the Jacksonville Jaguars. While I dislike him here at the No. 2 spot, he’s still a “pick” for me somewhere in the top five. Unless the offensive line pulls another Humpty Dumpty routine, Jones-Drew should have all the chances in the world to put up RB1-worthy stats. Then again, if you’re not a Jacksonville fan … you may hold off on Jones-Drew at the No. 2 because we all know he’ll still share the rock with Greg Jones this season, even if it’s not as much as he shared it with Fred Taylor.

    3. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons – ADP: 1.03 – PICK
    He’s just barely a “pick” because he’s such a safe choice. Yes, his schedule is tougher. Yes, he ran many, many times last season. Yes, his quarterback’s other weapons are improved this season, but look again at how many chances Michael Turner had near the goal line last year. Turner can only benefit from more movement up and down the field, so don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on him anywhere in the top five.

    4. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears –   ADP: 1.04 – PICK
    The little rookie back that could last season, Forte was the definition of consistent. If he didn’t get a touchdown, he got 100+ yards — and he always got 100+ yards. Jay Cutler under center should shake things up, but much like Turner, making the weapons more dangerous only makes me like Forte more. He’s a “pick” anywhere in the top five as well.

    5. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – ADP: 1.06 – PASS
    Ah, the first “pass” of the running back class rears its ugly head at No. 5. Steven Jackson is one of the most talented backs in the league, and the Rams plan to make him a workhorse this season. Still, I’m just not feeling his health and the team play in St. Louis. The Rams have very little receiver talent, a banged-up veteran at quarterback in Bulger and not much to make opposing defenses look at anyone but … you guessed it … Jackson. He may get plenty of carries and quite a few yards, but I’ll “pass.”

    6. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers – ADP: 1.08 – PASS
    Sermons have been written on why LaDainian Tomlinson faded last season and how much you need to believe in him this year, but they’re all blasphemy, my friend. If it looks like the end of his career and it talks like the end of his career, it’s probably a duck … and perhaps I missed something in the argument I was trying to make there. Here’s the point: he’s aging, Darren Sproles is franchise-tagged and looking to impress his way out of San Diego and the Chargers window for a Super Bowl victory is closing faster than Tom Brady can buy new flower boxes. If L.T. stays healthy for the entire season, he’s likely to put up numbers close to his old averages, but this high in the draft, I’d still “pass.”

    7. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – ADP: 1.08 – PICK
    The reason you’d pass on a guy like Steven Jackson or L.T. is right here at No. 7. Chris Johnson has the speed to burn you, and the team to grind you into the ground. I’m not scared of LenDale White unless I’m covered in donut glaze. Johnson is just the kind of young running back in a run-oriented offense that I would want to lead me into battle each week — fantasy battle, that is. I’d pick him before Jackson, L.T. or DeAngelo Williams.

    8. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers – ADP: 1.11 – PASS
    “Pass, pass, pass.” I went into more detail about how painful DeAngelo’s second season as a starter could be when I compared him to Michael Turner in Truth or Fiction. Here’s the short version: a better Jonathan Stewart means fewer carries to go around, a tougher schedule means it’ll be more difficult to score touchdowns and a weaker offensive line means less holes to run through. I’ll “pass” on Williams this season because he’s just not worth the risk.

    9. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans – ADP: 1.11 – PICK
    Slaton had a solid amount of carries close to the red zone just as Michael Turner did last season, but Slaton was basically the only running back left standing in Houston for most of the season. With bigger backs like Chris Brown and the new guy, Jeremiah Johnson, around, he may lose those touches, but he won’t lose that speed that kept him on the field last season. Slaton was one of the best surprises of 2008, and I’d “pick” him again in 2009.

    10. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – ADP: 2.01 – PICK
    It’s all a bit of a toss up when it comes to the 49ers. All those words from the coaches about a running-based offense is great, but I want to make sure they’re actually going to put points on the board this season. Gore should tote the rock without too much sharing, and unlike the Rams and Steven Jackson, the 49ers should have enough other weapons to make Gore productive. I’d “pick” him.

