No one likes to see a top quarterback injured, especially not the consensus No. 1 fantasy quarterback. Unfortunately, we find ourselves in that position this week. Continue reading
I was really disappointed in the election results. I thought we were all going to write in Doug Martin, you guys! I was looking forward to finally having a cool nickname for the POTUS like Muscle Hamster.
But alas, I guess you guys care about the economy and social issues beyond just fantasy football wins. What’s wrong with you? Winning fantasy football games was my main issue this election season.
So now I’m back to my campaign strategizing for RGIII and Doug Martin in 2016. You might think Alfred Morris would be his preferred running mate, and, in a way, he is. But Morris is much more secretary of state material.
We’re going with the same format for pickups as last week. If you didn’t like it…well, you should have spoken up last week.
Week 10 Pickups
Marcel Reece is the hottest commodity this week after both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson suffered high ankle sprains in Week 9. It appears that Run DMC’s sprain is the most severe, but there have been few updates on either running back since they went down. I’d expect them to both miss at least one week. It’s likely to be longer in McFadden’s case.
In their absence, Reece inherited most of the running back duties and caught the ball out of the backfield. Reece was already a trusted part of the offense, so I expect the Raiders to lean on him while they wait on their top two backs to heal. Taiwan Jones is a burner, but the coaches don’t seem very confident in him just yet.
Considering McFadden’s history, stashing Mike Goodson, despite his injury, could also be a sneaky move if he’s unowned as he might return to duty before Run DMC and supplant Reece. The Raiders have a beautiful schedule down the stretch.
Ryan Tannehill continues to do much with a very little in the Dolphins’ offense. If Miami upgrades at receiver, he could be a more reliable fantasy start next season. This week, he faces a very generous Tennessee Titans D/ST. I expect him to put up decent numbers as a bye-week fill in this one.
Jake Locker returned to practicing this week but may not play until after the Titans’ bye week in Week 11. This Titans’ offense could use his arm and mobility at this point in the season, and he’ll likely benefit from the signs of life Chris Johnson has shown these last few weeks.
Also on the injury front, don’t forget that Beanie Wells, Cedric Benson, and Vincent Brown are all expected to return in the next few weeks from the IR. If they aren’t owned in your league, you best add them now. Benson may be the most lucrative of the bunch since Green Bay hasn’t figured out their running game in his absence.
For the running back needy, Joique Bell and Jacquizz Rodgers inconsistently produce in their respective offenses. Unfortunately, outside of PPR leagues, their value will be fairly limited unless the starters in front of them (Mikel Leshoure and Michael Turner) are injured. It doesn’t look like Rodgers is going to come close to the offseason hype train he was riding this offseason.
If you need pass catchers, Emmanuel Sanders should fill in for an injured Antonio Brown this week against the Chiefs, which makes him a solid one-week play if not more. T.Y. Hilton is in a similar situation if Donnie Avery can’t suit up for the Colts.
Best of luck in Week 10, and remember…RGIII/Martin in 2016.
I pity the fool that doesn’t learn from his past mistakes, and 2011 broke a few of the fantasy football molds.
No Peyton Manning. The Texans made the playoffs. Rex Grossman is good? Okay…for a few weeks, he was good. And let’s not forget Reggie Bush was a feature back, and Cam Newton was a viable QB1 in his rookie season.
So what are we to make of this?
1. Rookies CAN dominate.
We can no longer claim that a rookie skill player won’t be a factor in their first season. Whether quarterback, wide receiver, running back or tight end, we’ve now seen rookies not only play well but absolutely dominate.
Cam Newton, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and DeMarco Murray will convince fantasy managers to invest in rookies like Trent Richardson and Robert Griffin III this season, and we can’t say they’re foolish for doing so.
2. The Gronk Rule: Tight ends MIGHT not be deep anymore.
The tight end position was considered deep in recent years, and many experts advised you to ignore Antonio Gates and wait on the TE position in your fantasy football draft. Then Gronkowski happened. He was an absolutely unstoppable force for most NFL tacklers and set records at the tight end position across the board.
With Gronk and Jimmy Graham separating themselves from the rest of the tight end pack so significantly last season, it forces us to consider drafting one of those two in the early rounds to get a jump on the other team in our league out of the tight end spot. If you do, I’ve already covered which tight end I favor.
Some of you may draft a tight end and a quarterback this year before you even have a running back on the roster. That’s just how much the tight end values changed in 2011.
In fact, Gronk’s out of this world stats (as impossible to repeat as they may be) may impact NFL offenses just as the Wildcat did just a few years ago. We may see the mythical “Wes Welker-like receiver” NFL offenses (other than the Pats) have sought give way to the search for a “Gronk” as part of a tight end tandem.
3. To the Air.
Quarterbacks matter more than ever in the NFL today, and we saw in 2011 that fantasy teams built around an elite passer like Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees could hang with any team in the league no matter who they were forced to start at running back.
Many fantasy footballers have experimented with drafting a quarterback in the first round with mixed results, but 2011 was the year that strategy paid off for a large portion of the fantasy community.
This year, you’ll have plenty of positions to consider in the first round, not just running back. But outside of the top three picks, you should definitely consider getting an elite passer.
