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Divisional Playoffs, Part 1: Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

January 10th, 2009

Today’s matchups treat us to a battle of two defenses and a battle of two different styles of offense.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans

This game is all about the defense. I wouldn’t want to bet on many of the offensive stars being a factor, but there are a few players who should have an impact. Though the Titans have faded down the stretch, they’ll come into this game healthy enough to compete and make Joe Flacco show his rookie colors.

The running backs should be grinding yardage in this game, which will likely come down to time of possession. I think the Titans have enough in the tank and the more powerful rushing attack to take it. Feel free to start running backs on both sides even though they won’t score a great deal.

Hot Hands: Chris Johnson, LeRon McClain, Titans D/ST, Baltimore D/ST

Bubble Boys: Joe Flacco, Derrick Mason, LenDale White

Cold Shoulders: Willis McGahee, Ray Rice, Kerry Collins, Justin Gage

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

In contrast to this afternoon’s game, tonight’s game pairs two of the more powerful offenses in the playoffs. The Cardinals are going to look to throw the ball even though they showed signs of a running game in the first round. The Panthers, on the other hand, will try to pound the ball and make their running backs take time off the clock.

Unlike the Cardinals, the Panthers have a more balanced attack with the abilities of Steve Smith in the passing game. That balanced attack will trump the Cardinals and end Arizona’s first trip to the playoffs in…well, ever.

If Anquan Boldin sits, there’s a very good chance that the Panthers are able to shut down the Cardinals offense. Since the Panthers will spend more time on offense, the running backs and Steve Smith are safer plays than the Cardinals.

Hot Hands: Larry Fitzgerald, Kurt Warner, DeAngelo Williams

Bubble Boys: Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, Jonathan Stewart, Panthers D/ST

Cold Shoulders: Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower, Arizona D/ST

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Foolish Thoughts on Week 16: How much do you hate DeAngelo Williams?

December 23rd, 2008

Seriously, how much do you hate DeAngelo Williams right now?

NFL 2008: Panthers Beat Broncos 30-10

Many a game was won or lost off the play of DeAngelo Williams Sunday night. While I thought he’d keep rolling as he has been the past several weeks, I didn’t think he’d get more than two touchdowns, and I never dreamed that he would get four touchdowns in a game where strong defenses let running backs go wild.

That’s just crazy talk … or tradition in the fantasy football playoffs.

Once again, I have to lament that I picked the wrong Carolina running back. Last year, I drafted DeAngelo Williams but didn’t spend a pick on DeShaun Foster, and I watched Foster roll slowly in several games while DeAngelo was bottled up for use during only flashy plays.

Surely, despite Foster’s absence in Carolina this season, Jonathan Stewart, drafted as the new power back rookie, would put Williams in the Robin seat of the Batmobile once again.

I followed my draft rankings and got Jonathan Stewart in two leagues only to watch another owner snag DeAngelo Williams a few picks later. Honestly, I only tried to get DeAngelo as well in one, but I waited too long. Thus, I can’t benefit from his production late this season.

I never thought I’d regret having Brian Westbrook instead of DeAngelo Williams…

Given their late season production, it’s no longer crazy to assume Thomas Jones and DeAngelo Williams will break into a top 10 or two next season. I think there’s a strong chance that they do, but it will also depend on their strength of schedule.

I think the Jets run game can produce big days next season with the offensive line they’ve built, but I worry that a full offseason with Brett Favre could lead to an improved passing game and that the aging legs of Jones could also yield even more to Leon Washington.

In Carolina, I think it’s only safe to draft a Carolina running back if you can get both of them. Assuming DeAngelo takes a top spot, the two will likely be drafted as Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall were this season, one in early rounds and one just before mid-rounds.

Stewart’s power and ability when healthy cannot be doubted, and I could easily see Williams and Stewart being the Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew for several years … while Jones-Drew becomes the Clinton Portis of 2007 … and Portis becomes the Shaun Alexander of 2007 …

Wild Card Game: Washington Redskins v Seattle Seahawks

OK, I’ll sit a few before I end up like that Shaun guy.

But look at us, talking about the future when there’s still one week left for some of you unfortunate souls that play a championship in Week 17 — the horror!

In Week 16, we saw the weather come into play in a big way as it always seems to right around playoff time, but Matt Cassel was unaffected. I’m impressed. If Kurt Warner breaks down in the passing game and you don’t, that’s some solid ability.

In Week 17, the Patriots go into another must-win game, and Cassel is a must-win start against the Bills. I think he’ll be able to make it happen.

Peyton Manning came through in a pinch to secure third place for me in my main league. I set the high score of the week in Week 14, the first week of the playoffs, and Week 16, the championship week. It’s a shame that I had to drop the ball in Week 15.

Speaking of which, Brian Westbrook officially joins my “Avoid” list after his performances these past two weeks. A guy that is as integral to an offence as Westbrook is usually a great pick, but injury scares and no-show games in the playoffs are good enough reasons for me to skip him next season.

Rumors that Andy Reid might step down from his position with the Eagles don’t help much either. Surprisingly, this was my first season to own Westbrook, but I’m done — or at least saying I am for now. Sorry, Westy.

In a season where a lot of teams seemed to escape the trend, touchdown vultures reared their ugly head this week for several big playoff games. I’ve always accepted that any coach utilizing a different running back in goal line situations doesn’t play fantasy football.

And what’s the deal with Saturday Night Football? Can the NFL just stop pretending and put football on every night of the week? It’s fine. I am sure you can find a channel to show it.

Just when you get used to watching Thursday Night Football, the NFL throws another wrench in the gears to goof up your Saturday night.

I’ll admit, I was actually glad it was a Saturday so that I could go out to blow off some steam after I watched the Dallas Cowboys get rolled by Baltimore in the final game at Texas Stadium.

The Cowboys have been one of the most unpredictable offenses this year when it comes to fantasy. Terrell Owens, normally a staple of the offense, hasn’t been productive for fantasy owners, and the Roy Williams trade just added  more confusion to the mix.

At this point, the only people I trust are Tony Romo and Jason Witten — and no, it’s not because they have a love affair going on behind T.O.’s back.

