Week 2 Pickups: Spend not, want not

Let me preface this pickups post by noting that no one has jumped out a must add in Week 1. We had some very impressive performances, some disappointing ones, and a crazy Monday night, but most of the explosive pickups like tight ends Jordan Cameron and Jared Cook were drafted. And those leagues that left Julius Thomas on the waiver wire probably have their teams stocked with tight ends across the board.

You could be looking for quarterback help, but I already told you all about Terrelle Pryor’s abilities before Week 1.

If you’re using a FAAB, otherwise known as a free agent acquisition system, I wouldn’t put any money down on these guys and just take what your league gives you.

I think there will be some game-breaking pickups later this season, as there always are, more worthy of spending the big bucks. So I wouldn’t advise blowing your budget on the likes of Julian Edelman, who could dwindle in value as quickly as he has risen.

So here’s who I got. Continue reading

Old Vikings Marching Down a Street

Week 4 Pickups: The One With All the Vikings

Old Vikings Marching Down a StreetI’m 0-3 in one league, and I can’t stand it. So I’ll be all over the wires this week. You stand to benefit from my helpful or misguided research.

Obviously, we had an eventful weekend of football. Or whatever you call the sport the replacement refs are now calling for us.

Unfortunately for us all, there isn’t too much on the wire unless you’re in a very shallow league. Leshoure is probably owned. Brown probably got snatched before his start Thursday night. That leaves slim pickings if you’re in need of a running back because the injuries don’t seem too severe to the starters who went down Week 3.

As always, my pickups are listed in the order I would go after them and with FAAB estimations.

Week 4 Pickups

Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions (75%+)
If you waited this long, sorry. I talked about him before he hit the field. You’re going to have to luck out to land Leshoure, who looks to be the Lions’ preferred rusher. At least until Jahvid Best returns.

Andre Brown, RB, Giants (25%)
You probably missed your chance at him by now, but Brown could continue to see action even when Bradshaw returns from his injury.

Jerome Simpson, WR, Vikings (15% if need be)
There’s a lot of hype around Simpson’s return from suspension this week with the Vikings offense moving the ball this year. I think you have to jump on him before he breaks out. He’s my top recommendation this week besides Leshoure.

Jake Locker, QB, Titans (10-15%)
This is the kind of potential we’ve been waiting to see. With Britt getting healthy (and MAYBE a running game showing up sometime soon), Locker should put together a nice season as a QB2 with QB1 upside.

Christian Ponder, QB, Vikings (10-15%)
To follow his new WR target, I’d offer up the Vikings QB, who looks good enough to enter QB1 territory these next few weeks. His schedule is excellent if you’re looking for bye week replacement help.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings (10%)
Rudolph caught two touchdowns this week, which probably serves as his coming out party, but Rudolph is worth owning in all leagues as we enter the byes. He’s a great target for Ponder near the redzone. And Simpson’s return should open up this offense, not take opportunities away.

Andrew Hawkins, WR, Bengals (5-10%)
The Hawk can play. I’m ready to grab him now, and you should, too. He’s shown he can produce with few targets. I expect inconsistency, but he’s solid enough to be rostered.

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons (<10%)
Stash him now before anyone else sees him. I’m high on Rodgers, and as a result, high on the demise of Michael Turner. Turner can’t even drive fast.

Donnie Avery, WR, Colts (5-10%)
Without Austin Collie for the rest of the year, Avery now gets my confidence.

Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (<5%)
He looks to be a lot more involved in the offense this year than years past. He’s worth acquiring as the reigning No. 3 fantasy tight end.

Leonard Hankerson, WR, Redskins (<5%)
He’s secured a starting spot, even when Garcon returns. For now, he’s getting to run as the first read for Robert Griffin III. Just don’t do anything crazy like I did this weekend if you pick him up.

Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals (15%)
I don’t love the Arizona running game, but Williams looks to be the best part of it.

Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins (10-15%)
Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins (5-10%)

The more explosive and dependable of the two Dolphins running backs, I think Miller can emerge if given the opportunity. Daniel Thomas will probably get more action, but he may be owned in most leagues.

Tashard Choice, RB, Bills (10%)
Whoever starts in Buffalo is going to rack up yards. They just run the ball well up there. But there is no guarantee Choice even gets this one start in Week 4 if Fred Jackson can get in a full week of practice. Be careful how much you bid on him here.

Shaun Hill, QB, Lions (<10% if you own Stafford)
If you’re in a very deep league and want to make sure you get points for the Lions’ passing game, you might need Hill to play safe with Stafford’s injury. But it sounds as if Stafford could make the start Week 4 if the team lets him.

Stashes

I’m not yet ready to bite on Nate Burleson (maybe in PPR), Brandon Stokley, Jacoby Jones, or T.Y. Hilton, but they may be worthy stashes if you have the roster room. Cecil Shorts is hard to buy as long as he’s still in Jacksonville.

