The recent track record of Week 1 surprise players isn’t good. How many have played well in Week 1 and gone on to finish as a top-shelf Fantasy option at their position? Over the last two years, the answer is two: Alfred Morris in 2012 and Julius Thomas in 2013.
I was really disappointed in the election results. I thought we were all going to write in Doug Martin, you guys! I was looking forward to finally having a cool nickname for the POTUS like Muscle Hamster.
But alas, I guess you guys care about the economy and social issues beyond just fantasy football wins. What’s wrong with you? Winning fantasy football games was my main issue this election season.
So now I’m back to my campaign strategizing for RGIII and Doug Martin in 2016. You might think Alfred Morris would be his preferred running mate, and, in a way, he is. But Morris is much more secretary of state material.
We’re going with the same format for pickups as last week. If you didn’t like it…well, you should have spoken up last week.
Week 10 Pickups
Marcel Reece is the hottest commodity this week after both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson suffered high ankle sprains in Week 9. It appears that Run DMC’s sprain is the most severe, but there have been few updates on either running back since they went down. I’d expect them to both miss at least one week. It’s likely to be longer in McFadden’s case.
In their absence, Reece inherited most of the running back duties and caught the ball out of the backfield. Reece was already a trusted part of the offense, so I expect the Raiders to lean on him while they wait on their top two backs to heal. Taiwan Jones is a burner, but the coaches don’t seem very confident in him just yet.
Considering McFadden’s history, stashing Mike Goodson, despite his injury, could also be a sneaky move if he’s unowned as he might return to duty before Run DMC and supplant Reece. The Raiders have a beautiful schedule down the stretch.
Ryan Tannehill continues to do much with a very little in the Dolphins’ offense. If Miami upgrades at receiver, he could be a more reliable fantasy start next season. This week, he faces a very generous Tennessee Titans D/ST. I expect him to put up decent numbers as a bye-week fill in this one.
Jake Locker returned to practicing this week but may not play until after the Titans’ bye week in Week 11. This Titans’ offense could use his arm and mobility at this point in the season, and he’ll likely benefit from the signs of life Chris Johnson has shown these last few weeks.
Also on the injury front, don’t forget that Beanie Wells, Cedric Benson, and Vincent Brown are all expected to return in the next few weeks from the IR. If they aren’t owned in your league, you best add them now. Benson may be the most lucrative of the bunch since Green Bay hasn’t figured out their running game in his absence.
For the running back needy, Joique Bell and Jacquizz Rodgers inconsistently produce in their respective offenses. Unfortunately, outside of PPR leagues, their value will be fairly limited unless the starters in front of them (Mikel Leshoure and Michael Turner) are injured. It doesn’t look like Rodgers is going to come close to the offseason hype train he was riding this offseason.
If you need pass catchers, Emmanuel Sanders should fill in for an injured Antonio Brown this week against the Chiefs, which makes him a solid one-week play if not more. T.Y. Hilton is in a similar situation if Donnie Avery can’t suit up for the Colts.
Best of luck in Week 10, and remember…RGIII/Martin in 2016.
It was an unusual Week 1, but at least with surprises comes a list of potential pickups to improve our fantasy teams.
Below I’ve listed some players you might consider claiming this week if they are not owned in your leagues. I’ve listed them in the order of preference, but I’ve also guesstimated what percentage of your free agent acquisition budget (FAAB) you should spend on them.
If you look closely at the percentages, you’ll notice I’ve alloted lower bids for some players who appear high on my list — most notably, Jeffery and Hill this week. Those players are the ones I consider waiver wire bargains.
You may have to bid more for them if you are really determined to have a specific player, but with no consistency established after just one week, you could try to get a steal by bidding the same low amount on many of these pickups and settling for what you get.
I’ll assume for the purposes of this waiver wire that C.J. Spiller was drafted in all leagues, but if he, for some reason, is on the market, you know what to do — go get him. He may cost you a good chunk of your FAAB to obtain, but he will probably be worth 50% or more of your budget if your willing to pay that price.
In order of preference…
Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins (25%) We’ve got some Shanahanigans in here! We would be remiss not including Washington’s leading rusher. While he’s nothing special, the Redskins’ running back will always produce. He’s a must add, but don’t risk more than 25% of your FAAB in obtaining him. You may want to sell high after he feasts on the Rams next week before he does something Shanny doesn’t approve of and rides the bench the rest of the year.
Randall Cobb, WR, Packers (15-25%)
The Packers have finally found a way to get Cobb more involved in the offense — putting him in the backfield. While he didn’t record any carries, the hybrid role they have for Cobb is worth noting. He could emerge as one of the 2012 fantasy football surprises by season’s end.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears (5%)
Jeffery has immediately become a piece of the Bears passing game, which looked productive in Week 1. He won’t be a regular contributor for your fantasy team, but he should flirt with WR3 value that could mature into more throughout his rookie season.
Stephen Hill, WR, Jets (5%)
While raw, Hill saw several targets from Sanchez in his rookie regular season debut. He may not score twice every week, but he should be owned to see if his hot start turns into a trend.
Kevin Ogletree, WR, Cowboys (10-15%)
As I’ve already explained, I have my doubts about Ogletree. Don’t blow your whole FAAB budget on him, but feel free to invest 10-15% to see what he can do the rest of the way. I suspect a healthier Jason Witten and less favorable matchup will minimize Ogletree’s role in the Dallas offense.
James Jones, WR, Packers (10%)
With Greg Jennings expected to miss Week 2, Jones should see an increased role. He’s sporadically dependable, but he should be involved and involved early if Jennings sits.
Austin Collie, WR, Colts (<5%)
He didn’t play this week, but he should be on the field in Week 2 and ready to contribute. While Reggie Wayne got all the targets in Week 1, Collie could easily takeover the No. 1 spot if he can stay on the field this year. At the price of a waiver wire pick, he’s a must stash and shouldn’t cost you much of your FAAB if you get on him before the rest of your league.
Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers (5%)
He proved his value this week, but the running back situation is so muddy in Pittsburgh that I wouldn’t fight to get a piece of him.
Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions (<5%)
Now is also the time to stash the Lions’ potential power back while he’s still on suspension. Move now and save the FAAB dollars for another bid.
Dexter McCluster, WR/RB, Chiefs (<5%)
The Chiefs offense is not as explosive as other options, but McCluster should receive plenty of targets this year from Matt Cassel. He should be owned in all PPR leagues.