A Fool and His Money in Week 11

It’s go time. Once again, a ‘$’ marks all of Nick’s locks of the week while a ‘#’ marks all of Chadam’s locks.

Thursday Night Football: New York Jets at New England Patriots

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Jets (+3) over PATRIOTS
Nick Takes: PATRIOTS (-3) over Jets

In taking the Jets, Chadam says: I’ll admit, I’m sucked in to this Mangini-Belichick rivalry — if only Tom Brady were here to help run up the score. I like how the Jets sign Ty Law, who’s probably old enough to have a son that’s playing in the NFL, just to gain some knowledge of New England game plans. At least, they aren’t REALLY planning on starting Ty Law, right?

In taking the Patriots, Nick says: Brett Favre has not improved within the Jets system this year. Matt Cassel has improved within the Patriots system this year. I think this game will come down to Favre having to make some plays, and the Patriots defense will step up to stop him.

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Lions (+14.5) over PANTHERS
Nick Takes: PANTHERS (-14.5) over Lions

In taking the Lions, Chadam says: I really like the Panthers, but that is one helluva spread. There’s no way the Lions win a game on the road, but it had better be a damn good team for me to lay more than two touchdowns. Carolina isn’t there for me… yet.

In taking the Panthers, Nick says: I hate giving up 14.5 points to anyone. I hate it. But there is no way I could possibly pick the Lions, who are playing Daunte Culpepper and Drew Stanton at QB. What am I supposed to do? Talk myself into them? I’ll go with this: Jake Delhomme and the Panthers played horribly last week, so we can expect a bounce back game in which they put up a ton of points. That is how I justify giving up 14.5 points.

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: FALCONS (-5.5) over Broncos
Nick Takes: Broncos (+5.5) over FALCONS

In taking the Falcons, Chadam says: I miss the good old days when people thought the Falcons sucked. They would’ve been seven-point underdogs. This pick is a lot harder now. I’m betting the Falcons will get a few more stops than Denver does. We’ll see how that plays out.

In taking the Broncos, Nick says: I know the Falcons are undefeated at home and playing well, but something in my gut is telling me to take the Broncos in this one. I want to pick against the Broncos for what they did to me earlier this season, but at least they spoiled Miss Quinn’s debut last week.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Texans (+8.5) over COLTS
Nick Takes: COLTS (-8.5) over Texans

In taking the Texans, Chadam says: At least with Sage behind center, we might suck hard enough to get a good draft pick. Sigh.

In taking the Colts, Nick says: This is an intriguing matchup. The Texans should have won earlier this year against the Colts, but Sage Rosenfels unraveled to give the game away. Sage is back to being a starter, but after last week’s performance, I doubt he has recovered from what happened in the last Colts game. Indy has been winning ugly the past few weeks, but I think this will be a breakout game for them.

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Raiders (+10.5) over DOLPHINS
Nick Takes: DOLPHINS (-10.5) over Raiders

In taking the Raiders, Chadam says: I don’t really trust the Dolphin’s ability to cover big spreads. Besides, this feels like a week in which the Raiders will bust out their awesome defense and turn this game into a 10-7 contest that’s useless for fantasy purposes.

In taking the Dolphins, Nick says: What a dysfunctional organization. I’ll just stick with the usual: the Raiders suck, their owner sucks, their coach sucks, their top draft picks suck, and, last but not least, their fans suck. Go Ricky Williams and the Dolphins!

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: BUCS (-4) over Vikings
Nick Takes: Vikings (+4) over BUCS

In taking the Bucs, Chadam says: This is a coin-flip game, so I’ll go with the better defense.

In taking the Vikings, Nick says: I think the Vikings might have found something within themselves in the comeback win against the Packers last week. Let’s see if it carries over. It’s tough to pick against Purple Jesus.

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: CHIEFS (+5) over Saints
Nick Takes: Saints (-5) over CHIEFS

In taking the Chiefs, Chadam says: To think, one month ago, this would’ve been a no-brainer. While I think the Chiefs will play well at home, the Saints will roll if Reggie Bush plays.

In taking the Saints, Nick says: The Chiefs have remained surprisingly competitive the past few weeks and covered the spread the past three. With that said, I’m still taking the Saints. I told you to expect big games from Marques Colston because I traded him in fantasy football, and look what happened.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals

Fools Take: Eagles (-9.5) over BENGALS $

In taking the Eagles, Nick says: Did anyone else hear Ocho Cinco say he thinks the Bengals can finish 8-8? If he had a reality show I would watch it just to see if we are living on the same planet. Ryan Fitzpatrick may be from Harvard, but he is going to have a lot of trouble dealing with Jim Johnson and all his crazy blitzes. The Eagles need this one to stay in the playoff hunt.

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: GIANTS (-6.5) over Ravens
Nick Takes: Ravens (+6.5) over GIANTS

In taking the Giants, Chadam says: This matchup will be the first game where I’m not sure the Giants are heavily favored. Now that the creampuff section of their schedule is over, I’m interested to see how they hold up against another great defense.

In taking the Ravens, Nick says: Both these teams are looking really good right now, but the Ravens have been destroying teams as of late. Both teams have solid defenses, potent running games and fearless quarterbacks, albeit one is fearless because he is a rookie and doesn’t know any better. This matchup is the type of game the Baltimore defense loves. I’m taking the points in this one.

San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Fools Take: STEELERS (-4.5) over Chargers #

In taking the Steelers, Nick says: I don’t like either team in this game. The Steelers have lost two of their last three, and the Chargers are hanging on by the skin on their teeth. Normally, I would take the points in a game like this one, but I think the Steelers have the better defense and at least the ability to turn this game into a blow out.

In choosing the Steelers as a lock, Chadam says: If this was 2006, I might be more worried, but 2008’s Tomlinson and Co. does not scare me one bit.

