Week 11 Pickups make Nick Foles of us all

We should have listened to Cecil Lammey last week. His two big waiver wire suggestions are in the mix in a much bigger way in Week 11.

I’m keeping the same format as we’ve been doing the last two weeks. Feel free to see those past posts for more players you might have missed for the stretch run.

Week 11 Pickups

Those who have followed my pickups in the past know I’m a fan of Danario Alexander. He’s got fantastic hands and always seems capable of taking it to the house…when his knees agree with him, that is.

If Robert Meachem could loan Alexander his knees, Alexander might be a lock as the No. 1 wide receiver for the Chargers the rest of the way. As it is, you’ll have to risk Alexander staying on the field. He’s still worth adding.

And if you’re still in need of receiver help, don’t forget about Cecil Shorts. And Donald Jones looks like he will keep producing in Buffalo, especially in PPR leagues with his consistent catches.

While it’s hard to know which Saints running back to start in any given week, Chris Ivory looks like the most explosive back in New Orleans.

Mark Ingram had the most touches, and Darren Sproles should return soon. But for the second week in a row, Ivory found the end zone. It makes you wonder if the Saints’ coaches will be able to keep him off the field.

Pierre Garcon will “test” his foot injury this week. He may even try to play. I wouldn’t consider starting him, but if you have the space to put him on your bench, this is the week to stash him away. Robert Griffin III needs his No. 1 target back if he can get him.

Remember to grab  Beanie Wells and Cedric Benson  for your roster as well if no one else has hidden them away yet. Wells should return in Week 12, and Benson could help you in the fantasy playoffs.

Greg Olsen was the Panthers offense in Week 10. It’s nice to see his matchups finally pay off. Against Tampa Bay in Week 11, he could stay hot.

If you are quarterbackless — first of all, what a terrible word…and a what terrible thing to be — Jake Locker makes for an intriguing grab after the Titans dismantled the Dolphins. Locker didn’t do much, but he certainly gave the Titans a spark.

I’ve mentioned him in previous weeks, but I didn’t want anyone to forget about him while he’s on bye in Week 11. When Locker returns, he could show us the Titans we expected to see this season with him at the controls.

Nick Foles and Colin Kaepernick could both make for interesting one-week plays if you have a quarterback on bye this week while Michael Vick and Alex Smith recover from their concussions.

It’s very possible Smith will play this week, but in Vick’s case, Foles may be the starter for the rest of the season in Philly if the organization decides to move on and look towards the future.

Foles could have QB2 value, but it’s hard to see much more than that with the Eagles’ poor line play and his inexperience.

At least those two young quarterbacks might be more exciting to own than Byron Leftwich or Jason Campbell.

By the way, credit to Rotoworld’s Chris Wesseling for beating me to the perfect headline for this week. It would have been so fitting here on Fools!

On the Waiver Wire: Remaining Week 11 Pickups, Fantasy Football Playoff Sleepers, Stashes

It’s getting to be that time when you just have to roll with what you’ve got, and there’s not much talent left on the waiver wire. So I took a few extra hours this week to peruse all the latest and greatest analysis to recommend just a few guys who I think should be owned in every league as we head down the stretch.

Some of these guys might help you in the playoffs. Some might help you right away. But the important this is that they are far more valuable than a backup kicker, second tight end or platoon of defenses at this point in the season.

If you have concerns about whom you should drop to claim these guys, leave your questions in the comments.

And don’t miss my roundup of waiver wire links at the bottom of this post. There were some great contributions this week from around the Web that offer up even more players than the ones I have listed here.

High Priority Adds

I bet these guys are on your radar, and in all likelihood, they’re on someone’s roster already. But if not, you need to make sure you get your hands on them because they should make an impact in the next few weeks.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers

I’ve mentioned Jackson the last several weeks as a player to add if someone dropped him while he was sitting out the season. By all accounts, he’ll be ready to go and in Pro Bowl form in Week 12 when he finally takes the field, and he’ll have Philip Rivers throwing to him plenty during those juicy fantasy playoff matchups. Get him while you can.

Mario Manningham, WR, Giants

As long as Steve Smith’s injury keeps him off the field, Manningham will be a true stud at wide receiver. His stat line in Week 10 with Smith out was no fluke. Make sure he’s on a roster.

Louis Murphy and/or Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders

Murphy should return from his injuries this week to play the Steelers, but Ford was the wide receiver Campbell made into a superstar in Week 9, just before the Raiders’ bye. With Campbell remaining the starter, he could look to Ford again since he showed such trust for the speedster when the game was on the line. Ford could cut into Murphy’s snaps, but if the Raiders know what they’re doing, they’ll start Murphy and Ford at receiver, and push Darrius Heyward-Bey into the third receiver spot.

The Raiders have some great, GREAT matchups in the fantasy playoffs in which their explosive rushing attack with Darren McFadden will open up opportunities for these receivers. I’d stash one on your roster and see what develops. They should start quietly this week against the Steelers. I’d assume Ford is no longer on waivers after his big week last week, but if so, I’d choose him first and Murphy second.

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills

C.J. Spiller went down with a thigh injury in Week 10 and gave Fred Jackson the stage to show off his skills against the Lions. He didn’t disappoint. It wasn’t too long ago that Fred Jackson was making a name as one of the top backs in fantasy. Remember that? His schedule isn’t fantastic, but if Ryan Fitzpatrick uses him in the passing game like he’s used Steve Johnson, Jackson will produce enough to remind us of his 2009 production. He’s a startable option this week against the Bengals.

The Ones I Have to Mention

I don’t love them, but these players made a splash in Week 10, and I have to mention them. Otherwise, I have to give up my fantasy football blogging license, and that cost me a whole $5.

Keiland Williams, RB, Redskins

Shanahan has never played fantasy football…or does he? Did his team need some points from Rex Grossman when he decided it was time to bench McNabb for the two-minute drill?

Was his opponent starting Ryan Torain going into Monday night when he decided Torain couldn’t see the field if his hammy wouldn’t loosen up? Sure, this decision might have been out of his hands, but maybe Shanahan kept the team’s locker room a few degrees colder to make loosening that hamstring that much more difficult on his prized runner.

It sounds like something a guy in my league might do.

In reality, I think it’s safe to assume he just doesn’t care about how his coaching decisions affect fantasy teams, and so we saw a huge helping of Keiland Williams on Monday night. His final numbers were impressive, but he was about the only thing working in the Redskins offense after a miserable defensive showing allowed the Eagles offensive to have a record-setting first quarter.

He could start in Week 11 against the Titans, but by Week 12, I would suspect that Ryan Torain and/or Clinton Portis would be back in the mix and taking away from Williams’ value. There’s always the chance that Shanahan takes a liking to Williams and makes him his new favorite, but Torain has always had Shanahan’s eye. When he’s healthy, I think he’s the best back to own in this offense.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots

Don’t go nuts about his three-touchdown performance in Week 10. The Steelers weren’t stopping him, so the Patriots kept going there. Aaron Hernandez is still there and will get catches too as long as the Patriots don’t shift their offense in Gronkowski’s direction.

Gronk got so many passing plays (with a nod to Sigmund Bloom for pointing this out) because it was a package designed for Gronkowski, not Hernandez that kept beating the Steelers. I trust that the Patriots will continue to adapt and move away from that package as the season continues.

But if you’re in a touchdown-only league or a deep league with so little on the waiver wire that you’re taking chances at tight end, Gronkowski is not a terrible play. I just don’t like the idea of betting on Patriots to win me a championship.

Mike Goodson, RB, Panthers

I don’t love any Panthers as long as Jimmy Clausen remains their starter. The offense just won’t move well enough until he’s matured as an NFL quarterback. But Good son remains the starter this week against the Ravens.