I doubt we’ll see many teams make it to the fantasy football playoffs in 2012 without an elite fantasy quarterback on their roster.
4. Always Be Closing.
Despite a hot start, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson cooled off a bit at the end of the season. That’s not necessarily to say anything about their play in 2011 as much as it is to remind us all how important it is to constantly be looking for trade opportunities to help our team.
This year, I’m going to be a little more aggressive about trading players, regardless of status, when a deal comes together. And if the value is there, I may look to unload players who have particularly difficult late season schedules before I am forced to ride out their dry spell.
4. Darren McFadden is worth the risk
I’ve been too concerned about injury to consider Run DMC in drafts prior to 2011, but his performance up until his injury last season has changed my mind. The same might go for Ryan Mathews, even though he’s already hurt again.
As long as you fortify your roster with strong backups at running back, it’s worth considering taking the plunge on these injury risk studs.
5. Handcuffs are a worthy investment.
On that same note, I’ve often avoided guys who were stuck behind studs because I didn’t think it was very likely they’d see the field. I’ve always preferred players that were more likely to get a shot to shine or had a better chance of starting for me multiple weeks throughout the season.
Not so much anymore.
With the injuries last season, owners of Felix Jones, Michael Bush, and C.J. Spiller really reaped the rewards of holding onto a handcuff all season long. When it comes to running backs, as long as the offensive line is solid, it’s worth investing in a handcuff here and there, whether you own the starter or not, in case we see injuries like we did in 2011.
6. Inconsistency kills.
It’s not necessarily a new lesson, but the Jacksons (Vincent and DeSean) had their ups and downs in 2011. Both were drafted as top receivers, but on any given Sunday, they were as likely to score 30 as they were to score 3 fantasy points.
It’s hard to win a league when you can’t put a solid week together. So even though VJax won me more than one game last season with his phenomenal performances, I’m looking at consistency in 2012 — at the players that give me a chance to win each and every week.
There is a lot of depth at the wide receiver position this year, but don’t fall in love with 2011 total points without considering what they really did each week of last year.
I’ve been a slacker this season when it comes to posting my sleepers and value picks. I tweeted about quite a few of them throughout the offseason and preseason, but if you weren’t following me there, you might have missed out.
On the plus side, the majority of my true sleepers are low on the draft board in 12-team leagues and quite possibly undrafted in 10-team leagues. You still have some time to make these moves, and if these sleepers continue to nap in Week 1, you might be able to buy low on them.
Early Value Picks
It’s probably too late to act on these recommendations, but consider this my not-so-bold predictions for this season. I expect these players to outplay their draft position.
VJax is a highly ranked wide receiver on most boards, but I think he has as good a chance as any to be a top three fantasy wideout this season. I’ve targeted him as my WR1 or a high-level WR2 in all my drafts, and I really like his chemistry with Philip Rivers this preseason. This offense likes to throw the ball, and I expect Jackson to prove himself in another contract year.
As I tweeted…
Vincent Jackson isn’t really a sleeper, but I think he’ll be a top five receiver this season. If you can draft him as a WR2, more power to u
— FantasyFootballFools (@FantasyFools) September 4, 2011
Brandon Marshall at WR seems to be due for a productive season. Henne getting control of offense. Could be bust, but Marshall intriguing WR2
— FantasyFootballFools (@FantasyFools) September 4, 2011
When you start to look at WR2-level receivers, I like Brandon Marshall quite a bit more this season. Henne held him back last season, but hopefully, Henne’s great ability to audible the offense and the Dolphins’ determination to put points on the board will help Marshall return to his 100+ catch standard this year. He’s got his head on straight, which should, if nothing else, keep him on the field as the Dolphins’ biggest weapon.
I expect him to bounce up the rankings from his current draft stock, and if everything breaks the way it could, he could produce more like a WR1 as a WR2 or WR3.
Yes, I buy the hype. I wasn’t even an Ingram fan when he was in college, but now that he’s in the NFL on a team that gets to the goal line as much as the Saints, it’s hard not to like his potential. He could have an early-career Marion Barber-type season of 20+ touchdowns, and the Saints have looked to him at the goal line all preseason.
Here’s to hoping the split between Ingram and Pierre Thomas ends up being slanted towards Ingram in a big way.
Extras: I also really like Darren McFadden to come close to last year’s numbers this season, and he’s falling into the second round in most drafts. I like Peyton Hillis more than most, but I think you should have a “Plan B” rookie to step in for him if he starts to wear down (Mark Ingram qualifies here).
My favorite value pick this season, Stafford’s due for some good luck staying healthy, right? He’s being drafted late as a QB2 in most leagues, but I believe he has the potential to be a top-three quarterback if he stays healthy. His performance in the preseason only reinforced that belief. It’s safest to take him a QB2 and hope for the best, but I have taken him as a late QB1 in at least one league.
Don’t forget how productive Austin Collie was with Peyton Manning last season. He’s the only Colts receiver I want this year. Good value.
— FantasyFootballFools (@FantasyFools) September 4, 2011
Collie is risky. There’s no escaping the fact that he had some very severe concussions last season. One more could put his season in doubt. But, at least for now, he’s cleared to play, and his efficiency last season before his injury was off the charts.