Well, that’s enough foolish thoughts on football for this week. Merry Christmas and/or happy holidays, everyone. If you haven’t had the chance yet, I hope you get a championship for Christmas.

Remember that any acts of violence against DeAngelo Williams can and will be used against you when it comes to naughty/nice list sorting.

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Week 14 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

December 6th, 2008

You’re obviously starting your studs at this point. For many of you, it’s the playoffs. For others, it’s the last week before the playoffs (and you should hate that your championship game is in Week 17, where anything goes).

This week, whether you are in the playoffs are about to be, is a critical one. For the sake of consistent production, you’ll want to go with the guys that have been making your team a winner all season. The last thing you want to do is get beaten because you went out on a limb with your latest waiver wire claim.

As such, I’m not going to give you the normal start or sit list Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders. Instead, we’ll talk through some notes and concerns on players that you might be thinking about starting.

QUARTERBACKS

It’s a great week for quarterbacks, but you should be worried about Shaun Hill and Brett Favre. I think the Jets could easily win this game on the ground with Thomas Jones and that phenom run-blocking line. Favre will not have to do much at all, but I’d still start him if he is your top quarterback.

Hill, on the other hand, is a risky start because the Jets could very easily break the 49ers, and while Hill will be throwing all day, he might not have much success. I’d probably still start Hill over Favre.

Matt Cassel, even after his terrible Week 13, is a good start against Seattle. The Seahawks just aren’t good at stopping anything through the air, which is ironic I guess when you consider that they’re hawks. Despite his also dreadful performance, I’d also give Kyle Orton the nod but not over a Tony Romo or Tyler Thigpen. I’d give even Donovan McNabb the slight nod ahead of Kyle Orton simply because I think he’s on a hot streak and should fight hard against the Giants even if he doesn’t find success.

RUNNING BACKS

I’m very afraid of Tim Hightower this week despite the Golden Boy matchup against the Rams. This game could be the Kurt Warner show — and I expect it to be — so I don’t like the chances for Hightower, who’s been losing touches at the goal line to J.J. Arrington.

I also don’t really like DeAngelo Williams. He didn’t blow up against the Bucs last time he played them, and despite the fact that he was on a roll, with a lot of ground to makeup in the NFC South, Tampa Bay should come to play. I doubt many people have Williams as one of their top two backs this season since he was typically drafted around the middle and even below Jonathan Stewart.

Warrick Dunn makes me a little nervous in this one against the Panthers as well, but I’d start him before I started Williams. Don’t get me wrong. Williams is a chance I would take, but I don’t love him this week.

I do love love love Steve Slaton and Matt Forte, and I’m cautious about Marshawn Lynch. He has flashes of brilliance, but I think Lee Evans will be a larger factor in the Bills winning this game than Marshawn.

WIDE RECEIVERS

I would worry about Bernard Berrian because, regardless of the strong matchup, will the Vikings even bother to get him a score when Adrian Peterson can probably get four touchdowns in the first half?

I hate the fact that I traded Eddie Royal in a package for Brandon Marshall. I like Royal’s chances to outperform Baby T.O. In all fairness, Cutler, get back to sending the ball to Marshall and only Marshall.

Speaking of T.O., Terrell Owens could be a game changer this week, or he could be totally taken out of the game by the Steelers’ secondary. You have to start him regardless, but you can sit him if you have a gem of a matchup play. For example, I’d sit T.O. for Eddie Royal.

I’d tag Lee Evans as a must start this week with his history against Miami. Maybe he’ll actually get a score this time around with J.P. Losman going deep.

I love me some Lance Moore, even though I was slow to warm up to him this year while Colston was injured.

Mark Clayton, who seems to have turned in on late, is a daring choice to start if you are in a must-win playoff game. I don’t know how Joe Flacco keeps doing it, but I’d be nervous that Clayton falls off against a Washington secondary that has seen him come up big the past two weeks. Do you dare? I wouldn’t.

TIGHT ENDS

Start your stud, but my not-so-sleepy sleeper for this week would be Steve Heiden. Ken Dorsey could easily make him a stud in a tough matchup against the Titans, and I’m starting Heiden myself.

Good luck in your playoffs this week, and my apologies to anyone with a Week 17 championship. That hurts.

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On the Wire: Week 14 Pickups and Playoff Late Bloomers from Week 13

December 4th, 2008

Now, don’t go quitting the waiver wire on me because you are in the playoffs. You know that fifth wide receiver of yours has terrible matchups from here on out, and it’d be nice to replace him with a guy who has upside.

Even if you don’t need players, now more than ever, it’s important to pick up a guy that might have a nice game in the next week or two to prevent your opponents from using him against you.

That said, there’s not a whole lot to go around this week, but we’ll worth with what we got. Again, no formal Worth Claiming, Ones to Watch or Ignoring format headers for the guys this week.

J.P. Losman, QB Buffalo Bills – Yes, at long last, the Lee Evans ball return has taken the field. Losman was forced to come in for a gimpy Trent Edwards, and it looks like he may get the call to start for several weeks with no timeline set for Edwards’ hamstring injury. If weather permits, he’s a boost to Lee Evans because you know that he likes to throw that deep ball, but he’s a bang-bust option for fantasy. Luckily, he doesn’t face a really scary secondary the rest of the way — Dolphins, Jets, Broncos and Patriots.

Ken Dorsey, QB Cleveland Browns — Maybe you need a backup. Maybe you hate yourself, but there is really no good reason to pick up Dorsey unless you truly, truly have nothing else at quarterback.

Sammy Morris, RB New England Patriots — He’s back on the field and scoring touchdowns, and that means that the law offices of BenJarvus Green-Ellis are closed for now. Raiders in Week 15 anyone?

Tashard Choice, RB Dallas Cowboys – If you own Marion Barber, you should own Choice. He’s probably not worth your time otherwise because his carries will be limited and against tough defenses. I think the Cowboys would be making some more moves at the running back position if they thought Barber might miss a game or two.

Seattle Seahawks v New York Giants

Domenik Hixon, WR New York Giants — Hixon is the new Plaxico Burress, minus the stupidity and the bullet in the leg. He’s a strong replacement, but there’s not a lot to love with his remaining matchups. Best of luck to you, Hixon.

