Believe it or not, Peyton Hillis is the Juggernaut and More Scoring Leaders from Week 12

I believe it was Andrew Garda who started the #Juggernaut campaign for the Peyton Hillis’ nickname. Once again, it held true this week as Hillis ran over the Panthers for three touchdowns in brutal fashion. Nothing stops that guy. Nothing.

The proof of how great a nickname this is for Hillis is in the Wikipedia:

A juggernaut is a term used in the English language to describe a literal or metaphorical force regarded as unstoppable. It is often applied to a large machine or collectively to a team or group of people working together, or a growing political movement led by a charismatic leader, and often bears association with crushing or being physically destructive.

Yeah, that sounds about right.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns: 131 rushing yards and 3 TDs, 6 catches for 63 yards vs. Panthers

Hillis crushed it in the first half of this one, and he didn’t have to do much the rest of the game to keep his fantasy owners happy. If you have Hillis, rejoice. If you don’t, well, at least you’re not Josh McDaniels. Not even a fantasy novice would trade Hillis for Brady Quinn. Complete fail there, Joshy Boy.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: 13 catches for 170 yards and 3 TDs vs. Seahawks

Bowe does. That’s the only thing I can say at this point. Just like those DROID commercials, Bowe DOES. He’s getting open against even stingy opponents (this one, for the record, not so stingy) thanks to the powerful run game that the Chiefs have put together. There’s no reason not to start him the rest of the way. I’m just as shocked as you are. I honestly didn’t think he, or Cassel, had it in him.

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: 341 passing yards, 4 TDs, 1 rushing yard vs. Lions

Brady put together one of those classic Brady games against the Lions on Thanksgiving. He made all the throws and had a fire raging inside of him both on and off the field. The offense is certainly clicking, but remember: this was the Lions. I don’t know if Brady will be able to produce these stats against the Jets, Bears, and Packers in the next three weeks. But if he gets you to the championship, he faces the Bills.

Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs: 233 passing yards, 4 TDs, 28 rushing yards vs. Seahawks

Cassel lucked out when Bowe broke out this season. He should have continued to look overpaid and overstarted, but instead, he’s putting up multiple touchdown games like he’s the less mobile Michael Vick. Will you ride him into the playoffs? Other than the Chargers in Week 14…it seems reasonable to expect you can.

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: 247 passing yards, 4 TDs, 17 rushing yards vs. Eagles

Now THIS Is the Cutler I drafted, ladies and gentlemen. This week he gets the Lions, and I expect this streak to continue. If he could just start blowing people away like I thought he would all season, that’d be great, especially since I just lost Frank Gore.

Sam Bradford, QB, Rams: 308 passing yards, 3 TDs vs. Broncos

The rookie finally reached great heights, 300+ passing yards, even though it was just barely 300 passing yards. And there should really be a deduction when all the scores go to tight ends. Do you know what a wide receiver is Sam Bradford? Those things that can’t stay healthy for you. Well, there ARE still more on your team.

The rookie’s got a pretty nice schedule the rest of the way, if you’re daring enough to believe that this Week 12 performance was the start of his rise. I think this is a spike in his production, but it could carry over into Week 13 against the Cardinals.

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: 59 rushing yards, 5 catches for 104 yards and 1 TD

Matchup proof? Just maybe. He was phenomenal when he last held the starting gig down in Buffalo, and he made it work this week against the Steelers rough defense. He’ll be tested further against a rejuvenated Vikings’ defense, the Browns, and the Dolphins. But if he’s the guy you have to lean on, I think you can count on consistent, if not spectacular, production.

Maurice Morris, RB, Lions: 55 rushing yards and 2 TDs, 5 catches for 20 yards vs. Patriots

Best really is done for the season, and Morris showed us what a healthy back can do in this offense. He was delivered to the goal line twice by the Lions offense and took advantage with his two scores. But now he’s really done for the year. There’s nothing pretty about the rest of his schedule.

Mike Goodson, RB, 55 rushing yards and 1 TD, 8 catches for 81 yards vs. Browns

The lone bright spot in this offense in recent weeks, Goodson looks like a future star. He shared time with The Daily Show John Stewart this week, but he should not lose more carries than he has already to the fellow runner. Goodson’s earning his spot for 2011, when DeAngelo Williams will probably be out-of-town. He’s not a bad start against the Seahawks in Week 13.

