Posts Tagged ‘Greg Jennings’

Believe it or not, Scoring Leaders for Week 11: If you don’t have multiples, you’re just not trying hard enough

November 23rd, 2010

Your fantasy studs only scored once? Well, that’s just child’s play. The real studs scored twice or more on Sunday, and they should easily do the same a time or two before the fantasy football playoffs are over. Start ‘em if you got ‘em.

CINCINNATI - NOVEMBER 21: Steve Johnson of the Buffalo Bills runs with the ball after a reception during NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on November 21, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Bills won 49-31. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: 275 passing yards and 3 TDs, 55 rushing yards and 1 TD vs. Raiders

Much like a high school girl at her prom, Big Ben hates it when other teams dress up like the Steelers. The Raiders have been wearing black and putting teams away with a running game and a defense. That just won’t fly. So I guess Big Ben was trying to make a point when he exposed them on Sunday.

The Steelers walked all over the Raiders all day long. Roethlisberger benefited from the absence of Nnamdi Asomugha. When this offense is firing on all cylinders, as it seems to be now, they’re hard to stop.

Greg Jennings, WR, Packers: 7 catches for 152 yards and 3 TDs vs. Vikings

Aaron Rodgers reminded all Jennings’ owners why they drafted him: He’s the No. 1 wide receiver on a highly explosive offense. They got rolling against the Vikings in a blowout, and Jennings was doing damage in both big and small chunks.

It was good to see him targeted in the red zone in addition to his targets from long-range. He should continue to produce down the stretch since he is Rodgers’ most reliable target for now.

Steve Johnson, WR, Bills: 8 catches for 137 yards, 3 TDs vs. Bengals

I thought this Bills passing game would have cooled off by now, but just when you think they’re done, they come roaring back. Steve Johnson absolutely destroyed the Bengals in the second half.

Johnson’s probably going to end up being the waiver wire pickup of the year. He’s scored in almost every game he’s played in with Fitzpatrick under center. Those numbers are going to be hard to beat as long as this passing game stays red-hot throughout the playoffs, even as Buffalo freezes over.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers: 301 passing yards and 4 TDs, 21 rushing yards vs. Vikings

A big fantasy day for Jennings means a big fantasy day for Rodgers, but you know this. He’s one of the top quarterbacks in fantasy. This stat line is what you expected out of him in easy matchups when you drafted him. He poured it on the Vikings, led by the man he replaced, Favre.

This game was like watching a little kid jump up and down on Brett Favre’s sandcastle, all while Brett had to watch his creation go to pieces. I kind of enjoyed it.

Without a doubt, we can say that the Packers made the right call in moving on from Favre to Rodgers when they did. No team that’s tried to make it work with Favre has succeeded.

The Packers have turned into a very scary team just at the right time as fantasy playoffs (and the real NFL playoffs) approach.

Jon Kitna, QB, Cowboys: 147 passing yards and 3 TDs, 40 rushing yards and 1 TD vs. Lions

I played it safe this week by starting Shaun Hill out of fear that the Cowboys would concentrate on their running game after establishing an early lead. They didn’t, unless you count that late rushing score by Kitna as the running game. Jason Garrett’s perfectly comfortable calling passing plays the whole game, and that works for Kitna’s fantasy owners.

Kitna ended the day without much yardage, but he scored a ton, making him the better play over Shaun Hill. It seems they’ll both be great plays down the stretch, as both the Cowboys and Lions love to throw the ball.

Kitna should be owned in all leagues and has a great schedule in Weeks 15 and 16 of the fantasy playoffs as long as Romo doesn’t return.

This part is the place where I would list Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, but I’ll skip them. I assume you know the drill when it comes to those guys.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Bills: 316 passing yards and 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 11 rushing yards vs. Bengals

What looked like a quiet performance turned into a fantasy explosion late when the Bills mounted a comeback. I don’t know whether to be impressed with how overpowering the Bills were in this one or to just acknowledge how absolutely horrid the Bengals are. No one wants to win badly enough in Cincy. Too bad.

Fitzpatrick has had a few rough patches along the way, but if he keeps playing this aggressively, it’s hard to say he won’t produce another fantasy day or two like this one in the next few weeks.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets: 7 catches for 126 yards, 2 TDs vs. Texans

Another week, another come-from-behind victory capped off by a Holmes touchdown pass from Sanchez. The Jets’ unpredictable performance in winnable games has become predictable again. And you can count on Holmes to remain the focus in the passing game from here on out.

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: 116 rushing yards and 2 TDs, 3 catches for 13 yards vs. Bengals

Even Jackson got in on the fantasy field day to be had against the Bengals. His schedule isn’t so easy, and he faces the Steelers this week after they just completely stuffed Darren McFadden…but if you can see a light at the end of the tunnel, Jackson has a game like this left in him.

He still has matchups against the Vikings and Patriots on the schedule, and I’m not too worried about C.J. Spiller cutting into his production when he returns later this season.

Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets: 315 passing yards and 3 TDs, 1 INT, 22 rushing yards vs. Texans

The Texans are horrible, and Sanchez took advantage. Moral of the story: Always start the quarterback playing the Texans. Enough said.

A note on D/STs that did well…

If you were looking for an impressive D/ST performance, you got it out of the Browns and Ravens. If they’re not owned, the Browns make for an intriguing play the rest of the way, and they face the Panthers this week.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: 6 catches for 109 yards, 2 TDs vs. Cardinals

Okay, okay. I keep saying he’s going to fade down the stretch, and yet, here we are with another huge fantasy day and multiple touchdowns for Bowe. I guess you have to start him until he cools off. That’s not such a bad problem to have, is it?

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Posted in NFL News & Rumors, Waiver Wire

Tags: Aaron Rodgers Baltimore Ravens Ben Roethlisberger Cleveland Browns Drew Brees Dwayne Bowe Fred Jackson Greg Jennings Jon Kitna Mark Sanchez Peyton Manning Ryan Fitzpatrick Santonio Holmes scoring leaders Steve Johnson top scorers top scores

How to Win Your Fantasy Football League on Draft Day—vers. 2010

August 19th, 2010

When it comes to fantasy football draft strategy, I’ve tried almost everything. RB-RB? Of course. Draft a quarterback in the first round? Sure. WR-WR? Most definitely. But all this trial and error has paid off.

After hammering out what I think is my best strategy to date last season in the “cutting out the middle men” fantasy football draft strategy and deciding how to play the first round, I think I’ve finally refined the best way to win your league on draft day this season.

And I’m going to share it with you.

What you need to win

Traditionally, we all took running backs because they were scarce. Not every team had a workhorse running back, and in a 12-team league, we needed to start at least 24 of them.

But now, there are 50+ running backs available since every team in the NFL has a time share. So after the five elite running backs are off the board—Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, and Frank Gore—we don’t have to use a first-round pick on a running back.

Not to say that you don’t need a decent running back. You just don’t have to pay a first-round price for one. It’s always nice to have a promising guy like Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Shonn Greene, Ryan Mathews, Ryan Grant, or Cedric Benson on your roster. But you can make do if you miss out on them.

You’ll notice I didn’t list Steven Jackson or Rashard Mendenhall on that list. I did that on purpose. They are on the cusp of what I would consider the top, reliable running backs, but they scare me more than they excite me this season. And much like the ladies, that’s not going to work for me when it comes to running backs.

Quarterbacks, while valuable, aren’t as scarce as running backs because each team only needs one. I love me some quarterbacks. Don’t get me wrong, but only a select few—Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady—are worth taking in the first three rounds. If you miss out on them, you should wait. (But DON’T miss out on them. More on this later.)

That leaves wide receivers. If you’re following me so far, you understand that wide receivers are the new running backs. Receivers have become more reliable and valuable as the NFL becomes more and more passer-friendly. The top receivers are worth building a team around and can give you an advantage if you know how to draft your running backs late.

Guys like Andre Johnson and Greg Jennings are more consistent than the rest of the pack you’ll be able to draft later. My list of elites for this season also includes Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin, Roddy White, DeSean Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Marques Colston, and Sidney Rice with Larry Fitzgerald right on the edge of greatness. (I’m not a fan of Matt Leinart at quarterback this season.)

So draft your elite wide receivers early and often, and you’ll have an advantage.

Every team needs at least one of these top wideouts to “win” their draft, but you’re even better off if you can nab two of them to fill your starting roster. Of course, that’s assuming that you start two wide receivers. If you start three wide receivers, I’d still limit myself to taking two elites early because you can wait on the third just to make sure you don’t miss out entirely on running back value.

I’ll explain the strategy I recommend to make this happen, but before I do that, a side note.

Plans: Made to be broken

No draft ever goes exactly to plan. You can’t know whom the rest of your league is going to draft. Several teams could draft quarterbacks in the first round, or no one could draft a quarterback for three rounds. We really don’t know. So you have to be able to adjust to what your league is giving you. That’s why I recommend the tiered draft cheatsheets, and that’s why I can’t tell you exactly how to draft each position.

So much like my first round strategy from last season, this strategy is just a starting point. Deviate from it as you have to in order to draft the best team possible.

Strategy on draft day

In 2010, I believe a championship team needs one of the elite quarterbacks and at least two of the elite wide receivers. If you get a reliable running back, more power to you.

And it’s all about how you play the first three rounds.

If you have a shot, go with one of the elite five running backs. You can build a solid team around a guy that is highly involved in the offense. While you might miss out on an elite quarterback because you’ll have to look at wide receivers in the second and third rounds, you can recover from that.

If you don’t get a shot at one of the elite running backs, you have you’re pick of WR-WR-QB, WR-QB-WR, or QB-WR-WR in the first three rounds. I like these sequences this season, and I think they maximize the value you get in the first three rounds.

Don’t use QB-WR-WR unless you really want Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Peyton Manning this season and your league scores passing touchdowns at six points. I don’t think any of the other elite quarterbacks should be considered until the second round.

In the fourth round, when it comes time to draft running backs, try to take the two best guys on the board right away. More than likely, other members of your league have moved on to drafting what’s left of the wide receivers and quarterbacks. You’ll have your pick of a good group of mid-level running backs who have the potential for greatness.

As you enter the chewy center of your draft, I’d suggest using the “cutting out the middle men” fantasy football draft strategy principles. Draft value and aim for sleepers rather than “safe” and “dependable” guys. You got your safe picks at the top of draft. For example, I’d rather have Jamaal Charles than Joseph Addai. I’d rather have Beanie Wells than Clinton Portis or Ricky Williams.

Make a special effort to get a lot of running backs. Since you didn’t draft them high, you’ll best protect yourself by drafting more of them. You want to load your roster with as many guys as possible who have the potential to be a top performer even if they’re currently a backup on their NFL roster.

You can also draft a few sleeper wide receivers later in the draft to compliment your studs. These wide receivers could become trade bait or free you up to trade your studs for one of the elite RBs you missed out on earlier in the draft. You can find a few good ones in Chris Harris’ article on “moneyball” wide receivers at ESPN.

With this strategy, you’ll “win” your draft just like I won mine.

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Posted in Player Rankings, Tips & Strategy

Tags: 2010 draft Aaron Rodgers Adrian Peterson Andre Johnson Beanie Wells Brandon Marshall Calvin Johnson Chris Johnson Chris Wells Clinton Portis cut out the middle men draft strategy DeSean Jackson Drew Brees fantasy football draft fantasy football draft strategies fantasy football draft strategy Frank Gore Greg Jennings Jamaal Charles Larry Fitzgerald Marques Colston Maurice Jones-Drew Miles Austin Peyton Manning Philip Rivers player tiers Randy Moss Ray Rice Reggie Wayne Ricky Williams Roddy White Shonn Greene Sidney Rice tiering Tom Brady Tony Romo winning

Week 9 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders: Any Given Sunday

November 6th, 2009

I watched Any Given Sunday last night. Twice.

No matter how many times you watch that movie, it makes you want to run through a wall, and then a pack of linebackers, followed by another wall. Every. Time.

I didn’t even need to drink coffee this morning. I’d already run out of walls. (Okay, that’s a lie. I still drank my coffee, but I didn’t HAVE to drink it.)