Davone Bess, WR Miami Dolphins — Another replacement, Bess seems to be keeping the receiver position alive for the Dolphins in Greg Camarillo’s absence. With the number of easy games coming down the pipe for Miami, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to make Bess a permanent fixture on your bench. Pennington trusts him, and you might learn to as well.

Steve Heiden, TE Cleveland Browns — Kellen Winslow is sitting this one out. If you need a tight end this weekend, Heiden is actually not a terrible option. Dorsey, who is a terrible option, should at least be able to toss it to the tight end, and the Titans have allowed tight ends to make plays against them this season.

Garrett Hartley, K New Orleans Saints — If you haven’t noticed that the Saints have a new kicker, you probably aren’t interested in changing out your kicker for the playoffs anyway. Hartley has been perfect thus far, eight of eight on field goals in four games. Unless the Saints start scoring touchdowns left and right, Hartley should get plenty of opportunities. In fact, since taking over the kicker position for the Saints, Hartley has had more opportunities than almost all the kickers in the league.

Indianapolis Colts D/ST – Have you seen their schedule? The Bengals, Lions and Jaguars in Weeks 14-16 sounds like championship to me even if the Colts do have problems stopping the run.

You can drop: Deuce McAllister, Jonathan Stewart, Josh Morgan and, if you haven’t heard, Plaxico Burress. You should consider dropping anyone you don’t honestly see yourself considering for a start during the playoffs.

In addition to my recs, you can check out the video below with more details on pickups this week from a guy named Hatty. His name, roughly translated from the original Latin, means “wears hats.” He blogs and posts his videos at Hatty Waiver Wire Guru. Enjoy.

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Week 12 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

November 23rd, 2008

I don’t even know why I am awake right now at 6 a.m. on Sunday.

Actually, that’s a lie. I’m awake right now because I am infused with truck stop coffee, the kind of coffee that fills you with enough energy to punch a wall with your head … twice.

Needless to say, it’s been an eventful weekend, but more on that later. For now, let’s talk sit/start very quickly before I pass out to sleep.



Philadelphia Eagles v Seattle Seahawks

It looks like a cold week for Brian Westbrook. Banged up and facing Baltimore, I am benching him this week for a matchup play with Jonathan Stewart.

I’d seriously consider all other options to sub in for your Eagles players this week. Coming off a beating by the Giants, the Baltimore defense could look to put a hurting on the Eagles early and often.

I like all the Bears this week, especially Orton and Forte as they find themselves getting back on track against a terrible Rams defense.

If Jamal Lewis is going to have a 100-yard game, this week is probably the one where he’ll do it.

I wouldn’t start a single Lion besides Calvin Johnson, but what else is new?

Lee Evans is a bubble start this week with Trent Edwards playing terrible and scared, but I think he’s worth starting with the chance he might rebound this week after last week’s scoreless effort.

I don’t think Ronnie Brown is going to Wildcat all over the Patriots’ faces this week, but he’s not as bad of a play as many think. If Thomas Jones can get 100+ yards against the Pats, I’ll bet Brown/Ricky Williams have a shot to do it as well.

Eddie Royal is a great play this week as the No. 2 versus Oakland, but I still like Brandon Marshall to make some things happen as well with his size.

Start your Colts from now until the end of the season. The schedule only gets easier, and this week, Peyton Manning faces a quarterback’s best friend, the San Diego Chargers.

And now, I … must … sleep.

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Foolish Thoughts on Week 7: Wade Phillips would make a great Mall Santa

October 21st, 2008

I feel a bit like Mike Nolan this morning. A heart-wrenching, late pass to Eddie Royal caused me to lose by 0.10 points last night. A tenth of a point — seriously brutal.

My fantasy team chose Week 7 to look like the Cowboys — full of talent but not producing.

Speaking of Big D, I can’t tell the difference between the Cowboys and the Bengals anymore since they played each other.

Is there any kind of FTD (Football-ually Transmitted Disease) that could have jumped off Chad Johnson and Carson Palmer and into the Cowboys? I am sure Adam “Pacman” Jones could have contracted it…

Or perhaps Pacman was the carrier all along. He could have passed it on to Vince Young before leaving the Titans despite Vince’s best efforts to stay clean. There’s evidence.



Tennessee Titans v Houston Texans

The Bills are for real, and Kawika Mitchell was an extra in “The Beastmaster.” Believe me.

Sorry if you are Chargers fan, but Philip Rivers just can’t carry his team all season without the usual from a healthy LaDainian Tomlinson or a fully recovered Chris Chambers and Antonio Gates. He might not get either one.

The Bears-Vikings shootout serves as a great example of how unpredictable the NFL can be — especially when you try to predict the outcome of games on a weekly basis. I would have expected that score for the Cowboys-Rams game or Saints-Panthers game but not the Bears-Vikings game.

Of note, Jonathan Stewart had the score this week against a better-than-you-think-no-really Saints run defense. I think he’ll see his best games when DeAngelo Williams is slowed by stout run stoppage. The trend continues.

Ravens crushed that silly ‘Wildcat.’ FINALLY. Miami is going to have to dig deeper with that play.

The Lions are just terrible, but Calvin Johnson will make it up to his fantasy owners by getting one of those long bombs every now and then.

I’m shocked that Tennessee could run on Kansas City. Really, I am.

Okay, okay, I’m not really serious, but I am shocked that the big boy LenDale White was able to make it all the way to the end zone on that long scamper without being run down from behind. He’s not going to miss out on scoring opportunities even if Chris Johnson looks like the better back.

Make sure White’s on a roster as he goes into a fairly juicy piece of schedule.

So Peyton Manning isn’t quite back to normal production, but he’s not as terrible as this score makes it look. The receivers weren’t helping him out in Green Bay. Take away the two pick-six returns for touchdowns, and the final score would have only been 20-14.

Peyton and Eli just need to work on their tackling. That’ll be a great Thanksgiving for the Manning family.

