Don’t get all reactionary when you are setting your lineups this week. If your stud disappointed in his first showing — and there is no evidence supporting his failure, i.e. horrible line in Jacksonville and St. Louis — just forget Week 1 happened.
This week, we’ll move into more of a Q&A mode with the start-or-sit recommendations. No matter how many people I name, you will always have a call between two players that I don’t address. Here’s your chance.
Chris Johnson vs. Bengals: If you thought he looked good against Jacksonville…
Brandon Jacobs, Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress vs. Rams: Big Boy make ‘em pay. Eli and Plax should connect a few times just as McNabb did with everyone on his team last week.
Derek Anderson vs. Steelers: When these two teams play each other, the QBs have a habit of going off.
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Browns: Same as Derek Anderson.
Ryan Grant vs. Lions: Ryan Grant vs. Lions, Ryan Grant vs. Lions. I’m just going to keep repeating it. It’s the Lions. They let Michael Turner run through them like Red Rover. As long as Grant starts, he will look big in this one — injured hammy and all.
While I am at it…
All Your Packers vs. Lions: Again, IT’S DETROIT. Everyone but Donald Lee is worthy of throwing in your lineup unless you have studs that outrank them.
Brian Griese vs. Falcons: Because there’s talk that Jeff Garcia might be getting traded, because Atlanta corners don’t scare me, because if I was faster, I might be able to start at corner for Atlanta and because he was worthy of starting last year when he was with the Bears. The Bucs have a better receiver group.
Jerricho Cotchery vs. Patriots: Clearly, he’s a favorite target of Brett Favre, and he’s had success in New England. The Jets want to win this one and Cotchery will be a big part of it.
Bills defense vs. Jaguars: Looked creative and aggressive against Seattle. Marcus Stroud should be looking for a nice “reminder” game — as in, remind the Jags why they never should have let him go. I’m scared.
Felix Jones vs. Eagles: Marion Barber hurt his ribs in Week 1. Jones scored a TD in that one. I see him getting more chances this week.
Bubble Boys
Philip Rivers vs. Broncos: Yes, Rivers has a great record in Denver, but I don’t like him this week. LaDainian’s best buddy is probably going to watch L.T. blow through the Denver run defense so badly and limit Rivers’ opportunities. If San Diego gets down in this one like I believe they might, he could turn it on, but my gut feeling is that he has a TD and a few yards. Surely, you drafted him as a QB2, so you can probably bench him in favor of your stud QB as long as your stud has a great matchup as well.
Damon Huard vs. Raiders: I know Oakland gave up every yard that Jay Cutler wanted last week, but that was Jay Cutler. This is Damon Huard. The corners might redeem themselves, but if you lost Tom Brady or Vince Young, you might not have better options.
Jay Cutler vs. Chargers: Cutler hasn’t had a lot of good games against San Diego, but he looks stronger this year. Having Brandon Marshall back from suspension, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler won’t hurt either. If he’s your best guy this week, why not give him a chance?
Lee Evans vs. Jaguars: Evans should be a solid WR2 or WR3 this year. If the Buffalo offense keeps this up, he might even warrant WR1 status in bigger leagues. Unfortunately, Jacksonville knows that he is a weapon and will probably lock him down this week if they can. Start him as a WR3 if you must, but don’t count on a huge week.
Tony Scheffler vs. Chargers: I’m going to go out on a wild card here and say Tony Scheffler is an okay start this week. Cutler faces one of the toughest defenses (without their best defensive player) and Scheffler might see the red zone targets if Brandon Marshall doesn’t finish all his catches in the red zone.
Cold Shoulders
Steve Slaton and Chris Taylor vs. Ravens: The Texans looked miserable against the Steelers. Do you really think they change that against the Ravens? No. That’s the answer.
Any Rams not named Steven Jackson or Randy McMichael vs. Giants: Not worth starting until they have an offense. Randy McMichael is an exception since it looks like he will be the only productive thing on offense, and you know Marc Bulger is going to want to get rid of the ball quickly to avoid shattered ribs.
Eagles defense vs. Cowboys: It’s hard to get sacks against the Cowboys, and this one could be high scoring. While the Cowboys defense might weather the storm, I don’t think Philadelphia will fare as well.
