How good will Pat White be?

Now that that the 2009 NFL Draft has come to and end and Mel Kiper Jr.’s hair has been safely removed and returned to its storage locker in Guantanamo Bay, the fantasy football world has to slot, rank and file the rookies of 2009 based on their expected fantasy impact.

But when it comes to classifying Pat White, he just doesn’t fit.

White was one of the most talented rushing quarterbacks college football has ever seen, and he holds the NCAA record for career rushing yards by a quarterback with 4,385 yards.

All eyes are on White to takeover the Ronnie Brown role in the Dolphins’ Wildcat formation. A gimmick play that turned into an offense against the New England Patriots last season, the Wildcat has its doubters heading into 2009. With an entire offseason to game against it, defenses should be able to stop most of the single-wing offenses they’ll see this year.

Would Bill Parcells, proving himself as a master of rebuilding franchises, draft Pat White as high as he did just to have White star in his Wildcat? I don’t think so. And neither do many of the draft analysts out there.

Along with his rushing records, White was also a pretty good all-around quarterback. His record as West Virginia’s starter was 34-8, the best of any WVU quarterback and more victories than all but five quarterbacks ever to play in the NCAA. He is the only quarterback to win four bowl games as a starter in Football Bowl Subdivision history, and he joins an elite club in NCAA history as one of eight athletes to rush for 200 yards and pass for 200 yards in a single game.

Determined to play at quarterback at the pro level, White almost refused to run any sort of wide receiver drills before the draft. He caved only once and then never did it again. Apparently, teams didn’t need to be convinced since many still had him ranked highly on their draft boards.

While Pat White may be listed on the roster as a wide receiver in his first season and see some time in the slot, he might just have a shot at the starting gig in Miami. He was the MVP of the 2009 Senior Bowl at that position after all. Chad Henne, be warned.

For dynasty and keeper leagues, ranking Pat White is a real problem. Is he a gimmick player like Devin Hester before Hester became a starting receiver, a player who never lives up to his role as a full-time fantasy starter? Or is he the quarterback of the future in Miami and someone who can generate points immediately as a slot receiver?

At this point, we don’t even know what position he’ll play, but his role should become clear after his rookie workouts this weekend, closed to the public. It’s turning into a big story and intel should be plentiful out of Miami.

Where do we rank Pat White? How big will he be in 2009 and beyond? Let the debate begin. Drop your take in the discussion thread below.

Six Well-Received Dynasty Wide Receivers for 2009 Sleepers and Keepers

We started our dynasty talk with a look at the quarterbacks on benches you may have forgotten as the NFL draft approaches, but now it’s time to refresh your memory about a few receivers that could be valuable for keeper leagues and dynasty leagues. Some even have a shot at fantasy stardom in 2009.

Demetrius Williams – Baltimore Ravens
Despite his flashes as a playmaker since joining the Ravens in 2006, Demetrius Williams hasn’t stayed healthy enough to earn his way out of the slot receiver role in Baltimore. Just as he emerged in 2009 with a 70-yard touchdown grab against the Raiders, Williams had to be shut down for surgery on a bone spur that had limited him all season. The Ravens need to get younger — and better — targets for Joe Flacco, and Williams could be the guy to stretch the field for Flacco in 2009 even if Baltimore addresses the position in the draft.

Lavelle Hawkins – Tennessee Titans
Hawkins was supposed to be the answer to Tennessee fans’ prayers when he was drafted last season even though he wasn’t a first-round receiver selection as many had hoped. Though he outshined college teammate DeSean Jackson in the stats department during his last season at California, he spent his rookie season in the shadows while Jackson played his way into a starting role with the Eagles. To his credit, Hawkins struggled to master the Titan’s playbook with all the distractions and challenges of being a rookie in the NFL. In his second season, he’d prefer that his teammates hold the mayo. With Justin McCareins now a free agent, Hawkins could bring a much-needed infusion of young talent to the passing game for Tennessee opposite newly acquired Nate Washington or Justin Gage.

Earl Bennett – Chicago Bears
Much like Hawkins, many Chicago fans jumped aboard the Bennett train expecting him to contribute early and often in a season where Chicago had no receivers to brag about on their starting roster. Bennett must have missed the memo. In 2009, he finds himself in a very intriguing situation with his former college quarterback, Jay Cutler, in town. Cutler could easily make his favorite target from Vandy into a standout in this offense, so watch for Bennett to find his way into the third receiver role or even the No. 2 spot beside Devin Hester if he can make the jump with this offense.

Mario Manningham – New York Giants
As disappointing as his entrance to the NFL was, Manningham has done a whole lot of nothing on the Giants roster so far. The release of Plaxico Burress and departure of Amani Toomer this offseason will give each of the Giants’ young receivers a chance to climb the depth chart. With Steve Smith quickly becoming Eli Manning’s most trusted target, the Giants would love to see Manningham prove his draft stock and push Domenik Hixon, the No. 1 receiver replacement-of-the-moment. Maybe he can defy that 6 on the Wonderlic and grasp the playbook a little sooner than expected.

Davone Bess – Miami Dolphins
His troubled past in college at Oregon State didn’t stop Hawaii recruiters from picking up on Bess’ talents, and despite going undrafted, he still made the Dolphins roster in 2008. When Greg Camarillo went down with an injury, Bess filled his role as Chad Pennington’s most reliable wide receiver, and Bess finished the season with more receptions than all but two rookies, Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson. With Camarillo returning from his injury, Bess may find himself back in the slot receiver role, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Pennington looked Bess’ way a little more often in 2009.

Mike Walker – Jacksonville Jaguars
While Matt Jones caught most of the nose candy praise and passes in 2008, David Garrard showed that he had a lot of faith in Mike Walker by looking to him to make a big play when they needed it. If Walker can stay healthy in 2009, he might be a big factor now that Jones and Jerry Porter are out of town. His only major competition for the most looks in Jacksonville is an aging Torry Holt unless the Jaguars take a receiver early in the draft.

And if crazy things happen…

Brad Smith / David Clowney – New York Jets
Without Laveranues Coles, the Jets have a hole opposite Jerricho Cotchery. Chansi Stuckey appears to be at the top of the depth chart, but Brad Smith and David Clowney are two of the lesser-known and possibly more promising wide receivers in the Jets’ arsenal. Smith has talents as both a quarterback and receiver, and Clowney sat out most of 2008 with a broken collarbone after blowing up in the preseason. If either takes hold of No. 2 spot or slot position for whichever quarterback steps into the pocket for the Jets, they stand a chance of becoming a household name. Clowney, in my opinion, is currently the more intriguing of the two.

Early Doucet – Arizona Cardinals
It would take an Anquan Boldin trade for Doucet to become relevant, but the coaching staff praised him and his ability after drafting him just last year. Even though Steve Breaston is ahead of him on the depth chart, it’s a proven fact that the Cardinals passing game produces numbers for everyone who gets involved. Watch for Doucet to earn his spot as the No. 3 receiver if any draft-day deals move Boldin from the sunny desert of Arizona.

Steve Johnson – Buffalo Bills
Unfortunately for Steve, who looked promising in the short time he played near the end of 2008, the Terrell Owens signing in Buffalo limits his potential for at least the 2009 season. Second-round selection James Hardy still sits ahead of him on the Bills’ depth chart, and Johnson will be lucky to lock down the fifth receiver spot behind Lee Evans, Owens, Josh Reed and Hardy if Roscoe Parrish stays in Buffalo. He’s still worth keeping an eye on, but it would take some roster moves for Johnson to make an impact anytime soon.

Jay Cutler traded to Chicago Bears for Neckbeard. Set your Broncos free.

Jay Cutler is now on his way to The Windy City. For first-round picks in both 2009 and 2010, a third-round pick in 2009 and Kyle Orton — founder and president of the Neckbeard for Men Club, which just so happens to be moving its headquarters to Denver this summer — the Chicago Bears have acquired a Pro Bowl quarterback and an additional fifth-round pick in 2009.

Da Bears

While it’s certainly better than Detroit might have been for the promising young quarterback, this trade leaves Cutler’s status a little iffy. Other than Greg Olsen and the project that is Devin Hester, the Bears don’t offer a lot of talented receivers up as targets. Without Marty Booker, it’s hard to even rely on guys like Rashied Davis for a good circus catch.

Luckily, Jay Cutler’s arm happens to be bionic and stronger than three of John Elway’s arms acting in sync. It’s hard to doubt that he can make something out of the Bears with his arm and his legs, and he’s sure to bring the passing game up a notch across the board — lucky you, Hester and Olsen owners.

