A Fool and His Money in Week 10

No intro. No nonsense. This week, we’re all about the picks, now featuring “locks” of the week.

Note: The ‘$‘ will signify Nick’s “locks” of the week from this point forward while a ‘#‘ will mark Chadam’s favorite bets.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Fools Take: FALCONS (+0) over Saints

Nick says: I think this will be a high scoring affair. The home team has won every NFC South matchup so far this year, and the Falcons are undefeated at home.

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears

Fools Take: Titans (-3) over BEARS $ #

Nick says: The Titans’ defense versus Sexy Rexy. This is a no brainer and one of my locks of the week. We decided to add three locks each week and keep our records on those locks since its true that we don’t gamble on every game every week. We pick out a few we like and those are the ones that really matter.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions

Fools Take: Jaguars (-7) over LIONS

Nick says: What happened to the Jags? They used to have a solid running game, but only managed 69 yards rushing against the Bengals. I was actually going to pick the Lions in this game, but I heard that Culpepper is starting after only a week with the team. That can’t be a good sign for your offense.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins

Fools Take: DOLPHINS (-9) over Seahawks $

Nick says: Guess how many yards the leading receiver on the Seahawks has: Koren Robinson leads the WRs with 12 catches for 182 yards, but rookie TE John Carlson actually leads the team with 244 yards. Wow. I just can’t give any vote of confidence to a team like that.

Green Pay Backers at Minnesota Vikings

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: Packers (+3) over VIKINGS
Nick Takes: VIKINGS (-3) over Packers

In taking the Vikings, Nick says: I went back and forth on this game. Normally, I would take the points in any similar situation, but I just don’t see the Packers having an answer for Purple Jesus.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Fools Take: PATRIOTS (-4.5) over Bills

Nick says: I said last week that it was time for the Bills to panic. They have now lost three of their last four. If they don’t win this one, I’m willing to bet they fold for the rest of the season. I don’t think the Patriots will lose back to back games.

St. Louis Rams at New York Jets

Fools Take: JETS (-7) over Rams

Nick says: Thomas Jones is very quietly having a nice season. He has been the steady hand next to Favre’s typical erratic play. The Jets have struggled with the easy teams this season, but I like them at home against a very bad Rams team.

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: TEXANS (+0) over Ravens
Nick Takes: Ravens (+0) over TEXANS

In taking the Ravens, Nick says: The Ravens come in with a three-game winning streak and winning each game by double digits. I like that momentum, and I’m not sure Sage Rosenfels will be able to overcome that choke job against the Colts earlier in the season.

Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders

Fools Take: Panthers (-7.5) over RAIDERS $ #

Nick says: Has anything changed recently? No, the Raiders still suck. They are so bad that they cut DeAngelo Hall less than eight months after trading for him and signing him to a $70 million contract. Seriously, everyone on that team knows the season is over. Lock it up.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Fools Take: STEELERS (-3) over Colts

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers

Fools Take: Chiefs (+14) over CHARGERS

Nick says: That is just too many points for my liking. The Chiefs have hung in there the last two games, and San Diego hasn’t exactly impressed anyone this year. Plus, my man Jamaal Charles is getting the first start of his career.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Fools Take: Giants (-3) over EAGLES #

Nick says: I like the Eagles, but I’m going to take what a lot of people consider the best team in the NFL and the points. Thank you very much.

San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals

SPLIT DECISION!
Chadam Takes: CARDINALS (-11) over 49ers
Nick Takes: 49ers (+11) over CARDINALS

In taking the 49ers, Nick says: Everybody has now had some time to get on board with Mike Singletary. I like him and Shaun Hill to jumpstart this team. Of course, I don’t expect them to win. All I ask is that they cover the spread.

To summarize…

Chadam’s Locks (#): Titans (-3) over BEARS, Panthers (-7.5) over RAIDERS, Giants (-3) over EAGLES

Nick’s Locks ($): Titans (-3) over BEARS, DOLPHINS (-9) over Seahawks, Panthers (-7.5) over RAIDERS

Last Week:

Chadam: 7-7
Nick: 7-7

Current Standings after Week 9:

Chadam: 64-61-2
Nick: 66-59-2
Simmons: 66-59-3

On the Wire: Waiver Wire Free-for-all from Week 9

It’s time for change, America.

Bring me your injured, your underperforming, your studs gone duds. Together, we can reshape your fantasy team for the future into a team without injustice, without phantom starts (see: Willis McGahee) and without any of Shanahan’s running backs — well, maybe just one.

Yes, we can. Yes, we can. YES, WE CAN.

And on that very original campaign note, Fools in 2012.

I hope you all voted yesterday, but while you were busy at the polls, I was busy collecting a vast array of pickups that could help you make it to the playoffs. In fact, this might the largest waiver wire column I’ve ever written, and upon finishing it, I just wanted to call my friends in to look at it before I unleashed it on the world.

This week in fantasy football, we have another free-for-all on quarterbacks as injuries took the fantasy lives of several recent stars. Going with our theme of “change,” a handful of very bad teams had quarterbacks show promise this week, and there’s no pork in that.

With all the turnover and surprises, we’re going very, very in-depth with a long list of names and fantasy fortunes because, short of a few quick fixes, I wouldn’t expect many fantasy studs to emerge for your playoff run. Gather the depth you need and take a few chances if you can afford the roster space.

There are four more wins to be had, and these guys could be the ones to get you there and keep you there through Week 16 or 17.

It could happen in ’08, people. You can still write yourself in on that final fantasy playoff spot ballot — that is, unless you already lost Ohio.

Worth Claiming

Ryan Torain, RB Denver Broncos – I said he might be the last man standing last week, but now he really is. Michael Pittman and Andre Hall were both placed on the IR after Week 9, so Selvin Young and whatever RB depth Shanahan finds in a back alley this week are Torain’s only competition.

Don’t be scared off by Torain’s one yard on Sunday in three carries. Shanahan wants to bring him along slowly, but if Selvin Young’s hamstring is still holding him back, Torain should get the start against the Browns this week.

Of course, after one series, Shanahan will probably make sure that 75 percent of the touches go to Peyton Hillis so that Hillis looks like the best fantasy back in Denver. Oh, how I hate you, Leatherface.

Ray Rice, RB Baltimore Ravens — McGahee hasn’t been healthy all season, and after disappearing off the map, Rice exploded in Week 9 with 154 yards rushing and 22 yards receiving.

In Week 10 against the Texans, Harbaugh says that both McGahee and Rice will carry the football, but I’d bet Rice sees more looks. The schedule is unkind to Baltimore running backs after this week, but we know they’ll run the football until the very end.

Jamaal Charles, RB Kansas City Chiefs — Much like Torain, Charles is the one and only for the Chiefs…until Larry Johnson returns at least. Charles had 100+ yards against the Bucs, a very tough defense, on only 18 carries.