The Panthers placed DeAngelo Williams on IR today, which means Goodson’s probably the guy until Sutton or Jonathan Stewart returns from their injuries. So he’s a starting running back, but there isn’t much to go with here. His schedule is brutal down the stretch. Other than two soft ones against Seattle and Arizona, the Panthers face the Ravens, Browns, Falcons (twice)  and Steelers the rest of the season.

Overlooked Playoff Quarterbacks

So you’re still holding onto Brett Favre? These quarterbacks could produce top 10 numbers between now and your fantasy championship. Don’t let them waste away on the waiver wire.

Shaun Hill, QB, Lions

The Lions throw the ball plenty, and Hill is the likely start the rest of the way. The schedule isn’t so nice once the fantasy playoffs start, but it isn’t too shabby right now. If you’re outside the playoff bubble, Hill might be able to get you in there.

Jon Kitna, QB, Cowboys

Don’t love the idea of betting on any Dallas player in these critical weeks, but we have at least one week of evidence to support a Jason Garrett revival in Big D. You can’t go wrong stashing Kitna on the bench and seeing what he’s worth. Plus, this week’s matchup with the Lions could be a great time to use him.

Troy Smith, QB, 49ers

You may not be convinced of his talent, but his schedule is something to believe in: Bucs, Cards in next two weeks; Seattle, Chargers, Rams during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16). He’s one sleeper quarterback I’d try to put on my bench if there wasn’t much out there.

Jason Campbell, QB, Raiders

I’m digging a little deep with this one, but he does have a fantastic playoffs schedule. With Louis Murphy and Zach Miller returning to the field, he could be that extra push you need to make it to a championship. In Weeks 14-16, the Raiders face the Jaguars, Broncos, and Colts — the last two of those at home in Oakland.

Lottery Pick Wide Receivers

These are the high-risk receivers who make me wish I had enough bench spots to hold onto them all…

Danario Alexander, WR, Rams

Alexander was a favorite of mine when he finally got his chance to start for the Rams. I loved the guy. Not only because of the opportunity in that offense but also because of his work ethic.

He went down with injury, and that may have forced some owners to let him go during the byes. But now that he’s back on the practice field, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to grab him. He could shine again if he gets back on the field against the Broncos, Cardinals, Chiefs, or 49ers in the coming weeks.

Seyi Ajirotutu, WR, Chargers

Vincent Jackson’s the sure thing in the Chargers passing game, and Malcom Floyd is your second best bet. But if you can’t land either one of those receivers, I don’t think taking a chance on Ajirotutu is such a bad idea.

What if he stays on the field as the third receiver? We all know Naanee could stand to have someone push him for playing time. And the Chargers passing game is far too valuable to overlook with the Chiefs, 49ers, and Bengals on their playoff schedule Weeks 14-16.

Arrelious Benn, WR, Bucs

Benn was drafted higher than Mike Williams this year, even though it’s taken him longer to get on the field. He’s got plenty of talent, and he’s shown it through his efficiency.

I don’t believe he’s dropped a pass yet, and he’s gotten a touchdown for two weeks straight. If you take a chance on him, you could cash in when he faces the Redskins, Lions, and Seahawks in Weeks 14-16. He just needs to get more passes his way from Josh Freeman.

Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings

Sure, he’s talented, but Brett Favre is falling apart on the field. So Rice may just go onto IR rather than risk further injury in a lost season for the Vikings. Besides, that playoffs schedule is not kind.

Tight Ends to Tie Up Loose Ends

I fell victim to the double tight end curse this season by drafting both Dallas Clark and Jermichael Finley. I’ve managed to make it as far as I have with the likes of Marcedes Lewis, Tony Moeaki, and Brandon Pettigrew. If you’re hurting even worse and need some help at that position, here’s a list of names I like. I don’t necessarily have any favorites, but I’ll list them in order of my trust of them and their potential.

Benjamin Watson, TE, Browns, looks like Colt McCoy’s favorite target the rest of the way.

Anthony Fasano, TE, Dolphins, could be emerging and was once an understudy to Jason Witten when he was a Cowboy. Thigpen could show him some love throughout the fantasy playoffs.

Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals, one good week does not a stud make, but he’s got plenty of wide receiver talent around him that should prevent him from getting any defensive attention.

Delanie Walker, TE, 49ers, not quite the talent level of Vernon Davis, but Troy Smith has given him plenty of love lately. He’s got a chance to steal some of that production. (H/T to The Audible for bringing Walker to my attention)

More waiver wires I liked from around the Web:

  • The FF Geek Blog: One spreadsheet to rule them all.
  • The Scores Report: Goes deep at every position, including a few tight ends that could save you at that position for the playoffs and a great list of wide receivers ranked in the order you should pick them up.
  • Pro Football Focus: So many names, you’re bound to find an answer to your roster woes.
  • ESPN’s Matthew Berry: A great look at the players with playoff potential and whom you need to use to get you there.
  • The Hazean: Gives us a list of names that might be there to help you these next few weeks.
  • NFL.com: Hits the highlights.
  • Sports Illustrated: Scraping the barrel on running backs, and don’t neglect to check out the Fire sale, a hidden gem of players who are rising, falling, and the ones who could win for you this week.
  • Fanhouse and  Razzball suggest some names that may still be out there, even as teams start to strengthen their bench rosters and drop those bye week fills. (You should be doing the same!)
  • FF Librarian is boycotting Vick and compiling even more fantasy waiver wire links to enjoy.
  • Hatty Waiver Wire Guru: Building suspense by listing your waiver wire targets in video form.
  • FF Toolbox: Most of these names will be snatched up or were snatched up last week, but there’s always a chance, right?

On the Wire: Week 10 Pickups, Slim Pickings but Quick Mobile Picks

Updated: Wed, Nov. 11.

I’ve been in California this week at a conference. I don’t know how these people handle football starting at 10 a.m. on Sundays. It’s just plain weird.

But the important thing here is that I haven’t had Internet all week. Sorry, hotel, but I am not going to pay a limb per day to get on the Interwebs. I’m actually writing this right now from my G1 phone.

So hang with me. I’ll come back on Wednesday to flesh this one out with more options, but for now, I’ll cover all that my thumbs can endure. (Note: Now updated with a real keyboard and some of the skin left on my thumbs from writing this the first time on a smartphone.)

Hot Claims

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: If no one has jumped on him yet, Larry Johnson’s release leaves him as the most valuable back in Kansas City. That value is somewhere between Adrian Peterson and a shiny penny.

Chris Chambers, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Two touchdowns? But I thought he was dead. Don’t see him duplicating this performance, and he is a Chief after all. I guess if you are desperate for wide receiver help, he is, in fact, NOT dead. PPR leagues might put more value on him since we know Kansas City will be throwing.

Ladell Betts, RB, Washington Redskins: Clinton Portis finally went down. Betts has filled in extremely well in the past, but this offense is not up to par with the one Betts stepped into years ago. That said, Betts filling in for Portis might be good for the Redskins.

Jason Hill, WR, San Francisco 49ers: He’s been on the cusp of a fantasy breakout before, but Jason Hill may get another chance if Isaac Bruce misses this week’s game. Hill had two touchdowns this past week, and Alex Smith likely had plenty of practice time with him while he was on the second-team offense earlier this season.

If you have the room on your roster to speculate on any of these guys, you might as well.

Fantasy Filler

Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders: Looks like he’s back and able to start this week against the Chiefs, but can we trust him? I’ll believe it when he can turn in two back-to-back fantasy-start-worthy performances. Haven’t seen one solid one yet this season.

Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit Lions: There may be few touchdowns in his future this season, but the rookie tight end is finally becoming enough of a factor in this offense to trust if you are desperate.

Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Three touchdowns…but look at those attempts. Don’t get more excited than you need to be about another rookie quarterback. He’s an emergency backup option for now.

Brady Quinn, QB, Cleveland Browns: ESPN reports that he will get the start this week for Cleveland, but I wouldn’t expect much more than what we saw the last time around. This move is more likely just to see if either of the Browns’ quarterbacks will be worth keeping this offseason.

I’d rather have Vince Young, Chad Henne or even Josh Freeman on my roster.

Long-term Investments

Larry Johnson, RB, Free Agent: There’s a chance he lands somewhere and matters. There’s also a chance he plays Xbox with Shaun Alexander every Sunday for the rest of the season.

Lance Long, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: He had eight catches this past week. Shows promise, but I’d like to see it again before I use a roster spot on him. He is familiar with Todd Haley’s system from his time on the Arizona practice squad last year.

Droppables

Patrick Crayton is not to be trusted. Justin Fargas may sink down the depth chart now that McFadden is healthy enough to start. Willie Parker may never be healthy again. Glen Coffee is concussed. Jason Campbell’s not healthy either. Domenik Hixon and Muhsin Muhammed just aren’t going to win you any games.

Foolish Thoughts: Magical phone refresh voodoo makes Vernon Davis score touchdowns

I got stuck watching the New England Patriots abuse the Tampa Bay Buccaneers across the pond in London during the early games. I thought we sent this game overseas so that no one here would have to watch it?

While the action was riveting, oh, so riveting, I found myself checking my fantasy football scores on my phone. About halfway through the early games, I noticed Vernon Davis had scored me a touchdown. Nice work. I went against the stats in starting him, but, as ESPN pointed out, the tight ends who had been shut down by the Texans weren’t exactly in the elite class.

So happy in my good choices, I hit refresh, only to discover that Davis had another touchdown. Now, at this point, I had not seen any cutaways to the San Francisco game yet to show me what was happening in Houston. All I knew is that every time I refreshed my phone, Vernon Davis scored a touchdown.

Oh, this is getting good. I was mopping my opponent with my early starters, and I’d discovered a magical wishing well of fantasy points.

So I refreshed again, getting greedy this time. And once again, touchdown. Had I discovered a voodoo trick for fantasy football? Would it work on anyone else besides Vernon Davis?

I had no idea what I was doing, but I found myself hitting refresh again. But this time, nothing. My fantasy luck had run out. Game over.

But next week, I’m definitely refreshing my phone a few times during the San Francisco game to see if I can get it to work again.

Dear Patrick Crayton, I’d be the first one to tell you, so here goes: Miles Austin is legit. Your best chance of getting back in the starting lineup is by replacing Roy Williams. Sadly, that might not be that hard to do with as many key passes as Williams dropped on Sunday.

The Cowboys finally looked like the team that won 13 games in 2007 again on Sunday, but it’s not time for celebration just yet. It’s still hard to trust Tony Romo, who has one of the hardest schedules of any quarterback in the league the rest of the way. As long as Miles Austin keeps scoring two touchdowns per game, that view on Romo may change.

Donald Brown went out with a shoulder injury and left Joseph Addai to share the load with Chad Simpson. If Brown misses any length of time, it would increase Addai’s value since Simpson’s no threat to cut into Addai’s touches, but this injury was minor. Expect Brown to be back on the field and scaring Addai’s fantasy owner this week.

Ryan Grant finally went off with 148 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Browns. Let me repeat that: Against the Browns. Green Bay won’t face pushover run defenses all season, but Grant abused this one when given the chance. The Packers remain a pass-first team, but Grant could see his usage rise as the weather turns colder. Don’t give up on him if you’ve holding onto him this long.

Steven Jackson had 134 rushing yards against the Colts. Maybe the Rams should just put him and the offensive line on the field together and run the flying V all day. Might make for some interesting football. The Rams certainly aren’t in their current incarnation.

What do Vernon Davis’ 93 yards and three touchdowns mean? It means he’s a legitimate every week starter. Davis has been a key part of this passing offense all year, and even with the addition of Michael Crabtree, he’ll get lots of looks. If nothing else, his chances at the goal line look very promising.

Speaking of Alex Smith, his three touchdowns and 206 yards in the second half seem to be more than just a lucky break off the bench. He faces the Colts this week, but moving forward, he’s go upside. Sometimes those bench-warming first-round draft picks pay off after all. Eh, Vince Young?

Owen Daniels. Best tight end in football? It’s possible.

Brett Favre loves him some Sidney Rice, proven by the 11 catches Rice took for 136 yards against the Steelers. Favre may not make many more big games out of these receivers, especially after his return-to-form breakdowns against Pittsburgh this week, but it’s never a bad idea to own his favorite target. Rice has definite talent, and skills the ability to hover five feet off the field until Favre can get him the ball.

The Steelers’ defense showed up late to the party against the Vikings, but at least they showed supreme mastery of the flying V in both their interception return and fumble return. If they can contain the beast inside of Adrian Peterson without run-stopper Aaron Smith, they can stop anyone. Feel confident if you have them as your defense at this point in the season. Very confident.

I think the league would be a better place if JaMarcus Russell were benched. I’d be interested to see two teams trade quarterbacks in a given week just to see whether it’s the quarterback or the team causing all the problems. Jason Campbell for Russell anyone? Jake Delhomme for Russell? Marc Bulger for Russell? That’s the kind of trade that could heat things up in a season where every team is great, very good or horrifyingly terrible.

Could the NFL just institute a takebacks trade option so that teams can exchange players for two weeks at a time? It’d be just like pickup football.

Andre Johnson has a lung contusion. I have no idea what that is, but I do know he spit up blood. Regardless, he doesn’t need lungs to play out of his mind against the Bills. The Buffalo secondary has been good, but top receivers can find a way. Jake Delhomme just gets paid to make secondaries like the Bills’ look good.

After losing Leon Washington for the season with a nasty broken fibula, the Jets put in Shonn Greene in garbage time to finish off the Raiders. That 144 yards and two touchdowns will likely draw a crowd on the waiver wire, but Greene probably won’t duplicate a performance like that until he starts to eat into Thomas Jones’ role as the lead back.

I’ve liked Greene all along this year. He’s big and hard-running, just like a little Marion Barber in the making, but the Jets have not sought to limit Jones or replace him with Greene just yet. For now, Greene is nothing more than an 8-10 carry guy to share the load with Jones and take garbage time. Still, he’s definitely worth stashing because of the strength of the Jets’ running game and the chance to eventually replace Jones if anything were to go down.

Carson Palmer looked like the Carson Palmer that dominated the league before his knee injury. Five touchdowns, two to Chad Ochocinco, have me hoping that he keeps that alive through the end of the season.

Palmer’s arm also opened things up for Cedric Benson, who took full advantage of the revenge bowl in Chicago with a career-high 189 yards and a touchdown. If Palmer had jacked all the touchdowns, Benson could have had more. The Bears just looked like they though they were playing last year’s Bengals.

Despite Benson’s beating, Ricky Williams won the spite battle this week with three touchdowns and just 80 rushing yards against his former team, the Saints. It’s not like Ricky has any bad blood. I’m pretty sure with the amount of pot he’s smoked, he’s made peace with everybody, including dead people, but he certainly wanted to win against the Saints on Sunday.

Unfortunately, the Saints took some 5-Hour Energy at halftime, woke up and realized they were behind. Then, Drew Brees went to work. The Saints defense returned two picks for touchdowns, again proving they are a legit fantasy defense as long as Darren Sharper is roaming around out there. I completely called Tracy Porter’s interception return at the end of the game, mostly because I needed it to win a fantasy football game this week, but you know.

