Week 8 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders: L.T. is a zombie

At some point, we have to stop framing recommendations to start LaDainian Tomlinson with stats from his past performances. “For his career, L.T. averages 100+ yards and bazillion touchdowns against (fill in the blank).”

No crap. L.T. was a dominant fantasy force up until last season, but how much suck did L.T. average just last year? Or over the whole of his career? I’d say he’s averaging a fair amount of suckage right now, and that doesn’t fit in with the pretty little stat book on him. I’m pretty sure he didn’t average zero touchdowns against the Chiefs going into Week 7, but how many tries did he have only to fail? That, my friends, is not a back I want to start.

L.T. is out of luck and out of gas, and the guy who generated all those “stats” that are being quoted at you is dead and buried. In proper Halloween form, he’s bumbling around like a zombie out there for the Chargers.

Luckily, he gets the Raiders this week, which is fitting since Al Davis is practically a zombie himself.

I always have a hard time finding a Halloween costume. Mostly because I’m gigantic. The little costumes you can buy at the store don’t fit me. I just look like the big kid who stretched out his costume. It’s completely lame.

Two years ago, I was Shredder — yes, the baddie from Ninja Turtles. I modified a child-size gladiator costume with some tin foil and added a purple shirt and brown pants to the mix.

Perfect? No, of course not. It was terrible, but it worked for what I needed. I had four females walking around as the karate turtles, so no problems if I have a blasphemy of a Shredder costume.

But that night, while roaming to the next bar, I suddenly found myself face-to-face with a 12-year-old kid wearing a full bodysuit of purple cloth, accented by dark metal shoulder blades and cuffs.

His ninja skills were far superior. Not to mention, he had a whole platoon of Foot Clan lackeys behind him. He was shorter than all of his foot soldiers, but I have never felt so small…

So, hopefully, I can come up with a costume this year that doesn’t lead me to embarrassment. I can’t roll with Shredder again. Ever. But you can roll with these guys this week.

Hot Hands Start of the Week

Chris Wells, RB, Cardinals vs. Panthers
To continue our trend of going out on a limb with my “start of the week,” even though the Giants’ Steve Smith burned me a little last week, I’m taking Beanie Wells. A strong week against the Giants’ run defense leads Beanie into one of the softest matchups of the year. The Panthers are tenth in points allowed to running backs, and Jake Delhomme should have some sort of McNabb-puke-esque panic attack the second he steps out on the field against the team that made him what he is today, worthless.

Many screen caps will be made of Delhomme’s faces in this one. I can already predict that.

As scary as it is to trust a rookie who scored his first touchdown just last week, Beanie makes a very nice flex start. I might even give him RB2 status in a tough bye week. Looking ahead, that fantasy playoff schedule ain’t too shabby either.

Braylon Edwards, WR, Jets vs. Dolphins
Two rookie cornerbacks are starting? Yes, please! Even dropsies couldn’t ruin that fun, and Edwards handled himself pretty well in his last appearance against Miami. The return of Jerricho Cotchery should liven up this passing game for the Jets, and as long as Sanchez isn’t too busy eating hot dogs, I expect him to get Edwards involved once again. Show ‘em what you showed “friend of LeBron,” Edwards!

Matt Forte, RB, Bears vs. Browns
If you own him, you’re starting him. That’s not a difficult decision. At least this week you can feel a little less self-loathing for drafting him. This is, of course, all dependent on him doing something of value against the Browns terrible run defense, but all the odds are in his favor.

Forte is a guy I really like, even though I was only able to draft him in one of my leagues. In the second half of the season, the weather should turn colder, and I could see Cutler handing it off quite a bit more. A superstar week against the Browns would go a long way in starting Forte’s return to relevance.

Donnie Avery, WR, Rams vs. Lions
If you don’t start him this week, when are you going to start him? Matchups don’t get better than this one unless you’re playing the Titans. Avery is the only Rams receiver of note other than an up-and-coming Danny Amendola. Bulger should, if he has anything left to give, find him in this one for at least one touchdown.

If Avery doesn’t show up here, I think astronauts will be able to hear the click of the “drop this player” button from space.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills vs. Texans
Ryan Fitzpatrick is locked in on Evans, and Evans has come back to life. Against the Texans, he should take advantage of that connection for a touchdown. You can feel safe starting Evans again, but T.O.? That’s still a no fly zone.

Zach Miller, TE, Raiders vs. Chargers
Always start your tight end against the Chargers. It may not work for Sean Ryan, but hey, is he really a tight end or just an extra offensive lineman that sometimes catches a touchdown pass from Matt Cassel?

I hate trusting a Raider, but Miller has been the only man in this offense that JaMarcus Russell can hit consistently. Miller’s not a terrible start this week.

Cold Shoulders Sit of the Week

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers vs. Cardinals
In theory, this week would be a good one for DeAngelo. The Panthers are struggling to find a passing game, and Jake Delhomme is scarred for life after throwing enough picks to play out an NFL draft against Arizona in the playoffs.

You’d think they’d lean on the run, but the Cardinals have excelled at stopping the run this year. They’re tops at it. They’ll take DeAngelo and Jonathan Stewart out of this game as quickly as possible, putting this game in Delhomme’s hands.

And before you think about it, he won’t succeed.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans vs. Bills
Before I say anything, the disclaimer on this sit recommendation is that you must have someone with a better matchup. Don’t just pull in any old player to sub for the mighty, mighty A.J. That said, I don’t think the numbers are a lie when it comes to the Bills’ defense.

Andre Johnson already has a bruised lung to worry about. I can only imagine how much that stings, but the Texans (and A.J.) are saying that he will play this weekend against Buffalo. That’s a good sign for his toughness but a bad one for his fantasy owners. An unhealthy A.J. is hard to put your faith in during these critical weeks of the season.

Buffalo’s rookie safety has become an interception machine. I’m sure he’ll be keeping a close eye on Johnson this week. I could see Schaub having a great day, but I think it will come with the assistance of Owen Daniels, not so much Andre Johnson.

