Random ESPN Mock Draft: Results May Vary

Last week, in the process of participating in a mock draft with several other fantasy football writers from the Interwebs, I got stuck inside of a random ESPN draft outside of the one we were using for the official mock draft. After the first couple of picks, which I made as quick reactions since I was simultaneously participating in another draft, I had to set it over to ESPN’s autodraft feature and let it ride. Several of the other drafters had to do the same. Here’s what I ended up with when it was all over.

Starting Lineup
QB Kurt Warner
RB Adrian Peterson
RB Ryan Grant
RB/WR Willie Parker
WR Steve Smith (CAR)
WR Santana Moss
TE Kevin Boss
D/ST Miami Dolphins
K Neil Rackers

Bench
QB Matt Schaub
QB Eli Manning
QB Matt Hasselbeck
RB Marshawn Lynch
RB Fred Taylor
RB Tim Hightower
WR Eddie Royal

First reactions
Wow, ESPN’s autodraft bot is really overreacting to the quarterback injuries from last season. Four quarterbacks? Really? This bot must have drafted Tom Brady last season.

Some huge value and tradebait in having guys like Schaub and Hasselbeck on the bench, but this drafted roster would likely force me into making an early-season trade for some more wide receiver depth.

Speaking of wide receivers, receiver is the one position where I feel this draft was the weakest. Steve Smith is a great foundation, but Santana Moss, even after his stellar run last season, can’t be depended on to produce WR2 numbers. On the bench, I only have Eddie Royal, who may or may not benefit from the change to Kyle Orton at quarterback in Denver. That’s just dangerous.

At running back, Peterson/Grant at running back should be a useful duo. Willie Parker and post-suspension Lynch should also add some punch to the roster if Grant disappoints. Fred Taylor has some spot-duty, emergency running back value, but Hightower is almost a waste of a pick unless he turns into the LenDale White to Chris Wells’ Chris Johnson. I have a feeling Hightower is more likely to become the Brandon Jackson to Chris Wells’ Ryan Grant though.

Tight end could be stronger and so could defense, but for an autodraft, it’s hard to complain about those positions when the overloading of quarterbacks is such an issue.

The full, unabridged mock draft is below with analysis on each round for those of you who are interested. I was drafting under the team name “Power Down” because at the time, I was trying to exit this mock draft … before it started with me still logged into it.

Feel free to share your observations below. The comments are yours.

The Entire Draft

**- Represent my picks

Round: 1
** (1) Power Down – Adrian Peterson RB
(2) The Team To Beat – Chris Johnson RB
(3) Bruno Boys.net – Michael Turner RB
(4) Team McGill – Matt Forte RB
(5) Team Harmelink – Larry Fitzgerald WR
(6) Team hoyos – Maurice Jones-Drew RB
(7) Team g – Andre Johnson WR
(8) Team Hogg – Steven Jackson RB
(9) Team Johnson – LaDainian Tomlinson RB
(10) Team O – Frank Gore RB

I went A.P. with the No. 1 pick because it was easy. Personally, I don’t like the guy, but I’d gladly take him if someone will trade me a Forte or Gore and some parts for him before Game 1 of the season. Someone REALLY likes Chris Johnson and took him as the No. 2. I don’t feel that strongly about him, but he is a worthy first round pick if he’s your guy.

Fitz makes an appearance as the No. 1 wide receiver off the board at the No. 5 pick, which is a little high to go with a WR in my opinion. Andre Johnson went No. 7, which also seems high for a 10-team league. Jackson, Tomlinson and Gore round out the first round as expected.

Round: 2
(11) Team O – DeAngelo Williams RB
(12) Team Johnson – Brandon Jacobs RB
(13) Team Hogg – Drew Brees QB
(14) Team g – Calvin Johnson WR
(15) Team hoyos – Randy Moss WR
(16) Team Harmelink – Steve Slaton RB
(17) Team McGill – Peyton Manning QB
(18) Bruno Boys.net – Clinton Portis RB
(19) The Team To Beat – Tom Brady QB
** (20) Power Down – Ryan Grant RB

The top running back from 2008 kicks off the second round — still too high for my tastes with Jonathan Stewart breathing even closer down his neck this season. The league was operating under standard scoring with 4-point passing touchdowns, so Brees going early second round makes sense. Does the pick of Calvin Johnson over Randy Moss signify some doubt in Tom Brady or just a Detroit fan?

I went with Ryan Grant over Marion Barber to end the round because I believe he’ll be much improved in Aaron Rodgers second season and fully recovered from his groin injury.

Round: 3
** (21) Power Down – Steve Smith WR
(22) The Team To Beat – Marion Barber RB
(23) Bruno Boys.net – Greg Jennings WR
(24) Team McGill – Brian Westbrook RB
(25) Team Harmelink – Roddy White WR
(26) Team hoyos – Reggie Wayne WR
(27) Team g – Kevin Smith RB
(28) Team Hogg – Ronnie Brown RB
(29) Team Johnson – Anquan Boldin WR
(30) Team O – Thomas Jones RB

The autodraft took over at this point and took Steve Smith for me at the top of the third round. I would have liked to take Barber and really lock up my running backs, but hey, the bot thought differently. Taking Barber would have also limited me to receivers like Housh and Roy E. Williams on the next turn.

The general run was on wide receivers by this point. No one really jumps out as being out of place. Look how far Reggie Wayne is falling — lack of confidence in Indy without the coaching staff they have had these past seasons? The Colts lost a little of their fantasy luster when Peyton Manning struggled last year.

Round: 4
(31) Team O – Brandon Marshall WR
(32) Team Johnson – Marques Colston WR
(33) Team Hogg – Terrell Owens WR
(34) Team g – Pierre Thomas RB
(35) Team hoyos – Jason Witten TE
(36) Team Harmelink – Jonathan Stewart RB
(37) Team McGill – Wes Welker WR
(38) Bruno Boys.net – Dwayne Bowe WR
(39) The Team To Beat – Derrick Ward RB
** (40) Power Down – Marshawn Lynch RB

Brandon Marshall before Colston? Do people remember that Kyle Orton is now the quarterback in Denver? Terrell Owens apparently has no doubters either as he goes off the board among the second/third tier despite being in Buffalo and competing for catches with Lee Evans.

Notice that not just Pierre Thomas but also Jonathan Stewart, Derrick Ward and Marshawn Lynch are coming off the board before Reggie Bush. Round 4 is still too rich for a tight end in my mind, but if you want to get Witten, you might have to go there.

Round: 5
** (41) Power Down – Kurt Warner QB
(42) The Team To Beat – T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR
(43) Bruno Boys.net – Philip Rivers QB
(44) Team McGill – Reggie Bush RB
(45) Team Harmelink – Tony Romo QB
(46) Team hoyos – Aaron Rodgers QB
(47) Team g – Matt Ryan QB
(48) Team Hogg – Roy E. Williams WR
(49) Team Johnson – Darren McFadden RB
(50) Team O – Tony Gonzalez TE

Kurt Warner in the fifth round? I’ll take it. (I guess my bot isn’t so confident with this decision judging from the number of backup QBs he drafted for me after this pick.) Housh would have been a solid pick here now that he’s the No. 1 guy in Seattle.

Romo’s going in the fifth as well and before Aaron Rodgers, closely followed by his main target, Roy E. Williams.

Round: 6
(51) Team O – Braylon Edwards WR
(52) Team Johnson – Larry Johnson RB
(53) Team Hogg – Joseph Addai RB
(54) Team g – Chad Ochocinco WR
(55) Team hoyos – LenDale White RB
(56) Team Harmelink – Vincent Jackson WR
(57) Team McGill – Antonio Gates TE
(58) Bruno Boys.net – Antonio Bryant WR
(59) The Team To Beat – Dallas Clark TE
** (60) Power Down – Willie Parker RB

Parker and Addai were first round picks at one point. I’d take Addai as late as you can have him this season. Donald Brown doesn’t scare me off of a guy who gets to score touchdowns for Peyton Manning and has starting duties.

Willie Parker, while recovering this offseason, is still going to work hard for the Steelers. I don’t think he’ll lose his starting job in training camp to any of the other backs, and one should never forget that the Steelers like to run.

Round: 7
** (61) Power Down – Matt Schaub QB
(62) The Team To Beat – DeSean Jackson WR
(63) Bruno Boys.net – Knowshon Moreno RB
(64) Team McGill – Jamal Lewis RB
(65) Team Harmelink – Greg Olsen TE
(66) Team hoyos – Bernard Berrian WR
(67) Team g – Kellen Winslow TE
(68) Team Hogg – Donovan McNabb QB
(69) Team Johnson – Matt Cassel QB
(70) Team O – Lee Evans WR

Schaub is a great backup this season and a borderline starter, so I don’t mind getting him on the turn into the seventh round.

Apparently, the move to Tampa Bay hasn’t scared enough people away from Kellen Winslow for him to fall much from last year’s draft stock.

Round: 8
(71) Team O – Le’Ron McClain RB
(72) Team Johnson – Owen Daniels TE
(73) Team Hogg – Ahmad Bradshaw RB
(74) Team g – Darren Sproles RB
(75) Team hoyos – Kevin Walter WR
(76) Team Harmelink – Hines Ward WR
(77) Team McGill – Jay Cutler QB
(78) Bruno Boys.net – Anthony Gonzalez WR
(79) The Team To Beat – Steelers D/ST D/ST
** (80) Power Down – Santana Moss WR

Consider Kevin Walter noticed. He goes off the board before Ward, Gonzalez and Moss. People always think Houston is bound to have a big year because they finish every season strong. Will this year be the season they finally keep it together?

Santana Moss is a sketchy WR2, so I’d like to have more depth at receiver behind him. The bot thinks differently.

Round: 9
** (81) Power Down – Eddie Royal WR
(82) The Team To Beat – Ted Ginn Jr. WR
(83) Bruno Boys.net – Chris Wells RB
(84) Team McGill – Jerricho Cotchery WR
(85) Team Harmelink – Cedric Benson RB
(86) Team hoyos – Giants D/ST D/ST
(87) Team g – Santonio Holmes WR
(88) Team Hogg – Chris Cooley TE
(89) Team Johnson – Ben Roethlisberger QB
(90) Team O – Willis McGahee RB

Eddie Royal seems like a silly pick by the bot with Holmes still on the board. I don’t love Holmes, but it’s not like Royal’s going to have the chance to reproduce the same numbers with Cutler now in Chicago. Royal’s not terrible, but he’s not going to be the same guy as last season.

The Giants defense goes off the board in the ninth round, even though they weren’t a great fantasy defense last season. I’m not sure they’ll be too great this year either playing tough teams like the Cowboys and Eagles with their star defensive coordinator coaching in St. Louis.

