Q&A QB: How to Draft First Overall in Nine-Team Division

Q&A QB is a new head-smacking, hard-hitting, name-taking question and answer series where Jacob assists readers and his Twitter followers in perfecting their draft strategy and winning their league. This post is the first run at it. Let Jacob know what you think in the comments, and if you’d like to be featured in a future Q&A QB post, send Jacob an email or tweet him, whatever that means.

This week in Q&A QB, we’ll take a look at several questions and a walkthrough for how to draft with the first overall pick in a nine-team division.

QUESTION: I have the first pick in the draft, and there are nine teams in a point-only division. What would your team look like?

Basically, you luck out with LaDainian Tomlinson then load up on wide receivers that score a lot and a top quarterback. Once you have found your top players in each category, snag a productive second running back and another receiver.

I suggest using this draft strategy: L.T., WR, WR, RB or QB, RB or QB, WR. Flesh out your roster from there.

After taking L.T. in the first, hopefully you will still be able to pick two out of Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Wayne, Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards for your second and third round back-to-back picks. Lynch is hard to pass up if he is there, but he is more a yardage guy than a touchdown machine. Of course, one can always hope for change.

FOLLOW-UP QUESTION: I’m obviously going L.T. first, and since it’s a nine-team league, my next pick will be the 18th overall pick.

With the second and third round back-to-back picks, I was thinking Braylon Edwards then, if available, one of the top-10 QBs. Hoping Romo will slip and fall that far, but I’m doubting it. So most likely it will be Drew Brees or Matt Hasselbeck. That way, I at least have a top tier in each position and fill in from there.

On my next picks, I’m thinking players like Santonio Holmes will slip to me and maybe someone like LenDale White. What are your suggestions?

I’d target Braylon Edwards if you can get him in the second round. If not, take one of the top-10 WRs if there is still one on the board.

In your third round, I think you could go WR or QB. If Romo is still on the board, definitely take him. Brees is probably worth taking as well.

If a top WR like Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald or T.J. Houshmandzadeh is still on the board, I might pass on Brees and take another WR hoping that an elite QB will fall to you.

I definitely would not use your third round pick on Hasselbeck. I’m avoiding him this season, and I don’t think he’s worth a high pick this year. His WRs are all banged up and the new RBBC could reduce Hasselbeck’s throwing attempts.

In the fourth round, I would look at the QB situation and decide what you want to do. There may still be one or two elite QBs here. This pick is close to where Ben Roethlisberger is being taken, but I think it’s a little high for him.

If you are worried you are going to miss out on all the top QBs, take one here with one of your picks in the fourth and fifth rounds. Otherwise, you could wait longer.

Here’s the strategy with waiting:

You could push your luck and hope that Derek Anderson falls to you in the sixth round. I think he’s got about as good a chance as Big Ben of being a strong QB this year. With just nine teams, you’ll only be about 54 picks in by the sixth round and just across the 60 pick mark when your pick comes up.

In standard scoring, that’s where Anderson, Hasselbeck (if you like him) and Jay Cutler are all going. You could take two of those guys back-to-back in the sixth and seventh rounds to have a strong QB tandem that could trade off every week.

Note: This advice was given before Anderson’s concussion against the Giants, but I still think he can be counted on this season.

It’s really up to you how you want to play the QB, but don’t reach for anyone. Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers and Jake Delhomme also make good backup QBs that you can probably get in the eighth round with just nine teams. Just depends on how many teams are in need of a QB by the time the sixth round rolls around.

Back to the fourth round, if you decide to pass on a QB there or have taken one already in the third round, you should look at Michael Turner, Edgerrin James, Thomas Jones or LenDale White here. All of them are 1) strong workhorse RBs that will get the majority of carries for their team and 2) not going to lose TD touches.

Turner and Edge are both going to get plenty of carries as their young QBs develop. Jones will have the running lanes open because of Favre. White gets so many chances to run the ball that gravity forces him to produce. If any of them are available, spend a pick on them and then another WR like Plaxico Burress, Torry Holt, Roy Williams or maybe Brandon Marshall if you don’t mind his two- or three-game suspension.

I like all of those guys better than Santonio Holmes. I have some concern that Big Ben is not going to throw the TDs as much this year, and when he does throw them, I think Holmes loses catches to Heath Miller and Hines Ward.

From there on out, look for value picks that get a lot of touches and targets in their offense.

Stick with guys that have huge upsides and little risk, and you should improve a lot this year. With a nine-man league, there will probably be plenty of waiver wire grabs to save your team by the middle of the season as well.

Ronnie Brown rehabs his knee, lacks Brady Quinn’s label turning expertise

If you were concerned about Ronnie Brown after reading my article about how much you love him this season, maybe a little video about how he is rehabbing will help you calm down about that pesky knee. Yes? No?

[Video no longer available]

I don’t particularly like to hear that his knee isn’t as strong as it used to be. This trip to the gym was filmed just months ago, but then again, I haven’t been drinking the Kool-Aid that his knee will be ready — both mentally and physically — to start this season.

I don’t want to wait around until Week 9 to see the guy he was last season, and who says he will even be the same guy? He really just emerged last season, and Cam Cameron’s out of town working with another running back now. Miami might even be able to pass this year. The quarterback situation has changed–they have one.

Since you guys hate him, maybe he drops to the end of the fourth, but I think I’d rather have LenDale White.