If you can sub out your stud wide receiver, do it. If you can’t, cross your fingers and hope for a significant yardage total.

Alex Smith, QB, 49ers vs. Colts
I know you got him off waivers this week, but the Colts murder all quarterbacks not named Peyton Manning. When you practice against Pey Pey, no one can measure up.

I do have a lot of confidence in Smith’s chances down the stretch, and I’m rooting for the guy. Just don’t root for him this week.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks vs. Cowboys
DeMarcus Ware and the Dallas defense regained their pass-rushing prowess last week and took Matt Ryan down a notch. Against the Seahawks’ banged-up failure of an offensive line, we could see Hasselbeck leaving this one early again.

The Dallas secondary has been inconsistent to start the year, so there’s sleeper potential in the Seahawks’ passing game. But I’d put my faith in someone else at quarterback given the choice.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills vs. Texans
The Texans run defense is better than advertised. Just ask Cedric Benson. Even if Lynch finds room to run, the Bills will be forced to pass all day when the Texans get a big lead.

The numbers on the Texans’ run defense will point towards starting Lynch here, and in a better offense than the Bills’, I might agree. But with the Bills’ struggles and Houston’s recent success at stopping the run, I think the numbers are misleading. Assuming you’re not forced into starting Lynch due to bye weeks, go with another option.

Ricky Williams, RB, Dolphins vs. Jets
His look-what-I-can-still-do game against the Saints was impressive, but I don’t think that’s the Ricky you’ll get on a regular basis. The Jets are angry — very, very angry — about the embarrassment they suffered against the Dolphins just a few weeks ago. Rex Ryan will have them revved up and ready to kill. I wouldn’t rely on the No. 2 in the Wildcat to win it for you this week.

Ricky can only do well if a new wrinkle is added to the Wildcat to surprise the Jets. The Dolphins have been pretty good at creating those wrinkles thus far, but the creativity has to run out eventually.

Snoozer Sleeper Pick of the Week

Vince Young, QB, Titans vs. Jaguars
It wasn’t too long ago that Vince Young was a shot in the arm for an 0-5 Titans team. They’re in a tougher situation now, but the player is the same. As long as Vince can carry the locker room baggage, he’ll carry this team into better record — not hard to do with zero wins in the books.

Who wants to try to stop both Chris Johnson and Young in the same backfield? Not I. The Jaguars feel the same way. Don’t bet the farm, but if you had to take a flier on a quarterback this week to fill in for Tom Brady or Big Ben, not a bad choice. I still like sleepers like Marc Bulger a little more, but I’m a Young believer.

Song to Ease Your Pain While You Set Your Lineups

“This is Halloween” from The Nightmare Before Christmas.

Is it just me or does the monster under the stars look like Larry Johnson? He looks like a guy that would average 2 yards per carry. And that clown with the tear-away face is the spitting image of LenDale White circa 2008.

Don’t trust me? Try these on for size: Matthew Berry’s Week 8 Love/Hate (now featuring scary, sexy nurses), Fantasy Football Goat, Fantasy Football Xtreme, The FF Geek Blog and FF Toolbox’s starts and sits.

Shameless Plugging: Keeper no more?

In the most recent Fourth & 1 fantasy football roundtable debate, we tackle what players have lost the most keeper value this season besides LaDainian Tomlinson.

I chose to single out Darren McFadden.

Despite the Oakland Raiders’ miraculous victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, who really beat themselves in this weekend’s upset, McFadden is on one of the worst teams in the NFL.

For an offense whose strength was supposed to be the running game, the Raiders’ rushing attack and, more specifically, McFadden have gotten shut down in almost every contest.

McFadden no longer seems like a challenger to Adrian Peterson’s crown as the best running back in the NFL, and fantasy owners holding onto him through his injury this season should worry about when he will pan out as a keeper.

More than likely, he’ll struggle on a mediocre team until he is traded or reaches free agency.

For more on my McFadden pick and all of the rest of the roundtable’s selections, read the Fourth & 1 Debate, hosted this week by Lester’s Legends.

What do you think of McFadden as a keeper? Share your thoughts in the comments.

Week 6 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders: A Week Without Peyton Manning

I once heard that Peyton Manning can hear us think our own thoughts. In the huddle, he thinks so hard that the middle linebacker opposing him get headaches.

Headaches lead to fear; fear leads to anger; anger leads to hate; and hate leads to Manning’s audible at the line that allows his laser-sighted, rocket arm to put one in the end zone…

But why are we even talking about that guy? He’s out this week. How will we survive? Now on to the Week 6 hotties…

Hot Hands Start of the Week

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots vs. Titans
It’s crazy, I know, to think that any of you wouldn’t be starting Tom Brady, but consider this your reminder that he’s going to get everything right this week — no missing Randy Moss in the end zone, no short throws at Wes Welker’s feet. This week, the Patriots face the Tennessee Titans, currently starting two nice old ladies and a talking garbage can in the secondary.

Brady should destroy all hope that the Titans could win a game before the bye week, and if he doesn’t, well, we can all slam our heads into an NFL-sized helmet…or a wall…that works for some people…

Alas, this is just me wishing that I had ever been cool enough to deserve the nickname “Beer Truck.” What does that even mean? Does that mean you drink a lot of beer or that you are always carrying beer? Like that tailgater that’s always walking around and never finds the party…?

On second thought, that nickname doesn’t sound so cool.

Also hotter than normal this week:

Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals vs. Texans: Great googily-moogily. Benson is booming through defenses like boat parties in Cincinnati. I don’t understand it. They have Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco, but the star of this offense is Benson bus. This guy is bruising, and he currently leads the league in rushing. He should continue to do so after four quarters against the Houston Texans, Australian for terrible.

That’s true by the way. I do speak Australian.

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers vs. Browns: I actually like Rashard Mendenhall, too, but you have to remember that Willie once had “Fast” before his name. That said, Mendy’s earned his touches after playing some great football in Parker’s absence. If the offensive line blocks anywhere close to the way they did for Mendenhall against the Chargers, both Mendenhall and Parker could be hitting some out of the park. Well, just as long as Mendenhall doesn’t have swine flu. The Browns are bad, stains on underpants bad.