Somehow I managed to make it through the entire Monday Night Football excitement of the Eagles and Redskins. In short, DeSean Jackson scored both rushing and receiving the football, and when he wasn’t in the game, neither was the Philadelphia offense. Brian Westbrook got knocked out. Chris Cooley broke his ankle and could be out for the season.

DeSean Jackson was scared he broke something, but after X-raying it, they determined that his only ailment was being awesome and unstoppable. Sometimes that feels like an injury when you play the Redskins I guess.

At what point do we consider farming the Redskins, Rams, Chiefs or Raiders out to the UFL?

On the Wire: Week 7 Pickups, Drops and Names to Know by Now

In what was largely a return to form for the fantasy football community, several names you probably already know popped back on the scene. Some we’ve talked about before, some we’ve neglected to mention since the preseason.

Regardless, if they’ve been dropped or otherwise abandoned to the free agent pool, these guys are worth a look.

Hot Claims

Lance Moore, WR, New Orleans Saints: I’d hope that most owners didn’t give up on Moore as he struggled to get back on the field for the Saints. If anyone did release him, he’s now worth owning again. He was targeted almost as much as Marques Colston.

Steve Breaston, WR, Arizona Cardinals: I highly doubt that a guy as productive as Breaston has been throughout the first part of the season is unclaimed in most leagues, but Anquan Boldin’s injury opens the door for an expanded role. He doesn’t need the opening to be worthy of starting in leagues that start three wide receivers or during bye-week troubles. The extra targets could move him up to WR2 status.

Sidney Rice, WR, Minnesota Vikings: We’ve mentioned him before, but if you’ve been avoiding taking a chance on this magical third-year wide receiver who can hover in space and time while Brett Favre hurls rocket passes of molten leather at him (and how could you with a description like that?), you shouldn’t wait any longer. This kid’s growing into his NFL shoes, and his connection with Favre doesn’t seem to be fading. Rice may end up being the best receiver to own in the Vikings offense by season’s end. Hopefully, Brett Favre’s still throwing well at that point.

Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys: If by some miracle of the fantasy gods, no one in your league decided it was worth it to stash Miles Austin during the Cowboys’ bye week after his 250-yard performance, you’re in luck. He’s now been named a starter, which makes it more likely he could repeat that performance. Austin is still hard to trust as an every week starter, especially given the Cowboys’ tough schedule, but as a guy who has been rooting for Austin for several years now, I’m inclined to believe he has at least one or two more impact performances in him this season.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis Colts: Just a reminder that the unanimous “great pick” of many a football draft could soon be returning to the Colts lineup. Those who held onto him can only hope that he resumes his position as the No. 2 and doesn’t get worked into some kind of incredibly unfortunate rotation due to the production of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie in his absence.

Solid Performers

Laurence Maroney, RB, New England Patriots: I thought he was done. I really did. But here we are in Week 7 without Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor, which leaves Maroney as the next in line. The Patriots have a very easy schedule to end the season. That makes Maroney worth owning even if you don’t plan on starting him right away. Perhaps he’s just fallen into a career saving season.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers: As if we need another tight end to add to the depth at the position, Green Bay has a budding star in Finely who could see his role expand. The Packers, as usual, look like one of the most productive passing offenses this season, and Finley should be a big part of that, especially if the Packers fail to involve Greg Jennings more than they have during the first six weeks of the season.

Justin Fargas, RB, Oakland Raiders: As inadvisable as it is to rely on an Oakland Raider in fantasy, Fargas earned some tough yards against the Eagles’ defense without Robert Gallery on the offensive line. Gallery’s upcoming return should allow the Raiders to get more action in the running game, and Fargas might hold onto the starting role if he continues to be the most productive back until Darren McFadden comes back from his injury. Michael Bush was largely ignored in this game as they let Fargas carry the load, but we’ll have to see if that continues.

Chaz Schilens, WR, Oakland Raiders: Yes, the Raiders are questionable in the passing game, but that doesn’t mean the return of their former No. 1 receiver won’t turn things around. Just look at JaMarcus Russell, full of that spin move spunk this week. If you are desperate for a receiver to finish out the season, Schilens might be worth sitting on for a few weeks. Just don’t let JaMarcus sit on him because that could kill him.

Zach Miller, TE, Oakland Raiders: Due to the depth at tight end this season, I’d only take a chance on Zach Miller as a backup tight end right now. He hasn’t been the most reliable fantasy player because of the Raiders offensive woes, but his big reception on Sunday for a touchdown could be the start of something special. He’s worth keeping an eye on in smaller leagues.

Long-term Investments

Chester Taylor, RB, Minnesota Vikings: There was a bit of an injury scare on Sunday when Adrian Peterson came up a little gimpy late in the game. A.P. returned to finish the game, but if Peterson misses time in practice this week, Taylor is the back you want to own. If nothing else, you can hold him over the A.P. owner as a bargaining chip for a trade if this scare causes them to regret not stashing Taylor on their own roster.

Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers: I’ve heard conflicting reports that Crabtree would get a few snaps in the slot and that he would instantly become a starter this week against Houston. Whatever happens to be true, Crabtree is an interesting stash. Despite Josh Morgan’s promising stats thus far, Crabtree might be able to make more of his touches in the 49ers offense if he’s all he’s cracked up to be at the NFL level. Keep your eye on this situation.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills: Trent Edwards got his annual head injury yesterday. That leaves Fitzpatrick in line to start if Edwards has to miss time or trails off after the concussion the same way he did last season. Keep your eye on this situation. Just like Edwards, Fitzpatrick would have a chance to be a part of an explosive offense, but it remains to be seen whether any of the Bills quarterbacks can put it to good use.

Dropsies

Fanhouse throws out a few reminders about players who can be cut. I disagree on Morgan, at least until we know how this Crabtree starting situation shakes out, but the rest can be removed from your roster if a more promising candidate is available.

Other players who could be let go: Kerry Collins, Titans; Jason Campbell, Redskins; Trent Edwards, Bills; Marc Bulger, Rams.

Want More?

Get more waiver wire picks at Fantasy Football Librarian, Fanhouse, FF Toolbox, Lester’s Legends, KFFL, The Hazean and The Fantasy Football Geek Blog.

On the Wire: Week 5 Pickups, Drops and Bye Week Filler

I wanted to make a switch this past weekend at defense to sub in the New Orleans Saints D/ST for the Green Bay Packers D/ST.

Considering they had the same bye week and with some doubt in the Saints’ newly discovered fantasy worthiness, I was slow to make that change. I thought the Packers D/ST might somehow know how to beat Brett Favre.

On Sunday, ESPN’s server login problems kept me from reconsidering. Today, looking at a 10-point loss and a big three points from Green Bay’s defense, I very much regret that decision.

But it’s a lesson. Just goes to show you that you should always be aggressive. This week, with bye weeks hitting your team now or in the near future, it’s important to clear that dead weight from your roster.

That loss is going to sting for a good while. But now, let’s get to making things better for all involved. This week’s waiver wire pickups are in priority order, but your preference may vary depending on your own team needs. If you have any trouble choosing between these pickups or debating whom to drop from your current roster, leave a question in the comments to open it up to discussion.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
As long as Willie Parker stays down and out and as long as the Steelers face defensive lines like the Chargers’ weak one, Mendenhall is showing a lot of promise. Maybe the Steelers have a running game after all? In Sunday night’s game, Mendenhall rushed at will for 165 yards with 26 receiving yards and two touchdowns against San Diego. His next two games are against Detroit and Cleveland. Go get him while you can.