Rather than give you some silly intro into this start or sit article, let me leave you with the immortal words of Coach Al Pacino. I yell this at my fantasy teams every time they lose.

How many Pantheon Cups do you want to win now?

Oh, and if you missed this week’s Fourth & 1 Debate due to yesterday’s incredibly lame and un-Pantheon-Cup server downtime, you should definitely read up. It’s a must-read for anyone bound for the fantasy football playoffs.

And if you’re a big fan of my work here on the starts and sits each week, show your gratitude by voting for Fantasy Football Fools in the Fantasy Football Librarian’s first annual Reader’s Choice Poll. I’m not sure what we win, but I will start planning a parade to rival the one the Yankees are getting this weekend.

Hot Hands Starts of the Week

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens vs. Bengals – I could not love this little running back more. Most of the time, the picks everyone likes in the preseason blow up in your face, but Rice has blown up on the field. I think Rice should have a good day—atypical when facing a top run defenses, but this is a perfect storm of fantasy goodness.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants vs. Chargers – They don’t have a nose tackle. That’s like a hole in the middle of your face. If Jacobs can’t run through that, it will only be because he is too big. After some devastating losses, the Giants better bring it, and Jacobs better be carrying the load.

Kevin Boss, TE, Giants vs. Chargers – He came back to life against the Eagles last week in an abomination of a performance by the Giants. Now he gets one of the sweetest tight end matchups out there. Let’s hope Eli Manning remembers he still exists.

Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs vs. Jaguars – I have reasons to doubt Charles—fumbles, offensive line play, the Chiefs, for crying out loud—but it’s very likely that I’ll be forced to rely on his services in at least one league this week. Against the Jags run-friendly defense, that doesn’t seem so bad.

Greg Jennings, WR, Packers vs. Bucs – At last. November is a good month for Jennings, and the Bucs can’t stop him. The Bucs also couldn’t stop me going out for a pass this week. You know, if I ever felt like running for one.

Cold Shoulders Sits of the Week

Derrick Mason, WR, Ravens vs. Bengals - It’s creepy how good the Bengals have gotten at taking away the top receiver from their opponents. They’ll do it again against Mason this week. More reason to like Ray Rice.

Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers vs. Titans – Some will point to the Titans’ passing yard atrocities and claim this is a great week to play Crabtree; I’ll point to the Titans’ win last week against the Jaguars and say it is not as good as people may think.

While the Titans have been terrible—fantastically terrible—against the pass, they’re finally getting healthy in the secondary. Cortland Finnegan returned just last week, and the difference was noticeable.

I’d be concerned about taking the chance on starting Crabtree. He has the potential to do well with the number of targets he’s received the last two weeks, but I have to worry about him. If you start him, know what you’re getting into. This is not your early-season Titans’ secondary.

Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals vs. Ravens – Is anyone else worried that the Ravens will be better prepared and out for revenge in this one? No? Just me? Well, I certainly wouldn’t jump into this one expecting the same 100+ yard performance.

A good game for Benson is possible, but the Ravens looked more like themselves last week.

Matt Forte, RB, Bears vs. Cardinals - Hard to trust Forte against the Cardinals, even after Arizona has been torched by DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Bears’ offensive line might just not have enough to open holes for Forte in this one. But at least you got your points from him last week.

Devin Hester, WR, Bears vs. Cardinals – I love the matchup, but I hate the injury. Hester is supposed to be breaking ankles, not spraining his own.

Unlike Anquan Boldin, I am not sure he can still be effective while hobbling 30 yards down the field. Not worth benching unless you have another solid option.

Snooze-Button Sleeper Pick of the Week

Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers vs. Giants – Now, let’s talk about this name for a second. Is there a second “L” in it or not? I see “Malcolm” on almost half the other sites out there, and yet, the Chargers’ official site has no “L.” Get your act together, people.

Unlike fantasy analysts, Floyd should have his act very together against the very vulnerable secondary of the Giants. The G-Men just don’t get a break, do they? Saints, Eagles, Chargers? Pains cometh, New York, and their names are Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and Malcom “One-L” Floyd.

I almost refused to pick Floyd as my sleeper since he’s been pointed out by many others, but I plugged him so highly in the waiver wire post this week that I have to double down.

If you were lucky enough to snag him off the waiver wire, feel free to clear a spot on your roster. A score might be a little greedy, but there should be plenty of yards to go around this Sunday.

Song to Ease Your Pain While You Set Your Lineups

2 Unlimited – Twilight Zone from the soundtrack of Any Given Sunday.

Of course, this post has to stay with the Any Given Sunday theme.

Wow, that chorus is hot. It just makes you want to scream “MORTAL KOMBAT!” at the top of your lungs into fan blades. That’ll put hair on your chest. (Watch out, ladies!)

I’m out. It’s time for another cup of coffee. And maybe I can watch Any Given Sunday again while you leave happy little sit-start questions and comments below.

Don’t trust me? First of all, I’m hurt. Second, try out these fools for more fantasy starts and sits: The Fantasy Football Geek Blog, Fantasy Football Xtreme, FF Toolbox’s starts and sits, Matthew Berry’s sitting thyself love/hate, The Fifth Down, Fantasy Football Goat, Fantasy Joe and Fantasy Football Librarian.

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Posted in Start or Sit

Tags: Antonio Gates Any Given Sunday Brandon Jacobs Cedric Benson cold shoulders Derrick Mason Devin Hester duds fantasy football roundtable Greg Jennings hot hands inspiration Jamaal Charles Kevin Boss Malcom Floyd Matt Forte Michael Crabtree Ray Rice sits sleeper song Start or Sit starts studs Vincent Jackson

Fourth & 1 Debate: ‘Buy low’ candidates for the second half

October 30th, 2009

This week’s Fourth & 1 Debate question for the fantasy football roundtable came from Smitty at Fantasy Football Xtreme. He asked “Who is your biggest buy-low candidate for Weeks 8 through 16?”

My pick? Greg Jennings.

He’s been a minor piece of the Green Bay offense thus far, and many of Jennings’ owners could probably be convinced that he’s taken a backseat to Donald Driver. But that is not the case.

While the Packers’ offensive line has limited Aaron Rodgers’ chances to get Jennings the ball, I think Jennings could be poised to turn things around as the line improves and gets healthy. The Packers will not allow him to be a non-factor this entire season, and as a piece of one of the most potent passing games this year, Jennings is worth gambling on for the final weeks of this season.

Try packaging a WR2 in a trade and getting Jennings “thrown in” on the deal. Jennings’ owners will think they’re getting rid of a stagnant piece of their team, but you’ll have a bargain receiver who could turn into one of the top-10 at his position in the second half.

For the rest of the answers this week, read the full debate at Fantasy Football Xtreme.

I’ll have the question next week for the Fourth & 1 Debate. Feel free to leave any suggested topics in the comments.

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Posted in Foolish Thoughts, Tips & Strategy

Tags: Aaron Rodgers buy low Donald Driver fantasy football roundtable fantasy stock watch Green Bay Packers Greg Jennings

Week 6 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders: A Week Without Peyton Manning

October 16th, 2009

I once heard that Peyton Manning can hear us think our own thoughts. In the huddle, he thinks so hard that the middle linebacker opposing him get headaches.

Headaches lead to fear; fear leads to anger; anger leads to hate; and hate leads to Manning’s audible at the line that allows his laser-sighted, rocket arm to put one in the end zone…

But why are we even talking about that guy? He’s out this week. How will we survive? Now on to the Week 6 hotties…

Hot Hands Start of the Week

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots vs. Titans
It’s crazy, I know, to think that any of you wouldn’t be starting Tom Brady, but consider this your reminder that he’s going to get everything right this week—no missing Randy Moss in the end zone, no short throws at Wes Welker’s feet. This week, the Patriots face the Tennessee Titans, currently starting two nice old ladies and a talking garbage can in the secondary.

Brady should destroy all hope that the Titans could win a game before the bye week, and if he doesn’t, well, we can all slam our heads into an NFL-sized helmet…or a wall…that works for some people…

Alas, this is just me wishing that I had ever been cool enough to deserve the nickname “Beer Truck.” What does that even mean? Does that mean you drink a lot of beer or that you are always carrying beer? Like that tailgater that’s always walking around and never finds the party…?

On second thought, that nickname doesn’t sound so cool.

Also hotter than normal this week:

Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals vs. Texans: Great googily-moogily. Benson is booming through defenses like boat parties in Cincinnati. I don’t understand it. They have Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco, but the star of this offense is Benson bus. This guy is bruising, and he currently leads the league in rushing. He should continue to do so after four quarters against the Houston Texans, Australian for terrible.

That’s true by the way. I do speak Australian.

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers vs. Browns: I actually like Rashard Mendenhall, too, but you have to remember that Willie once had “Fast” before his name. That said, Mendy’s earned his touches after playing some great football in Parker’s absence. If the offensive line blocks anywhere close to the way they did for Mendenhall against the Chargers, both Mendenhall and Parker could be hitting some out of the park. Well, just as long as Mendenhall doesn’t have swine flu. The Browns are bad, stains on underpants bad.

Braylon Edwards, WR, Jets vs. Bills: Jerricho Cotchery will be out nursing his hamstring this week, and in his stead, Edwards is going to destroy the Bills just like he destroyed the Dolphins on Monday night. I’m not sure who he stole the hands he’s using from, but Randy Moss might just want to make sure everything’s still attached down there. Maybe all Edwards needed was some of those brighter Broadway lights. Thomas Jones shouldn’t disappoint against the shameful Buffalo run defense either.

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens vs. Vikings: I know the matchup doesn’t look good on paper, but call me a glass half-full. Rice plays a part in the passing game, and he could easily put up yardage and another receiving score against the Vikings if the Ravens get it together. I’m listing him here not to tell you to start him over a stud with a better matchup but simply to declare my undying belief that Ray Rice was the best pick I made in my drafts this year. He’s a good start on any given Sunday.

All your Packers vs. Lions: Sure, easy call, but sometimes people don’t think straight. It drives me mad to read comments from people who refuse to play their matchups in these situations because they have some crazy idea in their head. Okay, okay, I often have crazy ideas in my head, but not as bad as some people. This game is a lay-up, and we may already know who’s catching the Packers first pass when the offense takes the field Sunday.

Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers vs. Bucs: It’s Tampa. What do you want from me? I don’t love the guy, but I could stand starting him in a bind this week.

Cold Shoulders Sit of the Week

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers vs. Broncos
Oh, the mighty have fallen, and they fell so hard it created a vortex of suck on their way down. I don’t really care that the Chargers are coming off of a bye. The Broncos just shut down the Patriots and proved they were worth the praise they’ve been getting, and Josh McDaniels is going to fist pump all over the Chargers.

Mike Nolan’s revitalizing his career by making game plans that just frustrate the holy hell out of other teams, and he should have no trouble making sure the slightly less effective running back of the Chargers stays that way.

It’s also pretty likely that the Broncos run the ball like crazy down through the Chargers defensive line considering how well that worked for the Steelers a few weeks ago. Since losing their nose tackle, San Diego’s been starting a matador in the middle of their line, and he’s waving everyone through. There might even be hope for Larry Johnson to score on this defensive line, so there’s something to look forward to next week. An early lead for the Broncos will force the Chargers to pass and LaDainian all nice and agitated on the sidelines.

Who else should you not touch in any way considered fantasy football-like this week? Well, I’ll tell you…

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs vs. Redskins: The Redskins, while miserable as ever on offense, have been rather stout on defense. They’re in the top 10 among points allowed to a receiver. The only way he earns his paycheck in this one is if he scores a touchdown, which I wouldn’t rule out.

Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks vs. Cardinals: Believe it or not, the Cardinals have been great against the run this year. This game will largely be fought through the air like the best episodes of SWAT Cats. Whatever happened to that show? And more importantly, how and why did cats ever want to fly? They don’t like it. I’ve seen it on the YouTubes.

