According to ESPN, the Dallas Cowboys just cut Terrell Owens. Not only does this defy some good logic, it also might be the best move for the Cowboys after all.
Jerry Jones obviously spent a lot of time over the offseason speaking to his coaching staff and players about what went wrong in the bust of a season that was 2008. Outside Tony Romo’s injury, the entire team struggled to find an identity on offense, and that confusion allowed the one player that did have one, T.O., to take control.
With that much power, Matt Mosley notes that T.O. had to go, even with the loss of value.
But in the end, the people he trusts at Valley Ranch may have finally convinced him that T.O. was too divisive a force in the locker room. I talked to a source at Valley Ranch late Wednesday evening who said that T.O.’s future was discussed in meetings Wednesday, but that Jones hadn’t made a final decision when most people left the building.
This is a clear admission on Jones’ part that the team couldn’t get to the next level (winning a playoff game) with T.O. If you just go on the receiver’s production (38 TDs in three seasons), it’s hard to believe the Cowboys would move on without him. But T.O. had become the most powerful voice in the locker room and head coach Wade Phillips and offensive coordinator Jason Garrett couldn’t compete with him.
By putting Owens on the street, the Cowboys are dropping the passing game — some pun intended — in the hands of Williams and attempting to justify all those picks they spent to get him.
While he hasn’t quite fallen off yet, T.O. would have begun to decline over the next few seasons, and he probably won’t take it very well as he degrades into a No. 2 receiver. Jones is abandoning the money and reputation he sunk into Owens in order to have Williams fill the void early and save the team more grief.
Let’s hope they saw something in Williams this offseason that looked better than he did last season.
Williams’ fantasy value jumps now that he moves to the No. 1 role, but can we trust a guy who had just 19 catches in a Cowboys uniform in 2008? He doesn’t assume T.O.’s spot in my fantasy wide receiver rankings, but floating the gap between the second and third tier, he’s got some big upside when he clicks with Romo.
Opposite Williams, Miles Austin or Patrick Crayton will have to step up in a big way — and perhaps if Austin wins the job, he’ll finally become that explosive receiver we saw flashes of last season.
It’s likely that this move signifies the Cowboys shift towards the run game. Jason Garrett didn’t know what to do with what he had last season, but in 2009, he knows he can feed the ball to Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice.
Maybe this move will turn the Cowboys around and get them a playoff win, but we all know Jon Kitna’s going to be the real reason they make it to the postseason … right?
The real tragedy here is for T.O. who just wanted to end his career as a Cowboy.
Owens told the Dallas Morning News in May 2008 he “definitely” wanted to finish his career with the Cowboys.
This week, I wanted to educate you on two of my favorite types of bets, the parlay and the progressive parlay. With these two wagers, you can arm yourself with the tools necessary to lose money like Chadam and I do. Excited?
A parlay is when you combine several point-spread wagers into one bet. If you pick all the games correctly, you receive a big payout, but if any one of the teams loses, you lose your entire bet.
There is a very high risk in this bet, but it also has a high reward. For example, if you think the Titans, Colts and Jets are all going to cover the spread, you could make three $10 individual bets on each team. If they all win, you win $28.56 in profits ($9.52 on each).
If you bet $30 on a parlay (+644) for those three teams, and they won, you would win $64.42 profit. At the same time, if one team lost you would lose all $30 in the parlay, but you would still make $9 profit from the three individual bets.
You can do a parlay for any amount of game lines you want, but be cautious. Pick too many, and it’s a sucker bet.
A progressive parlay is similar to a parlay but with different odds for how many games you correctly choose. For example, a four-team progressive parlay may pay (+400) if you correctly choose all four games and pay (+100) if you choose three of the four correctly. You have a little room for error in your picks.
The reward for choosing all the games correctly is lower than a parlay payout, but you still have a chance of winning money even if you make one wrong pick.
Progressive parlays change depending on how many games there are. The more teams in the progressive parlay, the more incorrect picks you can make and still win money — Chadam loves these bets.
Chadam had so many lines he loved this week, he couldn’t choose just one to endorse as his favorite. He’s pimping a three-team, seven-point teaser with the Titans (-0.5), Saints (+4) and Jets (+4). Buyer beware.
I like the Colts, Chargers and Jets in a three-team parlay. I might include the Titans and make it progressive…or just make both bets.
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants
Chadam Takes: 49ers (+10) over GIANTS
This is my mini-upset of the week, and if Elisha’s chest injury is worse than Coughlin has let on, then I’ll be looking pretty good.
Nick Takes: GIANTS (-10) over 49ers
So what if Giants lost to the Browns last week? The Giants will bounce back at home. I have no respect for Mike Martz, and I think the 49ers are overrated. That’s right, a 2-4 team is overrated. They have only beaten the Lions and the Seahawks while Seattle was injured. The 49ers won’t get more than five wins this season. Boom tho.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Chadam Takes: Steelers (-9.5) over BENGALS
If I were Fitzpatrick, I would be calling in sick to work this weekend. They’ll eventually win a game, just not this one.
Nick Takes: Steelers (-9.5) over BENGALS
I think I got shafted last week because I picked the Bengals thinking they had Carson Palmer. This week, I know they don’t have him, just like I know the Bengals don’t have a chance in this one.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Chadam Takes: Titans (-7.5) over CHIEFS
I couldn’t believe it when coach Herm Edwards said the Chiefs defense looked amazing last week. Wait, they were on bye? And they were playing against the Chiefs offense? Well, that explains everything.
Nick Takes: Titans (-7.5) over CHIEFS
All Chiefs’ players are going to be disappointed because they weren’t traded away before the trade deadline this past Tuesday. They are going to have no motivation to play hard, especially against a team like the Titans. Consider this game the rent money special.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Chadam Takes: BEARS (-3) over Vikings
Yeah, I’ve decided that these two teams are the exact same, like clones of each other. Let’s roll with the home team on this one and see where it takes us.
Nick Takes: BEARS (-3) over Vikings
I’m not sure what to think about these teams after Chicago losing to Atlanta and the Vikings barely beating the Lions. Frerotte has played well so far, but I still don’t trust him.
San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Chadam Takes: BILLS (+1) over Chargers
But only because I have to cheer for Trent Edwards for a month in a league where I lost Romo.
Nick Takes: Chargers (-1) over BILLS
Move over L.T., the Chargers’ offense now revolves around Philip Rivers. Rivers is getting it done, and I expect it to continue against the soon-to-be-exposed Bills.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Chadam Takes: Saints (-3) over PANTHERS
It’s like these two teams didn’t even play games last week. What a line. I have a feeling Nick and I will be selling kidneys to finance our wagering on this one.
Nick Takes: Saints (+3) over PANTHERS
The Panthers’ confidence has to be a little shaken after the whooping the Bucs put on them. I expect the Saints to win if they run McAllister and keep dumping off to Bush in short screen passes. If they stick with that formula, I think they can take the division.
Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams
Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-7) over RAMS
The Rams took out Washington with a lucky fumble return and some field goals. I’m willing to bet that Brad “The Human Checkdown” Johnson can beat the Rams with Dallas’ new stud, Roy Williams.
Nick Takes: RAMS (+7) over Cowboys
I love seeing the Cowboys exposed the past few weeks, but expecting the Rams to knock off two NFC East teams in a row seems a bit much. I’m going to take the points because I’m not really sure what to expect with Brad Johnson and the depleted secondary of the Cowboys.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Chadam Takes: Ravens (+2.5) over DOLPHINS
The only good thing about Miami is Dexter.
Nick Takes: DOLPHINS (-2.5) over Ravens
It’s going to be tough for Joe Flacco to bounce back from his horrible showing last week against the Colts. I think this rookie has finally hit the wall.
Detroit Lions at Houston Texans
Chadam Takes: TEXANS (-8.5) over Lions
Here’s the answer to last week’s puzzle: Use the first letter of my picks to form a message for Sage. (Ed. Note: Look at Chadam finding creative ways to be vulgar.) A little late, I know, but the Indy loss still stings even after Sunday’s comeback over Miami. As for this week, I’m thinking the Texans will rush four and have the other seven defenders chase Calvin Johnson around now that Roy Williams and Jon Kitna are out of the picture.
Nick Takes: TEXANS (-8.5) over Lions
Did anyone see Dan Orlovsky run out of the back of his own end zone last week and not even realize it? Kids in Pop Warner don’t even make those kinds of mistakes. Expecting the Texans to win by more than a touchdown is tough, but I believe the Lions are that bad.
