Say Helu to Week 13 Pickups

Watching the Giants get utterly destroyed by the Saints on Monday Night Football forced me to dwell on one of my mistakes this season — I never should have dropped Victor Cruz.

While he looked like a fluke after his big breakout performance, Cruz has come through the byes as one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football. If you started him in Week 12, I’m sure you’re happy with the result.

Unfortunately, at this point in the season, a lot of the pickups are like Cruz. You may have dropped them, but if you’re lucky, you’ll find them on the waiver wire this week as you move towards the playoffs. Rather than divide the pickups by position, I’ll include them all in one list this week since we don’t have too many to talk about.

ROY HELU (Redskins)
Could it be? Has Shanahan finally handed the lead back duties to his most productive back? It certainly seems that way, and Shanahan is at least saying what we’d expect him to say if he was going to give Helu his chance to shine.

At first glance, you’d still want to be skeptical about Helu’s chances, but Shanahan might as well see what Helu can do with consistent touches every week now that the Redskins have nothing to play for but next year. His quarterbacks aren’t going to win Washington any games down the stretch on talent alone.

Helu should have his chance to shine, and he should excel in his remaining favorable matchups with his involvement in the passing game. While he might never reach sure-thing RB2 status, Helu could be a strong flex option in the fantasy playoffs.

GREG LITTLE (Browns)
He finally found  pay dirt  in Week 12, and while he’s not likely to do that again…at all…the rest of the season, he is one of the most targeted receivers over the last few weeks. If Colt McCoy puts up a fight in the tough stretch the Browns are about to enter (and tries to convince the Browns that they already have their quarterback of the future), Little could finish the year on a high note. Little faces Arizona’s weak pass defense in Week 15. At the very least, he should be a useful fantasy backup if you need him then.

DAMIAN WILLIAMS (Titans)
I’m not a huge fan of the Titans passing game, but you can’t argue with a playoff schedule that includes the Bills, Saints, Colts, and Jaguars. Williams has been getting the looks that count in Tennessee for the past few weeks.

MARION BARBER (Bears)
The Bears will continue to run the ball even more than they have been to keep Caleb Hanie from losing games for them. As a result, Barber should be more reliable as a fantasy flex play. He’s been getting the touchdowns, and now he might get enough yardage to make it worth retaining him for the fantasy playoffs. If Matt Forte were to get hurt, Barber would be a great asset to have.

KYLE ORTON (Chiefs)
We can’t know for certain when he’ll take over in Kansas City, but Orton’s got a nice schedule when he does. If you’re looking for a QB2 who could potentially spot start for your team during the fantasy playoffs, Orton’s not a bad stash right now.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS D/ST
They play the Colts. That is all.

The Tashard Choice Is Yours in Week 10 Pickups

I have a lot of fantasy football to catch up on since I entered the married world, including several episodes of The League to clean off the DVR, but I’ll get right to it this week.

When it comes to free agents, I was lucky in that no real breakout candidates emerged in my absence. We have just a few names to talk about this week other than the ones we’ve previously discussed.

As bye weeks end, you’ll want to start pruning the low-end starters from your roster and stashing high-ceiling players like Ben Tate, Antonio Brown, and Ronnie Brown for the fantasy playoffs. If starters are injured, you’ll be the one to benefit down the stretch.

LAURENT ROBINSON (Cowboys)

Miles Austin has another gimpy hamstring, which opens the door for even more contributions from Laurent Robinson in this Dallas offense. Tony Romo already trusts him in key situations, but he’ll be an even nicer fantasy play for the next 2-4 weeks, especially with the schedule Dallas has ahead.

ANTONIO BROWN (Steelers)

Emmanuel Sanders had to have surgery and lost all his potential fantasy value for the rest of at least the regular fantasy season. When you drop Sanders, be sure to grab Brown if no one else in your league owns him. He should start opposite Mike Wallace in the Steelers’ offense and has shown plenty of big-play ability.

ROY HELU (Redskins)

Shanahan’s running back of choice is Helu (at least for now). Shanahan gave him all the touches in Week 9, and Ryan Torain should only serve as his change-of-pace back. As long as Helu continues to stay out of the Shanny doghouse, he could be very productive. John Beck checked down to him early and often in Week 9, and while that’s bad news for the Redskins, it’s good news for fantasy owners.

TASHARD CHOICE (Redskins)

I would be remiss if I plugged Helu without also reminding you that Choice, when healthy, could get a piece of the Redskins backfield. He hasn’t looked like the same back since filling in for the injured Felix Jones and Marion Barber for the Cowboys two seasons ago, but Shanahan might make the most of him. Whether you own Helu or not, we can’t be sure how Choice will fit into this backfield yet. He could play as soon as this week.