Eli Manning, QB, Giants vs. Saints: There’s just too much pointing to the Giants wanting to keep this one conservative, which means they’ll limit Manning early. Eli’s a little banged up. The Saints are coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare. The game is in New Orleans. Drew Brees, Drew Brees and, oh, Drew Brees. While I think it could soon get out of hand for the Giants, forcing the lesser Manning into throwing situations, that’s when the Saints defense has been the most deadly. New Orleans is third best in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. I assume you have a better matchup.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans vs. Patriots: It’s a bold move. I know. But unless things break just right for Johnson—wait, Sunday isn’t opposite day, is it?—the Titans will be playing from behind against the Patriots. They haven’t involved Johnson in the passing game when trailing enough for me to sign off on him this week. You’ll probably still have to start him because the opportunity is there, and he is one of the most explosive backs in the league. But doesn’t it make you feel better to know that I’m hating myself for having to start him as well? Let’s hope for a touchdown. It worked with Braylon Edwards.

Chris Cooley, TE, Redskins vs. Chiefs: No one likes a tight end that has to spend all his time blocking.

Sleeper of the Week

Cadillac Williams, RB, Bucs vs. Panthers
Caddy should do some dirty things to the Panthers defense this week if Tampa Bay can keep pace long enough to utilize the running game. Josh Johnson’s keeping this offense effective through a terrible run of losses. Derrick Ward’s injury gave Caddy just enough room to take a lead in the RBBC, and Cadillac should prove his worthy of the starting job by getting a touchdown against the poor Panthers rushing defense.

Heaven forbid that the Bucs actually keep the lead in this one and allow Caddy to run all over the Panthers defense all day.

Song to Ease Your Pain While Setting Your Lineups

You’ll Get Bit… Ya BIT! – DJ Steve Porter Community Remix

I hear Community is a very funny show, but I’ve only gotten a chance to watch it a handful of times. Watching this remix video makes me want to set aside some more time for it…and surprisingly, learn more Spanish words. My high school education is limiting my budding rap potential. Ya BIT!

Want more?

Get more for what ails your lineup at The Fantasy Football Geek Blog, Fantasy Football Goat, FF Toolbox’s starts and sits, Matthew Berry’s love/hate (this week, with facts!), ESPN’s rankings (sometimes a better take than their projections) and Fantasy Joe.

As always, comments are yours. I make no promises about answering comments before Sunday this week because on Saturday, Oklahoma comes to town to take on my Longhorns. Lives could be ruined this weekend. Lives.

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Posted in Start or Sit

Tags: Aaron Rodgers Braylon Edwards Cadillac Williams Carson Palmer Cedric Benson Chad Ochocinco Chris Cooley Chris Johnson cold shoulders Donald Driver Dwayne Bowe Eli Manning Green Bay Packers Greg Jennings hot hands Jake Delhomme Josh McDaniels Julius Jones LaDainian Tomlinson Peyton Manning Philip Rivers Randy Moss Rashard Mendenhall Ray Rice sits sleeper song Start or Sit starts studs Tom Brady Willie Parker

Foolish Thoughts: Wherefore art thou Patriots?

September 21st, 2009

These Patriots are clearly not the same team that we expected to see back on the field with Brady’s return.

When New England traded Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raiders, it proved one thing: Bill Belichick will do anything for a first round draft pick. Draft picks are like crack to him. Belichick cannot refuse. If you gave him enough first round picks, he’d probably give away Tom Brady and his own kidney. Maybe two kidneys.

While that 2011 pick looks delicious right now, the Patriots defense does not. Belichick couldn’t have planned on losing Jerod Mayo in the first game of the season, but he certainly knew that the defense would suffer without Mike Vrabel, traded to Kansas City, and Richard Seymour. The new blood on defense hasn’t found their rhythm yet this season, and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez capitalized on their failings in Week 2.

Belichick seems to have an uncanny ability to find spare parts and plug them in as exact clones of the starters he has in place — *cough* Julian Edelman *cough* — but the team as a whole can’t get back to 2007 form.

Tom Brady hasn’t been getting the same zip on his passes, and the Jets’ Darrelle Revis was an absolute stud against Randy Moss, much like he was against Andre Johnson in Week 1. It might be time to sit your stud wide receiver when he faces the Jets.

Should you abandon your Patriots? No, of course not. As long as they aren’t playing the Jets defense, the Patriots offense should still create fantasy stars.

But if you drafted the New England defense with the expectation that they would enjoy a healthy dose of turnovers once Brady forced opponents into a throwing match, you might need to look for a second option.

Speaking of teams playing out of character
In the midst of the Titans-Texans score-a-thon, it was obvious to everyone watching that Chris Johnson is the Titan’s offense. The Titans rode the wave of that undefeated streak last year off the play of their excellent defense, which has lost the ability to generate a pass rush without Albert Haynesworth and exposed some holes in the secondary.

Maybe Kerry Collins is the problem. Maybe his time has come, or maybe I just give Vince Young too much credit. Without a doubt, the Titans are going to need some creativity on offense.

Maybe they can just direct snap to Chris Johnson and call it a day. My fantasy team would be completely cool with that. Completely.

One rib shy of the rack
Matt Hasselbeck took a big hit that knocked him out of his game this week, but it looks like he’ll be okay. It was just a broken rib, and it’s not like he has a history of injury or anything… Oh, wait, this could be a problem.

Discharged
The Chargers defense lost Shawne Merriman again at the end of yesterday’s game against the Ravens to a groin strain, but the bigger blow was the loss of Jamal Williams this week. Without him in the middle of the defense, the Chargers might run into some trouble.

Are things coming together in a perfect storm for Philip Rivers owners? He just might have to carry the Chargers for a few weeks.

The Wildcat comes to special teams
Maybe that’s why they list Sage Rosenfels as the third quarterback, eh? Sneaky Brad Childress…

Have you seen the Green Bay bomber?
Greg Jennings, where did you go? He checked out of the Bengals game Casper-style, but I don’t think Aaron Rodgers will let that happen again if the Packers want to keep that offense on the right track.

Breaking ankles
With this week’s sprained ankle for Brian Westbrook and last week’s sprained ankle for L.T., we could be looking at a season of Darren Sproles and LeSean McCoy pretty soon. Waiver wire accordingly.

At the closing Bell
Mike Bell may have lost his hold on the running back job in New Orleans by spraining his own MCL Sunday. It was too good to be true, but we’ll have to wait until the final diagnosis to see if Bell was just a two-week waiver wire savior.

Pierre Thomas owners certainly wouldn’t mind Bell being removed from the competition.

Even after two weeks of play, we’re still not quite sure who some of these teams are. Are the Jags the worst team in football? Are the 49ers really going to smashmouth their way to an NFC West title? Is Cadillac Williams a member of the undead, come back to own the running game in Tampa Bay? I guess we’ll see.

As always, the comments are yours.

2 comments »

Posted in Foolish Thoughts, NFL News & Rumors

Tags: Aaron Rodgers Albert Haynesworth Andre Johnson Bill Belichick Brian Westbrook Cadillac Williams Chris Johnson Darrelle Revis Darren Sproles Green Bay Packers Greg Jennings Houston Texans jacksonville jaguars Julian Edelman Kerry Collins LaDainian Tomlinson LeSean McCoy Mark Sanchez Matt Hasselbeck Mike Bell New England Patriots Philip Rivers Pierre Thomas Randy Moss Sage Rosenfels San Diego Chargers San Francisco 49ers Shawne Merriman Tarvaris Jackson Tennessee Titans Tom Brady Vince Young Wes Welker Wildcat

Foolish Thoughts: Rate My 2009 Team

September 1st, 2009

No one can claim to be all-knowing when it comes to fantasy football, and one of the most valuable parts of blogging about it for me is the reader feedback I receive in the comments. Your competition will never share their inner thoughts or concerns about your team — not without offering you a trade based on their opinion. A neutral outsider can help you determine what the rest of your league is thinking about your squad after the draft.

Team managers, of course, always think their team is bound for a championship. That’s a tad biased.

Now that I’ve compiled several of my teams this year, I thought it’d be interesting to discuss one of them and my trading and waiver wire plans for it this season. If you have a team you’d like to share, drop it in the comments. We could all use a good “How’d I do?”

My Team

This 10-team league follows basic scoring rules with no points per reception, but passing touchdowns are six points rather than the normal four points. The starting lineup is QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, K, DEF.

Here’s the team I trotted out of the bar with after our draft:

1.06 Randy Moss WR, New England Patriots
2.05 Greg Jennings WR, Green Bay Packers
3.06 Steven Jackson RB, St. Louis Rams
4.05 Aaron Rodgers QB, Green Bay Packers
5.06 Darren McFadden, RB Oakland Raiders
6.05 Ray Rice RB, Baltimore Ravens
7.06 Marshawn Lynch, RB Buffalo Bills
8.05 Devin Hester WR, Chicago Bears
9.06 Jay Cutler QB, Chicago Bears
10.05 Chris Henry WR, Cincinnati Bengals
11.06 LeSean McCoy RB, Philadelphia Eagles
12.05 Josh Morgan WR, San Francisco 49ers
13.06 Fred Jackson RB, Buffalo Bills
14.05 Dallas Cowboys DEF
15.06 John Carlson TE, Seattle Seahawks
16.05 Mason Crosby K, Green Bay Packers

My Initial Thoughts

I don’t love Steven Jackson, but even if you hate the guy, you can’t pass on him in the third round. He was worth the risk there, and I think I covered my tracks with McFadden, Rice and Lynch enough to fill in for Jackson’s inevitable injury or failings this season.

My selection of Jackson in the third round was a choice between SJax and Clinton Portis, but I chose Jackson for the upside. We know what we’re getting with Portis, and he’s already banged up this season. Jackson is healthy for now, and he’s bound to start off the season hot.

I made sure to build strength at wide receiver and quarterback in this league, where quarterbacks and wide receivers go early and often, and I like the players I ended up getting. Greg Jennings is one of my favorites going into this season, and Randy Moss should get plenty of touchdowns this year now that Tom Brady is back.

I felt a lot better about Darren McFadden before New Orleans destroyed Oakland in that blowout this weekend, but I like his chances to rebound from that poor performance. I was a big fan of running backs who caught passes in addition to getting carries, and most of my team shows that attraction. Hopefully, I won’t have many of my running backs shut out against tough run defenses because of their dual-threat nature.

I know Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers have the same bye week, but I liked them both this year. I plan on trading away the one I use less after the bye week, and I’ll be left with a stronger team because I’ll be able to choose between the two.

By the time their Week 5 bye approaches, I’ll be able to drop Fred Jackson and pick up an undrafted quarterback to fill in at quarterback. There are plenty of quarterbacks still on the board after just 16 rounds in this league. No one even touched Brett Favre.

In the later rounds, I tried to snag a few sleepers and backups to tighten up my team. Chris Henry and Josh Morgan could be value grabs, or I might be able to drop them after the first two or three weeks of the season. We’ll see how they work out.

After waiting until the very end of the draft to select a tight end, I was very pleased to get John Carlson. He could finish as a top-five or at least top-seven tight end, and I didn’t pay anything for him at all.

Your Thoughts

So what do you think? Where are the weaknesses (risky running backs) and strengths (proven wide receivers and upside quarterbacks) on my team? As always, the comments are yours. If you have a team that you’d like to share with the Foolish community, leave it in the comments with some notes about your starting lineup and scoring rules.

9 comments »

Posted in Foolish Thoughts, Mock Drafts

Tags: 2009 draft Aaron Rodgers Brett Favre Chris Henry cut out the middle men draft strategy Dallas Cowboys Darren McFadden defense Devin Hester fantasy football draft fantasy football draft strategy Fred Jackson Greg Jennings Jay Cutler John Carlson Josh Morgan LeSean McCoy Marshawn Lynch Mason Crosby Randy Moss Ray Rice sleeper Steven Jackson

Fantasy Draft Day Pick or Pass: Top 36 Wide Receivers by ADP

August 13th, 2009

Just as I broke down the running back average draft position with my “pick or pass” ranking style and noted which players might be worth skipping over in your draft rankings, I’m doing the same with wide receivers. Unlike running backs, many of the top receivers are worth a pick at their current draft stock, and there are plenty to like. As we progress down the rankings, you’ll notice a few receivers are holding values they don’t deserve this season.

These ADP values were taken from Fantasy Football Calculator and were current as of August 7, 2009.

