Week 10 Starts and Sits: Chris Johnson lives! Maybe. Sort of.

Even if Chris Johnson will only have one more good game this season, this is the game to start him. The Jaguars owe us that.

And Matt Forte could be in for a big game of his own if Matchups is correct that Trestman will lean on the run to protect a possibly not 100 percent Jay Cutler.

Is DeMarco Murray a safe bet the rest of the way? Keepers will take that chance. Continue reading

Week 5 Starts and Sneaky Pickups

Yes, yes. We never got to pickups this week. But if it’s any consolation, we didn’t have much to work with. Danny Woodhead is stashed in many a league and has been mentioned previously. Rashad Jennings isn’t exactly exciting.

Zac Stacy makes for a sneaky play or stash this week as he could potentially get the majority of carries for the Rams this week. And Justin Blackmon returns from suspension to save the day if Blaine Gabbert can deliver him a pass.

For more pickups or sneaky stashes, read up at Rotoworld, The Hazean, Fantasy Football Librarian, and FantasyPros. Continue reading

Week 3 Pickups: Eddie Royal takes the crown

It’s been another ugly week.

After there wasn’t much to do on the waiver wire in Week 1 and 2, I was disappointed that we really didn’t get any more talent bubbling up the top for Week 3.

I wouldn’t bet an eyebrow on any of these guys.

If you didn’t get Marlon Brown last week or if Joique Bell is still a free agent, clearly, you need to go after them this week, as their value only increased after their play in Week 2.

As for Week 3… Continue reading

On the Waiver Wire: Week 10 Pickups and Shots in the Dark

I gave away a victory this weekend, and I blame Antonio Gates.

With my tight end, Marcedes Lewis on a bye, I was forced to go to the waiver wire. At first, I tried to grab hot free agent Jacob Tamme, but I was outbid (FAAB league). Next, I tried for Visanthe Shiancoe but missed out again because of my priority. So I settled on Randy McMichael with most expecting Antonio Gates to sit this week out.

Jump to Saturday night, as I’m going over last minute news, I start to see reports of Antonio Gates as a “safe bet” to start in Week 9. Everyone who watched him is saying that he looked good. Since my league doesn’t allow for any roster moves after the final FAAB period on Saturday night, I had to decide right then and there whether I would take a chance on Gates starting and roll with Randy McMichael or whether I would grab another free agent.

Seeing Owen Daniels was available (but also questionable), I decided, for some reason that escapes my logical thinking in hindsight, that taking a chance on Daniels, a starter, taking the field would be a better bet than banking on McMichael to do anything for me.

So I started Daniels and, since I’ve been moving for the past week into a new apartment, I slept in a bit on Sunday until the first set of games had begun. What do I wake up to on Sunday morning? “RANDY MCMICHAEL…TOUCHDOWN!” And the nightmare began…or did the dream become a nightmare since I have just woken up?

Wait…was Randy McMichael “incepted” off my roster? This just raises more questions.

Even with botching my tight end, I had a 31-point lead going into Monday Night Football. My opponent had Big Ben, Mendenhall, and the Steelers D/ST, but I still had a very good chance. Unfortunately, that chance was dashed as soon as Mendenhall went to work. I lost by 7.7 points. Owen Daniels’ point total? 0 points. (He didn’t play.) Randy McMichael’s points for Week 9? 14.3 points.

The lesson? I broke a basic rule of fantasy football: Don’t second-guess yourself. You can drive yourself insane by treating your lineup decisions like a hostage situation, but second-guessing yourself based on limited information and rumors after you’ve already made one educated guess? Terrible. I should have never backed off of Randy McMichael, and you shouldn’t make the same mistakes either.

When it comes to your roster, it’s time to make the tough calls and stick with them. Leave the players you don’t want in the free agent pool. At this point in the season, if you don’t feel like Cadillac Williams or Ryan Mathews is going to help you win a championship, ditch them and invest in someone more promising. Hesitating will only cost you a chance to patch up your team’s weaknesses with some of the best free agents out there — and the fantasy playoffs are just a few weeks away.