Who called for a Browns resurgence? Yeah, not this week. Maybe the reason they have been sluggish to start the season is that nasty staph outbreak…

WAIT, it just came to me. The FTD the Cowboys caught is a staph infection from playing the Browns in Week 1. It just took a few weeks to flare up.

Did anyone think it was hard to run on Cincinnati?

Just checking.

Seattle and Tampa Bay was one of the lamest performances on Sunday Night Football that I’ve seen in awhile. Seneca Wallace fumbling the snap when they finally had a chance to score was just fate hitting them in the mouth again. Did the Seahawks dump the lavatory over an Indian burial ground on their flight to Buffalo in Week 1?


Denver Broncos v New England Patriots

Matt Cassel should thank Champ Bailey’s hamstring and Andre Hall’s horrible, fumble-fury hands for his successful Monday night. Cutler’s throwing strength was never right again after he slammed his finger into that helmet, and it’s hard to lead a gimpy comeback when every run play is a turnover.

Do you think Andre Hall will see a carry for the Broncos again?

I don’t. Bring on Ryan Torain!

I guess it’s a plus that the Broncos get to go into the bye and work out these kinks. The return of that Patriot-style offense would be nice, Cutler, but make sure it’s the Brady Patriots and not the Cassel Patriots. I know where you keep the insulin.

Beers and cheers to those of you starting Steven Jackson. I hate you…but only because I played against a team led by Steven Jackson and Clinton Portis this week. I guess you might look forward to that Week 15 and Week 16 performance from Jackson if you make it into the playoffs — WHICH I HOPE YOU DON’T.

I didn’t mean that. It’s the foolish anger talking…

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Week 6 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

October 10th, 2008

It’s about time some of the fantasy studs broke out this year. This week has some matchups to watch. If you ‘bought low’ on guys like Ryan Grant and Maurice Jones-Drew, picked up Deuce McAllister or drafted Bernard Berrian for depth, this week should show you what they’re worth.

For those of you who may have missed the first few weeks of the start or sit breakdown here at the Fools, the “Hot Hands” are players you definitely want to start while “Cold Shoulders” are bums that should leave you hanging this week. The “Bubble Boys” classification points out guys that are somewhere in the middle. They may be (and usually are) good starts, but I still have some concerns about them this week. If you feel that they are your best option, go ahead and start them.

As usual, I’ll be answering sit/start questions in the comments up until the game time on Sunday. I should get to questions by Saturday night or Sunday morning — heading to Dallas for the Red River Rivalry (Texas vs. OU) and a wedding. Who gets married on OU weekend?

Hot Hands

Brett Favre, QB Jets vs. Bengals — He won’t throw six touchdowns, but I think it’s safe to say that Favre should take advantage of the Bengals secondary even if the Jets work on establishing the running game in this one.

David Garrard, QB Jaguars vs. Broncos — He’s had two good weeks and demonstrated that the Jags passing game can produce. He’ll have to show it again against the Broncos if they plan on winning this one.

Kyle Orton, QB Chicago vs. Falcons — Orton is getting more and more done in the passing game. I’d give him a start if you don’t have better options. This week, he gets to take on Atlanta after Rodgers just torched them for three TDs last week.

Ryan Grant, RB Packers vs. Seahawks — He’s had a pretty miserable season thus far, but coming into camp late because of a holdout and then getting injured will do that to you. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry last week and is angry he hasn’t broken one long yet this season like he did all last year. This week against the Seahawks would be a great opportunity for him to return to form against and underperforming defense and control the clock for the Packers.

LeRon McClain, RB Ravens vs. Colts — The Colts can’t stop the run, and McGahee can’t stay healthy. McClain CAN take full advantage of that situation. Even if McGahee hits the field again, there should be plenty of running to go around. The Ravens will try to give Peyton Manning as little time on the field as possible.

Clinton Portis, RB Redskins vs. Rams — Not that you would be sitting one of the best backs through the first five weeks, but I felt obligated to list him just so I could say again how terrible the Rams are. The only danger with Portis is that the passing game scores before he can. I think he’ll get his chances.

Ronnie Brown, RB Dolphins vs. Texans — The ‘Wildcat’ has been ruining opposing defenses the last several weeks. The Dolphins will keep using the formation until someone can stop it. I don’t think that the Texans are that someone.

Deuce McAllister, RB Saints vs. Raiders — Reggie Bush had his big game last week, but Deuce is due. While Oakland’s cornerbacks may be slacking, they should be able to cut a few plays off short of the end zone. Deuce is the battering ram that will get those TDs. I like him to see touches this game with a defense soft on the run.

Steve Slaton, RB Texans vs. Dolphins — On the other side of the ball, Slaton should have a good day against Miami. The Dolphins have been surprisingly decent against the run this year, but the Texans should find a way to get the ball in his hands and involve him the passing game so that he still has a good day for fantasy owners. Schaub will want to ease back into the game slowly coming off his illness, and Slaton will be his crutch.

Bernard Berrian, WR Vikings vs. Lions — Berrian had his season highs in catches, yards and touchdowns last week against the Saints and went over 100 yards for the first time this season. He should continue to see plenty of looks against the Lions since Sidney Rice is still out for this one. This week should be the week to start him.

Santana Moss, WR Redskins vs. Rams — Again, the only concern you should have about starting Moss is whether or not Portis will break every other carry for a long touchdown. That’s a good concern to have.

Jerricho Cotchery, WR Jets vs. Bengals — Cotchery should be the stretch man for Favre in this one, and the Bengals won’t be shutting down Cotchery or Coles on passing plays. For the sake of padding stats, Favre’s gotta hit Cotchery for a score. Coles remains a good start as well.

Washington Redskins D/ST vs. Rams — We’re really picking on the Rams here. If you need a bye week fill for defense this week, the Redskins should be a top option facing one of the worst offenses in football. St. Louis shouldn’t put many points up on this unit that has been holding back the Eagles and Cowboys offensive powerhouses the last two weeks.

Bubble Boys

J.T. O’Sullivan, QB 49ers vs. Eagles — We’ve seen O’Sullivan take the hits and still make the plays, but this week, the hits might be too much for him. The Eagles should attack, attack and attack while keeping a lock on Isaac Bruce, O’Sullivan’s hottest target thus far. For O’Sullivan to have a good game, Bryant Johnson and other supporting cast members will have to step up.