Matt Forte could certainly use a boost in the passing game to take the pressure off of him out of the box, but he could fade a bit in his production now that the Bears aren’t constantly feeding him the ball. This new offense is one you’ll want to watch come preseason because there’s no telling what Chicago will do now that they have a quarterback — and not a Rex Grossman. I’d still like Forte as a borderline RB1/RB2, but that could change.

Busted Broncos

As I tweeted earlier — excuse me — you can mark your calendars today as the day the Broncos started a downward slide. Brandon Marshall could soon potentially face another suspension for his continued off-the-field issues; Josh McDaniels is going to try to establish a new offense while running a season of The Apprentice to decide who’s going to carry the ball between J.J. Arrington, Correll Buckhalter, Peyton Hillis, LaMont Jordan, Ryan Torain, Selvin Young and Andre Hall; but at least they have a savior in their new quarterback, Kyle Orton…

Orton is an extreme downgrade. Despite his phenom run last year — during which, he was keeping pace with Peyton Manning in the fantasy points department — he’s an inconsistent signal caller. He limits what the Broncos can do through the air and takes Brandon Marshall down a notch whenever Marshall does get a chance to return to the field.

Eddie Royal, sadly, might drop off the radar entirely unless Marshall is out for a prolonged period of time. It would seem that, at least in the short term, Josh McDaniels is content running the ball with 67 different running backs, so it’s hard to rely on him to keep the passing game up to the level it was at last season. Don’t even start looking to the tight ends. Tony Scheffler could be out of Denver sooner rather than later, and then it all goes to this very scary place where Daniel Graham might be the only one of the field.

In short, maybe it’s time you let your Broncos go. Orton’s worth a chance in 2009 just because of the talent around him — and his relative bargain value as a quarterback. Marshall can’t be passed on even with his potential problems, which could make him a value pick in 2009 anyway. But there’s no telling which running back emerges as the best option, and Eddie Royal could be decent or completely invisible in 2009.

Mark your calendars and thank Josh McDaniels. Today, the Broncos blew apart their fantasy goodness…just when I thought they had so much promise. Does anyone feel good about this new Broncos team?

Mark Schlereth, please explain how this happened.

On the Wire: Week 16 Pickups and Playoff One-offs

If you’re still playing fantasy football, your roster should be locked up pretty tight. Why are you even reading this article?

For the sake of those of you with injuries and/or in need of a weekly sub to blow away your heavily favored opponent, I guess I can still give you a few names that might be out there on your wire if your league is just very, very silly.

Pierre Thomas, RB New Orleans Saints
Obviously, he should be owned in all leagues by now, especially after posting his high score last week, but he’s worth mentioning since he plays the Lions this week.

Make sure he’s not sitting on the wire when you go into your games tonight. Do it for me, okay? For me.

Cadillac Williams, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
He’s gotten back on the wagon these last few weeks and done some damage. Can you trust him in the playoffs? I think he might be worth a spot fill here or there when you need him, but it’s very likely you can do better, Mr. Playoffs. Cadillac benefits a bit because he plays two teams who are done for the season these next two weeks, the Chargers and the Raiders.

If you’re in the kind of keeper league that only requires you to rank waiver wire grabs as a 10th round or later selections, it might also be a sneaky play to snag Caddy in anticipation of his role next season. Fully healthy, Cadillac should reclaim the starting role from Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn.

DeShaun Foster, RB San Francisco 49ers
Foster is only a factor if Frank Gore sits again this week, but how nice would it be to have a running back going against the Rams?

He might trump your starter if you have someone like Marion Barber, banged up and facing a rough Baltimore defense.

Dominic Rhodes, RB Indianapolis Colts
I don’t love him this week with Joseph Addai likely to return against Jacksonville on Thursday night, but he’s definitely the preferred back for the scoring. The Colts, they like the scoring.

P.J. Pope, RB Denver Broncos
Shanahan strikes again! [Evil laugh] I wouldn’t want to touch Pope this week, but you might pick him up just for the sake of preventing your opponent taking a chance with him … and beating you.

Pope does play the Bills, who are pretty much done for the season now, and almost any back can productive when defenses have to focus on stopping Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Jay Cutler.

Note that since I didn’t mention him, Tatum Bell will dominate as the leading rusher on Sunday while Pope gets only a handful of carries — such is the Broncos backfield.

Tarvaris Jackson, QB Minnesota Vikings
So here’s the deal. Tarvaris came back on the scene last week as a suspect play against the Cardinals and absolutely blew the game out of the water with four touchdowns. Not a lot of yardage on the day, but really, you should quit complaining.

This week, the little project quarterback that could faces the Atlanta Falcons, who are fighting to stay in the playoff hunt. Even with a weak secondary, the Falcons are probably going to step up to stop Jackson, but there’s always a chance…

Matt Schaub, QB Houston Texans
For a good while there, he was hurt. How many 300-yard games must he have before you take notice?

If Schaub is on your waiver wire, you need to have him on a roster. He gets the Raiders this week with the potential for rain, but if the skies are clear, Schaub could fill them with passes just as Matt Cassel did in Week 15 against the Raiders.

Shaun Hill, QB San Francisco 49ers
Second only to picking up a running back that plays the Rams is grabbing yourself a quarterback that plays the Rams.

Devin Hester, WR Chicago Bears
Did everyone in your league give up on him during that stretch of worthlessness? He’s been pretty productive lately since Kyle Orton’s return, so I wouldn’t call you names for playing him this week against the Packers. No, really, I promise.

He might be better than the guy you’ve been starting at WR2 or WR3 like an unreliable Lee Evans.

Deion Branch, WR Seattle Seahawks
Branch is another pickup/drop guy that’s been on and off teams all season.

If you find him “off” and in the free agent pool at the moment, you might want to at least plant him on a roster this weekend so that he doesn’t help your opponent’s team with some yardage or, heaven forbid, a score against the Jets.

For all other issues of replacement or swaps, ask and ye shall receive (in the comments).

Foolish Thoughts on Week 13: Tell me when it’s over

What was happened to the NFL this weekend? After the miserable Tennessee Titans clobbering of the Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys butchering of the Seattle Seahawks, I thought at leas the Thursday Night Football matchup of the Philadelphia Eagles and the Arizona Cardinals might be mildly interesting.

Of course, I thought it would be mildly interesting because the Eagles would struggle along and try to put up a fight against the Cardinal’s powerful offense. I didn’t know that Brian Westbrook was going to blow up for four touchdowns and lead the Eagles to a stomping of the NFC West sensation. Taste the burn, Arizona. You are what we thought you were.

In reality, that game was all about Donovan McNabb. He made his statement, and all he really wanted was for Brian Westbrook to hold him.

That pretty much sealed the deal for a boring weekend. The most we could have hoped for was a decent game with Atlanta facing the Chargers and the Packers facing the Panthers. Eh, not so much.

DeAngelo Williams should be buying Steve Smith’s lunch all week for setting him up on those two easy scores. Would it have been so hard to get another yard or two, Steve? Really?

As for the Falcons-Chargers, well, if the Falcons were a more mature team, the score would never have been as close as it was. Rookie mistakes left the door open, and sadly, the Chargers are no longer a team that can capitalize on every mistake.

The fireman down below are inflating the big bouncy pad for Rivers inevitable fall from fantasy grace. It’s too bad they couldn’t get there before LaDainian Tomlinson took his fateful dive. Rivers was my pick to fall off in the second half of the season, so even though it took a while for it to happen, I can’t say I’m surprised to see Phil lose that fantasy glow he had around him. I just can’t trust a man that still trash talks like a seven-year-old child.

I toyed with myself the Vikings-Bears game could be another unforeseen shootout. Wouldn’t that just save the day on Sunday? Forte versus Peterson?

Instead, it looked more like Bernard Berrian versus Devin Hester. These long plays through the air for the Bears and the Vikings are just out of character. It’s good to see that the Vikings can score points since they might not have such a stout defense for the remainder of the regular season.

I guess there was one interesting game. Shanny’s Broncos took out the Jets and quieted the resurgence of the Brett Favre hype.

How terrible is your defense when they just start assuming players are down without hearing the whistle blow? You have to actually tackle the guy, Broncos, not just assume that the other guy’s got ‘em. Terrible.

That was just a sloppy game overall, and not all of it was because of the weather. Both the Broncos and the Jets were giving up big plays — Broncos on the ground, Jets through the air. Suddenly, I don’t think I care who the better team is between the Jets and the Patriots.

Monday Night Football, save me. Wait, Houston Texans versus Jacksonville Jaguars? Oh noes.