Tennessee Titans over Jacksonville Jaguars

Fools Take: Titans (-3) over JAGS $ #

In taking the Titans, Nick says: The Titans are getting no respect from the odds makers. I know the Jags looked “good” last week against a Daunte Culpepper led Lions team, but come on. This is the same team that got beat by the Bengals two weeks ago. I haven’t forgotten that.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Fools Take: Cardinals (-2.5) over SEAHAWKS #

In taking the Cardinals, Nick says: Will Hasselbeck make all the Seahawks’ problems disappear? I don’t think so. Kurt Warner, on the other hand, has made everyone forget that Matt Leinart is waiting in the wings. Warner is a passing machine in the Cardinals’ offense and will continue to be even more of a threat with Hightower catching out of the backfield.

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Fools Take: 49ERS (-6) over Rams

In taking the 49ers, Nick says: The 49ers didn’t win last week, but they showed some fight. That’s good enough for me to take them over the Rams. Do you remember a few weeks ago when everybody was claiming Jim Haslett saved their season? They were wrong.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: PACKERS (-4) over Bears
Nick Takes: Bears (+4) over PACKERS

In taking the Packers, Chadam says: I still think that the Pack will win this division. Their defense is getting a little healthier — well, at least their secondary. Besides, betting on Rex Grossman is bad for your health. [Note from Jacob: Kyle Orton is currently listed as probable for this game.]

In taking the Bears, Nick says: It would be nice to know Orton’s status for this game. I’m going to assume he is playing. The Packers have struggled lately and the Bears have lost a few close games. I’m taking the points in what I expect to be a close, division rivalry game.

Sunday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-2) over REDSKINS
Nick Takes: REDSKINS (+2) over Cowboys

In taking the Cowboys, Chadam says: My fantasy hopes rest on Tony Romo, so I might as well double down, right?

In taking the Redskins, Nick says: I don’t care if Romo is back or not. The Redskins have already beaten them at Dallas, and I’m taking the Redskins with points in a no-brainer. Not quite a lock, but without a doubt, you have to take the Redskins at home with points.

Monday Night Football: Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Browns (+4.5) over BILLS
Nick Takes: BILLS (-4.5) over Browns

In taking the Browns, Chadam says: I’m torn between betting against Coach Romeo and betting against crappy Trent Edwards. Let’s take the points and see where that gets us.

In taking the Bills, Nick says: The Bills are unraveling like I said they would a few weeks ago, but the Browns… “I cannot play with them; I cannot win with them, cannot coach with them, can’t do it.” I hate Brady Quinn, and I hate Braylon Edwards after wasting my first round pick on him in fantasy football. Screw you, Cleveland.

Nick’s Lock ($): Eagles (-9.5) over BENGALS, Titans (-3) over JAGS

Chadam’s Locks (#): STEELERS (-4.5) over Chargers, Titans (-3) over JAGS, Cardinals (-2.5) over SEAHAWKS

Last Week:

Nick: 10-3

Current Standings after Week 10:

Nick: 76-62-2
Nick’s Locks: 2-1

On the Wire: Waiver Wire Free-for-all from Week 9

It’s time for change, America.

Bring me your injured, your underperforming, your studs gone duds. Together, we can reshape your fantasy team for the future into a team without injustice, without phantom starts (see: Willis McGahee) and without any of Shanahan’s running backs — well, maybe just one.

Yes, we can. Yes, we can. YES, WE CAN.

And on that very original campaign note, Fools in 2012.

I hope you all voted yesterday, but while you were busy at the polls, I was busy collecting a vast array of pickups that could help you make it to the playoffs. In fact, this might the largest waiver wire column I’ve ever written, and upon finishing it, I just wanted to call my friends in to look at it before I unleashed it on the world.

This week in fantasy football, we have another free-for-all on quarterbacks as injuries took the fantasy lives of several recent stars. Going with our theme of “change,” a handful of very bad teams had quarterbacks show promise this week, and there’s no pork in that.

With all the turnover and surprises, we’re going very, very in-depth with a long list of names and fantasy fortunes because, short of a few quick fixes, I wouldn’t expect many fantasy studs to emerge for your playoff run. Gather the depth you need and take a few chances if you can afford the roster space.

There are four more wins to be had, and these guys could be the ones to get you there and keep you there through Week 16 or 17.

It could happen in ’08, people. You can still write yourself in on that final fantasy playoff spot ballot — that is, unless you already lost Ohio.

Worth Claiming

Ryan Torain, RB Denver Broncos – I said he might be the last man standing last week, but now he really is. Michael Pittman and Andre Hall were both placed on the IR after Week 9, so Selvin Young and whatever RB depth Shanahan finds in a back alley this week are Torain’s only competition.

Don’t be scared off by Torain’s one yard on Sunday in three carries. Shanahan wants to bring him along slowly, but if Selvin Young’s hamstring is still holding him back, Torain should get the start against the Browns this week.

Of course, after one series, Shanahan will probably make sure that 75 percent of the touches go to Peyton Hillis so that Hillis looks like the best fantasy back in Denver. Oh, how I hate you, Leatherface.

Ray Rice, RB Baltimore Ravens — McGahee hasn’t been healthy all season, and after disappearing off the map, Rice exploded in Week 9 with 154 yards rushing and 22 yards receiving.

In Week 10 against the Texans, Harbaugh says that both McGahee and Rice will carry the football, but I’d bet Rice sees more looks. The schedule is unkind to Baltimore running backs after this week, but we know they’ll run the football until the very end.

Jamaal Charles, RB Kansas City Chiefs — Much like Torain, Charles is the one and only for the Chiefs…until Larry Johnson returns at least. Charles had 100+ yards against the Bucs, a very tough defense, on only 18 carries.