Deion Branch, WR, Patriots: 3 catches for 113 yards and 2 TDs vs. Lions

Branch’s precise routes and nose for the end zone made the Lions secondary, and especially Alphonso Smith, just look baaaad. Too bad you’ll never know which Patriots wide receiver not named Wes Welker is going to show up in the stats column in any given week.

Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders: 13 rushing yards, 4 catches for 108 yards and 1 TD, 1 return TD vs. Dolphins

Ford looks like the only wide receiver worth trusting in Oakland. He had these numbers with Gradkowski at quarterback, but he have Campbell for the rest of the season. That’s still good news since Campbell was the one who “found” him a few weeks ago, but the Raiders would prefer to keep the ball on the ground if McFadden gets back to action. He still might because the Oakland schedule is pretty nice in Weeks 14-16.

Ben Obomanu, WR, Seahawks: 5 catches for 159 yards and 1 TD vs. Chiefs

The Chiefs were missing their best corner and let Obo break loose for a long score late in this one. Otherwise, his fantasy points wouldn’t have been nearly as generous. Still, he’s got significant value as long as Big Mike Williams is sidelined and retains some value even after he returns. It looks like Williams will be back for Week 13.

Earl Bennett, WR, Bears: 4 catches for 56 yards and 2 TDs vs. Eagles

Is this chemistry between the two former Vandy stars? Cutler sought out Bennett twice by the goal line, and while we can’t say it’s going to continue, Bennett isn’t a bad grab as the second wide receiver in this offense that finally seems to be clicking.

Billy Bajema, TE, Rams: 3 catches for 32 yards and 2 TDs vs. Broncos

Bradford loved his tight ends on Sunday, but Bajema is no great talent. He’s the only tight end in St. Louis with Hoomanawanui sidelined, but I still wouldn’t trust him in the fantasy playoffs.

Nate Kaeding, K, Chargers: 5/5 on field goals and 3 XPs vs. Colts

Not a bad game back for the recovering kicker. If your team is getting held back by a sub-par kicker, go snag Kaeding now that he’s back in action.

On defenses: The Chargers D/ST feasted on Peyton Manning’s interceptions in this one as he uncharacteristically turned the ball over a whopping four times. Don’t expect it to be so easy the rest of the season, but the Chargers D/ST has certainly come on at the right time for fantasy owners.

On productive Bills wideouts: Steve Johnson was not a winner on this list in Week 12, but I expect him to bounce back. As long as God doesn’t smite him for calling him out on Twitter, that is.

A Fool and His Money in Week 1

Now that we have the explanation out of the way, let’s talk Week 1 picks.

Jacob’s Ed. Note: Note that due to some compulsive gambling this weekend, we didn’t get the Week 1 picks up before the games. If you didn’t notice, congratulations — you rock. Starting Week 2, picks should be up prior to the weekend’s festivities. Now, on with the show…

Enter the Chadam

Hi. My name is Chadam, and I’ll be half of the two-headed team that will be leading you through the crazy world of picking NFL spreads.

Make no mistake; I am hardly what you would call an “expert.” My resume consists of a gambling addiction formed in my high school years, the borderline drinking problem that graces plagues most males in their twenties and the unlawful possession of irrational reasons for loving or hating certain teams and players.

In other words, I’m might be just like you and a large majority of the fantasy football community.

I’m a diehard Texans fan and will never bet against them under any circumstances, so take my analysis of their games with a grain of salt.

Elisha Manning is my sworn enemy and his older brother is a close second, which won’t affect my picks but will almost certainly rear its head in my commentary.

Finally, I’ll be bringing a few stats to the table. I won’t bore you with numbers, but merely alert you to some statistical trends that everybody can utilize, whether you’re in a friendly office pick ‘em pool or a regular weekend gambler.

My goals this year are to correctly pick 54 percent of the spreads, which is my rough estimate of the percentage that will guarantee you a profit against Vegas after taking into account the vigorish on bets, and to finish with a better record than Nick, the other guy.

It’s more than likely that my record will hover around .400, which allows you to insure a profit by choosing the opposite of whatever I do.

Enjoy our lighthearted analysis on the spreads, may your fantasy teams stay healthy this year and all of your sleepers pan out.

Pick Nick (Ed. Note: Get it?)

My name is Nick, and I’m the other guy making picks along with Chadam.

Chadam claims we are not experts, but I disagree. Do we not place our own hard-earned money on the line every week making bets? Did we not go to Vegas last year for the NFL Wild Card playoffs and steal some loot back from Caesar’s Palace?