Jerome Harrison, RB, Cleveland Browns
Now that the Browns have some kind of offense, it’s worth keeping tabs on their primary running back. James Davis is now on IR, which leaves Harrison as the best warm body behind the injured Jamal Lewis. Harrison rushed for 121 yards and caught 31 yards in the Browns loss to the Bengals. In PPR leagues, that makes for some decent bench depth. In non-PPR leagues, there’s a chance the Browns could show signs of life enough to make Harrison worthy of a play during bye weeks.

New Orleans Saints D/ST
I’ve now learned from my mistake and fully endorse this defense. At last check, they were second in the NFL in blitzing behind only the New York Jets. Add that to the play of Darren Sharper and the potential of Reggie Bush on special teams, and this unit looks to be reliable throughout 2009. If someone in your league drops them while they are on bye, make sure you are the one who picks them up by Week 6. Besides the Giants (Week 6) and Patriots (Week 12), the Saints have a schedule full of very winnable games the rest of this season.

San Francisco 49ers D/ST
The 49ers D/ST is also very legit this season and not on bye this week. Bonus!

David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
More than likely, he’s owned in your league, but in case you haven’t noticed, he’s looking like more than just a reliable bye week fill. The Jaguars can throw the ball–one year after I had to draft Garrard as part of a quarterback by committee in 2008.

Sidney Rice, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Five catches for 70 yards and as touchdown. Sounds like he’s ready for that breakout year we’ve been expecting just as long as Brett Favre will accommodate. That late throw by Favre down the sidelines seems to suggest he won’t remain a game manager much longer.

Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Cleveland Browns
Just like his running back counterpart, Massaquoi had a pulse in the Browns game this week. His eight catches for 148 yards to Braylon Edwards zero catches may suggest that Edwards has fallen out of favor. Add to that accusations that Edwards punched a friend of LeBron James, an offense punishable by death in Cleveland, and I’m seeing stars align for Massaquoi to be the big-play threat of the Browns’ passing game. Sure, that’s not a big threat, but it’s something.

Nate Washington, WR, Tennessee Titans
If the Titans keep digging a hole early in games, Washington should see even more targets. He’s a more elusive wide receiver than Justin Gage with the ball in his hands, and he could be a decent bye week fill against the Colts and Patriots these next two weeks.

Josh Morgan, WR, San Francisco 49ers
He came out against the Rams and should have had two scores. He’s the best receiver the 49ers have on their current roster, and the 49ers may look to throw more regularly as long as Gore remains out. All good reasons to have Morgan on your team if someone else gave up on him.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers
Finley’s 128 yards and one touchdown performance was the breakout game we were all waiting for this season, and Donald Lee’s critical drop may have the Packers turning to Finley for an even larger role after their bye week. He’s certainly one of, if not the most promising tight end to own as a TE2 at this point in the season. Pick him up if you have the roster space or have a need at tight end. Otherwise, wait to see how he does after the bye.

Josh Johnson, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I told you that I liked this kid. Coach Raheem Morris does, too. But don’t throw him in there against the Philadelphia Eagles, coming off of a bye, this week. Let him incubate.

Derek Anderson, QB, Cleveland Browns
The Browns are alive in the hands of Anderson. As long as you can live with his mistakes, he has a nice matchup against the Bills this week.

Seneca Wallace, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Wallace could make for reliable bye-week filler against the Jaguars this week, but he’s a dangerous choice since Hasselbeck could return this week. Watch the practice reports before you go get him.

And now the ones you should just keep an eye on…

Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
As the passing game comes alive, so does Lewis, but don’t jump on him unless you are desperate for him after his 76-yard, one touchdown performance this week.

Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets
He didn’t get a significant number of carries on Sunday, but he saw the field. This showing wasn’t enough to say he’s taking a role in the offense, but we could see him takeover if Thomas Jones continues to decline in comparison to Leon Washington. By season’s end, it could be Greene and Washington splitting time, and that would certainly make him worth owning. He’s a stash in deeper leagues.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Denver Broncos
Hillis could be in line for more carries if Correll Buckhalter misses this week’s game with a sprained ankle. Against the Patriots, Hillis might be productive, but he’d likely split time with Knowshon Moreno and LaMont Jordan. If you’re looking to long shot, he’s not a terrible one this week.

Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins didn’t put the game in his hands on Sunday, but he looked promising against the Bills. His schedule gets brutal for the next three to four weeks, but look for him to show what he can offer starting in Week 9. His playoff schedule could make him a sneaky play.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
He’s not a must-have just yet, but Nicks showed why he was drafted this week with that quick stop-and-go at the goal line for his first NFL touchdown. Mario Manningham took a back seat in this one, and that might be the trend going forward. But don’t get any ideas. Steve Smith is still the No. 1 receiver in New York, and he’s a solid fantasy option for the rest of the season.

Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans
He isn’t getting enough playing time early in games to justify owning him in most leagues, but Britt could be in line for more catches as the third receiver in the Titans offense when they face the Colts this week. Britt had 105 receiving yards this week against the Jaguars.

Guys you should already own by now: Vernon Davis, 49ers; Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars; Tashard Choice, Cowboys; Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers.

Guys you can drop if you so choose: Chris Henry, Bengals; Darren McFadden, Raiders; Michael Bush, Raiders; Zach Miller, Raiders (especially now that he’s concussed); anyone else, Raiders; James Davis, Browns (He’s on IR, silly, and should only be kept in dynasty leagues at this point.); Earnest Graham, Buccaneers; Mike Bell, Saints, Jason Campbell, Redskins.

As an addendum to this week’s On the Wire, see which players I picked as the best “buy low” and “sell high” candidates in last week’s Fourth & 1 debate roundtable, hosted by Top Fantasy Football.

For more waiver wire grabs, check out Fantasy Football Librarian’s two collections, Fanhouse, The Fantasy Football Geek Blog and FF Toolbox’s deep league and standard league pickups.

As always, the comments are yours. Ask us a question. We love to answer them.

On the Wire: Week 3 Pickups and Sleepers

If your team is 0-2, you could use the help, but don’t do anything crazy. I know of a league where a man dropped Matt Schaub after his pitiful Week 1 performance. I will name no names, but I’m pretty sure he regrets that now. He should.

Your top picks deserve some time to find their footing, but dead weight like that second tight end, second defense or sleeper that is still napping are all good to drop this week. If you’re not sure who you should drop, leave your questions in the comments.

Several key players suffered some injuries this week. Even the great Favre broke a nail.

Things are looking down for Brandon Marshall, but Pierre Thomas owners have some hope that they could see Thomas back on the field in a big way soon with Mike Bell expected to miss some time.

Maybe Jason Campbell’s sprained foot explains his unimpressive play lately? Well, nope, that’s probably just him.

Here are a few guys that could help you shape up for Week 3:

Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore Ravens: As much as it pains me to say it, it looks like McGahee could outperform Ray Rice this year. He’s getting plenty of touches near the goal line while Rice sits on the sidelines. Get him while he’s hot. I’ll hold out for a Ray Rice resurgence.

Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia Eagles: Kevin Kolb likes to check it down to his tight end, but Celek was getting targets in Week 1 with McNabb as well. Look for him to have a solid season, and in PPR, he could get you some great numbers even when he doesn’t find the end zone.

Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: From the looks of it, Jacksonville will be throwing the ball quite a bit to get back in games this year. The name change doesn’t disguise that Walker was one of David Garrard’s favorite targets last season — when healthy, that is. I like Sims-Walker even more now that Troy Williamson is out, and he got the touchdown in Week 2.

Mario Manningham, WR, New York Giants: From bust to must-have? Until Hakeem Nicks and Domenik Hixon return, Manningham should start alongside Steve Smith. I’d rather have Smith, but Manningham looks like the big-play threat right now. He had 134 yards and a touchdown this week against my Cowboys.