Johnson remains suspended for Week 10, so Charles could handle a majority of the load against the Chargers. While the Chargers are right in the middle — 16 out of 32 — as far as run defenses go, many a team has had a problem containing Charles. I saw him play at Texas, and when he’s making the right moves and holding onto the ball, he can be deadly — “Let Booby spin!”

When Johnson returns in Week 11, it’ll be interesting to see where the Chiefs want the carries to go, but the rock could stay in Charles hands for a good while with a strong showing this week. We know L.J. is lacking in the gold stars and brownie points.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB New England Patriots — He’s a lock for a score at least once in every Patriots game until Sammy Morris’ or LaMont Jordan’s return. If both continue to sit, “Law Firm” is a decent option in week 10 against Buffalo.

After that, his production against the Jets, Dolphins and Steelers will probably trail off until Sammy Morris or LaMont Jordan make him irrelevant. For now, he’s a solid depth option, and he’s got such a cool nickname.

Maurice Morris, RB Seattle Seahawks — It’s a split, but I like his half better than Julius Jones’ half. A few good matchups still to come for the Seattle run game, and the passing game doesn’t provide much competition.

Ted Ginn Jr., WR Miami Dolphins – He’s still not reliable enough to put all your hopes in after his low-scoring Week 9 performance — that’s why I ignored you last week, Ginn — but don’t take him off your radar just yet.

He doesn’t play a solid secondary for the rest of the season, so Chad Pennington might find him again and again and again. You’ll probably have to get him on your roster now to have him when he goes off again, so add him for some depth if you can or if you’re desperately seeking a WR to stay in the hunt.

Just try not to start him until he has another good game.

Shaun Hill, QB San Francisco 49ers — Hill’s actually my top QB rec this week if you lost one or need a filler for a few more weeks. He’s a Mike Martz quarterback, and he faces the Cardinals, Rams, Cowboys and Bills before playoffs. Only two of those teams rank in the top half of passing defenses, and those same two (Cowboys and Bills) currently have banged up corners. In the fantasy playoffs, Hill faces the Jets, Dolphins and Rams again.

He showed good ball control last season in giving just one interception in three games, and with Martz backing him, he could more productive than he was last season. Maybe he can break the 200-yard mark more frequently, which he almost did in the last half of the game in Week 8.

Brady Quinn, QB Cleveland Browns — Yeah, so that happened. The Browns are making the switch to Brady. I am sure the Browns female fan base is excited, but frankly, I don’t like Quinn anymore than I like Derek Anderson. In fact, I might like him less.

Quinn looked iffy in the preseason, and I couldn’t quite form an opinion on him versus Derek Anderson. He’s not exactly a rookie with almost a full two seasons in the Browns system under his belt, but I expect him to make mistakes, force the ball to Braylon Edwards and maybe even lean on the tight end. Fortunately, the Browns have a pretty good one in Kellen Winslow.

Seems like this move is just one of those “okay, fans, we’re trying” efforts, and I don’t like it. Still, if you had Anderson on your roster, Quinn should produce similar numbers after overcoming growing pains in promising games against the Broncos, Bills, Texans and Colts.

Tyler Thigpen, QB Kansas City Chiefs — When you’re a young quarterback, you just have to hope you end up landing somewhere with a dependable tight end and a dominant wide receiver to target. Luckily for Thigpen, he’s got that, and it’s done him well the past two weeks.

He’s also got a few trick plays up his sleeves and some nice matchups over the next four weeks: Chargers, Saints, Bills and Raiders with fantasy playoffs against Broncos, Chargers and Dolphins.

It’s hard to recommend him with any certainty because he’s no lock to put up points, but he hasn’t turned over the ball and has Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. I think he’s a sleeper to keep it up through the end of the season, but at least you know that he won’t hurt you too badly if he falls in production.

And for some reason, it disgusts me less to recommend young Thigpen than it did to point out Kyle Orton’s success this season. Is it all in the neck beard? Only time will tell.

Sage Rosenfels, QB Houston Texans — Matt Schaub was knocked out for a month with a knee injury. Now Texans fans can finally get that Sage they’ve been looking for this season?

What? They don’t WANT him to start after he helicoptered his way back in the backup role against the Colts?

Rosenfels takes over one of the most potent offenses in fantasy football this weekend, but he also faces the Ravens, Colts, Browns and Jaguars before Schaub returns. That’s not exactly the stretch you want to see for a guy who is known to lead big drives only to end them with a fatal mistake.

It’ll be risky picking him up and expecting studs like Andre Johnson to produce for him in tougher games, but at least the Ravens secondary isn’t at full strength for Week 10.

Claim him if you have Schaub and don’t want to chance other options, but if you are already a lock for the playoffs, why not take chance on someone like Thigpen to produce for you? (Wow, now I’m cheerleading for the guy. Someone virtual-slap me.)

Daunte Culpepper and/or Drew Stanton, QB Detroit Lions — I think the best part of Dan Orlovsky’s current thumb injury is that he had “zero” doubt about playing in Week 10. Maybe Orlovsky’s struggles are due to his misunderstanding of math and percentages? Perhaps he thinks the Lions 0 percent win percentage is a good thing.

Regardless, a thumb injury has him out for Week 10 and possibly much longer. We don’t really know how long at this point.

Drew Stanton knows the system but doesn’t have the confidence of the coaching staff, which is probably why they signed Daunte Culpepper. But Culpepper, a week into the job and almost a year removed from playing football, will be a shaky start in Week 10 against the Jaguars. Marinelli expected him to pick up the offense quickly but not this quickly.

If I had to choose one, I’d take Culpepper for the possible start in Week 10 and the more likely start long-term. Culpepper could develop into a nice No. 2 QB during fantasy playoffs. He plays the Vikings, Colts and Saints, and he has “Megatron” (Calvin Johnson) to throw to each week.