Coolest play of the game: Garrard passing to himself. He might actually be the best receiver on the team — those quick hands. Just awesome.

So, now that the Jags are done for the season, please sub them in for one of the Lions’ last three opponents so that the Lions won’t go 0-16 and/or so we can watch (or not watch) the most miserable game of football in the history of the sport.

It would really take away from the game if the Lions DO finally hit the 0-16 mark. If they achieve it, then we won’t be able to hold it over their heads next season … or the season after. And how will we stop the Cincinnati Bengals from doing it if it’s been done?

The Jags were nice enough to give the Bengals a win, so why can’t they do it for the Lions, too? Come on, Goodell. Make it happen — just this once. Afterwards, you can go back to testing urine for traces of water pills.

I’m so glad this weekend is over. I would have rather watched this on loop for a day. I don’t understand what’s going on in there, and I can’t decide which is better: stache or no stache? All I know is that I cannot look away.

Is it Week 14 yet?

On gun control laws
The one thing that I cannot get over from this weekend is how stupid Plaxico Burress was to strap a loaded, unlicensed gun to his thigh. Didn’t you see what happened to Adam Jones? And that gun wasn’t even in his hands.

The gun goes with the entourage, not taped to your thigh, Plax. You have to have security or a good jail-comfortable friend to take that kind of a fall for you. It’s bad policy to pack one yourself, and you pay the price every time you start grinding in some club. Your history of catching is not going to go over well for you in jail.

Plaxico is probably on his way out of New York after this season, but that’s no big deal. I like Domenik Hixon, and the Giants have a nice group of young wide receivers to bring into the mix. I hope Plax ends up on the Raiders.

On fashion
Jack Del Rio may be classy, but I think he needs a “Battle Red” power tie if he’s going to get the Jags back in shape. Exhibit A. Now that’s classy AND scary powerful.

On failing to make your fantasy football playoffs
If you didn’t make the playoffs, you don’t have to stop reading Fantasy Football Fools. We’ll let you stick around. In fact, we encourage it.

But, in order for us to do the most good for you, you should subscribe to our updates for zero dollars, also known as FREE.

By subscribing, you’ll get every single one of our soberly-written posts about fantasy football throughout the offseason through RSS or email, and you’ll be in much better shape next season. Besides, how can you pass up our foolish musings?

If you, at any point in the season, owned Cedric Benson, David Carr, Shaun Alexander or Ahman Green, subscribe. No questions asked. I will admit that I know how you feel.

On tardiness and schedule deviations
If you follow me on Twitter, you know I’ve been doing many and several things the last two weeks. Now that Fantasy Football Fools headquarters — not dissimilar to The Batcave — has been moved to its new home and all other matters of family and health seem to be taken care of — not in the horse heads in beds way … promise — our schedule should be back in line for the rest of playoffs. Stay tuned.

On incredibly well-planned finishes
I think we’re good here. Same time next week?

A Fool and His Money in Week 13

While your fantasy season might be coming to an end, there are still plenty of spreads to be picked. Here’s how it’s going down this week…

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions

Fools Take: Titans (-10.5) over LIONS

Nick says: How about a round of applause for the Tennessee Titans? Nobody expected an undefeated season, and it was a good run while it lasted. I made more money than I lost on the Titans, and I thank them for that. I’m rooting for them the rest of the way, even if I won’t be betting on them anymore. Hopefully, they get back to running the ball this week.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

Fools Take: Seahawks (+13) over COWBOYS

Nick says: Yes, I’m a hater. I don’t expect the Seahawks to win, but I’m hoping they keep it within two touchdowns.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles

Fools Take: Cardinals (+3) over EAGLES $

Nick says: Let me get this right. The Eagles play horribly, bench their starter, give him back his job and are now favored this week against a playoff bound team? Do people really believe in McNabb that much? I don’t think so. I’ll be taking the Cardinals straight up in this one.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Fools Take: Ravens (-7) over BENGALS $

Nick says: I’m really enjoying the Ravens right now. They are destroying the spreads. Their defense doesn’t let opposing teams score garbage points in garbage time.

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns

Fools Take: Colts (-5) over BROWNS

Nick says: I refuse to ever pick the Browns. That doesn’t really matter here since common sense would tell you that the Colts are going to spank the Browns.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins

Fools Take: Giants (-3.5) over REDSKINS $

Nick says: Another no-brainer. The Redskins have been struggling as of late and the Giants are just steamrolling their way through the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills

Fools Take: BILLS (-7) over 49ers

Nick says: Did the Bills find the spark they needed last week? Maybe. This spread is more of a pick against the 49ers than a pick for the Bills. The 49ers had a chance to show me something last week, and instead, they got exposed.

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers

Fools Take: Falcons (+5) over CHARGERS

Nick says: I have officially let go of my expectations for the Chargers. They are no longer elite and don’t deserve to go to the playoffs. The Falcons keep getting it done. They are at least worthy of a pick with some points.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

Fools Take: RAIDERS (-3) over Chiefs

Nick says: No one cares about this game. I’m sorry I wasted your time even writing this line down.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Fools Take: Steelers (+1.5) over PATRIOTS

Nick says: I like the new Patriots, but I’m not ready to put them as favorites against a proven contender this year.

New York Jets at Denver Broncos

Fools Take: JETS (-8) over Broncos $

Nick says: I hate the Broncos. They just keep sucking right when you think they might be turning a corner. It’s tough not to love the Jets at home in this one after they dismantled the Titans and after the Raiders dismantled the Broncos.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

Fools Take: VIKINGS (-3.5) over Bears

Nick says: I don’t know what it is, but the Bears seem to have lost that midseason spark they had going. Orton’s injury ruined the rhythm and momentum of the offense. Has anyone seen Devin Hester this season?

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Fools Take: TEXANS (-3.5) over Jaguars

Nick says: Possibly the worst Monday night game of the year. I’m going with the Texans, but there is a sincere note of apathy in this pick. The Texans were at least fun to watch when Matt Schaub was running the show. Sage just doesn’t get it going for me. Ed. Note: It’s the helicopter, isn’t it?

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fools Take: BUCS (-3.5) over Saints

Nick says: The Saints had a good game against the Packers, but I don’t expect it to carry over to an away game. The Bucs need to win this type of game to prove they are a legit contender in the NFC.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

Fools Take: PACKERS (-3) over Panthers

Nick says: Jake Delhomme has struggled some this year. The Packers secondary is one of the best in the league, and I expect them to rebound from their poor performance in New Orleans last week. I think this game comes down to Delhomme versus Aaron Rodgers, and I like Rodgers at home.

Miami Dolphins at St. Louis Rams

Fools Take: Dolphins (-8) over RAMS

Nick says: I was hoping this line would be a touchdown or less, but I still like Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to run wild in this game. The Rams have done nothing this season outside of two mysterious weeks.

Last Week:

Nick: 9-6-1

Current Standings after Week 12:

Nick: 90-79-3
Nick’s Locks: 5-3

On the Wire: Waiver Wire Hardships from Week 6

As I listened to the end of the Texas-OU game while hunched over in a car on my way to a wedding this weekend, two things occurred to me: 1) people REALLY shouldn’t get married the same weekend as the Texas-OU game and 2) there could be a large amount of rookie quarterbacks coming into the NFL next year.

This season has been brutal to quarterbacks. It’s like they are the running backs this season — drafted highly by fantasy owners but very prone to season-ending injuries because of the abuse they take. Those fantasy footballers who drafted a quarterback high this year more often than not paid the price — yes, I’m looking at you Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Derek Anderson. At least we can all hate the guy that drafted Drew Brees.

On a brighter note, I thought I was going to be very clever in one of my pay leagues this past week in picking up Fred Taylor against a weak Denver run defense. Someone had dropped Taylor because of bye week issues. It was the perfect crime, but we all saw how that turned out.

Fine, waiver wire. You won that one by throwing me a curveball injury, tricky mistress, but there are a few “hardships” to be had this week.

From now until the end of the season, unfortunately, the best waiver wire grabs are starting to stem from surprise injuries, not exceptional or surprising play. It may pain you to pick some of these guys up, but it’s how you play the game. Players put in the same role/situation have equal opportunity to succeed — just look at Correll Buckhalter.

Worth Claiming

Jeff Garcia, QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — He’s a valid spot start his week against Seattle and faces a Dallas secondary in Week 8 that should be starting two rookie corners. It’s only Kansas City in Week 9. Even for Garcia, those could be productive days with the exception of Dallas if the Cowboys come to play. If he can produce more than 10 points in those outings, he might be worth holding onto for short while. Hear that, Hasselbeck/Romo owners? If you wait out his bye and the Vikings, his next two decent starts come against the Lions and the Saints.

