Week 11 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

I didn’t rush to publish the starts and sits before Thursday Night Football because I wasn’t planning on mentioning any of Jets or Patriots this week. It’s times like these that you should follow me on twitter for any news updates or sit/start recommendations you might need.

Last night, I expected a defensive slugfest with a lot of Thomas Jones, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and some short passes to Wes Welker. Nothing to write home about, so nothing worth covering in Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders.

I pegged Brett Favre and Matt Cassel as bubble starts, but they’ve been matchup plays for several weeks now. I wrote off Randy Moss as a lost cause, even though you have to start a stud like him every week. While BenJarvus Green-Ellis wouldn’t do much, he’d get his carries and maybe a touchdown when they got in close.

Thomas Jones would continue to ride his hot streak behind such a solid offensive line. Wes Welker would be a solid play to collect yardage in this one, and if you wanted to take a chance on Jerricho Cotchery or Laveranues Coles, more power to you.

The fact that the weather might take a turn for the worst sold me on those predictions. Despite Brett Favre’s ability to succeed in harsh weather, it was going to be a running game. It would come down to who had time of possession, but it wouldn’t be close — Jets win.

Call it the Brett Favre factor, but sometimes Favre’s teams (and his opponents) can do a lot with just a little.

Your leading passer from Thursday night, Matt Cassel. With 400 yards passing and three touchdowns, Cassel might have just won a lot of battles for owners this weekend, but I’d really like to hear from anyone who started him (or even anyone in a league where someone started him).

In three out of my five redraft leagues, he’s a free agent on the waiver wire, and he only went off like that because I just dropped him this morning. Dick.

Do it again, and I owe you a coke, Cassel. (And not the kind you’re thinking, Matt Jones, so quit calling me.)

Hot Hands

Aaron Rodgers, QB Packers vs. Bears — I’m not afraid of the Bears passing defense, so they can feel free to stack the line for Ryan Grant like they did against the Titans. I’d still start Rodgers in what could be a lucrative return to his early-in-the-season success.

Matt Ryan, QB Falcons vs. Broncos — Against a potent passing offense, the Falcons are going to need big plays, and without Champ Bailey, the Broncos are very QB-friendly. As long as Michael Turner doesn’t explode in some kind of white-hot fantasy flame and rack up the touchdowns — it’s possible — Ryan is set for a good day.

Michael Turner, RB Falcons vs. Broncos — Turner has a delicious matchup against the weak Broncos run defense. And yes, I’m hedging my bets a little bit by recommending both the passing game and running game of the Falcons. Just like the Saints matchup last week, the Falcons could be primed to put up numbers in this one as well.

Joseph Addai, RB Colts vs. Texans — Assuming any rumor of his injury flaring up again are false, Addai is actually starting the chewy, cream-filling goodness of his schedule here at the end of the season. The Texans run defense has a bad habit of looking like Swiss cheese, and with the Colts offense hitting stride, I foresee a high ceiling for Addai this week.

Greg Jennings, WR Packers vs. Bears — You have to start Jennings even though he’s been through a rough stretch. Fortunately, he should break out of the hard times against a weak Bears defense. Surely, the Bears won’t stack up against the run and make Rodgers beat them through the air like they did against the Titans, but will they? Please?

Hines Ward, WR Steelers vs. Chargers – Even if I have my doubts about who is throwing the ball, I gotta have faith in Ward. He came up with over 100 yards last week while Ben was hurting, and he should be able to do that and more this week against the Chargers terrible pass defense, even if it’s Byron Leftwich under center.

Tony Scheffler, TE Broncos vs. Falcons — Welcome back, Scheff. If he is finally off the sideline bike this week and back to 100 percent, watch out for a big day. Cutler still really likes to get him the ball.

Jason Elam, K Falcons vs. Broncos — This one has revenge game written all over it, and the Broncos are best friends with any kicker they face. Elam will be wanting on the field as much as possible. What if this one comes down to a long kick for the win? Epic.

Bubble Boys

Ben Roethlisberger, QB Steelers vs. Chargers — Any QB is a good start against the Chargers, but Big Ben is banged up and out of it. I would hold off on starting him if you have acquired a decent backup. While he is likely to have a better game than his Week 10 performance, it’s unlikely that he’ll notch as many fantasy points as other QBs have against the Chargers.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB Seahawks vs. Cardinals — If he starts, he upgrades the entire Seahawks passing game and saves them from the Seneca Wallace experience, but how much rust is on that arm? And how healthy is his back? Several questions around “the Hassel” make him a risky play this week, even against a questionable pass defense like the Cardinals. Beating the Seahawks with Hasselbeck under center would be another statement game for the Cardinals to show their legit in the NFC West this year.

Larry Johnson, RB Chiefs vs. Saints — He returns, but how much of this offense is now in the hands of Tyler Thigpen? I am not sure how much we’ll see of Johnson, and I’m also have my doubts that we do see would be worth starting.

Willie Parker, RB Steelers vs. Chargers — Shoulder injury? What shoulder injury? Willie Parker don’t know ’bout no shoulder injury! Parker’s probably playing this week, but this start could definitely become a McGahee-esque phantom start in a hurry. Parker in a shoulder brace just doesn’t sound great to me, so even with this soft matchup, I like Mewelde Moore better for the Steelers run game this week.

Plaxico Burress, WR Giants vs. Ravens — I am not Plax fan. I’ll admit it. I’ve never liked him since I started playing fantasy football. Maybe it’s all these character problems we hear about, or maybe I just like Domenik Hixon better. Regardless, Plax is not putting up big numbers lately, so even when it looks like a great matchup for him, I question whether he’ll get the touchdown needed to push his fantasy score over the edge.

Bernard Berrian, WR Vikings vs. Buccaneers – And just like that, poof, the hot streak dies with a zero. I question whether he can do much better against a Bucs defense that shuts down more reliable receivers everyday.

Kellen Winslow, TE Browns vs. Bills — Not that you would sit him, but Winslow might see more coverage coming his way now that the Brady Quinn game plan has been exposed. He’ll produce adequate fantasy numbers for a tight end, but I’m not sure that he’ll produce elite numbers against a very aware Bills defense.

Cold Shoulders

Brady Quinn, QB Browns vs. Bills — He surprised me with his big day early in the Thursday nighter against the Broncos, but Quinn is still a young quarterback. Against a Bills defense with their playoff hopes on the line, he’ll probably regress a bit. You weren’t starting Quinn until a week ago, so it’s probably pretty likely that the other guy on your roster is looking better this week. If Quinn blows up in this game, I’ll give him credit for being more than I thought he was.

David Garrard, QB Jaguars vs. Titans — While he’s been putting it all out there, Garrard hasn’t gotten much help from his teammates. It’s hard to see them being much use in this one against the stingy Titans defense. Any big plays are likely to be countered by picks and other mistakes.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB Chargers vs. Steelers — L.T. hasn’t had his best weeks lately, and I don’t expect him to make a push for a top-five spot against the Steelers this week. Unless Big Ben’s arm, shoulder, and achy gallbladder go bionic in the next two days, they’ll need to slow a powerful Chargers offense and keep this game close. I think L.T. will have another disappointing week, so if you have another guy that you started while he was questionable/out, how about giving him a shot? Just think about it…

Willis McGahee, RB Ravens vs. Giants — I’m so angry that I drafted McGahee as a top RB in one of my leagues this year — my first and most likely last autodraft. His big game last week may have you thinking he could do some more good for you in this matchup. While the Ravens do run a lot, the Giants smash faces a lot. I don’t like it one bit, and considering how often the revolving door at RB swings in Baltimore, I don’t think McGahee warrants a start this week. He’s a flex option at best.

Vincent Jackson, WR Chargers vs. Steelers — He’ll ride that hot streak right into a poor day against the Steelers pass defense. Knock your expectations down a couple of notches if you are forced to start him.

Kevin Walter, WR Texans vs. Colts — Sage is under center against a strong pass defense. The Colts won’t let this one get away from them, so despite Sage’s great desire for revenge and redemption, I don’t think Walter will get a touchdown in this one. The Texans are better off looking to Steve Slaton.

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE Vikings vs. Buccaneers — The Bucs are going to take away big yardage plays here, and unless he scores a touchdown, Shiancoe will have another slow day. The run game should be the Vikings’ emphasis on offense in this one.

A Fool and His Money in Week 11

It’s go time. Once again, a ‘$’ marks all of Nick’s locks of the week while a ‘#’ marks all of Chadam’s locks.

Thursday Night Football: New York Jets at New England Patriots

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Jets (+3) over PATRIOTS
Nick Takes: PATRIOTS (-3) over Jets

In taking the Jets, Chadam says: I’ll admit, I’m sucked in to this Mangini-Belichick rivalry — if only Tom Brady were here to help run up the score. I like how the Jets sign Ty Law, who’s probably old enough to have a son that’s playing in the NFL, just to gain some knowledge of New England game plans. At least, they aren’t REALLY planning on starting Ty Law, right?

In taking the Patriots, Nick says: Brett Favre has not improved within the Jets system this year. Matt Cassel has improved within the Patriots system this year. I think this game will come down to Favre having to make some plays, and the Patriots defense will step up to stop him.

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Lions (+14.5) over PANTHERS
Nick Takes: PANTHERS (-14.5) over Lions

In taking the Lions, Chadam says: I really like the Panthers, but that is one helluva spread. There’s no way the Lions win a game on the road, but it had better be a damn good team for me to lay more than two touchdowns. Carolina isn’t there for me… yet.

In taking the Panthers, Nick says: I hate giving up 14.5 points to anyone. I hate it. But there is no way I could possibly pick the Lions, who are playing Daunte Culpepper and Drew Stanton at QB. What am I supposed to do? Talk myself into them? I’ll go with this: Jake Delhomme and the Panthers played horribly last week, so we can expect a bounce back game in which they put up a ton of points. That is how I justify giving up 14.5 points.

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: FALCONS (-5.5) over Broncos
Nick Takes: Broncos (+5.5) over FALCONS

In taking the Falcons, Chadam says: I miss the good old days when people thought the Falcons sucked. They would’ve been seven-point underdogs. This pick is a lot harder now. I’m betting the Falcons will get a few more stops than Denver does. We’ll see how that plays out.

In taking the Broncos, Nick says: I know the Falcons are undefeated at home and playing well, but something in my gut is telling me to take the Broncos in this one. I want to pick against the Broncos for what they did to me earlier this season, but at least they spoiled Miss Quinn’s debut last week.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Texans (+8.5) over COLTS
Nick Takes: COLTS (-8.5) over Texans

In taking the Texans, Chadam says: At least with Sage behind center, we might suck hard enough to get a good draft pick. Sigh.