Rex Grossman, QB Chicago Bears – See how that happens? All this outpouring of Kyle Orton love coming out before his game against the Lions, and then a fat Lion takes out his ankle.

With Orton out for four weeks, Grossman is your starter. He’s a shaky start against the Titans, Packers and resurgent Rams defense with his tendency to throw interceptions, but he’s not a bad desperation play.

At least he’ll be able to lean on Matt Forte outside of this week against the Titans.

Kevin Boss, TE New York Giants — Two touchdowns in the past two games, and even though he’s a little banged up with a bad ankle, he faces a Philly defense in Week 10 that’s admitted to having a problem covering tight ends. How’s that sound?

Dan Carpenter, K Miami Dolphins — He’s not on many radars, but Carpenter has put up 29 fantasy points in the last two weeks with seven field goals made and four extra points in that span. The best fantasy sign is that the Dolphins are lining him up deep. Three of his attempts in Week 9 were more than 40 yards out, but he hasn’t been asked to kick one longer than 50.

If he continues to get this many long field goal chances or more extra points once the Dolphins’ offense starts scoring left and right against a bunch of weak fantasy defenses (Seahawks, Raiders, Patriots, Rams, Bills, 49ers, Chiefs), then he could be one of the best kickers to own in the second half.

Guys you probably should have already picked up:

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE Minnesota Vikings — Three touchdowns in his past four games.

Derrick Mason, WR Baltimore Ravens — PPR monster with 130+ and a score in Week 9, but a rough schedule from here.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR Indianapolis Colts — Two TDs in Week 9.

Greg Camarillo, WR Miami Dolphins — More reliable than Ginn and 100+ yards in Week 9.

Kevin Curtis, WR Philadelphia Eagles – Finally showing up with 83 yards, but tough schedule the rest of the way.

Tim Hightower, RB Arizona Cardinals — Now starting and eating touchdowns for breakfast.

Matt Ryan, QB Atlanta Falcons — Not blasting you out of your seat, but good QB2 production and getting better.

Marc Bulger, QB St. Louis Rams — He’s sort of back and has an easier schedule in the second half.

Ones to Watch

Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker, RB New Orleans Saints — We’re getting close to Deuce McAllister’s appeal, so we’ll know soon enough whether he’ll be leaving the Saints’ services. If so, both are likely to produce numbers until the return of Reggie Bush, who might throw things out the window again.

Week 11, the Saints have the Chiefs followed by the Packers, and if for some reason Bush isn’t back by Week 14, then the Saints backs have Atlanta, Chicago and Detroit. Playing the Lions in the fantasy championship game? Check and mate.

Selvin Young, RB Denver Broncos — If he’s healthy, the starting could be his…or Peyton Hillis’…or it might belong to the guy that guy in a cubicle next to you. Regardless, he has value when healthy, and if someone was silly enough to drop him, he could fight for you in games against the Browns, Falcons, Raiders, Jets, Chiefs and Bills.

The playoff section of that run isn’t great, but his return in Week 11 could help you get there. Keep in mind that the Broncos are now a pass-first offense, and pick him up as you see fit.

J.J. Arrington, RB Arizona Cardinals — The speedy back has taken the No. 2 spot in the RB depth chart now that Tim Hightower is the starter. Edgerrin James is not likely to get more than handful of carries in any game, and on Sunday, Arrington was involved in 11 plays with 62 rushing yards and 57 receiving yards.

As long as he’s being used as the compliment to Hightower, Arrington could post similarly impressive numbers, but he’s boom or bust as a third-down, big-play back. Let’s see what he can do against the 49ers in Week 10 before he goes on a roster.

Sidney Rice, WR Minnesota Vikings — The Vikings have been more productive passing the ball, but Rice is just now returning from injury and might not have a chance to make an impact. Even though he caught a TD on Sunday, that was his only catch. Still, if you are preparing for the playoffs, he gets the Lions, Cardinals and Falcons in Weeks 14-16. That’s promising if he gets back in this offense by then.

Mark Bradley, WR Kansas City Chiefs — A former QB and emerging star in the Kansas City offense. He’s been a big part of Thigpen’s success and might be worth jumping on now if you can afford to chance it. Bowe and Tony Gonzalez can both pull double coverage at times to leave Bradley open for a play.

Byron Leftwich, QB Pittsburgh Steelers — If Roethlisberger misses any time with his bruised AC joint, Leftwich should be a capable filler QB in Week 10 against the Colts. Don’t underestimate the Colts passing defense, but to win, the Steelers might have to put some points on the board.

An even better matchup looms large in Week 11 against the Chargers, but I doubt fantasy owners can expect Big Ben to miss that much time. If you just can’t find a QB this week or want to take a chance, keep your eye on the QB situation in Pittsburgh.

Joe Flacco, QB Baltimore Ravens — If you need a quarterback, there are plenty of options this week (see above), but Flacco should be one of the best. He has put up a very good two weeks, and he faces the Texans.

After Week 10 though, he’s probably not worth a roster spot with an intimidating run against the Giants, Eagles, Bengals, Redskins, Steelers and Cowboys.

Yeah, if you don’t need him this week, just keep an eye on him in case miracle juice starts spraying out of his arm after Week 10.

Brent Celek, TE Philadelphia Eagles — So he’s more than just a backup…maybe? Celek, much like Billy Miller, now makes an intriguing fill as long as L.J. Smith is hurt. Smith is expected to make his return in Week 10, but he is currently still listed as questionable.

If he doesn’t go, Celek could get the start against the Giants, ranked second against the pass, and even if Smith is healthy, we’ll have to see how much the Week 9 franchise record-setting performance helped Celek’s stock with the Philly coaching staff.