Braylon Edwards, WR, Jets vs. Bills: Jerricho Cotchery will be out nursing his hamstring this week, and in his stead, Edwards is going to destroy the Bills just like he destroyed the Dolphins on Monday night. I’m not sure who he stole the hands he’s using from, but Randy Moss might just want to make sure everything’s still attached down there. Maybe all Edwards needed was some of those brighter Broadway lights. Thomas Jones shouldn’t disappoint against the shameful Buffalo run defense either.

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens vs. Vikings: I know the matchup doesn’t look good on paper, but call me a glass half-full. Rice plays a part in the passing game, and he could easily put up yardage and another receiving score against the Vikings if the Ravens get it together. I’m listing him here not to tell you to start him over a stud with a better matchup but simply to declare my undying belief that Ray Rice was the best pick I made in my drafts this year. He’s a good start on any given Sunday.

All your Packers vs. Lions: Sure, easy call, but sometimes people don’t think straight. It drives me mad to read comments from people who refuse to play their matchups in these situations because they have some crazy idea in their head. Okay, okay, I often have crazy ideas in my head, but not as bad as some people. This game is a lay-up, and we may already know who’s catching the Packers first pass when the offense takes the field Sunday.

Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers vs. Bucs: It’s Tampa. What do you want from me? I don’t love the guy, but I could stand starting him in a bind this week.

Cold Shoulders Sit of the Week

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers vs. Broncos
Oh, the mighty have fallen, and they fell so hard it created a vortex of suck on their way down. I don’t really care that the Chargers are coming off of a bye. The Broncos just shut down the Patriots and proved they were worth the praise they’ve been getting, and Josh McDaniels is going to fist pump all over the Chargers.

Mike Nolan’s revitalizing his career by making game plans that just frustrate the holy hell out of other teams, and he should have no trouble making sure the slightly less effective running back of the Chargers stays that way.

It’s also pretty likely that the Broncos run the ball like crazy down through the Chargers defensive line considering how well that worked for the Steelers a few weeks ago. Since losing their nose tackle, San Diego’s been starting a matador in the middle of their line, and he’s waving everyone through. There might even be hope for Larry Johnson to score on this defensive line, so there’s something to look forward to next week. An early lead for the Broncos will force the Chargers to pass and LaDainian all nice and agitated on the sidelines.

Who else should you not touch in any way considered fantasy football-like this week? Well, I’ll tell you…

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs vs. Redskins: The Redskins, while miserable as ever on offense, have been rather stout on defense. They’re in the top 10 among points allowed to a receiver. The only way he earns his paycheck in this one is if he scores a touchdown, which I wouldn’t rule out.

Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks vs. Cardinals: Believe it or not, the Cardinals have been great against the run this year. This game will largely be fought through the air like the best episodes of SWAT Cats. Whatever happened to that show? And more importantly, how and why did cats ever want to fly? They don’t like it. I’ve seen it on the YouTubes.

Eli Manning, QB, Giants vs. Saints: There’s just too much pointing to the Giants wanting to keep this one conservative, which means they’ll limit Manning early. Eli’s a little banged up. The Saints are coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare. The game is in New Orleans. Drew Brees, Drew Brees and, oh, Drew Brees. While I think it could soon get out of hand for the Giants, forcing the lesser Manning into throwing situations, that’s when the Saints defense has been the most deadly. New Orleans is third best in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. I assume you have a better matchup.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans vs. Patriots: It’s a bold move. I know. But unless things break just right for Johnson — wait, Sunday isn’t opposite day, is it? — the Titans will be playing from behind against the Patriots. They haven’t involved Johnson in the passing game when trailing enough for me to sign off on him this week. You’ll probably still have to start him because the opportunity is there, and he is one of the most explosive backs in the league. But doesn’t it make you feel better to know that I’m hating myself for having to start him as well? Let’s hope for a touchdown. It worked with Braylon Edwards.

Chris Cooley, TE, Redskins vs. Chiefs: No one likes a tight end that has to spend all his time blocking.

Sleeper of the Week

Cadillac Williams, RB, Bucs vs. Panthers
Caddy should do some dirty things to the Panthers defense this week if Tampa Bay can keep pace long enough to utilize the running game. Josh Johnson’s keeping this offense effective through a terrible run of losses. Derrick Ward’s injury gave Caddy just enough room to take a lead in the RBBC, and Cadillac should prove his worthy of the starting job by getting a touchdown against the poor Panthers rushing defense.

Heaven forbid that the Bucs actually keep the lead in this one and allow Caddy to run all over the Panthers defense all day.

Song to Ease Your Pain While Setting Your Lineups

You’ll Get Bit… Ya BIT! – DJ Steve Porter Community Remix

I hear Community is a very funny show, but I’ve only gotten a chance to watch it a handful of times. Watching this remix video makes me want to set aside some more time for it…and surprisingly, learn more Spanish words. My high school education is limiting my budding rap potential. Ya BIT!

Want more?

Get more for what ails your lineup at The Fantasy Football Geek Blog, Fantasy Football Goat, FF Toolbox’s starts and sits, Matthew Berry’s love/hate (this week, with facts!), ESPN’s rankings (sometimes a better take than their projections) and Fantasy Joe.

As always, comments are yours. I make no promises about answering comments before Sunday this week because on Saturday, Oklahoma comes to town to take on my Longhorns. Lives could be ruined this weekend. Lives.

Week 4 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders: Rookie of the Year?

Chadam of contributing writer to Fantasy Football Fools fame has this theory about Chad Pennington that he asked me to share. He says they broke Pennington’s shoulder on purpose so that he can have surgery and come back next season like Rookie of the Year with a cannon that can throw 70-yard bombs.

Maybe he’s wrong, but I think it sounds legit. Pennington’s going to lock up that third “Comeback Player of the Year” award in 2010.

