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Pondering Christian Ponder: NFL Draft 2011 First Round Fantasy Football Gut Reactions

April 30th, 2011

I don’t get excited about who “won” the draft. I get excited about who I’ll draft for my fantasy football team.

When it comes to fantasy relevance, the first round didn’t overwhelm us. The 2011 draft set a record for defensive linemen taken in the first round with 12, but it’s hard to say that one defensive end or nose tackle will change the whole dynamic of a team defense. If you play IDP (Independent Defensive Players), those guys will matter to you, but the majority of fantasy players haven’t embraced IDP yet.

In the full list of draftees below, I’ve highlighted a few names in bold that I believe WILL have fantasy value sooner rather than later. Values may change as we (hopefully) enter into a free agency period and as teams decide how soon some of these “quarterbacks of the future” will start. Until then, I only have my gut reactions to the first round.

CAM NEWTON to CAROLINA

The Panthers desperately needed a quarterback that the team could get behind. Sorry, Jimmy Clausen. Cam Newton should get a chance to start soon, but he will have a hard time moving the ball through the air if Steve Smith forces a trade out of Carolina. Newton could start the year in a more limited role, perhaps even as a package quarterback running options and more Wildcat-style plays.

When he does get the chance to start, I could see Cam Newton having some fantasy relevance in 2011 alongside running back Jonathan Stewart, but I’d bank on Stewart carrying the load for this team with some help from Mike Goodson until Newton 1) masters the offense and 2) has some weapons around him in the passing game.

A.J. GREEN to CINCINNATI

Green was a huge get for the Bengals, who may or may not lose Chad Ochocinco this offseason in a trade. As the most talented receiver in his draft class, he’s destined to become an impact player for the Bengals, whether Carson Palmer sticks around or not. If Ochocinco gets traded, Green’s fantasy stock will obviously rise, but with the Bengals current roster, he’s worth drafting as a WR3 with WR2 upside.

That said, don’t forget about Jerome Simpson in Cincinnati.

JULIO JONES to ATLANTA

At first glance, you might say that Atlanta overpaid for this pick, and I don’t think anyone would disagree with you. But when you consider what Atlanta needed in this draft and their current roster, it makes sense. In an interview with ESPN Radio’s Mike & Mike in the Morning, Falcons GM Thomas Dimitrioff pointed out how young the Falcons are as a team. They don’t need a bunch of new blood and roster turnover. They just need to fill some holes on defense and to get another playmaker alongside Roddy White on offense.

Obviously, if it works out, no one will complain, and I could see Jones having significant value in the Atlanta offense if they really give Matt Ryan the reigns. I’m a little concerned that Jones’ presence might prevent Roddy White from being the lock for 100 yards and a touchdown he was last season, but if White balances out any Reggie Wayne-like disappearing acts with multiple-touchdown games thanks to Jones, his fantasy owners won’t complain.

JAKE LOCKER to TENNESSEE

While the Titans drafting Locker is surprising, we don’t yet know if Locker will start right away. Much like Newton, Locker might work behind a veteran quarterback this season while he learns the playbook and the masters the speed of the game at the NFL level. And if he does get a chance to start with a limited playbook, Chris Johnson won’t mind carrying the load for the Titans like he has the past two seasons.

So Locker’s fantasy value is largely dependent on whether he starts this year or not. I don’t see him as a must-draft this season unless you’re looking for a QB2 in a two-quarterback league, but he should be on your radar for 2012.

BLAINE GABBERT to JACKSONVILLE

Some experts say Gabbert will be the best quarterback in this class, but I don’t think we’ll see him on the field for a year, or maybe two, while he learns the Jacksonville offense. I believe it was on ESPN’s draft coverage that they said Jacksonville intended to take the Aaron Rodgers approach with him. I assume that doesn’t mean they’ll keep David Garrard around for a several more years and then trade him to the first team that promises Garrard ample opportunity to text genitalia to female reporters. What do you think?

Dynasty leaguers and keeper leagues might keep an eye on Gabbert, but I doubt he’ll have any fantasy value in 2011.

CHRISTIAN PONDER to MINNESOTA

A bit of a head scratcher, but Ponder will have to be the quarterback of the future now that he’s in Minnesota. They don’t have much else. There’s still some question about whether Sidney Rice will return to the Vikings, and that could greatly affect Ponder’s value.

Of all the rookie quarterbacks with the potential to start right away, Ponder would be last in my rankings. He’s also got Adrian Peterson in the backfield, so there’s no rush as long as he’s got a good hand off. Much like Locker, you might look at Ponder if you’re in a two-quarterback league, but he’d be very, very low on my list.

NICK FAIRLEY to DETROIT

In general, I try to stay away from saying one player will change the value of a team defense, but Detroit’s building on an area of strength by taking Fairley, who some considered to be the best player in this draft up until a few weeks ago. Next to Suh on the Detroit Lions defensive line, Fairley will put up some numbers. If the Lions offense holds up their end, and the defense gets to the quarterback with Suh and Fairley, they’ll be worth consideration as a team defense in 2011.

JONATHAN BALDWIN to KANSAS CITY

I don’t know a whole lot about Jonathan Baldwin, but I’ve seen mixed reactions to him being taken in the first round. According to some analysts, he’s not necessarily a perfect fit for what Kansas City does on offense. Bowe had a huge last half in the 2010 fantasy season, but Baldwin may not immediately share in the fantasy points there.

If you read any of my posts last season, you know I’m not a huge fan of Cassel. I’m probably selling Baldwin a little short just because I see Cassel regressing from his 2010 season. But if you’re looking to draft Baldwin, I’d take him as nothing more than a late-round stash with the potential to be a WR3.

MARK INGRAM to NEW ORLEANS

Depending on who you ask, Ingram will either be a fantasy stud or be just another fantasy dud. Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory are both still in New Orleans. Reggie Bush may or may not get a deal done to return to the Saints. That’s a lot of mouths to feed in an offense that ALSO likes to score points through the air from time to time.

Regardless, I think this eats into Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory’s value significantly. Only time will tell how the Saints adjust around Ingram, but he’s worth RB2 consideration and definitely worth drafting this season. I tend to believe the folks who say he might have RB1 upside. If you can get him for the right price in your fantasy draft, why not take the chance?