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders
Chadam Takes: Jets (-3) over RAIDERS
Didn’t the Raiders just get pwned like n00bs by 31 points? I’m finding it really hard to hate on the Jets with these money-in-the-bank lines Vegas is providing.
Nick Takes: Jets (-3) over RAIDERS
I’m not a fan of the Jets, but I love this bet. Maybe the Raiders will play hard for their new coach, but I don’t think it matters. No way the Raiders can stop Thomas Jones and Brett Favre, much less put up any points under the inaccurate arm of JaMarcus Russell.
Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers
Chadam Takes: Colts (-1.5) over PACKERS
I hate to say it, but Peyton carved up a very good defense last week. I’ll give them the nod in a possible shootout.
Nick Takes: Colts (-1.5) over PACKERS
I am all about the favorites this week. The Colts finally found their offense just like I knew they would. Aaron Rodgers is about to get schooled by one of the premiere QBs in the NFL. Jeez, I’m going to be putting a lot of money down this weekend.
Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins
Chadam Takes: REDSKINS (-7) over Browns
So much for The Zorn Supremacy. I had the stupid Redskins in an Eliminator league. Guess how that worked out. Anyways, I want to see Cleveland look good one more week before I pay them respect.
Nick Takes: REDSKINS (-7) over Browns
This is an interesting matchup because both teams performed the polar opposite of what we expected last week. The Redskins lost to the winless Rams and the Browns knocked off the undefeated reigning Super Bowl champions. I’m sticking with the Redskins because, looking at the stats last week, I determined that they should have won if it wasn’t for all those turnovers — very uncharacteristic of them.
Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chadam Takes: BUCS (-10.5) over Seahawks
Tampa Bay is like an adopted son to me, and they are one preseason favorite of mine that is actually panning out. By the way, I visited Tampa Bay this past weekend for some boozing and baseball. If you get a chance, hit up Mons Venus. Pacman would give it two thumbs up.
Nick Takes: Seahawks (+10.5) over BUCS
I’m guessing the Bucs will be a little cocky after last week and let their guard down. As the Rams showed us, any team in the NFL is capable of winning on any given Sunday…except the Lions.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Chadam Takes: Broncos (+3) over PATRIOTS
I hope the Broncos blow this game open and look good doing it so Nick will be tempted to wager on them again.
Nick Takes: Broncos (+3) over PATRIOTS
I will finally admit it; the Patriots are worthless without Brady. They just can’t seem to get any offense going. I know Belichick is using running back by committee, but he just needs to pick one so they can get some rhythm and continuity going in that offense. Matt Cassel isn’t going to provide any, so he might as well try out a running back. I think they are capable of winning this game by 10 points, but I just don’t trust them anymore. I’m going to take the points, but the Broncos are still in my doghouse.
The rumblings were true that the Cowboys wanted to start collecting Roy Williams-es on their roster. One is never enough. After today’s count, they have two, their injured safety of horse-collar tackle fame and the underperforming wideout that found himself lost in the Detroit offense this season.
This trade is finally a positive story out of Dallas — a change from the deflating news of Tony Romo’s broken finger and Adam Jones’ indefinite suspension, which will sideline both playmakers for at least four weeks. The Cowboys have lost a lot of key players lately with Romo, safety Roy (the horse-collar Roy) Williams, cornerbacks Adam “Pacman” Jones and Terence Newman, rookie RB Felix Jones and punter Mat McBriar all expected to miss several upcoming games.
Dallas made the move to acquire Roy Williams and a seventh-round pick from the Detroit Lions for Dallas’ first-round, third-round and sixth-round pick. That’s costly, but the trade could pay off big for the Cowboys.
Cowboy Roy’s Fantasy Impact
Roy Williams owners, you just got upgraded.
Not only will Williams now have a second chance to show off his talent and be reborn in Dallas. This move means that Brad Johnson might have a shot of succeeding in Tony Romo’s absence despite his lack of mobility.
Williams, once he learns the playbook, can prevent teams from swarming Terrell Owens’ side of the field and make it easy for the Johnson to hit the open man. Williams has the potential to be the Anquan Boldin to Terrell Owens’ Larry Fitzgerald. Those two WRs aren’t doing too bad this season.
In the long term, Williams could be groomed to be the next T.O. of the Dallas offense with Tony Romo tossing him the deep ball — dynasty owners, take note.
This trade may change the momentum for the Cowboys’ 2008 season and strengthen their offense down the line, but we’ll have to see how it all comes together in Week 7. For now, let’s hope that the two Roys don’t get the lockers confused.
The Cowboys play the Rams, Buccaneers and Giants before having their bye in Week 10. Williams’ true value for fantasy owners might not be seen until Week 11 as it will take him some time to get comfortable in the offense.
Now, About Those Lions
For Detroit, the Roy Williams trade reduces the Lions’ potential on offense significantly, but they are in rebuilding mode. They reportedly placed Jon Kitna on IR today and have no reason to pretend “win now” is an option.
It was a smart move on their part to unload a guy that wanted out like Williams while he had value to bring in more fresh blood next season.
Calvin Johnson will see more targets without Williams, but he also may face more double coverage. Still, the Lions are likely to play from behind all year. Johnson’s value remains about the same.
Fantasy impact, add/drop or trade questions about Cowboy Roy? Drop a line in the comment for foolish answers from the Fools.
It’s about time some of the fantasy studs broke out this year. This week has some matchups to watch. If you ‘bought low’ on guys like Ryan Grant and Maurice Jones-Drew, picked up Deuce McAllister or drafted Bernard Berrian for depth, this week should show you what they’re worth.
For those of you who may have missed the first few weeks of the start or sit breakdown here at the Fools, the “Hot Hands” are players you definitely want to start while “Cold Shoulders” are bums that should leave you hanging this week. The “Bubble Boys” classification points out guys that are somewhere in the middle. They may be (and usually are) good starts, but I still have some concerns about them this week. If you feel that they are your best option, go ahead and start them.
As usual, I’ll be answering sit/start questions in the comments up until the game time on Sunday. I should get to questions by Saturday night or Sunday morning — heading to Dallas for the Red River Rivalry (Texas vs. OU) and a wedding. Who gets married on OU weekend?
Hot Hands
Brett Favre, QB Jets vs. Bengals — He won’t throw six touchdowns, but I think it’s safe to say that Favre should take advantage of the Bengals secondary even if the Jets work on establishing the running game in this one.
David Garrard, QB Jaguars vs. Broncos — He’s had two good weeks and demonstrated that the Jags passing game can produce. He’ll have to show it again against the Broncos if they plan on winning this one.
Kyle Orton, QB Chicago vs. Falcons — Orton is getting more and more done in the passing game. I’d give him a start if you don’t have better options. This week, he gets to take on Atlanta after Rodgers just torched them for three TDs last week.
Ryan Grant, RB Packers vs. Seahawks — He’s had a pretty miserable season thus far, but coming into camp late because of a holdout and then getting injured will do that to you. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry last week and is angry he hasn’t broken one long yet this season like he did all last year. This week against the Seahawks would be a great opportunity for him to return to form against and underperforming defense and control the clock for the Packers.
LeRon McClain, RB Ravens vs. Colts — The Colts can’t stop the run, and McGahee can’t stay healthy. McClain CAN take full advantage of that situation. Even if McGahee hits the field again, there should be plenty of running to go around. The Ravens will try to give Peyton Manning as little time on the field as possible.
Clinton Portis, RB Redskins vs. Rams — Not that you would be sitting one of the best backs through the first five weeks, but I felt obligated to list him just so I could say again how terrible the Rams are. The only danger with Portis is that the passing game scores before he can. I think he’ll get his chances.
Ronnie Brown, RB Dolphins vs. Texans — The ‘Wildcat’ has been ruining opposing defenses the last several weeks. The Dolphins will keep using the formation until someone can stop it. I don’t think that the Texans are that someone.
Deuce McAllister, RB Saints vs. Raiders — Reggie Bush had his big game last week, but Deuce is due. While Oakland’s cornerbacks may be slacking, they should be able to cut a few plays off short of the end zone. Deuce is the battering ram that will get those TDs. I like him to see touches this game with a defense soft on the run.
Steve Slaton, RB Texans vs. Dolphins — On the other side of the ball, Slaton should have a good day against Miami. The Dolphins have been surprisingly decent against the run this year, but the Texans should find a way to get the ball in his hands and involve him the passing game so that he still has a good day for fantasy owners. Schaub will want to ease back into the game slowly coming off his illness, and Slaton will be his crutch.