We put our own money on the line, so I think that makes us experts. That being said, we aren’t experts that you should trust blindly, but we’ll do our best to point out what we think are the best bets each weekend and, hopefully, drop a little gambling knowledge on a few of you sports book virgins.

Consider this week’s picks my first step towards dominating Chadam this year. Enjoy!

A Fool and His Money…

Today, we’ll start with our predictions on the NFL opener Thursday between the Redskins and Giants and the rest of opening weekend.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants

Chadam Takes: GIANTS (-4) over Redskins

Talk about a lack of respect for the defending champs. I am in the camp that believes in the year-after curse for Super Bowl champs (The Steelers in 2006 are a good example) unless they prove otherwise.

That defense is a shadow of last year’s squad, and I can see Plax not trying as hard to stay on the field for all 16 games this year. That being said, Jason Campbell looked awful this preseason, and I think he’s another year from breaking out.

The Giants’ offensive cogs haven’t played enough games yet to be injured (I’m looking at you, Brandon Jacobs), so I think they’ll put enough points on the board to stay comfortably ahead the entire game.

Nick Takes: Redskins (+4) over GIANTS

I like the Redskins with points in the game tonight. I’ve been pretty high on Jason Campbell lately and expect him to have a breakout year despite his shoddy preseason performance. The Giants won’t have anything close to the pass rush they had last year, and I think that’s just what the doctor ordered for Campbell.

He does have one of my many personal sworn enemies on his team, Keenan McCardell, but hopefully, nobody will be counting on anything from him for the rest of his life. That guy cost me a playoff spot in one of my fantasy leagues a few years ago, and I will never forgive him for it. Ever.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Chadam Takes: Bengals (-1.5) over RAVENS

I think the record of rookie QBs in their first game has to be like 0-23968, right? With McGahee questionable, I don’t see where the Ravens’ offensive assault is going to come from in this one — unless, of course, Ray Lewis stabs somebody again.

Nick Takes: Bengals (-1.5) over RAVENS

I don’t like trusting the Bengals defense, but they are going up against an injured running back and a Division II QB who has never played a game in the NFL.

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons

Chadam Takes: Lions (-3) over FALCONS

Did I mention that I hate rookie QBs? You know the Lions are putting up at least 24 points. Do you really believe the Falcons will score 20?

Turner could run for 230 yards in this one though.

Nick Takes: Lions (-3) over FALCONS

I think both teams will do better than they did last year, but the Falcons have too many new faces to mesh together right away.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Chadam Takes: Jets (-3) over DOLPHINS

Poor Pennington. Everywhere he goes people seem to knock him for his girlish arm strength. What a crappy stigma to have.

Can anyone think of a worse fault to have (that’s NFL scouting report related)? Help me out in the comments if you have any ideas.

Nick Takes: DOLPHINS (+3) over Jets

Chad Pennington is going to be mad. The Big Tuna is always mad. Dolphins’ head coach Tony Sparano always looks mad, and Ricky…well, he’s at peace with himself and everybody around him.

I think the Jets need a little more time before Favre is comfortable, and I’m guessing Bill Parcells has no moral problem with asking Pennington about the Jets’ offense. I pick Miami in an upset.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Chadam Takes: Texans (+6.5) over STEELERS

This pick is more of a homer pick. I think the Steelers have a legit chance of blowing this game wide open. Sadly, since Houston is such a popular sleeper this year, they’re being overhyped in the spreads. Nick might be benefiting this year from my automatic Texans picks.

Nick Takes: STEELERS (-6.5) over Texans

I feel like I know what I’m going to get from the Steelers. I like that.

I don’t feel like I know what I’m going to get from the Texans. I’m going to predict they put just enough points on the board in garbage time to make me nervous but still lose by seven.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Chadam Takes: Jaguars (-3) over TITANS

The most ridiculous line of the day. I love the Jags this year, and hopefully, after creating their fifth turnover of the day, people might respect their defense a little more. Besides, you know the whole team will be JACKED UP to play if Matt Jones is back in the locker room.

Nick Takes: Jaguars (-3) over TITANS

Vince Young is my hero, especially after I saw him down on Sixth Street (in Austin) the other night and because of that whole National Championship thing, too, but I do learn from my mistakes. I’m not betting again on a QB who had a horrible preseason with a new offensive coordinator.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Chadam Takes: SAINTS (-3.5) over Buccaneers

I almost chose the Bucs in this one, but I love the Saints’ offense this year. So does Nick apparently — he drafted four Saints in the fantasy football league Jacob and I share with him.