FIRST ROUND OF THE 2011 NFL DRAFT

  1. Carolina Panthers >> Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
  2. Denver Broncos >> Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
  3. Buffalo Bills >> Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
  4. Cincinnati Bengals >> A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
  5. Arizona Cardinals >> Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
  6. Atlanta Falcons (from Cleveland) >> Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
  7. San Francisco 49ers >> Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
  8. Tennessee Titans >> Jake Locker, QB, Washington
  9. Dallas Cowboys >> Tyron Smith, OT, USC
  10. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Washington) >> Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
  11. Houston Texans >> J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
  12. Minnesota Vikings >> Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
  13. Detroit Lions >> Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
  14. St. Louis Rams >> Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
  15. Miami Dolphins >> Mike Pouncey, C/OG, Florida
  16. Washington Redskins (from Jacksonville) >> Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
  17. New England Patriots >> Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
  18. San Diego Chargers >> Corey Liuget, DE, Illinois
  19. New York Giants >> Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
  20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers >> Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
  21. Cleveland Browns (from Kansas City) >> Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
  22. Indianapolis Colts >> Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
  23. Philadelphia Eagles >> Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor
  24. New Orleans Saints >> Cameron Jordan, DC, California
  25. Seattle Seahawks>> James Carpenter, OT, Alabama
  26. Baltimore Ravens >> Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
  27. Kansas City Chiefs (from Cleveland, previously Atlanta’s pick) >> Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
  28. New Orlean Saints (from New England) >> Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
  29. Chicago Bears >> Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
  30. New York Jets >> Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple
  31. Pittsburgh Steelers >> Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
  32. Green Bay Packers >> Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State

I’ll have another wrap after the entire draft. Consider this the tease. What do you think of the draft so far? What teams have changed their fantasy value the most in the first three rounds? Let me hear it in the comment below.

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On the Waiver Wire: Week 7 Pickups and Who is Danario Alexander?

October 19th, 2010

Week 6 dropped a few gifts into our lap as a result of recent injuries and trades, which comes at a very opportune time in the midst of bye weeks

I normally do a little digging on players I list on the waiver wire in order to assess their potential. Sometimes I share a little tidbit of this info, but I rarely go into great detail. In one case today, I think it’s necessary, so I went the extra mile on the Rams latest prospect. I think you’ll see that the background of this wideout makes him an even more appealing grab than his stat line on Sunday would attest.

You may not have seen the Rams’ game on Sunday, but I think this is name you’ll want to remember.

Danario Alexander, WR, St. Louis Rams

Let me introduce you to Mr. Alexander, the actual beneficiary of Mark Clayton’s absence who stole our hearts Sunday with four catches for 72 yards and a touchdown.

Alexander had an injury-plagued college career at Missouri, which included two ACL surgeries and a wrist surgery, but when he was able to stay on the field for his entire senior season, he amassed 1,781 yards and 14 touchdowns and had the most receiving yards per game in FBS football in 2009. [Source: Wikipedia]

Unfortunately, Alexander suffered another injury the week of the Senior Bowl and had to have surgery in February 2010, which prevented him from showing his skills to any pro teams prior to the 2010 NFL Draft.

So, with concerns about his heatlh, he went undrafted, but the Rams thought enough of him to bring Alexander in and develop him as a project. When he didn’t make the team due to his health, the Rams placed him on the practice squad to rest up and continue to devlop for the long-term.

After the final roster cuts, Alexander began the year on the practice squad and worked on strengthening his left leg. The problem wasn’t the left knee per se, the one that has been operated on four times. It was atrophy in the muscles around that knee — particularly the quad muscle. The left quad was smaller than the right, and the fear was that Alexander might suffer an injury compensating.

It just so happened that his left leg size, measured by the St. Louis staff throughout his recovery, got up to par with his right leg just this week and just in time for him to contribute in the absence of Mark Clayton, who was knocked out for the season with an knee injury in Week 5.

St. Louis Rams Danario Alexander celebrates his first NFL touchdown in the first quarter against the San Diego Chargers at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis on October17, 2010. St. Louis won the game 20-17. UPI/Bill Greenblatt Photo via Newscom

Of note, the Rams signed Alexander to the active roster prior to Week 6 with a four-year deal. That’s pretty good for someone who wasn’t even drafted and unusual for a guy signed off the practice squad. But it just reveals how much the Rams want to hold onto this guy. They may not have given him much money, but they’re fully invested in making him a part of this young franchises budding offense.

You probably know the rest of the story. Alexander went to work immediately with the first-team offense in practice and took the field for his first NFL game in Week 6 (after proving he could play by doing standing back-flip, of course).

His impressive, out-of-nowhere day gives us some idea of what he’s capable of as a top target for Sam Bradford. He’s got the physical tools that no other Rams’ wide receiver can offer—size and speed. He’s on par with Jahvid Best in the speed department.

Some fantasy owners might shy away from him because this was just one performance…by a rookie…against a Chargers defense that was unprepared for him. The defense had no film on him. (They certainly do now.)

But I’m not afraid to go after Alexander on the waiver wire this week, even with reports that his knee was a little sore after the game. He’s the potential No. 1 on an offense that throws the ball a lot more than any of us expected the Rams to this year. He’s shown a commitment to the game and his craft as a receiver, and he’s won the favor of his coaches enough for them to shove him straight into the first-team offense off of the practice squad.

If he starts looking like the Danario Alexander that scored 14 touchdowns in 2009 for Missouri, I want a piece of that. So Danario Alexander is my No. 1 recommendation off the waiver wire this week.

If you need a WR3 with WR2 upside, go get him. He could be the Sidney Rice of 2010.

Danny Woodhead, WR/RB, New England Patriots

I mentioned Woodhead just before the Patriots went on bye when the Jets’ favorite little running back first became a part of the Patriots’ offense. After the bye week and with the Randy Moss-less offense, he looks to be an every week contributor for the Pats. As an added bonus, depending on which site you use to manage your league, you may be able to take advantage of him as a wide receiver. I’d take Woodhead over most WR3s on the board so go get him if no one else has discovered this loophole yet.

Chris Ivory, RB, New Orleans Saints

He ran hard on Sunday, possibly hard enough to earn a role even after Pierre Thomas returns. Clearly, he’s the best back to own in New Orleans until then, but don’t count on him to be a factor all season long. Ivory will have to learn how to share with both Thomas and Reggie Bush when they are both back to 100 percent.

Deion Branch, WR, New England Patriots

Did you see Belichick run over to hug Branch after the game? It seems that Brady and Belichick really wanted Branch. They love Branch, and while he might not score every week, he should remain a pivotal part of this New England offense. We know New England’s game plan changes every week, but Branch should be owned in every league. He looks like a great WR3 to start for the rest of the season.