Willis McGahee’s obviously not the starter in Baltimore anymore, so I’m surprised to see him go here rather than three rounds later when someone will finally take Ray Rice, who I’d definitely take a chance on this season considering how much Baltimore runs.

Round: 10
(91) Team O – Carson Palmer QB
(92) Team Johnson – Donald Driver WR
(93) Team Hogg – Earnest Graham RB
(94) Team g – Torry Holt WR
(95) Team hoyos – Donald Brown RB
(96) Team Harmelink – Laveranues Coles WR
(97) Team McGill – Felix Jones RB
(98) Bruno Boys.net – John Carlson TE
(99) The Team To Beat – Lance Moore WR
** (100) Power Down – Fred Taylor RB

I have to hope that the bot was going to get me Lance Moore before he went off the board one pick earlier. Everyone will forget the Lance Moores and Kevin Walters of the world in the draft this year. Make sure you don’t. Fred Taylor is a decent backup, but I hate to draft any players in New England’s backfield.

Carson Palmer in the tenth round could be a huge steal if he ends up returning to glory this season.

Round: 11
** (101) Power Down – Eli Manning QB
(102) The Team To Beat – Ravens D/ST D/ST
(103) Bruno Boys.net – Kyle Orton QB
(104) Team McGill – Titans D/ST D/ST
(105) Team Harmelink – Michael Crabtree WR
(106) Team hoyos – Fred Jackson RB
(107) Team g – Julius Jones RB
(108) Team Hogg – Steve Breaston WR
(109) Team Johnson – Derrick Mason WR
(110) Team O – Donnie Avery WR

Eli Manning? Was that really necessary Mr. ESPN bot? I would have much rather had Devin Hester, Derrick Mason (if he doesn’t retire after all) or even Julius Jones. Apparently, I have met my quota for running backs and wide receivers for now though.

Some great upside bargains at receiver in this round as some people start to look at defense early. Orton as a backup quarterback is a sneaky pick. He may not be as flashy as Cutler, but he could be more efficient.

Round: 12
(111) Team O – Devin Hester WR
(112) Team Johnson – Chester Taylor RB
(113) Team Hogg – Zach Miller TE
(114) Team g – David Garrard QB
(115) Team hoyos – Sammy Morris RB
(116) Team Harmelink – LeSean McCoy RB
(117) Team McGill – Domenik Hixon WR
(118) Bruno Boys.net – Ray Rice RB
(119) The Team To Beat – Percy Harvin WR
** (120) Power Down – Tim Hightower RB

I think Hightower could end up going undrafted in many drafts, so I’m not too happy with the bot making this one for me. All the tight ends with good upside have jumped off the board here now that Zach Miller is gone, which leaves me with slim pickings late in the draft.

Look at how late David Garrard finally goes off the board. The guy had a Swiss cheese line last season and still surprised people with his finish among the top 12. This year he has Torry Holt and some other new blood at receiver. Anyone think we may be selling him a little short?

Round: 13
** (121) Power Down – Matt Hasselbeck QB
(122) The Team To Beat – Stephen Gostkowski K
(123) Bruno Boys.net – Vikings D/ST D/ST
(124) Team McGill – Chris Chambers WR
(125) Team Harmelink – Bobby Engram WR
(126) Team hoyos – Leon Washington RB
(127) Team g – Eagles D/ST D/ST
(128) Team Hogg – Kevin Curtis WR
(129) Team Johnson – Patrick Crayton WR
(130) Team O – Rashard Mendenhall RB

Hey bot, how bout another quarterback? Sure, buddy. No problem … *sigh* So unnecessary.

Do you really need the best kicker in fantasy? No, they all work. Someone out there wants to make sure they don’t miss getting the top one. It’s worth considering that if New England turns back into the touchdown pinball machine they were in 2007, Gostkowski will be a glorified extra point machine.

Chris Chambers might be the steal of this round if he can still contribute in San Diego. He had to go down last season before Vincent Jackson finally emerged.

Round: 14
(131) Team O – Ricky Williams RB
(132) Team Johnson – Trent Edwards QB
(133) Team Hogg – Jerious Norwood RB
(134) Team g – Jets D/ST D/ST
(135) Team hoyos – Michael Bush RB
(136) Team Harmelink – Muhsin Muhammad WR
(137) Team McGill – Justin Gage WR
(138) Bruno Boys.net – Mark Clayton WR
(139) The Team To Beat – Dustin Keller TE
** (140) Power Down – Dolphins D/ST D/ST

Mostly backups and upside in this round. I like Trent Edwards this late and Norwood. Mark Clayton is the starter in Baltimore if Derrick Mason does retire. Keller could increase his stock this season if he becomes a security blanket for Mark Sanchez.

And look at the clever bot, snagging the Miami defense. At least I can agree that they come at a good price in this round.

Round: 15
** (141) Power Down – Kevin Boss TE
(142) The Team To Beat – Jake Delhomme QB
(143) Bruno Boys.net – Tony Scheffler TE
(144) Team McGill – Laurence Maroney RB
(145) Team Harmelink – Panthers D/ST D/ST
(146) Team hoyos – Nate Kaeding K
(147) Team g – Patriots D/ST D/ST
(148) Team Hogg – Ryan Longwell K
(149) Team Johnson – David Akers K
(150) Team O – Mason Crosby K

It’s kicker time … so my bot takes a tight end at last.

Delhomme gets no respect these days. Scheffler gets even less. For all the hurt that Josh McDaniels has brought to Denver, the Broncos still have plenty of nice things to say about one of the most underrated pass-catching tight ends in the game. (Yes, I would rather have him than Kevin Boss.)

If Maroney does anything, I guess his selection in this round is a good deal, but I find it hard to believe that he’ll live up to expectations this season with Brady back under center.

Round: 16
(151) Team O – Redskins D/ST D/ST
(152) Team Johnson – Bears D/ST D/ST
(153) Team Hogg – Packers D/ST D/ST
(154) Team g – Jason Elam K
(155) Team hoyos – Joey Galloway WR
(156) Team Harmelink – Rob Bironas K
(157) Team McGill – John Kasay K
(158) Bruno Boys.net – Nick Folk K
(159) The Team To Beat – Shaun Hill QB
** (160) Power Down – Neil Rackers K

Packers and Bears defense in the final round? Not too shabby. We know Green Bay is rebuilding, but they have some of the key parts in place to do good things if they grip the system.

Remember how high Donte Stallworth was drafted when he was a Patriot. Look at Joey Galloway. He’s the No. 2 receiver in New England — with Wes Welker playing the slot — and he may do great things flying down the side of the field across from Randy Moss. He’s a little less likely to disappear than Donte Stallworth was and an interesting last-round selection.

Shaun Hill brought some life back to San Francisco when he came under center. Getting him in the last round is a daring way to backup your quarterback, but he’s not a terrible bye week fill. Just hope Alex Smith doesn’t return from the great beyond to take his job back.

Of course, my bot hooks me up with Neil Rackers. Thanks, bud.

Fantasy Draft Day Pick or Pass: Top 24 Running Backs by ADP

Many a fantasy football site will give you rankings. Most of the time, that’s enough for you to make your decisions when drafting a fantasy team, but I like to add a little depth to my rankings by incorporating the “players to avoid” tag.

You see, not every player is desirable, even if they are the No. 5-ranked running back on the board. Some bad situations may not compel experts to rank a player lower, and at times, there’s no logical reason behind disliking a player other than that icky feeling you get when he’s the next player in your rankings. Regardless, we still have every right to avoid a guy in the draft.

If I had only listened to that inner “pick or pass” feeling when it came time for me to make my first round selection in 2007, I might have never taken Larry Johnson with a mid-first-round pick … and that would have made all the difference.

For this first addition of “pick or pass,” I gathered the top 24 running backs ranked by average draft position (ADP) over at Fantasy Football Calculator to break down. The rankings were current as of July 15, 2009. If you have any more reservations about players that I don’t touch on here or just find yourself wanting to share your agreement, please tell me about your concerns and tips in the comments.

Pick or Pass: Top 24 Running Backs as Drafted in Mock Drafts

1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings – ADP: 1.01 – PICK
So what if he is the unanimous No. 1 running back? Some guys still don’t love him first overall. No one says you have to take him — even if you league boos (and they will). Despite my personal distrust of Peterson, I would “pick” Peterson at the No. 1 because of his explosive potential and the huge tradebait he becomes if you want to do a little preseason maneuvering before the first game of the season. You can’t go wrong with the player everyone expects to be the best, right?

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP: 1.03 – PICK
Everybody loves the bowling-ball receiving back from the Jacksonville Jaguars. While I dislike him here at the No. 2 spot, he’s still a “pick” for me somewhere in the top five. Unless the offensive line pulls another Humpty Dumpty routine, Jones-Drew should have all the chances in the world to put up RB1-worthy stats. Then again, if you’re not a Jacksonville fan … you may hold off on Jones-Drew at the No. 2 because we all know he’ll still share the rock with Greg Jones this season, even if it’s not as much as he shared it with Fred Taylor.

3. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons – ADP: 1.03 – PICK
He’s just barely a “pick” because he’s such a safe choice. Yes, his schedule is tougher. Yes, he ran many, many times last season. Yes, his quarterback’s other weapons are improved this season, but look again at how many chances Michael Turner had near the goal line last year. Turner can only benefit from more movement up and down the field, so don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on him anywhere in the top five.

4. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears –   ADP: 1.04 – PICK
The little rookie back that could last season, Forte was the definition of consistent. If he didn’t get a touchdown, he got 100+ yards — and he always got 100+ yards. Jay Cutler under center should shake things up, but much like Turner, making the weapons more dangerous only makes me like Forte more. He’s a “pick” anywhere in the top five as well.

5. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – ADP: 1.06 – PASS
Ah, the first “pass” of the running back class rears its ugly head at No. 5. Steven Jackson is one of the most talented backs in the league, and the Rams plan to make him a workhorse this season. Still, I’m just not feeling his health and the team play in St. Louis. The Rams have very little receiver talent, a banged-up veteran at quarterback in Bulger and not much to make opposing defenses look at anyone but … you guessed it … Jackson. He may get plenty of carries and quite a few yards, but I’ll “pass.”

6. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers – ADP: 1.08 – PASS
Sermons have been written on why LaDainian Tomlinson faded last season and how much you need to believe in him this year, but they’re all blasphemy, my friend. If it looks like the end of his career and it talks like the end of his career, it’s probably a duck … and perhaps I missed something in the argument I was trying to make there. Here’s the point: he’s aging, Darren Sproles is franchise-tagged and looking to impress his way out of San Diego and the Chargers window for a Super Bowl victory is closing faster than Tom Brady can buy new flower boxes. If L.T. stays healthy for the entire season, he’s likely to put up numbers close to his old averages, but this high in the draft, I’d still “pass.”

7. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – ADP: 1.08 – PICK
The reason you’d pass on a guy like Steven Jackson or L.T. is right here at No. 7. Chris Johnson has the speed to burn you, and the team to grind you into the ground. I’m not scared of LenDale White unless I’m covered in donut glaze. Johnson is just the kind of young running back in a run-oriented offense that I would want to lead me into battle each week — fantasy battle, that is. I’d pick him before Jackson, L.T. or DeAngelo Williams.

8. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers – ADP: 1.11 – PASS
“Pass, pass, pass.” I went into more detail about how painful DeAngelo’s second season as a starter could be when I compared him to Michael Turner in Truth or Fiction. Here’s the short version: a better Jonathan Stewart means fewer carries to go around, a tougher schedule means it’ll be more difficult to score touchdowns and a weaker offensive line means less holes to run through. I’ll “pass” on Williams this season because he’s just not worth the risk.

9. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans – ADP: 1.11 – PICK
Slaton had a solid amount of carries close to the red zone just as Michael Turner did last season, but Slaton was basically the only running back left standing in Houston for most of the season. With bigger backs like Chris Brown and the new guy, Jeremiah Johnson, around, he may lose those touches, but he won’t lose that speed that kept him on the field last season. Slaton was one of the best surprises of 2008, and I’d “pick” him again in 2009.

10. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – ADP: 2.01 – PICK
It’s all a bit of a toss up when it comes to the 49ers. All those words from the coaches about a running-based offense is great, but I want to make sure they’re actually going to put points on the board this season. Gore should tote the rock without too much sharing, and unlike the Rams and Steven Jackson, the 49ers should have enough other weapons to make Gore productive. I’d “pick” him.

11. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 2.04 – PASS
Westy’s been an injury concern for several seasons, but this year, I might actually count that against him. His offseason surgeries and the addition of LeSean McCoy are just enough to make me want to hold off on him this year. I’d take him as a mid-range RB2, but I’ll “pass” here with bigger fish still left in the sea.

12. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants – ADP: 2.05 – PICK
If the word “pick” could sound more intimidating and bulky, I would use it here. Jacobs is a quality pick for the second round. Without Derrick Ward, he should have more yardage than he did last season. Regardless, we know he scores touchdowns. Without Plaxico Burress, one can only hope that the Giants forget how to do anything but run this season.

13. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins – ADP: 2.07 – PICK
Portis took his shots last season and still came out on the other side. I’m not exactly sure how he managed to play through all his injuries, but the man is consistent — one of the most consistent at his position over the years. I like him a tad less this season just because of his workload, even though I don’t think that it will slow his productivity. What does concern me is the team around him coming into this season. Jason Campbell is in his “make or break” year in Washington after all the trade talks this offseason, and there’s talk of Colt Brennan getting a shot before season’s end if Campbell can’t prove his worth. That spells a hard year for Portis, and it’s just enough to tempt me to take Barber instead. Portis still deserves a “pick.”

14. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys – ADP: 2.11 – PICK
The touchdown machine in Dallas runs only for this man. Barber could be in line for more this season if the Cowboys move towards a more run-focused attack. Even if they don’t, the running game has always made Barber productive. Normally a first round back in the parts where I draft (Texas), I see no reason not to make him a “pick.”

15. Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins – ADP: 3.04 – PASS
For being the quarterback in the Wildcat and the “starting” running back for Miami, I expected more from Ronnie Brown last season. By the end of 2008, he was practically worthless. Ricky Williams is still around to demand some carries, and now there is talk of letting Patrick Cobbs get more touches. I just don’t feel Brown here in the second/third round. I like my starting two running backs to be dependable. Sorry, Brown, I’ll “pass.”

16. Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints – ADP: 3.06 – PICK
I’m surprised to see Thomas trending this high in ADP since most rankings project him as a fourth-round acquisition. He’s a quality running back and deserving of the ranking … but really? No. 16 at running back? With the scoreboard the Saints put together and the struggles of Reggie Bush, I don’t expect Thomas to disappoint. He’ll be worth this “pick.”

17. Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – ADP: 3.09 – PICK
Oh, how low the mighty have fallen. Grant was thought of as a top-10 with upside that could make him a top-five last season. Then injury struck. Grant’s still high on my list, and I’ll give him credit for finishing strong in 2008. I’ll “pick” him here and consider him better than the likes of Ronnie Brown.

18. Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – ADP: 3.11 – PASS
This is it! This is Kevin’s year to carry the rock. Can’t you hear the screams right this moment? If Matthew Stafford gets the nod, the Lions are definitely going to be running the ball this season, but I haven’t become a Smith believer just yet. That doesn’t mean he won’t blow up this year, but it does mean I’m willing to take my chances elsewhere. The move to a new style of running offense, away from what Smith is used to, doesn’t make me feel good about his chances this season. “Pass.”

19. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills – ADP: 4.05 – PICK
Suspension or not, Lynch is one of the grinding backs in this league. No. 19 is still a little rich for my tastes with those games missed at the beginning of the season, and Fred Jackson has a great deal more upward mobility as the guy who will start those games and contribute all season. But Lynch is the guy in Buffalo, and with an improved offensive attack — even if their O-line has taken a step back — he’s worthy of a “pick.”

20. Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints – ADP: 4.06 – PASS
He’s a better receiver than a running back, so unless you have a sucker who would trade you a real gem in a package for this circus show, I’d “pass” outside of PPR leagues. I am not convinced he can stay healthy enough to fill the role of a running back, and as a gimmick player, his value is limited. But if he falls into a bargain round, I can’t say I would still refuse him.

21. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos – ADP: 4.10 – PASS
I’m not a believer in the new Denver coach, and I’m not a fan of rookie running backs when they are accompanied by a real pack — and I do mean “pack” — of veterans. Even if Moreno wins the starting job, how much of it will he win? I’d rather take the “wait and see” approach with KnowMo. (Does anyone call him “KnowMo” now? Because I really want to now … I won’t pick him “KnowMo.”)

22. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – ADP: 4.12 – PICK
He didn’t get his shot last season with all the injury trouble and that dastardly Justin Fargas, but with a season under his belt, I’d “pick” him to earn his place among the high-performing rookies from last season. No one likes to fall behind, and McFadden has plenty of ground to make up.

23. Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: 5.02 – PICK
All alone in Tampa Bay with no “Earth” or “Fire” for his “Wind,” Ward should have plenty of opportunities to show why the Giants used him as much as they did last season. Ward is a “pick,” even if he ends up getting a “change of pace” tag and yields red zone chances to Earnest Graham. He’ll earn his time just like he did with Brandon Jacobs.

24. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – ADP: 5.03 – PICK
From top-five to No. 24? Even with rookie Donald Brown breathing down his neck, I have no fear in taking Addai in the third round and beyond. The Colts’ offensive line was pretty terrible last season without Jeff Saturday. A healthy Peyton and a healthy Saturday make for a good Sunday for Addai. He’s a “pick” in my book.

Agree with my picks and passes or disagree? The comments are yours.

Week 16 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders: Championship Edition

At this point, you should be starting your studs. We stopped posting all the week-to-week start posts as a result, but I do have a few thoughts to throw out this week with many of you in championship or at least playoff matches.

In the Cowboy game tonight, I like Tony Romo and the Cowboys wide receivers, and I like Tashard Choice as a desperation play. Marion Barber is questionable since he looked injured and lacked a little power in last week’s game against the Giants.

I wouldn’t bet on Anquan Boldin this week with his injury. The Cardinals have a playoff spot, and I’d worry that they will let Steve Breaston take the start this week to save Boldin for the postseason. Besides, the Cardinals are likely playing in the snow against New England, who is in a must-win situation to keep their playoff hopes alive, and it’s tough to bet against a Belichick who wants to make the playoffs. Even Larry Fitzgerald and Kurt Warner are questionable this week if the weather turns frightful.

If you’ve been riding Matt Cassel through the playoffs, I think it’s safe for you to consider him a lock this week against the Cardinals unless the weather gets really bad. It’s likely you don’t have a better play at quarterback, and if Tarvaris Jackson can tear apart a team through the air, I could probably throw a touchdown against the Cardinals.

Marshawn Lynch looked like a lock to be a must-start this week against the Broncos until he came down with a bad shoulder in practice. I still like him as long as he suits up and starts since coaches have played it up as a minor injury, but if he doesn’t take the field, Fred Jackson becomes a great start as the lone back against the Broncos.

If you need a sneak play at running back, I really like DeShaun Foster as long as Frank Gore sits this week. Watch the injury report, and be prepared to sub him in if you have a questionable guy like Marion Barber this week.

Brett Favre worries me a little this week against the Seahawks. While I’m sure there aren’t many teams that stumbled into the postseason with him at quarterback, Favre’s a dangerous play in your championship game. He’ll have plenty of chances to score against the Seahawks terrible secondary, but with the running game firing on all cylinders, I think the Jets won’t change their game plan.

Shaun Hill is a gem this week. Start him. I almost did this week, but I had Peyton Manning. He did okay for me Thursday night.

I like Matt Ryan, but I question whether he’ll be able to come through on the big stage against the Vikings. If they could handle the Cardinals attack, can the Falcons do it? I wouldn’t want to bet my fantasy season on a rookie in a game like this one.

With Reggie Bush is out, Marques Colston looks like a great start this week against Detroit. He’ll get the targets, and it’s the Lions. The Lions, always in a must-win, might even make it competitive enough to get the Saints firing at full blast.

Don’t stop starting Antonio Bryant.

Brandon Marshall is one heck of a player, but I haven’t seen him getting many opportunities. With no big threat in the running game, the receivers are getting locked up. Teams would rather let Eddie Royal take a few short routes and make plays than let Baby T.O. go off.

That said, I think you still have to start Marshall against a Buffalo team that is almost done, but I like several WR2ish receivers better than Marshall this week when it comes down to who I think generates the points.

I think Torry Holt is the one receiver with a good matchup that I would hope I do not have to start this week in a win-or-go-home game.

Wait, scratch that. It’s probably Lee Evans. Even if Trent Edwards returns, Lee Evans is just not reliable enough in a big week, but you have to start him if you rode him this far. The Denver secondary has been very questionable this season, and they could give up a big play … if the Bills can make one.

I won’t go into tight ends and kickers too much because choosing them on a weekly basis is a risky situation. John Carlson and Jerramy Stevens are two guys I like as reliable options this week, but ride the guy that got you to the playoff unless he’s in a terrible situation.

I hope none of your games come down to a kicker, but if they do, good luck to you.

That’s all I got for this week. Start and sit questions can always be left in the comments or emailed to me through our contact page.

Good luck in the playoffs.