Johnson remains suspended for Week 10, so Charles could handle a majority of the load against the Chargers. While the Chargers are right in the middle — 16 out of 32 — as far as run defenses go, many a team has had a problem containing Charles. I saw him play at Texas, and when he’s making the right moves and holding onto the ball, he can be deadly — “Let Booby spin!”

When Johnson returns in Week 11, it’ll be interesting to see where the Chiefs want the carries to go, but the rock could stay in Charles hands for a good while with a strong showing this week. We know L.J. is lacking in the gold stars and brownie points.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB New England Patriots — He’s a lock for a score at least once in every Patriots game until Sammy Morris’ or LaMont Jordan’s return. If both continue to sit, “Law Firm” is a decent option in week 10 against Buffalo.

After that, his production against the Jets, Dolphins and Steelers will probably trail off until Sammy Morris or LaMont Jordan make him irrelevant. For now, he’s a solid depth option, and he’s got such a cool nickname.

Maurice Morris, RB Seattle Seahawks — It’s a split, but I like his half better than Julius Jones’ half. A few good matchups still to come for the Seattle run game, and the passing game doesn’t provide much competition.

Ted Ginn Jr., WR Miami Dolphins – He’s still not reliable enough to put all your hopes in after his low-scoring Week 9 performance — that’s why I ignored you last week, Ginn — but don’t take him off your radar just yet.

He doesn’t play a solid secondary for the rest of the season, so Chad Pennington might find him again and again and again. You’ll probably have to get him on your roster now to have him when he goes off again, so add him for some depth if you can or if you’re desperately seeking a WR to stay in the hunt.

Just try not to start him until he has another good game.

Shaun Hill, QB San Francisco 49ers — Hill’s actually my top QB rec this week if you lost one or need a filler for a few more weeks. He’s a Mike Martz quarterback, and he faces the Cardinals, Rams, Cowboys and Bills before playoffs. Only two of those teams rank in the top half of passing defenses, and those same two (Cowboys and Bills) currently have banged up corners. In the fantasy playoffs, Hill faces the Jets, Dolphins and Rams again.

He showed good ball control last season in giving just one interception in three games, and with Martz backing him, he could more productive than he was last season. Maybe he can break the 200-yard mark more frequently, which he almost did in the last half of the game in Week 8.

Brady Quinn, QB Cleveland Browns — Yeah, so that happened. The Browns are making the switch to Brady. I am sure the Browns female fan base is excited, but frankly, I don’t like Quinn anymore than I like Derek Anderson. In fact, I might like him less.

Quinn looked iffy in the preseason, and I couldn’t quite form an opinion on him versus Derek Anderson. He’s not exactly a rookie with almost a full two seasons in the Browns system under his belt, but I expect him to make mistakes, force the ball to Braylon Edwards and maybe even lean on the tight end. Fortunately, the Browns have a pretty good one in Kellen Winslow.

Seems like this move is just one of those “okay, fans, we’re trying” efforts, and I don’t like it. Still, if you had Anderson on your roster, Quinn should produce similar numbers after overcoming growing pains in promising games against the Broncos, Bills, Texans and Colts.

Tyler Thigpen, QB Kansas City Chiefs — When you’re a young quarterback, you just have to hope you end up landing somewhere with a dependable tight end and a dominant wide receiver to target. Luckily for Thigpen, he’s got that, and it’s done him well the past two weeks.

He’s also got a few trick plays up his sleeves and some nice matchups over the next four weeks: Chargers, Saints, Bills and Raiders with fantasy playoffs against Broncos, Chargers and Dolphins.

It’s hard to recommend him with any certainty because he’s no lock to put up points, but he hasn’t turned over the ball and has Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. I think he’s a sleeper to keep it up through the end of the season, but at least you know that he won’t hurt you too badly if he falls in production.

And for some reason, it disgusts me less to recommend young Thigpen than it did to point out Kyle Orton’s success this season. Is it all in the neck beard? Only time will tell.

Sage Rosenfels, QB Houston Texans — Matt Schaub was knocked out for a month with a knee injury. Now Texans fans can finally get that Sage they’ve been looking for this season?

What? They don’t WANT him to start after he helicoptered his way back in the backup role against the Colts?

Rosenfels takes over one of the most potent offenses in fantasy football this weekend, but he also faces the Ravens, Colts, Browns and Jaguars before Schaub returns. That’s not exactly the stretch you want to see for a guy who is known to lead big drives only to end them with a fatal mistake.

It’ll be risky picking him up and expecting studs like Andre Johnson to produce for him in tougher games, but at least the Ravens secondary isn’t at full strength for Week 10.

Claim him if you have Schaub and don’t want to chance other options, but if you are already a lock for the playoffs, why not take chance on someone like Thigpen to produce for you? (Wow, now I’m cheerleading for the guy. Someone virtual-slap me.)

Daunte Culpepper and/or Drew Stanton, QB Detroit Lions — I think the best part of Dan Orlovsky’s current thumb injury is that he had “zero” doubt about playing in Week 10. Maybe Orlovsky’s struggles are due to his misunderstanding of math and percentages? Perhaps he thinks the Lions 0 percent win percentage is a good thing.

Regardless, a thumb injury has him out for Week 10 and possibly much longer. We don’t really know how long at this point.

Drew Stanton knows the system but doesn’t have the confidence of the coaching staff, which is probably why they signed Daunte Culpepper. But Culpepper, a week into the job and almost a year removed from playing football, will be a shaky start in Week 10 against the Jaguars. Marinelli expected him to pick up the offense quickly but not this quickly.

If I had to choose one, I’d take Culpepper for the possible start in Week 10 and the more likely start long-term. Culpepper could develop into a nice No. 2 QB during fantasy playoffs. He plays the Vikings, Colts and Saints, and he has “Megatron” (Calvin Johnson) to throw to each week.

Rex Grossman, QB Chicago Bears – See how that happens? All this outpouring of Kyle Orton love coming out before his game against the Lions, and then a fat Lion takes out his ankle.

With Orton out for four weeks, Grossman is your starter. He’s a shaky start against the Titans, Packers and resurgent Rams defense with his tendency to throw interceptions, but he’s not a bad desperation play.

At least he’ll be able to lean on Matt Forte outside of this week against the Titans.

Kevin Boss, TE New York Giants — Two touchdowns in the past two games, and even though he’s a little banged up with a bad ankle, he faces a Philly defense in Week 10 that’s admitted to having a problem covering tight ends. How’s that sound?

Dan Carpenter, K Miami Dolphins — He’s not on many radars, but Carpenter has put up 29 fantasy points in the last two weeks with seven field goals made and four extra points in that span. The best fantasy sign is that the Dolphins are lining him up deep. Three of his attempts in Week 9 were more than 40 yards out, but he hasn’t been asked to kick one longer than 50.

If he continues to get this many long field goal chances or more extra points once the Dolphins’ offense starts scoring left and right against a bunch of weak fantasy defenses (Seahawks, Raiders, Patriots, Rams, Bills, 49ers, Chiefs), then he could be one of the best kickers to own in the second half.