Well, that just sucks. Thanks, Week 1. Today being Patriot Day just seems to be an even more depressing reminder of the losses in real life and our slightly much less important fantasy football losses.
Screen capture from ESPN.com of Patriot fan on Brady injury
If you were one of the lucky fantasy footballers who lost Tom Brady this past weekend, I assume I just caught you wallowing in your own self-pity, eating a cheeseburger off the floor between fits of crying, alcoholism and throwing Cheetos…
Don’t get up. I’ll squat down to your level.
You probably don’t even feel like waking up anymore. You thought you had this incredible season of fantasy football coming together — Tom Brady leading an UNSTOPPABLE fantasy force — but it’s all come crashing down. We should have known better when Bernard Pollard started dating Tonya Harding.
This Matt Cassel kid doesn’t exactly have the resume to jump right into replacing your first round fantasy draft pick, and you might have even missed out on him in your waiver wire this week. Have you looked at the waiver wire besides Cassel? Neckbeard (A.K.A Kyle Orton) and Damon Huard don’t exactly inspire confidence.
If you’re wire was full of guys like Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner, Jon Kitna or even Trent Edwards, you’re lucky and have earned the hatred of us all. Pick up a couple of them or pair one with a capable backup, and you’re not out of the hunt just yet.
For the rest of us, we may need to take a more desperate path. Even if you do snag Cassel off the wire, he’s no guarantee to make your fantasy season. I don’t care if he is throwing to Randy Moss.
The Free Agent Quarterbacks
Looking through the rest of this season’s matchups, I’ve identified a few QBs that are probably floating around as free agents that you can platoon — yes, platoon — to save your season.
By checking the waiver wires in my deepest leagues, I am guessing your options look something like this list: Matt Cassel, Chad Pennington, Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Ryan, Damon Huard (filling in temporarily for Brodie Croyle), Kerry Collins (filling in temporarily for Vince Young), Joe Flacco, J.T. O’Sullivan, JaMarcus Russell and…yes, I’m going to list Kyle Orton. You may be left to rely on Neckbeard.
The highest upside player is, of course, J.T. O’Sullivan. He COULD be the next Mike Martz QB — high risk, high reward — or he could remain a miserable fantasy failure just like Week 1. As a sign of hope, he did complete more than 70 percent of his passes, even if they were only to the tight ends and Frank Gore.
Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and JaMarcus Russell are all new blood at the QB position. They won’t have much flare for the spectacular, but they won’t bomb either. All there QBs value is dependent upon them gaining confidence and becoming a larger part of the game plans.
Damon Huard and Kerry Collins are both guys that can be counted on in a pinch, but they have timers hanging over their heads. Once their respective starters return, they go back to the bench, and you go back to the waiver wire to grab Brodie Croyle (Yikes!) or Vince Young, who might find his happy place while he is sitting the next few weeks.
Chad Pennington might have one of the lowest ceilings of this whole group, but he showed that he can put up fantasy points in Miami in Week 1. I thought he was worth a few starts last year, and I think he will be worth more this year now that he is fully healed with a coaching staff that respects him.
Kyle Orton and Tarvaris Jackson are not game changers. Each has a run game that will take the ball out of their hands, so unless you get points for handoffs, don’t plan on either one exploding each week. Orton is a game manager who might have weeks where he throws a touchdown or two followed by droughts of no TDs at all. Jackson, if he can improve his decision making, could be a decent sleeper several weeks out of the season with Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian, and his ceiling is obviously higher than Neckbeard’s.
Throw in this Matt Cassel kid, who could become a Philip Rivers-ish or Brodie Croyle-ish type of starter, and that’s a pretty good mix of potential — would have use the word talent here, but I am under contract not to use that word when Kyle Orton is involved.
Building Your Platoon
Now that Brady is done, I would assume that most of you have dropped him off your roster and picked up at least one of the QBs listed above (unless you are in a keeper league, which makes this even tougher).
Without Brady, you’ll still need two more spots for QBs. Assuming you have a backup — you drafted a backup for Tom Brady, right? — you’ll only need to drop one more guy from your bench to pickup another QB.