This week’s a tough one for many owners out there. Frank Gore is hurt, Willie Parker is looking doubtful, L.T. is still questionable, Wes Welker is a game-time decision, and as if that wasn’t enough, Week 4 is the first bye week. Now that’s rough.

Hopefully, you have the depth to weather this storm. It ain’t going to be pretty.

Hot Hands Start of the Week

Glen Coffee, RB, San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams
Well, you got him off the waiver wire and made all the other members in your league jealous. What did you think you were going to do with him? Coffee gets a breezy little matchup against the St. Louis Rams this week, which should help him get his NFL legs under him.

Coffee hasn’t impressed in limited time, but keep in mind that he took over last week against the Minnesota Vikings defense. They have some very, very fat men that don’t like to let you run the ball past them. The Rams don’t quite have those same fat men.

So pour yourself a cup of Coffee this week – Cha-ching! (I hope this guy starts all season. I could go all day with these coffee jokes.)

Others receiving votes:

  • Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders vs. Houston Texans
    McFadden hasn’t had it easy these first few weeks, but against the Texans, who couldn’t stop a Chihuahua running the football, he should shine. The only way he fails this week is if the Texans really run away with it, forcing the Raiders to throw, but I’m guessing the Raiders will figure out JaMarcus Russell can’t do that very well. Please tell me: Why aren’t the Raiders just running McFadden’s college offense? The Wildhog is the only way to save this team — that or a league change to the UFL.
  • Devin Hester, WR, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
    Did you read that? The Lions. The End.
  • Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
    The Titans have let everyone throw on them this year, and Sims-Walker has become the big-play threat for the Jags. Don’t hesitate to use him this week. The Titans should keep a lid on Maurice Jones-Drew and force David Garrard to the air. And no, that doesn’t mean he will fly, silly. I’m talking passing yards.
  • Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
    If he doesn’t show up this week, I’ll be wearing a permanent sad face for the rest of the season, Jay Cutler style.
  • Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    He’s got at least one more good week left in him before he goes in the toilet again.
  • Julius Jones, RB, Seattle Seahawks vs. Indianapolis Colts
    What’s wrong with me? I actually like the J.J. this week. The only way the Seahawks stay competitive in this one is a heavy dose of the run game, but as we saw in the Dolphins game, Peyton Manning only needs 15 minutes to kill all your dreams.
  • Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
    Without Chad Pennington, the Wildcat could be the offense of choice in Miami. Plus, it’s the Bills, and everyone likes to beat up on them because they’re practically Canadian.
  • Jerricho Cotchery, WR, New York Jets vs. New Orleans Saints
    He’s becoming a legit No. 1 receiver and a phenom fantasy steal for where you drafted him. Keep him in the lineup this week.
  • Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams
    I swear if he fails now after I finally put him in this list…

Cold Shoulders Sit of the Week

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Oh, he’s burning a hole in your bench, isn’t he? You’ve waited so long, and now you’re reunited and it feels so good. You gotta feeling that he’s ready to go off, blowing up like some sort of high voltage explosion and starting a party in the U.S.… Yeah, I’m not going there. Well, I ran out of song titles to plug, but Lynch is not a good option this week.

The Dolphins have been shutting down opposing running backs, and Lynch is likely to be worked in slowly while Fred Jackson continues to take the majority of snaps in this one. Avoid both backs if you can because even half of Buffalo’s earnings on the ground this week shouldn’t be worth starting.

Others receiving votes:

  • Tashard Choice, RB, Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos
    That was one helluva sleeper last week, huh? This week, Marion Barber is fated to make his return, and the Cowboys face the surprisingly stout — at least, thus far — Broncos. I don’t know what to think of the Broncos defense, so I’ll treat them the same way I do anything I don’t understand, stare at it until it goes away or avoid it entirely. Change is evil! Right? No? Well, whatever folks. The point is that you don’t want to take a chance on Choice if you have better options — if you have a better Choice, that is. (Seriously, Coffee and Choice are my favorite running backs this week simply for the annoying joke quality. I’m sure you disagree…)
  • Knownshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys
    Let’s just sit all the running backs in this game just to be fair. Moreno splits the load and faces a Dallas defense that kept Brandon Jacobs under wraps in Week 2 and DeAngelo Williams tied up in Week 3. Wade Phillips will sellout to stop the run, and I expect him to do the same in this one. Moreno is a better start than Choice but expect a less than spectacular performance.
  • Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets
    Just kidding, fools. You can’t sit Colston, but don’t expect a big game. Darrelle Revis should blanket Colston all day. To alter the quote Revis game after the Patriots game, that means Revis will go to the restroom every time Colston does. I hope it’s not to cross swords…
  • Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders
    Same as Colston above. Just substitute Revis for Nnamdi Asomugha.
  • Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Giants
    But why would you even do that to yourself? Seriously.

Sleeper of the Week

Davone Bess, WR, Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Chad Henne targeted him seven times in the second half of Week 3, and he’s the best receiving target Henne has no matter how fast Ted “Stone hands” Ginn is. In Henne’s first game, he may look for Bess often enough to give him some good yardage and you never know, maybe a touchdown. Buffalo does have a hurting secondary right now, and they could be out of this one quickly if the offense struggles and demoralizes the T.O., I mean team. I like Bess’ changes this week if your desperate for some help and willing to lay it down on the rookie quarterback.

For more advice this week, visit the Fantasy Football Librarian’s stacks, see who Matthew Berry is loving and hating, check yourself against the Fanhouse rankings, hit and miss with The Fantasy Football Geek Blog, tend your herd with Fantasy Football Goat, see clearer with The Hazean, take the advice of Fantasy Football Xtreme, comb through the FF Toolbox starts and sits, and check out the “4-4″ from The Right Brain Fantasy Report by @JoeFortenbaugh.

Now I know you have some questions, so leave them in the comments below, and you’ll get an answer by Sunday as long as they are up Saturday night. I can make no promises about Sunday morning, but I sometimes respond to questions on Twitter if you tweet me @jacobsloan. Good luck this week.

Foolish Thoughts: Wherefore art thou Patriots?