So knowing that. Let’s get to some free agents that you may be able to take a chance on and ride into the playoffs. Not all of these guys are worth picking up outside of deep or highly competitive leagues, but if you’re searching for a filler or a desperation play at WR3, some of these might catch your eye.

If you need a quarterback, consider Shaun Hill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, or Troy Smith. I’d lean toward Fitzpatrick if you need a starter this week, but for the long-term, go with Hill. The Detroit quarterbacks have been putting up great numbers all season long, and now that Stafford’s out again — and probably for the rest of the season — Hill could be back in the driver’s seat.

Fitzpatrick continues to put up respectable points for a Buffalo quarterback even though his good days are likely behind him. Buffalo will only get colder and less friendly to the passing game.

But he’s done so much this year, and he’s made Steve Johnson look so good, you just have to give him the nod this week to see what he can do against the Lions.

Keep in mind that Troy Smith just joined the 49ers at the beginning of this season after the Ravens cut him loose. He’s had no offseason to prep for this offense, and he’s had to learn the playbook between snaps with the scout team.

Now that’s he’s gotten one official start under his belt and had a full bye week to prepare with the first team, Smith should truly be tested this week against the Rams. With his mobility and Frank Gore, he should be able to produce some fantasy points. He almost cracked 20 fantasy points in his first start for the 49ers, but I view him more as a prospect for the stretch rather than a fantasy starter in Week 10.

If you need a wide receiver, I recommend going after Jacoby Ford. He’s on a bye, but he holds the most value out of any of the recommended free agents this week. Ford showed his speed and gamesmanship on Sunday in fighting for the ball, something Darrius Heyward-Bey has never been caught doing.

Don’t spend any money on Ford if you have a FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) system, but he’s worth the speculative grab after the oodles of targets he received in Week 9. The Raiders return from their bye to play the Steelers in Week 11. Ford’s value should be reassessed after that game.

And don’t forget the injured and left for dead. Search your free agent pools for Louis Murphy, Sidney Rice, and Vincent Jackson. Jackson would be my first choice to acquire, but he won’t do anything until at least Week 12. Rice is a close second, but Favre is hardly the quarterback he was last season. He may not be able to get it done even if Rice can hit the field anywhere close to 100 percent.

Murphy, injured for several weeks, may have been dropped by one of your competitors, but he was Oakland’s one consistent weapon in the passing game besides Zach Miller until Murphy’s bruised lung forced him to sit a few out. While Ford has big-play potential and the trust of Jason Campbell, Murphy could do just as much damage when he gets back on the field.

If you need a running back, you’re probably going to have a hard time fishing for one of the waiver wire, but do make sure Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis are snatched up. BJGE, or “Law Firm,” disappointed in Week 9, but he should get back in the mix. Woodhead’s the most consistent of all the Patriots’ running backs right now, but he’s limited by the Patriots’ offense as a whole. Neither back is worth starting as anything more than a third running back or flex option.

There also may be some free agent blood on the Redskins’ running back depth chart. Ryan Torain should get the start this week, but Keiland Williams and James Davis should both be watched in case Torain is hurt again or falls out of favor. Maybe someone gave up on Clinton Portis? If so, grab him. Washington might not give him his job back, but he’s sure to have some part of the pie by the time Shanahan is done.

At tight end, if Jacob Tamme is available in your league, GET HIM. That guy is going to be Dallas Clark, Jr. for the rest of the season, and you can buy him on the cheap off the waiver wire. He’s probably more productive and value than the tight end you’re currently starting. Christmas come early!

Need more? Here are a few of my favorite waiver wire folks from around the Web:

On the Waiver Wire for Week 8: Matthew Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Jon Kitna are the quarterbacks you seek

The pain continues. We lost a lot of good men out there.

If you were already struggling to replace Jermichael Finley (like me) or fill the hole left by Dallas Clark (like me), I hope that you weren’t also relying on Tony Romo (again…like me) who is now out for the rest of the fantasy season. He may be back in time to play two games when most of us are in the fantasy playoffs, but that will only happen if — and that’s a big if — the Cowboys are in still in the running to make the playoffs. Plenty would have to break their way for that to happen.