JACOBY FORD (Raiders)

Ford demonstrated his speed in Week 9 and got a lot of attention from Carson Palmer while Darrius Heyward-Bey warmed the bench. This role seems more like a trend than a fluke, so I’d jump on Ford now if you’re in need of a WR3.

EARL BENNETT (Bears)

Jay Cutler showered his favorite receiver with plenty of third-down passes against the Eagles, and Bennett came through on every one of them. It’s hard to say he’ll have this kind of production every week, but clearly, he’s the receiver to own in Chicago. He could be a nice WR3 the rest of the way.

AUSTIN PETTIS (Rams)

Unfortunately for the Rams, rookie Greg Salas will miss the rest of the season after injuring his leg in Week 9. Fellow rookie Austin Pettis should fill the role as St. Louis’ slot receiver, and Bradford could look his way as much as he did Salas’. This Rams offense is not scoring a lot of points, but we still haven’t seen Sam Bradford at 100 percent with his new No. 1 Brandon Lloyd. Not to mention, the Rams schedule gets much easier the rest of the season. Pettis could have WR3 value if he grows into the slot role as Salas did.

On the Wire in Week 4: LeGarrette Blount, Ryan Torain Headline Best of Waiver Wire Running Backs to Stash

It’s been three weeks. Time to take a long hard look at your team and the “sleepers” you chose on draft day. If they haven’t woken up yet, chances are that they aren’t going to wake up anytime soon.

On the waiver this week, there are several running backs to take a chance on, but here are a few I think could have some real long-term value. Let these be your new sleepers.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you want a shot at another starting running back, Blount is my pick this week. He’s big, he’s young, and he’s got burst. Those are three things that the Bucs’ current starter, Cadillac Williams no longer has. Blount is my favorite player on this list.

Blount started the season with the Titans running behind Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer, and there was talk of them keeping him on the team for the regular season. But when it came time to cut down the roster, he didn’t make it and, instead, ended up in Tampa Bay. We can only hope whatever he picked up from the Titans running attack came with him.

We know he came with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder. You may have heard of him already because he kind of decked a guy in the face back in college at Oregon. So he gets a B- in discipline, but that checkered past could motivate him to prove that he can handle a starting role in the NFL and that those who overlooked him on draft day made a mistake.

The Bucs are saying all the things a fantasy owner wants to hear. Coach Raheem Morris has said that the team planned on using him more in Week 3 and that Blount has earned the short-yardage and goal-line back role on the Bucs. The team wants to work more running backs into the mix besides Cadillac. That all adds up to more carries for Blount and more chances to earn a larger role.

Kareem Huggins got all the preseason hype, and there was enough confidence in him as a runner for the Bucs to let Derrick Ward go this preseason. But a hamstring injury has kept Huggy sidelined all season. He’s also a smaller runner, not immediately seen as someone who could carry a full load for a team like the Bucs, a team that must run the ball with power in order to keep more explosive, experienced offenses off the field.

I am not one to immediately write a guy off for being a small running back, but just given the current state of the run game in Tampa, I’d rather bet on Blount than Huggy going forward. Blount is healthy and ready to contribute. Plus, he’s got one nice showing against the Steelers defense under his belt going into a bye week.

Earnest Graham can take carries here and there, and Cadillac won’t fade into the night. But the Bucs want to get younger at every position with a young quarterback and two rookie receivers. They’ll get young at running back, too, and right now, Blount is their best option.

Stash him on your bench now, and hope for the best when the Bucs come back from their bye Week 5 to take on the Bengals.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns

I mentioned him earlier this season on the waiver wire, and he makes this list today after having a historical performance, 100+ yards against the Ravens.

We heard about the Browns offensive line this offseason, but Jerome Harrison wasn’t able to take advantage of their skills during the early part of this season. Without him in the mix, Hillis proved he could.

He’s run well during his time and in Denver, and his skills as a rusher and pass-catcher have come to be appreciate in Cleveland as well.

No one can say for sure, but Hillis might have just earned himself the job as the No. 1 back in Cleveland for the rest of the season. That may not be a huge value, but a starter is a starter in this league.

Ryan Torain, RB, Washington Redskins

Shanahan’s prized, “prodigal son” prospect has returned to him, and he’s actually getting playing time.

In Denver, Torain showed promise in several games before a knee injury landed him on IR and then off the roster post-Shanahan. Lost in the shuffle of the 2005 All-Star backfield Shanahan brought together in Washington, Torain was cut alongside Willie Parker before the regular season, but now he’s back.

Rumor has it that the Redskins have more confidence in Torain carrying the full load than Keiland Williams, who was backing up Clinton Portis since the Redskins cut Larry Johnson. And the Redskins last-minute sign-and-play of Torain in Week 3 seems to suggest that the rumor is true.