Nate Burleson, WR, Detroit Lions

It never hurts to play second fiddle to Calvin Johnson, and we know the Lions are going to be playing from behind a lot this season and forced to throw. Burleson is a decent WR3 and borderline WR2 for the rest of the year as long as he keeps taking advantage of his opportunities by getting in the end zone.

James Starks, RB, Green Bay Packers

The Packers felt comfortable rolling with what they had at running back after Ryan Grant went on IR because they knew Starks was on his way back to the active roster. He still needs time to work his way into the offense, but if you’re hurting at running back, you might as well stash him now. He may not unseat Brandon Jackson for the starting job, but he could end up stealing touches and fantasy points from the Green Bay ground game. There aren’t a lot of those to go around the way the Packers have been passing the ball this season.

Before you go grabbing Starks to put on your bench, make sure you grab the “instant gratification” stashes first like LeGarrette Blount.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Speaking of Blount, I mentioned him so I might as well note that Kareem Huggins and Earnest Graham were injured in Week 6. The door is wide open for Blount to contribute on the field against the Rams in Week 7, and I don’t think that Cadillac will stop him from carving out a role in this offense once he gets started. The only potential setback for Blount is that he still needs to learn how to pick up the blitz and protect Josh Freeman.

Derrick Ward, RB, Houston Texans

Arian Foster, you have been Kubiak-ed. The Texans coach now says Ward has earned a larger role in the offense moving forward. That probably just means a few touches here and there, but he will get the chance to score every now and then like he did on Sunday. Pick him up if you own Foster or if you just another warm body at running back.

More fantasy football waiver wire goodness from around the Web:

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2010 NFL Draft Mock Draft: Because it’s only fun to mock if you can pretend you’re smarter than other people

April 20th, 2010
2009 NFL Draft


Oh, it’s that beautiful time again. Time for the birds to start chirping in the trees. Time for the flowers to begin to bloom.

Time for me to ignore all of these things because it’s finally time for the NFL draft.

Who cares about nature? There’s no reason to go outside until the NFL Network takes a break from exchanging puzzled looks about Al Davis’ first-round pick and projecting these college studs’ future salaries.

In anticipation of the big day this Thursday, Cameron has put together the mock draft below for your enjoyment. And it’s not your typical “this team will take this guy because they said they would” kind of analysis. This mock draft is purely based on Cameron’s judgment of who each team should take.

We would make a drinking game out of how many picks he gets right, but as Shutdown Corner argued earlier today, that’s not the point of these things.

And besides, we don’t want Cameron to be completely smashed while we live blog the draft on Thursday night. That’s what the fourth round is for.

I’ll let Cameron take it from here. — Jacob

The Fantasy Football Fools’ 2010 Mock NFL Draft

1. St. Louis Rams – Ndamukong Suh – DT – Nebraska
Welcome to the league, Mr. Suh. I’m sure you are hoping that every NFL line is as good as the Texas Longhorns line in the Big XII championship game. It won’t be that easy, but Suh has the ability to dominate the line of scrimmage in any game. Everyone is picking the Rams to go quarterback here, but I’m not sold on anyone enough to warrant the first pick and the money that comes with it. Bradford would get eaten alive if the Rams trotted him out during his first season. The Rams hurt themselves by getting rid of Bulger, but Bradford is not the answer.

2. Detroit Lions – Russell Okung – OT – Oklahoma State
The Lions should have only one goal in mind for this coming season: Protect Stafford. With all the money invested in Stafford, they can’t afford to lose him to injury for even one game. Okung will protect Stafford’s blindside for many years to come and, hopefully, allow Stafford to throw it to Megatron 25 times a game.

3. Tampa Bay Bucs – Gerald McCoy – DT – Oklahoma
Quick, name the most recognizable defensive player ever for the Bucs…Warren Sapp. Tampa has been missing a vocal leader for the defense, a guy with a motor that doesn’t stop. Gerald McCoy can be that guy, and he could be the face of the defense for years to come.

4. Washington Redskins – Bryan Bulaga – OT – Iowa
After getting the quarterback they feel can take them to the next level, the Redskins are suddenly in need of a left tackle. Many feel the top three tackles (Okung, Bulaga, Williams) are interchangeable, so the Redskins pick the next best available. Bulaga is a smart offensive tackle who will help out McNabb for the next few years and whoever the Redskins bring in to take McNabb’s place.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Trent Williams – OT – Oklahoma
The Chiefs spent a pretty penny last year to bring in Matt Cassel, and he was on his back more often than not. Their No. 1 priority is to give Cassel time to show that he was not a one year wonder. Williams will upgrade the line and play either left or right tackle, wherever he is needed the most.

6. Seattle Seahawks – Eric Berry – S – Tennessee
The Seahawks have a big hole in the middle of the defensive backfield. Berry is seen as an Ed Reed type safety that has the speed and athleticism to not only pick off opposing quarterbacks, but also take the ball to the house. New head coach Pete Carroll loves speed, as seen by his college players. This is a perfect fit.

7. Cleveland Browns – Sam Bradford – QB – Oklahoma
The Browns would love nothing more than for the highest-rated QB on draft day to fall in their laps. Of course, this will not happen, but it does in this mock draft. Cleveland picked up Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace, but neither of those guys are long-term solutions. Bradford would benefit from sitting for at least a year. I don’t believe Bradford is the type of QB who should be thrown to the wolves. He needs to learn to read defenses and continue to heal his body.

8. Oakland Raiders – Anthony Davis – OT – Rutgers
Al Davis could end up picking another kicker in the first round for all we know. The Raiders need help on their line, plain and simple. With this big run on tackles in the first round, Oakland selects the next best available tackle. JaMarcus Russell needs some more protection, as he can’t throw the ball while on his back. Although he can throw the ball 70 yards on his knees, over those mountains.

9. Buffalo Bills – Dez Bryant – WR – School of Deion Sanders (Oklahoma State)
The Bills have glaring needs at a lot of positions. I’m not high on Clausen, so I’m not taking him here. The Bills could use someone to actually catch a ball downfield. With T.O. gone, they really have no threats (if you could call T.O. a threat last year). With needs on the O-line and at QB, Dez Bryant may be the guy who bails out whoever is under center next year.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Derrick Morgan – DE – Georgia Tech
Jacksonville needs some support on the front four. They went out and got Kampman, but he is going to need some help. Derrick Morgan has a motor and doesn’t stop until the play is over. His pass rush skills will immediately improve the Jaguar defense.