Brad Johnson, QB Dallas Cowboys — If Romo decides not to go it the Brett Favre way — hoorah — Johnson gets the call to manage the Dallas offense. With the addition of Roy Williams, he has a good chance to be successful as a pocket-passing statue. Sadly, after a warm, cuddly start against St. Louis this week, he faces Tampa Bay and the Giants. Romo owners, pad your roster with Johnson if you can, but you’ll probably want to look elsewhere after this week. Unless he dominates Week 7, there should be better options out there on your waiver wire.

Derek Anderson, QB Cleveland Browns — Was someone silly enough to drop a player like Anderson after his slow, pathetic start to the season? He had a coming out party in Week 6 — and no, Nick, I’m not talking about Brady Quinn. Anderson has five more games on his schedule that look like he could put up the gaudy numbers of last year, and if he can maintain his play against tough opponents with Braylon Edwards, you’re set. For now, you’ll want to bring him into a QB committee so that you don’t have to start him every week.

Sammy Morris, RB New England Patriots — After all the carnage in the backfield in New England, Morris is “the guy” again for the moment. He might be bouncing around the wire with several other Patriot RBs since Belichick went all Shanahan this year, but he’s worth putting on a roster for his game against Denver, St. Louis and Indy these next three weeks. We all know it’s in Belichick’s best interest to run the ball rather than let Cassel attempt to throw — oops, I mean, underthrow. At least he’s not Dan Orlovsky.

Dominic Rhodes, RB Indianapolis Colts — Rhodes resumed his duty as the Colts RB in Week 6 after Addai injured his hamstring. Hamstrings don’t just go away, so expect Rhodes to get a start or at least get an increased workload in Week 7. The Packers have failed to stop the run lately, so he makes a good play here. If Rhodes can justify holding onto the workload as the season continues, he could be a nice guy to have around come playoffs — Bengals (W14), Lions (W15) and Jags (W16).

Ryan Torain, RB Denver Broncos — If there was ever a time to take him, it’s probably now. Yes, you’re risking it. No, we have no idea if Shanahan will use him. Yes, he did talk a lot about him in the preseason, but no, I don’t trust a man that looks like an outlaw from a Clint Eastwood movie.

Devin Hester, WR Chicago Bears – Hester has proven himself to be a legitimate receiver in the Bears offense. With his potential to get you a returning score as well, there’s a lot of upside to be had in starting him each week. Vikings may limit him before the Bears’ bye, but in Week 9, they get the Lions again.

Kevin Curtis, WR Philadelphia Eagles — He didn’t get back on the field this week, but he’s close. With DeSean Jackson there to take some heat of him in the passing game, he could retake his role as the No. 1 option in Philly. Make sure he’s on your roster if no one has him on their bench yet.

Marcedes Lewis, TE Jacksonville Jaguars — He scores touchdowns with Garrard and has one for each of his last two games. If he keeps it up against the Browns, Bengals and Lions, he could be deadly for a stretch here and a stretch in the fantasy playoffs. You could sleep on him a week though considering he is on bye unless someone else in your league will be after him.

Ones to Watch

Tashard Choice, RB Dallas Cowboys — Felix Jones injured his hammy, which leaves Choice as the best “choice” to spell Marion Barber — I know that I am cheesy. Choice could get Jones’ carries for now, but don’t expect the big plays Jones has broken this season.

Ahman Green, RB Houston Texans — Steve Slaton is the guy to have in the Texans backfield, but Green is getting a share of the touches as well. He could share in the fantasy points against Detroit this week and/or carry some value in the Texans’ good running matchups in Weeks 10-14, but he’s more of a deep league option or depth if you own Slaton.

Kenny Watson, RB Cincinnati Bengals — Chris Perry can’t hold onto the ball, and Benson hasn’t done much better. Neither back has done anything to justify or hold a starting job. Watson was the guy to own in the Bengals backfield last year and could return to the lineup after he heals up. Unfortunately, I don’t think you really want to own any Bengals this year, but keep an eye on him or add him if you are looking for potential upside in deeper leagues.

Donnie Avery, WR St. Louis Rams – Avery, the first WR taken in this year’s draft, had a big game for the Rams in Week 6 with four catches for 73 yards. If he remains involved in the offense when Drew Bennett returns from his injury, he might be a key element in improving the Rams’ record in the second half of 2008. The Rams end the season with some nice passing matchups — Seattle in Week 15 and San Fran in Week 16. Still, he’s not worth jumping on except in deeper leagues unless he can keep a hold on the starting job.

Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers — Six catches for 75 yards? A 57-yard bomb? Is this the Vernon Davis that every preseason analyst talks about? It’s unfortunate that it’s probably all a trick. Davis is a huge, athletic talent, but the 49ers just aren’t using him consistently enough to warrant a starting spot on any roster. All that could change if the other tight end in San Fran who had been showing Davis up in several games, Delanie Walker, has to move to fullback to replace the injured Zak Keasey, but unless Davis posts numbers against the Giants this week, I’m not buying.

Miami Dolphins D/ST — The Dolphins defense has quietly been showing signs of life since being thrashed by the Cardinals in Week 2. They are decent against the run, and Joey Porter has had a resurgence of sorts getting to the QB. They have a hard time against big, playmaking wide receivers (like Andre Johnson), but otherwise, they can put up some fantasy points for you. They have sleeper status going into this week against Baltimore, who just got destroyed by the Colts, and a nice playoff schedule with St. Louis and Kansas City in Weeks 15-16.

New Orleans Saints D/ST — The Saints streak of double-digit fantasy performances continue. As long as Brees keeps putting the ball in the air, he forces the opposing teams to take risks that give this defense opportunities to make big plays. They were even able to shut down the run against Adrian Peterson. Keep watching them as they go into a potential rough patch before their bye facing Carolina and San Diego. Their playoff schedule ain’t too shabby — Atlanta, Chicago and Detroit. All those offenses would have to take big risks to compete.

Ignoring

Warrick Dunn, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Just a note here for all of you jumping on Dunn expecting him to be the dominant runner for the Bucs: The reason Dunn had so many yards was because Earnest Graham volunteered to fill in for the injured fullback, thus earning the praise of both Dunn and Jon Gruden. Barring Graham filling in for the fullback on a permanent basis, he’s still going to get half of the carries in Tampa Bay and a lot more praise. Don’t go after Dunn like he’s taking over, okay?

Patrick Cobbs, RB Miami Dolphins — What do you know, another wrinkle in the ‘Wildcat’ offense. I’m not completely blowing off his Week 6 performance, but Cobbs has done absolutely nothing up until now. He might be a worthy gamble play one of these days, but there’s no promise that this ever happens again.

Shaun Alexander, RB Washington Redskins — Woohoo! Alexander’s back, baby! Well, he’s also sitting behind one of the best backs in fantasy right now, Clinton Portis, and he only got a job because Ladell Betts sprained his knee. If it took Alexander this long to get signed by a team, I’m guessing he’s nothing more than a temporary handcuff to Portis. Do what you will, Portis owners.

You should have already picked up:

Michael Pittman, RB Denver Broncos — He had a pretty nice week as the main guy in Denver. Who knows how long that will last with Ryan Torain on the horizon, but at least he gets goal line carries regardless.

Droppables

Laurence Maroney, RB New England Patriots — I’m sorry if you drafted this guy. Even Belichick may have forgotten who he is. Not sure his potential productivity with that many RBs in the mix makes him worth waiting on at this point.

Sage Rosenfels, QB Houston Texans – Schaub’s got this under control, okay? Thanks.

Michael Bush, RB Oakland Raiders — Bush almost got traded before the deadline, which means the Raiders don’t consider him a big part of their offense. As long as Fargas and Darren McFadden stay healthy enough to play, Bush shouldn’t see much action. The Raiders might not even have that much action in the running game if they try to pass the ball more often like they did in Week 6.

On the Wire: Waiver Wire Grabs from Week 5

In 2006, I drafted Clinton Portis as my lead running back. I don’t even remember who my second running back was, but, in the late rounds, I picked myself up a rookie with too many names, Maurice Jones-Drew.

When Jones-Drew blew up with his big rookie season (1300+ yards and 15 TDs), I thought I was going to dominate with the Portis/Jones-Drew tandem until Portis broke his hand in Week 10 and killed my playoff chances. I had no viable replacement for Portis’ consistent point production because I had filled my bench with a few filler wide receivers and running backs that had poor schedules to end the season.