Guys you probably should have already picked up:

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE Minnesota Vikings — Three touchdowns in his past four games.

Derrick Mason, WR Baltimore Ravens — PPR monster with 130+ and a score in Week 9, but a rough schedule from here.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR Indianapolis Colts — Two TDs in Week 9.

Greg Camarillo, WR Miami Dolphins — More reliable than Ginn and 100+ yards in Week 9.

Kevin Curtis, WR Philadelphia Eagles – Finally showing up with 83 yards, but tough schedule the rest of the way.

Tim Hightower, RB Arizona Cardinals — Now starting and eating touchdowns for breakfast.

Matt Ryan, QB Atlanta Falcons — Not blasting you out of your seat, but good QB2 production and getting better.

Marc Bulger, QB St. Louis Rams — He’s sort of back and has an easier schedule in the second half.

Ones to Watch

Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker, RB New Orleans Saints — We’re getting close to Deuce McAllister’s appeal, so we’ll know soon enough whether he’ll be leaving the Saints’ services. If so, both are likely to produce numbers until the return of Reggie Bush, who might throw things out the window again.

Week 11, the Saints have the Chiefs followed by the Packers, and if for some reason Bush isn’t back by Week 14, then the Saints backs have Atlanta, Chicago and Detroit. Playing the Lions in the fantasy championship game? Check and mate.

Selvin Young, RB Denver Broncos — If he’s healthy, the starting could be his…or Peyton Hillis’…or it might belong to the guy that guy in a cubicle next to you. Regardless, he has value when healthy, and if someone was silly enough to drop him, he could fight for you in games against the Browns, Falcons, Raiders, Jets, Chiefs and Bills.

The playoff section of that run isn’t great, but his return in Week 11 could help you get there. Keep in mind that the Broncos are now a pass-first offense, and pick him up as you see fit.

J.J. Arrington, RB Arizona Cardinals — The speedy back has taken the No. 2 spot in the RB depth chart now that Tim Hightower is the starter. Edgerrin James is not likely to get more than handful of carries in any game, and on Sunday, Arrington was involved in 11 plays with 62 rushing yards and 57 receiving yards.

As long as he’s being used as the compliment to Hightower, Arrington could post similarly impressive numbers, but he’s boom or bust as a third-down, big-play back. Let’s see what he can do against the 49ers in Week 10 before he goes on a roster.

Sidney Rice, WR Minnesota Vikings — The Vikings have been more productive passing the ball, but Rice is just now returning from injury and might not have a chance to make an impact. Even though he caught a TD on Sunday, that was his only catch. Still, if you are preparing for the playoffs, he gets the Lions, Cardinals and Falcons in Weeks 14-16. That’s promising if he gets back in this offense by then.

Mark Bradley, WR Kansas City Chiefs — A former QB and emerging star in the Kansas City offense. He’s been a big part of Thigpen’s success and might be worth jumping on now if you can afford to chance it. Bowe and Tony Gonzalez can both pull double coverage at times to leave Bradley open for a play.

Byron Leftwich, QB Pittsburgh Steelers — If Roethlisberger misses any time with his bruised AC joint, Leftwich should be a capable filler QB in Week 10 against the Colts. Don’t underestimate the Colts passing defense, but to win, the Steelers might have to put some points on the board.

An even better matchup looms large in Week 11 against the Chargers, but I doubt fantasy owners can expect Big Ben to miss that much time. If you just can’t find a QB this week or want to take a chance, keep your eye on the QB situation in Pittsburgh.

Joe Flacco, QB Baltimore Ravens — If you need a quarterback, there are plenty of options this week (see above), but Flacco should be one of the best. He has put up a very good two weeks, and he faces the Texans.

After Week 10 though, he’s probably not worth a roster spot with an intimidating run against the Giants, Eagles, Bengals, Redskins, Steelers and Cowboys.

Yeah, if you don’t need him this week, just keep an eye on him in case miracle juice starts spraying out of his arm after Week 10.

Brent Celek, TE Philadelphia Eagles — So he’s more than just a backup…maybe? Celek, much like Billy Miller, now makes an intriguing fill as long as L.J. Smith is hurt. Smith is expected to make his return in Week 10, but he is currently still listed as questionable.

If he doesn’t go, Celek could get the start against the Giants, ranked second against the pass, and even if Smith is healthy, we’ll have to see how much the Week 9 franchise record-setting performance helped Celek’s stock with the Philly coaching staff.

Consistency is hard to find in the Philly offense, but Celek is worth keeping an eye on if you need depth at the tight end position.

Desmond Clark, TE Chicago Bears — Greg Olsen is to Kyle Orton as Desmond Clark is to Rex Grossman. Rexy just likes the big guy better, and word on the street is that the Chicago passing game might move back to using the tight ends more as short-range options.

Keep your eye on Clark to see how much he factors in. We know Rex will have to escape quite a bit against the Titans in Week 10 and the Vikings in Week 13 until Kyle Orton comes back under the helm.

But even if he finds success with Rex, Clark’s not a playoff depth option when Kyle Orton returns.

Derek Fine, TE Buffalo Bills — Fine is one “fine” tight end (Forgive me) if you just look at his 43-yard, one touchdown stat line from Week 9, but the rest of this season, he’s put up blanks.

If Buffalo involves him in the offense more frequently than the other TEs now that they are lacking a dependable No. 2 receiving threat, Fine could continue to be “fine.” (Sorry, again — they flow out like candy.) Keep your eye on him in Week 10 against the Patriots.

Defenses to watch for the fantasy playoffs:

Arizona Cardinals D/ST — STL, MIN, @NE for a defense that has been deadly at home.

Miami Dolphins D/ST — @BUF, SF, KC with a sack machine coming on strong and an improving secondary.

Ignoring

Cedric Benson, RB Cincinnati Bengals — 100+ yards?!? And a score? The saddest part of Benson’s Week 9 performance was that it was only the third 100+ yard game of his career. THIRD. That’s just crazy.

Unfortunately, unless your playoff bound, he probably won’t ever do it again for you. He faces off against the Eagles, Steelers and Ravens after returning from a bye in Week 10. Sad but true.

The only good matchups remaining on his plate are the Colts in Week 14 (who just got back Bob Sanders) and the Browns in Week 16 — come on, you playing Benson for your championship game. If you have a Week 17 championship game though, he does face the Chiefs, and that could be a worthy start.

Unless you’re going to the playoffs, you can probably safely drop this one-week wonder or wait to see what happens against the Titans. Geesh.

Peyton Hillis, RB Denver Broncos — He caught a lot of passes in Week 9 (116 yards and a TD), but it’s hard to see that happening again this season.

Then again, I guess I said the same thing after Leonard Weaver had his day for Seattle. Shanahan could use his evil force powers on this one and make Hillis the feature back in Week 10, but I still stand by ignoring him as a waiver wire pickup.