In taking the Colts, Nick says: This is an intriguing matchup. The Texans should have won earlier this year against the Colts, but Sage Rosenfels unraveled to give the game away. Sage is back to being a starter, but after last week’s performance, I doubt he has recovered from what happened in the last Colts game. Indy has been winning ugly the past few weeks, but I think this will be a breakout game for them.

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Raiders (+10.5) over DOLPHINS
Nick Takes: DOLPHINS (-10.5) over Raiders

In taking the Raiders, Chadam says: I don’t really trust the Dolphin’s ability to cover big spreads. Besides, this feels like a week in which the Raiders will bust out their awesome defense and turn this game into a 10-7 contest that’s useless for fantasy purposes.

In taking the Dolphins, Nick says: What a dysfunctional organization. I’ll just stick with the usual: the Raiders suck, their owner sucks, their coach sucks, their top draft picks suck, and, last but not least, their fans suck. Go Ricky Williams and the Dolphins!

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: BUCS (-4) over Vikings
Nick Takes: Vikings (+4) over BUCS

In taking the Bucs, Chadam says: This is a coin-flip game, so I’ll go with the better defense.

In taking the Vikings, Nick says: I think the Vikings might have found something within themselves in the comeback win against the Packers last week. Let’s see if it carries over. It’s tough to pick against Purple Jesus.

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: CHIEFS (+5) over Saints
Nick Takes: Saints (-5) over CHIEFS

In taking the Chiefs, Chadam says: To think, one month ago, this would’ve been a no-brainer. While I think the Chiefs will play well at home, the Saints will roll if Reggie Bush plays.

In taking the Saints, Nick says: The Chiefs have remained surprisingly competitive the past few weeks and covered the spread the past three. With that said, I’m still taking the Saints. I told you to expect big games from Marques Colston because I traded him in fantasy football, and look what happened.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals

Fools Take: Eagles (-9.5) over BENGALS $

In taking the Eagles, Nick says: Did anyone else hear Ocho Cinco say he thinks the Bengals can finish 8-8? If he had a reality show I would watch it just to see if we are living on the same planet. Ryan Fitzpatrick may be from Harvard, but he is going to have a lot of trouble dealing with Jim Johnson and all his crazy blitzes. The Eagles need this one to stay in the playoff hunt.

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: GIANTS (-6.5) over Ravens
Nick Takes: Ravens (+6.5) over GIANTS

In taking the Giants, Chadam says: This matchup will be the first game where I’m not sure the Giants are heavily favored. Now that the creampuff section of their schedule is over, I’m interested to see how they hold up against another great defense.

In taking the Ravens, Nick says: Both these teams are looking really good right now, but the Ravens have been destroying teams as of late. Both teams have solid defenses, potent running games and fearless quarterbacks, albeit one is fearless because he is a rookie and doesn’t know any better. This matchup is the type of game the Baltimore defense loves. I’m taking the points in this one.

San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Fools Take: STEELERS (-4.5) over Chargers #

In taking the Steelers, Nick says: I don’t like either team in this game. The Steelers have lost two of their last three, and the Chargers are hanging on by the skin on their teeth. Normally, I would take the points in a game like this one, but I think the Steelers have the better defense and at least the ability to turn this game into a blow out.

In choosing the Steelers as a lock, Chadam says: If this was 2006, I might be more worried, but 2008’s Tomlinson and Co. does not scare me one bit.

Tennessee Titans over Jacksonville Jaguars

Fools Take: Titans (-3) over JAGS $ #

In taking the Titans, Nick says: The Titans are getting no respect from the odds makers. I know the Jags looked “good” last week against a Daunte Culpepper led Lions team, but come on. This is the same team that got beat by the Bengals two weeks ago. I haven’t forgotten that.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Fools Take: Cardinals (-2.5) over SEAHAWKS #

In taking the Cardinals, Nick says: Will Hasselbeck make all the Seahawks’ problems disappear? I don’t think so. Kurt Warner, on the other hand, has made everyone forget that Matt Leinart is waiting in the wings. Warner is a passing machine in the Cardinals’ offense and will continue to be even more of a threat with Hightower catching out of the backfield.

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Fools Take: 49ERS (-6) over Rams

In taking the 49ers, Nick says: The 49ers didn’t win last week, but they showed some fight. That’s good enough for me to take them over the Rams. Do you remember a few weeks ago when everybody was claiming Jim Haslett saved their season? They were wrong.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: PACKERS (-4) over Bears
Nick Takes: Bears (+4) over PACKERS

In taking the Packers, Chadam says: I still think that the Pack will win this division. Their defense is getting a little healthier — well, at least their secondary. Besides, betting on Rex Grossman is bad for your health. [Note from Jacob: Kyle Orton is currently listed as probable for this game.]

In taking the Bears, Nick says: It would be nice to know Orton’s status for this game. I’m going to assume he is playing. The Packers have struggled lately and the Bears have lost a few close games. I’m taking the points in what I expect to be a close, division rivalry game.

Sunday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-2) over REDSKINS
Nick Takes: REDSKINS (+2) over Cowboys

In taking the Cowboys, Chadam says: My fantasy hopes rest on Tony Romo, so I might as well double down, right?

In taking the Redskins, Nick says: I don’t care if Romo is back or not. The Redskins have already beaten them at Dallas, and I’m taking the Redskins with points in a no-brainer. Not quite a lock, but without a doubt, you have to take the Redskins at home with points.

Monday Night Football: Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Browns (+4.5) over BILLS
Nick Takes: BILLS (-4.5) over Browns

In taking the Browns, Chadam says: I’m torn between betting against Coach Romeo and betting against crappy Trent Edwards. Let’s take the points and see where that gets us.

In taking the Bills, Nick says: The Bills are unraveling like I said they would a few weeks ago, but the Browns… “I cannot play with them; I cannot win with them, cannot coach with them, can’t do it.” I hate Brady Quinn, and I hate Braylon Edwards after wasting my first round pick on him in fantasy football. Screw you, Cleveland.

Nick’s Lock ($): Eagles (-9.5) over BENGALS, Titans (-3) over JAGS

Chadam’s Locks (#): STEELERS (-4.5) over Chargers, Titans (-3) over JAGS, Cardinals (-2.5) over SEAHAWKS

Last Week:

Nick: 10-3

Current Standings after Week 10:

Nick: 76-62-2
Nick’s Locks: 2-1

On the Wire: Week 11 Pickups and Waiver Wire Veterans from Week 10

By now, your season may be over, but there’s no reason to start cutting players like the Raiders unless they are still underperforming. Now is the time to grab up all those players the teams that beat up on you want to cripple them for their playoff run! That’s right. Bitterness breeds competition.

Of course, if you are in a keeper or dynasty league, you should be a little more responsible, but for the re-drafters out there, let the bitter waves of hate flow.

Here’s a few guys that might help you in the playoffs or help you assist you in hoarding talent from your worthy adversaries.

Worth Claiming

Tyler Thigpen, QB Kansas City Chiefs — Of all the backup quarterbacks starting this season, Thiggy might be the best of the bunch. He’s worth mentioning again. He has six touchdowns and 710 yards in his last three starts, and the Chiefs are running a large majority of plays from the shotgun. Is this still a running team?

Brady Quinn, QB Cleveland Browns — I’ve also mentioned Quinn previously, but if you passed on him in his first start, he proved himself with two touchdowns and no turnovers in his first start last Thursday. I don’t think he’ll win games for you down the stretch with a touch Week 13-15 schedule, but his efficient passing should beef up Kellen Winslow’s stats and keep him in the middle of the road as a fantasy quarterback.

Shaun Hill, QB San Francisco 49ers — To prevent you from having to go back to last week’s “On the Wire,” we’ll just complete the trifecta of quarterback options after Week 10. Hill had two touchdowns, a pair of interceptions, a fumble and 217 passing yards in this debut, but his turnovers were not as bad as they seem. His two interceptions came when the Arizona defense intensified in fourth quarter at home, and the fumble was caused by a bad snap that was knocked loose by a bumbling guard behind the line. His ability to avoid sacks and make plays will keep him fantasy-worthy in the upcoming games in which the 49ers will have to pass to stay competitive.

Ladell Betts, Shaun Alexander and Rock Cartwright, RB Washington Redskins — Don’t hate me now if you didn’t trade away Portis when I suggested he was an injury risk. It sounds like Clinton Portis has a painful MCL tear that is preventing him from even straightening his leg, so expect him to be limited or out against the Cowboys. Betts would be the favorite to fill in for Port, but he’s been banged up as well and might not be good enough to return despite what Jim Zorn is saying. If that were the case, Shaun Alexander and Rock Cartwright would probably share the carries. If you’re a Portis owner, I’d snag Betts just to be cautious moving forward.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB New England Patriots — “Law Firm” has overtaken the power back role in Sammy Morris’ absence with 100+ yards and a score in Week 10, and even with LaMont Jordan threatening to return, I see him having some flex value until Morris is ready to get back on the field. Add him if you need depth at running back, but you might not start him until fantasy playoffs (Jets, Dolphins, Steelers in next three weeks).

Justin Fargas and Michael Bush, RB Oakland Raiders — So Fargas is not completely dead, but the Raiders failing offense is going to limit his ceiling. He had 80+ yards in a garbage game against Carolina. Michael Bush has about the same value as the No. 2 back and getting about the same amount of yardage. Both of them make decent flex plays or low-end No. 2 options against weaker run defenses until Darren McFadden returns from injury.

Mark Bradley, WR Kansas City Chiefs — Riding the Thigpen train to success, we can safely say that Bradley is a legitimate No. 2 receiver beside Dwayne Bowe. He had nine catches for 81 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers this past week. He may be the third read behind Bowe and Tony Gonzalez, but he has a touchdown in each of his last three games, even if he did throw one of them. The schedule looking forward makes him very claim-worthy (Saints, Bills, Raiders, Broncos, Chargers, Dolphins).

Peyton Hillis and Tatum Bell, RB Denver Broncos — If you were, heaven forbid, starting a Denver running back, these two are the flavors of the week. Bell has just been signed but knows the system, and Hillis had 24 yards after Ryan Torain was injured Thursday night. No one knows how ol’ leather-faced Shanahan is going to handle this one, but I’d rather have Hillis than Bell at the moment because of his versatility.

Cadillac Williams, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — The Bucs are excited about Williams’ return, and they should be. Both Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn are still licking wounds. If you can afford the bench room to hold on to him for this week against the Vikings, Williams is worth claiming to see how he factors into the Bucs’ running game. Only a Week 14 Panthers matchup stands in the way of a return to fantasy relevance in the final games of this season. (Note for the fantasy n00bs: “Cadillac” is also known as Carnell Williams.)

Kevin Boss, TE New York Giants — A touchdown in each of his last three games is enough for me to be sold on the Shockey filler. Boss should have even had two touchdowns if he had caught the ball. Obviously, Manning is looking for him in the red zone, so you should, too.