Bernard Berrian, WR Vikings vs. Lions — Berrian had his season highs in catches, yards and touchdowns last week against the Saints and went over 100 yards for the first time this season. He should continue to see plenty of looks against the Lions since Sidney Rice is still out for this one. This week should be the week to start him.
Santana Moss, WR Redskins vs. Rams — Again, the only concern you should have about starting Moss is whether or not Portis will break every other carry for a long touchdown. That’s a good concern to have.
Jerricho Cotchery, WR Jets vs. Bengals — Cotchery should be the stretch man for Favre in this one, and the Bengals won’t be shutting down Cotchery or Coles on passing plays. For the sake of padding stats, Favre’s gotta hit Cotchery for a score. Coles remains a good start as well.
Washington Redskins D/ST vs. Rams — We’re really picking on the Rams here. If you need a bye week fill for defense this week, the Redskins should be a top option facing one of the worst offenses in football. St. Louis shouldn’t put many points up on this unit that has been holding back the Eagles and Cowboys offensive powerhouses the last two weeks.
Bubble Boys
J.T. O’Sullivan, QB 49ers vs. Eagles — We’ve seen O’Sullivan take the hits and still make the plays, but this week, the hits might be too much for him. The Eagles should attack, attack and attack while keeping a lock on Isaac Bruce, O’Sullivan’s hottest target thus far. For O’Sullivan to have a good game, Bryant Johnson and other supporting cast members will have to step up.
Gus Frerotte, QB Vikings vs. Lions — Don’t get me wrong. Frerotte is still worth a start if you need him, and I think he will give Berrian a good day. I only put him on the bubble because you have to worry that Peterson will go off. I don’t think that the Vikings will abandon the run, so I would peg him for a conservatively good day.
Eli Manning, QB Giants vs. Browns — Eli has led one of the most powerful offenses in football this season, but I have some concerns this week. With Plax returning, will there be tension in the passing game? And will the Giants really get a chance to open up the passing game with all their powerful runners? I think Eli is still a solid start, but if you have another stud, you might consider them. Post a comment below if you are having a tough time making the call.
Peyton Manning, QB Colts vs. Ravens — Both Manning brothers are bubble boys this week. While Peyton would normally be a lock as a start after his bye has passed, the Colts still seem like a struggling offense. The offensive line is holding them back severely. I’d still take a chance on Manning to do it all against the Ravens, but don’t be shocked if he posts another low week.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jaguars vs. Broncos — On paper, this matchup looks great, but I’m still apprehensive about starting MJD after the Broncos held Warrick Dunn and Earnest Graham relatively in check. I’d still start him in this one, but don’t demand a huge performance. The Jags may have to abandon the run to keep pace if Cutler and the Broncos explode.
Cold Shoulders
Derek Anderson, QB Browns vs. Giants — Anderson practiced being comfortable on his back this week because he’ll be taking a lot of hits here against the Giants. They’ll come at him all day long. I don’t think it’ll be pretty.
DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, RB Panthers vs. Buccaneers — Riding the hot hand with Williams this week? Don’t. The Bucs have a stout defense against the run, and they should keep the score low just like their game with the Broncos last week. While I am sure one team will have success running the ball, I can’t say which will win the day. I think you should be able to find a more definite start at RB. If not, I’d put Stewart ahead of Williams.
All Detroit Lions vs. Vikings — We’re not really sure who’s starting at quarterback for the Lions since Kitna may be out, and that uncertainty takes the Detroit passing game down several notches as Orlovsky and Drew Stanton still need to settle into the position before they’re worth a fantasy start. The run stoppers on Minnesota won’t let Kevin Smith or Rudi Johnson go anywhere. This week could be a lot of goose eggs for your Lions.
Jamal Lewis, RB Browns vs. Giants — The Browns passing game isn’t doing enough this season to take pressure off of Lewis, and the Giants are going to go after Anderson all day. I don’t think Lewis gets many opportunities, and I don’t see him doing much with the ones he does get.
Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR Bengals vs. Jets — With Carson Palmer sitting this weekend, you really are taking a big chance starting either of these guys. While it might be a shootout, Fitzpatrick is more likely to turn the ball over than score when he goes long.
Martin Gramatica, K Saints vs. Raiders — Okay, this one is just a joke. Gramatica is on IR, but his injury is probably more to his pride and reputation than his leg. Looks like I was right in thinking he would be gone by Friday.
Not Starting Due to Injury
Note that the latest reports have Brian Westbrook, Carson Palmer, Reggie Brown, Deion Branch, Tony Scheffler and Anquan Boldin sitting out this week. Jon Kitna, Brian Griese, Matt Hasselbeck and Kellen Winslow might also miss. Keep your eye on injury reports Sunday morning.
Sleepers
Zach Miller, TE Raiders vs. Saints — Miller ended last season as JaMarcus Russell’s most trustworthy target. He’s looking like he might lead the team in receptions this season, so he’s worth taking a look at this week. Russell could look for him down the field when the Raiders need a score to match the Saints.
Miami Dolphins D/ST vs. Texans — If all of the good defenses are taken, you could do much worse than the Dolphins. They’ve held up against the Chargers and Patriots. The Texans should have Schaub back under center, but that shouldn’t keep Miami from getting some sacks and turnovers to keep the score low in this one.
Having trouble setting your roster this week? Post your questions down below if you would like the Fools to help you out.
“Just when I thought I was out…they pull me back in.”
There are some crazily enticing lines this week that are making me open up my wallet again. Thanks, Vegas! Besides, I need to find another way to spend my time after I developed this nasty drinking habit after Sunday’s Texans game…
Dear Sage Rosenfels:
You didn’t look too good on Sunday. In case you’re reading, I left a hidden message for you in the article.
Signed,
The entire city of Houston.
I’ll post the answer to Sage’s hidden message in next week’s picks article, and I think you’ll enjoy it. If you think you know what the answer is, please post your guess in the comments. (The Sage picture linked to in our letter is via Gallo on ESPN. Check his selected pics from this week for more good ones.)
Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Chadam Takes: SAINTS (-7.5) over Raiders
Gotta go with the Saints here, even after their Monday night implosion. I’ll chalk Week 5 up as an off week, but if I were Brees, I would be praying for Colston’s return.
Nick Takes: SAINTS (-7.5) over Raiders
I think it’s absolutely hilarious that Reggie Bush had a great game, but the Saints still lose. After the game, he has to act like he’s not excited. He played great, but the team lost. Haha. The Raiders suck; they will lose this game by at least 10 points.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Chadam Takes: Ravens (+5) over COLTS
Out of the last three games the Colts have played, they have received two wins because the opposing team choked the game away and almost got a third if it wasn’t for Josh Scobee’s clutch kick. I’m really excited to see the Colts finish 7-9 this year, which will be followed with every media outlet passing the torch of “Best Manning QB” to Eli. Wait, you mean it’s already happening?
Nick Takes: COLTS (-5) over Ravens
The Ravens have looked good this season, but I just can’t get myself to trust Joe Flacco. The Colts desperately need a good game at home to build some confidence.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Chadam Takes: JETS (-6) over Bengals
Favre, your team’s line is too good to pass up. Thank God the Bengals haven’t had their bye week yet because I really like betting against them.
Nick Takes: Bengals (+6) over JETS
The Bengals are going to pounce on somebody soon, and I’m gambling this week is when it happens.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chadam Takes: BUCCANEERS (-1.5) over Panthers
Under normal circumstances, I would laugh at a team that only managed one touchdown against Denver, but I have no idea what to think of Carolina yet. They’re 4-1, but two of those wins are home games against Atlanta and Kansas City, not exactly world-beaters. Also, the Panthers barely beat San Diego in Week 1. I’ll go with my Bucs on this one.
Nick Takes: Panthers (+1.5) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs need quarterback security badly. The whole team just seems restless and out of sync in my opinion. Getting shutdown by the Broncos defense after the Chiefs destroyed the Broncos in Week 4 is embarrassing.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Chadam Takes: Lions (+13.5) over VIKINGS
Come on, even if you don’t like Detroit, you have to love it when Rod Marinelli gets interviewed: “I’m a living example of what fight is all about,” or “Ever, ever…I love this game too much.” It’s like he’s trying to generate stereotypical football coach quotes, but he learned them from Mike Tyson. And yes, that’s the only reason why I’m taking the Lions.