Foolish Thoughts on Week 15: I’m all out of love, so lost without you

It was hard to bring my thoughts together between fits of extreme sobbing after watching all the football games in a very serious, totally masculine way this weekend.

Yes, I lost at Nick’s hands this week, one game away from the championship … in a game where I was “projected” to win by 50 points.

Thank you, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Lee Evans and Brian Westbrook for dropping the ball when I needed you most.

I could blame Peyton Manning for managing only one touchdown against the Lions or Matt Forte for being just gimpy enough after a slight injury to barely crack double digits, but I’m still too happy with both of them this season. Forte was the best pick I made in the draft this year, and Manning reclaimed the title of “The Better Manning” … and, therefore, shoved the lesser Elisha Manning back down a notch, where he belongs.

Going into Monday night’s Eagles-Browns showdown, I needed 35+ points from Brian Westbrook and no-name tight end Steve Heiden, backing up the injured Kellen Winslow for the Browns (and my fantasy team). If Westbrook could get another 30 points against the Browns, maybe Heiden could get me those last critical points by catching a garbage-time touchdown or catching a few escape passes from the not-so-Brady-Quinn-esque Ken Dorsey as he ran for his life. I mean, the Eagles do have a little problem covering tight ends. It’s possible.

Sadly, not only did Westbrook do a whole lot of nothing in this one because Andy Reid obviously reads things I say about him, but Heiden was carted off the field with an injury after catching zero passes for zero yards. As the cart went off the field, so did my season in my primary fantasy league (the one with the biggest trophy).

Losing when you are so close to the prize just leaves a bitter taste in your mouth. As a guy, it’s sort of like hearing that some famous female celebrity is becoming one of those every-man’s-fantasy lesbians and then discovering that her hot hookup partner is this thing.

Now, that’s just disappointing.

But alas, it’s no shocker that the prohibitive favorite loses out in the playoffs. There’s always an Antonio Bryant, a Tarvaris Jackson or a Dominic Rhodes waiting in the wings to blow up the top seeds in the playoffs.

Just look at what the Giants did in the playoffs last season. If you knew who was going to win, we wouldn’t play them.

That’s actually why the NFL is considering canceling the rest of the Detroit Lions’ games. We all know how they are going to go.

Even though Peyton Manning was less than explosive against the Lions on Sunday, Dallas Clark had a huge game for his fantasy owners with 142 yards and a score. It looks like he’s ramping up for fantasy owners in the playoffs.

I guess he really is that awesome…

The one bright spot of this weekend was the Cowboys-Giants game, the drama unfolding on the big Sunday Night Football stage. Just like Plaxico Burress, it seems the Giants are shooting themselves in the leg this season when it matters most, and, as a true Cowboys fan, I was happy to see that the Cowboys showed up to play.

After a week of intense “what did Terrell Owens say now” stories plastered all over ESPN, the Dallas Cowboys were supposed to flop. That didn’t happen and now their hot story of the week seems to have blown up in their hands.

I’m really no T.O. lover. I’m sort of indifferent to him until the press about a guy gets to a roaring buzz — so basically, the same way I feel about Brett Favre.

I think blaming him for any Cowboys loss, regardless of how politically correct his postgame interviews are, is getting old. Especially after the press tour he seems to have gone on to clear his name, it’s hard not to take his side.

Ed Werder doesn’t seem like the kind of journalist who would fabricate a story, but I wonder why he didn’t try to get a quote from T.O. about the words that were being put into the wide receiver’s mouth by an anonymous source before going public with the story.

When he does say something about his teammates or quarterback, T.O.’s never been one to cover it up.

At least the drama is coming to a close for now, and I think that T.O. and Ed Werder will make up.

T.O. reportedly sent Werder a famous Japanese foot massager as a peace offering.

On quarterbacks
Who would have thought that the leading scorers at quarterback in Week 15 would be Matt Cassel, Tarvaris Jackson, David Garrard and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

That, my friends, is magical.

On “Freedom” running backs
Pierre Thomas is legit. Looks like the Saints will be chunking the Deuce this offseason for their hot, new French toy.

Thomas had his way with the Bears defense on Thursday night while the Bears’ running backs struggled to do anything against the Saints. I fear what he can do this week against the Lions.

His only competition is Reggie Bush, who can’t stay on the field for an entire NFL season due to badunkadunk. Besides, Bush’s only a pretend running back anyway.

Since that’s about all I have to say about the French, here’s a message from the “That’s a country?” video collection.

And yes, France is a country.

If you currently own Pierre Thomas, you might be smarter than a fifth grader.

On finding meaning this holiday season
James Jones going off against the Jaguars might be a sign — not for this week or next week but for next season as Donald Driver heads closer and closer to Marvin Harrison-ism.

On the other hand, Dennis Northcutt’s big game means nothing. It’s one of those warmest-body-on-the-field games.

Do you know who Johnnie Lee Higgins is? Big arm + playmaking wide receiver = potential. Keep an eye on a kid like this one in Oakland this offseason. Two big games this year leave the door open for a brighter tomorrow.

Maybe Al Davis will sell the team or give up overhead projector firings. You never know.

On Pro Bowl “picks”
First of all, the Pro Bowl rosters would make for one hell of a fantasy team. I salivated just reading the names of the backups, but Brett Favre? The pick master is one of the league’s best?

As much as I dislike him, where’s the Philip Rivers love? Even the Pro Bowl needs a crier.

On the Wire: Week 15 Pickups and Waiver Wire Grabs for Playoffs

Congrats, fools. If you’re still following pickups at this point in the season, you made the playoffs. I guess there are some of you out there who may be seeking out ways to beef up your keeper or dynasty team for next year but for the large majority of you, playoffs. Good work. I hope our posts helped you make a call at least once, maybe even twice, during your season.

Now that you’re here in the playoff circle and gloating profusely in front of all the less fortunate owners in your league, you probably don’t want to change much. I’ve been shifting the pickups posts to later in the week in large part because I don’t want people to immediately rush out and grab the “so hot right now” player. More than ever, it’s important that you make really informed choices about who you put on your roster and kick to the free agent pool.

The recs I have for this week are slim because you obviously have a good enough team to weather the playoff storm if you made it here. You don’t want to drop your studs for a fluke of a wide receiver. These guys are options if one of your backups is worthless or injured — or maybe if you lost Peyton Hillis, Joseph Addai or Frank Gore this week. If they’re still available on the waiver wire, they’re some of the only players I could see being able to provide good numbers for you in the playoffs.

Antonio Bryant, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers — I still haven’t quite decided whether he is the Britney Spears to Jeff Garcia’s Kevin Federline, but Bryant had a huge, two-touchdown performance last Monday night. I’m not pegging him as a superstar because the Bucs like to run the ball all day, but Bryant has as good of matchups as anyone in the next two weeks — Atlanta and San Diego. Unfortunately, you might have to back off of him in Week 17 as he plays the Raiders and is likely to be covered by Nnamdi “Not Going to Catch Anything” Asomugha. Don’t trust him as more than a low-end WR2 or WR3, but Bryant could be worth a plug in the playoffs.

Davone Bess, WR Miami Dolphins — Yes, Bess makes for a strong WR3 start these next few weeks as the Dolphins face the 49ers, Chiefs and Jets. He’s been the top receiver on offense since the departure of Greg Camarillo, and he’s more reliable than Ted Ginn Jr. One can only hope that that reliability translates into his use in the red zone. I’d only trust him as a WR3, but with the juicy matchups, he could surprise up to the level of a quality WR2.

Pierre Thomas, RB New Orleans Saints — The little Frenchmen looks to be blowing up much like his predecessor, Aaron Stecker, did on the Saints last season during the fantasy football playoffs. The Saints end the season with the Bears, Lions and Panthers, so there’s plenty of opportunity there for Thomas to succeed. Unfortunately, a sort of returning Reggie Bush and sort of suspended Deuce McAllister make it hard to know what the Saints will do in the running game. If there was one to start and hope for the best though, it’d be Pierre. Oui, oui. Thomas is a low-end RB2 this week against the Bears but should be one hell of a RB2 during Week 16 against the Lions.

DeShaun Foster, RB San Francisco 49ers — You thought Foster was a name you could forget? Well, for the most part, it is, but he’s also the backup to Frank Gore. If Gore sits out after being carted off with that ankle injury in Week 14, Foster would get the most carries at Miami. Now, a slower, veteran running back is not who you want to be starting against a strong run defense like Miami during your playoffs, but you might consider picking up Foster just in case he also gets the call in Week 16, against a St. Louis team is just thankful not to be the Lions. No recommendation for foster this week, but consider stashing him to keep him from the competition and for his potential in Week 16 if you don’t have a solid RB option that week.

Tashard Choice, RB Dallas Cowboys — There’s not an easy day in sight with the Giants and the Ravens coming into Big D these next two weeks. Choice would also suffer a drop in value if Marion Barber returned this week or next week, which is very likely. But, regardless of the matchups, if Choice can run that well against the Steelers, he shouldn’t be shut down by the Giants, Ravens or Eagles these next three weeks. Watch the news about Marion Barber before you burn a decent roster spot for him. Of course, if you own Marion Barber, you should already have choice on your roster. If you don’t, slap yourself and pick him up. For everyone else, take a long, hard look at your roster, and if someone on there won’t be starting for you in the playoffs, swap them out for choice. I’d recommend him as a low-end RB2 or flex with a great deal of upside.

Tatum Bell and Selvin Young, RB Denver Broncos — Now that Peyton Hillis is done for the season, Shanahan is down to Tatum Bell and Selvin Young. Young’s never fully returned from the hamstring injury he suffered earlier in the season, and I’d have my doubts about him moving forward. Tatum Bell is still the same ol’ Bell. Neither player jumps off the page, but their playoff schedule does — Carolina, Buffalo and San Diego. Even though the Broncos will continue to pass first, all these upcoming defenses are around the middle of the league and, besides San Diego, show more weakness against the run than the pass. While Young is obviously more talented, it’s hard to recommend him when he can’t seem to stay on the field long enough to score. I’d conservatively recommend picking up Tatum Bell first and plugging him in as a weak RB2 or flex play. Very weak.

Cadillac Williams (a.k.a. Carnell Williams), RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — A touchdown vulture who could see more carries as the season goes on or if Warrick Dunn suffers another injury? That’s potential. Make sure you own Caddy if you have Dunn right now. He may even be worth a start over a full-time stud with games against Atlanta, San Diego and Oakland. A Raiders team with nothing to play for in Week 17 could make for a very lucrative Week 17, but unless his situation changes, Caddy will remain a low RB2 or RB3/flex start. I’d rather have a guy that starts.