Obviously, don’t let one of your studs go, but if you have a guy that you were just waiting on to be productive, it might be time to give up hope. If you really don’t have anyone you can stand dropping, you might be able to wait this out — these guys aren’t flying onto rosters anytime soon unless they have a huge game. HUGE.
Try to vary your QB selections based upon their matchups. Pick three who work well together for the rest of the season. You’ll want a third QB to fill in the gaps when your first two have bad matchups or incredibly good running matchups.
Matchups to Target
These matchups are loosely based on team defense projections, cornerback ratings and Week 1 performances. Note that if one of these teams like St. Louis (unlikely), Miami, Kansas City, Oakland, Houston or Seattle rebound against the pass attacks, you might want to rethink your strategy going into that week.
Week 2: Flacco vs. Texans, Huard vs. Raiders, Russell vs. Chiefs, Collins vs. Cincinnati, O’Sullivan vs. Seahawks
Obviously, the best matchups in Week 2 are Flacco and Collins. O’Sullivan is a high-risk here, but he could payoff huge.
Week 3: Flacco vs. Browns, Huard vs. Falcons, Collins vs. Texans, Ryan vs. Chiefs, O’Sullivan vs. Detroit, Cassel vs Dolphins
Martz’s revenge game? If O’Sullivan shines, this week would be the week to do it. Huard against ATL corners is promising as is Collins. When the Titans play the Texans, it is usually a good show.
Week 4: Collins vs. Vikings, O’Sullivan vs. Saints
The matchup drought starts here for a few weeks. Flacco or Jackson might be the best options in your platoon to help you weather the storm.
Collins will have to pass against the strong Vikings run defense, so he makes the best pick here. O’Sullivan, if on a roll by now, could also light up the Saints in a high-scoring affair.
Week 5: Orton vs. Lions, Jackson vs. Saints, Cassel vs. 49ers
It’s the Lions. Even Neckbeard should put one up on the Detroit defense. Cassel against the 49ers is a smart play as well.
Week 6: Orton vs. Falcons, Jackson vs. Lions, Pennington vs. Texans
Pennington is my pick for this week, but it’s hard to say who has the better outlook since all three teams could end up just running the ball through these defenses all day.
Week 7: Flacco vs. Dolphins, Collins/Vince Young vs. Chiefs
If Vince Young returns to the starting role, despite his lack of valid WRs, I’d put him as one of the highest potential QBs from here on out. Clearly, 2008 is becoming a make or break year for his career, and sooner or later, the shine he had at Texas is going to prove he is star-worthy in the NFL. (Dear Vince, Don’t you go retiring just to make sausage now that I said that.)
Week 8: Flacco vs. Raiders, O’Sullivan vs. Seahawks, Cassel vs. Rams
O’Sullivan could be heaven-sent by now or out of work. Cassel will probably be able to score at will against the Rams while Flacco might not have the accuracy just yet to expose the Raiders slacking secondary.
Week 9: Flacco vs. Browns, Huard/Croyle vs. Buccaneers, Russell vs. Falcons, Ryan vs. Raiders, Orton vs. Lions, Jackson vs. Texans
By Week 9, we should see what we have in these prospect QBs. One of them might be a worthy starter. I like Russell against the Falcons and Jackson against the Texans.
Week 10: Pennington vs. Seahawks, Ryan vs. Saints
Pennington could be surprising folks with Miami by this point in the season, and Ryan might have found enough of a rapport with his receivers to open up the playbook. They’ll have to against the Saints.
Week 11: Russell vs. Dolphins, Collins/Young vs. Jaguars, O’Sullivan vs. Rams
Russell should slice up the Dolphins if he’s got his long ball locked in by Week 11, but Young and O’Sullivan present explosive options. I know Young faces the Jags, but it’ll probably be a competitive game since both might be struggling for top positions in the AFC. Young will have to make things happen through the air.
Week 12: Ryan vs. Panthers, Orton vs. Rams, Cassel vs. Dolphins
Can Neckbeard unleash his beast on the Rams? (That’s what she said.) Cassel against the Dolphins is my pick here, but Ryan and Orton are potential slam dunks as well.