Nick Takes: Lions (+13.5) over VIKINGS
I fully expect the Vikings to win this game, but I expect the Lions to get enough garbage points on the Vikings secondary to justify taking the points. That is, assuming the Lions’ players are still trying. The trade deadline hasn’t passed yet, so hopefully, they can manage trying for one week more before they officially give up.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Chadam Takes: FALCONS (+3) over Bears Kyle Orton probably got more ass than normal after playing like Brady last week against Detroit. That said, I’m warming up to the Falcons at home, and the Bears’ wins over the Colts and Lions aren’t impressive given the current play of those two teams.
Nick Takes: Bears (-3) over FALCONS
Both of these teams have been playing surprisingly well. I like the Bears defense a little more in this game though.
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans
Chadam Takes: TEXANS (-3) over Dolphins
You wonder why fans of tortured teams always wait for the other shoe to drop until the game is over. It’s games like the Colts-Texans match last week. I’m starting to understand what Red Sox fans went through a little more. In case you’re wondering, I’ll be watching the upcoming game with a handle of tequila in case something goes wrong. Speaking of Miami, apparently the only play you need to use to go to the Super Bowl is the direct snap to Ronnie Brown. You’d think that after seeing Miami shock two decent teams by using that play repetitively, the Texans coaching staff would pick up on it and practice defending it…right? My liver hopes so.
Nick Takes: Dolphins (+3) over TEXANS
Last week, I witnessed one of the greatest meltdowns for a professional sports team. The Texans found unthinkable ways to lose that game to the Colts. How can that same team possibly be favored in any game, much less against a team that just beat the Patriots and Chargers in consecutive games?
St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins
Chadam Takes: REDSKINS (-13.5) over Rams
Okay, there’s no way I’m betting against the Redskins and the Zorn Supremacy again. They’ve cost me three wins already this year. Are they really a top-three team? That division is awesome. The NFC East might only have five losses all year outside of the division between all four teams. (They only have one through five weeks: Philly to Chicago in Week 4.)
Nick Takes: REDSKINS (-13.5) over Rams
Hail to the Redskins! I’ve been riding shotgun on the Redskins’ bandwagon since before the season started, and I don’t plan on getting off anytime soon — that’s what she said.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Chadam Takes: BRONCOS (-3.5) over Jaguars
Unless Jacksonville traded Garrard for Cutler yesterday and I missed it, Denver should be getting a touchdown at home against the Jags.
Nick Takes: Jaguars (+3.5) over BRONCOS
I’m still pissed at the Broncos, and I am choosing the Jags purely out of spite. Maybe the Jags can find their running game in Denver.
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers
Chadam Takes: Eagles (–5.5) over 49ERS
Really? The Eagles are last place in their division? Donovan McNabb hasn’t had a great game since the first week, but I think he’ll get back on track here.
Nick Takes: Eagles (-5.5) over 49ERS
The Eagles are getting dangerously close to panic time. They need this win if they want to keep pace with the other NFC East teams for the two NFC wild-card spots. I’m guessing they find a way to win.
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
Chadam Takes: Cowboys (–5.5) over CARDINALS
So what happened there, Dallas? I put some blind faith in you by picking you to win without even looking at the spread, and you almost end the Bengals’ quest to go winless? I think Owens and Romo wanted to let Cincinnati win so they could go to the inevitable boat party that Cedric Benson would throw after the game. This line is pretty low; the Cowboys are too talented to put less than 30 on the board.
Nick Takes: Cowboys (-5.5) over CARDINALS
The Cowboys are better than the Cardinals. There’s my analysis on the game. But do the Cowboys have anybody that made the NFL All-’N Sync team? Turns out they are better than the Cardinals in that respect, too.
Nick PRESENTS The 2008 All-’N Sync Team:
After thinking about it, Matt Leinart isn’t Justin Timberlake. J.T. was the leader of the group who famously dated Britney Spears and Cameron Diaz. Hmm…who does that sound like in the NFL? Tony Romo! Romo leads the Cowboys, dated singer Carrie Underwood and currently shacks up with Jessica Simpson. Here are the other members of the All-’N Sync team:
Tony Romo A.K.A. Justin Timberlake: For the reasons mentioned above.
Matt Leinart A.K.A. J.C. Chasez: He doesn’t lead the group, but he still gets plenty of groupie action.
Brady Quinn A.K.A. Lance Bass: Eventually, he will come out of the closet and be on “Dancing with the Stars.”
Jared Lorenzen A.K.A. Joey Fatone: He is the fat one of the group and wasn’t even very good as a backup.
Jon Kitna A.K.A. Chris Kirkpatrick: Do you realize Jon Kitna is in the fairly exclusive 30,000+ yards passing club? Yeah, most of you didn’t realize Kirkpatrick was in ‘N Sync, and now that you know, you still think he sucks.
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Chadam Takes: Packers (+2.5) over SEAHAWKS
Every once in a while, I see a line and think “Did Vegas mean –2.5? Or possibly –12.5?” What a joke. This bet almost seems too good to be true.
Nick Takes: Packers (+2.5) over SEAHAWKS
This spread is a joke, right? The Seahawks shouldn’t be favored against anybody other than the Rams. I’m dropping some serious coin on this game.
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers
Chadam Takes: Patriots (+6) over CHARGERS
Lines like this one make me wonder how good Vegas thinks the Patriots are. To be fair, I have no idea either. I’m interested to see if either team will run direct snaps and hope the other team didn’t learn from its previous game against Miami.
Nick Takes: Patriots (+6) over CHARGERS
The Chargers have been very disappointing. The Patriots have been disappointing, too, but the Patriots have won most of their games while being disappointing. That’s the difference.
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns
Eli Manning "Unstoppable" Ad Courtesy of Citizen Watches (via Sports Illustrated)
Chadam Takes: Giants (–7.5) at BROWNS
Forget Peyton. Elisha is now Archie’s favorite daughter. Poor Cooper. He must have one hell of an inferiority complex. I’ll admit, as long as Elisha is facing the Browns and Seahawks, he’s looking damn good. I would even go so far as to say he’s unstoppable, har har.
Nick Takes: Giants (-7.5) over BROWNS
It’s tough not to pick the Giants right now. They have shown they are very good at picking on the losers of the league. The Browns happen to be one of the losers of the league. You do the math.
Chadam and Nick had a rough weekend. Nick was swamped last week trying to put together a fantasy lineup that could stop my crushing force of a team in our shared fantasy football league. Unfortunately for Nick, it looks like his efforts were in vain.
Chadam, on the other hand, spent the entire weekend crying uncontrollably because Chris Simms was cut from the Tennessee Titans roster. I’m not exactly sure if that was the reason, but he has a special place in his heart for the spleenless. If he has a better reason than that for why he was unable to get his picks into a cohesive article before Sunday, he’ll have to let you know in the comments.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Chadam Takes: Bears (-3.5) over LIONS
I think Forte runs for 500 yards, and that’s a conservative guess.
Nick Takes: Bears (-3.5) over LIONS
Does anybody know if Jon Kitna is back? Better question: Does anyone care? Will the Lions play better without Matt Millen there? It doesn’t matter. The Bears defense looks like it’s back to being healthy and dominating.
Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers
Chadam Takes: Falcons over PACKERS
Nick Takes: Falcons over PACKERS
Jacob’s Ed. Note: Both Nick and Chadam were unable to register a pick since the spread on this game was not set until late on Saturday. Apparently, Vegas wanted to find out whether Aaron Rodgers would be playing or not. We’ll have to count this pick as a “no contest” for the sake this battle of betting.
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Chadam Takes: Chargers (-6.5) over DOLPHINS
I’m not sure what to think of these two teams. Both have been all over the place these last few weeks. L.T. hasn’t really looked like himself lately, but if there was ever a game for him to blow up, it’s this week’s game against the Dolphins.
Nick Takes: Chargers (-6.5) over DOLPHINS
The only reason I’m hesitant on this pick is because the Dolphins are at home and have had an extra week to prepare for this game, but the Chargers showed last week against the Raiders that they are capable of coming back against a team they shouldn’t be losing to in the first place.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
Chadam Takes: GIANTS (-7) over Seahawks
Vegas really doesn’t make these Seahawks games hard to bet against. This game is one of my favorite lines of the week. Too bad Favre stomped on my heart and wallet. Otherwise, I’d probably bet on this game.