Fantasy owners who are sitting pretty right now have to start building for the playoffs. You want to balance your roster, strengthen your studs if you can by trading up and acquire a bench of players that, if nothing else, will have dominant performances in Weeks 14-16, when it matters most.

The waiver wire is critical from here on out because it can shift the power among the top teams and bring in the depth and talent that you need to win your league. Don’t think that you can become complacent now just because your team is sitting on top or sulking on the bottom.

Last year, in one of my veteran leagues, the playoff contenders were pretty evenly matched heading into the last part of the regular season until a team that was winning with the duo of Terrell Owens and Randy Moss picked up Kurt Warner and Ryan Grant off waivers.

Well, you can guess how that worked out for him. What a lucky jackass smart guy.

Here are a few potential fantasy free agents that could help you do that same in 2008.

Worth Claiming

Bobby Engram, WR Seattle Seahawks
If no one picked him up last week or if your league remains unimpressed by his eight catches for 61 yards against the Giants, make sure you put him on your roster this week. His schedule gets MUCH better, and if Branch is injured, that means even more balls coming his way — and that’s what she said. I prefer Engram to Branch, even when neither of them have foot pain. After Green Bay and the Bucs, Engram will open it up against the 49ers, Eagles, Dolphins, Cardinals…it keeps going from there. He’s just the kind of guy you want on your playoff team as well with matchups against the Rams and Jets in Week 15 and Week 16.

Devin Hester, WR Chicago Bears
Remember experimenting with him as a wide receiver? It’s happening now…and working. Without Brandon Lloyd, Hester is the homerun threat, and Orton is making him dangerous for opposing defenses. Enjoy him while the Bears go through the soft, chewy center of their schedule.

Greg Camarillo, WR Miami Dolphins
Some people just jump out on you when they finally get a touchdown. Pennington won’t open it up down the field that much, but he’s got to start throwing to someone other than his tight ends as he matures in the Dolphin’s offense.  Camarillo has 17 catches through four games, his bye has already passed and he’s got a sick playoff schedule with the 49ers and Kansas City in Weeks 15 and 16. If you currently have Ted Ginn, Jr. on your roster, first of all, slap yourself. Second, pick up Camarillo instead.

Greg Olsen, TE Chicago Bears
Tight ends are a big hit on the waiver wire this week. Olsen is the first one on the list. Other than Marty Booker and his “spider-sense” hands, Olsen is one of the best pass catchers the Bears have on their roster. He’s getting some big plays down the field and has been more productive in Brandon Lloyd’s absence. Matchups like this week against Atlanta shouldn’t hurt his chances to get a second TD either. Orton is targeting him rather than Desmond Clark these days, and as Orton goes, so goes Greg Olsen.

Dustin Keller, TE New York Jets
Brett Favre and Keller connected almost immediately this season, and Favre is throwing out touchdowns like candy in a parade. You want this guy on your roster. Say it with me now: I want this guy on my roster. If you don’t have a top tight end on your roster or Dustin Keller after reading that paragraph…well, then there is no hope for you, buddy. You’ll never improve your tight end situation, quit smoking or hypnotize yourself into losing weight. I give up.

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE Minnesota Vikings
I was hoping I wouldn’t have to mention this guy. His name is just so freaking hard to type. It’s like his parents named him by looking at a QWERTY keyboard and choosing letters that were really far apart. No, really, Shiancoes, I’m on to you. As long as Frerotte is starting, the Vikings will need a red zone target. Otherwise, every defense just stacks the box to keep Adrian Peterson out of the end zone when they are close. Shank-o is a red zone man. He’s got two TDs this season including the TD pass from Chester Taylor this past weekend. Since we’re so big on playoff schedules this week on the wire, how about Lions, Cardinals and Falcons?

Kyle Orton, QB Chicago Bears
If I mentioned two of his best options, I guess that means I have to mention him again…doesn’t it? Orton tied for the top spot at QB in Week 5. In Week 6, he faces Atlanta. It makes me sick to think of him as a fantasy-worthy QB as well, but I’m starting him this week. When is Orton going to get his first endorsement for Gilette or Norelco?

Warrick Dunn, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
He looked better than Earnest Graham in Week 5 against the Broncos. Graham should have had a field day on that defense. I’m worried if I am a Graham owner.

Justin Fargas, RB Oakland Raiders
Back at full health, he’s the starting running back for one of the best rushing offenses in football. McFadden might demand more touches at this point, but Fargas will still get some cred since he had the job first. It’s a rule of the workplace. Haven’t you ever had a steady corporate job with a ladder to nowhere?

Cedric Benson, RB Cincinnati Bengals
As I mentioned previously in my thoughts from Week 5, Chris Perry’s hold on the starting job in Cincy isn’t going to get much weaker than it is right now. Benson will obviously play a larger role in Week 6, but he could take over the reigns completely. I mean, what’s he got to beat? Averaging less three yards per carry and leading the league in fumbles? Even for Benson, that’s doable.

Ones to Watch

Mike Walker, WR Jacksonville Jaguars
Also revealed in my thoughts from Week 5, Walker is one of a handful of sleepers I had on a list to start the season. He hadn’t quite woken up yet and flirted with close to 50 yards in the Houston game, but he came alive against the Steelers with six passes for 107 yards. He’s worthy of putting on a roster at this point in the season. If he turns into a go-to possession and red zone receiver, Walker could become a staple of your starting lineup. He may have gotten a little torn up on Sunday night, so watch the reports before you make a grab. If healthy, I see nothing but upside, but he’s so small time as a Jacksonville WR that you might be able to wait on him.

Kevin Curtis, WR Philadelphia Eagles
I really want to see Kevin Curtis take the field this season, and he could be close to it. McNabb is stalling out a bit as of late, but he was firing away the first two weeks. I’m sure he’d get a boost throwing to Curtis alongside DeSean Jackson and Reggie Brown. Keep an eye on him.

Nate Washington, WR Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington fills a role similar to Devery Henderson on the Saints or Chansi Stuckey on the Jets. He’s the third WR who goes for a lot of big plays. He’s not always hit with lots of passes, but when he gets one, he can take it to the house. Washington has looked more solid than Santonio Holmes over the last several weeks, and he’s not a bad start when the Steelers are going to be passing frequently. Washington had 95 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville this past weekend.

Vince Young, QB Tennessee Titans
It pains me to only be able to list VY as a “one to watch,” but the Titans are on a bye. I know Young isn’t supposed to take back the reigns on the starting job, and more than likely, it won’t happen in Week 7, BUT (I like big buts…) I believe that his return to the starting lineup is inevitable. He’s too talented with too much invested in him for the Titans to pass it off to Kerry Collins. If VY returns and hits his stride in the NFL, he finishes up against the Jets, Lions, Browns and Texans before facing the Steelers in Week 16. In a free agent pool of substitute QBs, VY has the greatest upside. Don’t let that get away from you.

Correll Buckhalter, RB Philadelphia Eagles
He’s a sufficient Westbrook substitute, but just like Splenda, he’s nothing like the real thing. It’s just got that twang that makes you know it’s not the real stuff, you know? I believe Westbrook will go in Week 6 against the 49ers, but if they hold him back until after their Week 7 bye, Buckhalter is the guy you want to fill in for your roster.

Ryan Torain, RB Denver Broncos
Mike Shanahan couldn’t stop raving about Torain before the season started, and then Torain got hurt and missed out on the season up until now. I’m going to start mentioning him as a watch for now, but he’s probably going to jump into the grab-worthy category once he is cleared to practice. Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Shanahan never gave him a single carry after talking so much about him just to make fantasy owners waste a spot on their roster? < — Not a joke.

Maurice Morris, RB Seattle Seahawks
When he comes back from injury, he could challenge Julius Jones for carries or the starting role. That’s not the most valuable starting fantasy RB job in the NFL, but you might seriously be contemplating putting Cedric Benson on your team. Call me a Julius Jones hater, but I just like Morris better. Watch him.

Ahman Green, RB Houston Texans
Old bones is back in football pads. It’s sort of anticlimactic now that he isn’t even catching a whiff of the starting role, but Green is bound to be somewhat productive…until his next injury. He’s worth watching only if you need a bye week fill or if you just really like the Texans. Crickets? No one?

Flukes or Droppables

Hank Baskett, WR Philadelphia Eagles
Reggie Brown has stolen back his starting spot, so Baskett is back on the bench. At least he sort of, maybe, in gossip blog terms dated one of Hugh Hefner’s girlfriends. Say goodbye to Kendra, Hank. Your fifteen minutes seconds are up.