These Patriots are clearly not the same team that we expected to see back on the field with Brady’s return.

When New England traded Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raiders, it proved one thing: Bill Belichick will do anything for a first round draft pick. Draft picks are like crack to him. Belichick cannot refuse. If you gave him enough first round picks, he’d probably give away Tom Brady and his own kidney. Maybe two kidneys.

While that 2011 pick looks delicious right now, the Patriots defense does not. Belichick couldn’t have planned on losing Jerod Mayo in the first game of the season, but he certainly knew that the defense would suffer without Mike Vrabel, traded to Kansas City, and Richard Seymour. The new blood on defense hasn’t found their rhythm yet this season, and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez capitalized on their failings in Week 2.

Belichick seems to have an uncanny ability to find spare parts and plug them in as exact clones of the starters he has in place — *cough* Julian Edelman *cough* — but the team as a whole can’t get back to 2007 form.

Tom Brady hasn’t been getting the same zip on his passes, and the Jets’ Darrelle Revis was an absolute stud against Randy Moss, much like he was against Andre Johnson in Week 1. It might be time to sit your stud wide receiver when he faces the Jets.

Should you abandon your Patriots? No, of course not. As long as they aren’t playing the Jets defense, the Patriots offense should still create fantasy stars.

But if you drafted the New England defense with the expectation that they would enjoy a healthy dose of turnovers once Brady forced opponents into a throwing match, you might need to look for a second option.

Speaking of teams playing out of character
In the midst of the Titans-Texans score-a-thon, it was obvious to everyone watching that Chris Johnson is the Titan’s offense. The Titans rode the wave of that undefeated streak last year off the play of their excellent defense, which has lost the ability to generate a pass rush without Albert Haynesworth and exposed some holes in the secondary.

Maybe Kerry Collins is the problem. Maybe his time has come, or maybe I just give Vince Young too much credit. Without a doubt, the Titans are going to need some creativity on offense.

Maybe they can just direct snap to Chris Johnson and call it a day. My fantasy team would be completely cool with that. Completely.

One rib shy of the rack
Matt Hasselbeck took a big hit that knocked him out of his game this week, but it looks like he’ll be okay. It was just a broken rib, and it’s not like he has a history of injury or anything… Oh, wait, this could be a problem.

Discharged
The Chargers defense lost Shawne Merriman again at the end of yesterday’s game against the Ravens to a groin strain, but the bigger blow was the loss of Jamal Williams this week. Without him in the middle of the defense, the Chargers might run into some trouble.

Are things coming together in a perfect storm for Philip Rivers owners? He just might have to carry the Chargers for a few weeks.

The Wildcat comes to special teams
Maybe that’s why they list Sage Rosenfels as the third quarterback, eh? Sneaky Brad Childress…

Have you seen the Green Bay bomber?
Greg Jennings, where did you go? He checked out of the Bengals game Casper-style, but I don’t think Aaron Rodgers will let that happen again if the Packers want to keep that offense on the right track.

Breaking ankles
With this week’s sprained ankle for Brian Westbrook and last week’s sprained ankle for L.T., we could be looking at a season of Darren Sproles and LeSean McCoy pretty soon. Waiver wire accordingly.

At the closing Bell
Mike Bell may have lost his hold on the running back job in New Orleans by spraining his own MCL Sunday. It was too good to be true, but we’ll have to wait until the final diagnosis to see if Bell was just a two-week waiver wire savior.

Pierre Thomas owners certainly wouldn’t mind Bell being removed from the competition.

Even after two weeks of play, we’re still not quite sure who some of these teams are. Are the Jags the worst team in football? Are the 49ers really going to smashmouth their way to an NFC West title? Is Cadillac Williams a member of the undead, come back to own the running game in Tampa Bay? I guess we’ll see.

As always, the comments are yours.

A Fool and His Money – Week 2

Editor’s Note: Yes, we’re a little late with this one, and yes, it’s probably better if you don’t listen to Nick’s picks anyway. We’ll post them now just so we can still hold him accountable for his mistakes.

Texans (+7) over TITANS
I want to choose the Titans in this one, but for some reason this is always a close game so I’m going to take the points. And the Texans can’t be nearly as bad as they appeared in Week 1…I hope.

Cardinals (+3) over JAGUARS
I’m ignoring the curse of West Coast teams that play 1PM ET games. The Cardinals have to realize how much they need this game.

Vikings (-9.5) over LIONS
Did you know that Adrian Peterson’s base salary is only $755,000? Brett Favre gets paid over $12,000,000 in base salary. No wonder A.D. runs like he’s angry.

Panthers (+6) over FALCONS
I love this pick. Everybody’s expectation for Jake Delhomme is so low that he can only overachieve. I believe he’ll play decent against an untested Falcons’ secondary.

REDSKINS (-10) over Rams
I know the Redskin lost last week, but the Rams were shutout by the Seahawks! It’s going to be a very long season in St. Louis.

Seahawks (+1.5) over 49ERS
I said last week that I was picking the Seahawks to win the NFC West, and they didn’t disappoint. Neither did the 49ers in there upset win over the Cardinals, but I’m sticking with my preseason prediction at this point.

Browns (+3) over BRONCOS
Kyle Orton looked awful in his Bronco debut despite the win. Something in my gut says they won’t get a miracle 87-yard touchdown pass to win the game this week.

Giants (+2.5) over COWBOYS
I thought the Giants would be favored in this game. That makes this a pretty easy pick from my standpoint. Brandon Jacobs is going to punish the Cowboys’ defenders in this game.

PACKERS (-9) over Bengals
I think everyone knew the Packers had the talent, but last week’s win will finally let the Packers themselves believe in it. Does that make sense? It does to me.

Steelers (-3) over BEARS
Big Ben looked great against the Titans, and I thought the Bears could not have had a worse debut. This game will be a blowout. You heard it here first.

Patriots (-3.5) over JETS
The Jets looked hungry last week at Houston. The Pats struggled to beat the might Bills. But a certain Mr. Brady found his mojo at the end of the game, and that makes all the difference to me.