Look at your quarterback’s schedule right now. If he fapicapces the Giants at any point this season, it’s time to strengthen your backup quarterback position. The New York Giants have already knocked five quarterbacks out of games this year after taking out Romo on Monday Night Football, and they’ll continue to attack.

Make sure you hang on to Kevin Kolb. Vick will face the Giants in Week 11.

If you a Favre owner, you might as well jump on the new quarterback bandwagon as well. Old Favre-ful hasn’t been putting up the numbers he did last season, and he looked terrible on Sunday night against his old team. His ankle can only get more fractured. Without a bye week in his future, I have to say it’s all downhill from here. Take a stab at adding one of these “Romo replacement” quarterbacks before the Romo owner does.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
Detroit quarterbacks have been the unsung heroes of fantasy through the first part of the year. Until the Giants knocked Shaun Hill out, he was keeping up with the elite of the quarterback class. Stafford, in case you forgot him, is the starter in Detroit, which implies that he’s even better than Shaun Hill, the backup. This week, he gets to play the 31st ranked pass defense in Washington. This could be the beginning of a beautiful quarterback savior-ship.

Jon Kitna, QB, Dallas Cowboys
The most immediate gainer from Tony Romo’s injury, Kitna is now in control of the offensive weapons in Dallas. This group is the most talented that Kitna has ever had at his disposal, but he’s also probably past his prime as a quarterback. Time will tell what he’s able to do with Miles Austin, Roy Williams, Dez Bryant, Felix Jones…and the less than stellar offensive line that the Cowboys have struggled to work behind this season. At least this week he gets the Jaguars, which shouldn’t pose much of a challenge. If you can’t get your hands on Stafford, go get Kitna as a safe alternative.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills
Fitzpatrick seems to have emerged as a consistent fantasy starter. He’s had 20 fantasy points or more (standard scoring with 6-point passing touchdowns) in his last three games, and he somehow managed to throw four touchdowns against the Ravens formidable pass defense — and two against the Jets. As long as the Bills continue to play from behind, Fitzpatrick will have value, and as I said in the Scoring Leaders post this week, he could rise to fantasy fame just like Tyler Thigpen did under Chan Gailey’s system in Kansas City not too long ago. But if you take a chance on Fitzpatrick, know that he’s a candidate to fall off a fantasy cliff at any moment, as the Bills are apt to do. He has his doubters. So while he’s doing well now (and you should ride it while you can), he’s a riskier pickup this week than someone like Kitna or Henne. I’d still take that chance. If you’re a gambler, you could even go with Fitz over Kitna.

Troy Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have passed over David Carr just like the fantasy gods did and named Troy Smith the starter for Week 8. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do. As long as Alex Smith is held out with his separated shoulder (2-3 weeks) and maybe even after, Smith will be worth owning. And Singletary must have seen something he liked in Smith since they acquired him in order to jump him over Carr, the backup quarterback, to be the starter and to be bold enough to go into Week 8 with just two healthy quarterbacks, Carr and Smith, on the active roster. In the next four weeks, San Francisco faces Denver, a bye week, and then St. Louis and Tampa Bay. If Smith performs well in Week 8, the 49ers could adjust their offense over the bye and go into Week 10 with Troy Smith as the official starter, keeping the job even after Alex Smith is back to 100 percent. Just saying, it could happen. The 49ers have talented receiving weapons in Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, and Frank Gore, who catches plenty of passes out of the backfield, and Alex Smith was putting up serviceable numbers before his injury.

Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins
Henne’s not going to come close to the elite most weeks, but he’s doing plenty of passing in Miami right now. He may not be on the waiver wire, but if he is available, I’d slot him behind Stafford, Fitzpatrick, and Kitna as a guy to target to replace Romo or Favre. And I think I’d rather start Henne than Matt Cassel, who just doesn’t inspire confidence in me yet.

Other Romo replacement considerations: Matt Cassel (QB-Chiefs), Josh Freeman (QB-Bucs), Sam Bradford (QB-Rams), and Matt Moore (QB-Panthers)

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Blount got his fair share of carries this week against the Rams with Earnest Graham injured and Kareem Huggins out for the season, and he made good use of them. Tampa Bay’s coaches now say he’ll be splitting time with Cadillac Williams in the backfield, and he’s started to pick up the blitz well enough to protect Josh Freeman. Make sure you get your hands on him now before he takes over the entire Bucs rushing attack. Cadillac isn’t going to put up much of a fight with his age and past injuries weighing him down.