Matt Spaeth, TE Pittsburgh Steelers — He’s merely a fill for an injured Heath Miller, but the Steelers haven’t been putting enough emphasis on utilizing the tight end position this season. This week gives him some added value as the Steelers face the tight-end-friendly Chargers, but I only endorse him as a one-week play or a sleeper grab.

Dustin Keller, TE New York Jets — Keller was hot to start the season and then fell off the map. If you held on to him, he finally had his biggest game of the season with six catches, 100+ yards and a score. We know how Brett Favre likes to use the tight ends, so a hot streak after this game wouldn’t surprise me.

Guys you probably should have already picked up:

Matt Ryan, QB Atlanta Falcons — He’s doing well in just his first year and has a great schedule for passing to end the season.

Kevin Smith, RB Detroit Lions — Despite Rudi Johnson’s brief interruption, Kevin Smith is still the back you want from Detroit, even if the schedule is garbage for rushing until the fantasy playoffs. He collected 96 yards and a score against the Jaguars.

Ricky Williams, RB Miami Dolphins — Williams was actually the better back with 100+ yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks, but most of his yardage came off one big play run out of the Wildcat formation with Ronnie Brown. He’ll continue to see his fair share of looks in the easy matchups to come.

Dominic Rhodes, RB Indianapolis Colts — It appears that the Colts will continue to give Rhodes carries even with Joseph Addai in the lineup. He’s got some depth and flex value with the easy running matchups left on the Colts schedule. If it’s true that Addai reaggravated his injury, Rhodes could be huge in the coming weeks.

Lance Moore, WR New Orleans Saints — The third-year receiver continues to catches even with the return of Marques Colston and had 76 yards and a score against Atlanta this past week.

Malcom Floyd, WR San Diego Chargers — The backup that won’t go away! Floyd has had his days while Chris Chambers is out with injury. If Chambers remains out, he could be a favorite long-ball target for Philip Rivers (after the pass-hating Steelers this week, of course).

Josh Morgan, WR San Francisco 49ers — He got his second touchdown and some job security Monday night and is likely to see a lot of looks come his way as the 49ers enter a favorable passing schedule.

Ones to Watch

Kerry Collins, QB Tennessee Titans — The Titans’ strength is in the running game, but they proved that they could throw the ball as well with Collins in Week 10. If teams can stop the run like the Bears did, Collins is capable of having fantasy-worthy stats, and it’s likely that will happen against the Jets and possibly the Jags in the next two weeks. I’d rather have someone more dependable like Thigpen or Shaun Hill though.

Justin Gage and Brandon Jones, WR Tennessee Titans — Jones and Gage are completely dependent upon Collins, but they could be worth desperation grabs if you have no depth at wide receiver. Gage is the more reliable option, but Bo Scaife, as a tight end, still gets most of the receptions on this team.

Jason Hill, WR San Francisco 49ers — When backup quarterbacks get promoted to the starting squad, they don’t forget the second-string receivers they worked out with at the beginning of the year. Enter Jason Hill, who had seven catches for 84 yards on Monday night against the Cardinals and came just short of a touchdown. He’s more of a possession guy, but he’s definitely got chemistry with the new quarterback.

Mark Clayton, WR Baltimore Ravens — If Derrick Mason missed time, Clayton could step up into his shoes as a productive receiver for Joe Flacco.

Jerry Porter, WR Jacksonville Jaguars — Porter has his first touchdown in Week 10 and could stand to gain when Matt Jones is suspended, but is that every going to happen? He’ll have to prove he’s coming along in this offense in future weeks to be worthy of an add.

Shaun McDonald, WR Detroit Lions — McDonald inherited the starting role opposite Calvin Johnson when Roy Williams was traded, but it’s hard to do much with it without a reliable quarterback. He’s had his ups and downs. If the Lions get the passing game in order, McDonald could see more action since we know the Lions will be behind in the tough matchups to come.

Ignoring

Todd Heap, TE Baltimore Ravens — His two touchdowns both came in the fourth quarter of a blowout, and one even came from the backup quarterback, Troy Smith. I don’t rely on a guy like Heap unless he shows consistency, and this game was the only fantasy-worthy one he’s had all season. Do it again, you heap of…

Droppables

Don’t flush all your talent, but if you’re looking to trim the fat on your team, these guys might not be waiting on for you. Of course, you can always run drops by me in the comments if you can’t make the call between a new waiver wire gem and your current benchwarmer.

Jeremy Shockey, TE New Orleans Saints — Brees is not relying on Shockey when they need a play as long as Billy Miller is around, and Shockey doesn’t even look like the best tight end of his team. He can’t stay healthy, and unless you have no need at any other position, I wouldn’t even carry him as a backup tight end at this point.

Felix Jones, RB Dallas Cowboys — He’s about to return from his hamstring injury, but he’s also one of those players who relies on the big play to produce in fantasy. If you have managed without him, I doubt you’ll need him with only two more starts that look promising (49ers, Seahawks).

A Fool and His Money in Week 10: Thursday Night Football Sneak Preview Edition

Since the games start on Thursday this week because the NFL has a dark side, we’re giving you a special sneak peek of “A Fool and His Money in Week 10″ in which Nick and Chadam will continue to disgrace themselves while picking Vegas’ NFL spreads for fantasy football fans.

Look for the full article tomorrow, and enjoy the Thursday night appetizer!

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: BROWNS (-3) over Broncos
Nick Takes: Broncos (+3) over BROWNS

In taking the Browns, Chadam says: While Brady Quinn is a huge douche and is questionable in some non-football categories, I can’t deny that he’s at least semi-talented. I think he’ll enjoy some success in his debut against a garbage Broncos defense that is now missing D.J. Williams. With their best linebacker out, who’s going to chase down receivers that the Denver cornerbacks fail to cover? Braylon Edwards will probably be the best pass defender on the field tonight.

In taking the Broncos, Nick says: Yes, the Broncos suck, but at least they don’t suck it down like Brady Quinn. I am picking against the Browns for the rest of the year on principle.

It would seem that Nick REALLY doesn’t like Brady Quinn.

Last Week:

Chadam: 7-7
Nick: 7-7

Current Standings after Week 9:

Chadam: 64-61-2
Nick: 66-59-2
Simmons: 66-59-3

On the Wire: Waiver Wire Free-for-all from Week 9

It’s time for change, America.

Bring me your injured, your underperforming, your studs gone duds. Together, we can reshape your fantasy team for the future into a team without injustice, without phantom starts (see: Willis McGahee) and without any of Shanahan’s running backs — well, maybe just one.

Yes, we can. Yes, we can. YES, WE CAN.

And on that very original campaign note, Fools in 2012.

I hope you all voted yesterday, but while you were busy at the polls, I was busy collecting a vast array of pickups that could help you make it to the playoffs. In fact, this might the largest waiver wire column I’ve ever written, and upon finishing it, I just wanted to call my friends in to look at it before I unleashed it on the world.

This week in fantasy football, we have another free-for-all on quarterbacks as injuries took the fantasy lives of several recent stars. Going with our theme of “change,” a handful of very bad teams had quarterbacks show promise this week, and there’s no pork in that.

With all the turnover and surprises, we’re going very, very in-depth with a long list of names and fantasy fortunes because, short of a few quick fixes, I wouldn’t expect many fantasy studs to emerge for your playoff run. Gather the depth you need and take a few chances if you can afford the roster space.

There are four more wins to be had, and these guys could be the ones to get you there and keep you there through Week 16 or 17.

It could happen in ’08, people. You can still write yourself in on that final fantasy playoff spot ballot — that is, unless you already lost Ohio.

Worth Claiming

Ryan Torain, RB Denver Broncos – I said he might be the last man standing last week, but now he really is. Michael Pittman and Andre Hall were both placed on the IR after Week 9, so Selvin Young and whatever RB depth Shanahan finds in a back alley this week are Torain’s only competition.

Don’t be scared off by Torain’s one yard on Sunday in three carries. Shanahan wants to bring him along slowly, but if Selvin Young’s hamstring is still holding him back, Torain should get the start against the Browns this week.

Of course, after one series, Shanahan will probably make sure that 75 percent of the touches go to Peyton Hillis so that Hillis looks like the best fantasy back in Denver. Oh, how I hate you, Leatherface.

Ray Rice, RB Baltimore Ravens — McGahee hasn’t been healthy all season, and after disappearing off the map, Rice exploded in Week 9 with 154 yards rushing and 22 yards receiving.

In Week 10 against the Texans, Harbaugh says that both McGahee and Rice will carry the football, but I’d bet Rice sees more looks. The schedule is unkind to Baltimore running backs after this week, but we know they’ll run the football until the very end.

Jamaal Charles, RB Kansas City Chiefs — Much like Torain, Charles is the one and only for the Chiefs…until Larry Johnson returns at least. Charles had 100+ yards against the Bucs, a very tough defense, on only 18 carries.

Johnson remains suspended for Week 10, so Charles could handle a majority of the load against the Chargers. While the Chargers are right in the middle — 16 out of 32 — as far as run defenses go, many a team has had a problem containing Charles. I saw him play at Texas, and when he’s making the right moves and holding onto the ball, he can be deadly — “Let Booby spin!”

When Johnson returns in Week 11, it’ll be interesting to see where the Chiefs want the carries to go, but the rock could stay in Charles hands for a good while with a strong showing this week. We know L.J. is lacking in the gold stars and brownie points.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB New England Patriots — He’s a lock for a score at least once in every Patriots game until Sammy Morris’ or LaMont Jordan’s return. If both continue to sit, “Law Firm” is a decent option in week 10 against Buffalo.

After that, his production against the Jets, Dolphins and Steelers will probably trail off until Sammy Morris or LaMont Jordan make him irrelevant. For now, he’s a solid depth option, and he’s got such a cool nickname.

Maurice Morris, RB Seattle Seahawks — It’s a split, but I like his half better than Julius Jones’ half. A few good matchups still to come for the Seattle run game, and the passing game doesn’t provide much competition.

Ted Ginn Jr., WR Miami Dolphins – He’s still not reliable enough to put all your hopes in after his low-scoring Week 9 performance — that’s why I ignored you last week, Ginn — but don’t take him off your radar just yet.

He doesn’t play a solid secondary for the rest of the season, so Chad Pennington might find him again and again and again. You’ll probably have to get him on your roster now to have him when he goes off again, so add him for some depth if you can or if you’re desperately seeking a WR to stay in the hunt.

Just try not to start him until he has another good game.

Shaun Hill, QB San Francisco 49ers — Hill’s actually my top QB rec this week if you lost one or need a filler for a few more weeks. He’s a Mike Martz quarterback, and he faces the Cardinals, Rams, Cowboys and Bills before playoffs. Only two of those teams rank in the top half of passing defenses, and those same two (Cowboys and Bills) currently have banged up corners. In the fantasy playoffs, Hill faces the Jets, Dolphins and Rams again.