Collie might miss Week 1 due to a foot injury, but you won’t want to play him Week 1 anyway without Peyton Manning in the lineup for the Colts. When Manning returns to the field, Collie should be a huge factor. While everyone else is considering drafting Sidney Rice, you can draft Collie and expect WR2 numbers at a middle to late round price.
There’s not a lot of faith in Reggie Bush out there, but I like his ADP enough to take as a flex or RB3. Last chance for him to be lead RB.
— FantasyFootballFools (@FantasyFools) September 4, 2011
This is Reggie Bush’s last real chance to be a lead back in the NFL. Rookie Daniel Thomas hasn’t wowed the coaching staff. Instead, they’ve been busy praising Bush’s work to be the feature back. He’s been effective when given the full load in New Orleans, even if he didn’t hold up all season. What you’re getting if you draft Bush is a quality flex/RB3 with the upside of being a RB2 some weeks.
I wouldn’t draft Bush in the early rounds, but a starting running back with upside on a team that’s determined to become more high-scoring sounds like a perfect bargain to me in the seventh round and on.
He always had his best games when Bush was out of the lineup, and now Bush is out of New Orleans. An ailing Marques Colston just pushes me more in Moore’s direction. He could catch everything Drew Brees throws past Jimmy Graham.
Most interesting camp quote of day came from Marvin when he said to blame him for not getting BScott more touches last year
— Geoff Hobson (@GeoffHobsonCin) August 1, 2011
I’m avoid Cedric Benson and drafting Scott this year because I think he’ll finally get his time to shine. Benson’s a workhorse and will probably carry most of the load for the Bengals this season, but led by a rookie quarterback throwing to a rookie wide receiver, the Bengals need as much running support as they can get.
Scott fits the West Coast system Jay Gruden brought to Cincinnati better than Benson, and he’s more explosive than Benson when give the ball. Whether he gets a chance to play over Benson this year or whether he’ll have to wait for Benson to wear down through the course of the season, Scott will see the field this season, and he’ll take advantage of that opportunity as best he can with little else going for the Bengals.
My two favorite true sleepers this season are actually tight ends, but hey, it’s that kind of that season.
The Patriots loved to use their tight ends last season after they traded away Randy Moss, and I don’t think Chad Ochocinco’s going to change that philosophy. Tom Brady’s going to throw to the open man, and the Patriots’ tight ends are two of their most difficult to cover receiving options. Rob Gronkowski will probably get more touchdowns than Aaron Hernandez, but not many.
At tight end, I like Hernandez and Gronk. AH has better ADP and could be as productive as Ochocinco this year. Pats love their tight ends.
— FantasyFootballFools (@FantasyFools) September 4, 2011
Hernandez is a bargain as a late or not-even-drafted tight end. I’ve been bold enough to take him as my starter in one league, but I feel even better about him as a late-round TE2 or as a possible flex fill. He could produce like a WR3 or better.
Not sure he can be a starting tight end, but Lance Kendricks is the only reason I’d draft backup TE. Expect him to be used like Pats use TE.
— FantasyFootballFools (@FantasyFools) September 4, 2011
It’s hard to know what this guy even looks like because none of the fantasy football sites have his picture yet. He’s the St. Louis Rams rookie tight end, and he was a force in the preseason, especially around the end zone.
Josh McDaniels should use him just as the Patriot’s use their tight ends, and with few reliable pass catchers on the roster, the Rams could make him their leading receiver. If Sam Bradford takes the next step this season, it will be because of Lance Kendricks.
Best of all, he’s going undrafted in most leagues. Feel free to pick him up as a TE2 or just as a last-round sleeper. If the bet doesn’t pay off, he won’t cost you much. But I have a feeling it will.
Here are a few you won’t see getting drafted often, but I’m a fan…
The Colts newly named No. 2 running back could be a huge factor if Addai is injured this season — and possibly even if he’s not if Peyton Manning’s injury forces the Colts to lean on the running game. He’s become the favorite over Donald Brown and could vulture a few touchdowns in Indy this season. The Colts did let last season’s vulture, Javarris James, go in their recent roster cuts.
I’m a sucker for Danario. I loved his potential last season when he got a chance to start, and I think he’ll be able to make an impact as a deep threat on a Rams team that just let Donnie Avery walk. He would only be drafted in the deepest of leagues since he’s not even a starter for the Rams right now, but he’s definitely one I’ll have my eye on.
I still like Jacoby Ford this season, but Moore is his rookie twin. The coaches and team love him, and if he ends up a starter, I could see stashing him for those games the Raiders will open up the passing game. The offense there is, however, supposed to run through Darren McFadden this year. Derek Hagan‘s another to watch in Oakland if he ends up a starter. Hagan has made plays all preseason.
Last year’s preseason darling for the Giants has been quiet this year, but he’s healthy and probable to start in the slot for New York. Eli Manning hasn’t had a good preseason, but if he brings it together (or if there’s an injury to either of the Giants’ starting wideouts), Cruz would definitely be in line for some stellar performances. For now, he’s just one to watch or stash in deeper leagues.
