Week 8 Starts and Sits: All of the byes! All of them!

Keepers gets the lead off. Reuben Randle is looking like a weekly flex play with the amount of targets he’s getting in the Giants passing game. Sad face for the rec to sit Greg Olsen after he finally got in the end zone Thursday night.

Is it bad that I’m starting to come back around on Chris Johnson? I think he’s so bad…I think he might be good for soft spot of his upcoming schedule. Help me. Continue reading

Week 5 Starts and Sneaky Pickups

Yes, yes. We never got to pickups this week. But if it’s any consolation, we didn’t have much to work with. Danny Woodhead is stashed in many a league and has been mentioned previously. Rashad Jennings isn’t exactly exciting.

Zac Stacy makes for a sneaky play or stash this week as he could potentially get the majority of carries for the Rams this week. And Justin Blackmon returns from suspension to save the day if Blaine Gabbert can deliver him a pass.

For more pickups or sneaky stashes, read up at Rotoworld, The Hazean, Fantasy Football Librarian, and FantasyPros. Continue reading

Here’s Ronnie: Week 12 Pickups and Jaguars

In Week 12, we find ourselves with a good supply of new faces. Injuries to LeSean McCoy, Willis McGahee, and Rob Gronkowski have not only opened doors but will also be sending several fantasy owners in every league scrounging to the wire. So be prepared for some competition.

I won’t break down the FAAB bids for each player this week, but considering how late in the game we are, you should be spending any amount you need to guarantee you get the players you need. Blowing 80% or 90% of your budget on players at this point isn’t a concern as long as you get the depth or starter that you need to win in the playoffs.

And beyond these names I’ll list below, you should be carefully analyzing your roster this week and dropping any players you no longer need to carry as dead weight. Instead, pick up handcuffs who could be worthwhile starts later this year. If anyone stashed Ronnie Hillman in your league before Week 11, it’s already paid off for them.

Week 12 Pickups

Ronnie Hillman is the obvious get now that the Willis McGahee will miss the rest of the fantasy season. Lance Ball will also get some work, and Knowshon Moreno could even see the field occassionally. But it’s Hillman you want to own. He’s already had goal-line opportunities even before McGahee’s injury and has the talent to reach RB2 status in the right matchup. Anyone who plays the Broncos is going to be more concerned with stopping Peyton Manning than shutting down the Denver run game.

If you have FAAB left…it’s time to spend it. Most, if not all, of it. Even if you don’t need Hillman, he could be fantastic trade bait at your league’s trade deadline, which should be coming up soon.

Hopefully, you’ve been reading every week and took my advice on getting Danario Alexander. He’s still available in many leagues, so if you haven’t yet, make sure you claim him now. Philip Rivers finally has a favorite target, and he’s not at all afraid to throw his way.

LeSean McCoy owners and those who love to watch them cry should go after Bryce Brown. He’s talented enough to reach flex status or dance with RB2 level production if the Eagles ever get their offense together again. Brown should be owned in all leagues heading into this week considering McCoy’s concussion and the possibility they shutdown their feature back since there’s little left for the Eagles to play for this year.

Jalen Parmele replaced Rashad Jennings as Jacksonville’s primary runner in Maurice Jones-Drew‘s absence and did enough to convince the coaching staff he’s a better option moving forward. Just enough.

I doubt he’ll blow us away as a weekly starter, but Parmele will at least be a decent flex this week against the Titans woeful defense, especially if Chad Henne continues to spark the Jaguars’ offense into NFL relevance.

Speaking of Chad Henne’s effect on the Jaguars, Justin Blackmon finally sprang to life with Henne throwing the ball, and he did it in a big way, almost matching Andre Johnson‘s massive performance on Sunday. Blackmon has to be owned in all leagues until we see whether the Jags can duplicate their Week 11 performance.

Chad Henne also deserves consideration if you’re in need of  a quarterback this week. Against the Titans, he’s a decent fill for those of you waiting on Ben Roethlisberger to return or for any other ailing quarterback.