Consistency is hard to find in the Philly offense, but Celek is worth keeping an eye on if you need depth at the tight end position.

Desmond Clark, TE Chicago Bears — Greg Olsen is to Kyle Orton as Desmond Clark is to Rex Grossman. Rexy just likes the big guy better, and word on the street is that the Chicago passing game might move back to using the tight ends more as short-range options.

Keep your eye on Clark to see how much he factors in. We know Rex will have to escape quite a bit against the Titans in Week 10 and the Vikings in Week 13 until Kyle Orton comes back under the helm.

But even if he finds success with Rex, Clark’s not a playoff depth option when Kyle Orton returns.

Derek Fine, TE Buffalo Bills — Fine is one “fine” tight end (Forgive me) if you just look at his 43-yard, one touchdown stat line from Week 9, but the rest of this season, he’s put up blanks.

If Buffalo involves him in the offense more frequently than the other TEs now that they are lacking a dependable No. 2 receiving threat, Fine could continue to be “fine.” (Sorry, again — they flow out like candy.) Keep your eye on him in Week 10 against the Patriots.

Defenses to watch for the fantasy playoffs:

Arizona Cardinals D/ST — STL, MIN, @NE for a defense that has been deadly at home.

Miami Dolphins D/ST — @BUF, SF, KC with a sack machine coming on strong and an improving secondary.

Ignoring

Cedric Benson, RB Cincinnati Bengals — 100+ yards?!? And a score? The saddest part of Benson’s Week 9 performance was that it was only the third 100+ yard game of his career. THIRD. That’s just crazy.

Unfortunately, unless your playoff bound, he probably won’t ever do it again for you. He faces off against the Eagles, Steelers and Ravens after returning from a bye in Week 10. Sad but true.

The only good matchups remaining on his plate are the Colts in Week 14 (who just got back Bob Sanders) and the Browns in Week 16 — come on, you playing Benson for your championship game. If you have a Week 17 championship game though, he does face the Chiefs, and that could be a worthy start.

Unless you’re going to the playoffs, you can probably safely drop this one-week wonder or wait to see what happens against the Titans. Geesh.

Peyton Hillis, RB Denver Broncos — He caught a lot of passes in Week 9 (116 yards and a TD), but it’s hard to see that happening again this season.

Then again, I guess I said the same thing after Leonard Weaver had his day for Seattle. Shanahan could use his evil force powers on this one and make Hillis the feature back in Week 10, but I still stand by ignoring him as a waiver wire pickup.

If Shanahan makes him worth something, he’s likely to be gone as quickly as he came…I hope. Torain is the guy I would grab from Denver.

Koren Robinson, WR Seattle Seahawks — I think that was a miracle play for the Seahawks, and lightning is not likely strike twice in the same spot. That’s a fact.

Droppables

Rather than make this article cross any further into the 3000+ word realm, I’ll end here, but if you have any questions about who you should drop to get any of these guys, you know what to do!

Hint: Drop them in the comments!

Week 6 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

It’s about time some of the fantasy studs broke out this year. This week has some matchups to watch. If you ‘bought low’ on guys like Ryan Grant and Maurice Jones-Drew, picked up Deuce McAllister or drafted Bernard Berrian for depth, this week should show you what they’re worth.

For those of you who may have missed the first few weeks of the start or sit breakdown here at the Fools, the “Hot Hands” are players you definitely want to start while “Cold Shoulders” are bums that should leave you hanging this week. The “Bubble Boys” classification points out guys that are somewhere in the middle. They may be (and usually are) good starts, but I still have some concerns about them this week. If you feel that they are your best option, go ahead and start them.

As usual, I’ll be answering sit/start questions in the comments up until the game time on Sunday. I should get to questions by Saturday night or Sunday morning — heading to Dallas for the Red River Rivalry (Texas vs. OU) and a wedding. Who gets married on OU weekend?

Hot Hands

Brett Favre, QB Jets vs. Bengals — He won’t throw six touchdowns, but I think it’s safe to say that Favre should take advantage of the Bengals secondary even if the Jets work on establishing the running game in this one.

David Garrard, QB Jaguars vs. Broncos — He’s had two good weeks and demonstrated that the Jags passing game can produce. He’ll have to show it again against the Broncos if they plan on winning this one.

Kyle Orton, QB Chicago vs. Falcons — Orton is getting more and more done in the passing game. I’d give him a start if you don’t have better options. This week, he gets to take on Atlanta after Rodgers just torched them for three TDs last week.

Ryan Grant, RB Packers vs. Seahawks — He’s had a pretty miserable season thus far, but coming into camp late because of a holdout and then getting injured will do that to you. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry last week and is angry he hasn’t broken one long yet this season like he did all last year. This week against the Seahawks would be a great opportunity for him to return to form against and underperforming defense and control the clock for the Packers.

LeRon McClain, RB Ravens vs. Colts — The Colts can’t stop the run, and McGahee can’t stay healthy. McClain CAN take full advantage of that situation. Even if McGahee hits the field again, there should be plenty of running to go around. The Ravens will try to give Peyton Manning as little time on the field as possible.

Clinton Portis, RB Redskins vs. Rams — Not that you would be sitting one of the best backs through the first five weeks, but I felt obligated to list him just so I could say again how terrible the Rams are. The only danger with Portis is that the passing game scores before he can. I think he’ll get his chances.

Ronnie Brown, RB Dolphins vs. Texans — The ‘Wildcat’ has been ruining opposing defenses the last several weeks. The Dolphins will keep using the formation until someone can stop it. I don’t think that the Texans are that someone.

Deuce McAllister, RB Saints vs. Raiders — Reggie Bush had his big game last week, but Deuce is due. While Oakland’s cornerbacks may be slacking, they should be able to cut a few plays off short of the end zone. Deuce is the battering ram that will get those TDs. I like him to see touches this game with a defense soft on the run.