Decker is a big possession guy that made a lot of noise this preseason for the Broncos. Unfortunately, they’re move to a conservative John Fox offense probably means he’s not worth owning…for now.
The NFL makes no sense this year. Call it parity. Call it “le suck.” Call it whatever you want. Several of the teams we thought would be fantasy powerhouses are not (Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots) while many of the teams we wrote off as bad bets for fantasy are putting up good numbers (Browns, Rams, Bills). In the words of Chris Berman, I guess “that’s why the play the games.”
Oh, and it was brutal being a Dallas Cowboys and Texas Longhorns fan this weekend.
Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: 165 yards, 3 TDs, 2 catches for 31 yards, 1 TD vs. Broncos
I guess they replaced McFadden’s hamstring with a bionic leg because he showed no indications of any hamstring injury on Sunday. Michael Bush owners, myself included, have to be disappointed that McFadden chose this year to breakout of his early career slump when Bush was slotted as the starter for Week 1. But McFadden’s clearly come into his elite form as the No. 1 back here.
On the plus side, Bush did an equal helping of carries, but McFadden did more with his early in the game and got the first three rushing scores. McFadden will continue to be a must start while Bush could remain a reliable RB2 with upside if McFadden is injured again this year.
Kenny Britt, WR, Titans: 7 catches for 225 yards, 3 TDs vs. Eagles
So I guess there’s a trend when a player is forced to sit out at least one quarter. Just like Arian Foster, Britt didn’t need four quarters to blow us all away. Clearly, he’s the receiver to own in Tennessee and has finally earned his spot among the top of the fantasy wide receiver class. I don’t know that he’ll have another three-score performance this season, but he could definitely put up WR2 numbers the rest of the way.
As an added bonus, he seems to perform regardless of his quarterback. Both Vince Young and Kerry Collins can make him valuable. Just be on the lookout for any team punishment that comes down on Britt for the bar fight he was involved in last week (and for which he sat out that first quarter on Sunday).
Roddy White, WR, Falcons: 11 catches for 201 yards, 2 TDs vs. Bengals
White was due for a breakout performance, and he had it this week — probably just because I traded him away in a package that got improved my quarterback situation with…Romo. Bah, I lose again.
White will continue to be one of the top receivers in fantasy, even if he doesn’t have another 20+ point week this year.
Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals: 412 yards, 3 TDs vs. Falcons
The Bengals got in a hole early against the Falcons, which forced them to set Palmer lose. While he put up plenty of yards and touchdowns, they still didn’t win.
Since the Bengals only rely on Palmer when they get down by double digits, it’s hard to predict when he’ll have these big games. So it’s probably best if you look elsewhere for your fantasy quarterbacking.
Lee Evans, WR, Bills: 6 catches for 105 yards, 3 TDs vs. Ravens
Old-unfaithful just had a season’s worth of stats in one game. Lee Evans? Really? The Bills somehow pulled a fast one of the Ravens this week, and even though they let Baltimore come roaring right back, the Bills showed they have some fantasy weight to throw around. I guess we should take a chance starting Evans. His fantasy points have been on the rise ever since Fitzpatrick took over as the starting quarterback.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Bills: 373 yards, 4 TDs vs. Ravens
Speaking of Fitzpatrick, his stat line wasn’t too shabby either. He lost the game, but pride…he’s got plenty of that to go around.
Popular opinion seems to think he can’t keep this up. But people said the same thing about Orton earlier in the year, and Orton’s still chugging along despite a disappointing day against the Raiders.
Fitzpatrick could be this year’s Tyler Thigpen, a second-half stud.
Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: 121 yards, 2 TDs, 2 catches for 23 yards vs. Bengals
Turner benefited from Atlanta’s big lead this week against the Bengals, but he’s still not quite the fantasy back you drafted him to be. Feel free to sell if you get a good price after this two score performance.
David Gettis, WR, Panthers: 8 catches for 125 yards, 2 TDs vs. 49ers
Gettis emerged in Week 7 as the best Panthers’ receiver not named Steve Smith. He’ll be on a lot of waiver wires this week, but his big game can largely be attributed to Steve Smith’s time spent on the sidelines dealing with an injury.
Since this was Matt Moore’s first game back as the Carolina starter, you should try to grab Gettis just in case this chemistry develops into true fantasy value.
Cleveland Browns D/ST: 17 points allowed, 4 INTs, 2 TDs (pick 6s) vs. Saints
Well, when you get four picks from Drew Brees, and you return two of them for touchdowns, even the Browns can make it happen.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: 131 yards, 1 TD, 2 catches for 41 yards vs. Packers
In case you didn’t realize he was good…
Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: 4 catches for 54 yards, 2 TDs, 93-yard punt return TD vs. Giants
In a horrible Cowboys performance, Dez Bryant was the lone bright spot. If Kitna continues to look his way, Bryant will make his owners proud in the second half of the season. He should be on a roster in every league, even without Romo around.
This week changed my opinions about a few of the guys I recommended last week (Torain, Benn), and we had some breaking news with Marshawn Lynch’s move to Seattle. I think I’m more excited that all the rumors about Lynch being traded or not being traded will stop.