    11. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 2.04 – PASS
    Westy’s been an injury concern for several seasons, but this year, I might actually count that against him. His offseason surgeries and the addition of LeSean McCoy are just enough to make me want to hold off on him this year. I’d take him as a mid-range RB2, but I’ll “pass” here with bigger fish still left in the sea.

    12. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants – ADP: 2.05 – PICK
    If the word “pick” could sound more intimidating and bulky, I would use it here. Jacobs is a quality pick for the second round. Without Derrick Ward, he should have more yardage than he did last season. Regardless, we know he scores touchdowns. Without Plaxico Burress, one can only hope that the Giants forget how to do anything but run this season.

    13. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins – ADP: 2.07 – PICK
    Portis took his shots last season and still came out on the other side. I’m not exactly sure how he managed to play through all his injuries, but the man is consistent — one of the most consistent at his position over the years. I like him a tad less this season just because of his workload, even though I don’t think that it will slow his productivity. What does concern me is the team around him coming into this season. Jason Campbell is in his “make or break” year in Washington after all the trade talks this offseason, and there’s talk of Colt Brennan getting a shot before season’s end if Campbell can’t prove his worth. That spells a hard year for Portis, and it’s just enough to tempt me to take Barber instead. Portis still deserves a “pick.”

    14. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys – ADP: 2.11 – PICK
    The touchdown machine in Dallas runs only for this man. Barber could be in line for more this season if the Cowboys move towards a more run-focused attack. Even if they don’t, the running game has always made Barber productive. Normally a first round back in the parts where I draft (Texas), I see no reason not to make him a “pick.”

    15. Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins – ADP: 3.04 – PASS
    For being the quarterback in the Wildcat and the “starting” running back for Miami, I expected more from Ronnie Brown last season. By the end of 2008, he was practically worthless. Ricky Williams is still around to demand some carries, and now there is talk of letting Patrick Cobbs get more touches. I just don’t feel Brown here in the second/third round. I like my starting two running backs to be dependable. Sorry, Brown, I’ll “pass.”

    16. Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints – ADP: 3.06 – PICK
    I’m surprised to see Thomas trending this high in ADP since most rankings project him as a fourth-round acquisition. He’s a quality running back and deserving of the ranking … but really? No. 16 at running back? With the scoreboard the Saints put together and the struggles of Reggie Bush, I don’t expect Thomas to disappoint. He’ll be worth this “pick.”

    17. Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – ADP: 3.09 – PICK
    Oh, how low the mighty have fallen. Grant was thought of as a top-10 with upside that could make him a top-five last season. Then injury struck. Grant’s still high on my list, and I’ll give him credit for finishing strong in 2008. I’ll “pick” him here and consider him better than the likes of Ronnie Brown.

    18. Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – ADP: 3.11 – PASS
    This is it! This is Kevin’s year to carry the rock. Can’t you hear the screams right this moment? If Matthew Stafford gets the nod, the Lions are definitely going to be running the ball this season, but I haven’t become a Smith believer just yet. That doesn’t mean he won’t blow up this year, but it does mean I’m willing to take my chances elsewhere. The move to a new style of running offense, away from what Smith is used to, doesn’t make me feel good about his chances this season. “Pass.”

    19. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills – ADP: 4.05 – PICK
    Suspension or not, Lynch is one of the grinding backs in this league. No. 19 is still a little rich for my tastes with those games missed at the beginning of the season, and Fred Jackson has a great deal more upward mobility as the guy who will start those games and contribute all season. But Lynch is the guy in Buffalo, and with an improved offensive attack — even if their O-line has taken a step back — he’s worthy of a “pick.”

    20. Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints – ADP: 4.06 – PASS
    He’s a better receiver than a running back, so unless you have a sucker who would trade you a real gem in a package for this circus show, I’d “pass” outside of PPR leagues. I am not convinced he can stay healthy enough to fill the role of a running back, and as a gimmick player, his value is limited. But if he falls into a bargain round, I can’t say I would still refuse him.

    21. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos – ADP: 4.10 – PASS
    I’m not a believer in the new Denver coach, and I’m not a fan of rookie running backs when they are accompanied by a real pack — and I do mean “pack” — of veterans. Even if Moreno wins the starting job, how much of it will he win? I’d rather take the “wait and see” approach with KnowMo. (Does anyone call him “KnowMo” now? Because I really want to now … I won’t pick him “KnowMo.”)