Pick or Pass: Top 36 Wide Receivers as Drafted in Mock Drafts

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals – ADP: 1.07 – PICK
No matter how much you fear the Madden curse, it’s hard to deny that Larry Fitzgerald is set for another big season. Besides, he’s only due for half the dreaded curse this season anyway since he shares the cover. The NFC West is still a relatively pushover division, and other than competing for catches with Anquan Boldin, not much stands in his way. While Randy Moss and A.J. are also great options, Fitzgerald is the pick at wide receiver this season.

2. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans – ADP: 1.09 – PICK
The Houston Texans convince us every season that they’re the sleeper team in the AFC for next year. Whether they make the playoffs this season or not, Johnson will play a huge part in their success. The only threat to Johnson’s productivity is Matt Schaub’s injury risk, but that’s a risk I’d be willing to take. Johnson is just that good when he’s in the zone and worthy of a first-round pick if you must.

3. Randy Moss, New England Patriots – ADP: 1.09 – PICK
Moss was the No. 1 receiver in 2007, but his year away from Brady forced him to come back down to earth. One year removed from his record-breaking, 23-touchdown season, he could easily do it again. More than likely, he won’t make it out of the teens on touchdowns — records can only be broken so often — but he’s still worthy of an early selection as the Patriots return to form this year. Moss is once again a great pick.

4. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions – ADP: 2.02 – PICK
Megatron proved to be immune to bad quarterbacks last season as he rose to elite status off throws from Dan Orlovsky and Daunte Culpepper. After a full offseason with the Lions, Culpepper should be more in-sync with Johnson. While his recent thumb injury is worrisome, it’s not enough to scare most owners away from Johnson, who is likely to be the only target on a team that will be forced to throw the ball plenty this year. Megatron has to be a pick.

5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts – ADP: 2.06 – PICK
Despite the coaching changes in Indy, Peyton Manning will continue to lead an offense that makes all the receiving options fantasy studs. Wayne may not breakout as the clear No. 1 this season just because Marvin Harrison has finally left the receiver corps, but he’s worthy of WR1 status on any fantasy team. In the second round, he’s a value, and he’s still a pick.

6. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers – ADP: 2.08 – PICK
Jennings is one elite wide receiver who could make a jump into the super elite this season. As Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target last season, he improved his draft stock, so while it’s surprising to see him ranking above Steve Smith, I’d feel safe drafting him here and expecting another WR1 type of season. In some drafts, you might even be able to catch him in the third round as a great WR2. He’s a pick with upside.

7. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers – ADP: 2.09 – PICK
Suffering through a season without Jake Delhomme followed by a season where he always seemed to get tackled at the one- or two-yard line has taken its toll on Steve Smith’s value, but he’s still at No. 7 because he’s one of the most dangerous receivers in the NFL. With the 2009 schedule expected to be a little rougher on the Panthers, Delhomme may be forced to go to the air this season more than last, which should increase Smith’s value as long as Delhomme doesn’t throw as many picks as he did in the Panthers’ playoff exit. Smith’s current shoulder injury is not great news, but I doubt he’d be slow starting even if he didn’t get on the field until Week 1. Scare your draft mates with the injury news, and you might get him in the third round or later. Smith is a pick.

8. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints – ADP: 3.01 – PICK
There’s speculation that Colston’s fantasy totals may not be as high this season with the emergence of Lance Moore and Colston’s injury concerns. While he sat out most of last season, we have to trust that he’s still one of Drew Brees’ favorite targets. Even if Brees spreads the ball around, Colston’s a reliable receiver to have on your team as a WR1. I’d still pick him, especially if you can get him in the third round.

9. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons – ADP: 3.01 – PICK
Even though his holdout has ended, I’d caution against drafting Roddy White too high. You may think Matt Ryan will take that next step, but you should also note that the “hot read” has been shifted from White to Tony Gonzalez in this offense, which will reduce the targets for Roddy White. With less opportunity and in an offense that has proven it can move the ball on the ground, will Roddy White still produce the same fantasy stats? While he’s worthy of this pick, I wouldn’t go much higher to take White this season. I’d rather let others bet on him and take the “wait and see” approach. Pick him if you’re a believer.

10. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals – ADP: 3.01 – PICK
I’m not a fan of drafting a team’s second wide receiver as a WR1 of your fantasy team, but it’s hard to determine from week to week who the top target is in Arizona. Boldin is one of the most dangerous receivers with the ball in his hand, and with Kurt Warner throwing the ball, he should produce stats worthy of a WR1 start. I wouldn’t blame you if you skipped over this pick in your draft though.

11. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs – ADP: 3.06 – PASS
The first pass of the wide receiver class. The question isn’t whether Bowe will receive a lot of passes this year — he was one of the top targeted receivers last season with Tony Gonzalez in town. Now that he’s the only weapon out there besides veterans Amani Toomer and Bobby Engram and flaky Mark Bradley, Bowe should be the focus of Matt Cassel’s attention. But the question is whether Bowe will be able to do much with the passes that come his way. With Larry Johnson aging and Cassel unproven, no one knows what the Chiefs will be able to do on offense and how often Bowe will even have a chance at the end zone. He also hasn’t won any points with the new coaching staff by coming into training camp out of shape. He’s currently listed at the end of the depth chart to “inspire” him to work harder. I’d pass on him with his draft stock this high, but the receivers are starting to drop off at this point.

12. Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills – ADP: 3.07 – PASS
T.O. has been a fantasy icon for years, and he has a track record of performing well in his first season with any team. That said, he’s older now and playing in the frigid tundra of Buffalo. When the weather turns cold, how will he hold up and perform? Will Trent Edwards be capable of getting the ball to him in those conditions? Despite their connections in the Hall of Fame game, I’m not convinced that Buffalo’s no-huddle will be firing on all cylinders this season. And even then, much like Lee Evans, T.O. could start off hot only to fizzle when the weather turns breezy. If you do dare to draft him at his current ADP, I’d plan on flipping T.O. midseason for someone with warmer pastures. With his nagging toe injury, I’d pass on T.O. this season.

13. Wes Welker, New England Patriots – ADP: 3.08 – PICK
While not a typical WR1 pick, Welker makes an excellent WR2. A third-round pick is a bit of a stretch, but Welker is one receiver who, no matter the weather, opponent or score, will be involved in every game for the Patriots. He stands to gain a great deal from Brady’s return, and Welker should be a huge stud in PPR leagues. Especially if you’re looking for your second receiver in the third round, I’d pick Wes Welker.

14. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks – ADP: 3.11 – PICK
I’d be higher on Housh if the Seattle coaches weren’t droning on and on about how much they want to run the ball with Julius Jones this season. Despite all the talk, Jones remains a fairly risky running back and has underperformed several seasons in his career. T.J.’s best case scenario would be for the Seahawks to return to their gun-and-then-run offense put into place in Shaun Alexander’s final season with Seattle, and Matt Hasselbeck is capable of making Housh a huge fantasy stud if that happens. Worst case, Housh puts up WR2 worthy numbers as the Seahawks return to form. Either way, Housh isn’t a bad pick at the end of the third round. He has too much upside not to be a pick.

15. Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos – ADP: 4.01 – PASS
It’s funny how fast a player can turn sour. At the beginning of the offseason, I would have proclaimed Marshall a must-have receiver this season. Now, I wouldn’t want to touch him. His ADP is still as high as it was last season with Cutler in town, but Denver has a new coach and a new quarterback in Kyle Orton. With his off-the-field behavior continuing to be a question mark and the offensive minds showering praise on Eddie Royal, it doesn’t look like this is the season to own Marshall. His current legal troubles may even get him suspended again to start the season. In the fourth round, I’d pass and look to grab Eddie Royal at a much better value if you want a piece of this passing game.

16. Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys – ADP: 4.04 – PICK
In an interesting flip, Williams’ value has gone the opposite direction of Marshall’s this offseason. Last season, he was invisible beside Terrell Owens, but this year, he’s the Cowboys’ big target. I doubted his ability to rise to the occasion late last season and this offseason, but reports out of camp have me optimistic. Maybe it’s the Cowboy fan in me, but I see Williams finding his way into the No. 1 role and holding it down as well as can be expected this season. He won’t have T.O. numbers, but he’s worth a pick in the fourth round as a weak WR1 or a strong WR2 with upside.

17. Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 4.05 – PASS
No matter what his name is, you don’t want him on your team. He’s a definite threat on the field, but he’s one of the most frustrating players to own in fantasy because he is so inconsistent. With so much praise for Chris Henry from Carson Palmer, I’d worry that ol’ Ocho might be losing his touch. Even if he makes it through the season without tweeting his way into a suspension, I’d fear a Carson Palmer injury or a general failing of the Bengals’ offense. I can’t endorse him as a WR1 this year, and I’d turn him down in the draft unless you’re looking for a WR3. I’ll pass.

18. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers – ADP: 4.07 – PICK
Jackson’s intriguing here in the fourth round. I don’t see Philip Rivers living up to last year’s numbers, and I do see the Chargers running more in 2009. That said, Jackson could be a solid call in the fourth round. He’s clearly established himself as a No. 1 in the NFL whether he’s a fantasy WR1 or not, and he will probably see the majority of targets this season. With fewer throws, there is a danger that the Chargers spread the ball around, but that’s a risk that’s going to pop up for most of the receivers from this point on in the draft. I’d pick him, but I still don’t like Philip Rivers.

19. Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns – ADP: 4.10 – PASS
The mighty fall hard and fast in the world of fantasy football. Edwards is a clear example. After a stat-inflated season with Derek Anderson, Edwards only showed up for Monday Night Football games last season. Fool us once, shame on him; fool us twice, shame on us and our fantasy teams. With Brady Quinn likely to start this season, I doubt Edwards will get many of the long balls Anderson might have thrown him. Quinn prefers the short game, and Eric Mangini is a fairly conservative coach. In short, Cleveland looks like a fantasy mess, and I’d rather just avoid this situation unless I’m in a PPR league, in which short passes that don’t necessarily go anywhere still have value. I expect Edwards to be a big part of this offense, but I doubt that will do him much good. On top of my outlook on Edwards, nagging ankle injuries kept him out of the beginning of training camp, and a new injury just sidelined him again, which isn’t encouraging. If you’re taking Edwards as a WR2, that’s acceptable, but a WR1 he is not. I’d really prefer him as a WR3, and in the fourth round, I’ll pass.

20. Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis Colts – ADP: 4.12 – PICK
Gonzalez seems like a real trap this season. He’s coming into Indy as the No. 2 with Marvin Harrison out for good, and everyone — and their mom — wants to snag him as a sleeper. Newsflash: He’s no sleeper. The problem with the Colts is that, just like every other team with a good tight end, the second receiving target is usually the tight end, not the second wide receiver. In this case, this season looks great for Dallas Clark. Gonzalez should still get his targets as part of the Colts passing game, but don’t expect explosive numbers. In the fifth round, it’s probably safe to take your chances. He’s a pick.

21. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 5.05 – PICK
I must caution again because many people are jumping on Jackson in drafts as well. The Eagles spread the ball around, so Jackson may not be bound for a true No. 1 receiver season. Still, he became one of McNabb’s favorite targets in his first season, rare for an Eagles’ rookie. As long as Kevin Curtis doesn’t cut into his targets too much, Jackson is bound to have a borderline WR2/WR3 season. I’d love to have him as a WR3, but he has enough upside with all the improvements the Eagles made this offseason to be a WR2. Watch that knee he hyperextended this preseason, but he’s a pick.

22. Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers – ADP: 5.08 – PASS
I know I’ll probably have some disagreement on this one, but I don’t like Holmes. I didn’t like him last season, and I probably won’t like him next season. Even though he’s the dangerous target in the Steelers’ offense, he can disappear from games when the Steelers don’t throw the ball, and he’s not always the preferred target in the red zone over Hines Ward. Even though he turned it on in the Super Bowl run last year, I don’t believe he’ll take that next step to being fantasy relevant each week, so I must suggest you pass and settle for Hines Ward a few rounds later at a much nicer price tag.

23. Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: 5.12 – PASS
Bryant’s not terribly exciting, but he did convince the Bucs that they could part with Joey Galloway this offseason. No matter who throws the ball for the Bucs this year, Bryant is likely to see most of the targets, but how many targets will that be? Hard to say with how often the Bucs like to run. Bryant’s franchised this season and needs to impress, but his recent knee injury and surgery have me a little worried that he’ll start off slow and struggle to find a rhythm with his new quarterback. Rather than risk it, unless you’re in a PPR league, pass on Bryant for someone on a team with more offense.

24. Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos – ADP: 6.01 – PICK
Now this ADP has been climbing over the last few weeks as the hype around Royal and Josh McDaniels’ claims that he could be the next Wes Welker hit the news, but I’d still be ready to take him in the sixth round. Royal is probably going to be more productive than Brandon Marshall this season, and he has the ability to get open on any play. The Broncos will likely play from behind quite a bit with that Swiss cheese defense of theirs this season, and that means they’ll throw the ball enough to make Royal valuable. If you take him at this ADP or earlier, I hope you’ve already got two receivers on your roster. It’s a bit chancy to take him as a WR2, but if you choose to believe, why not pick him?

25. Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills – ADP: 6.03 – PICK
Evans would have been a pass until T.O. came to town. His addition means that defenses will look on the other side of the field from this speedster. Any double-teaming of Owens means a touchdown for Evans. Of course, if you draft him here, you should try to package him as early as Week 4 in trade so that you don’t get stuck with him when Buffalo gets too cold to pass late in the season. At this value, he’s worth picking just to see how the Buffalo no-huddle offense comes together.

26. Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings – ADP: 6.03 – PICK
Berrian’s always been a burner, and Tarvaris Jackson has always struggled to get him the ball. This pick is dependent upon Sage Rosenfels winning the starting job as I expect he will. With Rosenfels, Berrian could see more passes come his way and more opportunities for long balls. As an added bonus, Berrian gets no penalties for any interceptions Rosenfels throws in return. I’d feel more comfortable with Berrian as a WR3 than a WR2, but he’s a pick.

27. Santana Moss, Washington Redskins – ADP: 6.09 – PASS
It’s strange that one-third of the way through last season, Santana Moss was the No. 1 fantasy receiver. Washington could certainly start off hot again, but I doubt that Moss will get the scoring opportunities that made him so good last season. He’s always followed his big seasons with a cool down, and this year should get a lot colder. He’s still the first look in this offense, and he’s got a quarterback with something to prove in Jason Campbell. While yardage ain’t bad at this point in your drafts, I think that’s all we can expect from Moss this year. I’d be willing to start Santana Moss as a WR3, but in the sixth round, I’ll probably pass.

28. Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints – ADP: 7.01 – PICK
Moore is a guy that I really like this season because despite his big numbers in 2008, he’s not skyrocketing up the draft boards. Much like Kevin Walter, Moore is a name that your draft mates might easily forget. With Colston back on the field, Moore shouldn’t see as many passes coming his way, but Brees still trusts him to get open and make those catches. I’d consider Moore worthy of a WR2 start when the Saints have good passing matchups this season, but he makes for a great WR3 playing on the Saints, a team that loves to throw the ball. He’s a pick.

29. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers – ADP: 7.05 – PICK
A bargain in the late rounds, Ward tends to get most of the looks in the end zone in Pittsburgh. Despite his age, he’s still productive and dependable enough to be a WR3, and there will be weeks where he may get you two touchdowns if everything breaks right for him and Big Ben. As I said earlier, I’d rather have Ward on my roster as a WR3 than Holmes as a WR2. Ward’s a pick.

30. Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams – ADP: 7.06 – PASS
Donnie Avery had a great rookie season, but unfortunately for his value, Torry Holt left him in St. Louis as the only proven receiver — if you can say proven about second-year receiver. Now Avery’s hurt as well. Avery’s injury shouldn’t nag him all season, but he could very well start slow for the Rams. In an offense that’s already questionable, I worry about how effective Avery will be jumping back into the lineup just before the regular season. The Rams will probably be throwing the ball when they get behind, but Steven Jackson still might be the only Ram worth owning this season. Avery’s a pass in my book.

31. Laveranues Coles, Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 8.01 – PASS
Coles gets a lot of love from people who loved T.J. Houshmandzadeh on the Bengals last season or doubt Chad Ochocinco. The two knocks that I have against him are the Chris Henry hype and Carson Palmer’s injury risk. Chris Henry’s upside gives Coles quite a bit of downside, but I do like Coles more than I like Ochocinco this season. As a WR3, he’s manageable, but I don’t think he’ll surprise me. He’ll be a part of this Bengals offense, but it could go through some dry spells. I’d rather have a guy with more upside and less risk at this point in the draft, so I’ll pass.

32. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers – ADP: 8.02 – PASS
Even when he signs a contract, I wouldn’t want him on my roster. Crabtree will have a hard time winning over the coaches and getting on the field this season, and that’s only if he can grasp the offense. Give him a year in the oven, and see if he comes out smelling good on the other side. I’d definitely pass.

33. Torry Holt, Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP: 8.03 – PICK
Holt may be on a team that doesn’t usually throw the ball, but Jacksonville hasn’t had a solid receiver with his talents in several years. He struggled last season with the Rams, but this season, he may see a lot more opportunity created by Maurice Jones-Drew demanding attention at the line and out of the backfield. For an old guy, he’s got a lot of potential upside, and he could turn into a consistent scorer from week to week. I like that as a WR3. In a PPR league, I like him more, but in non-PPR leagues, he’s also a pick.

34. Kevin Walter, Houston Texans – ADP: 8.03 – PICK
I love Walter as a WR3. Matt Schaub likes to look for him in the red zone, and Andre Johnson often draws double coverages that leave Walter open to make a play. Last season, he had plenty of games where he was worthy of a WR2 start, and I’ll buy the hype again this season that this could be the Texans’ year … at least until Week 4. In the eighth round, Walter’s a nice value pick with tons of upside.

35. Devin Hester, Chicago Bears – ADP: 8.04 – PICK
The eighth round might be the latest you’ve ever been able to draft the No. 1 target of Jay Cutler. Reports out of Bears’ training camp see Cutler forming a good connection with Hester, and as the leading receiver last season, Hester could be in line for more balls his way now that it’s Cutler, not Orton, under center. With Cutler’s ability to throw the long ball, Hester has the chance to get behind defenses with his speed and score on almost every play. I’d take a chance in the eighth round that Hester makes a move at being a fantasy WR2 this season. Who’s with me? He’s a pick.

36. Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets – ADP: 8.07 – PICK
Cotchery’s looking at a down year this season with the Jets’ quarterback position in transition, but regardless of which rookie or almost-rookie takes the job, I expect the Jets to follow something similar to the Ravens’ model from 2008: run the ball plenty, and when you have to throw, look at Mason — or, in this case, Cotchery. As the only target, he could be effective enough to be a WR3. In PPR, that’s more valuable than it sounds, but in regular leagues, he’s worth taking a chance on in the late rounds. Just take a few upside guys late in your draft to replace him if the Jets fizzle into a running game that gets no production from the quarterback.

Now that’s a wrap. This list should cover most of your starting wide receiver selections this season. My opinion may change on these guys as the preseason continues, so keep an eye out — or subscribe — for new articles on these receivers. You can also post any questions in the comments for updated opinions — I’m willing to share.

As always, the comments are yours. Tell me what receivers you think will be busts this season or whether you disagree with any of my picks.

4 comments »

Posted in Player Rankings, Tips & Strategy

Tags: 2009 draft ADP Andre Johnson Anquan Boldin Anthony Gonzalez Antonio Bryant average draft position Bernard Berrian Brandon Marshall Braylon Edwards Calvin Johnson Chad Johnson Chad Ochocinco DeSean Jackson Devin Hester Donnie Avery draft prep Dwayne Bowe Eddie Royal fantasy draft fantasy football tools Greg Jennings Hines Ward Jerricho Cotchery Kevin Walter Lance Moore Larry Fitzgerald Laveranues Coles Lee Evans Marques Colston Michael Crabtree pick or pass Player Rankings Randy Moss Reggie Wayne Roddy White Roy Williams Santana Moss Santonio Holmes Steve Smith stud T.J. Houshmandzadeh Terrell Owens Torry Holt Vincent Jackson Wes Welker wide receiver WR

My Office League 2008: A Real Draft in Review

August 3rd, 2009

I’ve been mock drafting and really drafting for a few weeks now, but it’s hard to judge a draft when the season still hasn’t even started. For some added perspective and lessons learned, I took a look back at the team I managed last year in my office fantasy football league — one of my more disappointing teams last year.

For the record, most of the managers in this league know their football, even though they may have drafted kickers and defenses early like uninitiated fantasy footballers. Maybe a few of you will find this league more representative of your regular office league and less like the fantasy mock drafts I’ve recently done. I have removed the names of the other teams — besides my own “Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour,” that is — to protect the innocent, er … non-blogging fantasy footballers.

The Draft

Round: 1
(1) LaDainian Tomlinson RB
(2) Adrian Peterson RB
(3) Tom Brady QB
(4) Tony Romo QB
(5) Brian Westbrook RB
(6) Joseph Addai RB
(7) Steven Jackson RB
(8) Marion Barber RB
** (9) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – Terrell Owens WR
(10) Randy Moss WR

I went with a receiver this round, which, knowing what I know now, wasn’t the best plan. T.O. was fairly disappointing last season without Romo for three games and with the lackluster Cowboys’ offense bringing him down. I would have been much better off drafting Frank Gore or Clinton Portis in this spot, but hey, that’s what I get when I look back on a draft one year later.

Round: 2
(11) Peyton Manning QB
** (12) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – Reggie Wayne WR
(13) Frank Gore RB
(14) Clinton Portis RB
(15) Marshawn Lynch RB
(16) Drew Brees QB
(17) Ryan Grant RB
(18) Maurice Jones-Drew RB
(19) Ben Roethlisberger QB
(20) Larry Johnson RB

As if I hadn’t made enough of a mistake by taking an unfortunate receiver in the first round, I doubled down by taking another in the second. I needed a running back but went with a receiver while banking on my sleeper running back picks to save me later in the draft. My run on receivers was largely ignored by the rest of the league.

I can’t completely denounce the WR-WR draft strategy, but it certainly didn’t work for me in this draft. To my credit, Wayne and Owens had been two of the more consistent and productive receivers in the game … until last season.

Round: 3
(21) Braylon Edwards WR
(22) Plaxico Burress WR
(23) Willis McGahee RB
(24) Dallas Clark TE
(25) T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR
(26) Andre Johnson WR
(27) Carson Palmer QB
(28) Larry Fitzgerald WR
** (29) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – Marques Colston WR
(30) Reggie Bush RB

And I tripled my mistake by taking Colston. This league started two receivers, one running back and one RB/WR flex. At this point in the draft, I was planning on having three receivers and one running back start for me each week. I believed that Owens would produce more points than a second running back might have gotten for me at my draft position. I just picked the wrong receivers for this strategy … as we saw with Colston’s injury, Owens’ disappointing season and Wayne’s struggles while Manning recovered from his surgeries.

Round: 4
(31) Darren McFadden RB
** (32) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – Willie Parker RB
(33) Michael Turner RB
(34) Chad Johnson WR
(35) Wes Welker WR
(36) Brandon Jacobs RB
(37) Thomas Jones RB
(38) Torry Holt WR
(39) Jason Witten TE
(40) Santonio Holmes WR

I passed on a chance to take Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs or Thomas Jones to snag Willie Parker, who was a super stud right up until he got himself injured early in the season. I’m starting to notice a trend here with my picks so far…

Round: 5
(41) Philip Rivers QB
(42) Roy Williams WR
(43) Antonio Gates TE
(44) Marvin Harrison WR
(45) Kellen Winslow TE
(46) Brett Favre QB
(47) Laveranues Coles WR
(48) Calvin Johnson WR
** (49) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – Jay Cutler QB
(50) Anquan Boldin WR

Making sure I didn’t lose any ground at the quarterback position, I took Cutler, who was a nice anchor on my team in 2008. His performance week-to-week kept me in this league, but his lackluster games really hurt when I needed him most.