Nick Takes: GIANTS (-7) over Seahawks
The Seahawks are going to get better as Deion Branch and Bobby Engram get back in the mix but not this week. It will take some time for them to get back into a rhythm, and the Giants are at home after a bye.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Chadam Takes: EAGLES (-5.5) over Redskins
If the Redskins win here, I’m a believer.
Nick Takes: Redskins (+5.5) over EAGLES
Did Vegas not watch these two teams last week? Redskins knocked off everybody’s favorite team, and the Eagles looked dreadful losing to the Bears. Taking the points on this one is a no-brainer. I would also like to remind everyone that I bet on the Redskins to win straight up last week. Cha-ching!
Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
Chadam Takes: PANTHERS (-9.5) over Chiefs
Yeah, there’s no chance the Chiefs surprise the Panthers after the Broncos got stomped last week.
Nick Takes: PANTHERS (-9.5) over Chiefs
I would like the Chiefs in this one if only they weren’t going against one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs could keep the score within double digits, but only if L.J. gets going. I’m saying that doesn’t happen.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Chadam Takes: Titans (+2.5) over RAVENS
I’m officially driving this Titans bandwagon. They always seem to get really low spreads. This defense is for real, and I’ll be taking them until they don’t cover for a few weeks in a row.
Nick Takes: Titans (+2.5) over RAVENS
This pick is my equivalent of Chadam’s “rent money special.” I don’t care if this game is a trap bet by Vegas or not. Kerry Collins better be smart enough not to give the Ravens defense any points because the Ravens offense is definitely not going to see the end zone in this game.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Chadam Takes: TEXANS (+3) over Colts
The Texans are going to rip off four straight wins on this homestand they have coming up. My man crush Steve Slaton looks primed for a big game against this punchless, Sanders-less defense.
Nick Takes: Colts (-3) at TEXANS
The Texans looked good in their loss last week, but the Colts just had their bye and come in with this game as a must-win to avoid starting 1-3. I like the Colts to rise up and take this one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos
Chadam Takes: Buccaneers (+3) over BRONCOS
Nick got screwed by the Broncos last week on a teaser, and if there were enough asterisks in the world, I’d post his email rant on Cutler. Let’s just say I don’t think Mary Tyler Moore will be asking Nick to be a spokesperson for the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation.
Nick Takes: Buccaneers (+3) at BRONCOS
I had a pretty big bet on a 10-point teaser last week, and all the Broncos had to do what beat the Chiefs straight up just like the 12 teams before them did. They let me down. The Broncos are in my doghouse until further notice. Anybody who loses to the Chiefs does not deserve to be favored in their next game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys
Chadam Takes: COWBOYS (-17) over Bengals Jacob’s Ed. Note: Chadam made this pick without even knowing the spread. Bold.
Nick Takes: COWBOYS (-17) over Bengals
I have several questions about this game. Is Carson Palmer going to play? Does that even matter? Are the Cowboys going to give the ball to Barber more or get the ball to T.O. even more? Is it possible to turn down 17 points in an NFL game? I did a little research, and there have been 17 games through the first four weeks that had blowouts of 17 or more points. I like it when the same number randomly repeats itself in some obscure context. Let the blowout begin!
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals
Chadam Takes: CARDINALS (-1) over Bills
I’m throwing last week’s game against the Jets out the window since the Cardinals defense apparently took their bye week. All bets are off if the Cardinals crap the bed again this week.
Nick Takes: CARDINALS (-1) over Bills
I still haven’t gotten to watch the Bills play on television. Regardless, I’m picking the Cardinals to rebound from their embarrassing loss to the Jets and win this one for Kurt Warner. If they don’t, I’m guessing we will start seeing some drives led by boy band wannabe Matt Leinart. If there was an NFL version of ‘N Sync, who do you think would be in the group? Leinart would probably be Justin, and Brady Quinn would be Lance Bass for obvious reasons. After those two, I’m not sure who else would take part just as I’m unsure who the other members of ‘N Sync are. I’ll think about this NFL boy band and announce my NFL ‘N Sync team next week.
New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers
Chadam Takes: 49ERS (+3) over Patriots
Whatever. It’s sad the Pats lost Brady because they really aren’t interesting without him.
Nick Takes: Patriots (-3) over 49ERS
I can’t accept that the Patriots are nothing more than a mediocre team without Tom Brady. Everybody has always wondered if the Patriots’ dynasty was more a result of the coaching of Belichick or the play of Brady. We will find out in the coming weeks. I’m curious to see how the coaching strategy changes after the bye week.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Chadam Takes: JAGUARS (-4) over Steelers
I’m giving this Jags team one more week before I dump them. They stole a win from my Texans, and that victory could inspire them to not suck so much.
Nick Takes: Steelers (+4) over JAGUARS
The Steelers are turning ugly wins into an art form. I think this one will be a close game, so I’m taking the points. There should also be some extra motivation for the Steelers to win after losing to the Jags in the playoffs last year.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Chadam Takes: SAINTS (-3) over Vikings
Brees is going to throw for 300 yards, rain or shine. I’ll go with the home team for this MNF.
Nick Takes: SAINTS (-3) over Vikings
Deuce McAllister is back! I would love to see Reggie Bush in a locker room fight with another NFL player, especially a guy like Deuce. Reggie is jacked up out of his mind, but I get the impression that he is probably soft (for an NFL player) and from the suburbs of California. Deuce…well, first of all, his name is Deuce. That name immediately gives him street cred in my opinion. I’m guessing he has been in a street fight or two and probably while working as a bouncer for some house of ill repute. Deuce would never date a bimbo like Kim Kardashian. He would pimp a girl like Kim Kardashian. I’m picking the Saints because Deuce is back, and the Saints have had some wide receivers step up in the past few weeks to make up for the injured Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey.
Last week, Nick and I were on fire. We had identical picks for 12 of the 15 games, and in those games, the two of us went 8-3 with one push.
Sadly, I lost the three picks on which we disagreed. After a sterling 11-3-1 record in Week 2, Nick is now up by three games.
Before we get started, let me explain a bit of what goes on behind the curtain.
While we don’t discuss our picks before we send them in to Jacob each week, Nick and I do watch football together on Sundays with all of our friends and participate in a mutual fantasy football league (with Jacob). It should come as no surprise that our picks and our logic are often similar, but no worries here. I’m going to beat Nick like he owes me money this week.
Here are some stats from the season thus far:
Home Team Winning Outright:
16-15
Favorites:
19-12
Home Team Against the Spread (ATS):
14-16-1
Favorites ATS:
15-14-1
Nothing out of the ordinary. The favorites are winning roughly two-thirds of the games, and the spread splits are very even. We’ll see if the trends continue in Week 3.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Chadam Takes: FALCONS (-5.5) over Chiefs
I wonder if Nick is doubling down on the Chiefs after last week. My condolences go out to L.J. owners — the situation in Kansas City has “Moss in Oakland” written all over it.
Nick Takes: FALCONS (-5.5) over Chiefs
I placed my faith in the Chiefs last week, and they tomahawked any hope I had of winning my bet early on. The Falcons are competing, and I expect Michael “The Burner” Turner to have another good game closer to his Week 1 performance than his Week 2 one.
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills
Chadam Takes: BILLS (-9.5) over Raiders
The Raiders should be getting more points here, especially considering this game is at Buffalo. How long will it be until teams start throwing 11 men in the box against McFadden?
Nick Takes: BILLS (-9.5) over Raiders
The Bills look like they are for real. They’ve beaten two playoff teams from last year convincingly. I don’t expect them to have much trouble with the Raiders while at home. A preemptive congrats to Marshawn Lynch owners in Week 3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Chadam Takes: BEARS (-3) over Buccaneers
Even with Hester doubtful for this game, I have to go with Chicago. This one won’t be a barn burner. The over/under is 35.5 points, and I’m thinking less than 30 points will be scored in this game.
Nick Takes: BEARS (-3) over Buccaneers
This game will set the tone for the first half of the season for each of these teams. Both these teams have decent running games, great defenses and QBs they wish they didn’t have to start. The Bears are at home, and that makes the difference in my mind.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Chadam Takes: Texans (+5) over TITANS
Albert Haynesworth is a monster. That being sad, I think people are sleeping on the Texan’s offense after they faced a great Pittsburgh D and took the fantasy back burner with the unexpected bye week.
Nick Takes: Texans (+5) over TITANS
The Titans have looked really good so far this season, but as a Hurricane Ike evacuee who still hasn’t been able to return home, I have to make the homer pick with the Texans. Houston will need some points from their defense and special teams to make this upset happen.