Keep in mind that Shanahan is Shanahan, so this backfield won’t be reliable each week. But for now, it looks like Torain is the guy you want. He’ll be in demand on the waiver wire.

For the record, I haven’t given up on Keiland Williams either. So if you miss out on Torain this week and want to play the Shanny sweepstakes, Williams ain’t a bad bet either. He was, after all, important enough to stay on the roster when Torain got cut to start the year.

One thing I know for sure: Anyone could be the next big rushing star when Shanahan’s running things.

Other backs who could have an impact later this year:

Bernard Scott, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: Cedric Benson’s backup should be more than that this season. The Bengals want to work him in more as a larger part of the offense and a speedy complement to Benson’s pounding style. Benson hasn’t been the dominating back he was last season, but don’t expect Scott to take the job over full-time unless Benson is injured.

Javon Ringer, RB, Tennesee Titans: The Titans have admitted that they need to get Ringer more involved in the offense so that Chris Johnson can remain healthy, happy and dominating all season long and for many years to come. It remains to be seen how many carries he’ll get, but in the right matchup, Ringer could be a flex play. For now, he’s simply a handcuff to Johnson and a long-term investment for the rest of the season.

Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore Ravens: He’s no spring chicken, but McGahee’s been getting touches even while Ray Rice was healthy. No that Rice has banged up his knee, McGahee could have an expanded role, especially short-term but possibly long-term as the Ravens try to keep Rice healthy for the playoffs and maximize the stable of running backs they have on the roster, also including LeRon McClain.

If you’re hard up for a running back who could become a “smelling of rich mahogany” big deal by year’s end, these backs are my current picks. Stash ‘em now. Thank me later.

More waiver wire goodness:  FF Librarian,  The FF Geek Blog,  FF Toolbox,  The Hazean,  Football Jabber,  TMR,  The Big Lead,Razzball,  Sports Illustrated, and  Fanhouse.

Maybe that’s why Brandon Marshall wanted out of Denver

According to a recent AP report, the Denver Broncos are priming Eddie Royal to be one of the featured weapons of their offense this season. Josh McDaniels even hopes that Royal might one day be mentioned in the “same breath” as Wes Welker.

With so much praise for his receiver counterpart, could hints of this feeling be the reason Brandon Marshall wanted out of Denver this offseason?

As I imagine it, McDaniels must have whispered that part about the “breath” while looking skyward — and towards New England — and holding a small portrait of the famed Welker in one hand. If you’re Marshall, “former” star wide receiver of the Denver Broncos under Mike Shanahan and current team malcontent, you don’t enjoy hearing these kind words about the second-year player on the other side of the field without some mention of your impact.

Perhaps the blow might have been lessened if McDaniels had compared Marshall to Randy Moss? But they must have stopped quoting McDaniels before he went that far.

Regardless, Marshall can’t be too pleased with this latest focus, and he likely caught wind of McDaniels Royal fetish earlier in the offseason workouts as he recovered from surgery and whatever television punching he did upon hearing that Jay Cutler had been traded.

Marshall is still keeping to the sidelines after little to no offers came the Broncos’ way for him during his trade demands, and it may be getting even worse for him in Bronco land. Royal launched himself onto the fantasy pedestal last season with a huge first week while Marshall was suspended, and Marshall’s already looking like a no-go for the preseason.

It is becoming increasingly unlikely that wide receiver Brandon Marshall will play in the Broncos’ preseason opener Aug. 14 in San Francisco. He has missed the past six training camp workouts with a leg injury that may have been related to his offseason hip surgery.

Marshall may find that it’s not his leg injury preventing him from making an impact on the field if he sits out much longer.

His injury and this news about Royal in the passing game have forced me to drop Brandon Marshall a few notches in my rankings. While he’s still one of the elite, I would suggest passing on him as an early wide receiver choice and drafting Eddie Royal as a value pick. If Marshall ends up getting suspended again or falling out of favor in Denver — more than he already has — he won’t be the same player he was last season with Cutler.

We all know receivers are a little … self-confident, and surely, this kind of talk from the head coach doesn’t reassure a troubled receiver approaching the end of his contract. Marshall may have been gunning to get out of Denver as soon as he heard that Jay Cutler was out. After all, Kyle Orton isn’t going to get him the ball as much as old Cutty did to make him look spectacular, but McDaniels may also be rubbing the Broncos players the wrong way once again.

Perhaps he just needs to give Marshall the Royal treatment.

Foolish Thoughts on Week 17: Studs, Cowardly Lions and Cowbell

Your fantasy football season should now officially be over. We hope you all did better than expected, and if we were any help, even better.

We took this week off get our act together for the playoffs and recover from 17 weeks of fantasy football coverage. It’s grueling … but also so very, very good. Next season, I’m looking to play fewer teams on my own so that I can produce more articles and respond to more emails — there’s always one more than I don’t have the time to get to each week.