Rashad Jennings is the new MJD in Week 8 Pickups

Maurice Jones-Drew
It’s horrible to watch your stud running back go down with an injury. It’s especially horrible when you don’t own his backup.

But it’s incredibly joyful for all of us surfing the waiver wire.

After DeMarco Murray went down last week and opened the door for two potential running back pickups Felix Jones and Phillip Tanner, Maurice Jones-Drew injured his foot this week.

Rashad Jennings, who steps into his place, should be the hottest pickup of the week.

So let’s drop the chatter and get right to the pickups.

I won’t go into all the guys we’ve recommended in the past, but feel free to browse through the past few weeks of waiver wire recs if you’re looking for more help in shallow leagues.

As always, FAAB percentages are guesstimated next to each player.

Week 8 Pickups

Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars (40% or more)
Maurice Jones-Drew will miss some time with his foot injury, which makes Jennings an automatic RB2 just because of the workload he inherits in Jacksonville. You might have to break the bank to get him, even though MJD’s injury doesn’t look as severe as it could have been. I set the FAAB at 40%, but that’s only because it’s about the minimum I expect Jennings to go for in leagues where he isn’t already owned.

Phillip Tanner, RB, Cowboys (10-15%)
With Felix Jones a little banged up after only one game, Tanner should be added and makes for a desperation start this week if Felix Jones still starts.

Ryan Broyles and Titus Young, WR, Lions (5-10%)
Nate Burleson broke his leg in Week 7 and opened the door for one of these young receivers to emerge. Young should slide into the starting role in Burleson’s place, but Broyles may have a better chance to contribute as a more refined receiver. Both guys are worth taking a chance on if you need a receiver to finish out the season, but I’d put my FAAB dollars down on Young first since he’s slotted to see the field more often.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (5%)
If Stewart’s been dropped, it looks like he’s getting a chance to be the feature back for Carolina at long last. Might as well make sure you benefit if he finds a way to turn around the Panthers’ run game.

Santana Moss, WR, Redskins (<5%)
It looks like Moss is the playmaker RGIII needs while Garcon continues to recover from his mysterious foot injury. But there’s a lot of competition in the Redskins’ wide receiver corps. Moss isn’t worth spending a lot of money or waiver picks on acquiring. So don’t get too excited.

Montario Hardesty, RB, Browns (<5%)
Hardesty could be the lead back if the Browns decide to sit Trent Richardson as he nurses his rib injury. Hardesty should be stashed until we hear how the Browns will handle Richardson this week.

Donald Brown, RB, Colts (<5%)
Probably won’t return until Week 9, but you could stash him this week to guarantee you have him when he gets back on the field.

Jake Locker, QB, Titans (<5%)
Don’t forget that he was promising before his injury. He’s a nice safety QB2 with QB1 upside.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Chiefs (0%)
Hillis returned to practice this week and could resume his role as Jamaal Charles’ hammer and the Chiefs’ touchdown maker. Considering his failures before getting injured, he shouldn’t cost you anything to stash in case he returns from the bye with some value.

Jamaal Charles owners: How to replace your stud running back

If you lost Jamaal Charles on Sunday, you don’t have a lot of options. He was your first round pick, and unless you play in a very small league, it’s unlikely you have someone else of Charles’ caliber on your roster to pick up the slack.

You also aren’t going to find many first-round quality players on the waiver wire. So at this point, you are left with the desperation options.

It’s time to beg, borrow, cheat, or steal.

One note before we start — you don’t have to do these in this order. Begging is for the worst off of the Charles’ owners, but all of us could benefit from “stealing,” even if we didn’t lose Charles. In fact, “stealing” is probably a good place to start for the majority of you. That’s why I put it at the end…

BEG

A trade is the fastest way to fix your roster when you face a catastrophic injury like losing Charles. You won’t ever have as strong a team as you had before, but just like getting burned on a bad investment, you have to take stock of what you have, package your assets, and sell off what you can to improve your net worth (in this case, your team).