If you’re looking to fill some empty or useless spots on your roster this week, I also have some nice speculative pickups worth reserving on your roster right now in hopes that they turn into fantasy gold.
Ryan Torain, RB, Washington Redskins
He was on last week’s waiver wire, but I like Torain much better now. I was reluctant to push for Torain last week because Mike Shanahan cannot be trusted when it comes to running backs. But since last week, the Redskins have cut Keiland Williams, the other young back in Washington, and Clinton Portis has injured his hamstring. As long as Portis sits out, Torain is the guy in Washington, and you can feel pretty good about starting him. The Packers aren’t a pushover this week, but the Redskins face the Colts (YES!), Bears (OK, not so good), and the Lions (oh, so nice!) throughout the rest of October.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Another one from last week — don’t forget about Blount just because the Bucs were on bye last week. If your league left him on the wire, go get him now. The Bucs admitted this week that they need to reduce Cadillac Williams’ role and mix in both Blount and preseason all-star Kareem Huggins. According to that report, that split will include using Huggins mostly for passing-down work:
Whereas Blount may be used primarily in short yardage and goal line situations against the Bengals, Huggins’ role is likely to be on third down or to provide an explosive play utilizing his speed.
I still prefer Blount in this RBBC situation because I feel that he has the most long-term potential. Huggins is coming off a hamstring injury, and we’ve seen how other change-of-pace backs have struggled to find a role in this league. But you can hedge your bet on Blount this week by also picking up Kareem Huggins. At this point, it might even be safe to drop Cadillac to pick up both Huggins and Blount. He’s clearly past his prime, and I don’t think he’ll be making the big plays for the Bucs moving forward.
Michael Bush, RB, Oakland Raiders
Both Darren McFadden and depth running back Michael Bennett injured hamstrings this past week. That opens the door wide for preseason darling Michael Bush to return in a big way as he’s recovered from his hand injury. McFadden has been running very well for the Raiders, but his injury history makes it unlikely that they’ll push him to go, even if this hammy injury isn’t as bad. I like his chances to do well during this stretch and win a larger chunk of the carries once McFadden returns to full strength.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo Bills
We’ve heard plenty of rumors about where Lynch would end up or if he would be traded at all. The Bills finally got a deal done today, and they sent Lynch to Seattle for a fourth round pick and a conditional pick. Lynch should complicate things in Seattle, where Justin Forsett was getting most of the work, but the Seahawks did let Julius Jones go, at last. Lynch should be the top dog and, therefore, have the most opportunity out of all the Seahawks’ running backs, but as I said on Twitter, I don’t know how much better this situation is for his fantasy value. The Seahawks’ offensive line is not much better than the Bills’ line, and the quarterback play is only sometimes better in Seattle. At least we know he won’t be thrown back into the RBBC doghouse that he was in and out of in Buffalo. He’s a starting NFL running back once again, and it’s never bad to have a few of those on your fantasy roster.
Want speculative pickups? Sure, I got those…
Max Hall, QB, Arizona Cardinals
I just feel like Max Hall has to be better than Derek Anderson. If nothing else, he gets Larry Fitzgerald to throw to. But Hall is the reason the Cardinals decided to pull the trigger on releasing Matt Leinart, and he outplayed both Leinart and Anderson in the preseason. Why not give him a shot? This could be his time. There are worse speculative pickups at quarterback this week. He could turn into a low-end QB2.
Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams
Lots of love for Sam Bradford around the Interweb this week and a nice profile and prediction at Roto Arcade. But he’s still a rookie, and he’s faced fairly weak opponents. I remember how excited everyone got about Mark Sanchez last year until he fell apart against tougher defenses. So I’ll hold off on endorsing him as anything more than a low-end QB2, even though he does get the Lions this week.
Mike Bell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
If LeSean McCoy can’t go, Mike Bell will get the call, but there are better options out there if you’re looking for something long-term.
Tiquan Underwood, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Mike Thomas has been productive in Mike Sims-Walker’s absence (and by absence, I mean lack of catches), but Underwood is the wide receiver that intrigues me right now. Thomas is likely on many a roster right now. But Underwood was getting some good reviews last season as the understudy to Torry Holt, then with the Jags, and he caught all the important passes on the Jags final drive. Let’s play back those final minutes:
After his big return, Underwood had a pass from David Garrard fall incomplete. On the very next play he caught a 6-yarder, then followed with a 22-yard 3rd-down reception on which he tight-roped the sideline before stepping out at the 41.
Garrard’s next pass was almost intercepted, but Underwood stripped the ball and kept the Jags dream alive. Sims-Walker first broke onto the Jags passing scene by catching the third-down balls for Garrard, but it seems that Underwood now has that trust, which would explain why Underwood may be getting snaps instead of Sims-Walker. Consider Underwood a speculative pickup and keep an eye on him and Thomas.
Arrelious Benn, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m backing off Benn, who was in last week’s waiver wire recs, now that the Bucs have come out to say he won’t actually take over the starting job right away post-bye week, but keep your eye on him. He could easily be the starter in a couple of weeks.