Round: 6
(51) Earnest Graham RB
** (52) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – Jamal Lewis RB
(53) Donovan McNabb QB
(54) Tony Gonzalez TE
(55) Steve Smith WR
(56) Anthony Gonzalez WR
(57) Brandon Marshall WR
(58) Greg Jennings WR
(59) Sidney Rice WR
(60) Selvin Young RB

Here I pay the price for drafting receivers in the first three rounds. Jamal Lewis was a consistent running back last year but hardly the guy you wanted to put in your roster over a stud receiver or hot hand.

Round: 7
(61) Nate Burleson WR
(62) Santana Moss WR
(63) Edgerrin James RB
(64) Fred Taylor RB
(65) Patrick Crayton WR
(66) Laurence Maroney RB
(67) Hines Ward WR
(68) Jerricho Cotchery WR
** (69) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – Lee Evans WR
(70) Jonathan Stewart RB

It’s torture looking back on all the receivers I took in this draft knowing now how my first picks would turn out. I wish I had taken Matt Forte with this pick. At least I’m stocking up tradebait at the wide receiver position.

Round: 8
(71) Matt Forte RB
** (72) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – LenDale White RB
(73) Chris Cooley TE
(74) Ronnie Brown RB
(75) Heath Miller TE
(76) Derek Anderson QB
(77) Donald Driver WR
(78) Roddy White WR
(79) Jeremy Shockey TE
(80) Todd Heap TE

This draft wasn’t full of a lot of rookie scouts. Even though I lost out on Forte, I knew that I could snag Chris Johnson later in this league. I took LenDale here to secure the handcuff in advance of the stud — risky … but successful.

Round: 9
(81) Eli Manning QB
(82) Vince Young QB
(83) Julius Jones RB
(84) David Garrard QB
(85) Alge Crumpler TE
(86) Matt Hasselbeck QB
(87) Ricky Williams RB
(88) Dwayne Bowe WR
** (89) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – Chris Johnson RB
(90) Matt Schaub QB

As predicted, I stole “Every Coach’s Dream” here in the ninth round. This move keeps my running backs respectable, but I still bet on the wrong receivers in the early part of this draft.

Round: 10
(91) Ted Ginn Jr. WR
** (92) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – Tony Scheffler TE
(93) Felix Jones RB
(94) Seahawks D/ST D/ST
(95) Chester Taylor RB
(96) Chargers D/ST D/ST
(97) Vikings D/ST D/ST
(98) Bears D/ST D/ST
(99) Cowboys D/ST D/ST
(100) Colts D/ST D/ST

Other managers started to make an early run on defenses here. I chose to lock up the quarterback-to-tight-end connection by getting Tony Scheffler to pair with Jay Cutler.

Round: 11
(101) Stephen Gostkowski K
(102) Nick Folk K
(103) Javon Walker WR
(104) Shayne Graham K
(105) DeAngelo Williams RB
(106) Giants D/ST D/ST
(107) Mason Crosby K
(108) Marc Bulger QB
** (109) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – Kurt Warner QB
(110) Patriots D/ST D/ST

Most of the league shows their not-so-veteran backgrounds by drafting a starting lineup before taking their fliers at the end of the draft. I pass on taking a kicker here — because you only take those in the last round — and grab Kurt Warner to backup Jay Cutler. I now have on of the strongest quarterback sets in this league, and, in the preseason, the best wide receiver corps.

Round: 12
(111) Owen Daniels TE
** (112) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – Chris Chambers WR
(113) Adam Vinatieri K
(114) Justin Fargas RB
(115) Kevin Curtis WR
(116) Joey Galloway WR
(117) Aaron Rodgers QB
(118) Vernon Davis TE
(119) Rudi Johnson RB
(120) James Hardy WR

By this point, I’m just drafting for value. I know I probably need to trade some receivers for running backs, so I might as well stock up on receivers now so that I have plenty of depth.

Round: 13
(121) Eddie Royal WR
(122) Bernard Berrian WR
(123) Packers D/ST D/ST
(124) Kevin Smith RB
(125) Phil Dawson K
(126) Rashard Mendenhall RB
(127) Donte’ Stallworth WR
(128) Steelers D/ST D/ST
** (129) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – Eagles D/ST D/ST
(130) Rob Bironas K

I missed out on most of the defenses by sitting around until the final rounds, but it’s nice to land a solid team like the Eagles D/ST in Round 13 after almost everyone has their starters assembled. There was no reason to waste an earlier pick during that run on D/STs that most of the league made.

Round: 14
(131) Kevin Walter WR
** (132) Britney Spears’ Comeback Tour – Matt Prater K
(133) Kenny Watson RB
(134) Ray Rice RB
(135) Robbie Gould K
(136) Jerious Norwood RB
(137) Jerry Porter WR
(138) Nate Kaeding K
(139) Deuce McAllister RB
(140) Brandon Jackson RB

Prater was my pick at kicker last season since I had so much invested in Denver already. Might as well bet on them having a potent offense, right?

At Season’s End

Starting Roster

QB Kurt Warner
RB Warrick Dunn
RB/WR Chris Johnson
WR Reggie Wayne
WR Terrell Owens
TE Tony Scheffler
D/ST Jets
K David Akers

Bench

QB Jay Cutler
WR Lee Evans
WR Kevin Curtis
RB Jamal Lewis
RB Willis McGahee
RB Joseph Addai

Season In Summary

Injuries to Willie Parker and Marques Colston early in the season immediately ravaged my team. Peyton Manning’s injury and Tony Romo’s struggles kept Wayne and T.O. from being very effective, even though they were locked in as starters for me every week because of their high ceilings.

You can’t sit T.O. or Reggie Wayne when they are projected to explode every week, right? Well, that hurt.

Tony Scheffler’s injury after the first few weeks forced me to carry a second tight end for a good part of the season. Cutler ended up struggling in a few late games while Warner turned it on, so I switched to Warner as my workhorse. When bye weeks started, I took my chances dropping the Eagles D/ST and rotated through quite a few weekly plays before settling on the Jets D/ST to finish out my season.

By midseason, I was hurting for a stronger running back, but an injured Marques Colston wasn’t very convincing tradebait until I found a willing buyer with a banged-up Joseph Addai. I had picked up Warrick Dunn and Willis McGahee off the waiver wires to help my RB corps as well, but in the end, none of them could save my season.

My team finished the season 5-8 and missed the playoffs in this league, which was disappointing since I was looking for payback last year after taking my sleeper team of 2007 all the way to the championship game in this league.

Lessons Learned

1) Be careful with your first picks. Play it safe and avoid baggage.
You should be very careful about who you invest in during Round 1 and Round 2. T.O. and Reggie Wayne seemed like solid picks, but the baggage surrounding them — or at least Wayne — should have steered me towards a more solid running back.

2) WR-WR may be a good strategy, but don’t draft WR-WR-WR.
While drafting two wide receivers is all well and good, drafting three is usually going to catch up to you. If I had landed Forte and Johnson, I might have survived my risky move, but it’s hard to bet on landing all your best sleeper picks.

3) Reputation means nothing. Make moves when you need action.
Holding onto T.O. and Reggie Wayne all season was my greatest error. In a league like this one, I might have been daring and traded T.O. and a lesser running back for Greg Jennings and a running back with more opportunity. Most people would inflate T.O.’s value even in a slump, which would allow me to get out from under the burden of playing him every week while strengthening the running back group I had. There were plenty of trades I could have made, but I should have looked to unload my less productive players early. If you aren’t firing on all cylinders by Week 4 or Week 5, don’t be afraid to make something happen.

I hope diving into my past has been educational for you. It’s been painful for me. I invested some time in saving this league after injuries started to derail me, but I have to admit that I put more energy and effort into my more competitive leagues throughout the season. As you prepare to draft this season, make sure to be mindful of these lessons.

As always, the comments are yours.

6 comments »

Posted in Mock Drafts, Tips & Strategy

Tags: 2008 draft 2009 draft Chris Johnson Clinton Portis draft prep draft strategy fantasy draft Frank Gore Greg Jennings handcuff Jamal Lewis Jay Cutler Joseph Addai Kurt Warner Marques Colston Matt Forte Matt Prater Reggie Wayne Terrell Owens Tony Scheffler Warrick Dunn wide receiver Willis McGahee

Hair Model Mock Draft 2009: Tweaking the System

July 29th, 2009

There was actually a mock draft that I participated in last week besides the one that I let the ESPN autodraft bot destroy by filling the bench with quarterbacks. The fine young hair models from Fantasy Football Writers with Hair put together a 10-team, 16-round mock draft with a few of the Fanhouse crew, reps from Bruno Boys and Bleacher Report and me.

The roster was a standard setup with a flex position — 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST and seven bench spots. The scoring was basic as well with passing touchdowns awarded four points.

The guys at Fantasy Football Writers with Hair have just published the entire mock draft with their take on each round. Here I’ll break down each round with my own thoughts so that you can see what was going through my head when I decided it was a good idea to take Thomas Jones…

The 2009 Fantasy Football Writers with Hair Mock Draft

**- Represent my picks

Update: I’ve recently learned that Bruno Boys were unable to get back into this mock draft after we had started. All picks made by the Bruno Boys are, in reality, the ESPN autodraft bot at work once again. You can see how Bruno Boys might have actually drafted in the picks they made during the previous ESPN mock draft where I let the bot take control.

Round: 1
(1) John Lorge – Adrian Peterson RB
(2) Team Dembinsky – LaDainian Tomlinson RB
(3) Team Lalley – Maurice Jones-Drew RB
(4) Nick Allen – Michael Turner RB
** (5) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Matt Forte RB
(6) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Chris Johnson RB
(7) ffwriters withhair.com – Steven Jackson RB
(8) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Frank Gore RB
(9) Call me Stat Boy – DeAngelo Williams RB
(10) Bruno Boys.net – Larry Fitzgerald WR

My pick: It’s hard to complain with Matt Forte at the five spot. I would likely have taken Forte even if I had the second overall pick. I like him that much. It was an easy call to take him when he fell right into my lap.

Picks I like: It’s hard not to like anyone drafted in the first round. I mean, none of the mock drafters were using the Oakland Raiders’ notes here. Turner at fourth overall seems just about right. He has a tough schedule, but he should still produce like the fantasy champ he was last season because Atlanta is likely to see the end zone more often. Chris Johnson over Steven Jackson at pick No. 6 is also a pick from my own heart. Johnson has plenty of upside while Jackson’s team is hardly guaranteed to get points on the board. Outside of PPR leagues, I am not a fan of Steven Jackson this year.

Picks I hate: DeAngelo Williams, even late in the first, is a raw deal. The tougher schedule and the split with Jonathan Stewart should take him right back down to size. Don’t forget where he fell in drafts last season just because he ended the year as the No. 1 fantasy back. While I don’t hate it, taking Larry Fitzgerald at the end of the first round probably wouldn’t have been my move. I like running backs that are still on the board at this point, and it’s risky taking a wide receiver here and, as you’ll see, in the second round and still putting together a consistent running back group.

Round: 2
(11) Bruno Boys.net – Andre Johnson WR
(12) Call me Stat Boy – Brandon Jacobs RB
(13) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Randy Moss WR
(14) ffwriters withhair.com – Clinton Portis RB
(15) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Drew Brees QB
** (16) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Steve Slaton RB
(17) Nick Allen – Marion Barber RB
(18) Team Lalley – Calvin Johnson WR
(19) Team Dembinsky – Peyton Manning QB
(20) John Lorge – Brian Westbrook RB

My pick: I reap the benefits of the Bruno Boys’ run on wide receivers. Imagine my glee to see Slaton fall to me in the middle of the second round. I love the idea of having two young, highly-involved backs as my lead starters, and I only wish this mock draft was a real league. Slaton may lose goal line touches this season, but I have no doubt he’ll earn them back as Chris Brown gives in to the inevitable injury, and Slaton separates himself from the rest of the pack in Houston.

Picks I like: Clinton Portis doesn’t get enough attention for being one of the most reliable backs in fantasy. He deserves to be taken higher than 14th overall, but he’s going at a bargain rate right now because of the abuse he took last season. Brian Westbrook at the end of the second round isn’t too bad either. The old guy is still going to start in Philly, and the explosive offense they assemble could give Westbrook at least one more great year of fantasy production.