If Shanahan makes him worth something, he’s likely to be gone as quickly as he came…I hope. Torain is the guy I would grab from Denver.

Koren Robinson, WR Seattle Seahawks — I think that was a miracle play for the Seahawks, and lightning is not likely strike twice in the same spot. That’s a fact.

Droppables

Rather than make this article cross any further into the 3000+ word realm, I’ll end here, but if you have any questions about who you should drop to get any of these guys, you know what to do!

Hint: Drop them in the comments!

A Fool and His Money in Week 7

This week, I wanted to educate you on two of my favorite types of bets, the parlay and the progressive parlay. With these two wagers, you can arm yourself with the tools necessary to lose money like Chadam and I do. Excited?

My Hard-Earned Winnings
Creative Commons License photo credit: locusolus

A parlay is when you combine several point-spread wagers into one bet. If you pick all the games correctly, you receive a big payout, but if any one of the teams loses, you lose your entire bet.

There is a very high risk in this bet, but it also has a high reward. For example, if you think the Titans, Colts and Jets are all going to cover the spread, you could make three $10 individual bets on each team. If they all win, you win $28.56 in profits ($9.52 on each).

If you bet $30 on a parlay (+644) for those three teams, and they won, you would win $64.42 profit. At the same time, if one team lost you would lose all $30 in the parlay, but you would still make $9 profit from the three individual bets.

You can do a parlay for any amount of game lines you want, but be cautious. Pick too many, and it’s a sucker bet.

A progressive parlay is similar to a parlay but with different odds for how many games you correctly choose. For example, a four-team progressive parlay may pay (+400) if you correctly choose all four games and pay (+100) if you choose three of the four correctly. You have a little room for error in your picks.

The reward for choosing all the games correctly is lower than a parlay payout, but you still have a chance of winning money even if you make one wrong pick.

Progressive parlays change depending on how many games there are. The more teams in the progressive parlay, the more incorrect picks you can make and still win money — Chadam loves these bets.

Chadam had so many lines he loved this week, he couldn’t choose just one to endorse as his favorite. He’s pimping a three-team, seven-point teaser with the Titans (-0.5), Saints (+4) and Jets (+4). Buyer beware.

I like the Colts, Chargers and Jets in a three-team parlay. I might include the Titans and make it progressive…or just make both bets.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants

Chadam Takes: 49ers (+10) over GIANTS
This is my mini-upset of the week, and if Elisha’s chest injury is worse than Coughlin has let on, then I’ll be looking pretty good.

Nick Takes: GIANTS (-10) over 49ers
So what if Giants lost to the Browns last week? The Giants will bounce back at home. I have no respect for Mike Martz, and I think the 49ers are overrated. That’s right, a 2-4 team is overrated. They have only beaten the Lions and the Seahawks while Seattle was injured. The 49ers won’t get more than five wins this season. Boom tho.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Chadam Takes: Steelers (-9.5) over BENGALS
If I were Fitzpatrick, I would be calling in sick to work this weekend. They’ll eventually win a game, just not this one.

Nick Takes: Steelers (-9.5) over BENGALS
I think I got shafted last week because I picked the Bengals thinking they had Carson Palmer. This week, I know they don’t have him, just like I know the Bengals don’t have a chance in this one.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

Chadam Takes: Titans (-7.5) over CHIEFS
I couldn’t believe it when coach Herm Edwards said the Chiefs defense looked amazing last week. Wait, they were on bye? And they were playing against the Chiefs offense? Well, that explains everything.

Nick Takes: Titans (-7.5) over CHIEFS
All Chiefs’ players are going to be disappointed because they weren’t traded away before the trade deadline this past Tuesday. They are going to have no motivation to play hard, especially against a team like the Titans. Consider this game the rent money special.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Chadam Takes: BEARS (-3) over Vikings
Yeah, I’ve decided that these two teams are the exact same, like clones of each other. Let’s roll with the home team on this one and see where it takes us.

Nick Takes: BEARS (-3) over Vikings
I’m not sure what to think about these teams after Chicago losing to Atlanta and the Vikings barely beating the Lions. Frerotte has played well so far, but I still don’t trust him.

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills

Chadam Takes: BILLS (+1) over Chargers
But only because I have to cheer for Trent Edwards for a month in a league where I lost Romo.

Nick Takes: Chargers (-1) over BILLS
Move over L.T., the Chargers’ offense now revolves around Philip Rivers. Rivers is getting it done, and I expect it to continue against the soon-to-be-exposed Bills.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Chadam Takes: Saints (-3) over PANTHERS
It’s like these two teams didn’t even play games last week. What a line. I have a feeling Nick and I will be selling kidneys to finance our wagering on this one.

Nick Takes: Saints (+3) over PANTHERS
The Panthers’ confidence has to be a little shaken after the whooping the Bucs put on them. I expect the Saints to win if they run McAllister and keep dumping off to Bush in short screen passes. If they stick with that formula, I think they can take the division.

Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams

Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-7) over RAMS
The Rams took out Washington with a lucky fumble return and some field goals. I’m willing to bet that Brad “The Human Checkdown” Johnson can beat the Rams with Dallas’ new stud, Roy Williams.

Nick Takes: RAMS (+7) over Cowboys
I love seeing the Cowboys exposed the past few weeks, but expecting the Rams to knock off two NFC East teams in a row seems a bit much. I’m going to take the points because I’m not really sure what to expect with Brad Johnson and the depleted secondary of the Cowboys.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Chadam Takes: Ravens (+2.5) over DOLPHINS
The only good thing about Miami is Dexter.

Nick Takes: DOLPHINS (-2.5) over Ravens
It’s going to be tough for Joe Flacco to bounce back from his horrible showing last week against the Colts. I think this rookie has finally hit the wall.

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans

Chadam Takes: TEXANS (-8.5) over Lions
Here’s the answer to last week’s puzzle: Use the first letter of my picks to form a message for Sage. (Ed. Note: Look at Chadam finding creative ways to be vulgar.) A little late, I know, but the Indy loss still stings even after Sunday’s comeback over Miami. As for this week, I’m thinking the Texans will rush four and have the other seven defenders chase Calvin Johnson around now that Roy Williams and Jon Kitna are out of the picture.

Nick Takes: TEXANS (-8.5) over Lions
Did anyone see Dan Orlovsky run out of the back of his own end zone last week and not even realize it? Kids in Pop Warner don’t even make those kinds of mistakes. Expecting the Texans to win by more than a touchdown is tough, but I believe the Lions are that bad.

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders

Chadam Takes: Jets (-3) over RAIDERS
Didn’t the Raiders just get pwned like n00bs by 31 points? I’m finding it really hard to hate on the Jets with these money-in-the-bank lines Vegas is providing.