It’s a win-win. I either get a correct pick, or I watch Nick’s fantasy team suck it up and start 0-1.

Nick Takes: Buccaneers (+3.5) over SAINTS

I like the Saints this year, but they are going to be playing in a relatively empty stadium against a very underrated defense. I like the Bucs with the points in this one.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Chadam Takes: Cardinals (-2.5) over 49ERS (NINERS)

Every year, the Cardinals are a sleeper, and this year is no exception. I don’t think they’ll come close to the playoffs, but for this game, I’m being suckered in by the Cardinals.

Arizona’s passing game is going to make Martz wonder why he picked such a terrible team for his system (No QB, WRs or offensive line).

Nick Takes: Cardinals (-2.5) over 49ERS (NINERS)

I like this bet a lot. I’m not convinced Mike Martz can fix the 49ers’ sorry offense, and even if he could, it still couldn’t compete with the weapons they are packing in Arizona.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Chadam Takes: NO ONE

Jacob Ed. Note: Chadam, being the smart guy that he is, failed to turn in a pick in this contest. Apparently, he figured it was such a lock for the Patriots that he blocked it out of his mind when he turned in picks this week. Clever, but for the sanctity of his pick record, mark this one up as a miss for Chadam.

Nick Takes: PATRIOTS (-15.5) over Kansas City

I absolutely hate giving anybody 15.5 points, but it’s tough not to like the Patriots in a slaughter over the Chiefs.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills

Chadam Takes: BILLS (-1) over Seahawks

I kinda feel bad for Holmgren; his offense will be Bears-esque this year.

Let’s see. He’s lost four of his top-five WRs from last year (Deion Branch, D.J. Hackett, Bobby Engram and Ben Obomanu), replaced the inept Shaun Alexander with the equally-inept Julius Jones, lost two offensive lineman in camp and now Matt Hasselbeck has back problems?

Holmgren’s probably counting down the days until retirement.

Nick Takes: Seahawks (+1) over BILLS

I would have expected to see Seattle favored in this game. Normally, that would make me excited, but for some reason, I’m nervous.

Oh well, you gotta have nerves to be a gambler.

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Chadam Takes: Rams (+7.5) over EAGLES

Which QB will be injured first? I actually think the Eagles will be great this year, but a healthy Rams team is no pushover either. I say Philly wins by three.

Nick Takes: EAGLES (-7.5) over Rams

I like the Eagles this year and think they could do some damage in the NFC. The Rams are going to have to prove to me that they are capable of staying close with opponents before I even think about betting on them.

Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers

Chadam Takes: Panthers (+9) over CHARGERS

How many passing attempts will there be in this game from both teams combined? 20? 25?

With Smith out and Gates not likely to make a significant impact, I’ll go with the underdog and hope I’m right.

Nick Takes: Panthers (+9) over CHARGERS

Not too much to say here. I like San Diego to win, but I don’t feel comfortable giving up nine points.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-5.5) over BROWNS

What a bad matchup for the Browns. Anderson, Edwards and Lewis are all banged up while Dallas is completely healthy with a motivated Pacman (Ed. Note: Now, Chadam, he goes by Adam) Jones?

Money in the bank. God, I hope Nick chose the Browns.

Nick Takes: Cowboys (-5.5) over BROWNS

I hate any team that has anything to do with the flamer that is Brady Quinn, but I don’t need to make this bet out of spite.

Cleveland finished horribly last year, and all their studs are coming of injuries. I’m laying down quite a few bucks on this game and in anticipation of a blowout.

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

Chadam Takes: COLTS (-9.5) over Bears

I hate to say it, but I think Manning’s knee problems are overblown. Harrison’s problems, however, are not, and my constant drafting of Anthony Gonzalez backs up my assertion. I think this will be a really low-scoring game — like 17-7. And yes, the only points for Chicago come from a Devin Hester punt return.

Nick Takes: Bears (+9.5) over COLTS

To be honest, I don’t like this bet at all. I’m not really sure what to expect in this game.

The Colts will be pumped up in the new stadium but will be missing Jeff Saturday. The Bears have a good defense, special teams and running game, but they have no passing game whatsoever.

When in doubt, I like to take the points.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Chadam Takes: PACKERS (-2.5) over Vikings

My dark horse NFC champion against the terribly overhyped Vikings? Only three points?

I’m betting my rent money on this one.