Steve Slaton, RB Texans vs. Dolphins — On the other side of the ball, Slaton should have a good day against Miami. The Dolphins have been surprisingly decent against the run this year, but the Texans should find a way to get the ball in his hands and involve him the passing game so that he still has a good day for fantasy owners. Schaub will want to ease back into the game slowly coming off his illness, and Slaton will be his crutch.

Bernard Berrian, WR Vikings vs. Lions — Berrian had his season highs in catches, yards and touchdowns last week against the Saints and went over 100 yards for the first time this season. He should continue to see plenty of looks against the Lions since Sidney Rice is still out for this one. This week should be the week to start him.

Santana Moss, WR Redskins vs. Rams — Again, the only concern you should have about starting Moss is whether or not Portis will break every other carry for a long touchdown. That’s a good concern to have.

Jerricho Cotchery, WR Jets vs. Bengals — Cotchery should be the stretch man for Favre in this one, and the Bengals won’t be shutting down Cotchery or Coles on passing plays. For the sake of padding stats, Favre’s gotta hit Cotchery for a score. Coles remains a good start as well.

Washington Redskins D/ST vs. Rams — We’re really picking on the Rams here. If you need a bye week fill for defense this week, the Redskins should be a top option facing one of the worst offenses in football. St. Louis shouldn’t put many points up on this unit that has been holding back the Eagles and Cowboys offensive powerhouses the last two weeks.

Bubble Boys

J.T. O’Sullivan, QB 49ers vs. Eagles — We’ve seen O’Sullivan take the hits and still make the plays, but this week, the hits might be too much for him. The Eagles should attack, attack and attack while keeping a lock on Isaac Bruce, O’Sullivan’s hottest target thus far. For O’Sullivan to have a good game, Bryant Johnson and other supporting cast members will have to step up.

Gus Frerotte, QB Vikings vs. Lions — Don’t get me wrong. Frerotte is still worth a start if you need him, and I think he will give Berrian a good day. I only put him on the bubble because you have to worry that Peterson will go off. I don’t think that the Vikings will abandon the run, so I would peg him for a conservatively good day.

Eli Manning, QB Giants vs. Browns — Eli has led one of the most powerful offenses in football this season, but I have some concerns this week. With Plax returning, will there be tension in the passing game? And will the Giants really get a chance to open up the passing game with all their powerful runners? I think Eli is still a solid start, but if you have another stud, you might consider them. Post a comment below if you are having a tough time making the call.

Peyton Manning, QB Colts vs. Ravens — Both Manning brothers are bubble boys this week. While Peyton would normally be a lock as a start after his bye has passed, the Colts still seem like a struggling offense. The offensive line is holding them back severely. I’d still take a chance on Manning to do it all against the Ravens, but don’t be shocked if he posts another low week.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jaguars vs. Broncos — On paper, this matchup looks great, but I’m still apprehensive about starting MJD after the Broncos held Warrick Dunn and Earnest Graham relatively in check. I’d still start him in this one, but don’t demand a huge performance. The Jags may have to abandon the run to keep pace if Cutler and the Broncos explode.

Cold Shoulders

Derek Anderson, QB Browns vs. Giants — Anderson practiced being comfortable on his back this week because he’ll be taking a lot of hits here against the Giants. They’ll come at him all day long. I don’t think it’ll be pretty.

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, RB Panthers vs. Buccaneers — Riding the hot hand with Williams this week? Don’t. The Bucs have a stout defense against the run, and they should keep the score low just like their game with the Broncos last week. While I am sure one team will have success running the ball, I can’t say which will win the day. I think you should be able to find a more definite start at RB. If not, I’d put Stewart ahead of Williams.

All Detroit Lions vs. Vikings — We’re not really sure who’s starting at quarterback for the Lions since Kitna may be out, and that uncertainty takes the Detroit passing game down several notches as Orlovsky and Drew Stanton still need to settle into the position before they’re worth a fantasy start. The run stoppers on Minnesota won’t let Kevin Smith or Rudi Johnson go anywhere. This week could be a lot of goose eggs for your Lions.

Jamal Lewis, RB Browns vs. Giants — The Browns passing game isn’t doing enough this season to take pressure off of Lewis, and the Giants are going to go after Anderson all day. I don’t think Lewis gets many opportunities, and I don’t see him doing much with the ones he does get.

Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR Bengals vs. Jets — With Carson Palmer sitting this weekend, you really are taking a big chance starting either of these guys. While it might be a shootout, Fitzpatrick is more likely to turn the ball over than score when he goes long.

Martin Gramatica, K Saints vs. Raiders — Okay, this one is just a joke. Gramatica is on IR, but his injury is probably more to his pride and reputation than his leg. Looks like I was right in thinking he would be gone by Friday.

Not Starting Due to Injury

Note that the latest reports have Brian Westbrook, Carson Palmer, Reggie Brown, Deion Branch, Tony Scheffler and Anquan Boldin sitting out this week. Jon Kitna, Brian Griese, Matt Hasselbeck and Kellen Winslow might also miss. Keep your eye on injury reports Sunday morning.

Sleepers

Zach Miller, TE Raiders vs. Saints — Miller ended last season as JaMarcus Russell’s most trustworthy target. He’s looking like he might lead the team in receptions this season, so he’s worth taking a look at this week. Russell could look for him down the field when the Raiders need a score to match the Saints.

Miami Dolphins D/ST vs. Texans — If all of the good defenses are taken, you could do much worse than the Dolphins. They’ve held up against the Chargers and Patriots. The Texans should have Schaub back under center, but that shouldn’t keep Miami from getting some sacks and turnovers to keep the score low in this one.

Having trouble setting your roster this week? Post your questions down below if you would like the Fools to help you out.