Nick Takes: Jets (-3) over RAIDERS
I’m not a fan of the Jets, but I love this bet. Maybe the Raiders will play hard for their new coach, but I don’t think it matters. No way the Raiders can stop Thomas Jones and Brett Favre, much less put up any points under the inaccurate arm of JaMarcus Russell.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers

Chadam Takes: Colts (-1.5) over PACKERS
I hate to say it, but Peyton carved up a very good defense last week. I’ll give them the nod in a possible shootout.

Nick Takes: Colts (-1.5) over PACKERS
I am all about the favorites this week. The Colts finally found their offense just like I knew they would. Aaron Rodgers is about to get schooled by one of the premiere QBs in the NFL. Jeez, I’m going to be putting a lot of money down this weekend.

Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins

Chadam Takes: REDSKINS (-7) over Browns
So much for The Zorn Supremacy. I had the stupid Redskins in an Eliminator league. Guess how that worked out. Anyways, I want to see Cleveland look good one more week before I pay them respect.

Nick Takes: REDSKINS (-7) over Browns
This is an interesting matchup because both teams performed the polar opposite of what we expected last week. The Redskins lost to the winless Rams and the Browns knocked off the undefeated reigning Super Bowl champions. I’m sticking with the Redskins because, looking at the stats last week, I determined that they should have won if it wasn’t for all those turnovers — very uncharacteristic of them.

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pacman LeapingChadam Takes: BUCS (-10.5) over Seahawks
Tampa Bay is like an adopted son to me, and they are one preseason favorite of mine that is actually panning out. By the way, I visited Tampa Bay this past weekend for some boozing and baseball. If you get a chance, hit up Mons Venus. Pacman would give it two thumbs up.

Nick Takes: Seahawks (+10.5) over BUCS
I’m guessing the Bucs will be a little cocky after last week and let their guard down. As the Rams showed us, any team in the NFL is capable of winning on any given Sunday…except the Lions.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

Chadam Takes: Broncos (+3) over PATRIOTS
I hope the Broncos blow this game open and look good doing it so Nick will be tempted to wager on them again.

Nick Takes: Broncos (+3) over PATRIOTS
I will finally admit it; the Patriots are worthless without Brady. They just can’t seem to get any offense going. I know Belichick is using running back by committee, but he just needs to pick one so they can get some rhythm and continuity going in that offense. Matt Cassel isn’t going to provide any, so he might as well try out a running back. I think they are capable of winning this game by 10 points, but I just don’t trust them anymore. I’m going to take the points, but the Broncos are still in my doghouse.

Last Week:

Chadam: 7-7
Nick: 7-7

Current Standings after Week 6:

Chadam: 43-40-2
Nick: 46-37-2
Simmons: 44-41-3

On the Wire: Waiver Wire Hardships from Week 6

As I listened to the end of the Texas-OU game while hunched over in a car on my way to a wedding this weekend, two things occurred to me: 1) people REALLY shouldn’t get married the same weekend as the Texas-OU game and 2) there could be a large amount of rookie quarterbacks coming into the NFL next year.

This season has been brutal to quarterbacks. It’s like they are the running backs this season — drafted highly by fantasy owners but very prone to season-ending injuries because of the abuse they take. Those fantasy footballers who drafted a quarterback high this year more often than not paid the price — yes, I’m looking at you Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Derek Anderson. At least we can all hate the guy that drafted Drew Brees.

On a brighter note, I thought I was going to be very clever in one of my pay leagues this past week in picking up Fred Taylor against a weak Denver run defense. Someone had dropped Taylor because of bye week issues. It was the perfect crime, but we all saw how that turned out.

Fine, waiver wire. You won that one by throwing me a curveball injury, tricky mistress, but there are a few “hardships” to be had this week.

From now until the end of the season, unfortunately, the best waiver wire grabs are starting to stem from surprise injuries, not exceptional or surprising play. It may pain you to pick some of these guys up, but it’s how you play the game. Players put in the same role/situation have equal opportunity to succeed — just look at Correll Buckhalter.

Worth Claiming

Jeff Garcia, QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — He’s a valid spot start his week against Seattle and faces a Dallas secondary in Week 8 that should be starting two rookie corners. It’s only Kansas City in Week 9. Even for Garcia, those could be productive days with the exception of Dallas if the Cowboys come to play. If he can produce more than 10 points in those outings, he might be worth holding onto for short while. Hear that, Hasselbeck/Romo owners? If you wait out his bye and the Vikings, his next two decent starts come against the Lions and the Saints.

Brad Johnson, QB Dallas Cowboys — If Romo decides not to go it the Brett Favre way — hoorah — Johnson gets the call to manage the Dallas offense. With the addition of Roy Williams, he has a good chance to be successful as a pocket-passing statue. Sadly, after a warm, cuddly start against St. Louis this week, he faces Tampa Bay and the Giants. Romo owners, pad your roster with Johnson if you can, but you’ll probably want to look elsewhere after this week. Unless he dominates Week 7, there should be better options out there on your waiver wire.

Derek Anderson, QB Cleveland Browns — Was someone silly enough to drop a player like Anderson after his slow, pathetic start to the season? He had a coming out party in Week 6 — and no, Nick, I’m not talking about Brady Quinn. Anderson has five more games on his schedule that look like he could put up the gaudy numbers of last year, and if he can maintain his play against tough opponents with Braylon Edwards, you’re set. For now, you’ll want to bring him into a QB committee so that you don’t have to start him every week.

Sammy Morris, RB New England Patriots — After all the carnage in the backfield in New England, Morris is “the guy” again for the moment. He might be bouncing around the wire with several other Patriot RBs since Belichick went all Shanahan this year, but he’s worth putting on a roster for his game against Denver, St. Louis and Indy these next three weeks. We all know it’s in Belichick’s best interest to run the ball rather than let Cassel attempt to throw — oops, I mean, underthrow. At least he’s not Dan Orlovsky.

Dominic Rhodes, RB Indianapolis Colts — Rhodes resumed his duty as the Colts RB in Week 6 after Addai injured his hamstring. Hamstrings don’t just go away, so expect Rhodes to get a start or at least get an increased workload in Week 7. The Packers have failed to stop the run lately, so he makes a good play here. If Rhodes can justify holding onto the workload as the season continues, he could be a nice guy to have around come playoffs — Bengals (W14), Lions (W15) and Jags (W16).

Ryan Torain, RB Denver Broncos — If there was ever a time to take him, it’s probably now. Yes, you’re risking it. No, we have no idea if Shanahan will use him. Yes, he did talk a lot about him in the preseason, but no, I don’t trust a man that looks like an outlaw from a Clint Eastwood movie.

Devin Hester, WR Chicago Bears – Hester has proven himself to be a legitimate receiver in the Bears offense. With his potential to get you a returning score as well, there’s a lot of upside to be had in starting him each week. Vikings may limit him before the Bears’ bye, but in Week 9, they get the Lions again.

Kevin Curtis, WR Philadelphia Eagles — He didn’t get back on the field this week, but he’s close. With DeSean Jackson there to take some heat of him in the passing game, he could retake his role as the No. 1 option in Philly. Make sure he’s on your roster if no one has him on their bench yet.