Ray Rice, RB Baltimore Ravens
I still hate LeRon McClain, but he totally sniped Rice’s job from him. Maybe he ate Ray Rice. Has anyone checked? Oh, God.

Andre Hall, RB Denver Broncos
Hall is about to be swallowed up by the Torain train and/or the black hole that is the running back depth chart in Denver. His injury just provides one more reason to let him go.

Chris Perry, RB Cincinnati Bengals
Don’t just ditch him on the side of the road. He’s still a starting running back for a *potentially* high-powered offense, but it’s very possible that he could lose his job just like his lost all the marbles over the last five games. I’d seek greener, better gripping pastures.

On the Wire: Waiver Wire Super Snags from Week 4

Was 2008 the year to have the fifth pick in fantasy football?

So far this season, it would seem that the later draft picks have gone unscathed while the early drafters suffered some major blows to their studs. Owners have had to make due with their depth from the middle rounds, the true test of any fantasy football champion.

A handful of consensus top picks have already missed a game or been limited. LaDainian Tomlinson, slowed by his toe injury in Week 2, spooked some of his owners out of starting him in Week 3 even though he performed well. A.P. and Westbrook owners already have to play the “questionable or not” game each week, and Westbrook sat down in Week 4. Addai, who was banged up last season, isn’t inspiring confidence with his injury scares in just Week 1, and we all know what happened to Tom Brady.

All these injuries have already come up, and the Madden curse hasn’t even struck its cover boy yet. Is Brett Favre’s resilience strong enough to project the curse onto every other player in the NFL?

Marion Barber, Frank Gore and Clinton Portis owners may be sitting pretty for the moment, but owners that have made it through this rough patch for their stud with a winning record can feel good about their team going into Week 5.

If you haven’t been hit by injury, you are not safe yet. Karma can strike you down at any time. Now would be a great time to gather up some depth if you plan on making that playoff run, and if you haven’t gotten a win yet this season, maybe it’s time to completely drop all but your studs and start from scratch with waiver wire gems. As an alternative, you could just cry uncontrollably.

In addition to my take on who will make nice, happy point columns for your teams if you claim them this week, I’ll also start listing off a few guys worthy of being dropped (droppables) each week. Now, that doesn’t mean that you have to let them go unless there is a much better option. If you like a guy, who am I to judge? (A genius.) I didn’t stay in a Holiday Express last night.

Worth Claiming

Deuce McAllister, RB New Orleans Saints
The Deuce is back. After not utilizing him for three weeks, McAllister finally got to show what he was made of and wrecked shop with 20 carries and a touchdown. He might not be as good as he was two years ago, but he might be good enough if you need a situational to low-end RB2. McAllister is the hottest pickup of the week. Sorry, Pierre Thomas, you didn’t get it done.

LeRon McClain, RB Baltimore Ravens
It’s clear that Willis McGahee is not going to stay healthy. McClain is in control of the McGahee Voodoo doll, and he takes everything that opposing defenses give him — including a fantasy victory from me with that last TD Monday night. Out of anger, I’ll probably try to pick him up just so I can unceremoniously drop him Al Davis style.

Mewelde Moore, RB Pittsburgh Steelers
The Baltimore Ravens chewed up every running back that the Steelers sent at them on Monday night and left Moore, the fourth in line, as the last man standing. Do you think Willie Parker sat out just to save himself? Parker’s uncertain status means that Moore could be the starter in Steeler land for several weeks. Big Ben may rely more on the passing game, but Moore is worth snagging if you could use some bye week depth (or if you were counting on Willie Parker). The running game should still be effective for the Steelers.

Fred Jackson, RB Buffalo Bills
Another preseason lie: Marshawn Lynch will play all three downs. He’s not. Jackson’s in the mix, and he’s had nice fantasy outings throughout the early part of the season. Get him while he’s hot, and he’s a matchup start when the Bills face a weak defense.

Rudi Johnson, RB Detroit Lions
If no one has him yet, he’s worth getting if you need a RB since he has been named the starter. Kevin Smith is still not a guy worth dropping, and I don’t see the Lions running much when they are down by double digits.

Cedric Benson, RB Cincinnati Bengals
In a land of parole, the man with no charges is king. Benson finally found a home with the Bengals this week after being cleared of his boating/driving while intoxicated charges. The Bengals signed him for depth behind starter Chris Perry because they had to put DeDe Dorsey on IR, but we all know that a back can sneak up on you and take more prominent, shared role in the offense (see: Rudi Johnson).

Justin Fargas, RB Oakland Raiders
Remember that guy who was the starter before there was McFadden? Now that McFadden is slowed by his injury, Fargas might just have a chance to get his job back when he returns during the bye, but everything is still a little up in the air since the Lane Kiffin firing. To think, we had all given up on him. You probably have the bye this week to think about how much you like Fargas, but it wouldn’t hurt to grab him before games start this week so you don’t risk losing him to some schmuck who has a higher waiver than you next week (because your totally going to dominate this week, right?).

Leon Washington, RB New York Jets
While he’s supposed to be the change of pace for Thomas Jones, Washington is starting to see more time on the field in the faster-moving packages. He could mature into a situational starter if Brett Favre takes the Jets into a land that needs no solid run game. I expect Jones to return to fantasy relevance at some point in the next few weeks, but Washington could be a nice fill for you if you are out of options at RB. You might even be able to fool an owner or two into buying him at the price of a more solid performer if he has a big day with Brett.

Kevin Walter, WR Houston Texans
Moves like Wes Welker with better hands than Andre Johnson so far. Walter proved he was legit in Week 4. He’s even good at doing the “Hokey Pokey” with Matt Schaub. What a talent.

Bobby Engram, WR Seattle Seahawks
Returning this week from chipping his shoulder, Engram should be welcomed home by Matt Hasselbeck with open arms and lots of passes. Oh man, did he miss you, Engram.

Miles Austin, WR Dallas Cowboys
He’s worth it after another week (and another TD) if you have a spot for him. Austin’s likely to be more productive than Crayton this season, and he’s got that big play potential that you love to see in the No. 3 WR in an offense. The Cowboys are too powerful an offense for you to ignore Miles Austin, and outside of Crayton, his only competition for playing time is the hard-handed Sam Hurd.

Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith, WR New York Giants
Without Plax for Week 5, Hixon and Smith both get upgraded in the passing game. If Hixon really does assume the Plax role for this game, I like him much more than Smith. The passing game should be firing on all cylinders, and I think Eli likes and trusts Hixon after the preseason bombs he got to him. Smith and Toomer should both see increased targets in this one. None of the Giants WRs are bad starts this week against Seattle.

Lance Moore and Robert Meachem, WR New Orleans Saints
Unlike Matt Hasselbeck, whatever runs out there for Drew Brees this season gets productive before it gets hurt. I like Moore better than Meachem because he has the more reliable hands for Brees, but Meachem has that big play ability that keeps flaring up like a bad case of…well, let’s not talk about me. Until Marques Colston and/or Jeremy Shockey come back (at least two more weeks away), these two WRs will have nice games for you in a pinch. Brees will need to throw this week against a tough Vikings run defense and could expose the Raiders defense in Week 6 just like Cutler did.

Muhsin Muhammad, WR Carolina Panthers
Muhammad really fits in Carolina with Steve Smith and Delhomme. He’s valuable when the Panthers face a weak secondary, and he’ll take the heat off of Steve Smith each week. Muhammad makes for a great WR3 or even WR2 when the game plan calls for lots of passing.

Jerheme Urban and Steve Breaston, WR Arizona Cardinals
Boldin is very unlikely to play in Week 4. Getting popped in the head and shooting blood from your nose and mouth will do that to you. In his absence, I think Urban steps into the No. 2 spot in the Arizona offense. Everyone will tell you Breaston…but I still like Urban better. Breaston may have gotten the 100-yard game in Week 4, but Urban got the touchdown.

Justin Gage, WR Tennessee Titans
He’s not injured anymore and showed it with almost 100 yards this past week, but what happens when/if Vince Young comes back? For now, he’s a pretty good WR3 or WR3 with limited upside.

Anthony Fasano, TE Miami Dolphins
If he is available, he’s a great spot fill this week. Any team playing San Diego is promised a TE touchdown so far this season, and Chad Pennington already likes throwing to his tight ends. David Martin might not even be a bad play this week, but I like Fasano more.

