Posts Tagged ‘running back’

And while you’re kicking yourself for not drafting these guys in the first place

December 31st, 2009

Here’s a look from Sports Data Hub at the top fantasy performers at each position as of the beginning of December.

We all wish we could go back to the draft and change something, whether we want to draft Miles Austin or not draft Matt Forte, but looking at the cold, raw numbers after almost an entire fantasy football season shows us many of our mistakes (and in bar graph form, which makes it slightly less depressing).

Where did we get surprised?

Quarterbacks

The big surprise at quarterback this year for me was Brett Favre, who not only joined the ranks late but also became a fantasy stud down the stretch. He may be fading now, but he still established himself among the top at the position for another year. As much as I loathe him, I’ll give him credit for that.

Jay Cutler, on the other hand, bottomed out more than expected. Clearly, the receiver situation in Chicago isn’t to his liking, and he’s not comfortable in that offense just yet.

Time will tell whether the team takes a new direction by getting a new offensive coordinator or makes a move to acquire a top talent at wide receiver like Anquan Boldin. The only problem with the latter solution is all the picks they gave away to get Cutler in the last offseason.

Cutler’s performance against the Vikings on Monday Night Football could be a good sign that they’re getting on track for 2010.

Running Backs

San Diego Chargers v Tennessee Titans

Chris Johnson was an iffy top running back prospect to start the year. Some took the chance and were greatly rewarded. Others warned that LenDale White would still steal all his scoring opportunities. It’s clear he’s become a fantasy force, one who will continue to be highly drafted. He’s probably the No. 1 overall pick in your draft next season.

But the big surprise was Ray Rice (even though I predicted he’d be good, I didn’t know he’d be this good). He jumped from a murky Baltimore running back situation to become one of the top backs in fantasy, and he’ll probably stay among the elite with Willis McGahee on his way out.

Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones certainly have more staying power than any of us realized. They’re still getting it done, even at their advanced age. Williams owes his scoring chances early in the year to Ronnie Brown, who made the Wildcat a legitimate threat at the goal line throughout his reign of terror until he was injured.

It’ll be interesting to see what Miami and New York do in the offseason. Ronnie Brown is likely to assume the starting duties again once he is healthy, but New York could part ways with Jones if they so choose, opting instead to ride Leon Washington and rookie pounder Shonn Greene.

In recent weeks, they’ve given Greene more than his usual number of carries to see what they have behind Jones for next season.

Wide Receivers

DeSean Jackson came up in the world in a big way as McNabb’s favorite target this season. Is it finally safe to start a Philadelphia receiver? It seems that way for 2010.

The hot names to add to the list of the elite are Miles Austin and Sidney Rice. Both were touted for their physical attributes and explosive talents, but neither had lived up to expectations, falling victim to injury or being buried on the depth chart the past two seasons.

Rice broke out this season as the Vikings’ biggest threat in the passing game, and he’ll only get better, regardless of who comes in to quarterback Minnesota once Favre finally leaves — but will that EVER happen?

Austin should continue to be one of Tony Romo’s favorite, most trusted targets, and that’s extremely valuable with a quarterback as determined to make a play as Romo is every down.

Tight Ends

Vernon Davis, we hardly knew ye. He did it. He finally did it. All it took was a new coach and a new offense geared around his ability to separate from mismatches. Well done, sir.

Brent Celek also proved that the Eagles had really been missing L.J. Smith’s contributions in recent years when injury and ineffectiveness kept Smith from playing the part. Celek’s role at tight end in the Philadelphia offense only adds to the stockpile of weapons at Andy Reid’s disposal.

Kickers

Ha, just kidding. Nothing’s drastically shifted here, but there was a lot of musical chairs being played around the league as certain kickers lost their leg and teams were forced to make a change.

This year has been a surprising one once again, at least for me. A lot of players that we’d looked forward to seeing finally made a show of themselves. It’s safe to say I wish all my leagues were keeper leagues. The young talent we’ve seen this year should be a factor in fantasy football for years to come.

So now, armed with the knowledge of what’s altered the fantasy landscape this season, what can we say? Better luck next year?

Jerome Harrison’s Week 15 Fantasy Playoff Surprise: A Tragedy in Three Parts

December 22nd, 2009
Cleveland Browns v Kansas City Chiefs

There’s no way someone in the fantasy football playoffs was starting Jerome Harrison this week, is there? If so, you must have just received your Christmas miracle.