Now I’m assuming you’re in dire straits without Charles. You might not have another running back capable of even RB2-quality production. Maybe you were rotating a stream of flex-level running backs in alongside Charles. Maybe the only other stud on your roster was your top-5 quarterback.

If you can field a respectable roster in Week 3 without Charles, hold off and move on to the less drastic strategies below. But if you’re rocking back and forth in the fetal position while screaming “Jamaaaaaal. WHY?!?,” stay with me here…

Hopefully, you drafted some good depth at at least one position. It’s probably safe to assume it’s not running back, so let’s pretend you have a little extra talent at quarterback or wide receiver.

It’s time to start talking to every owner in your league who has a hole at wide receiver or quarterback and a running back worth starting every week. Package what you have and shop it.

Start your negotiations by making a reasonable offer, but if that goes south, beg. Beg like you’re life depended on it. Play the pity card, and maybe someone will grant you a chance at their prize running back.

Target the owners of Chris Johnson, Steven Jackson, Arian Foster, and Shonn Greene, who may be disappointed in what they’ve brought to the box score so far. You don’t have the luxury of being disappointed in them. You just need high-ceiling starters.

Chris Johnson would be the first player I’d target. Foster or Jackson might come at a discount since they are currently injured, and Greene owners might be convinced that he won’t rise to the occasion this season either.

For the right price, I’d take a chance at Greene.

Float your starting-quality backup quarterback out there packaged alongside one of your WR2 or WR1-level wide receivers. If you feel good enough about your QB2, try offering your stud-level starter to the guy that drafted Peyton Manning.

It’s a great time to trade Matthew Stafford to the highest bidder if you smartly drafted a quality alternative in case Stafford didn’t make it a full 16 games. Maybe you’ll miss out on his breakout season, but you could end up with a fantasy stud to replace what you lost in Charles.

BORROW

If trading for a stud or potential stud doesn’t work, it’s time to look at the lesser options and “borrow.”

You’re not actually borrowing in this situation. You’re still trading, but you’re looking at the potential to upgrade this player down the road.

If left with no other options, go ahead and look at trading depth for depth. Maybe you could deal a backup tight end, WR3, or your backup quarterback to give yourself some more depth at running back.

Nabbing someone like Joseph Addai, Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Spiller, or Ryan Grant could still prove valuable. Don’t write anyone off. But don’t take any terrible deals either just to add a running back to your squad. You have to get a decent value for the package you put together. A bad trade would pretty much sink your season.

You might try to sneak a deal for a promising up-and-comer.

Make a play for Ben Tate whose owner may not need his opportunistic play for the next several weeks while Foster heals up as much as you could. Look for James Starks, who is rising in Green Bay. Maybe the rest of your league hasn’t noticed yet. Finally, it pays off to have a guy in your league who lives under a rock!

While getting a running back out of the deal would be preferred, it’s okay to consider a trade that upgrades your other positions. Anything that improves your team will help, and maybe that additional strength at quarterback or wide receiver could be turned into running back depth at a later date.

While you might not start these running backs right away or have no need for the additional depth at another position, these players are good to have. You can hold onto them for now, start them when they have decent matchups, and maybe somewhere down the road, they’ll have a big enough game for you to deal them again.

On that next trade, that’s when you might land a stud to replace Charles.

CHEAT

Okay, I realize most people don’t want to cheat. But some do. And I feel it’s my duty to cover this even if I don’t wholeheartedly endorse it. In fact, I’ll despise you if you pull it off. But hey, we’re in it to win it. So here goes…

This one’s the hard one. You might not have a chance at swindling an owner in your league, and even if you do, you might not get this trade past the rest of the owners in your league. But…rumors and misinformation might be a decent way to get a fantasy starter off another owner.

