Brett Favre Retires: What It Means for the Vikings’ Fantasy Values

ESPN reports this morning that Brett Favre plans to retire rather than rejoin the Minnesota Vikings. He managed to keep the Vikings on the hook until training camp before finally dropping the hammer. What a team player. IF and when Brett Favre actually takes the stage and says…for the third time…that he plans to retire, his absence will cut into the value of all the Vikings’ fantasy studs.

ESPN is bringing in the whole cavalry to cover the situation (Oh boy!), but here’s my take on the fantasy impact of losing the man, the myth, the legend, and the bane of offseason news.

Fantasy Impact on Vikings

Favre was the engine that got this offense moving in 2009. Without him, everything grinds to a halt. It remains to be seen how much Tarvaris Jackson can do to get it going again.

Jackson is no Brett Favre. He won’t be as creative with the offense, and I don’t see as many first downs in their future. That means fewer touchdowns for the entire unit, including newly anointed stud wide receiver Sidney Rice and running back Adrian Peterson.

Now there’s a chance that Sage Rosenfels, forgotten quarterback on the Vikings payroll, gets a shot. Many NFL minds lift him up as one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league, worthy of starting on a team somewhere. Despite rumors that he would have been on the roster bubble if Favre had returned, he could win the job as starter.

Last season, prior to Brett Favre’s decision to return to football, I covered the Vikings’ fantasy potential without Favre and argued that Rosenfels might be able to do just as well. With Rosenfels under center, Sidney Rice could still be a champ. Rosenfels has the arm, and he kept Andre Johnson fantasy relevant in stints as the starter in Houston.

But Tarvaris Jackson is a downgrade in the passing game. Unless Jackson has truly found his way as a quarterback and mastered Brad Childress’ offense, I don’t know that you can trust him to keep the Vikings in it this year.

Some would argue that Adrian Peterson stands to benefit from this blow, but I don’t see it. As I mentioned in my arguments for taking Chris Johnson at No. 1, A.P. had 18 touchdowns and 1,383 rushing yards last season with Favre. In 2008, he had just 10 touchdowns and 1,760 yards. Without Favre to open up this offense and keep defenses honest, A.P. will struggle.

And as A.P. gets worked into the ground game after game, there’s also a chance he could be injured. His running style is unforgiving, and he doesn’t avoid contact. A.P. could be this year’s Steven Jackson. He’ll get plenty of yards, I’m sure, but his touchdowns will be way down from his 2009 numbers.

I’d consider both Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew before A.P. with this development, and I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the safe out with one of those two rather than taking a chance on Peterson this season.

For Real?

We’re all assuming that these text messages to teammates and sources within the Vikings administration have it right. We’re taking their word that Favre is done. I’m not sure I buy it just yet. At least not until I hear it from the old man’s mouth.

Favre may just want to get us all writing about him two or three more times this offseason. He could wait out training camp and change his mind. So I’ll believe it in…let’s say Week 2 when Brett Favre isn’t in purple.

Until then, there’s always a chance “the most magical player to ever play the game” (Seriously, Hoge?) returns for a final campaign. I, for one, have made peace with the fact that he is going to play until 2025.

Whether you think Favre is really done or not, there’s one thing we can all agree on, he is one helluva drama queen.

Brett Favre stays retired: What Good are Favre-less Vikings

Brett Favre isn’t going to save the Purple People Eaters and their Purple Jesus. So what? Favre wasn’t going to have a large fantasy impact on the team this season anyway. To prove my point, let’s take a look at all the purple players affected in this one.

Adrian Peterson, RB
Well, it would have been nice for Brett Favre to come in and scare defenses away from stacking the box against ol’ “All Day,” but the scare would have come at a price. Favre would have turned the Vikings into more of a passing team — taking away a few of Peterson’s opportunities. In the past, A.P.’s proven to be one of the running backs in the NFL that needs a fair amount of carries to get going each game at his full potential, and any reduction in carries might have been detrimental to his production over the course of the season.

Inevitably, Favre would have turned the ball over more as well, which would take away some of the drives Peterson might have scored on with a more conservative quarterback — read: not a gunslinger — calling the shots. Peterson fumbled enough last season on his own. He doesn’t need another player on the team to kill more drives.

It’s hard to determine how much of a trade off Favre’s presence would have been for Peterson’s fantasy point total, but I believe A.P. comes out better with Sage Rosenfels scaring defenses but still giving A.P. plenty of chances to run.

Bernard Berrian, WR
Sure, it would have been nice for Berrian to finally have one of those big arms to throw him the ball. Berrian is a speedster who has never really had a quarterback that could hit him consistently. But Favre isn’t the only guy who can throw it. Sage Rosenfels was the new guy in town before the Favre saga began anew.

As long as Sage beats out Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job, which is likely, he’s shown the ability to lead long scoring drives in Houston and hit his wideouts deep consistently. The only danger is that Rosenfels can suffer from the same “Captain Turnover” mentality that could sometimes get the best of Favre, but, at this point in their careers, I’d rely more on Sage’s accuracy than Favre’s. Sage will only get the starting call if he proves he can take care of the football for Minnesota.

Percy Harvin, WR/RB
Favre’s absence doesn’t change the fact that the Vikings have one of the more versatile players in the game at their disposal. Much like Berrian, Favre might have advertised more readily that the Vikings could hit Harvin deep, but I think Rosenfels will have just as much success if he takes the reigns in Minnesota.

Harvin is unaffected — Favre or no Favre — and Harvin’s presence on the field could open things up for Adrian Peterson more than Favre’s arm could.

Sidney Rice, WR
A sleeper wide receiver for the past two seasons, Rice is still developing into what he could become in the NFL. As a big-target wide receiver, Rice could have benefited from Favre’s knack for throwing the ball in the red zone rather than just handing it off to Adrian Peterson, but there’s nothing stopping Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson from taking advantage of Sidney Rice’s ability just the same.

Rice is probably the only player who looks less promising without Favre in-house, but that’s mostly because many are still waiting to see what he is capable of in this Vikings offense. Any of several factors could lead to him stepping up in the passing game or disappearing for a few more years.

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE
Brett Favre’s country charm might have convinced Shiancoe to keep more clothes on when the news cameras are around, but otherwise, Shiancoe’s not any better with Favre around. Tarvaris Jackson, surprisingly enough, made him into a legit star last season, but Rosenfels is capable of doing just that or more.

In fact, Shiancoe actually might have been more limited if Favre was starting for the Vikings because he might have been tasked with staying in and blocking more frequently for the less mobile veteran.

Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson, QBs
Obviously, these two guys benefit because they actually get a chance to play. Let’s hope that all the Favre talk inspired them to work harder rather than deflating their confidence as they entered training camp.

Minnesota Vikings D/ST
No doubt, the Favre deal failure helps the Vikings defense and special teams because they are less likely to encounter sticky situations if the Vikings stay with their conservative, run-based offense and don’t get too crazy with Rosenfels or Jackson passing the ball.

Favre might have forced the ball into a gap from time to time that just didn’t exist, and that would have required the Vikings defense, as good as it is, to bail him out of a jam. No Favre-jams this season, Vikings fans.

Looking ahead at a Favre-less 2009

So all in all, I’d say it’s a pretty good deal that Brett Favre decided to stay retired for the Vikings’ fantasy football values. While his own stock would have been on the rise and Berrian and Sidney Rice might have perked up a bit at the sound of his Wrangler jeans, the rest of the Vikings couldn’t have expected much of a drastic shift from having Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson leading the team.

For the sake of the passing game, let’s hope that Sage secures the job now that Favre is out of the picture.