Week 13: Flacco vs. Bengals, Croyle vs. Raiders, Russell vs. Chiefs, Pennington vs. Rams
Finally, someone gets to play the BENGALS. Croyle is not likely to lace it in there against the Raiders, but Pennington should blow apart the Rams in Week 13. I don’t care if he launches the football with a rubber band.
Week 14: Young vs. Browns, Ryan vs. Saints, Jackson vs. Lions, Cassel vs. Seahawks
Dear Lord. Did you consider what you would do if you make the playoffs with this save? First of all, if you get here, make all checks payable to me and send immediately. Thank you.
Jackson and Cassel look like golden boys, but Ryan and Young could both expose the defenses if they are at the top of their game. I like Young being able to make some moves in this one and get a lot of time on offense from Cleveland turnovers.
Week 15: Young vs. Texans, Orton vs. Saints, O’Sullivan vs. Dolphins, Pennington vs. 49ers, Cassel vs. Raiders
Lights out in Houston when Vince Young returns to town. Pennington and O’Sullivan should both go off, and Orton might HAVE to get called into duty to get something to Devin Hester against the Saints.
Week 16: Croyle vs. Dolphins, Russell vs. Texans, Ryan vs. Vikings, Jackson vs. Falcons, O’Sullivan vs. Rams, Pennington vs. Chiefs
Huge amount of nice matchups, and it could matter to you considering this might be your championship game. The Vikings might be fighting for a Wild Card, but Ryan could still light them up in the secondary. Jackson could do the same to the two high school corners on the Falcons. If Mike Martz makes a man out of O’Sullivan, might he destroy the Rams and bring you a trophy?
Week 17 (Heaven Forbid): Croyle vs. Bengals, Ryan vs. Rams, Orton vs. Texans, Pennington vs. Jets (Rematch!)
If your commish schedules your championship week in Week 17, slap him/her. Open fist. Just slap ‘em.
At least you have a few decent matchups with Ryan against the Rams and Pennington against the Jets. Pennington will still want to show the Jets what they gave away, and I am sure he wouldn’t mind knocking the Jets out of the playoffs and/or taking their morale down a notch right before they go into the playoffs.
Now that you feel better…
How about a video that RotoHog just sent me? (Note: It’s graphic for Tom Brady fans. Look away and earmuffs!)
Yeah, that’ll pretty much bring you back down to previous levels of depression. Bummer, but hey, I have to stop you from getting too giddy before you start getting excited at the thought of an Eli Manning injury that would allow you to start David Carr.
Why did you take Brady off the injury report Belichick? Why Belichick? WHY?!?!?
This football season, our highly-respected Best Bets feature (Hint: Don’t ever start betting in Week 16) will be replaced by a column we are going to call A fool and his money… where two compulsive online gamblers will go head-to-head picking the NFL spreads for the entire regular season.
These two moderately delusional individuals will include analysis on each game to help you understand the thought process behind their decisions — including live transcripts of the voices in their head — and trash talk each other’s weekly picks and overall record.
As a teaser for the upcoming column on Week 1 and an introduction to Nick and Chadam, here are their picks for tonight’s game.
Oh, and don’t worry. They’ve already turned in their win totals to me. There will be no cheating based upon the results of the game tonight.
GIANTS (-4) over Redskins: Talk about a lack of respect for the defending champs. I am in the camp that believes in the year-after curse for Super Bowl champs (The Steelers in 2006 are a good example) unless they prove otherwise.
That defense is a shadow of last year’s squad, and I can see Plax not trying as hard to stay on the field for all 16 games this year. That being said, Jason Campbell looked awful this preseason, and I think he’s another year from breaking out.
The Giant’s offensive cogs haven’t played enough games yet to be injured (I’m looking at you, Brandon Jacobs), so I think they’ll put enough points on the board to stay comfortably ahead the entire game.
Look for Nick and Chadam’s picks for overall team records and the remaining Week 1 picks later this weekend.
*The people rejoice* *Crowds cheer and applause* *Small baby thrown in air*
Someone catch that baby! *Baby caught inside beer* YES!