All it takes is a text, presumed to be a forward from Twitter, with “RT @AdamSchefter” in front, and you could have another owner thinking they need to sell high. (Kidding, of course. Who would do that?)

Haven’t you always wanted to be “that guy?”

You could make a play for Matt Forte by talking up Marion Barber’s upcoming return and his ability to vulture every touchdown from Forte the rest of the way. It is possible, even if it’s not probable. So it’s not a lie, MOM!

Sure, you still have to worry that it comes true, in some part, but Forte’s a decent recovery from losing Charles.

Steven Jackson owners might be willing to believe he’ll never be healthy again this season. He looked slow in the first game of the season, didn’t he? Might as well get a decent value for him rather than deal with his questionable status all season long.

Ryan Mathews certainly isn’t going to get enough touches to be worth anything in San Diego. So what if every analyst out there seems to believe he’s the better back. Tolbert is clearly the guy that’s going to get all the fantasy points, right?

Use rumors and speculation to your advantage, and you just might “negotiate” your way into a nice consolation prize.

But yes, if you pull this off, several people in your league will call you out for it. You’ll be cursed for the rest of the season, and you probably won’t even make it to the championship game due to karma. All wins have their price.

STEAL

There’s not going to be a lot on the waiver wire, but there’s enough. Now that you’ve lost Charles, it’s time to take everything you can and “steal” value for free off the wire.

First, your Kansas City replacements. Unfortunately, they’ll cost the most and probably produce the least.

Thomas Jones + Dexter McCluster + Le’Ron McClain

I covered this in this week’s waiver wire post, but Jones probably assumes the lead back duties here. He’s not exciting; in fact, he’s looked totally finished so far this season. But he’s the guy listed second on the depth chart, and he’s likely to get the goal line looks, at least initially.

Jones is the running back I’d try to pickup first, but don’t break the bank to get him. He’s not worth it, especially with how lackluster the Chiefs offense has been thus far. Thomas Jones is not going to spark anything for them.

Dexter McCluster’s been used as a gadget guy by the Chiefs and has gotten more touches than Jones so far this year up until Charles was injured. With his ability to act as a receiver or running back (not to mention his eligibility as both a WR and RB on some fantasy sites), McCluster may actually see the most productive touches in Charles’ absence. He’ll also come at a lower cost than Jones if you’re having to bid on McCluster in a FAAB.

The dark horse in this is Le’Ron McClain. We’ve seen him take more than his fair share of the work during his time in Baltimore, and now he’s in the mix in Kansas City.

Jones is old, and McCluster is undersized. So the bulk of the workload could easily land in McClain’s lap. Again, he’s not going to blow the doors off anyone, but he could be productive if the Chiefs pick themselves up off the floor.

Assuming you miss out on Jones and McCluster, stash McClain. You never know.

And here’s where the real stealing comes in. If you have the roster space, I’d claim every single decent handcuff back still on waivers that you can. That list includes Deji Karim in Jacksonville, Kendall Hunter in San Francisco, Delone Carter in Indy, and Michael Bush in Oakland.

Bush and Carter have carved a role of sorts on their offenses for now with the potential to do more, especially if there’s an injury. Hunter’s not getting a lot of touches, but he certainly looks like he could do plenty with them after leading the league in rushing during the preseason. And Karim will continue to protect Maurice Jones-Drew’s long-term health by taking a few touches each week until MJD suffers a setback or another injury.

If they’re out there, I’d go get Willis McGahee, who could end up winning John Fox’s favor if Moreno can’t stay healthy, and LaDainian Tomlinson, who still might be the most productive back on the Jets, first.

You’re goal with these backups is to be first in line to benefit when the next devastating injury hits fantasy owners. And in the meantime, you can tell your tale of woe over a campfire to the rest of your league to scare them into trading you for their own handcuff.

It’s not going to make you any friends, but this strategy is an act of desperation.

And if you can’t “steal” your way back into fantasy relevance, well…you better start trolling the waiver wire and maximizing every spot on your roster. You’re going to need every point you can get the rest of the way.