Shaun Hill, QB San Francisco 49ers — He’s been a solid start since he replaced JTO, and as much as I liked JTO before he became “Mr. Turnover,” I like Shaun Hill more. Hill has one of the best schedules for any quarterback as he faces the Miami, St. Louis and Washington to end the season. Unlike many playoff-bound starters, he probably won’t see a single sit during these last few weeks either. Expect a hard-fought and less-than-explosive game this week against the sack-happy Dolphins to be followed by a huge day at St. Louis in Week 16. If you need him in Week 17, he’s likely to be facing a Washington squad that’s out of the playoffs and done caring about it.

Seneca Wallace, QB Seattle Seahawks — Wallace has the potential to put up some numbers against the Rams, Jets and Cardinals these next three weeks. My gut is telling me that Matt Hasselbeck doesn’t get rushed back into the lineup with the season over and his back pain. As long as Deion Branch, who should also be owned in most leagues by now, is on the field, Wallace has potential as a sneaky play for a couple of touchdowns and 200+ yards. Wallace is a low, low, low-end start simply because he’s as likely to bust as bang, but if you need a quarterback during the playoffs, like slapping yourself to feel alive or have faith that a desperation play will save you, go for it. (As always, if you can’t decide whether to start Wallace over your stud/starter, you can always comment or contact us. There are certain starters that I would rank Wallace above these next three weeks.)

Steve Heiden, TE Cleveland Browns — While he won’t be spectacular, Ken Dorsey is definitely going to need his help if Dorsey survives the next three weeks. As long as he doesn’t spend all his time blocking, I like Heiden’s chances for a solid handful of points. If you made it to the playoffs, I suspect that you already have a decent tight end on your roster unless you are unfortunate enough to be a Kellen Winslow owner like me. Heiden is a low-end starting option against the Eagles, who have issues covering tight ends, and the Bengals, but a terrible option in Week 17 against the Steelers.

Indianapolis Colts D/ST — The Colts defense has Bob Sanders back, which always raises their stock, but they also have one of the easiest playoffs schedules out there as long as you finish in Week 16, not Week 17. In Week 15, they face the Lions. In Week 16, they face a very stick-a-fork-in-them Jaguars squad. In Week 17, the Titans actually pose a challenge, but at least you know that the Colts offense will be fired up for that one. A defense focusing on strong cornerbacks is always a nice thing to have on your fantasy squad, but the Colts should be especially good these next two weeks after coming off two straight 15+ point fantasy weeks. They are a must start defense these next two weeks.

Droppables: Anyone you won’t start in the next three weeks. Purge away unless you’re in a dynasty/keeper league.

Week 13 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

A lot of the action already went down on Thursday, but there are still a few sneaky starts and player concerns this week. Here are a few players that might help or hurt you in staking your claim for a playoff spot on this fine Sunday.

Hot Hands

Chad Pennington, QB Dolphins vs. Rams — It’s sort of a no-brainer that even a noodle arm can go big against the Rams. As long as Davone Bess can fill the gap left by Greg Camarillo, I think Pennington could be in for a modest but respectable fantasy performance in St. Louis.

Ronnie Brown, RB Dolphins vs. Rams – Of course, Pennington’s main competition for points will be this man right here. Hopefully, Brown shares the love and doesn’t gobble up all the touchdown runs and touchdown passes. One can only hope. Maybe he’ll even share with Ricky Williams. Ricky loves to pass, especially in circles and while listening to Dave Matthews Band.

Lee Evans, WR Bills vs. 49ers — Barring a perfect storm, this week could be your best chance to get something out of Lee Evans before he gets snowed in for the rest of the season. Trent Edwards found his game last week, and hopefully, Evans can expose the 49ers’ secondary just as Terrell Owens did last week.

Bernard Berrian, WR Vikings vs. Bears — If Berrian was going to heat up again down the stretch, this game would be the part where the water starts to steam. As long as Gus Frerotte would like to hold up his end of the bargain, I’m sure that Berrian would love to put a hurting on his former team.

Dustin Keller, TE Jets vs. Broncos — Since is 100+ yard game in Week 10, Keller’s seen at least six targets in every game. I like that streak and his chances against a QB-friendly Broncos defense that may occasionally shut down one of Brett Favre’s wide receivers throughout the day.

Baltimore Ravens D/ST vs. Bengals — Ryan Fitzpatrick sees this coming, and there is nothing he can do about it.

Bubble Boys

David Garrard, QB Jaguars vs. Texans — When Garrard matched up against Houston earlier this season, he blew up the Texans’ defense with a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown in his second-best fantasy performance of the season. Can I have a repeat?

Matt Cassel, QB Patriots vs. Steelers — Hot streak or brown streak, the Steelers are the kind of defense that makes the cookie crumble. I always wanted to call Cassel a cookie. Done.

Larry Johnson, RB Chiefs vs. Raiders — He was a complete bust last time he faced the Raiders. Can you trust him this time around? The offense is better, but is L.J.? The matchup is too good to sit him, but I definitely have my concerns going into this week.

Ted Ginn Jr., WR Dolphins vs. Rams — How much did Camarillo distract defenses and allow Ginn to get open for the big play? We’ll see on Sunday, but Ginn’s still worth a chance to prove his worth.

Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST vs. Texans – Just questionable enough not to start against a Texans team looking to get back the Jags for what they did to them in Week 4. It’s likely that both teams could look like they forgot to play defense.

Cold Shoulders

Jason Campbell, QB Redskins vs. Giants — Campbell’s already having dizzy spells and hot flashes thinking about the first matchup with the Giants this season. The past few weeks haven’t been impressive enough for us to overlook that day either. You’ll have to take the good with the bad this week with Campbell and hope for at least one good touchdown pass.

Reggie Bush, RB Saints vs. Buccaneers — Even if Bush returns, this matchup is one of those where you’d probably be better off seeing what Bush can do before you rely on him to win a game for you. Only play Bush if he starts and if you have no more reliable options. Bush might spent more time on the sidelines than in the game.

Willie Parker, RB Steelers vs. Patriots — The Pats can stop the run, and Parker is in no shape to amaze us this week.

Steve Smith, WR Panthers vs. Packers – After a huge game last week, Smith is due for a cooling off against a top-rated pass defense. The Packers defense is bound to look for retribution after what the Saints did to them, and Delhomme could struggle.

Dwayne Bowe, WR Chiefs vs. Raiders — Nnamdi Asomugha would like to give you a heads up that Bowe won’t be open all day. Thanks for your understanding.

Chris Cooley, TE Redskins vs. Giants – Cooley, just like the rest of the Redskins, didn’t have a good showing when he faced the Giants in the season opener. If Campbell can’t make it happen, Cooley can’t either. He’s likely to have more blocking duties than usual this week.

San Diego Chargers D/ST vs. Falcons — On paper, this game looked like a slaughter at the beginning of the season. Now, I think you should move away from the Chargers D/ST. Chargers defense without Shawne Merriman is more dangerous than you would expect.

A Fool and His Money in Week 11

It’s go time. Once again, a ‘$’ marks all of Nick’s locks of the week while a ‘#’ marks all of Chadam’s locks.

Thursday Night Football: New York Jets at New England Patriots

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Jets (+3) over PATRIOTS
Nick Takes: PATRIOTS (-3) over Jets

In taking the Jets, Chadam says: I’ll admit, I’m sucked in to this Mangini-Belichick rivalry — if only Tom Brady were here to help run up the score. I like how the Jets sign Ty Law, who’s probably old enough to have a son that’s playing in the NFL, just to gain some knowledge of New England game plans. At least, they aren’t REALLY planning on starting Ty Law, right?

In taking the Patriots, Nick says: Brett Favre has not improved within the Jets system this year. Matt Cassel has improved within the Patriots system this year. I think this game will come down to Favre having to make some plays, and the Patriots defense will step up to stop him.

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Lions (+14.5) over PANTHERS
Nick Takes: PANTHERS (-14.5) over Lions

In taking the Lions, Chadam says: I really like the Panthers, but that is one helluva spread. There’s no way the Lions win a game on the road, but it had better be a damn good team for me to lay more than two touchdowns. Carolina isn’t there for me… yet.

In taking the Panthers, Nick says: I hate giving up 14.5 points to anyone. I hate it. But there is no way I could possibly pick the Lions, who are playing Daunte Culpepper and Drew Stanton at QB. What am I supposed to do? Talk myself into them? I’ll go with this: Jake Delhomme and the Panthers played horribly last week, so we can expect a bounce back game in which they put up a ton of points. That is how I justify giving up 14.5 points.

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: FALCONS (-5.5) over Broncos
Nick Takes: Broncos (+5.5) over FALCONS

In taking the Falcons, Chadam says: I miss the good old days when people thought the Falcons sucked. They would’ve been seven-point underdogs. This pick is a lot harder now. I’m betting the Falcons will get a few more stops than Denver does. We’ll see how that plays out.

In taking the Broncos, Nick says: I know the Falcons are undefeated at home and playing well, but something in my gut is telling me to take the Broncos in this one. I want to pick against the Broncos for what they did to me earlier this season, but at least they spoiled Miss Quinn’s debut last week.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Texans (+8.5) over COLTS
Nick Takes: COLTS (-8.5) over Texans

In taking the Texans, Chadam says: At least with Sage behind center, we might suck hard enough to get a good draft pick. Sigh.

In taking the Colts, Nick says: This is an intriguing matchup. The Texans should have won earlier this year against the Colts, but Sage Rosenfels unraveled to give the game away. Sage is back to being a starter, but after last week’s performance, I doubt he has recovered from what happened in the last Colts game. Indy has been winning ugly the past few weeks, but I think this will be a breakout game for them.

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Raiders (+10.5) over DOLPHINS
Nick Takes: DOLPHINS (-10.5) over Raiders

In taking the Raiders, Chadam says: I don’t really trust the Dolphin’s ability to cover big spreads. Besides, this feels like a week in which the Raiders will bust out their awesome defense and turn this game into a 10-7 contest that’s useless for fantasy purposes.

In taking the Dolphins, Nick says: What a dysfunctional organization. I’ll just stick with the usual: the Raiders suck, their owner sucks, their coach sucks, their top draft picks suck, and, last but not least, their fans suck. Go Ricky Williams and the Dolphins!

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: BUCS (-4) over Vikings
Nick Takes: Vikings (+4) over BUCS

In taking the Bucs, Chadam says: This is a coin-flip game, so I’ll go with the better defense.

In taking the Vikings, Nick says: I think the Vikings might have found something within themselves in the comeback win against the Packers last week. Let’s see if it carries over. It’s tough to pick against Purple Jesus.

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: CHIEFS (+5) over Saints
Nick Takes: Saints (-5) over CHIEFS

In taking the Chiefs, Chadam says: To think, one month ago, this would’ve been a no-brainer. While I think the Chiefs will play well at home, the Saints will roll if Reggie Bush plays.