Gus Frerotte, QB Vikings vs. Lions — Don’t get me wrong. Frerotte is still worth a start if you need him, and I think he will give Berrian a good day. I only put him on the bubble because you have to worry that Peterson will go off. I don’t think that the Vikings will abandon the run, so I would peg him for a conservatively good day.

Eli Manning, QB Giants vs. Browns — Eli has led one of the most powerful offenses in football this season, but I have some concerns this week. With Plax returning, will there be tension in the passing game? And will the Giants really get a chance to open up the passing game with all their powerful runners? I think Eli is still a solid start, but if you have another stud, you might consider them. Post a comment below if you are having a tough time making the call.

Peyton Manning, QB Colts vs. Ravens — Both Manning brothers are bubble boys this week. While Peyton would normally be a lock as a start after his bye has passed, the Colts still seem like a struggling offense. The offensive line is holding them back severely. I’d still take a chance on Manning to do it all against the Ravens, but don’t be shocked if he posts another low week.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jaguars vs. Broncos — On paper, this matchup looks great, but I’m still apprehensive about starting MJD after the Broncos held Warrick Dunn and Earnest Graham relatively in check. I’d still start him in this one, but don’t demand a huge performance. The Jags may have to abandon the run to keep pace if Cutler and the Broncos explode.

Cold Shoulders

Derek Anderson, QB Browns vs. Giants — Anderson practiced being comfortable on his back this week because he’ll be taking a lot of hits here against the Giants. They’ll come at him all day long. I don’t think it’ll be pretty.

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, RB Panthers vs. Buccaneers — Riding the hot hand with Williams this week? Don’t. The Bucs have a stout defense against the run, and they should keep the score low just like their game with the Broncos last week. While I am sure one team will have success running the ball, I can’t say which will win the day. I think you should be able to find a more definite start at RB. If not, I’d put Stewart ahead of Williams.

All Detroit Lions vs. Vikings — We’re not really sure who’s starting at quarterback for the Lions since Kitna may be out, and that uncertainty takes the Detroit passing game down several notches as Orlovsky and Drew Stanton still need to settle into the position before they’re worth a fantasy start. The run stoppers on Minnesota won’t let Kevin Smith or Rudi Johnson go anywhere. This week could be a lot of goose eggs for your Lions.

Jamal Lewis, RB Browns vs. Giants — The Browns passing game isn’t doing enough this season to take pressure off of Lewis, and the Giants are going to go after Anderson all day. I don’t think Lewis gets many opportunities, and I don’t see him doing much with the ones he does get.

Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR Bengals vs. Jets — With Carson Palmer sitting this weekend, you really are taking a big chance starting either of these guys. While it might be a shootout, Fitzpatrick is more likely to turn the ball over than score when he goes long.

Martin Gramatica, K Saints vs. Raiders — Okay, this one is just a joke. Gramatica is on IR, but his injury is probably more to his pride and reputation than his leg. Looks like I was right in thinking he would be gone by Friday.

Not Starting Due to Injury

Note that the latest reports have Brian Westbrook, Carson Palmer, Reggie Brown, Deion Branch, Tony Scheffler and Anquan Boldin sitting out this week. Jon Kitna, Brian Griese, Matt Hasselbeck and Kellen Winslow might also miss. Keep your eye on injury reports Sunday morning.

Sleepers

Zach Miller, TE Raiders vs. Saints — Miller ended last season as JaMarcus Russell’s most trustworthy target. He’s looking like he might lead the team in receptions this season, so he’s worth taking a look at this week. Russell could look for him down the field when the Raiders need a score to match the Saints.

Miami Dolphins D/ST vs. Texans — If all of the good defenses are taken, you could do much worse than the Dolphins. They’ve held up against the Chargers and Patriots. The Texans should have Schaub back under center, but that shouldn’t keep Miami from getting some sacks and turnovers to keep the score low in this one.

Having trouble setting your roster this week? Post your questions down below if you would like the Fools to help you out.

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Foolish Thoughts on Week 5: And another three bite the dust?

October 7th, 2008

These sudden, mysterious and largely unreported injuries have got to stop. Last week, Carson Palmer was a late scratch. This week, the victim was Matt Schaub, who was hit by a virus the night before the game.

I normally set lineups Saturday night and then let them run, but this sudden injury plague makes me want to start checking again five minutes before game time on Sunday…and then at four minutes, two minutes and one minute until kickoff.

Thanks to the virus, Matt Schaub turned over the reigns to Sage Rosenfels. He looked like he was the hero of the Texan-kind…until he decided to go airborne. When, as a quarterback (and a big one at that), do you EVER think to go airborne to make a play? It wasn’t even a necessary hurdle attempt.

Stay on the ground and slide, Sage. The air will only hurt you. You are NOT Reggie Bush.

Rosenfels ended the day with 246 yards and a TD but gave Texans fans two fumbles and an interception in the fourth quarter and more than enough reasons for Texans fans to stop whimpering that they would rather see Sage starting instead of Schaub. The not-so-wise Sage gave the game away in the fourth quarter in the home opener. That doesn’t win you hearts.

We saw three more QBs go down in the midst of games this week. Matt Hasselbeck (knee), Trent Edwards (concussion) and Brian Griese (shoulder) all got taken out of Sunday’s games, but they managed better than Damon Huard.

Huard owners WISH he had been taken out sooner to make the hurting stop. Daunte Culpepper was a better start than Huard this week.



Kansas City Chiefs v New England Patriots

Who thought there would ever be a week where J.P. Losman, Seneca Wallace, Jeff Garcia and Tyler Thigpen would all have to take over an offense? My hand is not raised.

Kyle Orton scored more fantasy points than Tony Romo and Jay Cutler this week. In fact, he tied Aaron Rodgers and Big Ben for the best QB performance of the week. I am not saying that again.

He was playing Detroit, but do you realize that he’s scored more points than Tony Romo and Jay Cutler over the last three weeks? I think I’m going to be sick.