RIP Jamaal’s ACL. Pour some out for your homies’ knees. And fingers crossed this doesn’t happen to any other first-round picks this season.

http://youtu.be/dqHKf5NuVtg

And seriously, what’s going on in KC? Charles is their third ACL tear this season.

Believe it or not: T.O., L.T. not done yet, Arian Foster only needs three quarters, and more Week 4 top scores

Last week’s top scores featured some pretty normal names. I thought this feature might be getting boring…so, of course, this week was full of surprises.

Arian Foster, RB, Texans: 131 rushing yards, 1 TD and 3 catches for 56 yards, 1 TD

Yeah…that guy again. Foster was benched for the entire first quarter for missing one team meeting and being late to another, and he still scored the most fantasy points on Sunday. If you’re a Foster owner, never complain about a loss. You have no excuse.

Terrell Owens, WR, Bengals: 10 catches for 222 yards, 1 TD

Take away the long bomb that T.O. caught just as the corner covering him fell down and these numbers aren’t quite as impressive. T.O. benefits from playing opposite Chad Ochocinco, and Carson Palmer doesn’t seem like he’s ever going to turn back into the top quarterback he used to be.

I’m not saying that T.O. won’t keep producing these kinds of numbers. He is likely to rack up 100+ yards in a few more games this season, but I’m not in love with him long-term. He could just as easily disappear off the radar next week, never to be seen again.

David Garrard, QB, Jaguars: 163 passing yards, 2 passing TDs and 44 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD

Even in the worst of times for the Jaguars, Garrard manages to put up stats against the Colts. This big day may make up for his team’s shortcomings the first three weeks, but don’t be fooled into thinking he’s a solid fantasy quarterback. You never know when he will show up and when he won’t. Garrard is a risky bye week fill right now and that’s it.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Jets: 133 yards, 2 TDs and 3 catches for 22 yards

There was a lot of excitement around L.T.’s numbers this Sunday, but keep in mind that these stats were against the Bills. While he’s holding his own as the No. 1 back in New York right now, I doubt L.T. will be able to sustain this kind of production all season long. He has gotten up there in age and carries, and this game was his first 100+ yarder in two years. If you can sell him high to the Shonn Greene owner, I would.

Shaun Hill, QB, Lions: 331 passing yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs and 53 rushing yards

The Lions got behind big in this one, but they did fight back admirably. Hill’s numbers just show you how nice it is to have Calvin Johnson to catch passes for you. Lucky for Megatron and the Detroit Lions, Stafford should be back soon, and when he returns, these Lions’ quarterback numbers could get even better.

And the usual suspects who also showed up big for their owners this week: Antonio Gates, Peyton Manning, Kyle Orton, Aaron Rodgers, and Maurice Jones-Drew.

By the way, if you saw Kyle Orton in the “usual suspects” just now and found that odd, let me just say that Kyle Orton is for real. He had another 300+ yards against the Titans, who were looking like a fairly stout passing defense this season. Orton is going to have to carry this team, especially with all the injuries in the running game. Look for him to remain a quality QB1 starter.

Don’t sleep on Huggy, 7 more sleepers

In less than 48 hours, real, NFL football returns. Oh, how I have missed you.

I’m sure that you have your fantasy football team in tip-top shape, ready to go for the season, but before you call it the total package, I have some names for your watch list. I’m doing this in place of this week’s “On the Wire” waiver wire feature. These players are names that shouldn’t be left in the free agent pool long this year. So if you’re holding onto a backup tight end or defense as we enter Week 1, consider claiming these guys early.

Kareem Huggins, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

No one puts Kareem Huggins in the corner. Ever since the Bucs cut Derrick Ward, Huggy’s fantasy star has been climbing, but he’s still not drafted in every league.

Cadillac Williams may have a deal with Father Time (or the father of knee injuries, if there is one), but unless he runs with a lot more speed and energy than he did last season, he’s not going to blow many defenses away. Instead, the Bucs may see fit to inject a little Huggy Bear in the offense. Keep him on your radar.