On the Wire: Waiver Wire Gems from Week 3

Apparently, when you try and make things faster around here, it makes the Internet explode, and bad things happen. I’ll write that down, and, I guess, take it as a compliment that we’ve had such a large flow of traffic around at Fools lately.

I’ll try not to break anything else, okay?

The waiver wire starts to thin this week, but alas, here come the dreaded bye weeks. Every fantasy owner has probably seen how bad they can be, and they’ve fortified their teams to make up for it. Here are a few guys that might have slipped under the radar until now.

J.T. O’Sullivan, QB San Francisco 49ers

This guy needs a nickname. He just has too much punctuation in that name, so from now on, I dub thee JTO, Mr. O’Sullivan. If your league is sleeping on this guy, don’t. O’Sullivan is a Mike Martz quarterback. He’s going to take his hits, but he is also going to put up a 300+ yard game when he has a good matchup. If he has one of those during your current starting QBs bye week, he’s worth putting on your roster. His high risk, high reward play should pay off for fantasy owners hurting from Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson and Peyton Manning — oh, and that Tom Brady guy. This week, he faces off against the New Orleans Saints’ unimpressive secondary.

Brian Griese, QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

He threw a lot of balls for Tampa Bay on Sunday — no, that’s not what she said. I don’t think he puts up 407 yards and two touchdowns each week without overtime, but he’s worth getting on your roster now. If his plentiful passing attempts continue, he could be fantasy-worthy where Jeff Garcia was only a capable fantasy backup QB. Griese definitely takes on high-end backup status now with the potential to do more when you need him (against Detroit, Minnesota, New Orleans and Atlanta).

Jerramy Stevens, TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’m not exactly sure how he got off parole long enough to leave Seattle, but his return from suspension in Tampa Bay showed his effectiveness. With Galloway out and healing slowly, Stevens could be a factor in the passing game. It’s not like the Bucs have a herd of big name receivers. Stevens is one of those physically imposing guys like Vernon Davis who promise a great deal as a tight end. Unlike Davis though, Stevens could be consistent with Brian Griese finding him when it counts like in Week 3. I mean, at least we know he gets his hands dirty.

Dustin Keller, TE New York Jets

Brett Favre likes the rookie tight end even though Keller has a veteran squad in Chris Baker and Bubba Franks ahead of him on the depth chart. Late in the San Diego game, Keller was getting open and brought in a late touchdown. If you are hurting at TE, Keller might be worth a look — especially when the Jets play strong passing defenses that will lock out Jerricho Cotchery and that touchdown-stealing Chansi Stuckey.

Anthony Fasano, TE Miami Dolphins

Don’t you….dun dun da dun dun…forget about him. He might be Ronnie Brown’s favorite target.

Domenik Hixon, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith, WR New York Giants

They have a bye this week, but in Week 5, the Giants will be without Plaxico Burress for his INSUBORDINATION. I’m not sure what Plaxico did for those two days that he missed practice, but insubordination is a great word. Look for Toomer and Steve Smith to step up, but Hixon, who had a three touchdown performance in the preseason, could go wild again in place of the absent receiver. A good game in Week 5 could earn Steve Smith and Hixon more looks.

Correll Buckhalter, RB Philadelphia Eagles

Go on! Be a vulture! Don’t you see the bird circling the Westbrook owner in your league? Westbrook is only listed as day-to-day, so there’s no guarantee that he won’t take the field. If you are seriously hurtin’ at RB or are playing against the Westbrook owner in your league this week, it might be worth stashing Buckhalter. Remember that the Eagles play the Bears this week though, so don’t expect a Thanksgiving turkey to just fall in your lap. Westbrook owners, get him if you can. On the bright side, I don’t think Westbrook will miss more than one game — if he misses any at all.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB Pittsburgh Steelers

The fantasy football gods are smiling on the folks who are hurting at RB this week. Mike Tomlin even did the fantasy football players a favor by letting us all know PRE-waivers that Willie Parker wouldn’t be going on Monday night. Mendenhall will get his first start, but he hasn’t just dominated like everyone thought he would coming into this season — and there’s that thing he has about fumbling. He’s worth putting on your roster if you have Parker or if your alternative is Ahman Green. Limit your expectation against Baltimore on Monday night. It could be another low-scoring, defensive affair for the Steelers.

Rudi Johnson, RB Detroit Lions

Oh boy, did you see that great game that Rudi had against the 49ers! Now, let me break down what I just said: Rudi had one great game against the 49ers. He’s still splitting time at RB even though he seems to have won some points with the coaching staff after his 131 total yards and a touchdown this week. Both teams were running the ball pretty well, and I’ll give you that Rudi has the hot hand. Still, I am not a true believer. When you get cut from an NFL franchise that is hurtin’ terribly for some movement on offense, you must have a defect besides your high bill.

You can pick him up if you are lacking at RB, but don’t go dropping anybody major (see: anyone with less fluke potential). It remains to be seen how much the Lions will even be able to run the ball this year when they give up 21 points just by starting the game clock. There’s always garbage time?

Michael Bush, RB Oakland Raiders

Role is not certain right now for Bush, but with Fargas hurt, he’s a must grab. I like him almost as much as I like McFadden, and Bush could end up being a big TD vulture to McFadden’s flashy runs similar to how LenDale White and Chris Johnson work.

Brandon Lloyd, WR Chicago Bears

Chicago is where receivers go to die, but maybe, Chicago just makes all wideouts the inverse. Stay with me here. If you were a good WR and went to Chicago, you got pretty bad, BUT if you were a bad WR or a “Wait, who?” wide receiver, now you have a chance.