11. Denver Broncos – Rolando McClain – LB – Alabama
Denver has been rebuilding their defense through free agency, but there is still a big hole at inside linebacker. McClain could start early in Denver, and he could possibly be a candidate for defensive ROY a la Jerod Mayo of the Patriots.

12. Miami Dolphins – Dan Williams – DT – Tennessee
Everyone loves a big fat guy to put at NT when running a 3-4 defense. Dan Williams is that guy. Clogging up the middle and absorbing double teams allows the outside guys to do their job.

13. San Francisco 49ers – Joe Haden – CB – Florida
San Fran needs some help with DBs, and Haden is sitting here ripe for the picking. Haden could go earlier in the draft, but some people are iffy about his speed. It’s a huge get for the 49ers to take him this far into the draft.

14. Seattle Seahawks – C.J. Spiller – RB – Clemson
Pick No. 2 in the first round for the Seahawks turns out to be a grand slam. Spiller is a pure home-run threat in every sense of the word. He can take it to the house on any play, including kick and punt returns. Pete Carroll made a career out of using this kind of back, and there is no sense in stopping now.

15. New York Giants – Sean Weatherspoon – LB – Missouri
Like Denver, the Giants are another team with a need at linebacker. New York needs a linebacker probably more than any team in the draft. Drafting Weatherspoon here may seem like a reach since this goes against drafting the best player available, but a need is a need.

16. Tennessee Titans – Sergio Kindle – LB – Texas
The Titans defense was not good last year. If it wasn’t for Chris Johnson and V.Y., the Titans might have only won two games. They could use an upgrade at basically every defensive position. They need depth at CB and definitely at DE, but I take Kindle here. Kindle is one of those pass rush specialists that can wreak havoc in the backfield. A better defense means better field position for the fireworks on offense to do their thing.

17. San Francisco 49ers – Jason Pierre Paul – DE – South Florida
Defensive end is not a huge need position for San Fran, but the raw talent that Pierre-Paul exudes is tempting at this point in the draft. He only played Division 1 ball for a year, but what he showed at that level was very promising.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers – Mike Iupati – OG – Idaho
Pittsburgh needs to strengthen the O-line, and Iupati is their man. He is a great guard, but he can also play some tackle. He is a very versatile lineman who will be able to switch positions at will for many years to come.

19. Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Graham – DE – Michigan
Atlanta needs a pass rusher opposite of John Abraham. Graham is an explosive end who could start immediately for the Falcons. This pick fills a great need that Atlanta has been seeking for a while.

20. Houston Texans – Earl Thomas – S – Texas
Houston needs defensive back help in the worst way. I know they are praying Earl Thomas falls to them with the No. 20 pick on Thursday, and he just so happens to make it there in this draft. Most people see Thomas as a pure safety, but some analysts see Thomas as a safety that can play corner. Regardless, he is a ball hawk who flies to the ball wherever it is on the field, and he hits harder than most linebackers.

21. Cincinnati Bengals – Jermaine Gresham – TE – Oklahoma
The Bengals have a rejuvenated running game thanks to Cedric Benson, and with Chad Ochocinco and the addition of Antonio Bryant, there is some pop in the passing game. What Carson Palmer lacks is a big pass-catching tight end. Gresham is a great pass-catching tight end who would have found himself higher on the list if he had decided to come out for last year’s draft.

22. New England Patriots – Jimmy Clausen – QB – Notre Dame
New England has no immediate need for a quarterback as Tom Brady will be around for the foreseeable future. With Clausen still on the board, I can see the Pats taking him here as the quarterback of the future. Sitting behind Brady for a while could do wonders for Clausen as well as teach him a thing or two about leadership. At the very least, I could see Belichick taking Clausen and using him as trade bait for more picks in a couple of years.

23. Green Bay Packers – Bruce Campbell – OT – Maryland
Everyone wants to know when this workout warrior will be taken. While Campbell didn’t perform at an all conference level in college, his measurables are off the charts. Green Bay’s line is getting older by the minute, and Campbell is some fresh blood who can afford to sit a year or two and learn from some veterans.

24. Philadelphia Eagles – Everson Griffen – DE – USC
The Eagles need a safety, but I’m not sold on Taylor Mays. He looks like a Roy Williams clone, a hard-hitting safety with no coverage skills. The Eagles could look to shore up their pass rush here and Griffen is a defensive end with great NFL potential.

25. Baltimore Ravens – Jared Odrick – DE – Penn St.
The Ravens are known for their defense, the same defense that won them a Super Bowl…in 2001. Now they need to upgrade their defense at every position. Odrick is quick off the ball, and he will give this old defense a shot in the arm.

26. Arizona Cardinals – Jerry Hughes – OLB – TCU
The Cardinals are in need of a linebacker, and Hughes is the next best available. A lot of people see him as more of a pass-rushing defensive end, but he is an explosive player no matter what position he plays in Arizona’s 3-4 defense.

27. Dallas Cowboys – Charles Brown – OT – USC
The Cowboys’ No. 1 need is at offensive tackle, especially with the release of Flozell Adams. Brown is a bit of a reach here, and if he is the best available tackle, I fully expect Jerry Jones to trade out of the first round and acquire some extra picks as he has done in the past.

28. San Diego Chargers – Toby Gerhart – RB – Stanford
San Diego could use a between-the-tackles bruiser to compliment the speed and agility of Darren Sproles. No one has a first round grade for Gerhart, and most people are high on Ryan Mathews. But it was obvious just watching college football last year that Gerhart was a team player that played with his heart on his sleeve. Hell, he could probably even get along with Philip Rivers.

29. New York Jets – Carlos Dunlap – DE – Florida
The Jets addressed their WR needs by picking up Santonio Holmes. If they hadn’t, Demaryius Thomas would have been their pick here. Dunlap has all the physical tools to be a great pass rusher and would have gone earlier if not for some questions about laziness. He is a good value pick at the end of the first round.

30. Minnesota Vikings – Maurkice Pouncey – OG/C – Florida
The Vikings need to get younger at the interior O-line positions. Pouncey can play guard and center, which makes him the perfect pick here.

31. Indianapolis Colts – Rodger Saffold – OT – Indiana
The Colts are getting really old at every line position. Saffold has the talent to be a left tackle for the next ten years. The Colts just need to show him the way.

32. New Orleans Saints – Daryl Washington – OLB – TCU
The Saints’ biggest need is at outside linebacker. Daryl Washington may be called a reach here at the end of the first round, but he should be seen as a steal. He has ideal speed and is great in coverage. Filling a hole at the end of the first round with a great prospect is all you can ask for if you’re the Saints.

