Week 4 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders

This week’s bye shouldn’t have caught you by surprise, but the characters you are left to start might. Strangely enough, many of the players that you might have drafted late or gotten on the cheap have great plays this week.

Make sure you don’t forget about these guys, and as always, any start-or-sit questions asked in the comments will be answered by Saturday night. If not, call someone! I’m missing or in Vegas.

Hot Hands

J.T. O’Sullivan vs. Saints — Another great week to start O’Sullivan. He’s got a difficult stretch after this week, but JTO should have a shootout against Drew Brees and the Saints.

Lee Evans vs. Rams — He’s a fluke-y player, but St. Louis’ defense is no fluke. It’s just bad. Lee Evans could have a big week against this horrible pass defense, and you know he wants one.

Trent Edwards vs. Rams — Well, if Lee Evans has a good week…

Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh vs. Browns — The Browns defense has been pretty miserable, and Carson Palmer showed signs of life last week against the Giants. If you’ve been starting any of these guys the last three weeks, they should be in your lineup for Week 4.

Kerry Collins vs. Vikings — In a tough bye week, you may be out your star quarterback. Don’t expect explosions on the Titans offense, but Collins should put up decent numbers to keep Minnesota’s tough run defense off of LenDale White and Chris Johnson. He’s worth a start if you need a quarterback.

Jason Campbell, Santana Moss vs. Cowboys — Santana’s new thing is scoring touchdowns every game. Oh snap! He just scored another one. While I fear the Cowboys secondary, they haven’t recorded a single interception this season, and Campbell has been incredibly efficient with his passing. Both QB and RB are worth starting in what could be an Eagles-Cowboys style offensive contest.

Donald Lee vs. Buccaneers – He’s becoming more utilized in the Green Bay offense, and he just might see an increased role this week against a sometimes tough Tampa Bay secondary. If you are filling in someone for Dallas Clark, Anthony Fasano, Kevin Boss or John Carlson, Lee is a good option this week. Robert Royal isn’t bad either, but Jerramy Stevens might be better.

Bubble Boys

Jonathan Stewart vs. Falcons — He shares carries, but Stewart should dominate the Atlanta line. When it comes to short yardage (and touchdowns), it’s Stewart who should get the call. There’s always the chance that Atlanta lets Steve Smith run wild on them, but Stewart should have a decent week.

Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards vs. Bengals — They haven’t shown the chemistry they had last year, but if they get it going, it will be this week. Otherwise, it’s up to Braylon to find another lover in Brady Quinn.

Brett Favre vs. Cardinals — Even though they might not look it, the Cardinals are a top defense thus far. After the picks he threw against the Chargers, Favre might be uncertain and mistake-heavy against the Cards as well. You didn’t draft a Madden curse as a QB1, did you?

Matt Forte vs. Eagles — The Forte has been strong with this one. He’s put up points week after week. The Eagles are too tough a squad to let him get his usual 20 points, but if he can get a touchdown, he is worth playing. (Ed. Note: I’m still playing him this week, but it’ll be a judgment call between him and Westbrook for me. He’ll have his points, but don’t expect another 20-point outing.)

Bryant Johnson vs. Saints — Johnson showed little in Week 3′s stat books, but Gore had a big day. Against the Saints, they should mix it up a bit more, and Johnson could be the main target. Remember that, back in Arizona, the people keeping him off the field were Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

Devery Henderson vs. 49ers — Some weeks, Henderson shows up to work and gets a few long bombs his way. Other weeks, you have to check the reports just to make sure he was active. The guy is too inconsistent for my tastes. Even in this potential shootout, he might play the part of Casper.

Cold Shoulders

Rashard Mendenhall vs. Ravens — Mendy was one text message away from being a “Bubble Boy” rather than a “Cold Shoulder.” He may talk a big game to fellow rookie Ray Rice, but Mendenhall faces one of the top defenses against the run. After his mediocre showings thus far, I don’t think he’ll blow this one out of the water. Baltimore will bring the pain like Philly did and try to shut the Steelers down.

Kyle Orton vs. Eagles — The Eagles defense has been tough against the run and fierce attacking the quarterback. That intensity doesn’t bode well for an offense that relies on a strong run game to set up a few passes. Orton should be bombarded and isn’t worth starting unless you have no better options.

Trent Green vs. Bills — I know you just picked him up if he’s on your roster, and I’m sure you’re excited to see his first start of the season, but did you see what Buffalo did against the Seattle offensive line in Week 1? Trent Green might be in for another season-ending concussion. I just hope Green doesn’t die on the field. That would be a total buzzkill.

Torry Holt vs. Bills — Trent Green might bring that extra rally to the offense…but not this week. The Bills will take the passing game out immediately and make Steven Jackson work for every run he gets. Holt remains a WR3-worthy option for only the VERY optimistic this week.

Sleeper Who Might Wake Up This Week

My Norwood and Michael Pittman sleeper picks last week didn’t hurt you. Norwood had plenty of yards as the Chiefs got run over, and Pittman got a TD — granted, two would have been better. This week, I’ll go a little bit further out there.