Danny Woodhead, RB, New England Patriots
I’ve mentioned him before, so why haven’t you gotten him yet? He’s now an integral part of the Patriots’ offense, and he’s worth owning, especially in PPR leagues. His slow day against the Chargers may have led owners to dump him, but I think he’ll get back on track.

James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers
Donald Driver finally seems to be slowing down, and Jones is ready to take his role and run with it. Like the Colts, if you can get a piece of the Packers’ offense, you want it.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Reports of his “tweak” this weekend seem to be false, and all signs point to Gonzalez returning to the Colts roster this weekend, just in time to replace an injured Austin Collie. He should start ahead of Blair White if things go as planned, but be sure to check his status later in the week to make sure he’s playing. Without Dallas Clark, the Colts’ wide receivers should receive some extra attention from Peyton Manning for the rest of the season.

Blair White, WR, Indianapolis Colts
If Gonzalez doesn’t go, he’s your guy. Collie’s out, and White was able to jump straight into this offense as soon as he was signed from the practice squad. He should hold value until Austin Collie returns or Anthony Gonzalez unseats him. But this kid has staying power. As a walk-on in college, he eventually rose to team captain.

Steve Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills
If you believe in Ryan Fitzpatrick, believe in Steve Johnson. Other than Lee Evans, who had a huge week, Johnson has benefited the most from Buffalo’s rejuvenated passing attack. And he’s getting into the end zone consistently.

Mike Williams, WR, Seattle Seahawks
The big guy in Seattle has shown enough to be trusted after two games of 10+ points, and he’s got a nice schedule the rest of the way with Matt Hasselbeck.

Brandon Jackson, RB, Green Bay Packers
What? The Packers are finally letting him run with it? So they are. If you’re still holding onto Jackson from earlier in the season, keep him. If someone in your league dumped him after his weak first half of the year, go get him. As the weather turns in Green Bay, he could turn into a reliable fantasy option to end the season. Just like I said about James Jones, if you can get a piece of this Packers offense, you want it.

David Gettis, WR, Carolina Panthers
The rookie wideout landed on a lot of fantasy radars this week with his two-touchdown performance and with Matt Moore returning under center. Steve Smith will continue to receive most of the defensive attention, which could open up the other side of the field for Gettis, but I’d like to see him do it one more time before I rely on him. He’s a stash with great potential now that this offense is moving with Moore.

Dexter McCluster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Chris Chambers is out, and it seems McCluster is in. He’s finally being used in this offense, so it’s time to join the bandwagon. I don’t put much faith in Matt Cassel, but with the way the Chiefs are running the football and playing defense, surely he can manage a few plays in the passing game, especially with that nice schedule.

Chester Taylor, RB, Chicago Bears
I’m not too high on him, but he gets an upgrade this week with the Bears saying he’ll be handling goal-line duties moving forward. I agree with FF Toolbox that this probably doesn’t hurt Forte much. It just makes Taylor an interesting stash or wait-and-see guy when the Bears come out of their bye week.

Don’t forget about a few wait-and-see players I’ve named in past weeks: Danario Alexander (WR-Rams), James Starks (RB-Packers), and Arrelious Benn (WR-Bucs), just to name a few.

More waivering and wiring from around the fantasy football Web-u-verse…

On the Waiver Wire: Week 7 Pickups and Who is Danario Alexander?

Week 6 dropped a few gifts into our lap as a result of recent injuries and trades, which comes at a very opportune time in the midst of bye weeks

I normally do a little digging on players I list on the waiver wire in order to assess their potential. Sometimes I share a little tidbit of this info, but I rarely go into great detail. In one case today, I think it’s necessary, so I went the extra mile on the Rams latest prospect. I think you’ll see that the background of this wideout makes him an even more appealing grab than his stat line on Sunday would attest.

You may not have seen the Rams’ game on Sunday, but I think this is name you’ll want to remember.