In taking the Saints, Nick says: The Chiefs have remained surprisingly competitive the past few weeks and covered the spread the past three. With that said, I’m still taking the Saints. I told you to expect big games from Marques Colston because I traded him in fantasy football, and look what happened.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals

Fools Take: Eagles (-9.5) over BENGALS $

In taking the Eagles, Nick says: Did anyone else hear Ocho Cinco say he thinks the Bengals can finish 8-8? If he had a reality show I would watch it just to see if we are living on the same planet. Ryan Fitzpatrick may be from Harvard, but he is going to have a lot of trouble dealing with Jim Johnson and all his crazy blitzes. The Eagles need this one to stay in the playoff hunt.

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: GIANTS (-6.5) over Ravens
Nick Takes: Ravens (+6.5) over GIANTS

In taking the Giants, Chadam says: This matchup will be the first game where I’m not sure the Giants are heavily favored. Now that the creampuff section of their schedule is over, I’m interested to see how they hold up against another great defense.

In taking the Ravens, Nick says: Both these teams are looking really good right now, but the Ravens have been destroying teams as of late. Both teams have solid defenses, potent running games and fearless quarterbacks, albeit one is fearless because he is a rookie and doesn’t know any better. This matchup is the type of game the Baltimore defense loves. I’m taking the points in this one.

San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Fools Take: STEELERS (-4.5) over Chargers #

In taking the Steelers, Nick says: I don’t like either team in this game. The Steelers have lost two of their last three, and the Chargers are hanging on by the skin on their teeth. Normally, I would take the points in a game like this one, but I think the Steelers have the better defense and at least the ability to turn this game into a blow out.

In choosing the Steelers as a lock, Chadam says: If this was 2006, I might be more worried, but 2008′s Tomlinson and Co. does not scare me one bit.

Tennessee Titans over Jacksonville Jaguars

Fools Take: Titans (-3) over JAGS $ #

In taking the Titans, Nick says: The Titans are getting no respect from the odds makers. I know the Jags looked “good” last week against a Daunte Culpepper led Lions team, but come on. This is the same team that got beat by the Bengals two weeks ago. I haven’t forgotten that.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Fools Take: Cardinals (-2.5) over SEAHAWKS #

In taking the Cardinals, Nick says: Will Hasselbeck make all the Seahawks’ problems disappear? I don’t think so. Kurt Warner, on the other hand, has made everyone forget that Matt Leinart is waiting in the wings. Warner is a passing machine in the Cardinals’ offense and will continue to be even more of a threat with Hightower catching out of the backfield.

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Fools Take: 49ERS (-6) over Rams

In taking the 49ers, Nick says: The 49ers didn’t win last week, but they showed some fight. That’s good enough for me to take them over the Rams. Do you remember a few weeks ago when everybody was claiming Jim Haslett saved their season? They were wrong.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: PACKERS (-4) over Bears
Nick Takes: Bears (+4) over PACKERS

In taking the Packers, Chadam says: I still think that the Pack will win this division. Their defense is getting a little healthier — well, at least their secondary. Besides, betting on Rex Grossman is bad for your health. [Note from Jacob: Kyle Orton is currently listed as probable for this game.]

In taking the Bears, Nick says: It would be nice to know Orton’s status for this game. I’m going to assume he is playing. The Packers have struggled lately and the Bears have lost a few close games. I’m taking the points in what I expect to be a close, division rivalry game.

Sunday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-2) over REDSKINS
Nick Takes: REDSKINS (+2) over Cowboys

In taking the Cowboys, Chadam says: My fantasy hopes rest on Tony Romo, so I might as well double down, right?

In taking the Redskins, Nick says: I don’t care if Romo is back or not. The Redskins have already beaten them at Dallas, and I’m taking the Redskins with points in a no-brainer. Not quite a lock, but without a doubt, you have to take the Redskins at home with points.

Monday Night Football: Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Browns (+4.5) over BILLS
Nick Takes: BILLS (-4.5) over Browns

In taking the Browns, Chadam says: I’m torn between betting against Coach Romeo and betting against crappy Trent Edwards. Let’s take the points and see where that gets us.

In taking the Bills, Nick says: The Bills are unraveling like I said they would a few weeks ago, but the Browns… “I cannot play with them; I cannot win with them, cannot coach with them, can’t do it.” I hate Brady Quinn, and I hate Braylon Edwards after wasting my first round pick on him in fantasy football. Screw you, Cleveland.

Nick’s Lock ($): Eagles (-9.5) over BENGALS, Titans (-3) over JAGS

Chadam’s Locks (#): STEELERS (-4.5) over Chargers, Titans (-3) over JAGS, Cardinals (-2.5) over SEAHAWKS

Last Week:

Nick: 10-3

Current Standings after Week 10:

Nick: 76-62-2
Nick’s Locks: 2-1

A Fool and His Money in Week 8

Editor’s Note: This week might be the lowest point in the life de Chadam. I’m pretty sure I walked in on him and Terrell Owens having a group cry. He’s really gone off the deep end. If you like what he puts out there this week or just want to kick a man while he’s down, drop him a line in the comments. Maybe with a little public interaction and a slow clap…we can save him.

Nick and I did not fare well in Week 7 as we posted records of 6-8 and 5-9 respectively. Due to my especially crappy picks, my season record has fallen below .500 for the first time this year. Now, Nick is four games ahead of me.

This week, I am going to mix things up a little by choosing the underdog unless I have a compelling reason not to do so.

On to the picks…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Chadam Takes: Buccaneers (+1) over COWBOYS
With no Romo, I don’t see how this one is even close. I think the Bucs win by at least 10 points. This game is my favorite pick of the week.

Nick Takes: Buccaneers (+1) over COWBOYS
This line surprised me. I know the Cowboys are at home, and Johnson will be better than he was last week. (He has no other choice really.) But the Bucs have looked legit, and Garcia has been nice and efficient with the ball in the past two weeks. I like the Bucs to win this game straight up.

St. Louis Rams at New England Patriots

Chadam Takes: Rams (+7.5) over PATRIOTS
I have no expectations for this game. Either team could win by 30, and it wouldn’t shock me — nor would a game that’s close every minute of the way.

Nick Takes: Rams (+7.5) over PATRIOTS
I don’t know about you, but I loved watching the Patriots embarrass the Broncos on Monday night. The Rams have looked surprisingly good the past two weeks. There’s no way the Patriots pull off two ass whoopings back-to-back.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

Chadam Takes: Falcons (+9) over EAGLES
Philly’s stock has dropped the last couple weeks, huh? Whatever the over/under for combined rushing yards between Turner and Westbrook is, I’ll be taking the over. My guess is 300 yards.

Nick Takes: Falcons (+9) over EAGLES
Let’s see. The Falcons beat the Bears, and the Bears beat the Eagles. Wow, this is easy! Seriously, the Falcons keep overachieving this season, and the Eagles aren’t showing the progress good teams make during the season. I like the Eagles to win, but I just can’t expect them to win by double digits.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets

Chadam Takes: Chiefs (+13) over JETS
Special thanks go to Jerricho Cotchery for putting up the elusive “1 receptions, 0 yards” line on Sunday. Way to justify my late third-round pick for you.

Nick Takes: Chiefs (+13) over JETS
Just going with my gut on this one. I think the Jets could easily rebound and beat the Chiefs like Larry Johnson beats women at the club, but I don’t like giving up 13 points, especially when I’m not a believer in the Jets in the first place. Side note: Congrats to Brett Favre for calling Romo and telling him to play through the pain. That way, when Romo doesn’t play, he looks like a big pansy. I heard Jessica Simpson is also complaining that he is not performing through the pain. Romo couldn’t even drive the minivan home last night.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Chadam Takes: Bills (-2) over DOLPHINS
I like these Bills. They’re very quietly 5-1 and have a decent if not favorable schedule the rest of the way. They play twice against the other AFC East teams (Jets, Pats and Dolphins), and their other four games are against the Broncos, Chiefs, Browns and 49ers. They look like a strong bet to finish with double-digit wins.

Nick Takes: Bills (-2) over DOLPHINS
I still haven’t gotten to see any Bills’ game down here in Texas. That’s probably why I keep picking against them. But they’ve done enough to earn my respect, and I will now show that respect by picking them to win against a team they should win against. You better not betray me, Bills!

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

Chadam Takes: RAVENS (-7) over Raiders
The Raiders are the worst kind of crappy team. Every once in a while, they’ll wake up and upset a better team, and Oakland happens to do it with their defense so that there is no fantasy value in a game where Oakland brings it. (Thanks again, Jerricho.)

Nick Takes: RAVENS (-7) over Raiders
The Ravens’ defense should completely shut down the Raiders. As long as Joe Flacco can make a few plays, the Ravens will handle this team just as they handled the Dolphins a week ago.

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions

Chadam Takes: LIONS (+7.5) over Redskins
Why the hell not?

Nick Takes: LIONS (+7.5) over Redskins
I expect the Redskins to dominate and win, but every Redskins game except their Week 1 loss to the Giants has been decided by 7 points or less. They play everyone close, and for that reason, I’m taking the points. Does anybody else think the Lions will go winless? Miami was close last year, but even the 2007 Dolphins looked better than this Detroit team. Could both the Bengals and the Lions go winless? That would be amazing.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Chadam Takes: Cardinals (+4.5) over PANTHERS
After their first two games, which were decided by two and three points, the Panthers’ next five were double-digit victories, and the last four have been by 15 points or more. Just saying, when they show up, they look like Super Bowl contenders; otherwise, they’re the Chiefs. I want to see them shut down this offense.

Nick Takes: PANTHERS (-4.5) over Cardinals
The Panthers have been mauling people at home. They have outscored their opponents 108-33 at home this year. Add in the fact that Arizona has to fly to the East coast for a 1 p.m. game, and I don’t see the Panthers letting this one slip away.

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints at LONDON
(You sound like you’re from ENG-land!)

Chadam Takes: SAINTS (+3.5) over Chargers
I guess Reggie gets to stay at home, eat Subway and roll around with Kim K. What a life.

Nick Takes: SAINTS (+3.5) over Chargers
I no longer know what to expect from the Chargers. The Saints will be without Reggie Bush, but I’m not sure it will matter much. The Saints are better when Deuce gets more touches anyway. I’ll take the points because I’m not sure whom to pick in this game. Both have the potential to blow teams out and get blown out.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Chadam Takes: TEXANS (-10) over Bengals
Go Texans! It’s not often they’re favored by double digits, but I believe.