More waiver wire happy fun time:
- The FF Geek Blog releases the mighty spreadsheet of pickups for Week 5
- The Hazean gives us some early thoughts on Bradford, Bush, Ward and more
- SI’s waiver wire includes a reminder about Big Ben’s return this week
- FF Toolbox covers all the bases with a list of possible free agents who’ve showed up in the past couple of weeks
- Fantasy Knuckleheads’ waiver wire has some kind words for Mike Thomas
- Football Jabber plugs Kevin Smith and Davone Bess on the waiver wire
- Bruno Boys waiver wire covers a long list of bye week replacements and hot grabs
Austin Collie, WR, Colts: 12 catches for 171 yards, 2 TDs
Believe It: This was not the stat line Reggie Wayne owners wanted to see, but without Pierre Garcon, Peyton Manning locked onto Collie while Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne got most of the attention from the Denver defense. I don’t expect Collie to get this lucky every week, but with two strong games under his belt, he should be owned in all leagues.
Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: 455 passing yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Believe It: The 400+ passing yards countered Rivers’ two interceptions, and that’s the kind of game he’ll have to have as long as the Chargers’ special teams continues to give up two touchdowns each game.
Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens: 262 passing yards, 3 TDs
Believe It (in Matchups): Flacco finally had a good performance, thanks to Anquan Boldin and the Browns’ defense. Now that we know what he’s capable of, we will have to see if he can keep up this level of production. I don’t see him living up to the QB1-hype surrounding him this offseason, but he’ll make a decent matchup play the rest of this year.
Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets: 256 passing yards, 3 TDs
Believe It (in Matchups): Sanchez had another three touchdown performance on Sunday…so is it horrible of me to still not buy it? He’s a promising young quarterback, but he’s still a matchup play in my book. I doubt L.T. would have signed for a team that just planned to become a pass-first offense like the Chargers were without him. If you have Sanchez as a QB2, congrats. He looks good to go in that role or as part of a QB-by-committee.
Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs: 250 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Not Buying It: Cassel showed up big in Week 3 for the Chiefs, but I can’t take it as a sign of things to come just yet. He’s still not a very good quarterback, and his success Sunday might have been more about the complete and utter failure of the 49ers.
Lance Moore, WR, Saints: 6 catches for 149 yards, 2 TDs
Believe It: I immediately regret my decision to wait on picking up Moore after Reggie Bush was injured. Moore should be on the field more often now and showed what he can do with that playing time against the Falcons Sunday. Drew Brees trusts him, and I do, too.
Seattle Seahawks D/ST: 2 INTs, 3 fumble recoveries, 2 TDs
Believe It (At Home): “The 12th Man” lives again in Seattle. They may be garbage on the road, but in Seattle with Leon Washington returning kicks, the Seahawks D/ST appears to be unstoppable. They’ve produced double-digit fantasy points in both their home games thus far this season.
Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns: 144 rushing yards, 1 TD, 7 catches for 36 yards
Believe It: I thought Hillis might make a decent sleeper at the beginning of the season. It looks like he’s woken up now. Keep in mind that this performance was against the Ravens. It’s not like the Browns have a lot going on in their offense to distract a defensive unit like the Ravens, so there’s a chance Hillis could do even more with what he’s given against a lesser defense.
Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: 105 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 catches for 17 yards
Believe It: Even with Michael Bush available, McFadden continued to get the majority of the carries. I still don’t think McFadden keeps this job all year. Injury or Bush’s improving health will force the Raiders to take some of his carries away, but if you have him, you should continue to ride the lightning while you can.
Roy E. Williams, WR, Cowboys: 5 catches for 117 yards, 2 TDs
Not Buying It (Entirely): Williams finally earned that contract he got when he first arrived in Dallas. His second touchdown was late in the game when the Texans D/ST has all but quit, but whether he earned it or not, it’s good to see him producing and to know that the Dallas offense will continue to involve him, especially in a game that mattered so much. He makes for a decent sleeper wide receiver — sad that a starter on a high-powered passing attack is a sleeper, but what are you gonna do? — moving forward since he could keep his role as a starter all year long, even with all the excitement for Dez Bryant.
Brandon Lloyd, WR, Broncos: 6 catches for 169 yards, 1 TD
Not Buying It: The Broncos have said that they will have a different top receiver every week, and it certainly seems that way. The only two I’d rely on are Demaryius Thomas and Jabar Gaffney, and I don’t even trust them a whole lot right now. Lloyd’s nice, but without a cemented role, I just don’t think you can ever start him with confidence.
Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers: 3 catches for 100 yards, 2 TDs
Believe It: Another sleeper awakened this weekend. No more “buy lows” here. Wallace should get even better once Big Ben returns.
Dustin Keller, TE, Jets: 6 catches for 98 yards, 2 TDs
Believe It: Sanchez won’t throw three touchdowns every week, but it’s telling that he threw the first two to Keller. Clearly, he trusts Keller at the goal line. That will go a long way in making Keller a legit fantasy tight end this season.
Not worth mentioning here, but for those of you keeping score at home, the obvious ones for this week were Michael Vick, Anquan Boldin, Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Chris Johnson.
If you played against Arian Foster this week, you lost. This rule applies to Peyton Manning. But what should we expect in Week 2?