He showed good ball control last season in giving just one interception in three games, and with Martz backing him, he could more productive than he was last season. Maybe he can break the 200-yard mark more frequently, which he almost did in the last half of the game in Week 8.

Brady Quinn, QB Cleveland Browns — Yeah, so that happened. The Browns are making the switch to Brady. I am sure the Browns female fan base is excited, but frankly, I don’t like Quinn anymore than I like Derek Anderson. In fact, I might like him less.

Quinn looked iffy in the preseason, and I couldn’t quite form an opinion on him versus Derek Anderson. He’s not exactly a rookie with almost a full two seasons in the Browns system under his belt, but I expect him to make mistakes, force the ball to Braylon Edwards and maybe even lean on the tight end. Fortunately, the Browns have a pretty good one in Kellen Winslow.

Seems like this move is just one of those “okay, fans, we’re trying” efforts, and I don’t like it. Still, if you had Anderson on your roster, Quinn should produce similar numbers after overcoming growing pains in promising games against the Broncos, Bills, Texans and Colts.

Tyler Thigpen, QB Kansas City Chiefs — When you’re a young quarterback, you just have to hope you end up landing somewhere with a dependable tight end and a dominant wide receiver to target. Luckily for Thigpen, he’s got that, and it’s done him well the past two weeks.

He’s also got a few trick plays up his sleeves and some nice matchups over the next four weeks: Chargers, Saints, Bills and Raiders with fantasy playoffs against Broncos, Chargers and Dolphins.

It’s hard to recommend him with any certainty because he’s no lock to put up points, but he hasn’t turned over the ball and has Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. I think he’s a sleeper to keep it up through the end of the season, but at least you know that he won’t hurt you too badly if he falls in production.

And for some reason, it disgusts me less to recommend young Thigpen than it did to point out Kyle Orton’s success this season. Is it all in the neck beard? Only time will tell.

Sage Rosenfels, QB Houston Texans — Matt Schaub was knocked out for a month with a knee injury. Now Texans fans can finally get that Sage they’ve been looking for this season?

What? They don’t WANT him to start after he helicoptered his way back in the backup role against the Colts?

Rosenfels takes over one of the most potent offenses in fantasy football this weekend, but he also faces the Ravens, Colts, Browns and Jaguars before Schaub returns. That’s not exactly the stretch you want to see for a guy who is known to lead big drives only to end them with a fatal mistake.

It’ll be risky picking him up and expecting studs like Andre Johnson to produce for him in tougher games, but at least the Ravens secondary isn’t at full strength for Week 10.

Claim him if you have Schaub and don’t want to chance other options, but if you are already a lock for the playoffs, why not take chance on someone like Thigpen to produce for you? (Wow, now I’m cheerleading for the guy. Someone virtual-slap me.)

Daunte Culpepper and/or Drew Stanton, QB Detroit Lions — I think the best part of Dan Orlovsky’s current thumb injury is that he had “zero” doubt about playing in Week 10. Maybe Orlovsky’s struggles are due to his misunderstanding of math and percentages? Perhaps he thinks the Lions 0 percent win percentage is a good thing.

Regardless, a thumb injury has him out for Week 10 and possibly much longer. We don’t really know how long at this point.

Drew Stanton knows the system but doesn’t have the confidence of the coaching staff, which is probably why they signed Daunte Culpepper. But Culpepper, a week into the job and almost a year removed from playing football, will be a shaky start in Week 10 against the Jaguars. Marinelli expected him to pick up the offense quickly but not this quickly.

If I had to choose one, I’d take Culpepper for the possible start in Week 10 and the more likely start long-term. Culpepper could develop into a nice No. 2 QB during fantasy playoffs. He plays the Vikings, Colts and Saints, and he has “Megatron” (Calvin Johnson) to throw to each week.

Rex Grossman, QB Chicago Bears – See how that happens? All this outpouring of Kyle Orton love coming out before his game against the Lions, and then a fat Lion takes out his ankle.

With Orton out for four weeks, Grossman is your starter. He’s a shaky start against the Titans, Packers and resurgent Rams defense with his tendency to throw interceptions, but he’s not a bad desperation play.

At least he’ll be able to lean on Matt Forte outside of this week against the Titans.

Kevin Boss, TE New York Giants — Two touchdowns in the past two games, and even though he’s a little banged up with a bad ankle, he faces a Philly defense in Week 10 that’s admitted to having a problem covering tight ends. How’s that sound?

Dan Carpenter, K Miami Dolphins — He’s not on many radars, but Carpenter has put up 29 fantasy points in the last two weeks with seven field goals made and four extra points in that span. The best fantasy sign is that the Dolphins are lining him up deep. Three of his attempts in Week 9 were more than 40 yards out, but he hasn’t been asked to kick one longer than 50.

If he continues to get this many long field goal chances or more extra points once the Dolphins’ offense starts scoring left and right against a bunch of weak fantasy defenses (Seahawks, Raiders, Patriots, Rams, Bills, 49ers, Chiefs), then he could be one of the best kickers to own in the second half.

Guys you probably should have already picked up:

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE Minnesota Vikings — Three touchdowns in his past four games.

Derrick Mason, WR Baltimore Ravens — PPR monster with 130+ and a score in Week 9, but a rough schedule from here.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR Indianapolis Colts — Two TDs in Week 9.

Greg Camarillo, WR Miami Dolphins — More reliable than Ginn and 100+ yards in Week 9.

Kevin Curtis, WR Philadelphia Eagles – Finally showing up with 83 yards, but tough schedule the rest of the way.

Tim Hightower, RB Arizona Cardinals — Now starting and eating touchdowns for breakfast.

Matt Ryan, QB Atlanta Falcons — Not blasting you out of your seat, but good QB2 production and getting better.

Marc Bulger, QB St. Louis Rams — He’s sort of back and has an easier schedule in the second half.

Ones to Watch

Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker, RB New Orleans Saints — We’re getting close to Deuce McAllister’s appeal, so we’ll know soon enough whether he’ll be leaving the Saints’ services. If so, both are likely to produce numbers until the return of Reggie Bush, who might throw things out the window again.

Week 11, the Saints have the Chiefs followed by the Packers, and if for some reason Bush isn’t back by Week 14, then the Saints backs have Atlanta, Chicago and Detroit. Playing the Lions in the fantasy championship game? Check and mate.

Selvin Young, RB Denver Broncos — If he’s healthy, the starting could be his…or Peyton Hillis’…or it might belong to the guy that guy in a cubicle next to you. Regardless, he has value when healthy, and if someone was silly enough to drop him, he could fight for you in games against the Browns, Falcons, Raiders, Jets, Chiefs and Bills.

The playoff section of that run isn’t great, but his return in Week 11 could help you get there. Keep in mind that the Broncos are now a pass-first offense, and pick him up as you see fit.

J.J. Arrington, RB Arizona Cardinals — The speedy back has taken the No. 2 spot in the RB depth chart now that Tim Hightower is the starter. Edgerrin James is not likely to get more than handful of carries in any game, and on Sunday, Arrington was involved in 11 plays with 62 rushing yards and 57 receiving yards.

As long as he’s being used as the compliment to Hightower, Arrington could post similarly impressive numbers, but he’s boom or bust as a third-down, big-play back. Let’s see what he can do against the 49ers in Week 10 before he goes on a roster.

Sidney Rice, WR Minnesota Vikings — The Vikings have been more productive passing the ball, but Rice is just now returning from injury and might not have a chance to make an impact. Even though he caught a TD on Sunday, that was his only catch. Still, if you are preparing for the playoffs, he gets the Lions, Cardinals and Falcons in Weeks 14-16. That’s promising if he gets back in this offense by then.

Mark Bradley, WR Kansas City Chiefs — A former QB and emerging star in the Kansas City offense. He’s been a big part of Thigpen’s success and might be worth jumping on now if you can afford to chance it. Bowe and Tony Gonzalez can both pull double coverage at times to leave Bradley open for a play.

Byron Leftwich, QB Pittsburgh Steelers — If Roethlisberger misses any time with his bruised AC joint, Leftwich should be a capable filler QB in Week 10 against the Colts. Don’t underestimate the Colts passing defense, but to win, the Steelers might have to put some points on the board.

An even better matchup looms large in Week 11 against the Chargers, but I doubt fantasy owners can expect Big Ben to miss that much time. If you just can’t find a QB this week or want to take a chance, keep your eye on the QB situation in Pittsburgh.

Joe Flacco, QB Baltimore Ravens — If you need a quarterback, there are plenty of options this week (see above), but Flacco should be one of the best. He has put up a very good two weeks, and he faces the Texans.

After Week 10 though, he’s probably not worth a roster spot with an intimidating run against the Giants, Eagles, Bengals, Redskins, Steelers and Cowboys.

Yeah, if you don’t need him this week, just keep an eye on him in case miracle juice starts spraying out of his arm after Week 10.

Brent Celek, TE Philadelphia Eagles — So he’s more than just a backup…maybe? Celek, much like Billy Miller, now makes an intriguing fill as long as L.J. Smith is hurt. Smith is expected to make his return in Week 10, but he is currently still listed as questionable.

If he doesn’t go, Celek could get the start against the Giants, ranked second against the pass, and even if Smith is healthy, we’ll have to see how much the Week 9 franchise record-setting performance helped Celek’s stock with the Philly coaching staff.

Consistency is hard to find in the Philly offense, but Celek is worth keeping an eye on if you need depth at the tight end position.

Desmond Clark, TE Chicago Bears — Greg Olsen is to Kyle Orton as Desmond Clark is to Rex Grossman. Rexy just likes the big guy better, and word on the street is that the Chicago passing game might move back to using the tight ends more as short-range options.

Keep your eye on Clark to see how much he factors in. We know Rex will have to escape quite a bit against the Titans in Week 10 and the Vikings in Week 13 until Kyle Orton comes back under the helm.

But even if he finds success with Rex, Clark’s not a playoff depth option when Kyle Orton returns.

Derek Fine, TE Buffalo Bills — Fine is one “fine” tight end (Forgive me) if you just look at his 43-yard, one touchdown stat line from Week 9, but the rest of this season, he’s put up blanks.

If Buffalo involves him in the offense more frequently than the other TEs now that they are lacking a dependable No. 2 receiving threat, Fine could continue to be “fine.” (Sorry, again — they flow out like candy.) Keep your eye on him in Week 10 against the Patriots.

Defenses to watch for the fantasy playoffs:

Arizona Cardinals D/ST — STL, MIN, @NE for a defense that has been deadly at home.

Miami Dolphins D/ST — @BUF, SF, KC with a sack machine coming on strong and an improving secondary.

Ignoring

Cedric Benson, RB Cincinnati Bengals — 100+ yards?!? And a score? The saddest part of Benson’s Week 9 performance was that it was only the third 100+ yard game of his career. THIRD. That’s just crazy.