Nick Takes: TEXANS (-10) over Bengals
It is very hard for me to pick the Texans to win by double digits against anyone. They couldn’t even beat the Lions by ten points last week. That being said, they are gaining confidence, and even their weak secondary should be able to hold down Fitzpatrick. I don’t even know his first name, and it’s not even worth looking up. — Ed. Note: It’s Ryan. Ryan Fitzpatrick. And now that you said that, he’ll probably make you remember it.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

Chadam Takes: Browns (+7) over JAGS
I’ll give the Cleveland steamers some love; even though they lost last week’s game against the Redskins, their defense stepped up for the second game in a row. I’m not sure the Browns will win, but I’ll bet that they cover.

Nick Takes: JAGS (-7) over Browns
I think the Jags are getting better every week. Yes, they are 3-3, but they have played a pretty tough schedule so far (Titans, Bills, Colts, Texans, Steelers and Broncos). It’s about to get easier as they play the Browns, Bengals and Lions in the next three games. The Browns don’t look like they are getting better anytime soon. Plus, the Jags are at home and coming off a bye week. Tough break, Cleveland.

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers

Chadam Takes: STEELERS (-3) over Giants
These teams are pretty equal — great pass rushing, above-average run game and solid passing game — but I don’t like betting against the Steelers at home unless I have a good reason for doing so.

Nick Takes: Giants (+3) over STEELERS
I was expecting the Giants to blow out the 49ers last week, and they didn’t quite do it. The Steelers keep winning ugly. Something in my gut says to take the Giants in this one. I don’t know why. This one is a game I want to watch.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Chadam Takes: Seahawks (+4.5) over 49ERS
Whenever I see a spread of 4.5 points, I think it’s Vegas’ way of throwing their hands in the air.

Nick Takes: 49ERS (-4.5) over Seahawks
There is not a team I want to watch less than the Seahawks. They are so worthless they should never be on TV again. They are the equivalent of a WNBA team. I wonder why they still exist and who is actually paying to watch them play. I would rather read a book than watch the Seahawks play. I would rather watch The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 3 than a Seattle game. I would rather eat a salad than watch Seneca Wallace try to play QB. I would rather go buy hair gel with Jacob than watch the Seahawks. Okay, that last one might not be true. — Ed. Note: I was going to provide a witty quip here in response to Nick’s attack on my use of hair gel, but I think Jason says it best. Although I don’t agree with all of Jason’s tenets of hair styling, I’ll consider it payback if Nick just watches it. Excellent.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Chadam Takes: TITANS (-4) over Colts
The Titans are good. Tennessee should be giving a touchdown. I think Vegas still charges a “Peyton tax.” Peyton Manning and the Colts are so popular that Vegas gives the Colts a few more points than they deserve because of the number of people that take the Colts no matter the line. This effect could also be seen with the Patriots last year.

Nick Takes: TITANS (-4) over Colts
I’m not even mad at the Colts anymore. I’m just disappointed. It’s always worse when your parents are disappointed because you feel like you let them down. Peyton Manning has personally let me down. The Titans, on the other hand, were the only team to step up for me this weekend on all the games that I thought were locks. Thank you, Titans. You’re like the team I never had.

Last Week:

Chadam: 5-9
Nick: 6-8

Current Standings after Week 7:

Chadam: 48-49-2
Nick: 52-45-2
Simmons: 52-47-3

A Fool and His Money in Week 7

This week, I wanted to educate you on two of my favorite types of bets, the parlay and the progressive parlay. With these two wagers, you can arm yourself with the tools necessary to lose money like Chadam and I do. Excited?

My Hard-Earned Winnings
Creative Commons License photo credit: locusolus

A parlay is when you combine several point-spread wagers into one bet. If you pick all the games correctly, you receive a big payout, but if any one of the teams loses, you lose your entire bet.

There is a very high risk in this bet, but it also has a high reward. For example, if you think the Titans, Colts and Jets are all going to cover the spread, you could make three $10 individual bets on each team. If they all win, you win $28.56 in profits ($9.52 on each).

If you bet $30 on a parlay (+644) for those three teams, and they won, you would win $64.42 profit. At the same time, if one team lost you would lose all $30 in the parlay, but you would still make $9 profit from the three individual bets.

You can do a parlay for any amount of game lines you want, but be cautious. Pick too many, and it’s a sucker bet.

A progressive parlay is similar to a parlay but with different odds for how many games you correctly choose. For example, a four-team progressive parlay may pay (+400) if you correctly choose all four games and pay (+100) if you choose three of the four correctly. You have a little room for error in your picks.

The reward for choosing all the games correctly is lower than a parlay payout, but you still have a chance of winning money even if you make one wrong pick.

Progressive parlays change depending on how many games there are. The more teams in the progressive parlay, the more incorrect picks you can make and still win money — Chadam loves these bets.

Chadam had so many lines he loved this week, he couldn’t choose just one to endorse as his favorite. He’s pimping a three-team, seven-point teaser with the Titans (-0.5), Saints (+4) and Jets (+4). Buyer beware.

I like the Colts, Chargers and Jets in a three-team parlay. I might include the Titans and make it progressive…or just make both bets.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants

Chadam Takes: 49ers (+10) over GIANTS
This is my mini-upset of the week, and if Elisha’s chest injury is worse than Coughlin has let on, then I’ll be looking pretty good.

Nick Takes: GIANTS (-10) over 49ers
So what if Giants lost to the Browns last week? The Giants will bounce back at home. I have no respect for Mike Martz, and I think the 49ers are overrated. That’s right, a 2-4 team is overrated. They have only beaten the Lions and the Seahawks while Seattle was injured. The 49ers won’t get more than five wins this season. Boom tho.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Chadam Takes: Steelers (-9.5) over BENGALS
If I were Fitzpatrick, I would be calling in sick to work this weekend. They’ll eventually win a game, just not this one.

Nick Takes: Steelers (-9.5) over BENGALS
I think I got shafted last week because I picked the Bengals thinking they had Carson Palmer. This week, I know they don’t have him, just like I know the Bengals don’t have a chance in this one.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

Chadam Takes: Titans (-7.5) over CHIEFS
I couldn’t believe it when coach Herm Edwards said the Chiefs defense looked amazing last week. Wait, they were on bye? And they were playing against the Chiefs offense? Well, that explains everything.

Nick Takes: Titans (-7.5) over CHIEFS
All Chiefs’ players are going to be disappointed because they weren’t traded away before the trade deadline this past Tuesday. They are going to have no motivation to play hard, especially against a team like the Titans. Consider this game the rent money special.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Chadam Takes: BEARS (-3) over Vikings
Yeah, I’ve decided that these two teams are the exact same, like clones of each other. Let’s roll with the home team on this one and see where it takes us.

Nick Takes: BEARS (-3) over Vikings
I’m not sure what to think about these teams after Chicago losing to Atlanta and the Vikings barely beating the Lions. Frerotte has played well so far, but I still don’t trust him.

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills

Chadam Takes: BILLS (+1) over Chargers
But only because I have to cheer for Trent Edwards for a month in a league where I lost Romo.

Nick Takes: Chargers (-1) over BILLS
Move over L.T., the Chargers’ offense now revolves around Philip Rivers. Rivers is getting it done, and I expect it to continue against the soon-to-be-exposed Bills.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Chadam Takes: Saints (-3) over PANTHERS
It’s like these two teams didn’t even play games last week. What a line. I have a feeling Nick and I will be selling kidneys to finance our wagering on this one.

Nick Takes: Saints (+3) over PANTHERS
The Panthers’ confidence has to be a little shaken after the whooping the Bucs put on them. I expect the Saints to win if they run McAllister and keep dumping off to Bush in short screen passes. If they stick with that formula, I think they can take the division.

Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams

Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-7) over RAMS
The Rams took out Washington with a lucky fumble return and some field goals. I’m willing to bet that Brad “The Human Checkdown” Johnson can beat the Rams with Dallas’ new stud, Roy Williams.

Nick Takes: RAMS (+7) over Cowboys
I love seeing the Cowboys exposed the past few weeks, but expecting the Rams to knock off two NFC East teams in a row seems a bit much. I’m going to take the points because I’m not really sure what to expect with Brad Johnson and the depleted secondary of the Cowboys.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Chadam Takes: Ravens (+2.5) over DOLPHINS
The only good thing about Miami is Dexter.

Nick Takes: DOLPHINS (-2.5) over Ravens
It’s going to be tough for Joe Flacco to bounce back from his horrible showing last week against the Colts. I think this rookie has finally hit the wall.

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans

Chadam Takes: TEXANS (-8.5) over Lions
Here’s the answer to last week’s puzzle: Use the first letter of my picks to form a message for Sage. (Ed. Note: Look at Chadam finding creative ways to be vulgar.) A little late, I know, but the Indy loss still stings even after Sunday’s comeback over Miami. As for this week, I’m thinking the Texans will rush four and have the other seven defenders chase Calvin Johnson around now that Roy Williams and Jon Kitna are out of the picture.

Nick Takes: TEXANS (-8.5) over Lions
Did anyone see Dan Orlovsky run out of the back of his own end zone last week and not even realize it? Kids in Pop Warner don’t even make those kinds of mistakes. Expecting the Texans to win by more than a touchdown is tough, but I believe the Lions are that bad.

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders

Chadam Takes: Jets (-3) over RAIDERS
Didn’t the Raiders just get pwned like n00bs by 31 points? I’m finding it really hard to hate on the Jets with these money-in-the-bank lines Vegas is providing.

Nick Takes: Jets (-3) over RAIDERS
I’m not a fan of the Jets, but I love this bet. Maybe the Raiders will play hard for their new coach, but I don’t think it matters. No way the Raiders can stop Thomas Jones and Brett Favre, much less put up any points under the inaccurate arm of JaMarcus Russell.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers

Chadam Takes: Colts (-1.5) over PACKERS
I hate to say it, but Peyton carved up a very good defense last week. I’ll give them the nod in a possible shootout.

Nick Takes: Colts (-1.5) over PACKERS
I am all about the favorites this week. The Colts finally found their offense just like I knew they would. Aaron Rodgers is about to get schooled by one of the premiere QBs in the NFL. Jeez, I’m going to be putting a lot of money down this weekend.

Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins

Chadam Takes: REDSKINS (-7) over Browns
So much for The Zorn Supremacy. I had the stupid Redskins in an Eliminator league. Guess how that worked out. Anyways, I want to see Cleveland look good one more week before I pay them respect.

Nick Takes: REDSKINS (-7) over Browns
This is an interesting matchup because both teams performed the polar opposite of what we expected last week. The Redskins lost to the winless Rams and the Browns knocked off the undefeated reigning Super Bowl champions. I’m sticking with the Redskins because, looking at the stats last week, I determined that they should have won if it wasn’t for all those turnovers — very uncharacteristic of them.