Jordy Nelson vs. Buccaneers — In a tough bye week, Nelson isn’t a bad start. Jordy assumes the third WR position with James Jones still hurting, and they showed in Week 3 that they are comfortable letting him get some targets in the red zone. If you are without a WR3, Nelson could fill that spot for you, and as the third receiving threat against the Bucs secondary, he just might see some increased action.

On the Wire: Waiver Wire Saviors from Week 1

A disastrous and tragic Week 1 has left plenty of teams hurting for new talent. Was there a group shot on the cover of Madden this year?

Since Week 1 is always the best time to grab the waiver wire studs AND since this week was full of injuries and failures, this week’s waiver wire gems is pretty comprehensive. Next week, we’ll bring it down a notch. We’ll start things off at QB since I hear we lost one this week.

If these guys went undrafted in your league, make sure you correct that. Now.

Matt Cassel, QB New England Patriots

Jesus. If you don’t know why Cassel is going to be a top grab this week, GO BACK UNDER YOUR ROCK AND STAY THERE.

It’s possible if you are a Tom Brady owner — or former Brady owner, as the case may be — that you have other, better options than Cassel. In one league, for example, Delhomme is still out there somehow.

If you’re stuck choosing between a bunch of dangerous options, Cassel makes a nice replacement. At least, he has a great group of receivers to throw to this year even if his skill set is still in question.

Trent Edwards, QB Buffalo Bills

It’s good to know that Edwards knows Lee Evans is on the team now. They must have had some sort of Kumbaya camping trip this offseason.

Edwards looked good in the offense, and I might lean on him over Cassel knowing he has the skills to get his receivers the scores. He had 215 yards and a TD in Week 1, but I think he can do better. In Week 2, he’ll have Jason Peters back on the offensive line — and so will Marshawn Lynch.

Chad Pennington, QB Miami Dolphins

He has had fantasy success in the past — even last year when healthy — and he might have found a team in Miami that will come together around him.

With a strong Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown run game, Pennington looks like a QB2 and could contribute as part of a fantasy QB rotation.

He’s better than Damon Huard.

Kerry Collins, QB Tennessee Titans

Vince Young looks to be sidelined for a few weeks. If you need a stopgap, Collins could be your man. He’s very unlikely to be drafted by anyone in your league, but there is always the issue of who he will throw it to this season for the Titans…

If you can’t be picky, Collins could be a decent fill at QB for a few weeks.

Eddie Royal, WR Denver Broncos

Rookie sensation had THE BEST performance of any WR this week. Royal could be a slightly more productive version of Patrick Crayton last season, and he’ll always draw the weaker corner once Brandon Marshall returns in Week 2. He’s an excellent WR3 or more if he can keep catching Cutler’s eye once Marshall is back.

DeSean Jackson, WR Philadelphia Eagles

McNabb spread the ball in Week 1, but he liked targeting the rookie. As long as Kevin Curtis remains banged up, Jackson should be on a roster — and maybe even after. As an added bonus, he might return a kick or two for some additional TD points.

Jackson’s six catches for 106 yards isn’t too shabby, and Hank Baskett and Greg Lewis might even be worth stashing as well if both continue to see looks from McNabb.

L.J. Smith, TE Philadelphia Eagles

If McNabb is firing, Smith should see end zone looks. McNabb knows Smith is attached to a couple of the most reliable hands he can throw at this season, so look for Smith to continue to have nice games in good matchups. In Week 1, he posted 39 yards a score. He’s worth a TE2 spot if you carry two of them, or he could be part of a nice TE rotation with one of breakout TEs of 2008.

Dante Rosario, TE Carolina Panthers

The deep TE ranks get even deeper as long as Rosario remains a reliable target for Delhomme. He came down with seven receptions for 96 yards and a TD in Week 1. Worth rostering if you have a weak TE or want to trade away your stud to take advantage of the depth here this year, but be cautious. We don’t know how Rosario will be affected by the return on Steve Smith in Week 3.

Robert Royal, TE Buffalo Bills

Again, TEs look deep this year. The new offense in Buffalo smiled favorably on Royal, who caught six passes for 52 yards and a score against Seattle. After Jacksonville, the Bills schedule gets easier. I like Rosario better than Royal, but Royal is likely to see his fair share of looks this season unless rookie James Hardy starts to steal his end zone opportunities as Hardy gets more playing time.

Anthony Fasano, TE Miami Dolphins

We know Pennington doesn’t have a big arm (Girlish arm chant…Begin!), but he got his TEs involved early in the showdown against his former team, the Jets. Fasano practiced behind Jason Witten in Dallas, and look how Witten turned out. Fasano could be one of Pennington’s most reliable targets this season.

Matt Forte, RB Chicago Bears

Likely drafted in every league, Forte proved he could be a consistent fantasy starter in Week 1. He could put up a fight for offensive rookie of the year if he keeps it up. We know the Bears won’t have much on offense, so they’ll use their defense and Forte to control the game.