Unfortunately, unless your playoff bound, he probably won’t ever do it again for you. He faces off against the Eagles, Steelers and Ravens after returning from a bye in Week 10. Sad but true.

The only good matchups remaining on his plate are the Colts in Week 14 (who just got back Bob Sanders) and the Browns in Week 16 — come on, you playing Benson for your championship game. If you have a Week 17 championship game though, he does face the Chiefs, and that could be a worthy start.

Unless you’re going to the playoffs, you can probably safely drop this one-week wonder or wait to see what happens against the Titans. Geesh.

Peyton Hillis, RB Denver Broncos — He caught a lot of passes in Week 9 (116 yards and a TD), but it’s hard to see that happening again this season.

Then again, I guess I said the same thing after Leonard Weaver had his day for Seattle. Shanahan could use his evil force powers on this one and make Hillis the feature back in Week 10, but I still stand by ignoring him as a waiver wire pickup.

If Shanahan makes him worth something, he’s likely to be gone as quickly as he came…I hope. Torain is the guy I would grab from Denver.

Koren Robinson, WR Seattle Seahawks — I think that was a miracle play for the Seahawks, and lightning is not likely strike twice in the same spot. That’s a fact.

Droppables

Rather than make this article cross any further into the 3000+ word realm, I’ll end here, but if you have any questions about who you should drop to get any of these guys, you know what to do!

Hint: Drop them in the comments!

A Fool and His Money in Week 6

“Just when I thought I was out…they pull me back in.”

There are some crazily enticing lines this week that are making me open up my wallet again. Thanks, Vegas! Besides, I need to find another way to spend my time after I developed this nasty drinking habit after Sunday’s Texans game…

Dear Sage Rosenfels:

You didn’t look too good on Sunday. In case you’re reading, I left a hidden message for you in the article.

Signed,
The entire city of Houston.

I’ll post the answer to Sage’s hidden message in next week’s picks article, and I think you’ll enjoy it. If you think you know what the answer is, please post your guess in the comments. (The Sage picture linked to in our letter is via Gallo on ESPN. Check his selected pics from this week for more good ones.)

Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Chadam Takes: SAINTS (-7.5) over Raiders
Gotta go with the Saints here, even after their Monday night implosion. I’ll chalk Week 5 up as an off week, but if I were Brees, I would be praying for Colston’s return.

Nick Takes: SAINTS (-7.5) over Raiders
I think it’s absolutely hilarious that Reggie Bush had a great game, but the Saints still lose. After the game, he has to act like he’s not excited. He played great, but the team lost. Haha. The Raiders suck; they will lose this game by at least 10 points.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Chadam Takes: Ravens (+5) over COLTS
Out of the last three games the Colts have played, they have received two wins because the opposing team choked the game away and almost got a third if it wasn’t for Josh Scobee’s clutch kick. I’m really excited to see the Colts finish 7-9 this year, which will be followed with every media outlet passing the torch of “Best Manning QB” to Eli. Wait, you mean it’s already happening?

Nick Takes: COLTS (-5) over Ravens
The Ravens have looked good this season, but I just can’t get myself to trust Joe Flacco. The Colts desperately need a good game at home to build some confidence.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets

Chadam Takes: JETS (-6) over Bengals
Favre, your team’s line is too good to pass up. Thank God the Bengals haven’t had their bye week yet because I really like betting against them.

Nick Takes: Bengals (+6) over JETS
The Bengals are going to pounce on somebody soon, and I’m gambling this week is when it happens.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chadam Takes: BUCCANEERS (-1.5) over Panthers
Under normal circumstances, I would laugh at a team that only managed one touchdown against Denver, but I have no idea what to think of Carolina yet. They’re 4-1, but two of those wins are home games against Atlanta and Kansas City, not exactly world-beaters. Also, the Panthers barely beat San Diego in Week 1. I’ll go with my Bucs on this one.

Nick Takes: Panthers (+1.5) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs need quarterback security badly. The whole team just seems restless and out of sync in my opinion. Getting shutdown by the Broncos defense after the Chiefs destroyed the Broncos in Week 4 is embarrassing.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Chadam Takes: Lions (+13.5) over VIKINGS
Come on, even if you don’t like Detroit, you have to love it when Rod Marinelli gets interviewed: “I’m a living example of what fight is all about,” or “Ever, ever…I love this game too much.” It’s like he’s trying to generate stereotypical football coach quotes, but he learned them from Mike Tyson. And yes, that’s the only reason why I’m taking the Lions.

Nick Takes: Lions (+13.5) over VIKINGS
I fully expect the Vikings to win this game, but I expect the Lions to get enough garbage points on the Vikings secondary to justify taking the points. That is, assuming the Lions’ players are still trying. The trade deadline hasn’t passed yet, so hopefully, they can manage trying for one week more before they officially give up.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Chadam Takes: FALCONS (+3) over Bears
Kyle Orton probably got more ass than normal after playing like Brady last week against Detroit. That said, I’m warming up to the Falcons at home, and the Bears’ wins over the Colts and Lions aren’t impressive given the current play of those two teams.

Nick Takes: Bears (-3) over FALCONS
Both of these teams have been playing surprisingly well. I like the Bears defense a little more in this game though.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

Chadam Takes: TEXANS (-3) over Dolphins
You wonder why fans of tortured teams always wait for the other shoe to drop until the game is over. It’s games like the Colts-Texans match last week. I’m starting to understand what Red Sox fans went through a little more. In case you’re wondering, I’ll be watching the upcoming game with a handle of tequila in case something goes wrong. Speaking of Miami, apparently the only play you need to use to go to the Super Bowl is the direct snap to Ronnie Brown. You’d think that after seeing Miami shock two decent teams by using that play repetitively, the Texans coaching staff would pick up on it and practice defending it…right? My liver hopes so.

Nick Takes: Dolphins (+3) over TEXANS
Last week, I witnessed one of the greatest meltdowns for a professional sports team. The Texans found unthinkable ways to lose that game to the Colts. How can that same team possibly be favored in any game, much less against a team that just beat the Patriots and Chargers in consecutive games?

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins

Chadam Takes: REDSKINS (-13.5) over Rams
Okay, there’s no way I’m betting against the Redskins and the Zorn Supremacy again. They’ve cost me three wins already this year. Are they really a top-three team? That division is awesome. The NFC East might only have five losses all year outside of the division between all four teams. (They only have one through five weeks: Philly to Chicago in Week 4.)

Nick Takes: REDSKINS (-13.5) over Rams
Hail to the Redskins! I’ve been riding shotgun on the Redskins’ bandwagon since before the season started, and I don’t plan on getting off anytime soon — that’s what she said.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Chadam Takes: BRONCOS (-3.5) over Jaguars
Unless Jacksonville traded Garrard for Cutler yesterday and I missed it, Denver should be getting a touchdown at home against the Jags.

Nick Takes: Jaguars (+3.5) over BRONCOS
I’m still pissed at the Broncos, and I am choosing the Jags purely out of spite. Maybe the Jags can find their running game in Denver.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers

Chadam Takes: Eagles (-5.5) over 49ERS
Really? The Eagles are last place in their division? Donovan McNabb hasn’t had a great game since the first week, but I think he’ll get back on track here.

Nick Takes: Eagles (-5.5) over 49ERS
The Eagles are getting dangerously close to panic time. They need this win if they want to keep pace with the other NFC East teams for the two NFC wild-card spots. I’m guessing they find a way to win.

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals

Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-5.5) over CARDINALS
So what happened there, Dallas? I put some blind faith in you by picking you to win without even looking at the spread, and you almost end the Bengals’ quest to go winless? I think Owens and Romo wanted to let Cincinnati win so they could go to the inevitable boat party that Cedric Benson would throw after the game. This line is pretty low; the Cowboys are too talented to put less than 30 on the board.

Nick Takes: Cowboys (-5.5) over CARDINALS
The Cowboys are better than the Cardinals. There’s my analysis on the game. But do the Cowboys have anybody that made the NFL All-‘N Sync team? Turns out they are better than the Cardinals in that respect, too.

Nick PRESENTS The 2008 All-‘N Sync Team:

After thinking about it, Matt Leinart isn’t Justin Timberlake. J.T. was the leader of the group who famously dated Britney Spears and Cameron Diaz. Hmm…who does that sound like in the NFL? Tony Romo! Romo leads the Cowboys, dated singer Carrie Underwood and currently shacks up with Jessica Simpson. Here are the other members of the All-‘N Sync team:

  • Tony Romo A.K.A. Justin Timberlake: For the reasons mentioned above.
  • Matt Leinart A.K.A. J.C. Chasez: He doesn’t lead the group, but he still gets plenty of groupie action.
  • Brady Quinn A.K.A. Lance Bass: Eventually, he will come out of the closet and be on “Dancing with the Stars.”
  • Jared Lorenzen A.K.A. Joey Fatone: He is the fat one of the group and wasn’t even very good as a backup.
  • Jon Kitna A.K.A. Chris Kirkpatrick: Do you realize Jon Kitna is in the fairly exclusive 30,000+ yards passing club? Yeah, most of you didn’t realize Kirkpatrick was in ‘N Sync, and now that you know, you still think he sucks.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Chadam Takes: Packers (+2.5) over SEAHAWKS
Every once in a while, I see a line and think “Did Vegas mean -2.5? Or possibly -12.5?” What a joke. This bet almost seems too good to be true.

Nick Takes: Packers (+2.5) over SEAHAWKS
This spread is a joke, right? The Seahawks shouldn’t be favored against anybody other than the Rams. I’m dropping some serious coin on this game.

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers

Chadam Takes: Patriots (+6) over CHARGERS
Lines like this one make me wonder how good Vegas thinks the Patriots are. To be fair, I have no idea either. I’m interested to see if either team will run direct snaps and hope the other team didn’t learn from its previous game against Miami.

Nick Takes: Patriots (+6) over CHARGERS
The Chargers have been very disappointing. The Patriots have been disappointing, too, but the Patriots have won most of their games while being disappointing. That’s the difference.

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns

Eli Manning "Unstoppable" Ad Courtesy of Citizen Watches (via Sports Illustrated)

Eli Manning "Unstoppable" Ad Courtesy of Citizen Watches (via Sports Illustrated)

Chadam Takes: Giants (-7.5) at BROWNS
Forget Peyton. Elisha is now Archie’s favorite daughter. Poor Cooper. He must have one hell of an inferiority complex. I’ll admit, as long as Elisha is facing the Browns and Seahawks, he’s looking damn good. I would even go so far as to say he’s unstoppable, har har.

Nick Takes: Giants (-7.5) over BROWNS
It’s tough not to pick the Giants right now. They have shown they are very good at picking on the losers of the league. The Browns happen to be one of the losers of the league. You do the math.