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Week 14 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders: You Know Where This is Going

December 10th, 2009
Tennessee Titans v Indianapolis Colts

I thought we’d do things a little differently this week. By this point, I expect that most of you know who you are starting and sitting during these critical weeks of the fantasy playoffs. As such, I don’t think you’ll need as much help deciding which players to start and sit.

Trust is as important a factor as any, and you have to go with your trustworthy guys.

So rather than give you a few players with good games and a few players with bad games this week, we’d be better served just talking about what you can expect from those studs this week and what chances are worth taking for the playoffs.

For starters, the Fourth & 1 Debate fantasy football roundtable covered a few players who, while under the radar most of the season, could make a big splash in the fantasy playoffs. My pick is San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith, but you’ll have to go and read the full debate to see my reasoning. It’s good. Promise.

And it’s especially good if you need a sub for Peyton Manning in Week 16, when he is likely to sit out the second half, denying you those fantasy points you need in the championship.

Fanhouse lays out a very strategic plan to attack the playoffs, and a nice set of players to help you do so. I agree with most of their adds, but don’t jump all over the young guns they recommend. Sure, they look good now, but will they really be trustworthy enough to start? I doubt it. Fantasy Joe’s Mike Gilbert doubts waiver wire studs Devin Thomas and Louis Murphy, too.

So if you need the depth or just want to keep them out of the hands of your opponent, go get ‘em. Otherwise, keep your most trusted fantasy cogs close at hand and on your roster.

As FF Toolbox points out, Joe Flacco gets the Lions, Mike Wallace may get a chance to start against the Browns tonight (Joy!), and Kevin Boss faces the tight-end-friendly Philadelphia Eagles defense. On the other hand, dark days look to continue for Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. I wouldn’t want to trust DeAngelo Williams if he plays this week either after what Michael Turner did to fantasy owners in his first game back (He immediately got hurt again, as if you didn’t know).

Fantasy Football Xtreme’s Smitty cautions against Kevin Smith and Steven Jackson, and I would agree. As great as Jackson’s been on a bad, horrible, terrible, and atrocious St. Louis Rams (did I mention they were bad?), he may hit the wall this week with Kyle Boller at quarterback against the Titans.

Not a lot of surprises from Fantasy Joe in their start or sit recommendations this week. Among the names, Chris Johnson and Ray Rice look poised and ready to do some damage. I’m sure many of their fantasy owners would appreciate it in the first rounds of the playoffs, me included.

Also noted, Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson would seem like good starts if it weren’t for Matt Cassel’s struggles and Jackson’s recent cooling off period. I’d hate to have to rely on them, but you may be forced to start them.

Unlike Fantasy Joe, I’m not as afraid of Donovan McNabb against the Giants. He may be able to put two good games together against them this year, especially if he gets top target DeSean Jackson back this week.

By the way, in one of my leagues, the owner of Chris Johnson didn’t make the playoffs… in a 10-team league in which six, and let me say that twice, SIX teams made the cut. Do you realize how bad you have to be to not make the playoffs with Chris Johnson? Bad. So very, very bad. Rams bad.

Davone Bess and Chris Brown are two intriguing names in the sleeper pool. I’d pass on starting them over someone who got you to the playoffs, but they aren’t bad flex plays this week. Brown more so than Bess. Fanhouse likes Bess as well.

The FF Geek Blog predicts some struggle for the Land Baron and some promising returns on Jamaal Charles as he goes in against Buffalo, but my favorite note thus far was their take on Antonio Bryant’s bad situation this week: “Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers vs NYJ – Darrelle Revis.” That pretty much says it all.

In keeping with the theme of starting the guys who got you there, ESPN’s rankings look pretty familiar. Fanhouse doesn’t stray from the path of the studly either.

If you’re current options are a little sketchy, Fantasy Joe recommends trying the Titans and Cardinals defenses over the Steelers this week, but I can’t fully support the Cardinals defense as an option when they are facing my pick to be an explosive fantasy force this week, Alex Smith. I’m just glad I have the Saints D/ST to set and forget.

Song to Ease Your Pain While Setting Lineups

Now, since I know you can’t set your rosters without musical accompaniment, I give you your very own “Choose Your Own Adventure” of songs to set your roster to this week.

If you’re awesome: Three Days Grace – Animal I Have Become

Rage? Yes. Awesomeness? Completely. Playoff-worthy? Most definitely.

But if you’re hurting and little worried about your game this week, I offer the more melodious but still awesome: Kings of Leon – Use Somebody

If only your stud players were still showing up. Will that one waiver wire claim you picked up this week save your team? Alex Smith? Jamaal Charles? Only time will tell. Good luck with that one.

And with that, I leave you to your games this week. Best of luck to those of you in the playoffs, and sorry to hear about those of you who are not. If you have any questions, you know what to do. Hit us up in the comments or get in touch.

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On the Wire: Week 11 Pickups, Replacements Justin Forsett, Bernard Scott, and McCoy

November 17th, 2009

So now begins our recovery from this great weekend of injuries. It’s all your fault, but I forgive you.

NFL seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

This week, we are left with the scraps of all the teams who lost one of their studs.

Hot Claims

Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle Seahawks — Let’s be honest. Forsett already had a great shot of winning this starting job before Julius Jones was injured. Now that Jones is out of the way, even for just one game, Forsett could be the Seahawks’ starter for the rest of the season. He had 123 rushing yards and one touchdown on Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals, who until recently had been stout against the run.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles — Brian Westbrook went down again, which leaves the starting job in the hands of McCoy once again with a little help from Leonard Weaver. Westbrook could miss the rest of the season after suffering his second concussion in three weeks, but McCoy has few juicy matchups on the schedule. He faces the Giants, 49ers, and Broncos in the fantasy playoffs.

Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals — He finally took that step Sunday in scoring twice and leading the team in carries and rushing yards. If the Cardinals find it in their hearts to anoint him the starter and give Tim Hightower the backup role, Wells could be a fantasy stud in the final weeks of the season. He faces Detroit and St. Louis in the fantasy playoffs, Weeks 15 and 16.

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs — I’d assume he’s off your waiver wire by now, but if not, Charles finally had his good game on Sunday (103 yards and a touchdown), and he could have many more. Remember that playoffs schedule: Buffalo, Cleveland, Cincinnati.