Did you save an old woman trying to cross the street? Donate an organ to an ill friend? Give a dollar a day to a child in a third-world country? Develop the swine flu vaccine? Whatever you did, it worked, my friend.

No one expected Jerome Harrison, the recently forgotten back in Cleveland, to get a significant amount of carries in Sunday’s not-at-all-playoff-relevant battle between the Browns and the Chiefs. The Mangenius himself hinted that Cleveland’s electric special teamer Josh Cribbs could play a larger role in the running game. Chris Jennings had gotten the 20 carries against the Steelers for 73 yards and a touchdown just one week ago. If anyone was going to be the “traditional” running back in Week 15, it was surely going to be Jennings.

But no. It was Jerome Harrison that stole the show with the third-best rushing performance in NFL history, behind only Adrian Peterson and Jamal Lewis. He also passed up Jim Brown’s single-game team record of 237 yards with his 286-yard, three touchdown blowout. Harrison added 12 receiving yards just because he could.

Outside of a few phenomenal quarterback showings, including Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Joe Flacco, no one even came close to scoring as many points as Jerome Harrison’s 47.8 in standard fantasy scoring.

Josh Cribbs got his, two kick returns of over 100 yards for the NFL record eight he now has, but he didn’t factor into the running game as some suspected he might.

Both Cleveland’s Week 15 stars will be remembered in Canton for these performances, but fantasy football owners will struggle to recover from the depression that comes with losing to the rare, brave soul who started Jerome Harrison this week or be haunted by the self-loathing that comes with losing by just a few points in the fantasy football playoffs while Harrison added 47.8 points to your team’s bench.

And the most tragic part of this tale? Harrison may not even be a good start in Week 16 against Oakland. Would you dare?

Feel free to vent if Jerome Harrison wasn’t your Christmas miracle.

Starting Beanie Wells over Andre Johnson: Smart Play or Crazy Talk?

October 31st, 2009
Buffalo Bills v Carolina Panthers

In a fantasy football group I participate in each week, Fantasy Football Fanatics on LinkedIn, I recommended going with Beanie Wells in a flex spot over Andre Johnson this week.

Am I crazy or is this smart strategy? I’m going with the numbers here.

My argument for going with Beanie:

There is definitely a huge risk factor in starting Beanie. Still, he’s a hot hand and I’d go with my gut on him.

I really don’t think A.J. is going to go this week. He has a bruised lung. That hurts (I can only imagine.) Besides, the Texans know they probably don’t need him to beat the Bills.

If he plays, he’ll likely be limited and share time with Jacoby Jones and Andre Davis. Then, you have to consider how tough the Bills have been against opposing wide receivers. Actually, they’ve been the best. Just check out the stats at FF Today. Meanwhile, Buffalo ranks first on this chart for fantasy points allowed to running backs. Steve Slaton, I like. Andre, I don’t.

This could be Andre Johnson’s worst week of this season, so that’s where I’m coming from in going with Beanie vs. Carolina (tenth most fantasy points allowed to running backs) in a game that could be controlled by defense and the running games.

I am fine with starting either, but Beanie’s matchup wins my vote.

It’s definitely one of those decisions that I’m going out on a limb to make. The safe play is always to start your studs. At least when they fail, you can say they didn’t show up for you, rather than admitting that you made a stupid guess.

So what say the foolish masses? Is this a smart play? Would you start Beanie? Or would you rather play it safe with Andre Johnson, banged-up and facing a receiver-squashing Bills defense?

Fourth & 1 Debate: Two running backs worth stashing

October 26th, 2009

Last week’s Fourth & 1 fantasy football roundtable debate asked, “Which two players are you stashing for the second half? Why?”

I selected LeSean McCoy and Mike Bell as my stashes for the reasons outlined below in my entry for the roundtable. After seeing Brian Westbrook suffer a concussion in Monday Night Football tonight, I think my McCoy pick rings true. Mike Bell is more of a long-term grab that may or may not pay off before the end of the season.

Eagles vs. Chiefs

For the second half, I’m stashing LeSean McCoy from the Philadelphia Eagles. While running back Brian Westbrook is back and healthy right now, it wouldn’t surprise many of his fantasy owners to see him miss another game or two down the road. In his absence, McCoy showed that he could be just as dynamic as a receiver out of the backfield and running back for the Eagles. In the short-term, his impressive play while Westbrook was recovering from injury has earned McCoy a committee share in the running game, which makes him a decent bye-week fill or desperation play through the rest of the season even if Westbrook doesn’t get hurt again.