Dexter McCluster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

There’s plenty about this converted running back that intrigues me. Sure, I mentioned him when I made fun of all the Wes Welker comparisons we’ve gotten this offseason, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think he could actually be a Wes Welker. At his small size, he’s probably capable of being a Darren Sproles clone as well.

The Chiefs clearly want to use him in every way possible. He’s practiced in almost every position on the field, and he’s been lined up as their Wildcat quarterback. The Chiefs may not score very many points this season, but McCluster could be on the field quite a bit when they do.

Rashad Jennings, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

He’s not the sexiest pick on the block, but Maurice Jones-Drew’s backup got a lot of attention when it was rumored MJD had gone under the knife this preseason. While he makes a great handcuff for MJD, it remains to be seen how much he’ll really do this season unless MJD goes down.

For now, I’ll keep my expectations low and only suggest you keep him on your watch list unless you’re relying heavily on MJD this year.

James Davis, RB, Cleveland Browns

Forgotten on the Browns roster, Davis had all the hype in the world last season as a rookie. Injury kept him from showing anything to us in 2009, and when the Browns drafted Montario Hardesty, everyone scratched James Davis off their sleeper lists.

Well, that may have been a bit too soon. With Hardesty out for the year, Davis will be the one waiting in the wings behind Jerome Harrison and Peyton Hillis. He had a strong preseason, and even though I feel that Hillis will see the field on a regular basis more than Davis, Davis is the long-term investment with the highest payout.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

I don’t know if you remember how Tom Brady used to throw to his tight end. Ben Watson trailed off in New England in recent years, and a platoon of veterans muddled the stat lines during the Randy Moss and Wes Welker era. But when he has a target on the field, Brady likes to use it.

Gronkowski is that new tight end target.  The rookie has had a great preseason, and if you waited to take a tight end, Gronkowski might just be the upgrade you’re looking for after Week 1.

Isaac Redman, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Say what you will about Rashard Mendenhall’s chances to be a full-time back this season, but I’m worried. Mike Tomlin says Redman will be used in short-yardage, and I believe that.

I was already a bit of a Mendenhall doubter, and this news makes me feel even more uneasy about the young Steelers running back. While Redman’s not exactly a handcuff, I’d strongly consider snagging him on your roster if you’re also carrying Mendenhall just to cover all your bases until this shakes out.

Mike Williams, WR, Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks cut T.J. Houshmandzadeh and promoted Williams to the starting lineup. It seems this big (and I do mean big) wide receiver has finally lost the pounds and become a prospect worth keeping an eye on.

Seattle doesn’t boast the most potent offense in the land, but if Hasselbeck stays healthy, there’s a chance Pete Carroll could turn this former USC wideout into everything he was supposed to be coming out of college.

Deon Butler, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Along those same lines, you could see Butler emerge as a receiving threat this year if Hasselbeck stays upright. We don’t know how much he’ll see the field right now, but he’s a burner and could add an explosive element to this offense down the field. Since no one really knows who he is, you can probably just keep him on a watch list for now.

Now if that’s not enough for you, you’ll find more sleepers to pad your roster in David Sabino’s 11 fantasy sleepers at SI.com. I like his picks, but keep in mind that many of them are long shots — hence, sleepers.

So. Excited. For. Football.

How to Win Your Fantasy Football League on Draft Day – vers. 2010

When it comes to fantasy football draft strategy, I’ve tried almost everything. RB-RB? Of course. Draft a quarterback in the first round? Sure. WR-WR? Most definitely. But all this trial and error has paid off.

After hammering out what I think is my best strategy to date last season in the “cutting out the middle men” fantasy football draft strategy and deciding how to play the first round, I think I’ve finally refined the best way to win your league on draft day this season.

And I’m going to share it with you.