Picks I hate: It was daring to take Fitz in the first round, and following with Andre Johnson in the second round really puts Bruno Boys in a tough spot here. I would want to get my hands on at least one elite RB1 in a 10-team league, and Bruno Boys could have gotten another elite receiver in the third round had he taken a back with one of his first two picks. I guess if you’re going to go for wide receivers rather than running backs this early, you might as well go all in. With just four points per passing touchdown, I’d rather wait on quarterbacks. Brees in the mid-second seems too early to me just as Manning at the end of the round does. I don’t think the quarterback values are going to be as inflated this season as they were last year. Brady’s injury put a little fear back into everyone.

Round: 3
(21) John Lorge – Tom Brady QB
(22) Team Dembinsky – Dwayne Bowe WR
(23) Team Lalley – Pierre Thomas RB
(24) Nick Allen – Steve Smith WR
** (25) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Greg Jennings WR
(26) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Reggie Wayne WR
(27) ffwriters withhair.com – Ryan Grant RB
(28) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Roddy White WR
(29) Call me Stat Boy – Kevin Smith RB
(30) Bruno Boys.net – Ronnie Brown RB

My pick: Greg Jennings is a favorite this season. He’s primed to have another big year with Aaron Rodgers under center. He showed his elite status already last season, and the guy gets to play the Lions twice this year. What’s not to love?

Picks I like: Pierre Thomas is going to be better than Reggie Bush this year and deserving of the third-round grade if Brees puts him in scoring position as much as I think he can. Grant is due for a bounce-back year after his injury-plagued 2008. If Matt Ryan blows up like everyone seems to think he will, Roddy White might outperform my Greg Jennings pick, but I was willing to take that chance.

Picks I hate: Ronnie Brown was nothing impressive last season without the Wildcat. I doubt he’ll blow anyone away this year as it is possible that Pat White sees some of those reps in the Wildcat formation. I also find it hard to love Kevin Smith. If Detroit moves to a power running game, Smith may take some time to adjust from the one-cut style that made him so successful in college and in his play last year with the Lions.

Round: 4
(31) Bruno Boys.net – Anquan Boldin WR
(32) Call me Stat Boy – Marques Colston WR
(33) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Aaron Rodgers QB
(34) ffwriters withhair.com – Brandon Marshall WR
(35) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Darren McFadden RB
** (36) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Thomas Jones RB
(37) Nick Allen – Philip Rivers QB
(38) Team Lalley – Jonathan Stewart RB
(39) Team Dembinsky – Vincent Jackson WR
(40) John Lorge – Terrell Owens WR

My pick: If I was unhappy with any pick I made during this draft, it is probably this one. Jones looked like a bargain as he was falling here, but I was torn on biting the bullet or not. Despite his contract dispute and the rookie Shonn Greene now breathing down his neck, he’s still the starter for the Jets. If Mark Sanchez takes the reigns in just his first season, or even if Kellen Clemens holds the job for a year as a shaky signal caller, the Jets are likely to power the ball down the field with the run. Much like Michael Turner and LeRon McClain benefited last season from this offensive attack, Jones could see a lot of yardage coming his way. Regardless, he’s a decent backup with upside at this point for me.

Picks I like: Aaron Rodgers seems to be going at a good price for being one of the top finishers last season. I like him better than Philip Rivers and consider him more of a lock to be productive than Tony Romo since Green Bay has one of the finest wide receiver corps in the league. Surprising to see Colston go after Anquan Boldin, but I like both picks here in the fourth round. Each should see plenty of chances to score this season.

Picks I hate: Darren McFadden isn’t yet the clear starter for the Raiders, so drafting him in the fourth round seems unnecessary. I’m still concerned he may lose touchdowns to Michael Bush. Terrell Owens, for all the productivity he’s had the last several seasons, doesn’t feel like the same guy this season with the Bills. With Lee Evans running for home run catches, T.O. might draw attention on possession routes and lose out on the scoring that made him so valuable. I don’t like him this early.

Round: 5
(41) John Lorge – Wes Welker WR
(42) Team Dembinsky – Antonio Bryant WR
(43) Team Lalley – Chad Ochocinco WR
(44) Nick Allen – Roy E. Williams WR
** (45) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Kurt Warner QB
(46) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Derrick Ward RB
(47) ffwriters withhair.com – T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR
(48) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Knowshon Moreno RB
(49) Call me Stat Boy – Tony Romo QB
(50) Bruno Boys.net – Marshawn Lynch RB

My pick: I always worry about getting stuck with a terrible quarterback, and last year, I did in a few leagues. Rather than take that chance, I feel like Warner is a pretty good bargain in the fifth round. I already have my top receiver and a solid group of running backs. None of the wideouts on the board jumped out at me during this run on them.

Picks I like: While I passed on him, I do believe T.J. Houshmandzadeh will have a good year as Hasselbeck’s main target. As Shaun Alexander struggled, the Seahawks became a throwing machine, and they could return to those old ways with just Julius Jones in the running game this season. Despite his suspension, Lynch is one of the best backs in the league to start from week to week. He’s a nice bargain in the fifth round as a backup who could turn into a starter once he returns. Unfortunately for Bruno Boys, he’s only the second RB on their roster. Derrick Ward may not be the solid start in Tampa Bay, but I think he could demonstrate his usefulness this season now that he’s finally gotten out from behind Brandon Jacobs.

Picks I hate: Knowshon Moreno hasn’t signed a contract and has a long list of veterans sitting on the depth chart in Denver. Even if he starts, I don’t like his chances of being productive enough to start for fantasy. He’ll likely yield on passing downs and at the goal line to veterans. On top of that, the Josh McDaniels offense didn’t look all that friendly to running backs when I saw it in New England. I’d stay away from this rookie if I were you. Ochocinco is an expected pick here, but I personally dislike how inconsistent he is as a receiver. He’s boom or bust each week, and you’re forced to ride him out.

NFL: JAN 03 AFC Wild Card - Colts at Chargers

Round: 6
(51) Bruno Boys.net – Tony Gonzalez TE
(52) Call me Stat Boy – Braylon Edwards WR
(53) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Eddie Royal WR
(54) ffwriters withhair.com – Larry Johnson RB
(55) Gage Arnold is a Boss – DeSean Jackson WR
** (56) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Joseph Addai RB
(57) Nick Allen – Reggie Bush RB
(58) Team Lalley – Felix Jones RB
(59) Team Dembinsky – Jason Witten TE
(60) John Lorge – Antonio Gates TE

My pick: Another falling value caught my eye and kept me from taking my second wide receiver — Joseph Addai. Just last season, he was one of the top running backs off the board, and most of the problems the Colts encountered in 2008 were due to Jeff Saturday’s absence or Peyton Manning’s recovery. As the season went on, the Colts finally came together, but Addai had already taken most the abuse. After he recovers, I don’t think he’ll see his carries being given to rookie Donald Brown. Brown may relieve him, but the scoring opportunities are likely to still fall on Addai. I took him here as a backup and possible tradebait by midseason.

Picks I like: Felix Jones might end up starting in Dallas, and when he got a chance to carry the ball last season, Jones always did something with it. He’s a solid pick in the sixth round. The run on tight ends started here with Tony Gonzalez going first, and I think the sixth round is a good spot for this to begin. Obviously, Bruno Boys doesn’t worry about Gonzalez being less productive with the Falcons, but I prefer Witten with T.O. out of town. Reggie Bush comes at a decent price in this round with potential to be a good flex starter.

Picks I hate: While Larry Johnson is a pretty nice bargain here, it’s hard to like the guy. He seems like a shadow of his former self on the field, and Todd Haley’s offense in Arizona didn’t allow the running backs many chances to succeed.

Round: 7
(61) John Lorge – Chris Wells RB
(62) Team Dembinsky – LenDale White RB
(63) Team Lalley – Anthony Gonzalez WR
(64) Nick Allen – Dallas Clark TE
** (65) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Matt Schaub QB
(66) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Owen Daniels TE
(67) ffwriters withhair.com – Cedric Benson RB
(68) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Greg Olsen TE
(69) Call me Stat Boy – Matt Ryan QB
(70) Bruno Boys.net – Willie Parker RB

My pick: As we entered the seventh round, I saw the sleeper-ish wide receivers I was targeting falling to a good spot. I didn’t think anyone was going to pounce on them this round, so I went ahead and got my second quarterback before some teams had thought about getting their first. Matt Schaub has the potential to be a top-10 quarterback this season if he can stay healthy and utilize all the Texans’ weapons this season, but that is an “if.” I’d rather have him as a QB2 than a QB1, but he’s one of the top backups to have. If anything were to happen to Kurt Warner this season, I’d feel safe putting Schaub in my starting spot.

Picks I like: Willie Parker started off the season very hot last year before getting injured. If he comes back to the Steelers in game shape from this offseason, he’s a mighty fine fantasy backup or starter. Bruno Boys saves his running back situation by snagging him in the seventh round.

Picks I hate: LenDale White may have come back lighter this offseason, but it’s hard to see his value in the seventh round when you’re still in need of a RB2. He scored a lot of touchdowns, but I’d rather have someone who sees more touches like Willie Parker or Ray Rice. Even Cedric Benson is set to touch the ball more this season. Unless you own Chris Johnson, it’s a bit early to look at grabbing the Tennessee bowling ball.

Round: 8
(71) Bruno Boys.net – Donovan McNabb QB
(72) Call me Stat Boy – Jamal Lewis RB
(73) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Bernard Berrian WR
(74) ffwriters withhair.com – Carson Palmer QB
(75) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Ray Rice RB
** (76) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Kevin Walter WR
(77) Nick Allen – Santonio Holmes WR
(78) Team Lalley – Jay Cutler QB
(79) Team Dembinsky – Fred Taylor RB
(80) John Lorge – Lee Evans WR

My pick: With my quarterback and running back positions secure, I went to work on my wide receiver corps by grabbing the sleepers I had spotted in Round 7. Kevin Walter may not be high on a lot of radars, but he got plenty of grabs near the red zone in Houston. That makes him a quality WR3 with a chance to move up to WR2 status if the Texans can keep it going all season. It may seem like a reach, but there’s plenty of upside there that I didn’t want to miss.

Picks I like: Jamal Lewis will get his 1000 yards, even if you take him in the eighth round. Ray Rice, the current starter in Baltimore, is a steal this late in the draft. He’s the back you want to own on a team that loves to run the ball, and he may be the best bargain of the draft this year. A close second might be Carson Palmer, who, if back in his starter shape, could be in line for a big year. Plenty of people doubt Jay Cutler can produce the same stats with the Bears’ receivers that he did in Denver. I tend to think we’re underestimating him and a team who hasn’t utilized the quarterback position in years.

Picks I hate: Fred Taylor, despite his past production, will have a hard time getting those stats in the Patriots offense. I think he’ll be their primary runner this year, but Kevin Faulk will probably be on the field anytime the Pats are passing, which could be a lot this season with Brady back. Holmes isn’t my favorite receiver at this point either because of his boom or bust nature, much like Chad Ochocinco.

Round: 9
(81) John Lorge – Santana Moss WR
(82) Team Dembinsky – Ted Ginn Jr. WR
(83) Team Lalley – Donald Brown RB
(84) Nick Allen – Jerricho Cotchery WR
** (85) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Hines Ward WR
(86) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Devin Hester WR
(87) ffwriters withhair.com – Zach Miller TE
(88) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Earnest Graham RB
(89) Call me Stat Boy – Chris Cooley TE
(90) Bruno Boys.net – LeRon McClain RB

My pick: With my receiver corps almost secured, I thought it best to go with a sure thing — a receiver who might not do anything spectacular but is guaranteed to get the ball in his hands every week. Hines Ward fit the profile, and he’s the Steelers receiver I would rather have on my roster.

Picks I like: Unfortunately, I chose to play it safe with this pick, but if I had chanced it, I would have taken Devin Hester. As much as I liked Jay Cutler last year, I have to put my faith in Hester to take his game to another level this season. Ted Ginn Jr. may surprise us by maintaining the production he had at the end of last season, or he could fizzle if the move is made to put Chad Henne under center at some point this year. Santana Moss is unreliable and always an injury risk but a good pick here as well.