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
Chadam Takes: Panthers (+3.5) over VIKINGS
The Panthers have looked surprisingly good in the first two weeks. With Adrian Peterson limited and potentially out, this pick is a no-brainer. Here’s the real question: how good is Carolina?
Nick Takes: Panthers (+3.5) over VIKINGS
Talk about no respect. The 2-0 Panthers are underdogs against the 0-2 Vikings. I was liking the Vikings in this one until I saw that, and then I heard they are panicking and starting their backup QB, Gus Frerotte. I remember when I was younger, my dad told me only an idiot would bet on Gus Frerotte. Well, Dad, I’m trying…
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Chadam Takes: PATRIOTS (-13) over Dolphins
I really don’t like giving two TDs, but it’s Chad Pennington for crying out loud. Besides, I am warming up to the underdog role the Patriots are taking. Here’s to hoping the home team dominates.
Nick Takes: PATRIOTS (-13) over Dolphins
The Patriots needed some time to get over their long lost lover, Brady, but now it’s time for everything to click with their newest pretty boy, Matt Cassel. Consider this the honeymoon. I’m expecting the Patriots to put up about 50 points in this slaughter game.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants
Chadam Takes: GIANTS (-13) over Bengals
Wow, now that is a spread! I’m only laying the points because I really don’t believe in Palmer anymore. Is he even a top-12 quarterback in real life? Look at his stats for last year minus the insane Week 2 Cleveland game, and his line was 3730 yards, 20 TDs and 18 INTs. That’s Philip Rivers in 2007 (3152-21-15) or Rex Grossman in 2006 (3193-23-20). Food for thought.
Nick Takes: GIANTS (-13) over Bengals
I wonder how bad it feels to be a Bengals fan. They must be the saddest, disappointed and perplexed fans in the nation. Is that really Carson Palmer or is his sister filling in for him?
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins
Chadam Takes: Cardinals (+3) over REDSKINS
This is my favorite pick of the week, and I’m debating hitting up a sperm bank this week to get some extra cash. I’m feeling another vintage Kurt Warner game — 392 yards for three TDs and a pick. Those of you who got him late in drafts are looking pretty smart right now — two thumbs pointed at this guy! (Ed. Note: Eighth round of a 16-round, 14-team draft with less than 10 QBs off the board isn’t exactly late, champ.)
Nick Takes: REDSKINS (-3) over Cardinals
I was looking for a reason to believe in Jason Campbell, and the Redskins delivered in a comeback win against the Saints. I question how the Cards will fair versus a playoff-caliber opponent.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Chadam Takes: 49ERS (-4) over Lions
What a strange game. I never really know what to do when two crappy teams play against each other. I think that San Francisco has a better chance of stopping Kitna & Co. than Detroit has of stopping Gore.
Nick Takes: Lions (+4) over 49ERS
The Lions might be the most talented perennial loser there is in the NFL. They have some sick receivers in “Megatron” (Calvin Johnson) and Roy Williams. Remember when Roy Williams admitted to stiffing pizza delivery guys? That was awesome. I’m picking the Lions just for that.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Chadam Takes: SEAHAWKS (-9) over Rams
And I will never back the stupid Rams again. (Ed. Note: Chadam picked the Rams last week.) The only other way you could convince me to take Seattle and give nine points is if they were playing Notre Dame. If I set the over/under for sacks on Marc Bulger at seven, would you take the over? I would.
Nick Takes: Rams (+9) over Seahawks
Does anybody actually want to watch this game? I expect the Seahawks to win, but they don’t deserve to be favored by nine points over anyone. I’m sure Chadam won’t take the Rams three weeks in a row, so I’ll take them for the sake of being different than him. Chadam and I only differed on three picks last week, and I was right in all three cases.
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos
Chadam Takes: BRONCOS (-5.5) over Saints
Wow, what an offense out there in Denver. Congratulations on making the fantasy playoffs, Cutler owners. I’ll be teasing the hell out of this game.
Nick Takes: BRONCOS (-5.5) over Saints
Is it considered jumping on the bandwagon if I’ve picked them to win their first two weeks? I don’t care, but I’m picking them until they prove me wrong. And will someone please tell Drew Brees to throw Shockey the ball! I reached for Shockey in my fantasy league, and he is not proving me correct so far. (Still, my fantasy team is 2-0.)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles
Chadam Takes: EAGLES (-3) over Steelers
This one is the game of the week, and I could go either way with this pick. Considering the minor questions surrounding Roethlisberger’s health, I’m siding with the home team in this one.
Nick Takes: EAGLES (-3) over Steelers
This game is probably the toughest to pick this week. I like both teams, but the stupid Steelers defied normal logic last week and didn’t kick a field goal late in the game that would have covered the spread. That bad karma is coming back to them this week with a loss to an in-state rival, the Eagles.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Chadam Takes: Jaguars (+5.5) over COLTS
With three of the Colt’s O linemen injured and their defense (sans Sanders) looking suddenly mediocre, this game doesn’t look as obvious as it might seem given Jacksonville’s struggles the first two weeks.
Nick Takes: COLTS (-5.5) over Jaguars
Looking over my picks, I like the home teams a lot this week. That’s precisely why I like the Colts to cover in this game. They also get Dallas Clark back, which I think will be a big boost. The Jags will have a hint of desperation in their play calling this week that will backfire on them.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Chadam Takes: RAVENS (-2.5) over Browns
While I think the Browns will bounce back soon, I’ll go against them for one more week. Would people be worried about Braylon Edwards if he hadn’t dropped that 53-yard TD pass in Week 1? I’m buying him. No worries.
Nick Takes: Browns (+2.5) over RAVENS
I don’t like the Browns, but I think they can beat the rookie-led Ravens in this one. The Browns desperately need for Braylon Edwards to break out of his slump in this game.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-3) over PACKERS
Too bad Rodgers can’t face the Lions every week, huh? This game is another favorite spread of mine. Dallas is for real.
Nick Takes: Cowboys (-3) over PACKERS
This one is going to be a good game to watch. I like the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers a lot, but so far, they have only beat winless teams. The Cowboys have looked unstoppable with Marion the Barbarian and Owens. I think the Cowboys get this one, but I’m guessing we’ll see a rematch of these two teams in January.
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
Updated: Corrected home team and spread on Jets at Chargers. I won’t point fingers.
Chadam Takes: Jets (+8.5) over CHARGERS
I’m still on the Jets bandwagon, so I gotta take the points in this one. While Sproles is good, he’s not even close to a healthy L.T. The Chargers might win this one but definitely not by nine points.
Nick Takes: Jets (+8.5) over CHARGERS
I’ve been flip-flopping on this pick all week. I like the Chargers to win, but I don’t know what to expect from Brett Favre. His gunslinger attitude will either keep it close or blow it wide open. I’m going to say he does enough in the fourth quarter to keep it close.
Obviously, things change in fantasy football. There’s no Tom Brady, and therefore, no Randy Moss. Offenses in Seattle, Cincinnati and Cleveland are in shambles. Jacksonville keeps turning it over, and the Denver Broncos might have the most explosive offense of 2008.
Shanny, we knew you had it in you. I won’t even say that I called it. (I CALLED IT), but it was right there in front of our noses. This year might be a competition between T.O. and Baby T.O. for the top wide receiver spot.
Who else is hot this week? (Well, besides theobvious.)
Hot Hands
J.T. O’Sullivan, Bryant Johnson, Isaac Bruce vs. Lions: We are starting bold. The 49ers face off against Mike Martz’s former home. I think Detroit probably knows a lot of Martz’s schemes, but Martz also knows how to exploit the Detroit defense — not like that information is really top secret. I like this one to be high scoring and crazy. If you have J.T. O’Sullivan on your roster, this week and next week against the Saints look like his best starts of the year.
Frank Gore vs. Lions: Detroit cannot stop the run. Gore will get some action.
Jon Kitna, Calvin Johnson vs. 49ers: An explosive contest and a weak secondary make the interception-prone QB a nice play this week.
All Your Broncos vs. Saints:Jay Cutler and his boys manhandled the Chargers defense last week. They’ll do the same to the Saints. Brandon Marshall could break the record for most receptions in a game in this one. I like it. The only exception to this rule is Selvin Young, who might be only a yardage guy from here on out.
Chris Johnson vs. Texans: Fast Willie Parker had 3 TDs, and this kid is faster.
Reggie Bush vs. Broncos: He’ll be relied upon as a target against the corners in Denver. Bush will have to pull some big plays to win, and Darren Sproles made the Broncos look they were standing still a few times last week.