What you need to win

Traditionally, we all took running backs because they were scarce. Not every team had a workhorse running back, and in a 12-team league, we needed to start at least 24 of them.

But now, there are 50+ running backs available since every team in the NFL has a time share. So after the five elite running backs are off the board — Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, and Frank Gore — we don’t have to use a first-round pick on a running back.

Not to say that you don’t need a decent running back. You just don’t have to pay a first-round price for one. It’s always nice to have a promising guy like Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Shonn Greene, Ryan Mathews, Ryan Grant, or Cedric Benson on your roster. But you can make do if you miss out on them.

You’ll notice I didn’t list Steven Jackson or Rashard Mendenhall on that list. I did that on purpose. They are on the cusp of what I would consider the top, reliable running backs, but they scare me more than they excite me this season. And much like the ladies, that’s not going to work for me when it comes to running backs.

Quarterbacks, while valuable, aren’t as scarce as running backs because each team only needs one. I love me some quarterbacks. Don’t get me wrong, but only a select few — Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady — are worth taking in the first three rounds. If you miss out on them, you should wait. (But DON’T miss out on them. More on this later.)

That leaves wide receivers. If you’re following me so far, you understand that wide receivers are the new running backs. Receivers have become more reliable and valuable as the NFL becomes more and more passer-friendly. The top receivers are worth building a team around and can give you an advantage if you know how to draft your running backs late.

Guys like Andre Johnson and Greg Jennings are more consistent than the rest of the pack you’ll be able to draft later. My list of elites for this season also includes Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin, Roddy White, DeSean Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Marques Colston, and Sidney Rice with Larry Fitzgerald right on the edge of greatness. (I’m not a fan of Matt Leinart at quarterback this season.)

So draft your elite wide receivers early and often, and you’ll have an advantage.

Every team needs at least one of these top wideouts to “win” their draft, but you’re even better off if you can nab two of them to fill your starting roster. Of course, that’s assuming that you start two wide receivers. If you start three wide receivers, I’d still limit myself to taking two elites early because you can wait on the third just to make sure you don’t miss out entirely on running back value.

I’ll explain the strategy I recommend to make this happen, but before I do that, a side note.

Plans: Made to be broken

No draft ever goes exactly to plan. You can’t know whom the rest of your league is going to draft. Several teams could draft quarterbacks in the first round, or no one could draft a quarterback for three rounds. We really don’t know. So you have to be able to adjust to what your league is giving you. That’s why I recommend the tiered draft cheatsheets, and that’s why I can’t tell you exactly how to draft each position.

So much like my first round strategy from last season, this strategy is just a starting point. Deviate from it as you have to in order to draft the best team possible.

Strategy on draft day

In 2010, I believe a championship team needs one of the elite quarterbacks and at least two of the elite wide receivers. If you get a reliable running back, more power to you.

And it’s all about how you play the first three rounds.

If you have a shot, go with one of the elite five running backs. You can build a solid team around a guy that is highly involved in the offense. While you might miss out on an elite quarterback because you’ll have to look at wide receivers in the second and third rounds, you can recover from that.

If you don’t get a shot at one of the elite running backs, you have you’re pick of WR-WR-QB, WR-QB-WR, or QB-WR-WR in the first three rounds. I like these sequences this season, and I think they maximize the value you get in the first three rounds.

Don’t use QB-WR-WR unless you really want Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Peyton Manning this season and your league scores passing touchdowns at six points. I don’t think any of the other elite quarterbacks should be considered until the second round.

In the fourth round, when it comes time to draft running backs, try to take the two best guys on the board right away. More than likely, other members of your league have moved on to drafting what’s left of the wide receivers and quarterbacks. You’ll have your pick of a good group of mid-level running backs who have the potential for greatness.

As you enter the chewy center of your draft, I’d suggest using the “cutting out the middle men” fantasy football draft strategy principles. Draft value and aim for sleepers rather than “safe” and “dependable” guys. You got your safe picks at the top of draft. For example, I’d rather have Jamaal Charles than Joseph Addai. I’d rather have Beanie Wells than Clinton Portis or Ricky Williams.