But enough about the future, let’s talk about the past…

The injury we all expected to strike Ben Roethlisberger before the end of the season finally hit him in Week 17, where it couldn’t really do much but hurt you if you started Big Ben against the Browns. I am sure that Mike Tomlin will forever be questioned for having Big Ben in that game to start with, and being carried off the field in a stretcher just before the playoffs usually takes a little win out of a team for the postseason.

Luckily for Big Ben and Steelers fans, Pittsburgh has a bye week for him to recover from his concussion. If you were planning on starting him in any playoff fantasy leagues — yes, more on that soon — I would reconsider. A concussed Big Ben still sounds like a Big Ben I wouldn’t have a lot of confidence in behind his Swiss cheese of a pass blocking line and against playoff-caliber defense.

Someone buy him a helmet with extra padding.

Was that an Edgerrin James sighting in the Cardinals stomping? Outside of Big Ben, the theme this week seemed to be fantasy studs making up for a slow season or dismal last two to three weeks.

Kurt Warner and the gang decided to bring it in this one like a playoff game, and old faithful certainly did that after a season of fantasy greatness. Warner had four touchdowns in the win over the Seahawks. Two of those went to Larry Fitzgerald. And just to round things out, Edgerrin James had over 100 yards.

It was the Seahawks, of course, but he also hit 100 yards with only 14 carries. Despite the Seahawks’ disappointing season, I’m sure that all the Seattle players wanted to take home this last one against the Cards for Mike Holmgren.

With that performance and the mediocrity that Tim Hightower showed when he was finally named starter, James may have his job back for the playoff run. I’d expect him to start against the Falcons, and maybe will use all that experience to do some good for the playoff strangers, the Cardinals.

If not, he can always hand out peanuts, right?

Speaking of fantasy studs making good for owners in the final week, LaDainian Tomlinson finally looked like LaDainian Tomlinson. Where was this three touchdown day when the Week 16 championship folks needed him?

I still like Darren Sproles as a big play threat moving forward, but both Sproles and L.T. had moves against the Broncos poor tackling. Even Jacob Hester had a touchdown in this one. Lucky for the Chargers, it’s a good time to have a running game, but the Colts won’t make as many mistakes as the Broncos this weekend.

Steven Jackson ended the season strongly as well even though the Rams have no postseason to speak of besides trying to figure out how to save the franchise.

The Rams may have finished better than the Lions, but the Lions still consider themselves the better team since they never recorded “Ram It.”

http://youtu.be/nOYY6futWBc

Besides Larry Fitzgerald, the Johnson stud receivers came up with two-touchdown days as well. Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson both locked up two scores as the Lions struggled to win one and the Texans struggled to once against convince Houston fans that they’ll be a contender next season — so far, they never come through on that promise they make by ending every season on a hot streak.

Atop the fantasy quarterback standings, Kurt Warner was joined by Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Sadly, Brees four touchdown performance came up just shy of the record for passing yardage in a single season.

The way he played this season, I’m sure he’ll have another shot at it. His final pass looked like he was struck by the curse of history; it was one of the worst looking ones he threw all day.

The only real surprise performance of the week was Michael Bush against the Bucs. The Raider running back had two touchdowns and almost 200 yards to beat the Bucs — and to give the Eagles the motivation they need to push into the playoffs against the Cowboys.

Michael Bush showed a lot this season, and I really think that the Raiders could do much better for themselves starting a committee of Michael Bush and Darren McFadden over Justin Fargas all the time. Fargas may have proven himself last season, but Bush and McFadden have a ridiculous amount of talent.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raiders put Bush on display here in Week 17 to try and make a deal with him this offseason. He’s definitely one to watch. On another team, he could break out like Michael Turner if given the opportunity.

On the Lions
Are we really surprised that the Lions were the first team to hit 0-16? They’ve danced with the bottom of the barrel for enough seasons by now for us to see this one coming.

Yes, it sucks that they set a record like that for Detroit, but they deserved it.

They drafted poorly and played uninspired long enough to breed a culture of acceptable losses. Rod Marinelli couldn’t do much with that no matter how much respect the team has for him.

On expatriates
Now that they are both free of other commitments, will Bill Belichick rebuild the dream team of former Patriot coaches? He could have Romeo Crennel, fired from the Browns, and Eric Mangini, fired from the Jets, back after they both failed to make it on their own.

Somehow, I don’t think Mangini sniffs a job with the Patriots staff unless Belichick wants to make him be a janitor … but Belichick would so love to make him a janitor.

It really makes you wonder how Charlie Weis kept his gig. Don’t you know that the hot thing to do this offseason is fire former Patriot coaches, Notre Dame?

On Skeletor powers in flux
Mike Shanahan got the axe. Didn’t see it coming, but it was clear something had to change after the Broncos slowly declined into mediocrity after emerging as the favorite in the AFC West with a string of victories.