Ricky Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins — Another guy I highly doubt is on your waiver wire, but he’s worth mentioning with Ronnie Brown looking like a scratch this Thursday.

Jason Snelling, RB, Atlanta Falcons — Michael Turner will be out for a few weeks while he recovers from a high ankle sprain. Jerious Norwood stands to get some of the work if he can get healthy, but for now, this is Snelling’s job, and he looked capable while notching 61 rushing yards, a touchdown, and 32 receiving yards in Turner’s absence on Sunday.

Ladell Betts, RB, Washington Redskins — Maybe the more rested legs of Betts are a welcome change for the Redskins. He should shoulder the carries until Clinton Portis returns, and Portis could probably use as much rest as he can get. Betts ran for more than 100 yards in the two weeks since he replaced Portis.

Fantasy Filler

Bernard Scott, RB, Cincinnati Bengals — No one is certain how many games Cedric Benson will miss, but the Bengals are worried enough about their depth to consider adding Larry Johnson. It must be at least that bad. Scott should be the starter in Benson’s absence, and he would get the cupcake matchups of the Bengals’ schedule if Benson sits for several weeks—Oakland, Cleveland, and Detroit.

Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams — Nobody wants to start Avery. But his schedule does look nice, and he has actually found the end zone over the past five weeks. He might just be worth stashing as the fantasy playoffs.

Laveranues Coles, WR, Cincinnati Bengals — It appears he may have finally found his rhythm with Carson Palmer, but it’s still hard to trust the veteran receiver as long as Chad Ochocinco and Andre Caldwell are also on the field.

Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans — Young seems to be finding his way in the Titans’ offense. The Titans are leaning on Chris Johnson to win game right now, but opposing teams will eventually learn how to shut down the speedster and force Young into action. He’s no great bet as a fantasy starter, but he carries on of the lowest price tags as a backup right now if you’re in need.

Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina Panthers — If you’re looking for upside, Delhomme is not it, but as a backup, he could be useful down the playoff stretch, especially with the outbreak of injuries that struck this week. He threw two touchdowns for the first time this season Sunday. Maybe he’ll turn his early failures around to end the season.

Long-term Investments

Brandon Gibson, WR, St. Louis Rams — Gibson replaced Keenan Burton when Burton went down this week, and he finished the game with seven catches for 93 yards against the Saints. The Rams looked surprisingly alive against the NFC’s undefeated, but I wouldn’t be so sure they could ever put a game like this one together again. Technically, the Saints’ secondary was banged up. Still, Gibson’s a likely starter from here on out. If you’ve got the roster spot, you can stash the rookie to see if he can keep it up.

Maurice Stovall, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — In Antonio Bryant’s absence, Stovall is benefiting from the arm of Josh Freeman. He scored on Sunday, and that could become a trend. As long as Bryant sits out, Stovall could be worth holding onto down the stretch.

Larry Johnson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals — He’s not the starter; in fact, we can’t even be sure at this point how far down the depth chart Larry Johnson will be come Sunday. Still, he is a Bengal, and he has the same schedule as Bernard Scott these next three weeks—Oakland, Cleveland, and Detroit. If he can pick up the offense (and shut his mouth long enough), he could play enough to be worth owning. But Benson’s return should relegate him to cleanup duty at best.

Michael Bush, RB, Oakland Raiders – Sure, he had a great game, even with Darren McFadden back on the field. But I don’t want any piece of the Raiders. You shouldn’t either. If you are desperate for a running back, this one has a pulse, but the talent in Oakland never lives up to expectations.

Droppables

Julius Jones may never start again for the Seahawks. Justin Gage could be worth upgrading now that he’s out with a severe back injury. Willie Parker just doesn’t look like he’ll get his job back this year. Justin Fargas should lose touches to both Bush and McFadden down the stretch. In desperation, you could let Brian Westbrook go, but I’d try to trade him first. He may not play again this year.

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Foolish Thoughts: Turner, Benson, Brown, Westbrook struck down by fantasy jinx

November 17th, 2009
Falcons vs. Skins

It’s all your fault, you know. Yes, you, the one who pointed out how few injuries had struck fantasy owners thus far this season. You’re the reason we lost Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner, Julius Jones and Brian Westbrook (again).

You jinxed three of the top backs in fantasy…and Julius Jones just happened to go down the same week.

I would say you cost us Kyle Orton, too, but it seems he won’t even miss a game despite his ankle injury. His neckbeard can take a twist of the ankle and a crushing in stride. There’s something else that Orton and cockroaches have in common.

It’s hard to say who got it the worst. Westbrook owners have been dealing with this all season. Much like Jon and Kate of “plus eight” fame, no one expected this to last all season.

Benson owners got a bargain rate on him to begin with in the draft this year, which makes it hard for me to feel sorry for them. Give your fantasy gift-workhorse a breather. Stop being so needy.

While “Wildcatting” his way into the fantasy hearts of fantasy owners, Brown still shared carries this season with Ricky Williams. Owners could have locked Brown up as a second running back in the draft and might have even stashed Ricky Williams as a precautionary measure.

You may be in a bit of hot water if you were relying on Brown at this point in the season, but I’d expect you to have a backup plan.

Julius Jones? Well, is anyone missing him?

Is that crickets I hear?

Maybe it was a blessing in disguise that Jones got injured. I wish the guy the best, but now we can all get a serious look at Justin Forsett, and that’s all we really wanted out of Seattle this season anyway.

But Turner owners, poor Turner owners, you just lost your first round pick. A high ankle sprain is no tiny injury, and it could be several weeks before Turner gets back on the field.

Sure, maybe you wore a tin foil hat all season and picked up Jason Snelling to hedge your bets, but if not, you’re probably looking for a solid replacement this week. Good luck to you.

For the savvy few who stocked up on young backs poised to break out at some point this year…and who stuck out the weeks upon weeks where they did next to nothing this season, this week also marked the emergence of several young backs that owners had been stockpiling all season.

Was Sunday some special holiday or rebirth and renewal? No, I’ll stick with the jinx hypothesis.

Jamaal Charles — Nice of you to finally come to the party. I only had to pick you as a solid start for two weeks in a row. I know 103 rushing yards, a touchdown, and four receptions for 14 receiving yards may come easy against the Raiders, but I’m looking forward to how this carries into next week. If you become reliable, I might even start you in the fantasy playoffs against Buffalo and Cleveland.

Beanie Wells — That’s the kind of game we’ve expected from you all season, scoring twice and looking like a real champ. You even got some work in the passing game. Are Tim Hightower’s days numbered? I’m not so sure. But I do know you are getting your fair share of the work from here on out. That’s promising.