Danario Alexander, WR, St. Louis Rams

Let me introduce you to Mr. Alexander, the actual beneficiary of Mark Clayton’s absence who stole our hearts Sunday with four catches for 72 yards and a touchdown.

Alexander had an injury-plagued college career at Missouri, which included two ACL surgeries and a wrist surgery, but when he was able to stay on the field for his entire senior season, he amassed 1,781 yards and 14 touchdowns and had the most receiving yards per game in FBS football in 2009. [Source: Wikipedia]

Unfortunately, Alexander suffered another injury the week of the Senior Bowl and had to have surgery in February 2010, which prevented him from showing his skills to any pro teams prior to the 2010 NFL Draft.

So, with concerns about his heatlh, he went undrafted, but the Rams thought enough of him to bring Alexander in and develop him as a project. When he didn’t make the team due to his health, the Rams placed him on the practice squad to rest up and continue to devlop for the long-term.

After the final roster cuts, Alexander began the year on the practice squad and worked on strengthening his left leg. The problem wasn’t the left knee per se, the one that has been operated on four times. It was atrophy in the muscles around that knee — particularly the quad muscle. The left quad was smaller than the right, and the fear was that Alexander might suffer an injury compensating.

It just so happened that his left leg size, measured by the St. Louis staff throughout his recovery, got up to par with his right leg just this week and just in time for him to contribute in the absence of Mark Clayton, who was knocked out for the season with an knee injury in Week 5.

Of note, the Rams signed Alexander to the active roster prior to Week 6 with a four-year deal. That’s pretty good for someone who wasn’t even drafted and unusual for a guy signed off the practice squad. But it just reveals how much the Rams want to hold onto this guy. They may not have given him much money, but they’re fully invested in making him a part of this young franchises budding offense.

You probably know the rest of the story. Alexander went to work immediately with the first-team offense in practice and took the field for his first NFL game in Week 6 (after proving he could play by doing standing back-flip, of course).

His impressive, out-of-nowhere day gives us some idea of what he’s capable of as a top target for Sam Bradford. He’s got the physical tools that no other Rams’ wide receiver can offer — size and speed. He’s on par with Jahvid Best in the speed department.

Some fantasy owners might shy away from him because this was just one performance…by a rookie…against a Chargers defense that was unprepared for him. The defense had no film on him. (They certainly do now.)

But I’m not afraid to go after Alexander on the waiver wire this week, even with reports that his knee was a little sore after the game. He’s the potential No. 1 on an offense that throws the ball a lot more than any of us expected the Rams to this year. He’s shown a commitment to the game and his craft as a receiver, and he’s won the favor of his coaches enough for them to shove him straight into the first-team offense off of the practice squad.

If he starts looking like the Danario Alexander that scored 14 touchdowns in 2009 for Missouri, I want a piece of that. So Danario Alexander is my No. 1 recommendation off the waiver wire this week.

If you need a WR3 with WR2 upside, go get him. He could be the Sidney Rice of 2010.

Danny Woodhead, WR/RB, New England Patriots

I mentioned Woodhead just before the Patriots went on bye when the Jets’ favorite little running back first became a part of the Patriots’ offense. After the bye week and with the Randy Moss-less offense, he looks to be an every week contributor for the Pats. As an added bonus, depending on which site you use to manage your league, you may be able to take advantage of him as a wide receiver. I’d take Woodhead over most WR3s on the board so go get him if no one else has discovered this loophole yet.

Chris Ivory, RB, New Orleans Saints

He ran hard on Sunday, possibly hard enough to earn a role even after Pierre Thomas returns. Clearly, he’s the best back to own in New Orleans until then, but don’t count on him to be a factor all season long. Ivory will have to learn how to share with both Thomas and Reggie Bush when they are both back to 100 percent.

Deion Branch, WR, New England Patriots

Did you see Belichick run over to hug Branch after the game? It seems that Brady and Belichick really wanted Branch. They love Branch, and while he might not score every week, he should remain a pivotal part of this New England offense. We know New England’s game plan changes every week, but Branch should be owned in every league. He looks like a great WR3 to start for the rest of the season.