Marcedes Lewis, TE Jacksonville Jaguars — He scores touchdowns with Garrard and has one for each of his last two games. If he keeps it up against the Browns, Bengals and Lions, he could be deadly for a stretch here and a stretch in the fantasy playoffs. You could sleep on him a week though considering he is on bye unless someone else in your league will be after him.

Ones to Watch

Tashard Choice, RB Dallas Cowboys — Felix Jones injured his hammy, which leaves Choice as the best “choice” to spell Marion Barber — I know that I am cheesy. Choice could get Jones’ carries for now, but don’t expect the big plays Jones has broken this season.

Ahman Green, RB Houston Texans — Steve Slaton is the guy to have in the Texans backfield, but Green is getting a share of the touches as well. He could share in the fantasy points against Detroit this week and/or carry some value in the Texans’ good running matchups in Weeks 10-14, but he’s more of a deep league option or depth if you own Slaton.

Kenny Watson, RB Cincinnati Bengals — Chris Perry can’t hold onto the ball, and Benson hasn’t done much better. Neither back has done anything to justify or hold a starting job. Watson was the guy to own in the Bengals backfield last year and could return to the lineup after he heals up. Unfortunately, I don’t think you really want to own any Bengals this year, but keep an eye on him or add him if you are looking for potential upside in deeper leagues.

Donnie Avery, WR St. Louis Rams – Avery, the first WR taken in this year’s draft, had a big game for the Rams in Week 6 with four catches for 73 yards. If he remains involved in the offense when Drew Bennett returns from his injury, he might be a key element in improving the Rams’ record in the second half of 2008. The Rams end the season with some nice passing matchups — Seattle in Week 15 and San Fran in Week 16. Still, he’s not worth jumping on except in deeper leagues unless he can keep a hold on the starting job.

Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers — Six catches for 75 yards? A 57-yard bomb? Is this the Vernon Davis that every preseason analyst talks about? It’s unfortunate that it’s probably all a trick. Davis is a huge, athletic talent, but the 49ers just aren’t using him consistently enough to warrant a starting spot on any roster. All that could change if the other tight end in San Fran who had been showing Davis up in several games, Delanie Walker, has to move to fullback to replace the injured Zak Keasey, but unless Davis posts numbers against the Giants this week, I’m not buying.

Miami Dolphins D/ST — The Dolphins defense has quietly been showing signs of life since being thrashed by the Cardinals in Week 2. They are decent against the run, and Joey Porter has had a resurgence of sorts getting to the QB. They have a hard time against big, playmaking wide receivers (like Andre Johnson), but otherwise, they can put up some fantasy points for you. They have sleeper status going into this week against Baltimore, who just got destroyed by the Colts, and a nice playoff schedule with St. Louis and Kansas City in Weeks 15-16.

New Orleans Saints D/ST — The Saints streak of double-digit fantasy performances continue. As long as Brees keeps putting the ball in the air, he forces the opposing teams to take risks that give this defense opportunities to make big plays. They were even able to shut down the run against Adrian Peterson. Keep watching them as they go into a potential rough patch before their bye facing Carolina and San Diego. Their playoff schedule ain’t too shabby — Atlanta, Chicago and Detroit. All those offenses would have to take big risks to compete.

Ignoring

Warrick Dunn, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Just a note here for all of you jumping on Dunn expecting him to be the dominant runner for the Bucs: The reason Dunn had so many yards was because Earnest Graham volunteered to fill in for the injured fullback, thus earning the praise of both Dunn and Jon Gruden. Barring Graham filling in for the fullback on a permanent basis, he’s still going to get half of the carries in Tampa Bay and a lot more praise. Don’t go after Dunn like he’s taking over, okay?

Patrick Cobbs, RB Miami Dolphins — What do you know, another wrinkle in the ‘Wildcat’ offense. I’m not completely blowing off his Week 6 performance, but Cobbs has done absolutely nothing up until now. He might be a worthy gamble play one of these days, but there’s no promise that this ever happens again.

Shaun Alexander, RB Washington Redskins — Woohoo! Alexander’s back, baby! Well, he’s also sitting behind one of the best backs in fantasy right now, Clinton Portis, and he only got a job because Ladell Betts sprained his knee. If it took Alexander this long to get signed by a team, I’m guessing he’s nothing more than a temporary handcuff to Portis. Do what you will, Portis owners.

You should have already picked up:

Michael Pittman, RB Denver Broncos — He had a pretty nice week as the main guy in Denver. Who knows how long that will last with Ryan Torain on the horizon, but at least he gets goal line carries regardless.

Droppables

Laurence Maroney, RB New England Patriots — I’m sorry if you drafted this guy. Even Belichick may have forgotten who he is. Not sure his potential productivity with that many RBs in the mix makes him worth waiting on at this point.

Sage Rosenfels, QB Houston Texans – Schaub’s got this under control, okay? Thanks.

Michael Bush, RB Oakland Raiders — Bush almost got traded before the deadline, which means the Raiders don’t consider him a big part of their offense. As long as Fargas and Darren McFadden stay healthy enough to play, Bush shouldn’t see much action. The Raiders might not even have that much action in the running game if they try to pass the ball more often like they did in Week 6.

Foolish Thoughts on Week 6: Last-second nonsense

Who is the better Manning now? I think Peyton Manning put ex-lax in his brother’s Gatorade this week. It was time to shut up the critics. Peyton gets three touchdowns; Eli gets three picks. At least in fantasy, it looks like Peyton may have reclaimed his top spot on the Manning mantel for now.

And Eli has lost my respect (again) until he can tackle the lone man running down the sidelines.

Speaking of Peyton, who knew the Colts had a defense? I thought Bob Sanders was the only one making sure those defensive players punched their time cards. Without him, none of them were showing up to work. When the Colts take the lead, apparently the defense comes to play.

Baltimore better rethink that “Joe Flacco is our starter” thing for Week 7.

Could there have been a sloppier looking game than Detroit and Minnesota? Orlovsky’s safetying of himself ended up being the difference in this one. Is that really how the Vikings had to win? They’ve got to look better — same goes for the Cowboys. Adrian Peterson has to start pulling his fantasy weight out there. Bears, Texans and Packers may let him do that.

By the way, Bobby Wade = reliable, incredibly unsexy wide receiver option, but I’ll wait for Sidney Rice.

JaMarcus Russell was overwhelmed by the game plan on Sunday — that’s not exactly the line you want to be spreading to keep your job, Cable. Did you see what Al Davis did to the last guy? I hope you have a family. Otherwise, Davis might just mount you on his wall where no one can hear you scream.

If Brees could throw sniper bullets — which might be possible — the United States would never need an army. He’s throwing with a laser sight, and he should be even more lethal when Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey return.