Colts (-3) over DOLPHINS
This isn’t so much a vote of confidence in the Colts as it is doubt in the Dolphins. They had an easy schedule last year, but things are different this year.

Raiders (+3) over CHIEFS
I’ll admit it: I was a little impressed by how the Raiders looked against the Chargers on Monday night. It’s a shame they didn’t keep Jeff Garcia around instead of JaMarcus Russell because he will undoubtedly lose several games for them.

BILLS (-5) over Bucs
Trent Edwards looked decent despite not getting T.O. the ball much in Week 1, but that just makes me like him more. The Bucs defense also looked porous gave up three touchdown bombs of more than 60 yards.

CHARGERS (-3) over Ravens
The Ravens covered the spread last week by unconventionally going for the touchdown instead of the field goal while already up one score with 50 seconds left. That made their win look more impressive than it actually was. The Chargers didn’t look impressive, but I’m going to give that up to being rusty…and the fact that I have L.T. on several fantasy teams and need him to have a successful season.

Week 2 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders: And who plays the Lions this week again?

Ah, that was nice, wasn’t it? The start of the NFL season is just like taking a hot shower, and Week 1 is when someone flushes the toilet to give you that frigid, but refreshing, blast of unbearably cold water.

Once you’ve recovered from the shock, it’s lovely, just lovely.

This week, we’re looking for things to regress back to the mean — or for non-nerds, return to normal. I expect a few disappointments to bounce back, but we can’t always get what we want. Sorry, L.T. owners, but I think your ship is sinking.

Hot Hands Start of the Week

Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jackson was only supposed to fill time until Marshawn Lynch returned from his suspension, but he’s exploded out of the gates with a great game last week against New England’s rebuilding defensive line. Against the Tampa Bay defense, Jackson should have another good day.

Jackson’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield makes him a dynamic threat in Buffalo’s no-huddle offense, and he should see his fair share of receptions in addition to all the carries he’ll receive as the focal point of this attack. I’m starting him in every league in which I own him, even if it means I have to sit names like Steven Jackson to do it.

Others receiving votes:

  • Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    The Bills should be firing on all cylinders this week as they take advantage of Ronde Barber and the Tampa Bay defense that just got lit up by Dallas in Week 1.
  • Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
    The 49ers have come together nicely this season, but the Seahawks still have many threats in the passing game. I see John Carlson sneaking lose a few times and allowing Hasselbeck to be a sneaky play this week.
  • Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
    A mouth-watering matchup for a team who just ran all over the Chargers. McFadden could have a big day against the struggling Chiefs, and Michael Bush could join in the fun as well.
  • Justin Gage, WR, Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
    The Jets abused the Houston secondary last week. Maybe it’ll be Gage’s turn this week.
  • Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins vs. St. Louis Rams
    I know, obvious, but some people questioned him after last week. The Rams, much to their disappointment, are not the Giants.
  • Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
    I think shabby deserves one more chance…
  • Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
    What Favre likes, Favre hits. He tackled Harvin after his Week 1 touchdown. Harvin is an interesting flex option this week and is likely to get another score as the Vikings test him out against the Lions.

Cold Shoulders Sit of the Week

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders
It’s a no-Bowe this week. What’s the guy’s name? Nani? Nadia? Not-gonna-let-Bowe-catch-any-passes, that’s what his name is. Nnamdi Asomugha has Bowe locked down. The Bowe Show has never had more than 100 yards or a touchdown against the Raiders.

If Matt Cassel returns this week, Richard Seymour should be giving his former teammate a few hugs throughout the game, and I don’t think the Chiefs offense will get off the ground.

Sure, Bowe might defy the odds. He might get out there and get himself a touchdown, but I don’t like betting on garbage-time scores and yardage. Best to sit Bowe if you have better options. At the very least, downgrade expectations. He rose above his expectations last week, but I doubt he’ll do it again.

Others receiving votes:

  • LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
    Gasp! How could I? The LaDainian Tomlinson? But yes, he’s no good for you this week because the official word is that he is OUT. Not playing. E.T. no phone home. I’m not one to stand behind L.T. as a start, injury or no injury, but this week will be the start of a struggle for owners who need to decide when it’s appropriate to put him out to pasture.
  • Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins
    Avery has to prove that the Rams can do something on offense before I’ll give him a nod, but if he’s one of your best this week, he might surprise.
  • Laveranues Coles, WR, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Green Bay Packers
    The Packers defense and Coles’ Week 1 drops make Coles a must sit. Once he proves he has something left in the tank, feel free to return him to your roster.
  • Jeremy Shockey, TE, New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles
    Against the Eagles, me no likey.
  • Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns
    Not even the Browns are scared of this matchup. While good on paper, Orton shouldn’t be putting up gaudy numbers here, and you’re likely to have a better play.
  • Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
    You probably have to start him, but I’m a tad worried that he won’t get the touchdown required to make this matchup worthwhile. The Steelers should limit him, but Forte isn’t a dud this week.

And against my better judgment…

Sleeper of the Week

Devin Hester, WR, Chicago Bears vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s hard to recommend Hester against one of the most formidable passing defenses in the league and after his quarterback struggled with four interceptions in his first game, but Hester has some sleeper value this week. This game could come down to the final quarter, and I could imagine Hester being tasked with making a play by blowing by the Steelers and getting to the end zone.

The Titans were able to make plays through the air last week against the Steelers, and I think Jay Cutler and Hester are just as talented or more so than Kerry Collins and Justin Gage. If Hester pulls it off, he’s worth starting; if they completely shut him down…well, that’s why he’s a sleeper. Basically, all I’m saying here is that you aren’t completely done for if you find yourself needing to start Hester this week. We’ll see what happens.

For more start/sit recommendations this week…

As always, the comments are yours. If you want to talk about your roster, leave us a question below, and good luck this week.

A Fool and His Money – Week 1

Week 1 is my favorite week to make bets. You get to trust your gut more than any other week of the season, and you feel extremely smug when your predictions come true.