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pacman LeapingChadam Takes: BUCS (-10.5) over Seahawks
Tampa Bay is like an adopted son to me, and they are one preseason favorite of mine that is actually panning out. By the way, I visited Tampa Bay this past weekend for some boozing and baseball. If you get a chance, hit up Mons Venus. Pacman would give it two thumbs up.

Nick Takes: Seahawks (+10.5) over BUCS
I’m guessing the Bucs will be a little cocky after last week and let their guard down. As the Rams showed us, any team in the NFL is capable of winning on any given Sunday…except the Lions.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

Chadam Takes: Broncos (+3) over PATRIOTS
I hope the Broncos blow this game open and look good doing it so Nick will be tempted to wager on them again.

Nick Takes: Broncos (+3) over PATRIOTS
I will finally admit it; the Patriots are worthless without Brady. They just can’t seem to get any offense going. I know Belichick is using running back by committee, but he just needs to pick one so they can get some rhythm and continuity going in that offense. Matt Cassel isn’t going to provide any, so he might as well try out a running back. I think they are capable of winning this game by 10 points, but I just don’t trust them anymore. I’m going to take the points, but the Broncos are still in my doghouse.

Last Week:

Chadam: 7-7
Nick: 7-7

Current Standings after Week 6:

Chadam: 43-40-2
Nick: 46-37-2
Simmons: 44-41-3

A Fool and His Money in Week 6

“Just when I thought I was out…they pull me back in.”

There are some crazily enticing lines this week that are making me open up my wallet again. Thanks, Vegas! Besides, I need to find another way to spend my time after I developed this nasty drinking habit after Sunday’s Texans game…

Dear Sage Rosenfels:

You didn’t look too good on Sunday. In case you’re reading, I left a hidden message for you in the article.

Signed,
The entire city of Houston.

I’ll post the answer to Sage’s hidden message in next week’s picks article, and I think you’ll enjoy it. If you think you know what the answer is, please post your guess in the comments. (The Sage picture linked to in our letter is via Gallo on ESPN. Check his selected pics from this week for more good ones.)

Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Chadam Takes: SAINTS (-7.5) over Raiders
Gotta go with the Saints here, even after their Monday night implosion. I’ll chalk Week 5 up as an off week, but if I were Brees, I would be praying for Colston’s return.

Nick Takes: SAINTS (-7.5) over Raiders
I think it’s absolutely hilarious that Reggie Bush had a great game, but the Saints still lose. After the game, he has to act like he’s not excited. He played great, but the team lost. Haha. The Raiders suck; they will lose this game by at least 10 points.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Chadam Takes: Ravens (+5) over COLTS
Out of the last three games the Colts have played, they have received two wins because the opposing team choked the game away and almost got a third if it wasn’t for Josh Scobee’s clutch kick. I’m really excited to see the Colts finish 7-9 this year, which will be followed with every media outlet passing the torch of “Best Manning QB” to Eli. Wait, you mean it’s already happening?

Nick Takes: COLTS (-5) over Ravens
The Ravens have looked good this season, but I just can’t get myself to trust Joe Flacco. The Colts desperately need a good game at home to build some confidence.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets

Chadam Takes: JETS (-6) over Bengals
Favre, your team’s line is too good to pass up. Thank God the Bengals haven’t had their bye week yet because I really like betting against them.

Nick Takes: Bengals (+6) over JETS
The Bengals are going to pounce on somebody soon, and I’m gambling this week is when it happens.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chadam Takes: BUCCANEERS (-1.5) over Panthers
Under normal circumstances, I would laugh at a team that only managed one touchdown against Denver, but I have no idea what to think of Carolina yet. They’re 4-1, but two of those wins are home games against Atlanta and Kansas City, not exactly world-beaters. Also, the Panthers barely beat San Diego in Week 1. I’ll go with my Bucs on this one.

Nick Takes: Panthers (+1.5) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs need quarterback security badly. The whole team just seems restless and out of sync in my opinion. Getting shutdown by the Broncos defense after the Chiefs destroyed the Broncos in Week 4 is embarrassing.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Chadam Takes: Lions (+13.5) over VIKINGS
Come on, even if you don’t like Detroit, you have to love it when Rod Marinelli gets interviewed: “I’m a living example of what fight is all about,” or “Ever, ever…I love this game too much.” It’s like he’s trying to generate stereotypical football coach quotes, but he learned them from Mike Tyson. And yes, that’s the only reason why I’m taking the Lions.

Nick Takes: Lions (+13.5) over VIKINGS
I fully expect the Vikings to win this game, but I expect the Lions to get enough garbage points on the Vikings secondary to justify taking the points. That is, assuming the Lions’ players are still trying. The trade deadline hasn’t passed yet, so hopefully, they can manage trying for one week more before they officially give up.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Chadam Takes: FALCONS (+3) over Bears
Kyle Orton probably got more ass than normal after playing like Brady last week against Detroit. That said, I’m warming up to the Falcons at home, and the Bears’ wins over the Colts and Lions aren’t impressive given the current play of those two teams.

Nick Takes: Bears (-3) over FALCONS
Both of these teams have been playing surprisingly well. I like the Bears defense a little more in this game though.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

Chadam Takes: TEXANS (-3) over Dolphins
You wonder why fans of tortured teams always wait for the other shoe to drop until the game is over. It’s games like the Colts-Texans match last week. I’m starting to understand what Red Sox fans went through a little more. In case you’re wondering, I’ll be watching the upcoming game with a handle of tequila in case something goes wrong. Speaking of Miami, apparently the only play you need to use to go to the Super Bowl is the direct snap to Ronnie Brown. You’d think that after seeing Miami shock two decent teams by using that play repetitively, the Texans coaching staff would pick up on it and practice defending it…right? My liver hopes so.

Nick Takes: Dolphins (+3) over TEXANS
Last week, I witnessed one of the greatest meltdowns for a professional sports team. The Texans found unthinkable ways to lose that game to the Colts. How can that same team possibly be favored in any game, much less against a team that just beat the Patriots and Chargers in consecutive games?

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins

Chadam Takes: REDSKINS (-13.5) over Rams
Okay, there’s no way I’m betting against the Redskins and the Zorn Supremacy again. They’ve cost me three wins already this year. Are they really a top-three team? That division is awesome. The NFC East might only have five losses all year outside of the division between all four teams. (They only have one through five weeks: Philly to Chicago in Week 4.)

Nick Takes: REDSKINS (-13.5) over Rams
Hail to the Redskins! I’ve been riding shotgun on the Redskins’ bandwagon since before the season started, and I don’t plan on getting off anytime soon — that’s what she said.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Chadam Takes: BRONCOS (-3.5) over Jaguars
Unless Jacksonville traded Garrard for Cutler yesterday and I missed it, Denver should be getting a touchdown at home against the Jags.

Nick Takes: Jaguars (+3.5) over BRONCOS
I’m still pissed at the Broncos, and I am choosing the Jags purely out of spite. Maybe the Jags can find their running game in Denver.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers

Chadam Takes: Eagles (-5.5) over 49ERS
Really? The Eagles are last place in their division? Donovan McNabb hasn’t had a great game since the first week, but I think he’ll get back on track here.

Nick Takes: Eagles (-5.5) over 49ERS
The Eagles are getting dangerously close to panic time. They need this win if they want to keep pace with the other NFC East teams for the two NFC wild-card spots. I’m guessing they find a way to win.

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals

Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-5.5) over CARDINALS
So what happened there, Dallas? I put some blind faith in you by picking you to win without even looking at the spread, and you almost end the Bengals’ quest to go winless? I think Owens and Romo wanted to let Cincinnati win so they could go to the inevitable boat party that Cedric Benson would throw after the game. This line is pretty low; the Cowboys are too talented to put less than 30 on the board.

Nick Takes: Cowboys (-5.5) over CARDINALS
The Cowboys are better than the Cardinals. There’s my analysis on the game. But do the Cowboys have anybody that made the NFL All-’N Sync team? Turns out they are better than the Cardinals in that respect, too.

Nick PRESENTS The 2008 All-’N Sync Team:

After thinking about it, Matt Leinart isn’t Justin Timberlake. J.T. was the leader of the group who famously dated Britney Spears and Cameron Diaz. Hmm…who does that sound like in the NFL? Tony Romo! Romo leads the Cowboys, dated singer Carrie Underwood and currently shacks up with Jessica Simpson. Here are the other members of the All-’N Sync team:

  • Tony Romo A.K.A. Justin Timberlake: For the reasons mentioned above.
  • Matt Leinart A.K.A. J.C. Chasez: He doesn’t lead the group, but he still gets plenty of groupie action.
  • Brady Quinn A.K.A. Lance Bass: Eventually, he will come out of the closet and be on “Dancing with the Stars.”
  • Jared Lorenzen A.K.A. Joey Fatone: He is the fat one of the group and wasn’t even very good as a backup.
  • Jon Kitna A.K.A. Chris Kirkpatrick: Do you realize Jon Kitna is in the fairly exclusive 30,000+ yards passing club? Yeah, most of you didn’t realize Kirkpatrick was in ‘N Sync, and now that you know, you still think he sucks.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Chadam Takes: Packers (+2.5) over SEAHAWKS
Every once in a while, I see a line and think “Did Vegas mean -2.5? Or possibly -12.5?” What a joke. This bet almost seems too good to be true.

Nick Takes: Packers (+2.5) over SEAHAWKS
This spread is a joke, right? The Seahawks shouldn’t be favored against anybody other than the Rams. I’m dropping some serious coin on this game.

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers

Chadam Takes: Patriots (+6) over CHARGERS
Lines like this one make me wonder how good Vegas thinks the Patriots are. To be fair, I have no idea either. I’m interested to see if either team will run direct snaps and hope the other team didn’t learn from its previous game against Miami.

Nick Takes: Patriots (+6) over CHARGERS
The Chargers have been very disappointing. The Patriots have been disappointing, too, but the Patriots have won most of their games while being disappointing. That’s the difference.

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns

Eli Manning "Unstoppable" Ad Courtesy of Citizen Watches (via Sports Illustrated)

Eli Manning "Unstoppable" Ad Courtesy of Citizen Watches (via Sports Illustrated)

Chadam Takes: Giants (-7.5) at BROWNS
Forget Peyton. Elisha is now Archie’s favorite daughter. Poor Cooper. He must have one hell of an inferiority complex. I’ll admit, as long as Elisha is facing the Browns and Seahawks, he’s looking damn good. I would even go so far as to say he’s unstoppable, har har.

Nick Takes: Giants (-7.5) over BROWNS
It’s tough not to pick the Giants right now. They have shown they are very good at picking on the losers of the league. The Browns happen to be one of the losers of the league. You do the math.

Last Week:

Nick: 9-3-1
Chadam: 5-7-1

Current Standings after Week 5:

Chadam: 36-33-2
Nick: 39-30-2
Simmons
: 37-34-3