Is anyone else starting to feel sorry for the Bengals? I mean, they have Ryan Fitzpatrick trying to do what a gimpy-elbowed Carson Palmer has been incapable of doing — win one. Their best chance in the immediate future to get a win is to sneak up on the Texans in Week 8, but the Texans should be ready for that.

I’d look into the kind of offers you can get for your Bengals this week — except for T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Housh could still produce while NFL defenses pay some attention to Chad Johnson.

Favre continues to be wishy-washy in the Jets passing game. Are the Jets going to run or pass next week? If I own Brett Favre, I might look to trade him after his next big day to a team with a more reliable starter. Besides, he’s still got the Madden curse…

Atlanta surprised the crap out of me this year with Matt Ryan. Michael Turner isn’t the only fantasy weapon there. Roddy White is an every-week starter, and Matt Ryan now warrants consideration when his matchup is good. Those scouting reports before the NFL draft that claimed he would be a risky franchise QB look like they were wrong now. In dynasty leagues, I’d try to obtain Roddy and Ryan. Besides, how can you not like a QB that jumps on his coach like a schoolboy after the kicker wins it?

Wha? What? Whaaaa? Carolina shuts out Kansas City and then almost gets shut out and blown away by Tampa Bay. The Panthers defense just became a pain to predict each week. Let’s see which one shows up in Week 7 against the Saints. For their sake, I hope it’s the good one (see: Drew Brees air-to-touchdown destruction tour).

Trap game, huh? The Rams finally won against the Redskins. Was there a curse on NFC East teams this week? (see: Redskins, Giants, Cowboys) I blame Andy Reid. I don’t think that was Haslett’s doing. I’m still very afraid of my Rams. They face the Romo-less Cowboys, Patriots and Cardinals in the next three weeks.

Should NFL coaches start interviewing college defensive coordinators on how to stop that ‘Wildcat’ offense? Ronnie Brown sure makes it look good. Will Patrick Cobbs do that again? (Drop your opinion in the comments.)

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson look like they’re going to get it together this year. Will Houston fans stop calling for Sage now? I thought last week’s helicopter would silence that chant.

Maybe Daniel Graham hasn’t lost his TE skills, but I can’t wait for Tony Scheffler to get back on the field. Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal should be fine. This week was just a slow one due to injuries, and Stokley going out didn’t give Marshall much help. They just need to stop turning the ball over.

If that’s what Maurice Jones-Drew would be like as the starting back in Jacksonville, I’m all for it. Unfortunately, Fred Taylor should squash those dreams again when he gets back on the field.

David Garrard should be on an upswing after this week’s win. The Jags play the Browns, Bengals and Lions in the next three weeks.

Donovan McNabb, like Brees, doesn’t need his best receivers to make plays. Was that Buckhalter or Westbrook out there? I couldn’t tell.

Frank Gore just holds it down every week. Martz with a running game is a nice look. He just needs one more big receiver to come through besides Isaac Bruce. A healthy Bryant Johnson could do the trick — healthy being the key word there.

No one can stay healthy in Seattle. Even Julius Jones and Bobby Engram might suffer for a good while. Charlie Frye is one of those backups you don’t really want starting games for you.

Aaron Rodgers looks the guy that made Favre move on to another team. I’m saying it. I still believe that Ryan Grant will find his old self again soon. They aren’t afraid to run the ball; Grant had 33 carries but only racked up 90 yards. TDs would be nice.

The Arizona defense has looked both idiotic and unstoppable this season. Like Carolina, I don’t know where to place them yet, but they certainly tore apart the Cowboys and injured some key positions.

The Romo loss hurts, but the Cowboys haven’t brought it all together this season despite their talent. Maybe this four-game stint with Brad Johnson will shock them. Big ups to Marion Barber as he might see his workload go up significantly for several weeks.

I think Wade Phillips ate the Pillsbury Doughboy.

Larry Fitzgerald might be the best receiver in the NFL right now, and he certainly could be the best receiver in fantasy in 2008 as long as Kurt Warner stays at quarterback.

At the other end of the quarterback standings, Matt Cassel is a sad copycat of Tom Brady. He just can’t make the throws. Welker’s reliable but gives only meager stats, and Randy Moss is no better than Chad Johnson at this point.

The Chargers’ transition into a throw-first red zone team hurts LaDainian Tomlinson’s value. With his toe injury and limited yardage, he needs touchdowns to put up decent fantasy numbers. Philip Rivers is only good now because Tomlinson is bad. Keep that in mind as they head into the bye.

Congrats on hitting 11,000 career yards, L.T.

The Cleveland Browns are alive again. Was it the ‘Wildcat’ that did it?

Any foolish reader thoughts from Week 6? Post ‘em in the comments.

A Fool and His Money in Week 6

“Just when I thought I was out…they pull me back in.”

There are some crazily enticing lines this week that are making me open up my wallet again. Thanks, Vegas! Besides, I need to find another way to spend my time after I developed this nasty drinking habit after Sunday’s Texans game…

Dear Sage Rosenfels:

You didn’t look too good on Sunday. In case you’re reading, I left a hidden message for you in the article.

Signed,
The entire city of Houston.

I’ll post the answer to Sage’s hidden message in next week’s picks article, and I think you’ll enjoy it. If you think you know what the answer is, please post your guess in the comments. (The Sage picture linked to in our letter is via Gallo on ESPN. Check his selected pics from this week for more good ones.)

Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Chadam Takes: SAINTS (-7.5) over Raiders
Gotta go with the Saints here, even after their Monday night implosion. I’ll chalk Week 5 up as an off week, but if I were Brees, I would be praying for Colston’s return.

Nick Takes: SAINTS (-7.5) over Raiders
I think it’s absolutely hilarious that Reggie Bush had a great game, but the Saints still lose. After the game, he has to act like he’s not excited. He played great, but the team lost. Haha. The Raiders suck; they will lose this game by at least 10 points.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Chadam Takes: Ravens (+5) over COLTS
Out of the last three games the Colts have played, they have received two wins because the opposing team choked the game away and almost got a third if it wasn’t for Josh Scobee’s clutch kick. I’m really excited to see the Colts finish 7-9 this year, which will be followed with every media outlet passing the torch of “Best Manning QB” to Eli. Wait, you mean it’s already happening?

Nick Takes: COLTS (-5) over Ravens
The Ravens have looked good this season, but I just can’t get myself to trust Joe Flacco. The Colts desperately need a good game at home to build some confidence.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets

Chadam Takes: JETS (-6) over Bengals
Favre, your team’s line is too good to pass up. Thank God the Bengals haven’t had their bye week yet because I really like betting against them.

Nick Takes: Bengals (+6) over JETS
The Bengals are going to pounce on somebody soon, and I’m gambling this week is when it happens.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chadam Takes: BUCCANEERS (-1.5) over Panthers
Under normal circumstances, I would laugh at a team that only managed one touchdown against Denver, but I have no idea what to think of Carolina yet. They’re 4-1, but two of those wins are home games against Atlanta and Kansas City, not exactly world-beaters. Also, the Panthers barely beat San Diego in Week 1. I’ll go with my Bucs on this one.