The Eagles face some tough defenses down the stretch and in the fantasy playoffs, but stashes like McCoy are what fantasy championship teams are all about. If things break right, he could be a huge factor late in the season.

I’m also stashing the New Orleans Saints‘ Mike Bell. It’s unclear how exactly Bell and Pierre Thomas will split the touches in New Orleans, but regardless of how they are used, all fantasy owners should want a piece of the action. The Saints have one of the easiest rushing schedules in the league from here on out. With a stout defense finally making plays and quarterback Drew Brees to keep defenses more than honest, the Saints running backs could lead the league in rushing, or at least fantasy points at running back, from here on out. Not to mention, the Saints high-powered offense gets them in the red zone at will.

Both Thomas and Bell have shown the ability to excel as a part of this offense. Thomas has the top spot at the moment and is in line for a nice second half of the season, but if he were to be injured or if Bell earns a larger portion of the carries, Bell would benefit from the easy schedule and powerful offense.

If you have the room to pack him away, Bell’s a great stash at this point in the season while things in New Orleans are still unclear.

I felt McCoy and Bell could be impact stashes, especially because running back saviors are so hard to find on the waiver wire at this point in the season. Maybe they’re out there on your waiver wires right now as teams adjust for bye weeks and fortify their benches.

If not, there are plenty more where they came from to hide away on your bench and hope for the best. To read up on whom else my fellow roundtable members selected as stashes, take a look at the full Fourth & 1 debate at KFFL.

If you have additional suggestions on players to stash at this point in the season, please drop them in the comments.

Foolish Thoughts: Are you ready for some football?

September 8th, 2009

The final weekend of the preseason might be the worst week as an NFL fan. Starters play only a few minutes while coaches get a look at the rest of the depth chart to make final cuts, and we all know that in just one more week the games will actually mean something. While the Labor Day weekend appeased us with some college football action, real NFL football is now just days away.

Hopefully, you had a good draft without falling victim to many common mistakes. It won’t be long before we see all those third-year wide receivers breaking out and all those high-workload running backs breaking down, or will they?

Big News This Week

In a surprise move, the Detroit Lions declared Matthew Stafford their starter against New Orleans. I expected Stafford to get the call eventually this year, but Daunte Culpepper had outplayed him in camp and in the preseason until his foot injury — oh, the dangers of carpet. Culpepper was expected to at least start the year under center before handing it off to Stafford.

With the golden boy taking the heat right away, don’t expect a Matt Ryan rookie season out of Stafford. He’s a young rookie, and there will be plenty of hard times this season to go along with all the good ones. He actually takes a bit away from Calvin Johnson in my mind since he’s likely to turnover the ball as many times as he gets it down the field.

Tampa Bay also shocked us this weekend. Not by firing their offensive coordinator — there are plenty of people doing that — but by naming Cadillac Williams, the man with the bionic knees, as their starter. Williams will still be splitting time with Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham in some kind of sinful 2-2-1 RBBC combo, but on any given Sunday, he’ll get the first crack at the defense and the first chance to shine. That’s worth something.

Now that you’ve drafted

With your team assembled, this week’s a great time to take care of a few housekeeping issues. Have you checked out how well your backup quarterback fits your starter’s bye week? Have you looked at how your team stacks up for the fantasy playoffs?

These things are good to keep in mind heading into the season. Knowing you have a bad matchup in the playoffs will allow you to start shopping a player in the middle of the season and unload him for something of equal or greater value that can get you to the championship.

I am not too afraid of Green Bay’s tough road in the fantasy playoffs, but Washington looks more and more like a team to get rid of quickly this year.

Shots in the Dark

With the excitement of the preseason, bold statements come out of the woodwork. Unless you’re just looking at the facts and only the facts, you’re probably expecting one of the following predictions to come true. How good do you feel about it now that we enter into the first week of games that matter?

Well, we’ve read all about that. Now, we get to see what comes true. Look out for our starter recommendations and the rest of your weekly prep this week as we begin fantasy football season with a bang.

And so begins our fantasy football addiction…

[You can check in with Norm's latest struggles with fantasy addiction over at Global Sports Fraternity.]