Nick Takes: PACKERS (-2.5) over Vikings

Good luck, Aaron Rodgers. You’re going to need it. The Vikings are going to be coming after you hard, but I predict Rodgers will calm down after a miserable first half and bring the Packers back to win it by a field goal.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Chadam Takes: RAIDERS (+3) over Broncos

Nnamdi Asomugha, cornerback (CB) for the Raiders (Ed. Note: FYI, Chadam didn’t sneeze), should be a household name. He is so filthy-good I think he was created in a lab with DNA from Champ Bailey.

Anyways, Brandon Marshall should be glad Asomugha is not schooling him Monday night…and Shanahan will torture my soul by starting Selvin Young but letting Andre Hall get 30 carries.

Nick Takes: Broncos (-3) over RAIDERS

I like Oakland’s young nucleus and head coach, but I still think it will take them awhile to learn how to win games. Look for Selvin Young to save the day in this one.

UPDATE: Friday Morning Trash Talkin’

Chadam: This Season: 1-0-0. Games Ahead of Nick: 1.

Nick: So I started off on the wrong foot by picking the Redskins on Thursday night’s opening game. No problem.

I’ll let Chadam brag because it will be the only time this whole season that he will be ahead in the picks.

So congratulations, Chadam. Maybe you and your mom, who you still live with, can go out and celebrate. I’m just going to concentrate on making more money this weekend.

The Third-Year Breakout Wide Receiver Theory and Why It’s Coincidence

I don’t put much faith in the third-year breakout theory for wide receivers. It’s no perfect science but merely a common coincidence.

A wide receiver’s breakout year has more to do with when the receiver becomes comfortable in the offense than when they hit year 3 of their career.

Receivers–unless they fall into a good situation–usually don’t start their first year in the league. Some like Steve Smith (New York Giants) and Craig Davis (San Diego Chargers) may earn a role as a third receiver off and on throughout their rookie season, but overlooking exceptions like Marques Colston and Ted Ginn Jr. who start right away out of talent or necessity, a receiver’s second year is the first time most of them are hitting the field game after game.

By the third year, receivers actually feel comfortable in the NFL and should start to show their true talent. They get more playing time and, with fresh legs and some kind of NFL-worthy moves, they can shake cornerbacks better than the weak receiver or aging veteran they are replacing.

So there’s the average path of your third year “breakout.” The third year is simply when they see the field the most, know the plays and get a relationship with the quarterback.

If you look at a receiver that starts right away–Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe or Marques Colston–they might see their breakout year in the first or second year of their career.

Marques Colston had a huge rookie campaign and came up big again this year even with the Saint’s slow start. He can hardly be considered a breakout following traditional third-year rules. Greg Jennings, in just his second year, posted numbers any fantasy team manager would like. Calvin Johnson performed early on but didn’t finish well, but he might still be on target for a nice 2008 though with a new offensive coordinator.

You just can’t say that the third year for these already starting receivers will be any different or more “breakout” than this season.

While you should watch which young receivers are becoming comfortable in the offense they are running, I would never take a chance on someone expecting the third year to be a breakout season. At the same time, I would never overlook a younger second-year receiver because they haven’t reached that coveted third year mark.

That’s my take. Watch their comfort level and relationship with the quarterback.

Smitty at Fantasy Football Xtreme put together an analysis of the third-year receivers from 2007 and list of breakouts for 2008. As the stats show, only 2 out of 9 receivers in their third year really showed breakout stats this year–Braylon Edwards and Roddy White. D.J. Hackett probably would have been up there if he hadn’t been plagued by injury, but for the most part, the third year receivers of 2007 were only worthy of subbing when they had great match ups.

The top 5 breakouts for 2008 look very solid. I wouldn’t even call them breakouts for 2008 since they already showed both talent and stats in 2007–and for some, 2006.

Smitty’s 2008 Third-Year Breakout WRs

  1. Marques Colston (NO)
  2. Santonio Holmes (PIT)
  3. Greg Jennings (GB)
  4. Brandon Marshall (DEN)
  5. Lance Moore (NO)
  6. Ben Obomanu (SEA)
  7. Jeff Webb (KC)
  8. Sinorice Moss (NYG)
  9. Jason Avant (PHI)
  10. Demetrius Williams (BAL)
  11. Derek Hagan (MIA)
  12. Maurice Stovall (TB)
  13. Brad Smith (NYJ)
  14. Chad Jackson (NE)
  15. Travis Wilson (CLE)
  16. Bennie Brazell (CIN)

The rest of the list is a bit sketchy. If you put a lot of stock in the third-year theory then you might consider going after them late in the draft or putting them on your watch list for 2008 for a snag on the waiver wire.