Despite his Eddie Royal selection this season, Shanahan has made bad calls on personnel in the draft and free agency that have kept the Broncos just short of the winning team. The defense has been hit the hardest.

Without Shanny, Cutler and the Broncos are definitely a team to keep your eye on. Their Patriot-style offense wowed fantasy owners early in the season.

Shanahan will end up somewhere since he’s still considered one of the top coaches in the league. He’ll make something happen with his ability to turn a running back into a fantasy stud — before tossing him to the curb for the next guy one game later and infuriating fantasy owners. I think his luck finally caught up with him this season since all of his running backs got injured as soon as they had their big days.

He has to go somewhere. Maybe even Dallas. What would a season be without our evil dark lord of fantasy spoiling fantasy football draft picks around the world? Let’s just hope he doesn’t get full personnel control of the Lions. They don’t need any more questionable draft picks.

On the end of the season
The season may be over, but there are still playoffs (and playoff fantasy football) to think about! We’ll be playing fantasy throughout the postseason before getting into our offseason coverage on how to make you a better fantasy football player, so make sure you stick around as we continue to bring you more cowbell.

And if you’d rather be more suave in checking back every week for our latest, you should subscribe to get our latest updates delivered to you each week. It’ll be the start of something beautiful — and mildly entertaining.

On legendary media frenzy
And now that the season is over, let the love festivus for Brett Favre begin. Will he retire? Will he stick out another year? When will fans stop caring? News at 11 … every night … for the rest of our offseason lives.

Foolish Thoughts on Week 14: Game balls and last-quarter falls

I’m convinced that there is something in the water in Denver. If you’re in Colorado, don’t drink it. Just dump it down the drain and walk away. It must contain a chemical that turns your muscles into paper. How else would Shanahan lose four running backs in the same season — five if you count Selvin Young’s never-quite-good-enough-to-play hamstring?

Maybe it’s a higher power trying to teach Shanahan  to choose, and every time he thinks of screwing fantasy owners, the gods smite one down.

I don’t think Tatum Bell’s juju is strong enough to will him back into a starting role, but he’s the new running back of the week for Denver now that Peyton Hillis is out for the season with a torn hamstring. I only hope he helps Peyton Hillis get his bags since he was nice enough to do it for Rudi Johnson.

With Hillis out, the entire backfield of incoming rookies from Arkansas has come down with an injury during the course of this season. Felix Jones and Peyton Hillis were taken out for the season by hamstring tears while Darren McFadden suffered from turf toe in both feet for most of the season.

Maybe we should sniff out the water in Arkansas as well.

Of course, this injury curse means that Mike Shanahan will carry 10 running backs on his roster next season, forever making it impossible to predict which running back will tote the rock the most for the Broncos. Thanks, Fate. It wasn’t hard enough already.

For next season, I’ll just roll a dice each week to figure out which Denver running back to recommend as a start.

The Cowboys-Steelers game was painful to watch — not only because I projected the Cowboys to win but because it looked like only the defenses would be getting fantasy points out of that game. You got lucky if you played Tony Romo or Big Ben Roethlisberger and won this week.

Romo may have lost the game with that fourth quarter pick, but I don’t put all the blame on him. He played poorly, but the team caved as a whole at the end of that game.

I’m more concerned with Romo’s noticeable inability to hit his targets on several key plays. Whether it was the cold weather or having his splint off for the first time, Romo didn’t look like the same guy that put up 300-yard games with his splint on these past two weeks.

Can you trust Romo for your fantasy team? Well, if you made it through the first week of playoffs or made it into the playoffs with his horrible Week 14 point total, sure. Just don’t expect him to be the stud that wins your games these next few weeks.

You may find better options on your waiver wire — *cough* Shaun Hill *cough* — but there’s no reason to sit him unless you have a gem of a matchup since he has the potential to blow up for 300+ yards against anyone.

The Giants are the best team in football. They’re balanced. Their pass rush can get to anyone. They are packed full of talent. They will not be distracted by Plaxico Burress shooting himself in the hamstring.

Unfortunately, they will be distracted by a Westbrook. The Eagles managed to rebound from their slump by beating two of the best teams in the NFL, the Cardinals and Giants, in dominating performances in the last two weeks.

Both games were won on the back of Brian Westbrook because you have to get creative to stop him. That’s why he can be such a huge asset, when healthy, for any fantasy football team. When he’s good, he’s matchup proof.

The oft-injured Eagles running back is heating up right at the perfect time for fantasy owners and has a delicious matchup against the finished Browns, who are once again waiting until next year. Sorry, Ken Dorsey, I don’t believe in you.

On Sunday, the Eagles proved that a stout defense and the ability to negate the pass rush with a guy like Brian Westbrook can expose the Giants.