Arian Foster: 231 yards, 3 TDs, 1 pass for 7 yards
Believe It – Foster came up big in Week 1 for the owners who jumped on his sleeper bandwagon. This week’s performance even makes drafting him as a No. 2 running back, and not the sleeper he was this offseason, reasonable. Will he repeat a performance like this? Maybe when he faces the Colts’ miserable run defense again in Week 8. But until then, expect him to hold down the RB2 spot on your team just fine.
If you want a Foster on your roster (yeah, I just said that), wait a few weeks. He faces the Redskins and the Cowboys in Week 2 and 3, which should chip away at his epic Week 1 performance and make his owner’s asking price a big more reasonable. The price won’t go down after Foster blows up the Raiders in Week 4, and there are a few more nice matchups for Foster in the chewy center of the Texans schedule.
Matt Forte: 50 yards, 7 passes for 151 yards and 2 TDs
Believe It – Another popular sleeper candidate makes the list this week. We spent all offseason trying to figure out which Bears’ receiver would benefit the most from the new offensive system by Mike Martz. Turns out, it was Forte in Week 1. It was worrisome that he had trouble punching one in on Sunday, but we’ll have to hope that improves. For now, just be glad he’s a big part of the passing game in this mad scientist system. Expect a few more weeks in which he looks like the Forte of old (2008) and makes for a very nice RB2.
David Garrard: 16-of-21 for 170 yards and 3 TDs
Not Buying It – It’s hard to believe that the Jags won through the air with Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield and when facing Champ Bailey and the Broncos…but they did. Garrard did throw primarily to his tight end Marcedes Lewis, who scored on both his touches.
Needless to say, when the Jaguars defense doesn’t get them the prime field position they benefited from against the Broncos, Garrard will have a more difficult time putting up these kinds of numbers, and Garrard doesn’t have many pushover secondaries on his schedule. Fool me twice before I believe in you, Garrard.
Marcedes Lewis: 2 passes for 31 yards and 2 TDs
Not Buying It – It certainly is efficient to score on both your touches in one game, but it doesn’t lead me to believe you’ll do it again. Lewis may have improved this offseason and may now be the red zone target in the Jaguars offense, but that still doesn’t mean his next 31 yards will get him into the end zone. Don’t jump on this bandwagon just yet. Plenty of talent at tight end this year anyway.
Hakeem Nicks: 4 passes for 75 yards and 3 TDs
Believe It – Nicks was supposed to be the guy that replaced Plaxico Burress in the Giants offense. In Week 1, he did. He wasn’t the most targeted receiver on the field (Steve Smith), and he didn’t get the most yardage (Mario Manningham). But he did get all the scores against a passing defense that kept a tight lid on wide receivers last season. Without Kevin Boss (injured Sunday) in the lineup, Nicks is the lone big man in the passing game.
I was a big fan of the Giants’ Steve Smith last season, but this season, all bets are off in the passing game as long as Nicks stays healthy. Eli Manning now has three excellent receivers to target, and Nicks could end up with the most points at the end of the day because he’s the easiest to hit in the end zone. Get him on your roster if you want to play the receiver lottery with the Giants this season. Eli Manning might just show us that last year wasn’t just a fluke.
Austin Collie: 10 passes for 131 yards and a TD
Not Buying It – Collie got most of his yardage on just one play for a touchdown, and even though I expect him to be a regular weapon in the Colts’ offense all season, I can’t fully buy his big Week 1 performance because it won’t be a lock to happen again. He’s a great weekly sub if you have an opening for an occasional WR3, but don’t rush out to grab him. You’ll be taking a chance every time you start him.
Darren McFadden: 95 yards, 6 passes for 55 yards and a TD
Not Buying It (Long-term) – Even a blind squirrel finds the end zone every now and then. McFadden had free reign in the running game this week against the Titans with Michael Bush still recovering from surgery on his hand, but I don’t expect him to get the majority of carries once Bush is back to full healthy. He does have a promising matchup against the Rams in Week 2, but as Bush works his way back on the field, McFadden is likely to work his way out of your heart. If his current owner is willing to sell him cheap, take that price and see what you can get out of him. But I think the better gamble is to “buy low” on Michael Bush while McFadden is getting all the attention.
Michael Vick: 16-for-24 for 175 yards and a TD, 103 rushing yards
Not Buying It (Long-term) – Whaaaa? Now that’s not a name you expected to see on the top of the pile Sunday, but when Kevin Kolb got concussed, Vick showed us why the Eagles coveted him the most this offseason of all the Eagles quarterbacks. He’s a nice security blanket for Kolb until the young guy finds his football legs, and Vick could start in Week 2 if Kolb is not cleared from his concussion.
Watch the latest updates (or follow me on Twitter) to see whether Vick gets his second chance to shine, but as long as Andy Reid insists there is no quarterback controversy, Vick is nothing more than a long-term gamble who might pay off if Kolb suffers another injury or struggles to get back on the field after this concussion. Still, you might entertain the idea of grabbing him if you have some room on your roster and no affiliation with PETA.
Notice a name I didn’t cover among the top scorers this Sunday? Feel free to spark up a conversation in the comments, but note that I assume you’ve heard of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Chris Johnson, Miles Austin, and Chad Ochocinco, which is why they weren’t listed here.