Steve Smith vs. Vikings: Just in case you forgot he was on your roster. If he’s not on your roster and you want to get crazy, send a trade offer to see if you can smuggle him away before he even sees the field. With Randy Moss gone, Steve Smith might be the only challenger to Terrell Owens and Baby T.O. for the top WR spot.
Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw vs. Bengals: Destroy, Brandon Jacobs! Destroy! Ahmad Bradshaw even makes a decent start since he’s forgotten what he learned in kindergarten and no longer plans on sharing touchdowns. What does Jacobs have to do for a touchdown? Run over TWO safeties. I think Jacobs gets his first score this week. The Bengals defensive players are only on the roster because they are trying out for the offense.
Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress vs. Bengals: Surely, Eli and Plax will join in on the fun as well. You can’t just let Brandon Jacobs run the ball all day.
Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Matt Cassel vs. Dolphins: This week, Moss wakes up. He still remembers what to do when the ball comes his way.
Buffalo Bills D/ST vs. Raiders: JaMarcus Russell against the aggressive, healthy Buffalo defense. *Salivating* If the Oakland cornerbacks come to play, this game could become a contest to control the clock. Buffalo’s schedule gets good from here.
Philip Rivers vs. Jets: With L.T. slowed by his injury, Rivers could look to find Chambers again. They’ll want to put plenty of points on the board to keep themselves out of trouble in this one.
Matt Hasselbeck, John Carlson vs. Rams: New wide receivers and an easy day against the Rams could be all that Hasselbeck needs to come alive again. He might be the slow-starting Brees of 2007. Even though Hasselbeck gets new hands this week, he just might be growing fond of Carlson’s. Look for the rookie TE to have a decent day against the Rams — who doesn’t?
Julius Jones vs. Rams: Jones could have a similar day to his 127 yards and a TD against San Francisco.
Bubble Boys
Michael Turner vs. Chiefs: Injury could hinder his performance, but if he’s 100 percent, Turner could tear the Chiefs run defense up just like Michael Bush and Darren McFadden did last week. Pop this bubble if you see him off the injury report come Friday.
Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings vs. Cowboys: If Rodgers wants to win this one, he’s probably going to have to air it to stay ahead of Romo. I respect the Dallas corners even if they have given up a lot of yardage. Rodgers isn’t going to have as big a week as he did against Detroit, but he should do something.
Randy McMichael vs. Seahawks: Seattle might be on the worst defenses that the Rams face all year, but they should still get after Bulger. McMichael could have another Week 1 performance where he reaps the benefit of Bulger’s rushed passing. It’s a risk I’m willing to take unless, of course, I have a better option.
Brett Favre vs. Chargers: Favre’s risky, vertical throwing could get him into trouble against this secondary. The Chargers are hungry for a win after they had the Broncos’ game stolen by ‘Roid Ref. You might consider giving Favre a week off, but then again, it’s Monday night. That Stuckey guy will probably nail a TD or two down. That guy’s my nemesis.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor vs. Colts: Matt Forte didn’t need that great of an offensive line to run on the Colts. The Jags line could come together to make these two productive again, but maybe the Colts go up by so much, they don’t get a chance. I remember when this Colts-Jaguars matchup used to be a heated showdown…those were the days.
Larry Johnson vs. Falcons: L.J. is losing carries to Jamaal Charles, and I hated Charles when he was a Longhorn. Charles is just a fast pair of legs with unsure hands, but L.J. is an unsure set of legs with fast hands. (That means he’s good at magic tricks like making a five-yard play into a one-yard gain.) If Johnson’s yards per carry decreases, it’s because he’s running backwards. Might be time to put Charles on your roster.
Cold Shoulders
Lee Evans vs. Raiders: I know Jay Cutler exposed the Raiders lazy cornerback play, but Evans will get blanketed by he who cannot be named, Nnamdi Asomugha. While Evans is back to fantasy relevance this year, he should have a quiet one this week.
Pierre Thomas, Deuce McAllister vs. Broncos: You can run on Denver, but who is doing the running? If Deuce really does get worked into this rotation, it just muddies the value of Thomas. Are they playing Denver or is this Shanahan coaching their run game too?
Earnest Graham vs. Bears: He had a nice score last week, but this week’s Bears defense won’t let him get loose. He’ll have yardage, but I wouldn’t count on much more than that.
Ryan Grant vs. Cowboys: Until he’s healthy, he’s not going to have a good game. Against the Cowboys defense, he’ll need a good hamstring to be effective.
Steve Slaton, Chris Taylor vs. Titans: The Titans eat running backs for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Don’t try. Just don’t.
Chad Pennington vs. Patriots: Lacking their star corner, the Patriots still make it tough to throw on them. It won’t matter if Pennington has a My Size Barbie arm. Putting the ball through the air is just going to be hard.
All Raiders besides Darren McFadden vs. Bills: Buffalo will attack JaMarcus Russell from all sides. This game should show everyone that Buffalo is worth carrying on your roster as a starting defense, and it doesn’t get bad for the rest of the season.
Derek Anderson, Jamal Lewis vs. Ravens: One more week of pain.
Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco, T.J. Houshmandzadeh vs. Giants: The New York RB wrecking crew controls the clock in this one and will require that the Bengals put something in the air to win, but Palmer just doesn’t have it right now. The Bengals passing game is bench-worthy until I see a spark.
Green Bay Packers D/ST vs. Cowboys: It’s just not a good idea to play your defense against the Cowboys this season.
I’ll take a few shots in the dark this week, and we’ll see how that works out for me.
Michael Pittman vs. Saints: When the Broncos get close, look for Pittman to punch them into the end zone all day. Don’t get too confident. The Saints might let Royal and Marshall finish every catch at the goal post, but Pittman could get you a score or two in this one if you are hurting at RB.
Jerious Norwood vs. Chiefs: If Turner is slowed, Norwood could have a big day. McFadden used his speed to torch the Chiefs last week, and Norwood has some speed of his own.
Post any sit/start questions in the comments for help setting your roster this week. I have to get back to practicing my route running with Matt Hasselbeck.
Well, that just sucks. Thanks, Week 1. Today being Patriot Day just seems to be an even more depressing reminder of the losses in real life and our slightly much less important fantasy football losses.
Screen capture from ESPN.com of Patriot fan on Brady injury
If you were one of the lucky fantasy footballers who lost Tom Brady this past weekend, I assume I just caught you wallowing in your own self-pity, eating a cheeseburger off the floor between fits of crying, alcoholism and throwing Cheetos…
Don’t get up. I’ll squat down to your level.
You probably don’t even feel like waking up anymore. You thought you had this incredible season of fantasy football coming together — Tom Brady leading an UNSTOPPABLE fantasy force — but it’s all come crashing down. We should have known better when Bernard Pollard started dating Tonya Harding.
This Matt Cassel kid doesn’t exactly have the resume to jump right into replacing your first round fantasy draft pick, and you might have even missed out on him in your waiver wire this week. Have you looked at the waiver wire besides Cassel? Neckbeard (A.K.A Kyle Orton) and Damon Huard don’t exactly inspire confidence.
If you’re wire was full of guys like Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner, Jon Kitna or even Trent Edwards, you’re lucky and have earned the hatred of us all. Pick up a couple of them or pair one with a capable backup, and you’re not out of the hunt just yet.
For the rest of us, we may need to take a more desperate path. Even if you do snag Cassel off the wire, he’s no guarantee to make your fantasy season. I don’t care if he is throwing to Randy Moss.
The Free Agent Quarterbacks
Looking through the rest of this season’s matchups, I’ve identified a few QBs that are probably floating around as free agents that you can platoon — yes, platoon — to save your season.
By checking the waiver wires in my deepest leagues, I am guessing your options look something like this list: Matt Cassel, Chad Pennington, Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Ryan, Damon Huard (filling in temporarily for Brodie Croyle), Kerry Collins (filling in temporarily for Vince Young), Joe Flacco, J.T. O’Sullivan, JaMarcus Russell and…yes, I’m going to list Kyle Orton. You may be left to rely on Neckbeard.
The highest upside player is, of course, J.T. O’Sullivan. He COULD be the next Mike Martz QB — high risk, high reward — or he could remain a miserable fantasy failure just like Week 1. As a sign of hope, he did complete more than 70 percent of his passes, even if they were only to the tight ends and Frank Gore.
Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and JaMarcus Russell are all new blood at the QB position. They won’t have much flare for the spectacular, but they won’t bomb either. All there QBs value is dependent upon them gaining confidence and becoming a larger part of the game plans.