Justin Forsett — In Julius Jones absence, you racked up 123 yards, a touchdown, and five receptions for 26 yards. I love surprises, but it sure would have been nice to know you were going to take over this week.

And just because the Raiders have to screw fantasy owners that find themselves relying on them when it matters most, it was Michael Bush, not Darren McFadden, running for more than 100 yards against the Chiefs. Oh, Al Davis, so old-persony cute and so very evil.

It may be frustratingly impossible to predict who gets the bulk of the Raiders’ running game now that all three are back in the fold. Most weeks, you shouldn’t touch them. Same rule applies to Al Davis.

I know the hot story out there is that Maurice Jones-Drew took a knee at the end of the game rather than running it into the end zone. Some fantasy owners may be furious, but as a MJD owner and supporter, I’m not.

The guy already gave you a touchdown and over 100 yards. I think we can let him off the hook just this once for not getting two scores in a crucial time management situation. We should just be glad he’s not Michael Turner. If you owned him, you’d be much more angry.

Now back to watching the Browns circle the toilet bowl. I keep expecting their offense to take the field at some point, but it doesn’t seem like they have one. Just tragic.

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Michael Crabtree signs…and I don’t care [Fantasy Impact]

October 8th, 2009
San Francisco 49ers Minicamp

Michael Crabtree, who majored in diva-ology at Texas Tech, has finally signed with the San Francisco 49ers as of yesterday. Apparently, that whole “we can win without you” message got into his head, but he’ll certainly be upset that his own signing was upstaged by the Braylon Edwards trade, relegating Crabtree to just a footnote.

After weeks of speculation about why he was holding out and accusations that the New York Jets were tampering, which will still be investigated despite Crabtree’s signing, the wait is over.

Full of rookie potential and college hype, scouts expect Crabtree to become one of the truly dominating receivers in the NFL, a weapon that the 49ers could really use to make their offense more dynamic–or as dynamic as an offense can be with Shaun Hill at quarterback.

But don’t expect Crabtree to immediately jump into the 49ers offense and start diva-fying everything. The 49ers have no room for divas. They run the ball, and I don’t expect that to change just because Crabtree is now a member of the NFL club. He’s likely to spend most of the coming weeks learning the offense.

When the 49ers activate him, he could still be just the second option behind Josh Morgan, who hasn’t been terrible, or even the third option behind both Morgan and a surprisingly productive Vernon Davis.

I don’t hate Shaun Hill as a quarterback; in fact, I view him as a fairly decent QB2 option most weeks. But Hill’s been far more likely to throw to Davis and hand the ball off to Frank Gore or Glen Coffee in these early weeks of the season than he has to try something deep to Morgan or Isaac Bruce. I don’t think Crabtree will change that.

So if Crabtree is floating on your waiver wire, and you have the roster spot on your bench to spare, feel free to go out there and get him, but make sure you view it as an investment for the end of the season.

In redraft leagues, Crabtree may be nothing but a blip on the fantasy radar as a situational receiver for the 49ers down the stretch, but at least you’ll be first in line to benefit when he sees the field.

If you, like many owners, need that bench spot to survive the upcoming bye weeks, I think it’s safe to wait on the diva. He will mind, but I don’t care.

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Foolish Thoughts: Broncos, Bills and Bears! Bowe, my!

August 17th, 2009

Let’s be honest. You can’t believe anything you hear in the preseason.

Chicago Bears v Buffalo Bills

Head coaches sound more like head cheerleaders. Rookies will all become superstars. Offensive coordinators experiment with plays that could radically change their offense for the better, and trainers expect everyone back at full speed by the first week of the regular season. It just doesn’t get any better.

By September, we’ll all forget we drank this much Kool-Aid, but after one week of the preseason, there are a few story lines worth following.

Jay Cutler finds targets in Chicago

Cutler’s move to Chicago this offseason took him down a few notches in the fantasy ranks due to a belief that the Bears just didn’t have the receivers to support his arm. Devin Hester is still a work-in-progress despite his nice season last year as the Bears’ leading receiver, and rookie Earl Bennett, now slated to start, hasn’t ever seen the field in the regular season.

Cutler certainly has the arm to do many things well for Chicago, things Neckbeard and Rexy could never do consistently, but this preseason will be important in determining how high he can climb up the quarterback ranks. It wouldn’t surprise me if Hester, Bennett and tight end Greg Olsen outperformed expectations, but they will have to prove it on the field.

As a former college teammate, Earl Bennett seems to be on the same page as Cutler this preseason, and Hester can get behind the defense in a hurry as long as Cutler can get him the ball.

Rusty in their first preseason appearance, in which Cutler put some of the blame for an interception on Hester, the Chicago Bears face the Giants this weekend. A good showing from Cutler could prove he is worth consideration as a starter this season.

Denver lost with Josh McDaniels

Left in the wake of the Cutler saga, Denver isn’t very happy with their new quarterback. Kyle Orton is basically just the consolation prize from Josh McDaniels’ botched talks with Jay Cutler this offseason. Neckbeard won’t get much slack if he can’t prove his ability in the Broncos’ new system.

Orton’s first showing could have gone much better, and it might not be long before we see Chris Simms getting a shot at the starting job.

The real story to watch here is the Broncos’ receivers, Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Marshall’s got plenty to prove on his own, but neither fantasy stud from last season can do much without a quarterback to get them the ball.

If the Broncos still don’t impress in their second game against the Seahawks, it’s time to get worried.

Bills don’t need no stinkin’ huddle

Trent Edwards is another quarterback who could make a jump into the starting-worthy category this season. The Buffalo Bills are experimenting with a no-huddle offense to take advantage of their two explosive receivers, Lee Evans and Terrell Owens, and minimize the problems associated with having no offensive line. Really, they got nothing there.

The new offense hadn’t quite come together when the Bills faced the Titans in the Hall of Fame game, but Edwards was perfect in his second game and completed all 10 of his passes for 79 yards. If that progress continues, he’s worth considering at the top of the backup quarterback pile — at least until it gets cold in Buffalo.

T.O. sat out the Bills’ second game with a bad toe, but if he can return and prove effective in this offense, he’ll remove many concerns about whether things will work this season in Buffalo.

Who’s Chief in Kansas City?

I generally don’t enjoy watching the Kansas City Chiefs play football, but with Todd Haley running the show, they could become a fantasy receiver factory.