The defending Super Bowl Champions, the New York Giants, face off against the Washington Redskins tonight. What will the lesser Manning of the mighty Mannings do?
More than likely, he’ll look a little rough around the edges since the Super Bowl win — especially if Jason Taylor gets in there for the Redskins. Eli Manning didn’t have a good showing last time he played the Redskins — and by not good, I mean worst completion percentage of the season bad. Starting off a new season and playing at home (where the Giants were iffy last year), you might find a better option to start rather than Manning.
Guys I like tonight
Brandon Jacobs: Unless Washington’s D steps up here, they’ve been looking like Swiss cheese in the preseason. Look for Jacobs to barrel through the Redskins line for more than just tough yardage and scores. Ahmad Bradshaw with significant time could do damage as well, but Jacobs is the show tonight.
Clinton Portis: The weakened Giants defense should see a lot of Portis flying around them. He’s definitely worth the start considering how high you drafted him.
Plaxico Burress: Manning is probably going to air it out a few times this game. Plax won’t be hurt by any INTs Manning throws, so unlike Manning, he’s a good start tonight.
Guys at risk tonight
Santana Moss: Last season, Moss was a weekly call as a starter depending on the matchup. He could blow up in Zorn’s new offense, or he could stay a borderline WR2 or WR3. He’s worth a shot in this opener, but if you have better options, I wouldn’t blame you if you sat him once to see what you got.
Giants defense: They lost a bunch of starters. Did you not know that? Like 22 of 53 sacks worth of them. I sit back on these guys if I have another defense, but they are your one and only, they are an okay start here.
Amani Toomer: He’s old. Did you really draft him? Start only in a deep league.
Guys I strongly dislike who smell bad tonight
Rest of Washington receivers: Wait-and-see approach on this one. I like Moss if you want to take a risk, but the others are probably not worth starting.
Jason Campbell: The Giants lost their two biggest sack masters, but they still have this guy named Justin Tuck and that other guy named Mathias Kiwanuka. More than likely, Campbell is your backup, but if you have him in a starting QB rotation, ROTATE!
Eli Manning: He’s doesn’t like playing the Redskins, and he has been inconsistent at home. Don’t put your hopes on Eli to blow it up this week unless he’s your best QB option.
Washington defense: It’s possible you drafted the Redskins D because of Jason Taylor, but this unit is not one of the best. I wouldn’t start them tonight, and I’d get rid of them if you can. They’re in the tough NFC East. Go get yourself a sleeper D like Arizona or Buffalo.
We’ll have the rest of our highlights later this week. Start/sit questions for tonight or this weekend are welcome in the comments.
Prompted by many an unruly quarterback (QB) ranker online these days, I’ve compiled my current top 12 list of fantasy QBs.
For the most part, I base these rankings off of projected stats for 2008, but considering these top 12 are also going to be the first QBs you want to draft, reliability and consistency has to count for something.
1. Tom Brady – Patriots
Brady tops the list because he was a stat monster last year, but I have doubts he will repeat. Still, he stays on top because that’s where you will have to pick him if you want him on your fantasy team this year.
2. Tony Romo – Cowboys
Romo led the second-ranked, high-powered offense of the Cowboys in 2007 and is poised to repeat. All his weapons return plus a few more.
3. Peyton Manning – Colts
Manning consistently tops the fantasy QB lists and deserves it. Regardless of the health of Marvin Harrison, the Colts offense lives off of Peyton Manning’s arm. He puts up the fantasy points to prove it too. Consider him the 2B to Romo. He only drops to B because his receivers might be in flux this year behind Reggie Wayne.
4. Drew Brees – Saints
The Saints had the most passing attempts in 2007 — by a loooong shot. With an improved running game and possibly a defense in 2008, Brees could settle down and be more efficient, but for now, he has the potential to be here at the top if his receivers catch as much as he throws.
5. Carson Palmer – Bengals
Unless he loses his receivers this off-season, Palmer has the ability to quarterback one of the most potent passing offenses in the NFL. The Bengals habit of getting in shootouts because of their poor defense always makes him a good bet to be high-scoring. He will have an improved defense…but it’s still the Bengals.