Matt Schaub, QB Houston Texans
When he’s at the top of his game, he’s one of the best QB2s around and sometimes worthy of QB1 status. It might be a QB1 sort of day against he Colts. I imagine they’ll be playing from behind.

Kyle Orton, QB Chicago Bears
What has the world come to these days? NECKBEARD just became a decent fantasy play? He’s thrown multiple touchdowns and close to 200 yards in his recent games. You have to accept some turnovers, but he’s better than a lot of other risky plays on the wire. This week, he faces off against Detroit with a matchup against Atlanta in Week 6. If you are hurting at QB, maybe Orton is the answer. Hooray?

Guys you should already own by now (but if you don’t, maybe you should):
Steve Slaton (last man standing and with talent), Dustin Keller (Favre-to-TE TD bandwagon), Warrick Dunn (stealing value from Graham by the second)

Ones to Watch

Jerious Norwood, RB Atlanta Falcons
Along the same lines as Leon Washington, Norwood has seen his role increase this season. Michael Turner is by far the more dominant back in this offense, but when the running game is emphasized, Norwood gets enough of a piece to put up fantasy numbers. Unfortunately, Atlanta’s running game doesn’t have many more sure things on the schedule. (Yes, it might be time to worry, Turner owners.)

Kevin Curtis, WR Philadelphia Eagles
McNabb’s best target from last season should be back soon, but it might not be this week. Best skill: Running through the end zone before dropping the ball. Look for him to make an impact when he returns.

Deion Branch, WR Seattle Seahawks
While Engram is back this week from his chipped shoulder, Branch is just getting back to the field coming off knee surgery. He probably won’t see much playing time in Week 5, and with Bobby Engram back in the lineup, he might be a Casper even if he gets out there. Engram is the guy to own in Seattle from now on, but Branch could make a triumphant fantasy return if he can get comfortable on his knee again. Hey, Ronnie Brown did it.

Sidney Rice, WR Minnesota Vikings
Sidney Rice is another guy returning from a knee injury, but if he sees more time this week against the Saints, he should show what he’s worth. His TD in Week 1 against the Green Bay secondary was a sign of things to come, and I like him more than I like Berrian and cake…but not as much as cheese fries.

Devin Hester, WR Chicago Bears
He dropped out of our fantasy minds and hearts with his rib injury, but if Kyle Orton becomes a potential fantasy play, Hester is right up there with him. Oh, and please prepare a way to clip wings off pigs. It’s going to happen next.

Chris Henry, WR Cincinnati Bengals
Coming off suspension, Chris Henry will be working out with the team this week. There’s no promise that he plays on Sunday — or even makes the roster if he’s out of shape. Wait for some news out of the Bengals camp or a fantasy sighting in Week 5 before you go out to grab him. The Bengals offense just doesn’t seem to be firing on all cylinders yet this season.

Zach Miller, TE Oakland Raiders
Miller had sleeper status coming into the year, but he was almost non-existent for the Raiders earlier in the season. The big day in Week 4 might have people talking, but take away his TD catch and he had a slightly better day than usual (32 yards from four catches). It might have just been his week facing the Chargers. Was Shawn Merriman in charge of covering tight ends? If the chemistry continues between Miller and JaMarcus Russell, he’s got the talent to be a starting fantasy tight end.

Kevin Boss, TE New York Giants
He started slow but showed promise before heading into his bye week. Without Plax in Week 5, guys like Boss and Steve Smith might see more targets from Eli. If no one has him yet, keep your eye on him to see if he builds from that Week 3 performance, and if you’re tight end hasn’t performed yet, maybe you should switch it up and take a chance on Boss.

JaMarcus Russell, QB Oakland Raiders
The big boy out of LSU hasn’t blown up any stat lines in the NFL yet and just lost a head coach, but he’s still an interesting fantasy option. He’s got a cannon for the big play, and his ability to throw the ball across his body with just arm and some significant distance was impressive in Week 4 even when he was being swarmed. If you’re backup QB is lacking in the upside department, Russell could fill that role nicely. He looks like one of the most consistent options at QB even if his numbers aren’t spectacular. Upside is that he could come out of the bye week putting up better numbers, but you can probably wait to grab him until next week.

Marc Bulger, QB St. Louis Rams
Nothing much has changed, but Bulger has a new coach and his starting job back. He hasn’t done much yet this season to deserve a roster spot, but he could. He’s one of those “names” that people always give value in fantasy. That makes him worth consideration, but it’s still hard to pull the trigger. Wait until his first game back unless you really need him. The upside is there.

Carolina Panthers D/ST
The Panthers defense hasn’t exploded just yet, but they are keeping the running backs pinned down for low yardage. If they tighten up a bit more, they might just become an elite unit. They also have a nice stretch Weeks 10-12 against the Raiders, Lions and Falcons. Consider this your advance warning.

New York Jets D/ST
The Jets have quietly become a nice fantasy defense. Much like the Detroit Lions last year, you wouldn’t really think to consider them until they have a big week. Well, they had one this past week against Arizona, and after the bye this week, they face the Bengals, Raiders and Chiefs. None of those offenses make mistakes. Not ever. (Incredible sarcasm here as if you couldn’t tell.)

Flukes to Ignore or Droppables

Correll Buckhalter, RB Philadelphia Eagles
If you didn’t get him last week to fill in for your injured Westbrook, you probably missed your chance. Word is that Westbrook all but suited up on Sunday night, and I expect to see him take the field against Washington. Westbrook just missed his one game for this season, so if the trend holds true, Buckhalter has almost no value moving forward. His value stays put only if Westbrook sits again.

DeAngelo Williams, RB Carolina Panthers
If you have a guy with more upside, jump on him. Williams is on the losing end of a battle for carries since he doesn’t see the ball near the end zone. Unless you can unload him in a trade, it might be downhill from here. He’s still got value, but don’t hang onto him waiting for a miracle, okay? Promise me…

Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers
Mike Martz forgot he was on the roster after all that talk of TE passing sets, and it looks like he might even like the other guy better. Davis is not worth keeping on your roster until he proves something.

Dante Rosario, TE Carolina Panthers
While he had a great day in Week 1, Rosario has seen less action since the return of Steve Smith. Now that Muhsin Muhammad is getting looks as well, it’s just time to move on to another hot waiver wire TE or the guy you drafted. (Please don’t say Vernon Davis.)

Joey Galloway, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Is it worth it for you to hold onto him for the two to three game stints that he will play this season? Not if you can pick up someone who is doing well now and not burning a hole in your bench.

Pierre Thomas, RB New Orleans Saints
Too French to push through the piles like Deuce can. Thomas is now mixed in there somewhere but not anywhere fantasy relevant for now.

Ray Rice, RB Baltimore Ravens
Obviously, we all missed a memo in thinking Cam Cameron was going to use this guy in place of Willis McGahee if McGahee stayed banged up. It was all a trick to hide the really BIG talent, LeRon McClain.

Ahman Green, RB Houston Texans
Really? Are you that much of a believer? Think about it. How desperate are you to have RB help down the road compared to what you can get right now? You should consider more immediate options. Green has likely lost his starting job and a significant role in the Houston offense this season. Deuce McAllister, LeRon McClain and Justin Fargas are all upgrades.

Javon Walker, WR Oakland Raiders
Wow, you are a believer.

A Fool and His Money in Week 3

Last week, Nick and I were on fire. We had identical picks for 12 of the 15 games, and in those games, the two of us went 8-3 with one push.

Sadly, I lost the three picks on which we disagreed. After a sterling 11-3-1 record in Week 2, Nick is now up by three games.

Before we get started, let me explain a bit of what goes on behind the curtain.

While we don’t discuss our picks before we send them in to Jacob each week, Nick and I do watch football together on Sundays with all of our friends and participate in a mutual fantasy football league (with Jacob). It should come as no surprise that our picks and our logic are often similar, but no worries here. I’m going to beat Nick like he owes me money this week.

Here are some stats from the season thus far:

Home Team Winning Outright: 16-15
Favorites: 19-12
Home Team Against the Spread (ATS): 14-16-1
Favorites ATS: 15-14-1


Nothing out of the ordinary. The favorites are winning roughly two-thirds of the games, and the spread splits are very even. We’ll see if the trends continue in Week 3.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Chadam Takes: FALCONS (-5.5) over Chiefs

I wonder if Nick is doubling down on the Chiefs after last week. My condolences go out to L.J. owners — the situation in Kansas City has “Moss in Oakland” written all over it.