Last Week:

Nick: 9-3-1
Chadam: 5-7-1

Current Standings after Week 5:

Chadam: 36-33-2
Nick: 39-30-2
Simmons
: 37-34-3

A Fool and His Money in Week 5

Chadam and Nick had a rough weekend. Nick was swamped last week trying to put together a fantasy lineup that could stop my crushing force of a team in our shared fantasy football league. Unfortunately for Nick, it looks like his efforts were in vain.

Chadam, on the other hand, spent the entire weekend crying uncontrollably because Chris Simms was cut from the Tennessee Titans roster. I’m not exactly sure if that was the reason, but he has a special place in his heart for the spleenless. If he has a better reason than that for why he was unable to get his picks into a cohesive article before Sunday, he’ll have to let you know in the comments.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Chadam Takes: Bears (-3.5) over LIONS
I think Forte runs for 500 yards, and that’s a conservative guess.

Nick Takes: Bears (-3.5) over LIONS
Does anybody know if Jon Kitna is back? Better question: Does anyone care? Will the Lions play better without Matt Millen there? It doesn’t matter. The Bears defense looks like it’s back to being healthy and dominating.

Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers

Chadam Takes: Falcons over PACKERS

Nick Takes: Falcons over PACKERS

Jacob’s Ed. Note: Both Nick and Chadam were unable to register a pick since the spread on this game was not set until late on Saturday. Apparently, Vegas wanted to find out whether Aaron Rodgers would be playing or not. We’ll have to count this pick as a “no contest” for the sake this battle of betting.

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins

Chadam Takes: Chargers (-6.5) over DOLPHINS
I’m not sure what to think of these two teams. Both have been all over the place these last few weeks. L.T. hasn’t really looked like himself lately, but if there was ever a game for him to blow up, it’s this week’s game against the Dolphins.

Nick Takes: Chargers (-6.5) over DOLPHINS
The only reason I’m hesitant on this pick is because the Dolphins are at home and have had an extra week to prepare for this game, but the Chargers showed last week against the Raiders that they are capable of coming back against a team they shouldn’t be losing to in the first place.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants

Chadam Takes: GIANTS (-7) over Seahawks
Vegas really doesn’t make these Seahawks games hard to bet against. This game is one of my favorite lines of the week. Too bad Favre stomped on my heart and wallet. Otherwise, I’d probably bet on this game.

Nick Takes: GIANTS (-7) over Seahawks
The Seahawks are going to get better as Deion Branch and Bobby Engram get back in the mix but not this week. It will take some time for them to get back into a rhythm, and the Giants are at home after a bye.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

Chadam Takes: EAGLES (-5.5) over Redskins
If the Redskins win here, I’m a believer.

Nick Takes: Redskins (+5.5) over EAGLES
Did Vegas not watch these two teams last week? Redskins knocked off everybody’s favorite team, and the Eagles looked dreadful losing to the Bears. Taking the points on this one is a no-brainer. I would also like to remind everyone that I bet on the Redskins to win straight up last week. Cha-ching!

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers

Chadam Takes: PANTHERS (-9.5) over Chiefs
Yeah, there’s no chance the Chiefs surprise the Panthers after the Broncos got stomped last week.

Nick Takes: PANTHERS (-9.5) over Chiefs
I would like the Chiefs in this one if only they weren’t going against one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs could keep the score within double digits, but only if L.J. gets going. I’m saying that doesn’t happen.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Chadam Takes: Titans (+2.5) over RAVENS
I’m officially driving this Titans bandwagon. They always seem to get really low spreads. This defense is for real, and I’ll be taking them until they don’t cover for a few weeks in a row.

Nick Takes: Titans (+2.5) over RAVENS
This pick is my equivalent of Chadam’s “rent money special.” I don’t care if this game is a trap bet by Vegas or not. Kerry Collins better be smart enough not to give the Ravens defense any points because the Ravens offense is definitely not going to see the end zone in this game.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Chadam Takes: TEXANS (+3) over Colts
The Texans are going to rip off four straight wins on this homestand they have coming up. My man crush Steve Slaton looks primed for a big game against this punchless, Sanders-less defense.

Nick Takes: Colts (-3) at TEXANS
The Texans looked good in their loss last week, but the Colts just had their bye and come in with this game as a must-win to avoid starting 1-3. I like the Colts to rise up and take this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos

Chadam Takes: Buccaneers (+3) over BRONCOS
Nick got screwed by the Broncos last week on a teaser, and if there were enough asterisks in the world, I’d post his email rant on Cutler. Let’s just say I don’t think Mary Tyler Moore will be asking Nick to be a spokesperson for the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation.

Nick Takes: Buccaneers (+3) at BRONCOS
I had a pretty big bet on a 10-point teaser last week, and all the Broncos had to do what beat the Chiefs straight up just like the 12 teams before them did. They let me down. The Broncos are in my doghouse until further notice. Anybody who loses to the Chiefs does not deserve to be favored in their next game.

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys

Chadam Takes: COWBOYS (-17) over Bengals
Jacob’s Ed. Note: Chadam made this pick without even knowing the spread. Bold.

Nick Takes: COWBOYS (-17) over Bengals
I have several questions about this game. Is Carson Palmer going to play? Does that even matter? Are the Cowboys going to give the ball to Barber more or get the ball to T.O. even more? Is it possible to turn down 17 points in an NFL game? I did a little research, and there have been 17 games through the first four weeks that had blowouts of 17 or more points. I like it when the same number randomly repeats itself in some obscure context. Let the blowout begin!

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals

Chadam Takes: CARDINALS (-1) over Bills
I’m throwing last week’s game against the Jets out the window since the Cardinals defense apparently took their bye week. All bets are off if the Cardinals crap the bed again this week.

Nick Takes: CARDINALS (-1) over Bills
I still haven’t gotten to watch the Bills play on television. Regardless, I’m picking the Cardinals to rebound from their embarrassing loss to the Jets and win this one for Kurt Warner. If they don’t, I’m guessing we will start seeing some drives led by boy band wannabe Matt Leinart. If there was an NFL version of ‘N Sync, who do you think would be in the group? Leinart would probably be Justin, and Brady Quinn would be Lance Bass for obvious reasons. After those two, I’m not sure who else would take part just as I’m unsure who the other members of ‘N Sync are. I’ll think about this NFL boy band and announce my NFL ‘N Sync team next week.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers

Chadam Takes: 49ERS (+3) over Patriots
Whatever. It’s sad the Pats lost Brady because they really aren’t interesting without him.

Nick Takes: Patriots (-3) over 49ERS
I can’t accept that the Patriots are nothing more than a mediocre team without Tom Brady. Everybody has always wondered if the Patriots’ dynasty was more a result of the coaching of Belichick or the play of Brady. We will find out in the coming weeks. I’m curious to see how the coaching strategy changes after the bye week.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Chadam Takes: JAGUARS (-4) over Steelers
I’m giving this Jags team one more week before I dump them. They stole a win from my Texans, and that victory could inspire them to not suck so much.

Nick Takes: Steelers (+4) over JAGUARS
The Steelers are turning ugly wins into an art form. I think this one will be a close game, so I’m taking the points. There should also be some extra motivation for the Steelers to win after losing to the Jags in the playoffs last year.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Chadam Takes: SAINTS (-3) over Vikings
Brees is going to throw for 300 yards, rain or shine. I’ll go with the home team for this MNF.

Nick Takes: SAINTS (-3) over Vikings
Deuce McAllister is back! I would love to see Reggie Bush in a locker room fight with another NFL player, especially a guy like Deuce. Reggie is jacked up out of his mind, but I get the impression that he is probably soft (for an NFL player) and from the suburbs of California. Deuce…well, first of all, his name is Deuce. That name immediately gives him street cred in my opinion. I’m guessing he has been in a street fight or two and probably while working as a bouncer for some house of ill repute. Deuce would never date a bimbo like Kim Kardashian. He would pimp a girl like Kim Kardashian. I’m picking the Saints because Deuce is back, and the Saints have had some wide receivers step up in the past few weeks to make up for the injured Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey.

Last Week:

Nick: 7-6
Chadam: 8-5

Current Standings after Week 4:

Chadam: 31-26-1
Nick: 30-27-1
Simmons: 31-26-1

On the Wire: Waiver Wire Gems from Week 3

Apparently, when you try and make things faster around here, it makes the Internet explode, and bad things happen. I’ll write that down, and, I guess, take it as a compliment that we’ve had such a large flow of traffic around at Fools lately.

I’ll try not to break anything else, okay?

The waiver wire starts to thin this week, but alas, here come the dreaded bye weeks. Every fantasy owner has probably seen how bad they can be, and they’ve fortified their teams to make up for it. Here are a few guys that might have slipped under the radar until now.

J.T. O’Sullivan, QB San Francisco 49ers

This guy needs a nickname. He just has too much punctuation in that name, so from now on, I dub thee JTO, Mr. O’Sullivan. If your league is sleeping on this guy, don’t. O’Sullivan is a Mike Martz quarterback. He’s going to take his hits, but he is also going to put up a 300+ yard game when he has a good matchup. If he has one of those during your current starting QBs bye week, he’s worth putting on your roster. His high risk, high reward play should pay off for fantasy owners hurting from Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson and Peyton Manning — oh, and that Tom Brady guy. This week, he faces off against the New Orleans Saints’ unimpressive secondary.

Brian Griese, QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

He threw a lot of balls for Tampa Bay on Sunday — no, that’s not what she said. I don’t think he puts up 407 yards and two touchdowns each week without overtime, but he’s worth getting on your roster now. If his plentiful passing attempts continue, he could be fantasy-worthy where Jeff Garcia was only a capable fantasy backup QB. Griese definitely takes on high-end backup status now with the potential to do more when you need him (against Detroit, Minnesota, New Orleans and Atlanta).

Jerramy Stevens, TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’m not exactly sure how he got off parole long enough to leave Seattle, but his return from suspension in Tampa Bay showed his effectiveness. With Galloway out and healing slowly, Stevens could be a factor in the passing game. It’s not like the Bucs have a herd of big name receivers. Stevens is one of those physically imposing guys like Vernon Davis who promise a great deal as a tight end. Unlike Davis though, Stevens could be consistent with Brian Griese finding him when it counts like in Week 3. I mean, at least we know he gets his hands dirty.

Dustin Keller, TE New York Jets

Brett Favre likes the rookie tight end even though Keller has a veteran squad in Chris Baker and Bubba Franks ahead of him on the depth chart. Late in the San Diego game, Keller was getting open and brought in a late touchdown. If you are hurting at TE, Keller might be worth a look — especially when the Jets play strong passing defenses that will lock out Jerricho Cotchery and that touchdown-stealing Chansi Stuckey.

Anthony Fasano, TE Miami Dolphins

Don’t you….dun dun da dun dun…forget about him. He might be Ronnie Brown’s favorite target.