Thanksgiving is a time for giving thanks. You should pause for a moment and think of all the players you have to thank for getting you where your fantasy team is today.
Thank you, Terrell Owens, for going off the week we finally gave up on starting you. Thanks so much for being worthless just long enough for others to drop you.
Thank you, JaMarcus Russell, for making the Raiders so terrible on offense that Darren McFadden couldn’t even be a fantasy stud this season. That draft pick would have been better spent on Julius Jones, and fantasy owners’ greatest memory of him this season will be the week he sat out and let Justin Forsett do it all.
I guess there are the good stories. I’m incredibly thankful for Ray Rice. He’s held it down for my fantasy team through the thick of the season, and he came at a bargain rate in the draft.
I also have to thank Miles Austin, who came off the waiver wire just in time to become a fantasy gold mine for me. He’s my WR3. Do you realize how great it feels to have Miles Austin as a lottery play every week at WR3? I hope you do.
But enough about my thanks. It’s your turn to give thanks. Maybe we should all send our fantasy players real thank you cards this Christmas, and not those cut-out-of-magazine, stalker cards we normally send to threaten them after they kill our chances at a playoff run, the real kind. The kind of cards that show we care.
No, you’re right. They wouldn’t be into that. Besides, cutting letters out of magazines is way more fun.
Now before you go off to bicker at relatives you may only see once this year and poke at mystery casseroles, it’s time to set your lineups.
Hot Hands Starts of the Week
Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs vs. Chargers: I’ll admit that Jamaal Charles was not my favorite person when he was a Longhorn. He had some ball-security issues, and he never seemed to be able to get those yards when it counts. Lucky for him, he went to a team where the yards never really count, and he’s doing well. Woohoo for him.
This week, he faces the San Diego Chargers, who still, if you remember correctly, don’t really have strength at nose tackle after losing their best to injury at the beginning of the season. Considering that Charles is basically half the Chiefs offense alongside Chris Chambers now that Dwayne Bowe is a no-Bowe due to illegal Slimfast, I could see him doing just enough to put the points on the board that you need this week. Pencil him in as a starter if you need him to make plays.
Joseph Addai, RB, Colts vs. Texans: I’ve been benching Addai occasionally for a better matchup in recent weeks, and every time I do it, he makes me pay. It’s like he hates me. Maybe he didn’t get my Christmas card last year?
No worries. Against the Texans, he’s back on my list. I like his chances at getting at least one, if not two, touchdowns since the Colts seem ready and able to get him in the red zone each week.
Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals vs. Browns: Here’s to hoping that Matthew Stafford’s five-touchdown performance against the Browns reminds Carson Palmer what it’s like to be young with two good knees again. Palmer’s got that surgical repaired one now, but I’m pretty sure it’s good enough to do some damage against the Browns.
Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers vs. Jags: He finally scored his first NFL touchdown last week against Green Bay. This week brings the Jaguars secondary to San Francisco, and I could see Crabtree doubling up quickly. The Jaguars have allowed the second most fantasy points to wide receivers, behind only the Titans, who have stepped their game up sine Cortland Finnegan’s return.
Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers vs. Lions: Mostly as a brief reminder that you should start every player wearing green in this one. The Lions let the Browns offense go nuts on them last week, and the Packers are looking for another offensive blowout to build some confidence for a playoff push. The Packers will make the Lions their turkeys.
Cold Shoulders Sits of the Week
Steve Smith, WR, Panthers vs. Jets: He’s getting the Darrelle Revis treatment (running out of catchy names for Revis’ effect on wide receivers), and unlike Randy Moss, I’m not sure you can count on Smith to score to compensate for his lack of yardage. Start him only if you must.
Jay Cutler, QB, Bears vs. Vikings: While I like Devin Hester and Greg Olsen this week, it’s hard to bet on Cutler making all the right plays given his recent struggles. Interceptions will prevent him from capitalizing on what could have been a big fantasy day.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers vs. Ravens: Baltimore will take a special interest in shutting down Mendenhall and the run game, and putting the game into the hands of a slightly woozy Big Ben. I don’t know that this game is going to be very pretty.
Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys vs. Raiders: He hasn’t been nearly as effective this season. I expect him to play through his injury, but I don’t like his chances to even equal his normal production this season unless turkey has some special regenerative powers.
Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals: Beanie’s building momentum down the stretch, but it slows here. Tim Hightower will benefit from a lot of checkdown passes against the Titans, but Beanie just isn’t getting those yet. I expect a quiet night. Save him for those lovely playoff matchups.
Snooze-Button Sleeper Pick of the Week
Alex Smith, QB, 49ers vs. Jags: He’s dropped off the radar a bit since he first took over the starting job in San Francisco, but Smith has a great chance to blow people away against the Jags. I expect Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree to get open early and often. Smith will capitalize if you’re current starter has a dirty matchup this week.
Song to Ease Your Pain While Setting Lineups
Iron Maiden – Pilgrim
It’s the most fitting song of the season. I’m putting my belt around my hat as we speak. We all know there’s no reason for belts on pants today of all days.
Good luck to you all and Happy Turkey Day.