Brandon Myers and Jordan Cameron look like they can ball, but the tight end position is DEEP this season.

I’m not sure what to think of Ronnie Hillman or Lance Ball just yet if McGahee sits out Week 4, but I think I’d rather stash Ball if I’m a McGahee owner.

Don’t forget about Bilal Powell just yet, but I don’t think it’s an emergency that you get him on your roster. Especially not when he faces the 49ers this week.

Drops

Austin Collie (sadly), Stephen Hill, and Greg Little are all droppable if you have a more promising guy on the waiver wire. David Wilson is bordering on droppable territory, but we’ll have to see how he’s used once Ahmad Bradshaw returns to the field.

Sorry to Torain on your Week 5 waivers parade

Another week down in the NFL season, another crop of new running backs to go after. I’ll run these free agents down in the order I’d target them on the Week 5 waiver wire. Hope the bye weeks treat you kindly these next few weeks.

RUNNING BACKS

Ryan Torain (Redskins)

He’s the most lucrative pickup of the week after putting up numbers for a stretch last season and with a nice schedule after the bye week, but you still have to worry about Shanahan pulling a “Shanahan.” In a few weeks, it could easily be Roy Helu we’re talking about for the Redskins. If you can acquire Torain and package him for a safer RB option, you’ll probably come out on top. He’s a high-risk to get injured or lose his starting role (and that’s if he even earned it with his Week 4 output, which is no guarantee).

Stevan Ridley (Patriots)

Great in the preseason, and now he’s great in the regular season. Much like Washington, it’s still a messy backfield in New England, but I feel better about Ridley, at least for now, than I do Torain.

Isaac Redman (Steelers)

Mendenhall looks like he’ll sit for at least a week, and even though the Steelers don’t have an offensive line to speak of, Redman would be a RB2 start as long as he’s away.

Kendall Hunter (49ers)

He’s starting to see touches alongside Frank Gore and made the best of them, but Gore didn’t look too shabby in Week 4 either. Hunter looks like part of a timeshare that may not work out for either back’s long-term value.

Bernard Scott (Bengals)

We’re still waiting to hear what the commish will decide about Benson’s suspension, but it doesn’t look like it’ll happen this week. Stash Scott if you can afford to, but I wouldn’t blame you for jumping ship for one of the more promising (or more instantly gratifying) RB options on the waiver wire this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Jacoby Jones (Texans)

Sounds like Andre Johnson will miss several weeks. While Jones is no direct replacement, he should see increased targets in AJ’s absence. Stash him for now if you can afford the roster spot, but he’s not someone I would rush out to grab. I believe it’s far more likely we just watch the Texans ride Arian Foster for a few weeks. Sorry, Schaub owners.

TIGHT ENDS

Jared Cook (Titans)

He was a sleeper in the preseason, but Cook never looked the part once the games started counting. Now without Kenny Britt, Cook might be a top playmaker for this Hasselbeck-led Titans’ offense. He aggressively took one of his two catches to the house in Week 4. It’s worth grabbing him to see if he can do it again this week when Hasselbeck looks his way.

Starting Beanie Wells over Andre Johnson: Smart Play or Crazy Talk?

In a fantasy football group I participate in each week, Fantasy Football Fanatics on LinkedIn, I recommended going with Beanie Wells in a flex spot over Andre Johnson this week.

Am I crazy or is this smart strategy? I’m going with the numbers here.

My argument for going with Beanie:

There is definitely a huge risk factor in starting Beanie. Still, he’s a hot hand and I’d go with my gut on him.

I really don’t think A.J. is going to go this week. He has a bruised lung. That hurts (I can only imagine.) Besides, the Texans know they probably don’t need him to beat the Bills.

If he plays, he’ll likely be limited and share time with Jacoby Jones and Andre Davis. Then, you have to consider how tough the Bills have been against opposing wide receivers. Actually, they’ve been the best. Just check out the stats at FF Today. Meanwhile, Buffalo ranks first on this chart for fantasy points allowed to running backs. Steve Slaton, I like. Andre, I don’t.

This could be Andre Johnson’s worst week of this season, so that’s where I’m coming from in going with Beanie vs. Carolina (tenth most fantasy points allowed to running backs) in a game that could be controlled by defense and the running games.

I am fine with starting either, but Beanie’s matchup wins my vote.

It’s definitely one of those decisions that I’m going out on a limb to make. The safe play is always to start your studs. At least when they fail, you can say they didn’t show up for you, rather than admitting that you made a stupid guess.

So what say the foolish masses? Is this a smart play? Would you start Beanie? Or would you rather play it safe with Andre Johnson, banged-up and facing a receiver-squashing Bills defense?