Felix Jones, RB Dallas Cowboys

I feel like THIS Jones will be far more effective than Julius Jones was last year for the Cowboys. His performance in Week 1 was worthy of a FLEX play (or even a low-end starter) with 62 yards and a TD. Barber bruised his ribs late in the game, and even though he is still expected to play in Week 2, look for Felix Jones to see increased action along with Tashard Choice against the Eagles.

Sammy Morris, RB New England Patriots

He’s the running back for the Patriots. I don’t care what the depth chart says. With Brady out, he could see an increased role in this offense. He’ll certainly be in the mix however the offense is rearranged to suit Cassel.

Pierre Thomas, RB New Orleans Saints

Thomas might make Deuce McAllister a ghost this season if he keeps stealing carries. He’s a must-grab for any McAllister owners and could be the workhorse back of the Saints offense this season.

Buffalo Bills D/ST

The Bills defense had a few shining moments last season, but being healthy this season and free agent additions (Marcus Stroud) have made them an emerging sleeper.

In Week 2, they get to play Jacksonville — suffering from a devastated offensive line. Their schedule gets pretty easy from there. Stash them now before the other teams in your league see them spark.

Ones to Watch

Carolina Panthers D/ST

I’m not entirely sold just yet, but the Panthers were on of my sleeper defensive units coming into 2008.

They kept L.T. tame in Week 1. That’s promising. Panthers face off against the Bears this week. I’m still a little worried about the 300+ yards that the Panthers gave up — Forte could tear them apart this week if he keeps his stud status. On the other hand, the Bears could look like…well, the Bears this week.

If you have a roster spot or lack confidence in your defense, it might be worth rostering Carolina this week to see where they go from this Week 1 performance.

J.T. O’Sullivan, QB San Francisco 49ers

Yeah, it’s a bit of a reach, but he still has upside. He got the ball to Frank Gore and Vernon Davis in Week 1, and he could expand on that in Week 2.

Hey, it’s Mike Martz, okay?

Matt Ryan, QB Atlanta Falcons

Still a rookie QB, but obviously, he’s going to have his good weeks every now and then. Worth a chance? Let’s see his Week 2 unless you desperately need QB help this season. Turner looks like the focus of this offense.

Tim Hightower, RB Arizona Cardinals

I didn’t see Hightower taking the goal line carries from Edgerrin James once the regular season got started, but apparently, they’re still doing that in Arizona. Edge is turning 30, but he still looks productive this season. Hightower might be worth rostering if you have the room, but he’s little more than a TD vulture. Other than his score, he only had 34 total yards.

Steve Slaton, RB Houston Texans

Slaton had more carries than Ahman Green, but Green went out with an injury in this one. Wait a sec, that makes Slaton look even better.

Regardless of the depth chart, the starting RB job in Houston is Slaton’s to earn if he performs well this season. While Green is sidelined, Slaton will probably share carries with the platoon of backs in Houston (Chris Taylor and possibly Darius Walker), but he should continue to see more and more carries.

Warrick Dunn, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The wily veteran’s role in this offense might be worth getting. He put up 54 yards in just nine carries in Week 1. He could play a larger role in future games.

Yes, I just wanted to use the word wily.

Kevin Walter, WR Houston Texans

If the Texans get a potent passing game going, Walter could benefit from Andre Johnson pulling the better corner. He’s worth rostering in deep leagues and seeing how he pans out. Otherwise, keep an eye on how much he contributes to see if he could be worthy of your WR3 spot.

Ignoring, as in “LA LA LA, I can’t hear you!”

LeRon McClain, RB Baltimore Ravens

Let’s see where he goes when McGahee is back. My guess is somewhere behind Ray Rice. I don’t think he’s worth rostering unless he reappears in Week 2.

Dominic Rhodes, RB Indianapolis Colts

Probably going to be just as valuable as Kenton Keith last season. There are better options out there who will get more than yardage and a few scores. I think Addai comes back from his head injury in Week 1 with no problems.

Michael Pittman, RB Denver Broncos

Yes, you scored two touchdowns. Congrats. Not sure I trust any Denver back this season. Pittman’s a TD vulture — feast or famine. Too risky to roster in my opinion.

Damon Huard, QB Kansas City Chiefs

It’s Damon Huard in a pretty terrible offense in Kansas City. Plus, he’s only in there for a few weeks until Brodie Croyle returns. I think I’d rather have Kerry Collins. “The Bowe Show” is nice and all, but I don’t like the season premiere that much.

Matt Jones, WR Jacksonville Jaguars

They say dead people twitch sometimes.

See other waivers around the Internetz at Fantasy Football Goat, at The Hazean, at Yahoo! Sports, at Pancake Blocks, at The Fantasy Football Geek Blog, at CBS Sportsline, at Fantasy Football Toolbox (also with upgrades for this week), at Pro Football Weekly, at Football Docs, at Bruno Boys, and at Fantasy Football Librarian.