When did the Packers get so easy to run on? Injuries and poor run stopping are making this unit very droppable.

Chargers couldn’t handle the single-wing, ‘Wildcat’ formation either. I guess the Dolphins have found something special, and Ronnie Brown is a big part of that. Pennington is like a David Garrard circa last year. He is not going to win your game, but he’s probably good for 12 points from time to time.

The Giants looked impressive against Seattle, but they’re also coming off a bye. No, they don’t need Plax to be successful. Domenik Hixon was a sufficient replacement with big play ability. Who took me up on that sleeper pick?

My thoughts on Jerheme Urban weren’t nearly as spot on, but Breaston didn’t impress either. In a blowout, Larry Fitzgerald was the man. That Tim Hightower kid is worth putting on a roster. You are almost a lock for six or more points with guys like that — vultures.

I think the Arizona defense was angry about getting embarrassed last week, and they took it out on Trent Edwards early. If Edwards is out for any length of time, it shouldn’t take anything away from Lee Evans. We know from Losman’s time under center that he likes to push the long ball to Evans, and he did. Losman may be a little sloppy at times, but there are far worse backup QBs in the NFL (see: Brad Johnson).

Washington just keeps shocking the NFC powerhouses. They were supposed to be the bottom of the barrel in the NFC East, not defeat the Cowboys and Eagles in back-to-back games. I don’t see them doing it twice. For once, Santana Moss was shut down by a defense this year, but Portis went off instead. That’ll take the Eagles down a few notches on run defense.

The Chiefs are miserable. Larry Johnson’s only going to be successful behind this line when the run defense is terrible. Maybe the ‘Wildcat’ formation should come to K.C.? I don’t think that will help — even though getting the ball out of Thigpen’s hands would be an improvement.

Watch out for Jamaal Charles. He might be the next Chris Perry. Oh, and the next Chris Perry might be Cedric Benson.

Kerry Collins made the best case to bring back Vince Young Sunday, and then he (sort of) made a case to keep his job there on the final drive against the Ravens. If Collins is going to throw just as many INTs and not play smart football, I don’t see why Vince Young doesn’t jump back in for the Titans. If they wanted to move away from VY as QB, they would have kept Chris Simms on the roster — unless spleens are really that important to functioning as an NFL quarterback.

Sitting a healthy Vince Young behind Kerry Collins will NOT improve his passer rating. I’ve seen experiments.

Marty Booker and Reggie Wayne are competing in a best hands competition. Next week, they are going to catch a ball with one finger. The “buy low” on Peyton Manning has already passed, but if you can get it, get it. I just have a feeling.

Without Griese, the Bucs look like the same boring team that got stomped in the playoffs last year. If the Broncos could stop the run, the score might have been even lower.

Oh, and Earnest Graham owners, this RB split looks like a full committee approach, and Dunn got the extra carry (11 of 21 total carries by the Bucs) on Sunday. He also had the better yardage per carry. Be afraid. Dunn is not done! (Had to say it. Under contract. Now, go buy the bumper sticker.)

That Matt Prater can really kick, can’t he? The rest of the Broncos kept it relatively quiet so as not to anger the Bucs’ big-pass-hunting defense.

The Bengals at Dallas was like a game of failures. I am not even sure if the Cowboys should have won. If not for a right place, right time grab by Crayton, they might not have. Romo will get the passing game together soon. It’s not like he’s having bad days in the meantime, but removing the interceptions and fumbles from his scoring would be nice.

By the way, I think it’s safe to say that Miles Austin has passed up Patrick Crayton. The missed TD pass to Austin was very symbolic if you want to think deeply about it. (Don’t hurt yourself; I’ll handle it.) Austin outproduced Crayton in Week 3 and Week 4, and the only pass Crayton caught this week was intended for Austin.

That Felix Jones can really run, can’t he? See, Cowboys? See how you use him?

Something tells me that Chris Perry loses his job to Cedric Benson in a few weeks. Perry can’t hold onto the ball or get it done when the Bengals passing game is suffering. Benson already looks like a better back, and he’s only been there one week.

Well, look at that. The Patriots figured out a way for Cassel to get the ball to Moss during the bye week. I’m going to guess DNA injection from Tom Brady in some dark laboratory while Bill Belichick laughed maniacally and rewound tape. Totally how it went down.

I’m still glad I don’t own any Patriot RBs. That’s like trying to guess which clown is going to pop out of the car first. Sammy Morris seems to be the only one with guaranteed touches, but now Faulk looks like he is going to be on the field more often with Matt Cassel. Faulk is the better blocker (see: Tom Brady’s knee).

J.T. O’Sullivan is going to get this 49ers passing game together, and when he does, Martz might just make a respectable fantasy quarterback out of him rather than just a matchups starter.

I would have appreciated a small note from Isaac Bruce before I started to move him in my fantasy leagues. That goose egg in Week 1 made me believe he was done, and now he has to become the No. 1 in San Fran. I wouldn’t have dropped you if I would have known that, Brucey.

Let’s see if Bryant Johnson pushes him for the big plays when he is fully healthy again. I still believe Johnson wants to blow us away and show us he would have been a starter anywhere but Arizona.

I have a short list of sleeper picks that haven’t woken up just yet. No. 1 on that list is Mike Walker. He was supposed to be a big target for Garrard this year, but the passing game has stalled because of the offensive line problems. Don’t be distracted by Jerry Porter. Keep your eye on this guy. If you’re in a league with me, EARMUFFS.

Hines Ward > Santonio Holmes. Ward is always around to make the smart play. Maybe even Nate Washington > Santonio Holmes, but Washington is still a little fluky.



Minnesota Vikings v Dallas Cowboys

The Vikings deserve to be 1-4, but by winning, they may have saved Childress’s job for a little bit longer.

You want to know why you shouldn’t have drafted Adrian Peterson No. 1 overall? Or even No. 2 overall? With a team like the Vikings, even the Saints defense can focus on the run and let Gus Frerotte beat them. It’ll be a lot of feast or famine for A.P. owners this season.

Gramatica should be replaced by Friday. I don’t care if he’s injured. He shouldn’t be starting for the Saints right now, and that is the bottom line. Reggie Bush was winning this game. Drew Brees was winning this game. Hell, even Devery Henderson was winning this game. Gramatica lost it.