Nick Takes: FALCONS (-5.5) over Chiefs

I placed my faith in the Chiefs last week, and they tomahawked any hope I had of winning my bet early on. The Falcons are competing, and I expect Michael “The Burner” Turner to have another good game closer to his Week 1 performance than his Week 2 one.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills

Chadam Takes: BILLS (-9.5) over Raiders

The Raiders should be getting more points here, especially considering this game is at Buffalo. How long will it be until teams start throwing 11 men in the box against McFadden?

Nick Takes: BILLS (-9.5) over Raiders

The Bills look like they are for real. They’ve beaten two playoff teams from last year convincingly. I don’t expect them to have much trouble with the Raiders while at home. A preemptive congrats to Marshawn Lynch owners in Week 3.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Chadam Takes: BEARS (-3) over Buccaneers

Even with Hester doubtful for this game, I have to go with Chicago. This one won’t be a barn burner. The over/under is 35.5 points, and I’m thinking less than 30 points will be scored in this game.

Nick Takes: BEARS (-3) over Buccaneers

This game will set the tone for the first half of the season for each of these teams. Both these teams have decent running games, great defenses and QBs they wish they didn’t have to start. The Bears are at home, and that makes the difference in my mind.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Chadam Takes: Texans (+5) over TITANS

Albert Haynesworth is a monster. That being sad, I think people are sleeping on the Texan’s offense after they faced a great Pittsburgh D and took the fantasy back burner with the unexpected bye week.

Nick Takes: Texans (+5) over TITANS

The Titans have looked really good so far this season, but as a Hurricane Ike evacuee who still hasn’t been able to return home, I have to make the homer pick with the Texans. Houston will need some points from their defense and special teams to make this upset happen.

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings

Chadam Takes: Panthers (+3.5) over VIKINGS

The Panthers have looked surprisingly good in the first two weeks. With Adrian Peterson limited and potentially out, this pick is a no-brainer. Here’s the real question: how good is Carolina?

Nick Takes: Panthers (+3.5) over VIKINGS

Talk about no respect. The 2-0 Panthers are underdogs against the 0-2 Vikings. I was liking the Vikings in this one until I saw that, and then I heard they are panicking and starting their backup QB, Gus Frerotte. I remember when I was younger, my dad told me only an idiot would bet on Gus Frerotte. Well, Dad, I’m trying…

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Chadam Takes: PATRIOTS (-13) over Dolphins

I really don’t like giving two TDs, but it’s Chad Pennington for crying out loud. Besides, I am warming up to the underdog role the Patriots are taking. Here’s to hoping the home team dominates.

Nick Takes: PATRIOTS (-13) over Dolphins

The Patriots needed some time to get over their long lost lover, Brady, but now it’s time for everything to click with their newest pretty boy, Matt Cassel. Consider this the honeymoon. I’m expecting the Patriots to put up about 50 points in this slaughter game.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants

Chadam Takes: GIANTS (-13) over Bengals

Wow, now that is a spread! I’m only laying the points because I really don’t believe in Palmer anymore. Is he even a top-12 quarterback in real life? Look at his stats for last year minus the insane Week 2 Cleveland game, and his line was 3730 yards, 20 TDs and 18 INTs. That’s Philip Rivers in 2007 (3152-21-15) or Rex Grossman in 2006 (3193-23-20). Food for thought.

Nick Takes: GIANTS (-13) over Bengals

I wonder how bad it feels to be a Bengals fan. They must be the saddest, disappointed and perplexed fans in the nation. Is that really Carson Palmer or is his sister filling in for him?

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins

Chadam Takes: Cardinals (+3) over REDSKINS

This is my favorite pick of the week, and I’m debating hitting up a sperm bank this week to get some extra cash. I’m feeling another vintage Kurt Warner game — 392 yards for three TDs and a pick. Those of you who got him late in drafts are looking pretty smart right now — two thumbs pointed at this guy! (Ed. Note: Eighth round of a 16-round, 14-team draft with less than 10 QBs off the board isn’t exactly late, champ.)

Nick Takes: REDSKINS (-3) over Cardinals

I was looking for a reason to believe in Jason Campbell, and the Redskins delivered in a comeback win against the Saints. I question how the Cards will fair versus a playoff-caliber opponent.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

Chadam Takes: 49ERS (-4) over Lions

What a strange game. I never really know what to do when two crappy teams play against each other. I think that San Francisco has a better chance of stopping Kitna & Co. than Detroit has of stopping Gore.

Nick Takes: Lions (+4) over 49ERS

The Lions might be the most talented perennial loser there is in the NFL. They have some sick receivers in “Megatron” (Calvin Johnson) and Roy Williams. Remember when Roy Williams admitted to stiffing pizza delivery guys? That was awesome. I’m picking the Lions just for that.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Chadam Takes: SEAHAWKS (-9) over Rams

And I will never back the stupid Rams again. (Ed. Note: Chadam picked the Rams last week.) The only other way you could convince me to take Seattle and give nine points is if they were playing Notre Dame. If I set the over/under for sacks on Marc Bulger at seven, would you take the over? I would.

Nick Takes: Rams (+9) over Seahawks

Does anybody actually want to watch this game? I expect the Seahawks to win, but they don’t deserve to be favored by nine points over anyone. I’m sure Chadam won’t take the Rams three weeks in a row, so I’ll take them for the sake of being different than him. Chadam and I only differed on three picks last week, and I was right in all three cases.

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos

Chadam Takes: BRONCOS (-5.5) over Saints

Wow, what an offense out there in Denver. Congratulations on making the fantasy playoffs, Cutler owners. I’ll be teasing the hell out of this game.

Nick Takes: BRONCOS (-5.5) over Saints

Is it considered jumping on the bandwagon if I’ve picked them to win their first two weeks? I don’t care, but I’m picking them until they prove me wrong. And will someone please tell Drew Brees to throw Shockey the ball! I reached for Shockey in my fantasy league, and he is not proving me correct so far. (Still, my fantasy team is 2-0.)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles

Chadam Takes: EAGLES (-3) over Steelers

This one is the game of the week, and I could go either way with this pick. Considering the minor questions surrounding Roethlisberger’s health, I’m siding with the home team in this one.

Nick Takes: EAGLES (-3) over Steelers

This game is probably the toughest to pick this week. I like both teams, but the stupid Steelers defied normal logic last week and didn’t kick a field goal late in the game that would have covered the spread. That bad karma is coming back to them this week with a loss to an in-state rival, the Eagles.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Chadam Takes: Jaguars (+5.5) over COLTS

With three of the Colt’s O linemen injured and their defense (sans Sanders) looking suddenly mediocre, this game doesn’t look as obvious as it might seem given Jacksonville’s struggles the first two weeks.

Nick Takes: COLTS (-5.5) over Jaguars

Looking over my picks, I like the home teams a lot this week. That’s precisely why I like the Colts to cover in this game. They also get Dallas Clark back, which I think will be a big boost. The Jags will have a hint of desperation in their play calling this week that will backfire on them.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Chadam Takes: RAVENS (-2.5) over Browns

While I think the Browns will bounce back soon, I’ll go against them for one more week. Would people be worried about Braylon Edwards if he hadn’t dropped that 53-yard TD pass in Week 1? I’m buying him. No worries.

Nick Takes: Browns (+2.5) over RAVENS

I don’t like the Browns, but I think they can beat the rookie-led Ravens in this one. The Browns desperately need for Braylon Edwards to break out of his slump in this game.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-3) over PACKERS

Too bad Rodgers can’t face the Lions every week, huh? This game is another favorite spread of mine. Dallas is for real.

Nick Takes: Cowboys (-3) over PACKERS

This one is going to be a good game to watch. I like the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers a lot, but so far, they have only beat winless teams. The Cowboys have looked unstoppable with Marion the Barbarian and Owens. I think the Cowboys get this one, but I’m guessing we’ll see a rematch of these two teams in January.

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers

Updated: Corrected home team and spread on Jets at Chargers. I won’t point fingers.

Chadam Takes: Jets (+8.5) over CHARGERS

I’m still on the Jets bandwagon, so I gotta take the points in this one. While Sproles is good, he’s not even close to a healthy L.T. The Chargers might win this one but definitely not by nine points.

Nick Takes: Jets (+8.5) over CHARGERS

I’ve been flip-flopping on this pick all week. I like the Chargers to win, but I don’t know what to expect from Brett Favre. His gunslinger attitude will either keep it close or blow it wide open. I’m going to say he does enough in the fourth quarter to keep it close.

Last Week:

Nick: 11-3-1
Chadam: 8-6-1

Current Standings after Week 2:

Chadam: 16-14-1
Nick: 19-11-1