But the first games are also full of questions. Which teams developed chemistry over the offseason? Who will exceed expectations, and who will disappoint? There is money to be made if you can answer these questions correctly.

STEELERS (-6) over Titans
Will the Titans’ defense be the same without Albert Haynesworth? I have no qualms with the Titans’ defense, but I do have problems with trusting Kerry Collins. I predict Vince Young will get his chance for redemption at some point in the season.

Cowboys (-6) over BUCS
Are the Cowboys serious NFC contenders this year? They need to stomp teams like Tampa Bay if they are.

Lions (+13) over SAINTS
Did Kevin Smith really guarantee the playoffs this year? Even Lions’ players and fans can be optimistic this time of year.

FALCONS (-4) over Dolphins
Which one of these teams will take a step back this year? My vote is for the one that loses this game.

TEXANS (-4.5) over Jets
Have you met Mario Williams yet? Rookie QB Mark Sanchez is about to meet him for first time. This is the year the Texans need to finish over .500. People have been talking about this team for a couple of seasons — now show us something!

BENGALS (-4) over Broncos
Does anybody know what to expect from either of these teams? I think the Bengals have more potential so I’m going with them.

PANTHERS (+1.5) over Eagles
Why isn’t anyone talking about the Panthers this year? They had the best fantasy player in the game last year and the best record in the NFC.

Jags (+7) over COLTS
Has any team been more consistent this past decade? No Bob Sanders or Marvin Harrison this season. I like the Colts to win, but seven points is just too much for me.

Vikings (-4) over BROWNS
Is Brady Quinn still a loser? The answer is always yes. This line seems suspiciously low to me, but I’m going to take the bait and pick the Vikings.

Chiefs (+13) over RAVENS
Who can turn down 13 points? Not me — at least not during the first week when we still have a lot to learn about teams.

Redskins (+6.5) over GIANTS
Is this Jason Campbell’s last chance? If he doesn’t step up this year, I think it’s time for the Redskins to start looking in a different direction.

SEAHAWKS (-8.5) over Rams
Was last year a fluke? Everyone knows these teams were decimated by injuries last year, but we need to see who will bounce back quicker. I personally expect an NFC West division title for the Seahawks.

49ers (+6.5) over CARDINALS
Who doesn’t love Mike Singletary? From his future Coors Light commercial quotes to his obsession with hills, I want to believe the 49ers can take a step forward this year.

PACKERS (-3.5) over Bears
Do you believe the hype? A lot of people are very high on both these teams in the NFC. I don’t forget which players and teams wronged me last year, and Jay Cutler is at the top of that list. I bet he hangs out with Brady Quinn in the offseason.

PATRIOTS (-10.5) over Bills
Is Brady back? Normally, I don’t like giving double-digit points in the first week, but I believe the Patriots will try and turn this into a statement game by running up the score.

Chargers (-9) over RAIDERS
Could anything the Raiders do surprise you at this point? Stupid draft picks, violent head coaches, dumb trades. I wish I could bet the over on L.T. getting more than 30 fantasy points this week.

Season Record
Nick: 0-0-0

Guest Post: Three RBBCs to Target in Fantasy Football Drafts

This second guest post comes to us all the way across the pond from Ross Mooring of Never Kick a Gift Horse in the Teeth. This article is a follow up to his first guest post on three RBBCs to avoid in your drafts this season.

It’s now time to look at the running-back-by-committees (RBBC) that fantasy owners should try to monopolize in drafts this year. In most cases, fantasy players should study RBBC situations and draft only the favorites to receive the most carries when the time is right, but some teams possess running backs who collectively are undervalued or that, when drafted together, increase the value and reliability of those players.

Dallas Cowboys

A fit (well, fitter) Marion Barber is a surefire fantasy workhorse. One of the toughest running backs in the game, Barber is not only a threat on the goal line but also receiving out of the backfield. He will get every yard available.

MBIII has shockingly been falling to the beginning of the third round in 12-team drafts, mainly because of the presence of Felix Jones. This fall makes Barber an absolute steal given his propensity to carry the rock into the end zone on a weekly basis.

Jones still represents draft value at the very end of the sixth round, but here’s the clincher: the two of them offer different skill sets, don’t mutually deplete fantasy value very much and will be given enough touches to produce fantasy points.

Barber cannot carry the ball 25 times per game without breaking down while Jones is a threat in space, not in short-yardage situations. Take both with glee, and if you smell an injury, Tashard Choice won’t be waiver-wire fodder for long.

Indianapolis Colts

I’m making a joke, right? The Colts’ backfield, the very same backfield that struggled immensely in 2008, is one of the top three to target in 2009? Yes, it is!

Last year, not only did Joseph Addai have injury problems, but so did three of his offensive linemen and Peyton Manning. All have returned to good health this season. One must remember that Indianapolis is an offensive machine — always has been, always will be. At least while Manning is around…

Between Addai and rookie Donald Brown, we either have one back who will produce RB1 stat lines or two backs who will post RB2 and RB3 numbers. At the very worst, drafting both guarantees you will have insurance against an Addai injury.

You can wait on taking a second back through the first three or even four rounds — yes, Addai has been falling that far (ADP: 5.08!) — and secure the most undervalued RBBC in all of football in the sixth or seventh round.

Just make sure you don’t get arrested for robbery at the end of the year.

San Diego Chargers

The word on the grapevine is that last year was an offensive hiccup for San Diego, not in terms of total output but in the fact that the Chargers succeeded by passing the football and not running it.

With an improved defense (Shawne Merriman single-handedly improves this unit), why not control the game by slowing it down on the ground and letting Philip Rivers air it out with play action when necessary?

With LaDainian Tomlinson hitting the big 3-0 and Darren Sproles not yet a seasoned pro, one could be forgiven for doubting them, but L.T. is a once-in-a-decade back. A single season of wear and tear is not going to bring him down. A pick in the latter half of the first round — anywhere after that is a steal — represents value.

The kicker is that Sproles, who is playing under a franchise tag, is not going until late in the eighth round. If you’re in the right draft slot, take them both and sleep well knowing you have guaranteed yourself some big production at running back.