At least the Vikings defense is finally looking like they want it.

Rough week for QBs, but many of the dinged up studs will be back under center by Sunday. Fingers crossed, of course.

Cheers and beers for anyone who started DeAngelo Williams and Kyle Orton, especially if you had them both. I would hope you won your Week 5 matchup. Just make sure you entertain all offers for DeAngelo now.

I’m not the first to propose this name, but if Jonathan Stewart is going to be “The Daily Show,” should we call DeAngelo Williams “The Colbert Report?”

Opinions are much appreciated in the comments. I plan to write the official Fantasy Football Nickname Registry once I have collected some feedback.

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Dude… DeAngelo Williams

October 6th, 2008

The running back we all doubted in Carolina stepped up big against the Chiefs. No, it’s not the biggest accomplishment in life to run over the Chiefs defense, but Williams did it in style AND takes home the Dude… award this week because of it — mostly because we doubted him. Unfortunately for all the Stewart owners out there (including me), Williams didn’t share the TD wealth and got several carries close to the goal line.

Williams ended the day with 123 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving and three touchdowns. That’s Ronnie Brown-esque, but, not taking away from his Dude… award-worthy week, I wouldn’t expect that kind of output on a regular basis from the “starter” in Carolina. Jonathan Stewart is building momentum to take over that starting job, and nothing is better than a running back with a nickname like “The Daily Show.” Let’s hope Stewart has just as much wit and much more nasty.

Highlight reel of Williams’ performance this week:

“Daily Show” owners shouldn’t get worried just yet. Our day is still coming. For the moment, however, the day belongs to DeAngelo Williams.

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Week 5 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

October 3rd, 2008

I am not sure who won the VP debate last night. Both political parties seem to believe their candidate stepped up to the plate. The NFL is still pretty split in making a decision this election year. I do know that Al Davis likes Sarah Palin — mostly because he believes she’s youthful and has 4.3 speed.

Herm Edwards, on the other hand, really couldn’t make up his mind. He wants to like someone like Palin, who reminds him of a Brodie Croyle or even a Tyler Thigpen, but that’s just to keep up the front that the team is rebuilding. Voting for someone like Joe Biden, an experienced candidate best compared to Damon Huard, might give the impression that the American people can expect to be won back right now by a government that could do a few good things. That’s scary for Herm to think about.

The jury is still out for Bill Belichick. He just taped the whole thing to watch later, and rumor has it that the tapes came from practice runs that the candidates had on stage before the real debate started. That dude is weird.

This week, you are probably looking for a few spot starters to help you over the bye week hump. If your backup isn’t performing at a high level, you might want to take a chance on some of the guys that I point out here. Bubble guys become more worthwhile of consideration on a week like this week. Don’t expect them to put up the same numbers as your studs do each week, but you’ll be pleasantly surprised if they do.

As always, leave a question in the comments if you are struggling with who should start in Week 5.

Hot Hands

Kyle Orton, QB Bears vs. Lions
I know. I am insane, but the Detroit Lions are not hard to throw against. In fact, they encourage you to throw because if you aren’t passing, your running back is embarrassing them by blasting through the giant holes their defensive line can’t close. My guess is that the Bears let Orton cut loose a bit here. Matt Forte is still going to have a field day on the Lions defense, but Orton should have a few good plays through the air just to keep the defense honest. Why the hell not? It’s the Lions. Don’t bench Peyton Manning for him, but if you need a QB, this week Orton could be your man.

Chad Pennington, QB Dolphins vs. Chargers
It’s not often that you can recommend a man like Pennington. I like him, but for fantasy purposes, he doesn’t put a lot of numbers up unless he has a really nice matchup. This week, you’re in luck. San Diego is letting every quarterback run wild on them this season. Pennington won’t be shut down because San Diego’s defense will also have to worry about Ronnie Brown going into “Wildcat” mode like he did against the Patriots. We know the Chargers can put points on the board, and this game is going to be on Chad to win.

Brian Griese, QB Buccaneers vs. Broncos
Despite Denver’s well-respected corners, the Broncos like shootouts this year. Their defense obliges by letting the opposing QBs pass for more yardage on them than all but a small number of teams in the NFL. Apparently, Griese is going to throw a great deal more than Jeff Garcia did last season, so look for the Bucs to have a big day through the air — as long as there is something left for them after Graham and Dunn tear apart the Broncos ground game.

Matt Forte, RB Bears vs. Lions
This game might be the hottest start he has all year. Forte’s averages more than 80 yards per game, and the Lions basically promise opposing running backs 200+ yards just for playing. Forte is an absolute MUST START this week.

Earnest Graham, RB Buccaneers vs. Broncos
Denver can’t stop the run or the pass. If Larry Johnson can do something, I believe a coke machine — the drink machine, not Travis Henry or Matt Jones — with a football taped to the top can do it. You know, just like the one in those Reggie Bush commercials. Regardless of how many carries Warrick Dunn takes, Graham will have plenty to feed a hungry fantasy football team.

Jonathan Stewart, RB Panthers vs. Chiefs
“The Daily Show” — my new favorite player nickname, by the way — should run over the Chiefs defense this week. Be wary of benching a stud for Stewart since he still splits time with Williams but a good game here could — fingers crossed — start to move him into the more dominant role in this offense.

Steve Slaton, RB Texans vs. Colts
I’m required by foolish fantasy law to mention every rookie in the NFL if I mention any of them. That’s a fact. You want another one? Indianapolis can’t stop the run without Bob Sanders.

Lance Moore, WR Saints vs. Vikings
Moore is seeing quite a few passes come his way with Shockey and Colston still missing. They’ll need to pass against a tough Vikings run defense this week, so look for Moore to dominate on targets again and make something out of them just like he did last week.