6. Derek Anderson – Browns
The Donte Stallworth addition gives him the ingredients that Brady had last year plus a more dangerous tight end. Anderson could tear it up in 2008, but he will have to improve his accuracy so he doesn’t put up so many interceptions.
7. Ben Roethlisberger – Steelers
Big Ben proved he was a top talent at QB in 2007 by breaking out the TD arm. Of course, he kind of had to with Willie Parker’s inability to get it in the endzone. With more weapons for the offense, including his big target receiver in Limas Sweed, Big Ben should repeat and could put even more TDs up. My guess is that Rashard Mendenhall still keeps them running hard-nosed in some scoring situations.
8. Donovan McNabb – Eagles
Before he became so plagued with injuries, McNabb would have been ranked much higher, but 2007 was still a disappointing, inconsistent season for him. Barring injury and with the improvement of the receivers around him — I’m talking about your Reggie Brown — McNabb could return to form. The addition of DeSean Jackson doesn’t hurt.
9. Matt Hasselbeck – Seahawks
The Seahawks receivers are damaged (Deion Branch), old (Bobby Engram) or gone (DJ Hackett). It’s Nate Burleson and Seattle’s pack of young guys who will have to step up this year if he is to be successful. For now, I’ll keep an optimistic outlook against my nature and put him inside the top 10.
10. Jay Cutler – Broncos
His big arm potential puts him here, but many questions surround Cutler this season. He should see significant improvement now that his diabetes has been identified, but he faces another hard schedule in 2008. Questions surround his leading receiver, Brandon Marshall, but Marshall is also poised for his breakout third year — if you believe in that stuff. Promising tight end Tony Scheffler is still plagued by his foot injury. Despite all that, I like Cutler for this season, but a safe bet would be to snag a promising QB2 behind him or to platoon him with a crew of greats on your fantasy team.
11. Eli Manning – Giants
If Plaxico Burress was really playing through injury last season, his full health and the improvement of the young pack of WRs the Giants have now — Steve Smith, Sinorice Moss, Mario Manningham — could help Eli for 2008. Note that this is also the point where QBs start to huddle together as far as rankings go and begin to have similar upsides and risks. Note that I also don’t particularly like putting confidence in Eli Manning. Note that I have nothing against the guy…Note that.
12. David Garrard – Jaguars
Garrard plays in a run first, run always offense, but his efficiency makes him a top talent. Many people didn’t realize how reliable a fantasy QB he was last year despite his lack of flash. Take him as a QB1, and you can get crazy with your QB2. You know Garrard isn’t going to lose you any points each week. He has slightly improved WRs for 2008, but Garrard will still hand off more than he throws.
I could go on…but this early in the off-season, let’s stick with just ranking the top 12. These QBs could all have teams based around them, and besides the top four, you could snag one of them in the middle rounds of your draft.
Comment below and, if you want to give back to the world, don’t try to be more green, just submit or vote for my rankings on BallHype or YardBarker (buttons below) to silence the crazies. I swear their voices are in my head ranking Romo outside of the top five and Eli Manning number two overall.
The New York Giants upset in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLII is being touted as one of the greatest comebacks in sports history, but how will their performance impact your fantasy season in 2008? Should you draft David Tyree next year? I got your answers.
Eli Manning – QB New York Giants
With the final offensive drive for the Giants, Eli Manninglooked like a superb quarterback, but Eli didn’t get hot enough to be worthy of starting until the playoffs.
Manning had just three noteworthy performances during the regular season:
Week 1 against the Cowboys: 4 TDs, 1 INT, 312 yards
Week 17 against the Patriots: 4 TDs, 1 INT, 1 FUM, 251 yards
These three games include both of Manning’s 300-yard performances and his “breakout” showing before playoffs in week 17 against the Patriots. His week 6 performance was plagued by his 2 INTs and a fumble.
Overall, throughout the regular season, Manning averaged 13 points per game in standard scoring. That isn’t worthy of starting these days when some quarterbacks are pushing 40+ points each game like one *ahem* Tom Brady.