I do have a sudden urge to go drink some EAS though. Doesn’t Brown know to turn those labels out?

Brady Quinn would have known better.

The Incredible Depth at Running Back in 2008

If you followed along with my recent expert draft, you saw me pass on taking a lot of depth at running back (RB) in the early rounds. Only in the later rounds did I really flesh out the RB position on my team.

Taking Tom Brady in the first round certainly didn’t help me snag several elite RBs, but he fell to me at the 10 spot. Come on, I had to do it.

In the first seven rounds, I only took two RBs, Ryan Grant in the second round and Jonathan Stewart in the fifth round.

I don’t hate the idea of taking two or three RBs at the beginning of your draft this year. In fact, I have in several mocks I’ll be posting about soon. It just so happened that each time my pick came up in the expert league draft, I saw RBs who I expected to be available at my next pick that I was fine waiting to get. I never felt compelled to take a RB because there were always more. There are ALWAYS more this year! Did you hear that?

Unfortunately, since this was an expert league, many of the other drafters also saw these RBs falling and snagged them before it was my chance. So much for catching fatty LenDale White where I wanted him.

As a result of the running back by committee (RBBC) system and the high number of casualties at the RB position, there is a wealth of RBs in 2008 drafts. Once you get beyond the elite and a few more starters, there is quite a large plateau of talent that could at least operate in a rotation for your fantasy team.

I probably would have taken more RBs early in this expert draft, but my average draft position (ADP) stats were all over the place compared to where many of the RBs were taken. Expert leagues operate a little off the norm.

If you aren’t taking elite backs, I found better value in snagging elite and solid wide receivers and elite quarterbacks early in my draft. I’ll toy with my strategy a bit in the mocks I am doing this month, but I have to say, don’t sweat not talking RBs early. There’s plenty to go around this year.

Week 10 Injury Watch: Injuries that might provide some hot waiver wire picks this week

The games aren’t even over, but already, there have been several injuries that could go on to help your team. On the injury side…

Brian Griese, QB Chicago Bears

Brian Griese was knocked out for the Bears this week, so Rex Grossman may or may not be returning top his fluctuating position as one of the most inconsistent and sometimes just plain bad starting QBs in the league.

Adrian Peterson, RB Minnesota Vikings

Two running backs had season-changing events in the Packers/Vikings game. Adrian Peterson–the star (only existent member) of the Vikings offense–went down with an injury to his knee. Watch the injury reports but now might not be a bad time to make sure Chester Taylor isn’t available on you wire if you are in need of a solid running back. Don’t expect fantastic “All Day” AP numbers from Taylor, but if you remember the guy, he was good for a few fantasy points years back.

LenDale White, RB Tennessee Titans

LenDale White took a hit that left him carry-less the rest of the game this Sunday against Jacksonville. Since he didn’t return, the injury may keep him out a few weeks–in which case, it might be a good idea to look at Chris Henry or Chris Brown. Of the two, Chris Brown probably has the greatest value since Henry will soon be leaving the Titans on a substance abuse suspension for some prescription medication he took (not roids).

Reggie Bush, RB New Orleans Saints

Reggie Bush only had an injury scare, but it is worth mentioning. He made it back without even missing the remainder of a quarter, but the injury was to his already-braced knee. If Bush was to miss practice time this week or need more attention to this knee because of the twisting today, keep your eye on the rest of the Saints running back core like Pierre Thomas or Aaron Stecker. Thomas has not been as major a part of the offense as some predicted when Deuce McAllister was knocked out for the season but would still have a shot without Bush.

Damon Huard, QB Kansas City Chiefs

Damon Huard had to leave the game, and, as is the trend in the NFL these days, Brodie Croyle may have stolen Huard’s starting job by playing reasonably well to finish the game. With a better running game–meaning getting Larry Johnson back from injury since Priest Holmes didn’t have much of a prayer this week–Croyle could be an effective starter for the Chiefs. Brodie Croyle had the hype coming into the season but was unable to take the starting job from Huard that many thought he deserved.

Marvin Harrison, WR Indianapolis Colts

Marvin Harrison will remain out this week for the Colts tonight. His injury must be more serious than first expected and/or the Colts are letting him get as much rest as he needs since they still have this guy named Peyton Manning who can throw to anyone. The receiving core is currently a little light with Anthony Gonzalez also sidelined with an injury to his hand he suffered last week, but Aaron Moorehead should fill in again and be a nice target behind Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark for Manning. (Update: Scratch that. Dallas Clark will be out with a concussion this week.)

Marshawn Lynch, RB Buffalo Bills

As the other rookie running back in the NFL that deserves attention, Marshawn Lynch has been one of the more consistent options in the Buffalo offense.  Late in the game this week, he went out with an ankle injury.  It isn’t being portrayed as serious, but if you are in a league with few other options, Anthony Thomas would be the main man to replace Lynch if he missed time.

On another note, some players DO return from injuries within the same season it seems. Steven Jackson came back last week just to go down again, but it looks like the Jax has come back to the Rams to stay.

Steven Jackson, RB St. Louis Rams

On a happier note, Steven Jackson finally returned to rush a TD and throw one as well. The Rams finally got their first victory. He should be fairly solid through the rest of the season, so hopefully, you stayed in the playoff chase if you help on to him this long.