Steve Smith, WR, New York Giants: When the Giants are forced to throw, Smith is the guy you want to own.

Johnny Knox, WR, Chicago Bears: Cutler looked to the speedy receiver in some key situations against the Steelers, and he got the touchdown grab. Cutler even chose to go to Knox when both Hester and Knox were open. With so many targets his way, Knox could be a factor moving forward. Consider him bench depth for now if you want to go out and get him.

Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets: This kid may make a solid backup fantasy quarterback after all.

Laurent Robinson, WR, St. Louis Rams: As I mentioned last week, Robinson is getting plenty of looks in St. Louis, even outperforming Donnie Avery. Don’t overlook him just because the Rams are so terrible. Okay, okay, you can overlook him.

Bobby Wade, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Wade stepped in to his new team in Week 2 and tied for most touches. Much like Robinson, the Chiefs struggles could see him catching a lot of passes, but he’s not much of a touchdown threat.

Correll Buckhalter, RB, Denver Broncos: My pick to be the most productive running back in Denver this year, and he got a touchdown this week. But considering how many backs there are in that pack for the Broncos, you might just want to stay away from this one.

Glen Coffee, RB, San Francisco 49ers: Owners who stashed him in your league may have given up after he seemed to be just a backup to Gore, but now that Gore has tweaked an ankle, he could some more work moving forward. Any back with Gore’s injury history and as many carries as he’ll get this year should miss at least one game, and I like coffee — the running back and the delicious caffeinated beverage.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles: Westbrook sprained his ankle in Week 2, and McCoy is a copycat replacement if Westbrook misses time. Savvy Westbrook owners already own him, but if not, grab him now and see what happens. Week 3 against the Chiefs looks promising.

Kevin Kolb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: He’s got a sweet matchup against the Chiefs this week if McNabb sits again.

Byron Leftwich, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Not to be relied on all season, Leftwich has started hot this year in games where he is forced to overcome the failings of the Tampa Bay defense. He won’t be starting all year with Josh Freeman waiting in the wings, but he’s worth a look if you’re starter is out or your backup is le suck.

Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots: When Wes Welker is out, his stats will go to Edelman. It’s a perfect system in New England. With Welker expected to return, I wouldn’t recommend picking him up, but keep Edelman in mind next time Welker is inactive.

Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle Seahawks: We know that Julius Jones fades down the stretch, and Forsett contributed on Sunday against the 49ers surprising defense. Could he be the one to take over when Jones fails? Forsett’s got some long-term value if you can hold onto him for a bit.

New York Jets D/ST: They arrived this week in keeping the Patriots out of the end zone. No offensive touchdowns allowed in two games? I’ll take that.

San Francisco 49ers D/ST: One to watch. I’m not convinced they’re completely legit, but we’ll see how they do this week against Adrian Peterson.

For more waiver wire analysis…

As always, the comments are yours. If you need some help in reshaping your roster, leave your questions in the comments.

A Fool and His Money – Week 1

Week 1 is my favorite week to make bets. You get to trust your gut more than any other week of the season, and you feel extremely smug when your predictions come true.

But the first games are also full of questions. Which teams developed chemistry over the offseason? Who will exceed expectations, and who will disappoint? There is money to be made if you can answer these questions correctly.

STEELERS (-6) over Titans
Will the Titans’ defense be the same without Albert Haynesworth? I have no qualms with the Titans’ defense, but I do have problems with trusting Kerry Collins. I predict Vince Young will get his chance for redemption at some point in the season.

Cowboys (-6) over BUCS
Are the Cowboys serious NFC contenders this year? They need to stomp teams like Tampa Bay if they are.

Lions (+13) over SAINTS
Did Kevin Smith really guarantee the playoffs this year? Even Lions’ players and fans can be optimistic this time of year.

FALCONS (-4) over Dolphins
Which one of these teams will take a step back this year? My vote is for the one that loses this game.

TEXANS (-4.5) over Jets
Have you met Mario Williams yet? Rookie QB Mark Sanchez is about to meet him for first time. This is the year the Texans need to finish over .500. People have been talking about this team for a couple of seasons — now show us something!

BENGALS (-4) over Broncos
Does anybody know what to expect from either of these teams? I think the Bengals have more potential so I’m going with them.

PANTHERS (+1.5) over Eagles
Why isn’t anyone talking about the Panthers this year? They had the best fantasy player in the game last year and the best record in the NFC.

Jags (+7) over COLTS
Has any team been more consistent this past decade? No Bob Sanders or Marvin Harrison this season. I like the Colts to win, but seven points is just too much for me.

Vikings (-4) over BROWNS
Is Brady Quinn still a loser? The answer is always yes. This line seems suspiciously low to me, but I’m going to take the bait and pick the Vikings.

Chiefs (+13) over RAVENS
Who can turn down 13 points? Not me — at least not during the first week when we still have a lot to learn about teams.

Redskins (+6.5) over GIANTS
Is this Jason Campbell’s last chance? If he doesn’t step up this year, I think it’s time for the Redskins to start looking in a different direction.

SEAHAWKS (-8.5) over Rams
Was last year a fluke? Everyone knows these teams were decimated by injuries last year, but we need to see who will bounce back quicker. I personally expect an NFC West division title for the Seahawks.

49ers (+6.5) over CARDINALS
Who doesn’t love Mike Singletary? From his future Coors Light commercial quotes to his obsession with hills, I want to believe the 49ers can take a step forward this year.

PACKERS (-3.5) over Bears
Do you believe the hype? A lot of people are very high on both these teams in the NFC. I don’t forget which players and teams wronged me last year, and Jay Cutler is at the top of that list. I bet he hangs out with Brady Quinn in the offseason.

PATRIOTS (-10.5) over Bills
Is Brady back? Normally, I don’t like giving double-digit points in the first week, but I believe the Patriots will try and turn this into a statement game by running up the score.

Chargers (-9) over RAIDERS
Could anything the Raiders do surprise you at this point? Stupid draft picks, violent head coaches, dumb trades. I wish I could bet the over on L.T. getting more than 30 fantasy points this week.

Season Record
Nick: 0-0-0

Fantasy Draft Day Pick or Pass: Top 24 Running Backs by ADP

Many a fantasy football site will give you rankings. Most of the time, that’s enough for you to make your decisions when drafting a fantasy team, but I like to add a little depth to my rankings by incorporating the “players to avoid” tag.

You see, not every player is desirable, even if they are the No. 5-ranked running back on the board. Some bad situations may not compel experts to rank a player lower, and at times, there’s no logical reason behind disliking a player other than that icky feeling you get when he’s the next player in your rankings. Regardless, we still have every right to avoid a guy in the draft.

If I had only listened to that inner “pick or pass” feeling when it came time for me to make my first round selection in 2007, I might have never taken Larry Johnson with a mid-first-round pick … and that would have made all the difference.

For this first addition of “pick or pass,” I gathered the top 24 running backs ranked by average draft position (ADP) over at Fantasy Football Calculator to break down. The rankings were current as of July 15, 2009. If you have any more reservations about players that I don’t touch on here or just find yourself wanting to share your agreement, please tell me about your concerns and tips in the comments.

Pick or Pass: Top 24 Running Backs as Drafted in Mock Drafts

1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings – ADP: 1.01 – PICK
So what if he is the unanimous No. 1 running back? Some guys still don’t love him first overall. No one says you have to take him — even if you league boos (and they will). Despite my personal distrust of Peterson, I would “pick” Peterson at the No. 1 because of his explosive potential and the huge tradebait he becomes if you want to do a little preseason maneuvering before the first game of the season. You can’t go wrong with the player everyone expects to be the best, right?