Move Manning up on your cheatsheets just a smidge, but be cautious of him. He can play at a higher level as he showed in the playoffs, but he will probably return to form with INTs and fumbles in 2008 until he finds his system again. I wouldn’t touch him in 2008.
David Tyree/Steve Smith – WR New York Giants
As for Tyree, are you crazy? Tyree will probably disappear into the Giants offense next season. His catch in the Super Bowl will go down as one of the best, but where was he all season long?
Keep your eye on Steve Smith who emerged late in the 2007 season as a solid target for Manning. With Amani Toomer aging, it could be Smith that takes the role opposite Plaxico Burress.
Both Tyree and Smith could start the season on your watch list in 2008 at wide receiver.
Tom Brady should have been pegged down a few spots for 2008 simply because he can’t post back-to-back phenom seasons. With his performance in the Super Bowl, all NFL teams now see how to break his system and beat the Patriots. Expect him to drop a few more spots for 2008 as far as the overall draft ranking are considered, but he is still a top 5 QB and probably the top QB heading into 2008. He is likely to be taken first round in many leagues, and he rightfully should be as long as Randy Moss and his other key weapons stay.
Randy Moss, WR New England Patriots
Randy Moss showed he is not too old to dominate in this league. While he won’t have the production he did this season now that the secret is out for how to beat the Brady-to-Moss connection, Moss should still have a productive year next season. He’s the receiver to beat for 2008 and should be drafted first unless someone has a real obsession with Reggie Wayne.
Wes Welker, WR New England Patriots
Wes Welker‘s stock rose during his Super Bowl performance. If he had been utilized even more, the Patriots might have moved the ball better.
Now that the system is out there to beat the Patriots, the Patriots response should be to use Welker more in the middle and under those big routes Donte Stallworth and Randy Moss are running. He will likely be undervalued again next year, but be sure to keep your eye on him and take him–especially if you can get him at a low cost. I would rank him among the top 20 receivers and maybe even among the top 15.
The Giants defense
The real winners of this game were the Giants defense. With Justin Tuck leading the charge, they sacked Tom Brady more than any other team has this season. The defensive line of the Giants was absolutely dominant.
Look for them to keep their dominance next season. Even if Manning starts cold, the Giants defense–as long as they don’t lose their coordinator–will continue to rule the line and create some turnovers. I would put them high on the list of defenses to take early in the draft in 2008.
If you are wondering about your draft strategy for 2008 and where you should start taking your QBs and WRs after the lack of RB performance in 2007, subscribe to our feed and catch the updates this off-season. If you so choose, you can even subscribe by email, and that’s classy.
With the Patriots eliminating the Colts in the “Battle of the Unbeatens” this past Sunday, only a couple of teams remain on the Patriots roster that could stop them from breaking the famous Miami undefeated season.
Apparently, the NFL has decided to take advantage of the hunt to take down the beast. After the Colts showdown had unusually high results for Sunday afternoon football ratings–surprise, surprise considering there are usually a couple of decent games going on at the same time with equal amount of hype–the Patriots game against the Steelers was pushed back to the same time slot rather than being an “early” 1 p.m. game. The time slot perhaps suggests that the NFL, or at least CBS, believe that the Steelers will be the one to take down Brady’s boys. If they play like they did Monday night against the Ravens, they just might.
The only other opponent which threatens the Patriots run at being unscathed all season is their final show against the Giants. As the final game of the regular season, it might not matter enough for the Patriots to fight through a victory, and the Giants bruising pass rushers could threaten the health of Tom Brady and his perpetually questionable shoulder.
With all this talk about the AFC, don’t forget that the NFC still has some powerhouse offenses and great defenses with the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers and New York Giants. If one of them–especially the Giants–starts to make a run for the Super Bowl late in the season, they could even match up well against the Patriots now that a hole has been exposed in the New England offense.
On a fantasy note, having players on either of these NFC or AFC will treat you well going into the final few games of the regular season and into the playoffs.
Fantasy Highlight: I’ll also mention briefly here that reports look doubtful for Larry Johnson playing Sunday against Denver’s horrible run defense. Look for Priest Holmes and Kolby Smith to make some definite marks in the contest and pick them up if you need a running back for a week or two.
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