Picks I hate: LeRon McClain surprised us last season, but Baltimore has him classified as a fullback and claims to be putting the load on Ray Rice and Willis McGahee this season. While you can doubt that, I don’t think anyone was gunning to roster McClain in this portion of the draft. A late flier might get you a chance at the big fella.

NFL Football: New Orleans vs Chicago Dec. 11

Round: 10
(91) Bruno Boys.net – Ahmad Bradshaw RB
(92) Call me Stat Boy – Torry Holt WR
(93) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Donald Driver WR
(94) ffwriters withhair.com – Laveranues Coles WR
(95) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Mark Clayton WR
** (96) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Lance Moore WR
(97) Nick Allen – Fred Jackson RB
(98) Team Lalley – Michael Crabtree WR
(99) Team Dembinsky – Matt Cassel QB
(100) John Lorge – Donnie Avery WR

My pick: Lance Moore is another risky, sleeper-ish wide receiver this season that you can get on the cheap. With Colston out, he was the stud to have in New Orleans. Whether Colston makes it through the season or not this year, I expect Moore to stay involved in the offense. New Orleans saw fit to protect him this offseason and keep him around for a reason, and I think he has more upside than Driver, Coles, Clayton or Crabtree.

Picks I like: Torry Holt may not score a lot of touchdowns, but he’s likely to make David Garrard a decent yardage play every week. Fred Jackson could sneak more carries away from Marshawn Lynch this season if he impresses during the early weeks of the season when Lynch will have to sit out. Donnie Avery is the only big play threat that the Rams really have unless they develop Laurent Robinson or rediscover Ronald Curry. He could have a Calvin Johnson-like season if the Rams struggle to get points on the board late in games.

Picks I hate: Matt Cassel has very little going for him in his first year in Kansas City. Despite his performance last year for New England, I wouldn’t take a chance on him until all the starting quality quarterbacks are off the board. I don’t hate the Crabtree pick, but the rookie wide receiver isn’t on track to be an impact player right now with the way he’s been behaving in San Francisco thus far.

Round: 11
(101) John Lorge – LeSean McCoy RB
(102) Team Dembinsky – Darren Sproles RB
(103) Team Lalley – Dustin Keller TE
(104) Nick Allen – Tim Hightower RB
** (105) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Ben Roethlisberger QB
(106) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Steelers D/ST D/ST
(107) ffwriters withhair.com – Julius Jones RB
(108) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Kyle Orton QB
(109) Call me Stat Boy – Steve Breaston WR
(110) Bruno Boys.net – Willis McGahee RB

My pick: I was actually trying to take Julius Jones here, but the ESPN mock draft room froze up on me and forced me to log out. When I logged back in, Big Ben was mine. I wish there was a more in-depth reason behind this pick, but I saw no need for a third quarterback with both Kurt Warner and Matt Schaub already on the roster. Julius Jones would have given me another starting running back with upside since reports are that he’ll be the workhorse of the Seattle offense this season. I’d feel very safe with Forte, Slaton, Thomas Jones, Addai and Julius Jones on my roster, and they might even provide me with enough depth to make a few trades throughout the season.

Picks I like: Dustin Keller has a lot of upside in New York whether Clemens or Sanchez is declared the starter. He showed promise last season with Brett Favre while competing for time on the field, and he could be either starter’s safety net this season. Of course, I like the Julius Jones selection because I wanted to make it two picks earlier. I’m not a huge fan of handcuffing — would rather have another starter on my roster as an option any given week — but Lorge and Dembinsky play it safe by handcuffing McCoy with Westbrook and Sproles with L.T. If he grasps Josh McDaniels’ system, Kyle Orton could actually put up backup-worthy numbers in Denver. He’s no Tom Brady, but McDaniels did make Cassel look like a hero last season.

Picks I hate: No one knows how Arizona will use Tim Hightower this season. He may ride the bench while Chris Wells takes most of the workload; he may be the touchdown vulture he was with Edgerrin James in Arizona. Either way, he shouldn’t be drafted before more cemented running backs like Julius Jones and Leon Washington. I’m not big on taking defenses early, and I think it’s too soon for the Steelers pick in just Round 11.

Round: 12
(111) Bruno Boys.net – Giants D/ST D/ST
(112) Call me Stat Boy – Leon Washington RB
(113) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Jamaal Charles RB
(114) ffwriters withhair.com – Domenik Hixon WR
(115) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Rashard Mendenhall RB
** (116) FantasyFootball Fools.com – John Carlson TE
(117) Nick Allen – David Garrard QB
(118) Team Lalley – Eli Manning QB
(119) Team Dembinsky – Kellen Winslow TE
(120) John Lorge – Ravens D/ST D/ST

My pick: I waited a little too long to take a tight end, but John Carlson should continue to be highly involved in the offense with Hasselbeck healthy. Hopefully, T.J. Houshmandzadeh’s presence should leave him open. I don’t mind settling for the young tight end here in the 12th round.

Picks I like: It seems that very few people believe that Hixon can takeover the spot previously held by Plaxico Burress in the Giants’ offense, but I am one of the believers. He was productive before his injury as Eli Manning’s No. 1 receiver, and I think he’s capable of managing the job as the Giants’ rookies get up to speed. David Garrard finished the season as the No. 10 quarterback, even after all the struggles with his terrible offensive line. He’s a value in the 12th round with Torry Holt now as his No. 1 target.

Picks I hate: Again, a defense goes early, and I don’t like it. The Giants barely finished as a top-10 defense last season, and now they have lost their defensive coordinator, which could have a larger effect than many people think. I wouldn’t want to pay a high price for their services only to watch their struggles exposed twice a season by the Cowboys and Eagles. Eli Manning, while productive in small stretches, is an unreliable fantasy quarterback. I would rather see Hasselbeck or Trent Edwards on my roster in front of him.

Round: 13
(121) John Lorge – Eagles D/ST D/ST
(122) Team Dembinsky – Brian Robiskie WR
(123) Team Lalley – Derrick Mason WR
(124) Nick Allen – Titans D/ST D/ST
** (125) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Jerome Harrison RB
(126) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Trent Edwards QB
(127) ffwriters withhair.com – Matt Hasselbeck QB
(128) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Ricky Williams RB
(129) Call me Stat Boy – Vikings D/ST D/ST
(130) Bruno Boys.net – Chester Taylor RB

My pick: Just as everyone starts to think about kickers and defenses, I’m still thinking sleepers. Jerome Harrison has been the talk of Eric Mangini’s offseason programs, and he’s only got Jamal Lewis ahead of him on the depth chart. Mangini is talking about using him in a Leon Washington role this season, which might even make him the more productive back to own in Cleveland. He was definitely worth a flier this late in the draft.

Picks I like: Derrick Mason could return and be a solid No. 1. It’s worth a shot. Trent Edwards and Matt Hasselbeck are both QB2s with upside much like Matt Schaub who could work their way into QB1s if they outperform their draft stock this season. We don’t know how T.O. will affect the passing game in Buffalo, but Edwards ceiling is higher with him there. Ricky Williams, sharing time with Ronnie Brown, should outperform this draft stock as well.

Picks I hate: No major complaints in this round other than an early jump on defenses. I like to take mine in the final rounds. The Eagles were great last season, but they’re defensive coordinator position is a question mark right now.

Round: 14
(131) Bruno Boys.net – Bobby Engram WR
(132) Call me Stat Boy – Justin Gage WR
(133) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Jets D/ST D/ST
(134) ffwriters withhair.com – Josh Morgan WR
(135) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Miles Austin WR
** (136) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Percy Harvin WR
(137) Nick Allen – Jerious Norwood RB
(138) Team Lalley – Kevin Curtis WR
(139) Team Dembinsky – Sammy Morris RB
(140) John Lorge – Chad Pennington QB

My pick: Now that I have a flier at RB on my roster, I wanted to take a chance on some receiver talent. Percy Harvin should be used in many ways this season to keep things interesting and keep defenses off of Adrian Peterson. Some fantasy leagues may even let you play him at running back and wide receiver. With more likely breakouts like Miles Austin off the board, I liked his chances.

Picks I like: Bobby Engram is a great possession guy who might just have another year left in him. Gage was the No. 1 for Tennessee and likely to be worth a start when the Titans play teams that will force them to go to the air. Miles Austin is my pick to be the No. 2 in Dallas opposite Roy Williams, and his big play potential should show in any time he gets on the field.

Picks I hate: I don’t really dislike any of the fliers in this round. It’s really just about who you believe in the most. Jumping at the chance to take a defense in this round is perfectly acceptable, and the Jets might have a strong season if they bring the Baltimore game plan to New York with a strong run game and stout defense.

Round: 15
(141) John Lorge – Laurence Maroney RB
(142) Team Dembinsky – Dolphins D/ST D/ST
(143) Team Lalley – Panthers D/ST D/ST
(144) Nick Allen – Harry Douglas WR
** (145) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Cowboys D/ST D/ST
(146) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Stephen Gostkowski K
(147) ffwriters withhair.com – Chargers D/ST D/ST
(148) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Chris Chambers WR
(149) Call me Stat Boy – Deion Branch WR
(150) Bruno Boys.net – Patrick Crayton WR

My pick: In a round where everyone grabbed defenses, I somehow managed to land the Cowboys. With a questionable offense, I’m projecting that their defense steps up to not only keep the sack totals high but also get more interceptions than they did last season. Improved turnovers should make them enough of a fantasy force to contend against the Giants, Eagles and Redskins twice this season. Besides, I’m a Cowboys fan, and I should have at least one part of the Cowboys on my roster, right?

Picks I like: Harry Douglas, Chris Chambers and Deion Branch are all worthy grabs as fliers this late in the draft. All of them could turn into valuable WR3s or even spot-starters as WR2s.

Picks I hate: I think Maroney’s days in New England are done, but this late, why not take a chance? I guess just any kicker isn’t good enough for Gage.

Round: 16

NFL: JAN 11 AFC Divisional Game - Chargers at Steelers

(151) Bruno Boys.net – Ryan Longwell K
(152) Call me Stat Boy – Mason Crosby K
(153) Tosten Burks is On a Boat – Garrett Hartley K
(154) ffwriters withhair.com – Neil Rackers K
(155) Gage Arnold is a Boss – Shonn Greene RB
** (156) FantasyFootball Fools.com – Nate Kaeding K
(157) Nick Allen – Nick Folk K
(158) Team Lalley – David Akers K
(159) Team Dembinsky – Jason Elam K
(160) John Lorge – Kris Brown K

My pick: The Chargers scored plenty of points last season. If L.T. struggles to put it in from short yardage, Kaeding is the one getting fantasy points. I think he’s worth a shot, but if he doesn’t work out, I can always change him out midseason. He’s just my kicker, and there isn’t much separating the elite kickers from the kickers who are just okay these days.

Picks I like: They’re all kickers … I don’t really like any of them all that much. Shonn Greene is a worthy flier, and he could steal touchdowns if Thomas Jones loses a step or gets on the team’s bad side. I like him a lot, but he’s just Gage’s prize for taking a kicker in Round 15.

Picks I hate: It’s hard to get upset about kickers, except for Kris Brown — who spells Chris with a K like that?

And so, we conclude last week’s mock draft with Fantasy Football Writers with Hair. For the full team rosters, see FFWWH’s post on the mock draft. FFWWH’s analysts had this to say about my final roster:

Sloan’s Roster

Burks: I love the first three picks (Forte at No. 5, Slaton at 16, Jennings at 25), I love the QB depth (Warner, Schaub, Roethlisberger), and I love Jerome Harrison. The only bad thing I can say is that he has no No. 2 wide receiver. Jacob has two or three No. 3′s. But nonetheless, snaps for Sloan.

A-Koz: Not bad. While I said I’m not a huge fan of Thomas Jones, he’s a solid backup and I suppose that Addai is too. His No. 2 WR is going to be a revolving door this season, but if you throw a dart enough times… Joseph Addai is his worst pick, but I’m not afraid to admit that this all stems from my hate of him last season while getting Lance Moore in a potent Saints’ offense was smart money provided he can stay healthy.

Did I miss any big picks? Would you have done it differently? As always, the comments are yours.

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