Nate Burleson, WR, Detroit Lions

It never hurts to play second fiddle to Calvin Johnson, and we know the Lions are going to be playing from behind a lot this season and forced to throw. Burleson is a decent WR3 and borderline WR2 for the rest of the year as long as he keeps taking advantage of his opportunities by getting in the end zone.

James Starks, RB, Green Bay Packers

The Packers felt comfortable rolling with what they had at running back after Ryan Grant went on IR because they knew Starks was on his way back to the active roster. He still needs time to work his way into the offense, but if you’re hurting at running back, you might as well stash him now. He may not unseat Brandon Jackson for the starting job, but he could end up stealing touches and fantasy points from the Green Bay ground game. There aren’t a lot of those to go around the way the Packers have been passing the ball this season.

Before you go grabbing Starks to put on your bench, make sure you grab the “instant gratification” stashes first like LeGarrette Blount.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Speaking of Blount, I mentioned him so I might as well note that Kareem Huggins and Earnest Graham were injured in Week 6. The door is wide open for Blount to contribute on the field against the Rams in Week 7, and I don’t think that Cadillac will stop him from carving out a role in this offense once he gets started. The only potential setback for Blount is that he still needs to learn how to pick up the blitz and protect Josh Freeman.

Derrick Ward, RB, Houston Texans

Arian Foster, you have been Kubiak-ed. The Texans coach now says Ward has earned a larger role in the offense moving forward. That probably just means a few touches here and there, but he will get the chance to score every now and then like he did on Sunday. Pick him up if you own Foster or if you just another warm body at running back.

More fantasy football waiver wire goodness from around the Web:

That Little F-er Danny Woodhead plays WR on ESPN

Get this: ESPN Fantasy Football has Rex Ryan’s favorite Little F-er Danny Woodhead classified as a wide receiver for the entire year because he started the season as a wide receiver on the Jets’ practice squad.

I neglected to mention Woodhead in the waiver wire recs this week because he’s on a bye, and well, he didn’t seem all that exciting after just two games with the Patriots in the Kevin Faulk role. He just managed to score in both games. That’s watch list material but not necessarily worth a stash.

But if you could pick him up as a WR3 who just happens to run the ball at least a handful of times each week? Now that’s not a bad deal.

If you have a totalitarian commish who never allows for a flex spot and, instead, requires you to start three receivers and two running backs (not to name any names), you could create a flex spot of your own by picking up Woodhead, who is really playing as a running back, and starting him as a wide receiver. Want a guarantee that your WR3 gets at least 5-6 touches each week?

If you play on ESPN, it’s worth stashing Woodhead to see if his wide receiver designation becomes even more of a competitive advantage.

H/T Kissing Suzy Kolber for the NSFW “Hard Knocks” highlight reel and the ESPN Fantasy Focus Football podcast for bringing this to my attention.

What Randy Moss trade to Minnesota means for fantasy owners, a collection of thoughts from around the Web

Randy Moss returned to the Minnesota Vikings yesterday as the latest victim of the Patriot Way, the “get out while we can still get draft picks for you” way. After all, there is no “pay” in Patriot…err, wait, that doesn’t seem right.

While there is no “I” in team, there are two in Belichick. Above all, he believes in his system. The Patriots will go back to the team mentality they had before Moss, and they’ll have to rely on a lot of young potential stars like Brandon Tate and Aaron Hernandez.

On the flip side of that, Minnesota is pulling out all the stops to get Moss in the fold and on the field against the Jets in Week 5. The contrast is pretty incredible. The Patriots continue to get younger and stockpile draft picks, as is their custom. The Vikings just forked over draft picks to take on another big name, aging veteran to help Brett Favre, their other big name, aging veteran, win now.

For you Moss owners, I don’t think this trade changes much. He’s still a No. 1 target in a nice passing offense. Old Favre is no Tom Brady, but he can get Moss the ball down the field at least once or twice a game. Usually, that’s all Moss needs. He might even be more consistent if Favre forces it to him each week.

On top of that, since the Vikings are already coming off of their bye, Moss owners will have him available for all 17 games of the season — no bye week. Lucky you, although you might have thought that he took his bye last week against the Dolphins.