Make a special effort to get a lot of running backs. Since you didn’t draft them high, you’ll best protect yourself by drafting more of them. You want to load your roster with as many guys as possible who have the potential to be a top performer even if they’re currently a backup on their NFL roster.

You can also draft a few sleeper wide receivers later in the draft to compliment your studs. These wide receivers could become trade bait or free you up to trade your studs for one of the elite RBs you missed out on earlier in the draft. You can find a few good ones in Chris Harris’ article on “moneyball” wide receivers at ESPN.

With this strategy, you’ll “win” your draft just like I won mine.

Brett Favre Retires: What It Means for the Vikings’ Fantasy Values

ESPN reports this morning that Brett Favre plans to retire rather than rejoin the Minnesota Vikings. He managed to keep the Vikings on the hook until training camp before finally dropping the hammer. What a team player. IF and when Brett Favre actually takes the stage and says…for the third time…that he plans to retire, his absence will cut into the value of all the Vikings’ fantasy studs.

ESPN is bringing in the whole cavalry to cover the situation (Oh boy!), but here’s my take on the fantasy impact of losing the man, the myth, the legend, and the bane of offseason news.

Fantasy Impact on Vikings

Favre was the engine that got this offense moving in 2009. Without him, everything grinds to a halt. It remains to be seen how much Tarvaris Jackson can do to get it going again.

Jackson is no Brett Favre. He won’t be as creative with the offense, and I don’t see as many first downs in their future. That means fewer touchdowns for the entire unit, including newly anointed stud wide receiver Sidney Rice and running back Adrian Peterson.

Now there’s a chance that Sage Rosenfels, forgotten quarterback on the Vikings payroll, gets a shot. Many NFL minds lift him up as one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league, worthy of starting on a team somewhere. Despite rumors that he would have been on the roster bubble if Favre had returned, he could win the job as starter.

Last season, prior to Brett Favre’s decision to return to football, I covered the Vikings’ fantasy potential without Favre and argued that Rosenfels might be able to do just as well. With Rosenfels under center, Sidney Rice could still be a champ. Rosenfels has the arm, and he kept Andre Johnson fantasy relevant in stints as the starter in Houston.

But Tarvaris Jackson is a downgrade in the passing game. Unless Jackson has truly found his way as a quarterback and mastered Brad Childress’ offense, I don’t know that you can trust him to keep the Vikings in it this year.

Some would argue that Adrian Peterson stands to benefit from this blow, but I don’t see it. As I mentioned in my arguments for taking Chris Johnson at No. 1, A.P. had 18 touchdowns and 1,383 rushing yards last season with Favre. In 2008, he had just 10 touchdowns and 1,760 yards. Without Favre to open up this offense and keep defenses honest, A.P. will struggle.

And as A.P. gets worked into the ground game after game, there’s also a chance he could be injured. His running style is unforgiving, and he doesn’t avoid contact. A.P. could be this year’s Steven Jackson. He’ll get plenty of yards, I’m sure, but his touchdowns will be way down from his 2009 numbers.

I’d consider both Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew before A.P. with this development, and I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the safe out with one of those two rather than taking a chance on Peterson this season.

For Real?

We’re all assuming that these text messages to teammates and sources within the Vikings administration have it right. We’re taking their word that Favre is done. I’m not sure I buy it just yet. At least not until I hear it from the old man’s mouth.

Favre may just want to get us all writing about him two or three more times this offseason. He could wait out training camp and change his mind. So I’ll believe it in…let’s say Week 2 when Brett Favre isn’t in purple.

Until then, there’s always a chance “the most magical player to ever play the game” (Seriously, Hoge?) returns for a final campaign. I, for one, have made peace with the fact that he is going to play until 2025.

Whether you think Favre is really done or not, there’s one thing we can all agree on, he is one helluva drama queen.