And one more bonus RBBC…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Editor’s Note: Tampa Bay was originally the third team to target until recent news revealed the 2-2-1 split they plan to use with Earnest Graham, Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams. Take these words as you will now that we know this committee will be very divided...

Tampa Bay is one of a couple of backfields that will be drafted late, mainly because of the lack of standout names but also because the statistical ceiling isn’t quite as sexy as it is elsewhere.

Make no mistake, Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham will consistently notch points for fantasy owners in 2009 — the former with the bulk of the carries and the latter with the bulk of the touchdowns.

The advantage of this RBBC is that Tampa Bay does not have much of a passing game to hang its hat on. Antonio Bryant is unpredictable and potentially unreliable, and the same could be said of Kellen Winslow and his health issues. On top of that, the quarterback situation is confusing, and there seems to be little reason for Raheem Morris to do anything but lean on the run.

Ward has been drafted right at the end of the fourth round (steal), and Graham has seen his number called as late as the end of the tenth round (bigger steal!).

Do you agree or disagree with Ross on these RBBCs to target? As always, the comments are yours. Read more of Ross’ writing at Never Kick a Gift Horse in the Teeth.

First Round Fantasy Football Draft Strategy for 2009

You know that tough feeling when your heart is telling you one thing, but your mind is telling you something completely different?

It’s not love…or the cheese fries. It’s the first round of your fantasy football draft. Easily confused, for sure, but very, very different.

The first round is a Wild West again this season with no locked-in picks in the first round. Many consider Adrian Peterson the consensus first overall pick or the safest option at the top of the draft, but rebels out there will tell you that they prefer Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner or even Tom Brady, if they dare.

Just because A.P. is rated first overall, that doesn’t mean you have to draft him. Depending on the scoring rules, I might not. He’s just not my favorite guy.

In the first round, you should consider drafting a running back, a wide receiver or a quarterback — draft a kicker and someone will smack you — and there’s a strategy to taking each position.

Drafting a Running Back in the First Round

It’s not that it’s out of style to draft a running back. It’s just that it loses its shiny appeal after the first three to four picks are off the board. Once Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner and Matt Forte are off the board, the running back ranks get muddy.

Draft LaDainian Tomlinson? No, thanks. Steven Jackson? Yeah, but no. Kill me now.

The conventional wisdom is that taking a running back in the first round is the safest option and most valuable pick since true No. 1 running backs and running back depth is hard to come by in fantasy drafts, but much like 2008, this season offers up plenty of running back by committees, or RBBCs, which will do just fine for my fantasy purposes.

Even in the third round of a 12-team league, you’re still able to find quite a few running backs worth starting, and that allows you to have some freedom in the first round. Marion Barber (ADP: 3.01), Ryan Grant (ADP: 3.08) and Kevin Smith (ADP: 3.10), all third round picks according to Fantasy Football Calculator’s average draft positions, aren’t terrible options. They were close to first-round consideration if they weren’t drafted in the first round just last year.

If you have one of the top four to five picks in the draft, taking a dominant runner is a valid option — and probably your best strategy — but with backs like Frank Gore (ADP: 2.o2) and Clinton Ports (ADP: 2.11) still available in the second round, don’t force it.

Drafting a Quarterback in the First Round

You may be tempted by Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady, especially if you play in a league that awards six points for passing touchdowns, but don’t draft a quarterback in the first round just because they score the most points each week.

It was a hot trend last season, but the fantasy football community cooled off after Tom Brady made owners pay by going down in the first quarter of his first game. So much pain to think about…let’s move on…

By the nature of starting lineups, most leagues only require 24 quarterbacks to be drafted (12 starters, 12 backups), and only 12 of those players start each week unless you’re in a two-quarterback league.

Only starting one, there’s better value to be had waiting on your gunslinger. The signal callers of the fourth and fifth round aren’t far behind the first-round prospects and could always rise, much like Philip Rivers did last season, up to their level if you’re lucky.

Drew Brees and Tom Brady are great and all, but I’d rather take Tony Romo (ADP: 5.09) or Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 4.01) and have three or four stud running backs or wide receivers on my roster.

Current average draft positions show Brees (ADP: 2.03) and Brady (ADP: 2.03) finding their way back into the second round, and Peyton Manning (ADP: 3.03) might still be around in the third at a great bargain price.

If you find yourself at the tail end of the first round, you can consider drafting a quarterback, but I think the odds are in your favor if you wait on even the elite to fall into the second or third rounds. Some say taking a quarterback in the first three rounds is a waste. My sweet spot for quarterback value is the fourth and fifth rounds this season.

Drafting a Wide Receiver in the First Round

It’s hard to argue with Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry’s assessment that there are only seven top receivers to go around this season.

Some have more upside than others, but seriously, the difference between No. 8 on the list of wide receiver scoring leaders from last year (Antonio Bryant, 157 points) and No. 30 (DeSean Jackson, 110 points) works out to fewer than three points a game. So if everyone in a 10-team league started three receivers every week, outside of the elite, you’re basically getting a three-point advantage starting the best non-elite guy over the guy that’s barely better than waiver-wire fodder.

That stings when you put it that way, but it is so true. Receiver is the wise way to go with your first round pick this year if you miss out on the elite running backs. With questions surrounding a few of the top seven like Roddy White, Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson, there are even less sure-thing elite receivers to go around.

Taking a receiver in the first round may ruin a few of your fantasy diehards’ lunches, but the drop off from the late first-round backs to the second-round or even third-round backs is not as significant as the drop off from first-round receivers to second-round receivers. Not to mention, there is a wealth of talent at running back in the middle and late picks of the draft, especially if you like sleepers.

If I draft top receiver in the first round and more elite wideouts are available in the second, I might even draft another one. You can’t stop me!

The stats are there to show it’s the more valuable pick late in the first round. As long as you draft intelligently, the fifth round running backs should be there to save you.

So go crazy, got it? Now you just have to choose a draft strategy for the rest of your draft.

As always, the comments are yours.