On Northern Exposure
Speaking of exposing giants, how about Visanthe Shiancoe? He has the balls — literally — to come out to see the lovely game ball presentation for Brad Childress’ son, bound for the Marine Corps, in a tiny little towel?

Congratulations, Janet Jackson, you are now off the hook for your televised nudity. It’s situations like these that make me wonder about the potential of the NFL in 3-D.

I’d post the video of the action here, but you don’t really want to see that. No, really, you don’t.

On hot or not
Instead, let’s tackle a very important issue that seems to have come across my radar. Is Britney Spears hot again?

I mean, I know she’s got the new album and the new body and all that, but isn’t any hotness she now regains negated by the crazy we have seen in the past?

It’s a lot like Antonio Bryant. No matter how many flashy games he has had this season, you still want to doubt him because, well, he’s Antonio Bryant. He’s got a little bit of crazy coach clash waiting in the wings and a little bit of suckage that always returns.

Does that make Jeff Garcia the equivalent of Kevin Federline? Garcia did sort of come out nowhere, the CFL, and every time you think he’s down and out, he comes storming back into relevance — or the press in Federline’s case.

I’ll have to ponder that one a bit more. In the meantime, check out Britney Spears’ new look for yourself. Hot or not, my foolish friends? Hot or not?

On the weather in Matt Jones’ nose
Sadly, the snowy-nosed Matt Jones finally got reevaluated by Santa — err, I mean Roger Goodell — for the naughty or nice list and finally serves his suspension starting this week just because YOU might be needing him for your fantasy playoffs.

Now, I don’t follow every intricate detail of the suspension and appeal process. I just try to avoid any players messed up in the system in any way, but how exactly did Matt Jones hold off this long?

Did the league wait to suspend him until the final three games of the season on purpose? Did he request he be able to finish out the one good season he’s ever had? It seems a little fishy to me.

On the Packers’ Super Bowl chances
The Green Bay Packers should not make the playoffs for this fan’s dancing and this fan’s dancing alone. The baby jersey doesn’t help either.

A Fool and His Money in Week 1

Now that we have the explanation out of the way, let’s talk Week 1 picks.

Jacob’s Ed. Note: Note that due to some compulsive gambling this weekend, we didn’t get the Week 1 picks up before the games. If you didn’t notice, congratulations — you rock. Starting Week 2, picks should be up prior to the weekend’s festivities. Now, on with the show…

Enter the Chadam

Hi. My name is Chadam, and I’ll be half of the two-headed team that will be leading you through the crazy world of picking NFL spreads.

Make no mistake; I am hardly what you would call an “expert.” My resume consists of a gambling addiction formed in my high school years, the borderline drinking problem that graces plagues most males in their twenties and the unlawful possession of irrational reasons for loving or hating certain teams and players.

In other words, I’m might be just like you and a large majority of the fantasy football community.

I’m a diehard Texans fan and will never bet against them under any circumstances, so take my analysis of their games with a grain of salt.

Elisha Manning is my sworn enemy and his older brother is a close second, which won’t affect my picks but will almost certainly rear its head in my commentary.

Finally, I’ll be bringing a few stats to the table. I won’t bore you with numbers, but merely alert you to some statistical trends that everybody can utilize, whether you’re in a friendly office pick ‘em pool or a regular weekend gambler.

My goals this year are to correctly pick 54 percent of the spreads, which is my rough estimate of the percentage that will guarantee you a profit against Vegas after taking into account the vigorish on bets, and to finish with a better record than Nick, the other guy.

It’s more than likely that my record will hover around .400, which allows you to insure a profit by choosing the opposite of whatever I do.

Enjoy our lighthearted analysis on the spreads, may your fantasy teams stay healthy this year and all of your sleepers pan out.

Pick Nick (Ed. Note: Get it?)

My name is Nick, and I’m the other guy making picks along with Chadam.

Chadam claims we are not experts, but I disagree. Do we not place our own hard-earned money on the line every week making bets? Did we not go to Vegas last year for the NFL Wild Card playoffs and steal some loot back from Caesar’s Palace?

We put our own money on the line, so I think that makes us experts. That being said, we aren’t experts that you should trust blindly, but we’ll do our best to point out what we think are the best bets each weekend and, hopefully, drop a little gambling knowledge on a few of you sports book virgins.

Consider this week’s picks my first step towards dominating Chadam this year. Enjoy!

A Fool and His Money…

Today, we’ll start with our predictions on the NFL opener Thursday between the Redskins and Giants and the rest of opening weekend.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants

Chadam Takes: GIANTS (-4) over Redskins

Talk about a lack of respect for the defending champs. I am in the camp that believes in the year-after curse for Super Bowl champs (The Steelers in 2006 are a good example) unless they prove otherwise.