Lloyd seems to be benefiting from when Kyle Orton, lacking in the neck beard department this season, throws one out there. He’s had five and six receptions respectively in the last two weeks with 124 yards and a score this past week. He just might be a decent WR3 option at this point when the Neckbeard, ahem, excuse me, Kyle Orton is passing the ball against weak defenses — they still probably won’t let him come out to play much against the good guys.

Matt Jones, WR Jacksonville Jaguars

Sigh…he’s made the jump. I really hoped I could ignore the coke fiend until he dropped off the map, but he really does seem like he can carry a role in the passing offense for Jacksonville this year. If what they are saying is true, the pass-first offense in Jacksonville that Garrard could lead after their bye week rest could utilize a guy like Jones-y. Pick him up if you need him; just don’t talk to me about him.

Bobby Engram and Deion Branch, WR Seattle Seahawks

They are supposed to return Week 5, but Branch might be seen in Week 4. If they aren’t on a roster, make it so. Hasselbeck needs them like I need cake, and I NEED cake.

Ones to Watch — Guys to be cautious about, but get them if you need them

Damon Huard, QB Kansas City Chiefs

It’s Huard’s turn to try and right the ship for Kansas City. Thigpen didn’t “wow” with his INT-heavy performance last week. Huard is still an emergency or bye week option unless he has Dwayne Bowe on his fantasy team. You don’t really want to have Chiefs on your fantasy team unless you’re forced into it. My deepest condolences to all the Kansas City Chiefs’ mothers playing fantasy.

Trent Green, QB St. Louis Rams

Well, if you were impressed by what Bulger could do in this offense, wait until you see what Green can do. I think there’s already an over/under in Vegas for how many snaps he gets to take before his next — and possibly final — concussion. Green playing for the Rams might be the worst player decision (from a health standpoint) all season — including Merriman almost playing the entire season on a floating pile of knee.

Billy Miller, TE New Orleans Saints

Miller benefits from Shockey being injured, but he won’t do much for fantasy. He’s worth keeping an eye on while Shockey and Colston are down and out, you know, for kicks or something.

LeRon McClain, RB Baltimore Ravens

Another “wait and see” sort of guy that you can jump on now if you need some RB help. He carried some of the load while McGahee was out, and he got another decent dose on Sunday when McGahee got cut (as in bleeding, not from the team). As long as the starting two RBs (McGahee and Ray Rice) don’t turn into big bleeders, McClain will probably drop back into a TD vulture or short yardage guy. We know that the Ravens are going to run the ball A LOT with Flacco under center, so he’s got some value in the range of Michael Pittman, which isn’t terrible at the moment. Two touchdowns is nothing to forget about.

Miles Austin, WR Dallas Cowboys

You guys know that I don’t think a ton of popcorn-fingers Patrick Crayton. Austin’s a speed guy and more likely to assume a complimentary role to Terrell Owens than Sam Hurd, who T.O. sort of took under his wing as his backup. Crayton won’t disappear, but Austin could take looks away from Crayton when the Cowboys put three receivers on the field. Miles racked up 152 yards and a score on just two receptions. His big play ability could earn him fantasy WR3 status.

Antonio Bryant, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers

His value is dependent upon Brian Griese throwing as much as he did and Galloway’s injury. Two factors against your potential make you watch-worthy rather than snag-worthy. He assumes Galloway’s value as long as he’s a starter — not too shabby the way Griese is throwing. Take him if you are a Galloway owner, but you might be able to wait otherwise. He did have 138 yards against Chicago.

Justin McCareins, WR Tennessee Titans

If he is healthy and Justin Gage remains out this week, he might be the best receiving option the Titans have, which makes him pretty far down the list but he runs out on the field and tries to catch the ball. If you have a bye week in a deep league, you might not be able to be picky.

Jordy Nelson, WR Green Bay Packers

I got my eye on you, kid. Show me what those big hands can do, and you just might make a squad as my WR3.

And because rumors make friends in fantasy football…

Brady Quinn, QB Cleveland Browns

If Derek Anderson can’t get it done against Cincinnati, it might be the final nail in his fluke coffin. Quinn might get his shot.

Dan Orlovsky or Drew Stanton, QB Detroit Lions

Kitna hurt his knee in the last game, and the Lions might actually start looking towards the future. Orlovsky is the next guy in line, but Stanton’s got that bold “I’m supposed to be your guy” quality that screams “rebuilding.” In the immediate future, Orlovsky probably gets the judgment call in this one and tries to make up the 21-point deficit for the Lions. If you are deep at QB with a roster spot to spare, stash and grab. Whoever starts in Detroit is worthy of fantasy consideration just because they have so much invested in their passing game.

No one’s really worth ignoring at this point, so let’s talk…

Guys you should have taken by now:

Steve Slaton, RB Houston Texans — could be the guy in Houston moving forward

Chris Perry, RB Cincinnati Bengals – getting most of the carries and scored against two tough defenses already this season

Guys you can consider dropping:

Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers — Where are those two TE sets of dominance Mike Martz? Vernon Davis is not a starting TE anymore. Two big games with no-show performances. Bench until further notice or replace.

Ted Ginn, Jr., WR Miami Dolphins — I don’t think he knows he plays. Maybe he is just outrunning Pennington’s arm? If you can do better on the wire, you should.

Vince Young, QB Tennessee Titans – As much as I like him, you can afford to let him hang in the wind a few weeks until the QB situation shakes out for the Titans

Justin Fargas, RB Oakland Raiders – Injury or no injury, he might never get back on the field with Bush/McFadden there to tear things up

Alge Crumpler, RE Tennessee Titans — If you can find him on your roster, you are doing better than the Titans. They can’t find him on the field.

Kenny Watson, RB Cincinnati Bengals — not really threatening Chris Perry much right now

Kevin Jones, RB Chicago Bears — all they know is Forte in Chicago

Courtney Taylor, WR Seattle Seahawks — you know what will happen when Engram and Branch return