Domenik Hixon, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith, WR New York Giants

They have a bye this week, but in Week 5, the Giants will be without Plaxico Burress for his INSUBORDINATION. I’m not sure what Plaxico did for those two days that he missed practice, but insubordination is a great word. Look for Toomer and Steve Smith to step up, but Hixon, who had a three touchdown performance in the preseason, could go wild again in place of the absent receiver. A good game in Week 5 could earn Steve Smith and Hixon more looks.

Correll Buckhalter, RB Philadelphia Eagles

Go on! Be a vulture! Don’t you see the bird circling the Westbrook owner in your league? Westbrook is only listed as day-to-day, so there’s no guarantee that he won’t take the field. If you are seriously hurtin’ at RB or are playing against the Westbrook owner in your league this week, it might be worth stashing Buckhalter. Remember that the Eagles play the Bears this week though, so don’t expect a Thanksgiving turkey to just fall in your lap. Westbrook owners, get him if you can. On the bright side, I don’t think Westbrook will miss more than one game — if he misses any at all.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB Pittsburgh Steelers

The fantasy football gods are smiling on the folks who are hurting at RB this week. Mike Tomlin even did the fantasy football players a favor by letting us all know PRE-waivers that Willie Parker wouldn’t be going on Monday night. Mendenhall will get his first start, but he hasn’t just dominated like everyone thought he would coming into this season — and there’s that thing he has about fumbling. He’s worth putting on your roster if you have Parker or if your alternative is Ahman Green. Limit your expectation against Baltimore on Monday night. It could be another low-scoring, defensive affair for the Steelers.

Rudi Johnson, RB Detroit Lions

Oh boy, did you see that great game that Rudi had against the 49ers! Now, let me break down what I just said: Rudi had one great game against the 49ers. He’s still splitting time at RB even though he seems to have won some points with the coaching staff after his 131 total yards and a touchdown this week. Both teams were running the ball pretty well, and I’ll give you that Rudi has the hot hand. Still, I am not a true believer. When you get cut from an NFL franchise that is hurtin’ terribly for some movement on offense, you must have a defect besides your high bill.

You can pick him up if you are lacking at RB, but don’t go dropping anybody major (see: anyone with less fluke potential). It remains to be seen how much the Lions will even be able to run the ball this year when they give up 21 points just by starting the game clock. There’s always garbage time?

Michael Bush, RB Oakland Raiders

Role is not certain right now for Bush, but with Fargas hurt, he’s a must grab. I like him almost as much as I like McFadden, and Bush could end up being a big TD vulture to McFadden’s flashy runs similar to how LenDale White and Chris Johnson work.

Brandon Lloyd, WR Chicago Bears

Chicago is where receivers go to die, but maybe, Chicago just makes all wideouts the inverse. Stay with me here. If you were a good WR and went to Chicago, you got pretty bad, BUT if you were a bad WR or a “Wait, who?” wide receiver, now you have a chance.

Lloyd seems to be benefiting from when Kyle Orton, lacking in the neck beard department this season, throws one out there. He’s had five and six receptions respectively in the last two weeks with 124 yards and a score this past week. He just might be a decent WR3 option at this point when the Neckbeard, ahem, excuse me, Kyle Orton is passing the ball against weak defenses — they still probably won’t let him come out to play much against the good guys.

Matt Jones, WR Jacksonville Jaguars

Sigh…he’s made the jump. I really hoped I could ignore the coke fiend until he dropped off the map, but he really does seem like he can carry a role in the passing offense for Jacksonville this year. If what they are saying is true, the pass-first offense in Jacksonville that Garrard could lead after their bye week rest could utilize a guy like Jones-y. Pick him up if you need him; just don’t talk to me about him.

Bobby Engram and Deion Branch, WR Seattle Seahawks

They are supposed to return Week 5, but Branch might be seen in Week 4. If they aren’t on a roster, make it so. Hasselbeck needs them like I need cake, and I NEED cake.

Ones to Watch — Guys to be cautious about, but get them if you need them

Damon Huard, QB Kansas City Chiefs

It’s Huard’s turn to try and right the ship for Kansas City. Thigpen didn’t “wow” with his INT-heavy performance last week. Huard is still an emergency or bye week option unless he has Dwayne Bowe on his fantasy team. You don’t really want to have Chiefs on your fantasy team unless you’re forced into it. My deepest condolences to all the Kansas City Chiefs’ mothers playing fantasy.

Trent Green, QB St. Louis Rams

Well, if you were impressed by what Bulger could do in this offense, wait until you see what Green can do. I think there’s already an over/under in Vegas for how many snaps he gets to take before his next — and possibly final — concussion. Green playing for the Rams might be the worst player decision (from a health standpoint) all season — including Merriman almost playing the entire season on a floating pile of knee.

Billy Miller, TE New Orleans Saints

Miller benefits from Shockey being injured, but he won’t do much for fantasy. He’s worth keeping an eye on while Shockey and Colston are down and out, you know, for kicks or something.

LeRon McClain, RB Baltimore Ravens

Another “wait and see” sort of guy that you can jump on now if you need some RB help. He carried some of the load while McGahee was out, and he got another decent dose on Sunday when McGahee got cut (as in bleeding, not from the team). As long as the starting two RBs (McGahee and Ray Rice) don’t turn into big bleeders, McClain will probably drop back into a TD vulture or short yardage guy. We know that the Ravens are going to run the ball A LOT with Flacco under center, so he’s got some value in the range of Michael Pittman, which isn’t terrible at the moment. Two touchdowns is nothing to forget about.

Miles Austin, WR Dallas Cowboys

You guys know that I don’t think a ton of popcorn-fingers Patrick Crayton. Austin’s a speed guy and more likely to assume a complimentary role to Terrell Owens than Sam Hurd, who T.O. sort of took under his wing as his backup. Crayton won’t disappear, but Austin could take looks away from Crayton when the Cowboys put three receivers on the field. Miles racked up 152 yards and a score on just two receptions. His big play ability could earn him fantasy WR3 status.

Antonio Bryant, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers

His value is dependent upon Brian Griese throwing as much as he did and Galloway’s injury. Two factors against your potential make you watch-worthy rather than snag-worthy. He assumes Galloway’s value as long as he’s a starter — not too shabby the way Griese is throwing. Take him if you are a Galloway owner, but you might be able to wait otherwise. He did have 138 yards against Chicago.

Justin McCareins, WR Tennessee Titans

If he is healthy and Justin Gage remains out this week, he might be the best receiving option the Titans have, which makes him pretty far down the list but he runs out on the field and tries to catch the ball. If you have a bye week in a deep league, you might not be able to be picky.

Jordy Nelson, WR Green Bay Packers

I got my eye on you, kid. Show me what those big hands can do, and you just might make a squad as my WR3.

And because rumors make friends in fantasy football…

Brady Quinn, QB Cleveland Browns

If Derek Anderson can’t get it done against Cincinnati, it might be the final nail in his fluke coffin. Quinn might get his shot.

Dan Orlovsky or Drew Stanton, QB Detroit Lions

Kitna hurt his knee in the last game, and the Lions might actually start looking towards the future. Orlovsky is the next guy in line, but Stanton’s got that bold “I’m supposed to be your guy” quality that screams “rebuilding.” In the immediate future, Orlovsky probably gets the judgment call in this one and tries to make up the 21-point deficit for the Lions. If you are deep at QB with a roster spot to spare, stash and grab. Whoever starts in Detroit is worthy of fantasy consideration just because they have so much invested in their passing game.

No one’s really worth ignoring at this point, so let’s talk…

Guys you should have taken by now:

Steve Slaton, RB Houston Texans — could be the guy in Houston moving forward

Chris Perry, RB Cincinnati Bengals – getting most of the carries and scored against two tough defenses already this season

Guys you can consider dropping:

Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers — Where are those two TE sets of dominance Mike Martz? Vernon Davis is not a starting TE anymore. Two big games with no-show performances. Bench until further notice or replace.

Ted Ginn, Jr., WR Miami Dolphins — I don’t think he knows he plays. Maybe he is just outrunning Pennington’s arm? If you can do better on the wire, you should.

Vince Young, QB Tennessee Titans – As much as I like him, you can afford to let him hang in the wind a few weeks until the QB situation shakes out for the Titans

Justin Fargas, RB Oakland Raiders – Injury or no injury, he might never get back on the field with Bush/McFadden there to tear things up

Alge Crumpler, RE Tennessee Titans — If you can find him on your roster, you are doing better than the Titans. They can’t find him on the field.

Kenny Watson, RB Cincinnati Bengals — not really threatening Chris Perry much right now

Kevin Jones, RB Chicago Bears — all they know is Forte in Chicago

Courtney Taylor, WR Seattle Seahawks — you know what will happen when Engram and Branch return

A Fool and His Money in Week 1

Now that we have the explanation out of the way, let’s talk Week 1 picks.

Jacob’s Ed. Note: Note that due to some compulsive gambling this weekend, we didn’t get the Week 1 picks up before the games. If you didn’t notice, congratulations — you rock. Starting Week 2, picks should be up prior to the weekend’s festivities. Now, on with the show…

Enter the Chadam

Hi. My name is Chadam, and I’ll be half of the two-headed team that will be leading you through the crazy world of picking NFL spreads.

Make no mistake; I am hardly what you would call an “expert.” My resume consists of a gambling addiction formed in my high school years, the borderline drinking problem that graces plagues most males in their twenties and the unlawful possession of irrational reasons for loving or hating certain teams and players.

In other words, I’m might be just like you and a large majority of the fantasy football community.

I’m a diehard Texans fan and will never bet against them under any circumstances, so take my analysis of their games with a grain of salt.

Elisha Manning is my sworn enemy and his older brother is a close second, which won’t affect my picks but will almost certainly rear its head in my commentary.

Finally, I’ll be bringing a few stats to the table. I won’t bore you with numbers, but merely alert you to some statistical trends that everybody can utilize, whether you’re in a friendly office pick ‘em pool or a regular weekend gambler.

My goals this year are to correctly pick 54 percent of the spreads, which is my rough estimate of the percentage that will guarantee you a profit against Vegas after taking into account the vigorish on bets, and to finish with a better record than Nick, the other guy.

It’s more than likely that my record will hover around .400, which allows you to insure a profit by choosing the opposite of whatever I do.

Enjoy our lighthearted analysis on the spreads, may your fantasy teams stay healthy this year and all of your sleepers pan out.

Pick Nick (Ed. Note: Get it?)

My name is Nick, and I’m the other guy making picks along with Chadam.

Chadam claims we are not experts, but I disagree. Do we not place our own hard-earned money on the line every week making bets? Did we not go to Vegas last year for the NFL Wild Card playoffs and steal some loot back from Caesar’s Palace?

We put our own money on the line, so I think that makes us experts. That being said, we aren’t experts that you should trust blindly, but we’ll do our best to point out what we think are the best bets each weekend and, hopefully, drop a little gambling knowledge on a few of you sports book virgins.