The big story out of preseason is Dwayne Bowe’s demotion to the third team. He’s definitely in Haley’s doghouse for showing up this offseason out of shape, but he’s lost weight and was the best receiver on the field in the first preseason game. If he regains his role as the No. 1, he could be the most targeted receiver in the NFL this season.

I don’t love Matt Cassel or Dwayne Bowe because I fear that Kansas City will fall short of expectations this season on offense, but in a PPR league, Bowe could be a huge weapon. We’ll see the Chiefs try out their new offense against the Vikings this Friday, and perhaps Bowe will be back on top by then.

What are you looking for this preseason? As always, the comments are yours.

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Guest Post: Three RBBCs to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts

August 10th, 2009

This guest post comes to us all the way across the pond from Ross Mooring of Never Kick a Gift Horse in the Teeth. If you enjoy his thoughts on RBBCs in the NFL, you can read more in his recent posts on the AFC and the NFC.

In the past five years, the landscape of fantasy football has changed in a difficult but interesting way. Gone are the days of a multitude of “bell cow” running backs to stack on your roster — run out of town by the rise of running-back-by-committees (RBBC) to the extent that the number of reliable weekly starters has decreased into the teens. In terms of formatting your roster, this shift means you will end up with three, if not four, backs on your team who share time.

The new environment requires more research for your average fantasy drafter. One has to pay lots of attention to training camp battles and keep an eye on pretty much every preseason game in order to make sure that running back “A” has not passed running back “B” on the depth chart, and even so far as to looking into what running back “C” is doing.

With this in mind, I’ve chosen the top three RBBCs to avoid in your fantasy draft.

Jacksonville Jaguars v New England Patriots

Baltimore Ravens

A star running back in 2007, Willis McGahee started the Ravens’ camp on the PUP. During the off-season, big-boned LeRon McClain was talked down from his previous years’ short-yardage success and talked up concerning fullback duties, while rookie starlet Ray Rice was bigged up to improve in his sophomore year.

If he’s fit, McGahee, however, is the prototypical workhorse of the group, but remember that coach John Harbaugh seemingly picked his favorite week-to-week on a random basis last year. As a result, while someone has to run the ball in Baltimore and do it well, it’s a crapshoot at this point.

New England Patriots

If you think the Ravens’ backfield committee is a mess, try working out what’s going to happen in New England! Will former first-round pick Laurence Maroney finally fufill his potential? Will Bill Belichick become smitten with free agent grandpa Fred Taylor?

Will Sammy Morris steer clear of injuries and monopolize the carries? And will Kevin Faulk continue to eat into time on passing and third downs? If you can figure this backfield out, you’ll be rewarded. If not, join the rest of us and scratch your head.

New York Jets

Staying in the AFC East with this one, there’s another triple-headed monster to tackle with the added bonus of a potentially weak passing offense in need of a running game to take the pressure off. Thomas Jones surprised many with his 2008 return to form, and he should do so again this year, except in a different way.

Jones has contract issues, and these issues led the Jets to draft power back Shonn Greene out of Iowa. The other runner in the mix, Leon Washington, also wants more money and figures to get more time this year as well. Without Brett Favre and Laveranues Cole around to keep defenses honest, there is too much risk here.

Read more of Ross Mooring at Never Kick a Gift Horse in the Teeth.

Disagree with Ross about these RBBCs? As always, the comments are yours.

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Taking the Next Step: Matt Ryan Projections for 2009

August 4th, 2009
Atlanta Falcons Training Camp

Is Matt Ryan really all he’s cracked up to be this season?

I wasn’t much of a believer in the 2008 class of NFL quarterbacks. I even doubted that Matt Ryan would make it off the board among the top five picks, but I am sure the Falcons are glad they didn’t feel the same way. Ryan blossomed in his rookie season and drew comparisons to Peyton Manning by year’s end. Going into 2009, he’s got an enhanced set of weapons with Tony Gonzalez now in Atlanta and plenty of opportunity.

The obvious improvements in his game and the Falcons as a team have caused many fantasy football pros to raise him up as one of the future quarterback icons, and now drafters are taking him as a late QB1 selection — or sometimes far earlier than they should — expecting him to be a starting quality fantasy quarterback this year.

While there’s no denying that his rookie season was impressive, it’s hard for me to justify taking Matt Ryan as a starting fantasy quarterback with just one year under his belt and few multiple touchdown games to his name.

Tony Gonzalez’s late-season surge in Kansas City made him the top tight end in fantasy last season, but I don’t think he’ll carry that momentum right into his first season in Atlanta. The Falcons were a run-first team last year, and they’re not going to turn into Peyton Manning’s Colts just because they have a tight end who can catch. Atlanta will depend on Gonzalez’s blocking abilities to establish the run with Michael Turner before looking to pass with a mix of Roddy White, Gonzalez, Michael Jenkins, Harry Douglas and Jerious Norwood.

While Gonzalez will be the new “hot route” in Atlanta, a designation that made Roddy White one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL last season, the shift to Tony Gonzalez shouldn’t make the Atlanta offense significantly more productive in “hot route” situations. The move is more a knock to Roddy White’s value than anything else.

In 2008, Ryan was a marginal to poor fantasy starter. He made Roddy White look like a true fantasy stud, but Ryan’s 16 touchdowns throughout the season were not enough to keep him at the top of many lineups. The games in which he did score multiple touchdowns came against struggling defenses like the Packers, Raiders, Saints and Chargers, except for, surprisingly, one game against the Eagles where he had two touchdowns. In my mind, that makes him largely unproven facing the NFC and AFC East this season.

The one bit of reasoning that I can buy for being optimistic with Ryan’s projections is that Ryan could see a need to put more points on the board this season if the Atlanta defense, largely unspectacular last season, fails to keep games close. Turner’s power running might have to be put aside for more of a throw-happy, play-from-behind offense if that is the case, but that could also prove dangerous for Ryan and doesn’t promise that the offense will be successful.

In order to justify a QB1 role, Ryan would need to increase his touchdown totals and his yardage significantly. Despite his skills, Tony Gonzalez is unlikely to give Ryan the 75 yards and a touchdown he needs each game to do that. I see Matt Ryan finishing the year with just over 3000 yards and 20-25 touchdowns.

While Ryan makes for a promising and reliable QB2, I would not plan on taking him as your starting quarterback this season. He still has more to prove, and it would be unfair to him and his talent to expect it of him in just his second season.

Think Matt Ryan is the next big thing? As always, the comments are yours.

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