Brandon Tate will probably replace Moss in the Pats’ lineup, and while he won’t draw as much attention as Moss did in the passing game, he’s quick enough to take on those long routes and do some damage. He may also share time with Julian Edelman, but we’ll have to see how the Pats use each post-Moss.

The biggest fantasy value winner, in my opinion, is Aaron Hernandez. Wes Welker loses out with this deal because he’ll get a lot more attention now that Moss isn’t there to distract opposing defenses. But Hernandez was one of the Pats leading pass-catchers before this trade, and he should continue to play an important role without the immediate attention that may affect other Patriot weapons.

The Pats have moved to a more tight end friendly offense this season than what they used last season with rookies Ron Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez both playing important roles in the passing game. Hernandez is worth owning now, and Gronkowski is worth keeping an eye on. He’s developing into Brady’s favorite red zone receiver.

Tom Brady now becomes a little more ordinary, but New England won’t fall apart. Brady may have fewer touchdowns, but he’ll continue to throw as much as necessary to win games. He’ll stay among the top 10 at quarterback.

Danny Woodhead intrigues me with Moss gone. He’s scored in both his games so far as a Patriot and could play a larger role in the Patriots passing game, depending on how Belichick makes the adjustments. If Wes Welker can’t be Wes Welker, those short passes have to go to someone else.

I don’t believe the  Pats will go after Vincent Jackson now that they’ve stocked up on draft picks, but they certainly could if the asking price drops. Belichick will never overpay. Unless you have him on your bench already, I wouldn’t go after Jackson. We have no idea what shape he’ll be in if he actually returns to a team at all this year.

In Minnesota, Moss immediately becomes the No. 1 guy. He’ll take some of the heat off Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe and Adrian Peterson, but his passes and touchdowns will also take away from the rest of the Minnesota offense. Adrian Peterson should have more room to run, but it could be Moss catching the touchdown every now and then or taking those passes A.P. has been getting a lot of lately.

Brett Favre stands to play a little better, and he could even become a starter the rest of the way post-bye and with Moss (and with a chance of Sidney Rice returning later in the year).

Of course, Rice owners have to hate this news. This trade means that Rice will have to share targets with Moss when (and if ) Rice returns from injury this year. The Vikings might know something they’re not sharing yet. Maybe Rice isn’t coming back this year. But regardless, his value takes a huge hit with another top receiver in the mix.

At least it’s safe to say you can drop Bernard Berrian if you’ve been punishing yourself by holding onto him.

Hungry for more intel? How about a plethora of fantasy trade analysis from around the Web? Here you go:

  • The FF Geek Blog (a Pats fan) on bump for Brandon Tate, future of Pats wide receivers — maybe Vincent Jackson?
  • Drew Magary tries to make sense of it all. While I totally see this move the same way he does from the Vikings’ perspective, I can’t agree with him that this is Pats giving up on the season. I think this is the Pats’ way of playing smart. They knew they wouldn’t sign Moss to an extension, so why not get a pick or two out of the deal? They want to see what Brandon Tate and the rest of their young receivers and tight ends can do.
  • I’m not as optimistic about the Vikings’ offense with Randy Moss as FF Toolbox.
  • Chris Liss talks Randy Moss’ value at Rotosynthesis and how the Pats will spread the wall. Tom Brady definitely drops, but the Pats always seem to make it work.
  • KFFL touches on why the Patriots no longer needed Moss
  • Fantasy Joe goes player-by-player on how this move changes fantasy value. Aaron Hernandez will probably be the biggest winner of this deal. Well, Hernandez and Favre, I guess, who now has an excuse to throw the long ball all day.
  • The Hazean notes the damage this trade does to the rest of the Vikings’ offense.
  • Roto Arcade warns that you shouldn’t go nuts trying to acquire the Patriots’ upgraded receivers (Tate, Edelman)
  • FF Today points out that this trade hits Sidney Rice stashers pretty hard, even though Favre will have no complaints
  • Fanhouse thinks Visanthe Shiancoe is the biggest loser, but you could always go out and grab Aaron Hernandez now if he’s available. Consolation prize? Not a bad one.