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP: 1.03 – PICK
Everybody loves the bowling-ball receiving back from the Jacksonville Jaguars. While I dislike him here at the No. 2 spot, he’s still a “pick” for me somewhere in the top five. Unless the offensive line pulls another Humpty Dumpty routine, Jones-Drew should have all the chances in the world to put up RB1-worthy stats. Then again, if you’re not a Jacksonville fan … you may hold off on Jones-Drew at the No. 2 because we all know he’ll still share the rock with Greg Jones this season, even if it’s not as much as he shared it with Fred Taylor.

3. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons – ADP: 1.03 – PICK
He’s just barely a “pick” because he’s such a safe choice. Yes, his schedule is tougher. Yes, he ran many, many times last season. Yes, his quarterback’s other weapons are improved this season, but look again at how many chances Michael Turner had near the goal line last year. Turner can only benefit from more movement up and down the field, so don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on him anywhere in the top five.

4. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears –   ADP: 1.04 – PICK
The little rookie back that could last season, Forte was the definition of consistent. If he didn’t get a touchdown, he got 100+ yards — and he always got 100+ yards. Jay Cutler under center should shake things up, but much like Turner, making the weapons more dangerous only makes me like Forte more. He’s a “pick” anywhere in the top five as well.

5. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – ADP: 1.06 – PASS
Ah, the first “pass” of the running back class rears its ugly head at No. 5. Steven Jackson is one of the most talented backs in the league, and the Rams plan to make him a workhorse this season. Still, I’m just not feeling his health and the team play in St. Louis. The Rams have very little receiver talent, a banged-up veteran at quarterback in Bulger and not much to make opposing defenses look at anyone but … you guessed it … Jackson. He may get plenty of carries and quite a few yards, but I’ll “pass.”

6. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers – ADP: 1.08 – PASS
Sermons have been written on why LaDainian Tomlinson faded last season and how much you need to believe in him this year, but they’re all blasphemy, my friend. If it looks like the end of his career and it talks like the end of his career, it’s probably a duck … and perhaps I missed something in the argument I was trying to make there. Here’s the point: he’s aging, Darren Sproles is franchise-tagged and looking to impress his way out of San Diego and the Chargers window for a Super Bowl victory is closing faster than Tom Brady can buy new flower boxes. If L.T. stays healthy for the entire season, he’s likely to put up numbers close to his old averages, but this high in the draft, I’d still “pass.”

7. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – ADP: 1.08 – PICK
The reason you’d pass on a guy like Steven Jackson or L.T. is right here at No. 7. Chris Johnson has the speed to burn you, and the team to grind you into the ground. I’m not scared of LenDale White unless I’m covered in donut glaze. Johnson is just the kind of young running back in a run-oriented offense that I would want to lead me into battle each week — fantasy battle, that is. I’d pick him before Jackson, L.T. or DeAngelo Williams.

8. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers – ADP: 1.11 – PASS
“Pass, pass, pass.” I went into more detail about how painful DeAngelo’s second season as a starter could be when I compared him to Michael Turner in Truth or Fiction. Here’s the short version: a better Jonathan Stewart means fewer carries to go around, a tougher schedule means it’ll be more difficult to score touchdowns and a weaker offensive line means less holes to run through. I’ll “pass” on Williams this season because he’s just not worth the risk.

9. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans – ADP: 1.11 – PICK
Slaton had a solid amount of carries close to the red zone just as Michael Turner did last season, but Slaton was basically the only running back left standing in Houston for most of the season. With bigger backs like Chris Brown and the new guy, Jeremiah Johnson, around, he may lose those touches, but he won’t lose that speed that kept him on the field last season. Slaton was one of the best surprises of 2008, and I’d “pick” him again in 2009.

10. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – ADP: 2.01 – PICK
It’s all a bit of a toss up when it comes to the 49ers. All those words from the coaches about a running-based offense is great, but I want to make sure they’re actually going to put points on the board this season. Gore should tote the rock without too much sharing, and unlike the Rams and Steven Jackson, the 49ers should have enough other weapons to make Gore productive. I’d “pick” him.

11. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 2.04 – PASS
Westy’s been an injury concern for several seasons, but this year, I might actually count that against him. His offseason surgeries and the addition of LeSean McCoy are just enough to make me want to hold off on him this year. I’d take him as a mid-range RB2, but I’ll “pass” here with bigger fish still left in the sea.

12. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants – ADP: 2.05 – PICK
If the word “pick” could sound more intimidating and bulky, I would use it here. Jacobs is a quality pick for the second round. Without Derrick Ward, he should have more yardage than he did last season. Regardless, we know he scores touchdowns. Without Plaxico Burress, one can only hope that the Giants forget how to do anything but run this season.

13. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins – ADP: 2.07 – PICK
Portis took his shots last season and still came out on the other side. I’m not exactly sure how he managed to play through all his injuries, but the man is consistent — one of the most consistent at his position over the years. I like him a tad less this season just because of his workload, even though I don’t think that it will slow his productivity. What does concern me is the team around him coming into this season. Jason Campbell is in his “make or break” year in Washington after all the trade talks this offseason, and there’s talk of Colt Brennan getting a shot before season’s end if Campbell can’t prove his worth. That spells a hard year for Portis, and it’s just enough to tempt me to take Barber instead. Portis still deserves a “pick.”

14. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys – ADP: 2.11 – PICK
The touchdown machine in Dallas runs only for this man. Barber could be in line for more this season if the Cowboys move towards a more run-focused attack. Even if they don’t, the running game has always made Barber productive. Normally a first round back in the parts where I draft (Texas), I see no reason not to make him a “pick.”

15. Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins – ADP: 3.04 – PASS
For being the quarterback in the Wildcat and the “starting” running back for Miami, I expected more from Ronnie Brown last season. By the end of 2008, he was practically worthless. Ricky Williams is still around to demand some carries, and now there is talk of letting Patrick Cobbs get more touches. I just don’t feel Brown here in the second/third round. I like my starting two running backs to be dependable. Sorry, Brown, I’ll “pass.”

16. Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints – ADP: 3.06 – PICK
I’m surprised to see Thomas trending this high in ADP since most rankings project him as a fourth-round acquisition. He’s a quality running back and deserving of the ranking … but really? No. 16 at running back? With the scoreboard the Saints put together and the struggles of Reggie Bush, I don’t expect Thomas to disappoint. He’ll be worth this “pick.”

17. Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – ADP: 3.09 – PICK
Oh, how low the mighty have fallen. Grant was thought of as a top-10 with upside that could make him a top-five last season. Then injury struck. Grant’s still high on my list, and I’ll give him credit for finishing strong in 2008. I’ll “pick” him here and consider him better than the likes of Ronnie Brown.

18. Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – ADP: 3.11 – PASS
This is it! This is Kevin’s year to carry the rock. Can’t you hear the screams right this moment? If Matthew Stafford gets the nod, the Lions are definitely going to be running the ball this season, but I haven’t become a Smith believer just yet. That doesn’t mean he won’t blow up this year, but it does mean I’m willing to take my chances elsewhere. The move to a new style of running offense, away from what Smith is used to, doesn’t make me feel good about his chances this season. “Pass.”

19. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills – ADP: 4.05 – PICK
Suspension or not, Lynch is one of the grinding backs in this league. No. 19 is still a little rich for my tastes with those games missed at the beginning of the season, and Fred Jackson has a great deal more upward mobility as the guy who will start those games and contribute all season. But Lynch is the guy in Buffalo, and with an improved offensive attack — even if their O-line has taken a step back — he’s worthy of a “pick.”

20. Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints – ADP: 4.06 – PASS
He’s a better receiver than a running back, so unless you have a sucker who would trade you a real gem in a package for this circus show, I’d “pass” outside of PPR leagues. I am not convinced he can stay healthy enough to fill the role of a running back, and as a gimmick player, his value is limited. But if he falls into a bargain round, I can’t say I would still refuse him.

21. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos – ADP: 4.10 – PASS
I’m not a believer in the new Denver coach, and I’m not a fan of rookie running backs when they are accompanied by a real pack — and I do mean “pack” — of veterans. Even if Moreno wins the starting job, how much of it will he win? I’d rather take the “wait and see” approach with KnowMo. (Does anyone call him “KnowMo” now? Because I really want to now … I won’t pick him “KnowMo.”)

22. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – ADP: 4.12 – PICK
He didn’t get his shot last season with all the injury trouble and that dastardly Justin Fargas, but with a season under his belt, I’d “pick” him to earn his place among the high-performing rookies from last season. No one likes to fall behind, and McFadden has plenty of ground to make up.

23. Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: 5.02 – PICK
All alone in Tampa Bay with no “Earth” or “Fire” for his “Wind,” Ward should have plenty of opportunities to show why the Giants used him as much as they did last season. Ward is a “pick,” even if he ends up getting a “change of pace” tag and yields red zone chances to Earnest Graham. He’ll earn his time just like he did with Brandon Jacobs.

24. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – ADP: 5.03 – PICK
From top-five to No. 24? Even with rookie Donald Brown breathing down his neck, I have no fear in taking Addai in the third round and beyond. The Colts’ offensive line was pretty terrible last season without Jeff Saturday. A healthy Peyton and a healthy Saturday make for a good Sunday for Addai. He’s a “pick” in my book.

Agree with my picks and passes or disagree? The comments are yours.

A Fool and His Money in Week 14

Note from Jacob: Somehow, after a rager of a game of Monopoly — yes, we are five years old — and a weekend of fantasy football talk, we got Chadam to disagree with Nick on some of this week’s picks.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers

Fools Take: CHARGERS (-9) over Raiders

Nick says: I expect Philip Rivers to have his best game of the season because he is on my fantasy football team and because I will not be needing his services with a bye in the first week of the playoffs in Week 14. (Note from Nick: Jacob and Chadam do not have a first round bye, but they did make the playoffs.)

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes:
LIONS (+10) over Vikings
Nick Takes: Vikings (-10) over LIONS

In taking the Lions, Chadam says: This matchup is the best chance for the Lions to win a game this season.

In taking the Vikings, Nick says: The Lions have Daunte Culpepper.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Fools Take: Bengals (+13.5) over COLTS

Nick says: The Colts have not beaten an opponent by more than six points all year. I was so shocked by that stat that I had to take the Bengals and points. Somehow, I’m guessing the Colts will break that trend sometime during the next two weeks while they are playing the Bengals and Lions. Just call it a gut feeling.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Fools Take: Falcons (+3) over SAINTS

Nick says: I know that the NFC South teams are the definition of home field advantage, but I still can’t get over the lack of respect the Falcons are getting. They are 8-4! I love the way they are pounding the ball with Turner and then going over the top to Roddy White. Matt Ryan has my vote for rookie of the year.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Fools Take: GIANTS (-7) over Eagles $ #

Chadam says: If it was -17, I would still take the Giants.

Nick says: I’m guessing a lot of people will pick the Eagles after they whooped up on the Cardinals and the whole Plaxico Burress situation in the Big Apple, but the Giants haven’t been relying on Burress all year. The G-Men will be even more focused now that he’s gone.

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes:
Texans (+6) over PACKERS
Nick Takes: PACKERS (-6) over Texans

In taking the Texans, Chadam says: I always take the Texans.

In taking the Packers, Nick says: I was listening to the Bill Simmons’ BS Report and whatever expert he had on the show was convinced that the Packers are much better than their record indicates based on his statistics. This game is my test to see if this guy knows his stuff or if he is full of shit. Beating the Texans shouldn’t be too tough a test for any playoff worthy team.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

Fools Take: TITANS (-14) over Browns

Nick says: I think it’s hilarious that the Browns are giving more points than the Lions against a common opponent. This number seemed high to me, but then I remembered that the Browns suck and are playing a third string backup at QB. Good luck against the Titans, Ken Dorsey!

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: BEARS (-6.5) over Jaguars
Nick Takes: Jaguars (+6.5) over BEARS

In taking the Bears, Chadam says: I think the Jags have given up on this season, and the Bears are still fighting for a playoff spot.

In taking the Jaguars, Nick says: I just feel deflated in regards to the Bears. They looked promising for a while there, but now, they are on the apathetic/”don’t care” list. Eh.

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers

Fools Take: Jets (-4) over 49ERS $ #

Nick says: I have no clue what to think about the Jets. They got embarrassed at home last week by the Broncos — The Broncos! — the same team that was embarrassed by the Raiders a week before. I think the Jets will rebound nicely this week, but I have no faith in their chances to go deep in the playoffs after last week. None.

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

Fools Take: Patriots (-4.5) over SEAHAWKS #

Nick says: Is Matt Cassel better than Tom Brady? Add that to the list of most ridiculous comparisons ever right up there with Deron Williams versus Chris Paul, Britney’s voice versus Christina’s voice and LeBron versus anybody. The Patriots should win this game by a touchdown or two.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Fools Take: Chiefs (+9) over BRONCOS

Nick says: I honestly have no clue what to expect from the Broncos. They might be the most up/down team I’ve ever seen. The Chiefs are coming off only their second win of the season, so I’m going to give them the edge.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (in Cana-day)

Fools Take: Dolphins (+1) over Bills

Nick says: The Bills couldn’t put up more than three points at home against the 49ers, and now, I’m supposed to expect them to beat the Dolphins in a fake home game in Toronto? I don’t think so. I’m making this a lock just because of the absurdity of the suggestion.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers

Fools Take: STEELERS (-3) over Cowboys

Nick says: I respect the Steelers. Their fans are legit and know how to get up for a big game — too bad this isn’t the night game. I’m still not convinced on the Cowboys, but this game should be a legitimate test for them. Beat the Steelers at home, and you are legit in my opinion. Hopefully, no one breaks an ankle in the process — besides Willie Parker, who breaks something every game.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes:
CARDINALS (-14) over Rams
Nick Takes: Rams (+14) over CARDINALS

In taking the Cardinals, Chadam says: The Rams are going to be tanking for a good draft pick to get a new quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, kicker, offensive line and defensive line. They are set at punter.

In taking the Rams, Nick says: I just think 14 points is too much for a Cardinals team that is good but not great. I’m guessing Steven Jackson breaks loose in a lost cause just enough to cover the spread.

Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens

Fools Take: RAVENS (-5) over Redskins $ #

Nick says: The Zorn Supremacy is gone. They are now searching for The Zorn Identity. What happened to letting Clinton Portis be the work horse and Jason Campbell doing just enough to keep defenses honest? There is going to be a good team left out of the AFC playoffs. It’s too bad the Broncos will take a spot away from a deserving candidate. Hopefully, it won’t be the Ravens.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Bucs (-3) over PANTHERS
Nick Takes: PANTHERS (+3) over Bucs

In taking the Bucs, Chadam says: I’ve been a fan of the Bucs all year, so I’m not going to jump off the bandwagon now. Besides, the Panthers are a bit too inconsistent for my tastes. I really don’t like that I’m giving points in this game though.

In taking the Panthers, Nick says: I am going to stick with the NFC South home field advantage in this game, and there is no 3.5-point spread, which has been killing me all season. Hopefully, I can get back on track this week. My picks have hit a late season SNAFU in these past few weeks, but I’m looking to reverse that trend with a little luck.

Last Week:

Nick: 7-9

Current Standings after Week 13:

Nick: 97-88-3
Nick’s Lock: 8-5