    22. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – ADP: 4.12 – PICK
    He didn’t get his shot last season with all the injury trouble and that dastardly Justin Fargas, but with a season under his belt, I’d “pick” him to earn his place among the high-performing rookies from last season. No one likes to fall behind, and McFadden has plenty of ground to make up.

    23. Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: 5.02 – PICK
    All alone in Tampa Bay with no “Earth” or “Fire” for his “Wind,” Ward should have plenty of opportunities to show why the Giants used him as much as they did last season. Ward is a “pick,” even if he ends up getting a “change of pace” tag and yields red zone chances to Earnest Graham. He’ll earn his time just like he did with Brandon Jacobs.

    24. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – ADP: 5.03 – PICK
    From top-five to No. 24? Even with rookie Donald Brown breathing down his neck, I have no fear in taking Addai in the third round and beyond. The Colts’ offensive line was pretty terrible last season without Jeff Saturday. A healthy Peyton and a healthy Saturday make for a good Sunday for Addai. He’s a “pick” in my book.

    Agree with my picks and passes or disagree? The comments are yours.

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    Jacob started Fantasy Football Fools in 2007 as a outlet for all the fantasy football conversations he couldn't have in-person. Since then, well...it's only gotten worse.

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    6 Pingbacks/Trackbacks

    • http://FantasyFanatics.com/ Cal Spears

      Gotta say I like your analysis here. I don't mind taking SJax and LT at 5 and 6, but I wouldn't touch Brown, Bush, or Moreno with a ten foot pole. Insert touching Bush with a ten foot pole joke here.

    • http://footballjabber.com/ Lee

      Excellent! I myself look at some of the ADP and wonder why some are being picked. For example, Ronnie Brown. Sure, he may have a decent season but don't let those inflated Wildcat numbers fool you from last season. There have been a lot of “Un-defendable” plays in the history of football..until they were figured out, then they were just plays again.

    • Pingback: 13 Fantasy Football Quick Reads | Football Jabber

    • http://fantasyfootball4winners.blogspot.com/ smcs

      I'm not sure why everybody has Jackson up as high as they do. It would be a total surprise if he finished in the top 10. They guy is incredible, but the team stinks. He is way too risky for my blood. Maybe as a RB2, but not in the top 10.
      I'm still not giving up on Tomlinson. I know there is some risk there, but he was a top 15 back in my league and was hurt most of the year. He's still good enough to take a high pick for one more year. He may not be a top 3, but a top five is not out of the question.

      Scott
      http://fantasyfootball4winners.blogspot.com/

    • http://www.fantasyfootballfools.com Jacob

      And if you take away those Wildcat plays, he becomes very overrated for where he is being drafted. Brown may still be riding the hype he developed when he was the No. 1 back in fantasy for a few weeks before he was injured, and I don't see him being worthy of it until Ricky Williams is out of town. Thanks for the comment, Lee.

    • http://www.fantasyfootballfools.com Jacob

      I can respect that. Resisting the temptation to throw in one of those Bush jokes, I see both L.T. and Jackson as overvalued this season. L.T. was frustrating to own last year with his injury status, and I'm not completely convinced owners won't fall into the same trap with him this season. Jackson has never been one of my favorites since the Rams can't ever seem to let him go to work without Jackson getting injured. I just wouldn't want to take a chance on them where they are currently being drafted. Same goes for Brown.

    • http://www.fantasyfootballfools.com Jacob

      Good point, Scott. L.T. still did finish near the top of the running backs last season. I'd bet many of his owners got caught with him on their bench for at least one of his multiple TD performances though because of his injury status.

      Much like Westbrook, I'd fear L.T. this season because of his age and his potential to be inconsistent from game to game. I expect my RB1 to churn similar point totals each week with very few disappointing performances. I don't think I can trust L.T. to do that this season, but it's a call that each owner will probably have to make in the first round. Thanks for sharing your take on it.