That defense is a shadow of last year’s squad, and I can see Plax not trying as hard to stay on the field for all 16 games this year. That being said, Jason Campbell looked awful this preseason, and I think he’s another year from breaking out.

The Giants’ offensive cogs haven’t played enough games yet to be injured (I’m looking at you, Brandon Jacobs), so I think they’ll put enough points on the board to stay comfortably ahead the entire game.

Nick Takes: Redskins (+4) over GIANTS

I like the Redskins with points in the game tonight. I’ve been pretty high on Jason Campbell lately and expect him to have a breakout year despite his shoddy preseason performance. The Giants won’t have anything close to the pass rush they had last year, and I think that’s just what the doctor ordered for Campbell.

He does have one of my many personal sworn enemies on his team, Keenan McCardell, but hopefully, nobody will be counting on anything from him for the rest of his life. That guy cost me a playoff spot in one of my fantasy leagues a few years ago, and I will never forgive him for it. Ever.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Chadam Takes: Bengals (-1.5) over RAVENS

I think the record of rookie QBs in their first game has to be like 0-23968, right? With McGahee questionable, I don’t see where the Ravens’ offensive assault is going to come from in this one — unless, of course, Ray Lewis stabs somebody again.

Nick Takes: Bengals (-1.5) over RAVENS

I don’t like trusting the Bengals defense, but they are going up against an injured running back and a Division II QB who has never played a game in the NFL.

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons

Chadam Takes: Lions (-3) over FALCONS

Did I mention that I hate rookie QBs? You know the Lions are putting up at least 24 points. Do you really believe the Falcons will score 20?

Turner could run for 230 yards in this one though.

Nick Takes: Lions (-3) over FALCONS

I think both teams will do better than they did last year, but the Falcons have too many new faces to mesh together right away.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Chadam Takes: Jets (-3) over DOLPHINS

Poor Pennington. Everywhere he goes people seem to knock him for his girlish arm strength. What a crappy stigma to have.

Can anyone think of a worse fault to have (that’s NFL scouting report related)? Help me out in the comments if you have any ideas.

Nick Takes: DOLPHINS (+3) over Jets

Chad Pennington is going to be mad. The Big Tuna is always mad. Dolphins’ head coach Tony Sparano always looks mad, and Ricky…well, he’s at peace with himself and everybody around him.

I think the Jets need a little more time before Favre is comfortable, and I’m guessing Bill Parcells has no moral problem with asking Pennington about the Jets’ offense. I pick Miami in an upset.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Chadam Takes: Texans (+6.5) over STEELERS

This pick is more of a homer pick. I think the Steelers have a legit chance of blowing this game wide open. Sadly, since Houston is such a popular sleeper this year, they’re being overhyped in the spreads. Nick might be benefiting this year from my automatic Texans picks.

Nick Takes: STEELERS (-6.5) over Texans

I feel like I know what I’m going to get from the Steelers. I like that.

I don’t feel like I know what I’m going to get from the Texans. I’m going to predict they put just enough points on the board in garbage time to make me nervous but still lose by seven.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Chadam Takes: Jaguars (-3) over TITANS

The most ridiculous line of the day. I love the Jags this year, and hopefully, after creating their fifth turnover of the day, people might respect their defense a little more. Besides, you know the whole team will be JACKED UP to play if Matt Jones is back in the locker room.

Nick Takes: Jaguars (-3) over TITANS

Vince Young is my hero, especially after I saw him down on Sixth Street (in Austin) the other night and because of that whole National Championship thing, too, but I do learn from my mistakes. I’m not betting again on a QB who had a horrible preseason with a new offensive coordinator.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Chadam Takes: SAINTS (-3.5) over Buccaneers

I almost chose the Bucs in this one, but I love the Saints’ offense this year. So does Nick apparently — he drafted four Saints in the fantasy football league Jacob and I share with him.

It’s a win-win. I either get a correct pick, or I watch Nick’s fantasy team suck it up and start 0-1.

Nick Takes: Buccaneers (+3.5) over SAINTS

I like the Saints this year, but they are going to be playing in a relatively empty stadium against a very underrated defense. I like the Bucs with the points in this one.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Chadam Takes: Cardinals (-2.5) over 49ERS (NINERS)

Every year, the Cardinals are a sleeper, and this year is no exception. I don’t think they’ll come close to the playoffs, but for this game, I’m being suckered in by the Cardinals.

Arizona’s passing game is going to make Martz wonder why he picked such a terrible team for his system (No QB, WRs or offensive line).