Steve Breaston and Jerheme Urban, WR Cardinals vs. Bills
If Boldin doesn’t play this week, both of these WRs could see looks from Kurt Warner. Buffalo has a tough defense, but their weakness will be at corner this week. With Buffalo’s best corner out of commission, Breaston and Urban should face the Buffalo’s third corner and rookie Leodis McKelvin. Breaston’s a lock to see looks, but it could be Urban that steps up in this game since Breaston will most likely not be taken off the kick return duties. It’s in the air right now, but watch reports coming out of Arizona to see if the coaches leak the game plan.

Amani Toomer, WR Giants vs. Seahawks
Plax is out for this week because of his INSUBORDINATION, a word that must always be typed in uppercase. Toomer should see more looks his way, and the two younger Giants WRs, Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith, will fill in the rest. Toomer is a big red zone threat and a better start than both the young ones.

Bobby Engram, WR Seahawks vs. Giants
He’s back. Hasselbeck will be giving him big hugs all day on Sunday, and he should see plenty of action as long as his shoulder is really good to go. Seattle is likely to fall behind, and Engram is the most trusted receiver they will have on the field to make critical plays.

Santana Moss, WR Redskins vs. Eagles
Don’t be afraid of the Eagles secondary. Did you see what Kyle Orton did to them last week? Yeah, and that was Kyle Orton. Moss will continue to get his points each game. The Redskins have been good about not turning the ball over, but Campbell won’t have to force it to Moss to keep Moss’s fantasy revitalization going strong this season.

Justin Gage, WR Titans vs. Ravens
Since the RBs will be slowed a bit by the Baltimore defense, Collins should be looking for Gage to pick up crucial yards in the air. Gage hasn’t put up a lot of TDs, but he gets consistent yardage as long as Collins is at QB. Expect the usual.
UPDATE: Gage is still struggling with a groin injury this week, and, right now, he is listed as ‘doubtful.’ Unless that changes, I’d suggest you go with a different option this week.

Anthony Fasano, TE Dolphins vs. Chargers
The Chargers have given up a TD to a tight end every game this season. Pennington really likes throwing to his tight ends — probably because his WRs are nothing to write home about. Yup, that pretty much sums up my reasoning.

Bubble Boys

Carson Palmer, QB Bengals vs. Cowboys
Palmer might not even play this week, but if he does, he’ll face and Cowboys secondary that doesn’t punish you. Even with that glorious matchup, he’s a big risk. He could go right back out of this game or just look bad trying to play with an elbow injury limiting him.

Jake Delhomme, QB Panthers vs. Chiefs
He could probably throw if he wanted to throw, but he won’t have to against this horrible run defense. Decent start if you have to plug him in, but he might only put up one TD and yardage unless this one gets heated. If he’s your best option, use him.

Chris Johnson, RB Titans vs. Ravens
Oh no, it’s another tough defense. If you haven’t noticed, Johnson can score against tough run defenses. He’s just TOO fast, and he can get to the outside. Baltimore will try to stop him, but in my mind, he is entering into unsittable status after last week’s showing against Minnesota. Plus, you might as well use him this week. If Baltimore twists as many ankles and breaks as many bones as they did against Pittsburgh, then this game might be the last one of the season for Chris Johnson and LenDale White.

Deuce McAllister, RB Saints vs. Vikings
Wow, I’m sure you’re excited. You just picked up a power running back that *could* be featured in a high-powered offense as long as he stays healthy this season. Unfortunately, he faces Minnesota. The Vikings aren’t a total lock to keep him out of the end zone, but unless some Saints passing plays die one or two yards short, McAllister should have limited fantasy potential. Since he’s TD-dependent, I’d look elsewhere. Surely, there’s a guy on your roster that you drafted who has a better matchup this week. If not, start Deuce but limit your expectations.

Mewelde Moore, RB Steelers vs. Jaguars
Surprisingly, the Jaguars aren’t all that scary to run against this year, but the question is whether or not Moore will be featured as a RB or used sparingly. He’s the fourth in line for carries (or at least, he was before all the injuries last week), and the Steelers may opt to have Big Ben throw more this week rather than risk putting too much of the offense in the hands of a backup guy. If you need a RB, he’s not a bad spot start, but there’s the risk that he doesn’t get the same looks Mendenhall or Willie Parker would.

Bobby Wade, WR Vikings vs. Saints
The Vikings haven’t exactly shredded it through the skies this season, but Wade had 75 yards from seven catches last week while no one was watching. As long as Sidney Rice remains a little banged up, Wade should get the majority of the snaps against the Saints very bad secondary. Scoring is probably too much to ask, but Wade could be a decent spot starter in a WR3 position. Almost anyone involved in the Vikings vs. Saints game is worthy of fantasy consideration.

Cold Shoulders

Aaron Rodgers, QB Packers vs. Falcons
Even if he plays this week, he’s still hurt. I wouldn’t take a chance on him. The Packers game plan will probably involve a heavy dose of Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson to win this one.

Edgerrin James, RB Cardinals vs. Bills
The aging running back busted out a good game last week against the Jets, but the offense will come down a few notches when it’s the Buffalo defense on the other end of the field. James won’t put many two TD games together this year as long as Kurt Warner is under center. You can go ahead and scratch this one off the list.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, RB Jaguars vs. Steelers
Other than TDs, there’s not many ways for running backs to make fantasy points against the Steeler defense. Look elsewhere this week. The Jaguars just don’t have the line right now to push around the Steeler run stoppers.

Randy Moss, WR Patriots vs. 49ers
Sit Moss until further notice…and by further notice, I really mean until Tom Brady is back next season. Matt Cassel has got to prove me wrong, but I don’t see him getting the ball to Moss anytime soon even though, with the 49ers, it’s always a potential shootout.

Sleepers

Domenik Hixon, WR Giants vs. Seahawks
I like Hixon from the massive, three touchdown performance he had this preseason. With Plaxico Burress out for a game, Hixon might be able to fill his shoes or at least share snaps with Steve Smith. Hixon’s got that big play ability and has been under the tutelage of Toomer. The other Steve Smith is still the safe play here, but if you want a deep sleeper, Hixon might be just that.

Dallas Cowboys defense vs. Bengals
If Carson Palmer doesn’t start, I expect the Cowboys to get their first INT of the season. If not, this defense could be high risk, high reward. It’s still the Bengals, and who knows when they will put it together again.

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