    • ajk816

      I was offered LT for Boldin straight up. This is for this year only. Thoughts? Already keeping MBarber, Wayne and Winslow. This is a PPR league. I draft 10th with Turner, Forte, DeAngelo, Chris Johnson, Slaton, Jacobs, Calvin, Steve Smith, Westbrook, Kevin Smith, Roddie White, Bowe, Ronnie Brown, Jennings, Bush as the probable top 15. Would love some feedback.

    • http://www.fantasyfootballfools.com Jacob

      L.T. for Boldin? Even though I'd pass on L.T. in most situations, in PPR leagues, he's going to be a top-10 pick because of how involved he is in the San Diego passing game. Boldin, for all the passes he gets in Arizona, isn't among the elite of the elite receivers in the game. I'd be tempted to take this trade and take the risk on L.T. at this value — getting a first-round pick in L.T. for a third-round pick in Boldin.

      Having L.T. and Barber already on your roster would allow you to draft a top wide receiver like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Steve Smith or Greg Jennings with your 10th overall pick, or if you want a security blanket for L.T., you could grab Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson or Westbrook. You might be able to get a receiver in the first round and grab Slaton or Westbrook in the second round. How many receivers do you start in this league?

      I think I'd take this trade, ajk816.

    • ajk816

      We start 2 WR's and one RB/WR flex.

    • http://www.fantasyfootballfools.com Jacob

      If you start two wide receivers, I'd feel pretty safe doing this deal. You'd have L.T., Barber, Wayne and Winslow going into the draft, which is a pretty good foundation already.

      You'd also be able to take a receiver in the first round like Greg Jennings, Calvin Johnson or Roddy White, but don't be afraid to take another running back if someone like Forte or Slaton falls to you there. Assuming you go receiver in the first, just make sure to get some L.T. insurance in the second round by taking a quality running back.

      Good luck with your draft, ajk816.

    • smizzle24

      I just want your opinion on T. Jones. He had a great year last year with favre at the qb finishing 4th among rbs in 2008. I haven't heard much about him this year besides he is unhappy with his contract and that washington and rookie greene might steal some carries…is he worth a nod this year even without brett?

    • http://www.fantasyfootballfools.com Jacob

      I don't think Thomas Jones is going to be a complete dud this year, but he's unlikely to match his numbers from last season. Since they haven't made a move this offseason, I have to assume that the Jets are content letting Jones play out this last year of his contract and hitting the road. They'll probably look to prepare their other two backs, Leon Washington and rookie Shonn Greene, for the transition by giving them more carries this year unless Jones comes into the season on fire.

      I wouldn't target Jones specifically in your draft, but if you find him at his current ADP of 5.08, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, he's a decent value. The Jets still have one of the best offensive lines in football and should look to run the ball quite a bit this season regardless of which quarterback is under center.

      Just make sure to snag Shonn Greene late in your draft if you get Jones so that you aren't left high and dry if Jones struggles and/or causes contract drama that forces the Jets to look to the future sooner than expected. For more on Greene, see my previous post on him: http://bit.ly/15zojc

    • smizzle24

      I just want your opinion on T. Jones. He had a great year last year with favre at the qb finishing 4th among rbs in 2008. I haven't heard much about him this year besides he is unhappy with his contract and that washington and rookie greene might steal some carries…is he worth a nod this year even without brett?

    • http://www.fantasyfootballfools.com Jacob

      I don't think Thomas Jones is going to be a complete dud this year, but he's unlikely to match his numbers from last season. Since they haven't made a move this offseason, I have to assume that the Jets are content letting Jones play out this last year of his contract and hit the road. They'll probably look to prepare their other two backs, Leon Washington and rookie Shonn Greene, for the transition by giving them more carries this year unless Jones comes into the season on fire.

      I wouldn't target Jones specifically in your draft, but if you find him at his current ADP of 5.08, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, he's a decent value. The Jets still have one of the best offensive lines in football and should look to run the ball quite a bit this season regardless of which quarterback is under center.

      Just make sure to snag Shonn Greene late in your draft if you get Jones so that you aren't left high and dry if Jones struggles and/or causes contract drama that forces the Jets to look to the future sooner than expected. For more on Greene, see my previous post on him: http://bit.ly/15zojc

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