Consider this week’s picks my first step towards dominating Chadam this year. Enjoy!

A Fool and His Money…

Today, we’ll start with our predictions on the NFL opener Thursday between the Redskins and Giants and the rest of opening weekend.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants

Chadam Takes: GIANTS (-4) over Redskins

Talk about a lack of respect for the defending champs. I am in the camp that believes in the year-after curse for Super Bowl champs (The Steelers in 2006 are a good example) unless they prove otherwise.

That defense is a shadow of last year’s squad, and I can see Plax not trying as hard to stay on the field for all 16 games this year. That being said, Jason Campbell looked awful this preseason, and I think he’s another year from breaking out.

The Giants’ offensive cogs haven’t played enough games yet to be injured (I’m looking at you, Brandon Jacobs), so I think they’ll put enough points on the board to stay comfortably ahead the entire game.

Nick Takes: Redskins (+4) over GIANTS

I like the Redskins with points in the game tonight. I’ve been pretty high on Jason Campbell lately and expect him to have a breakout year despite his shoddy preseason performance. The Giants won’t have anything close to the pass rush they had last year, and I think that’s just what the doctor ordered for Campbell.

He does have one of my many personal sworn enemies on his team, Keenan McCardell, but hopefully, nobody will be counting on anything from him for the rest of his life. That guy cost me a playoff spot in one of my fantasy leagues a few years ago, and I will never forgive him for it. Ever.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Chadam Takes: Bengals (-1.5) over RAVENS

I think the record of rookie QBs in their first game has to be like 0-23968, right? With McGahee questionable, I don’t see where the Ravens’ offensive assault is going to come from in this one — unless, of course, Ray Lewis stabs somebody again.

Nick Takes: Bengals (-1.5) over RAVENS

I don’t like trusting the Bengals defense, but they are going up against an injured running back and a Division II QB who has never played a game in the NFL.

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons

Chadam Takes: Lions (-3) over FALCONS

Did I mention that I hate rookie QBs? You know the Lions are putting up at least 24 points. Do you really believe the Falcons will score 20?

Turner could run for 230 yards in this one though.

Nick Takes: Lions (-3) over FALCONS

I think both teams will do better than they did last year, but the Falcons have too many new faces to mesh together right away.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Chadam Takes: Jets (-3) over DOLPHINS

Poor Pennington. Everywhere he goes people seem to knock him for his girlish arm strength. What a crappy stigma to have.

Can anyone think of a worse fault to have (that’s NFL scouting report related)? Help me out in the comments if you have any ideas.

Nick Takes: DOLPHINS (+3) over Jets

Chad Pennington is going to be mad. The Big Tuna is always mad. Dolphins’ head coach Tony Sparano always looks mad, and Ricky…well, he’s at peace with himself and everybody around him.

I think the Jets need a little more time before Favre is comfortable, and I’m guessing Bill Parcells has no moral problem with asking Pennington about the Jets’ offense. I pick Miami in an upset.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Chadam Takes: Texans (+6.5) over STEELERS

This pick is more of a homer pick. I think the Steelers have a legit chance of blowing this game wide open. Sadly, since Houston is such a popular sleeper this year, they’re being overhyped in the spreads. Nick might be benefiting this year from my automatic Texans picks.

Nick Takes: STEELERS (-6.5) over Texans

I feel like I know what I’m going to get from the Steelers. I like that.

I don’t feel like I know what I’m going to get from the Texans. I’m going to predict they put just enough points on the board in garbage time to make me nervous but still lose by seven.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Chadam Takes: Jaguars (-3) over TITANS

The most ridiculous line of the day. I love the Jags this year, and hopefully, after creating their fifth turnover of the day, people might respect their defense a little more. Besides, you know the whole team will be JACKED UP to play if Matt Jones is back in the locker room.

Nick Takes: Jaguars (-3) over TITANS

Vince Young is my hero, especially after I saw him down on Sixth Street (in Austin) the other night and because of that whole National Championship thing, too, but I do learn from my mistakes. I’m not betting again on a QB who had a horrible preseason with a new offensive coordinator.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Chadam Takes: SAINTS (-3.5) over Buccaneers

I almost chose the Bucs in this one, but I love the Saints’ offense this year. So does Nick apparently — he drafted four Saints in the fantasy football league Jacob and I share with him.

It’s a win-win. I either get a correct pick, or I watch Nick’s fantasy team suck it up and start 0-1.

Nick Takes: Buccaneers (+3.5) over SAINTS

I like the Saints this year, but they are going to be playing in a relatively empty stadium against a very underrated defense. I like the Bucs with the points in this one.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Chadam Takes: Cardinals (-2.5) over 49ERS (NINERS)

Every year, the Cardinals are a sleeper, and this year is no exception. I don’t think they’ll come close to the playoffs, but for this game, I’m being suckered in by the Cardinals.

Arizona’s passing game is going to make Martz wonder why he picked such a terrible team for his system (No QB, WRs or offensive line).

Nick Takes: Cardinals (-2.5) over 49ERS (NINERS)

I like this bet a lot. I’m not convinced Mike Martz can fix the 49ers’ sorry offense, and even if he could, it still couldn’t compete with the weapons they are packing in Arizona.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Chadam Takes: NO ONE

Jacob Ed. Note: Chadam, being the smart guy that he is, failed to turn in a pick in this contest. Apparently, he figured it was such a lock for the Patriots that he blocked it out of his mind when he turned in picks this week. Clever, but for the sanctity of his pick record, mark this one up as a miss for Chadam.

Nick Takes: PATRIOTS (-15.5) over Kansas City

I absolutely hate giving anybody 15.5 points, but it’s tough not to like the Patriots in a slaughter over the Chiefs.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills

Chadam Takes: BILLS (-1) over Seahawks

I kinda feel bad for Holmgren; his offense will be Bears-esque this year.

Let’s see. He’s lost four of his top-five WRs from last year (Deion Branch, D.J. Hackett, Bobby Engram and Ben Obomanu), replaced the inept Shaun Alexander with the equally-inept Julius Jones, lost two offensive lineman in camp and now Matt Hasselbeck has back problems?

Holmgren’s probably counting down the days until retirement.

Nick Takes: Seahawks (+1) over BILLS

I would have expected to see Seattle favored in this game. Normally, that would make me excited, but for some reason, I’m nervous.

Oh well, you gotta have nerves to be a gambler.

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Chadam Takes: Rams (+7.5) over EAGLES

Which QB will be injured first? I actually think the Eagles will be great this year, but a healthy Rams team is no pushover either. I say Philly wins by three.

Nick Takes: EAGLES (-7.5) over Rams

I like the Eagles this year and think they could do some damage in the NFC. The Rams are going to have to prove to me that they are capable of staying close with opponents before I even think about betting on them.

Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers

Chadam Takes: Panthers (+9) over CHARGERS

How many passing attempts will there be in this game from both teams combined? 20? 25?

With Smith out and Gates not likely to make a significant impact, I’ll go with the underdog and hope I’m right.

Nick Takes: Panthers (+9) over CHARGERS

Not too much to say here. I like San Diego to win, but I don’t feel comfortable giving up nine points.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-5.5) over BROWNS

What a bad matchup for the Browns. Anderson, Edwards and Lewis are all banged up while Dallas is completely healthy with a motivated Pacman (Ed. Note: Now, Chadam, he goes by Adam) Jones?

Money in the bank. God, I hope Nick chose the Browns.

Nick Takes: Cowboys (-5.5) over BROWNS

I hate any team that has anything to do with the flamer that is Brady Quinn, but I don’t need to make this bet out of spite.

Cleveland finished horribly last year, and all their studs are coming of injuries. I’m laying down quite a few bucks on this game and in anticipation of a blowout.

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

Chadam Takes: COLTS (-9.5) over Bears

I hate to say it, but I think Manning’s knee problems are overblown. Harrison’s problems, however, are not, and my constant drafting of Anthony Gonzalez backs up my assertion. I think this will be a really low-scoring game — like 17-7. And yes, the only points for Chicago come from a Devin Hester punt return.

Nick Takes: Bears (+9.5) over COLTS

To be honest, I don’t like this bet at all. I’m not really sure what to expect in this game.

The Colts will be pumped up in the new stadium but will be missing Jeff Saturday. The Bears have a good defense, special teams and running game, but they have no passing game whatsoever.

When in doubt, I like to take the points.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Chadam Takes: PACKERS (-2.5) over Vikings

My dark horse NFC champion against the terribly overhyped Vikings? Only three points?

I’m betting my rent money on this one.

Nick Takes: PACKERS (-2.5) over Vikings

Good luck, Aaron Rodgers. You’re going to need it. The Vikings are going to be coming after you hard, but I predict Rodgers will calm down after a miserable first half and bring the Packers back to win it by a field goal.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Chadam Takes: RAIDERS (+3) over Broncos

Nnamdi Asomugha, cornerback (CB) for the Raiders (Ed. Note: FYI, Chadam didn’t sneeze), should be a household name. He is so filthy-good I think he was created in a lab with DNA from Champ Bailey.

Anyways, Brandon Marshall should be glad Asomugha is not schooling him Monday night…and Shanahan will torture my soul by starting Selvin Young but letting Andre Hall get 30 carries.

Nick Takes: Broncos (-3) over RAIDERS

I like Oakland’s young nucleus and head coach, but I still think it will take them awhile to learn how to win games. Look for Selvin Young to save the day in this one.

UPDATE: Friday Morning Trash Talkin’

Chadam: This Season: 1-0-0. Games Ahead of Nick: 1.

Nick: So I started off on the wrong foot by picking the Redskins on Thursday night’s opening game. No problem.

I’ll let Chadam brag because it will be the only time this whole season that he will be ahead in the picks.

So congratulations, Chadam. Maybe you and your mom, who you still live with, can go out and celebrate. I’m just going to concentrate on making more money this weekend.

Ronnie Brown rehabs his knee, lacks Brady Quinn’s label turning expertise

If you were concerned about Ronnie Brown after reading my article about how much you love him this season, maybe a little video about how he is rehabbing will help you calm down about that pesky knee. Yes? No?

[Video no longer available]

I don’t particularly like to hear that his knee isn’t as strong as it used to be. This trip to the gym was filmed just months ago, but then again, I haven’t been drinking the Kool-Aid that his knee will be ready — both mentally and physically — to start this season.

I don’t want to wait around until Week 9 to see the guy he was last season, and who says he will even be the same guy? He really just emerged last season, and Cam Cameron’s out of town working with another running back now. Miami might even be able to pass this year. The quarterback situation has changed–they have one.

Since you guys hate him, maybe he drops to the end of the fourth, but I think I’d rather have LenDale White.

I do have a sudden urge to go drink some EAS though. Doesn’t Brown know to turn those labels out?

Brady Quinn would have known better.