Nick Takes: Cardinals (-2.5) over 49ERS (NINERS)

I like this bet a lot. I’m not convinced Mike Martz can fix the 49ers’ sorry offense, and even if he could, it still couldn’t compete with the weapons they are packing in Arizona.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Chadam Takes: NO ONE

Jacob Ed. Note: Chadam, being the smart guy that he is, failed to turn in a pick in this contest. Apparently, he figured it was such a lock for the Patriots that he blocked it out of his mind when he turned in picks this week. Clever, but for the sanctity of his pick record, mark this one up as a miss for Chadam.

Nick Takes: PATRIOTS (-15.5) over Kansas City

I absolutely hate giving anybody 15.5 points, but it’s tough not to like the Patriots in a slaughter over the Chiefs.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills

Chadam Takes: BILLS (-1) over Seahawks

I kinda feel bad for Holmgren; his offense will be Bears-esque this year.

Let’s see. He’s lost four of his top-five WRs from last year (Deion Branch, D.J. Hackett, Bobby Engram and Ben Obomanu), replaced the inept Shaun Alexander with the equally-inept Julius Jones, lost two offensive lineman in camp and now Matt Hasselbeck has back problems?

Holmgren’s probably counting down the days until retirement.

Nick Takes: Seahawks (+1) over BILLS

I would have expected to see Seattle favored in this game. Normally, that would make me excited, but for some reason, I’m nervous.

Oh well, you gotta have nerves to be a gambler.

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Chadam Takes: Rams (+7.5) over EAGLES

Which QB will be injured first? I actually think the Eagles will be great this year, but a healthy Rams team is no pushover either. I say Philly wins by three.

Nick Takes: EAGLES (-7.5) over Rams

I like the Eagles this year and think they could do some damage in the NFC. The Rams are going to have to prove to me that they are capable of staying close with opponents before I even think about betting on them.

Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers

Chadam Takes: Panthers (+9) over CHARGERS

How many passing attempts will there be in this game from both teams combined? 20? 25?

With Smith out and Gates not likely to make a significant impact, I’ll go with the underdog and hope I’m right.

Nick Takes: Panthers (+9) over CHARGERS

Not too much to say here. I like San Diego to win, but I don’t feel comfortable giving up nine points.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-5.5) over BROWNS

What a bad matchup for the Browns. Anderson, Edwards and Lewis are all banged up while Dallas is completely healthy with a motivated Pacman (Ed. Note: Now, Chadam, he goes by Adam) Jones?

Money in the bank. God, I hope Nick chose the Browns.

Nick Takes: Cowboys (-5.5) over BROWNS

I hate any team that has anything to do with the flamer that is Brady Quinn, but I don’t need to make this bet out of spite.

Cleveland finished horribly last year, and all their studs are coming of injuries. I’m laying down quite a few bucks on this game and in anticipation of a blowout.

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

Chadam Takes: COLTS (-9.5) over Bears

I hate to say it, but I think Manning’s knee problems are overblown. Harrison’s problems, however, are not, and my constant drafting of Anthony Gonzalez backs up my assertion. I think this will be a really low-scoring game — like 17-7. And yes, the only points for Chicago come from a Devin Hester punt return.

Nick Takes: Bears (+9.5) over COLTS

To be honest, I don’t like this bet at all. I’m not really sure what to expect in this game.

The Colts will be pumped up in the new stadium but will be missing Jeff Saturday. The Bears have a good defense, special teams and running game, but they have no passing game whatsoever.

When in doubt, I like to take the points.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Chadam Takes: PACKERS (-2.5) over Vikings

My dark horse NFC champion against the terribly overhyped Vikings? Only three points?

I’m betting my rent money on this one.

Nick Takes: PACKERS (-2.5) over Vikings

Good luck, Aaron Rodgers. You’re going to need it. The Vikings are going to be coming after you hard, but I predict Rodgers will calm down after a miserable first half and bring the Packers back to win it by a field goal.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Chadam Takes: RAIDERS (+3) over Broncos

Nnamdi Asomugha, cornerback (CB) for the Raiders (Ed. Note: FYI, Chadam didn’t sneeze), should be a household name. He is so filthy-good I think he was created in a lab with DNA from Champ Bailey.

Anyways, Brandon Marshall should be glad Asomugha is not schooling him Monday night…and Shanahan will torture my soul by starting Selvin Young but letting Andre Hall get 30 carries.

Nick Takes: Broncos (-3) over RAIDERS

I like Oakland’s young nucleus and head coach, but I still think it will take them awhile to learn how to win games. Look for Selvin Young to save the day in this one.

UPDATE: Friday Morning Trash Talkin’

Chadam: This Season: 1-0-0. Games Ahead of Nick: 1.

Nick: So I started off on the wrong foot by picking the Redskins on Thursday night’s opening game. No problem.

I’ll let Chadam brag because it will be the only time this whole season that he will be ahead in the picks.

So congratulations, Chadam. Maybe you and your mom, who you still live with, can go out and celebrate. I’m just going to concentrate on making more money this weekend.