Damon Huard and Kerry Collins are both guys that can be counted on in a pinch, but they have timers hanging over their heads. Once their respective starters return, they go back to the bench, and you go back to the waiver wire to grab Brodie Croyle (Yikes!) or Vince Young, who might find his happy place while he is sitting the next few weeks.
Chad Pennington might have one of the lowest ceilings of this whole group, but he showed that he can put up fantasy points in Miami in Week 1. I thought he was worth a few starts last year, and I think he will be worth more this year now that he is fully healed with a coaching staff that respects him.
Kyle Orton and Tarvaris Jackson are not game changers. Each has a run game that will take the ball out of their hands, so unless you get points for handoffs, don’t plan on either one exploding each week. Orton is a game manager who might have weeks where he throws a touchdown or two followed by droughts of no TDs at all. Jackson, if he can improve his decision making, could be a decent sleeper several weeks out of the season with Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian, and his ceiling is obviously higher than Neckbeard’s.
Throw in this Matt Cassel kid, who could become a Philip Rivers-ish or Brodie Croyle-ish type of starter, and that’s a pretty good mix of potential — would have use the word talent here, but I am under contract not to use that word when Kyle Orton is involved.
Building Your Platoon
Now that Brady is done, I would assume that most of you have dropped him off your roster and picked up at least one of the QBs listed above (unless you are in a keeper league, which makes this even tougher).
Without Brady, you’ll still need two more spots for QBs. Assuming you have a backup — you drafted a backup for Tom Brady, right? — you’ll only need to drop one more guy from your bench to pickup another QB.
Obviously, don’t let one of your studs go, but if you have a guy that you were just waiting on to be productive, it might be time to give up hope. If you really don’t have anyone you can stand dropping, you might be able to wait this out — these guys aren’t flying onto rosters anytime soon unless they have a huge game. HUGE.
Try to vary your QB selections based upon their matchups. Pick three who work well together for the rest of the season. You’ll want a third QB to fill in the gaps when your first two have bad matchups or incredibly good running matchups.
Matchups to Target
These matchups are loosely based on team defense projections, cornerback ratings and Week 1 performances. Note that if one of these teams like St. Louis (unlikely), Miami, Kansas City, Oakland, Houston or Seattle rebound against the pass attacks, you might want to rethink your strategy going into that week.
Week 2: Flacco vs. Texans, Huard vs. Raiders, Russell vs. Chiefs, Collins vs. Cincinnati, O’Sullivan vs. Seahawks
Obviously, the best matchups in Week 2 are Flacco and Collins. O’Sullivan is a high-risk here, but he could payoff huge.
Week 3: Flacco vs. Browns, Huard vs. Falcons, Collins vs. Texans, Ryan vs. Chiefs, O’Sullivan vs. Detroit, Cassel vs Dolphins
Martz’s revenge game? If O’Sullivan shines, this week would be the week to do it. Huard against ATL corners is promising as is Collins. When the Titans play the Texans, it is usually a good show.
Week 4: Collins vs. Vikings, O’Sullivan vs. Saints
The matchup drought starts here for a few weeks. Flacco or Jackson might be the best options in your platoon to help you weather the storm.
Collins will have to pass against the strong Vikings run defense, so he makes the best pick here. O’Sullivan, if on a roll by now, could also light up the Saints in a high-scoring affair.
Week 5: Orton vs. Lions, Jackson vs. Saints, Cassel vs. 49ers
It’s the Lions. Even Neckbeard should put one up on the Detroit defense. Cassel against the 49ers is a smart play as well.
Week 6: Orton vs. Falcons, Jackson vs. Lions, Pennington vs. Texans
Pennington is my pick for this week, but it’s hard to say who has the better outlook since all three teams could end up just running the ball through these defenses all day.
Week 7: Flacco vs. Dolphins, Collins/Vince Young vs. Chiefs
If Vince Young returns to the starting role, despite his lack of valid WRs, I’d put him as one of the highest potential QBs from here on out. Clearly, 2008 is becoming a make or break year for his career, and sooner or later, the shine he had at Texas is going to prove he is star-worthy in the NFL. (Dear Vince, Don’t you go retiring just to make sausage now that I said that.)
Week 8: Flacco vs. Raiders, O’Sullivan vs. Seahawks, Cassel vs. Rams
O’Sullivan could be heaven-sent by now or out of work. Cassel will probably be able to score at will against the Rams while Flacco might not have the accuracy just yet to expose the Raiders slacking secondary.
Week 9: Flacco vs. Browns, Huard/Croyle vs. Buccaneers, Russell vs. Falcons, Ryan vs. Raiders, Orton vs. Lions, Jackson vs. Texans
By Week 9, we should see what we have in these prospect QBs. One of them might be a worthy starter. I like Russell against the Falcons and Jackson against the Texans.
Week 10: Pennington vs. Seahawks, Ryan vs. Saints
Pennington could be surprising folks with Miami by this point in the season, and Ryan might have found enough of a rapport with his receivers to open up the playbook. They’ll have to against the Saints.
Week 11: Russell vs. Dolphins, Collins/Young vs. Jaguars, O’Sullivan vs. Rams
Russell should slice up the Dolphins if he’s got his long ball locked in by Week 11, but Young and O’Sullivan present explosive options. I know Young faces the Jags, but it’ll probably be a competitive game since both might be struggling for top positions in the AFC. Young will have to make things happen through the air.
Week 12: Ryan vs. Panthers, Orton vs. Rams, Cassel vs. Dolphins
Can Neckbeard unleash his beast on the Rams? (That’s what she said.) Cassel against the Dolphins is my pick here, but Ryan and Orton are potential slam dunks as well.
Week 13: Flacco vs. Bengals, Croyle vs. Raiders, Russell vs. Chiefs, Pennington vs. Rams
Finally, someone gets to play the BENGALS. Croyle is not likely to lace it in there against the Raiders, but Pennington should blow apart the Rams in Week 13. I don’t care if he launches the football with a rubber band.
Week 14: Young vs. Browns, Ryan vs. Saints, Jackson vs. Lions, Cassel vs. Seahawks
Dear Lord. Did you consider what you would do if you make the playoffs with this save? First of all, if you get here, make all checks payable to me and send immediately. Thank you.
Jackson and Cassel look like golden boys, but Ryan and Young could both expose the defenses if they are at the top of their game. I like Young being able to make some moves in this one and get a lot of time on offense from Cleveland turnovers.
Week 15: Young vs. Texans, Orton vs. Saints, O’Sullivan vs. Dolphins, Pennington vs. 49ers, Cassel vs. Raiders
Lights out in Houston when Vince Young returns to town. Pennington and O’Sullivan should both go off, and Orton might HAVE to get called into duty to get something to Devin Hester against the Saints.
Week 16: Croyle vs. Dolphins, Russell vs. Texans, Ryan vs. Vikings, Jackson vs. Falcons, O’Sullivan vs. Rams, Pennington vs. Chiefs
Huge amount of nice matchups, and it could matter to you considering this might be your championship game. The Vikings might be fighting for a Wild Card, but Ryan could still light them up in the secondary. Jackson could do the same to the two high school corners on the Falcons. If Mike Martz makes a man out of O’Sullivan, might he destroy the Rams and bring you a trophy?
Week 17 (Heaven Forbid): Croyle vs. Bengals, Ryan vs. Rams, Orton vs. Texans, Pennington vs. Jets (Rematch!)
If your commish schedules your championship week in Week 17, slap him/her. Open fist. Just slap ‘em.
At least you have a few decent matchups with Ryan against the Rams and Pennington against the Jets. Pennington will still want to show the Jets what they gave away, and I am sure he wouldn’t mind knocking the Jets out of the playoffs and/or taking their morale down a notch right before they go into the playoffs.
Now that you feel better…
How about a video that RotoHog just sent me? (Note: It’s graphic for Tom Brady fans. Look away and earmuffs!)
Yeah, that’ll pretty much bring you back down to previous levels of depression. Bummer, but hey, I have to stop you from getting too giddy before you start getting excited at the thought of an Eli Manning injury that would allow you to start David Carr.
Why did you take Brady off the injury report Belichick? Why Belichick? WHY?!?!?
Fantasy Football Fools is a fantasy football blog that doesn't take itself too seriously. Sure, we give you fantasy football strategy tips and advice, but we also make sure to include the jokes and fantasy football culture that makes it all worth playing.