Nick Takes: Panthers (+1.5) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs need quarterback security badly. The whole team just seems restless and out of sync in my opinion. Getting shutdown by the Broncos defense after the Chiefs destroyed the Broncos in Week 4 is embarrassing.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Chadam Takes: Lions (+13.5) over VIKINGS
Come on, even if you don’t like Detroit, you have to love it when Rod Marinelli gets interviewed: “I’m a living example of what fight is all about,” or “Ever, ever…I love this game too much.” It’s like he’s trying to generate stereotypical football coach quotes, but he learned them from Mike Tyson. And yes, that’s the only reason why I’m taking the Lions.

Nick Takes: Lions (+13.5) over VIKINGS
I fully expect the Vikings to win this game, but I expect the Lions to get enough garbage points on the Vikings secondary to justify taking the points. That is, assuming the Lions’ players are still trying. The trade deadline hasn’t passed yet, so hopefully, they can manage trying for one week more before they officially give up.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Chadam Takes: FALCONS (+3) over Bears
Kyle Orton probably got more ass than normal after playing like Brady last week against Detroit. That said, I’m warming up to the Falcons at home, and the Bears’ wins over the Colts and Lions aren’t impressive given the current play of those two teams.

Nick Takes: Bears (-3) over FALCONS
Both of these teams have been playing surprisingly well. I like the Bears defense a little more in this game though.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

Chadam Takes: TEXANS (-3) over Dolphins
You wonder why fans of tortured teams always wait for the other shoe to drop until the game is over. It’s games like the Colts-Texans match last week. I’m starting to understand what Red Sox fans went through a little more. In case you’re wondering, I’ll be watching the upcoming game with a handle of tequila in case something goes wrong. Speaking of Miami, apparently the only play you need to use to go to the Super Bowl is the direct snap to Ronnie Brown. You’d think that after seeing Miami shock two decent teams by using that play repetitively, the Texans coaching staff would pick up on it and practice defending it…right? My liver hopes so.

Nick Takes: Dolphins (+3) over TEXANS
Last week, I witnessed one of the greatest meltdowns for a professional sports team. The Texans found unthinkable ways to lose that game to the Colts. How can that same team possibly be favored in any game, much less against a team that just beat the Patriots and Chargers in consecutive games?

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins

Chadam Takes: REDSKINS (-13.5) over Rams
Okay, there’s no way I’m betting against the Redskins and the Zorn Supremacy again. They’ve cost me three wins already this year. Are they really a top-three team? That division is awesome. The NFC East might only have five losses all year outside of the division between all four teams. (They only have one through five weeks: Philly to Chicago in Week 4.)

Nick Takes: REDSKINS (-13.5) over Rams
Hail to the Redskins! I’ve been riding shotgun on the Redskins’ bandwagon since before the season started, and I don’t plan on getting off anytime soon — that’s what she said.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Chadam Takes: BRONCOS (-3.5) over Jaguars
Unless Jacksonville traded Garrard for Cutler yesterday and I missed it, Denver should be getting a touchdown at home against the Jags.

Nick Takes: Jaguars (+3.5) over BRONCOS
I’m still pissed at the Broncos, and I am choosing the Jags purely out of spite. Maybe the Jags can find their running game in Denver.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers

Chadam Takes: Eagles (-5.5) over 49ERS
Really? The Eagles are last place in their division? Donovan McNabb hasn’t had a great game since the first week, but I think he’ll get back on track here.

Nick Takes: Eagles (-5.5) over 49ERS
The Eagles are getting dangerously close to panic time. They need this win if they want to keep pace with the other NFC East teams for the two NFC wild-card spots. I’m guessing they find a way to win.

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals

Chadam Takes: Cowboys (-5.5) over CARDINALS
So what happened there, Dallas? I put some blind faith in you by picking you to win without even looking at the spread, and you almost end the Bengals’ quest to go winless? I think Owens and Romo wanted to let Cincinnati win so they could go to the inevitable boat party that Cedric Benson would throw after the game. This line is pretty low; the Cowboys are too talented to put less than 30 on the board.

Nick Takes: Cowboys (-5.5) over CARDINALS
The Cowboys are better than the Cardinals. There’s my analysis on the game. But do the Cowboys have anybody that made the NFL All-‘N Sync team? Turns out they are better than the Cardinals in that respect, too.

Nick PRESENTS The 2008 All-‘N Sync Team:

After thinking about it, Matt Leinart isn’t Justin Timberlake. J.T. was the leader of the group who famously dated Britney Spears and Cameron Diaz. Hmm…who does that sound like in the NFL? Tony Romo! Romo leads the Cowboys, dated singer Carrie Underwood and currently shacks up with Jessica Simpson. Here are the other members of the All-‘N Sync team:

  • Tony Romo A.K.A. Justin Timberlake: For the reasons mentioned above.
  • Matt Leinart A.K.A. J.C. Chasez: He doesn’t lead the group, but he still gets plenty of groupie action.
  • Brady Quinn A.K.A. Lance Bass: Eventually, he will come out of the closet and be on “Dancing with the Stars.”
  • Jared Lorenzen A.K.A. Joey Fatone: He is the fat one of the group and wasn’t even very good as a backup.
  • Jon Kitna A.K.A. Chris Kirkpatrick: Do you realize Jon Kitna is in the fairly exclusive 30,000+ yards passing club? Yeah, most of you didn’t realize Kirkpatrick was in ‘N Sync, and now that you know, you still think he sucks.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Chadam Takes: Packers (+2.5) over SEAHAWKS
Every once in a while, I see a line and think “Did Vegas mean -2.5? Or possibly -12.5?” What a joke. This bet almost seems too good to be true.

Nick Takes: Packers (+2.5) over SEAHAWKS
This spread is a joke, right? The Seahawks shouldn’t be favored against anybody other than the Rams. I’m dropping some serious coin on this game.

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers

Chadam Takes: Patriots (+6) over CHARGERS
Lines like this one make me wonder how good Vegas thinks the Patriots are. To be fair, I have no idea either. I’m interested to see if either team will run direct snaps and hope the other team didn’t learn from its previous game against Miami.

Nick Takes: Patriots (+6) over CHARGERS
The Chargers have been very disappointing. The Patriots have been disappointing, too, but the Patriots have won most of their games while being disappointing. That’s the difference.

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns

Eli Manning "Unstoppable" Ad Courtesy of Citizen Watches (via Sports Illustrated)

Eli Manning "Unstoppable" Ad Courtesy of Citizen Watches (via Sports Illustrated)

Chadam Takes: Giants (-7.5) at BROWNS
Forget Peyton. Elisha is now Archie’s favorite daughter. Poor Cooper. He must have one hell of an inferiority complex. I’ll admit, as long as Elisha is facing the Browns and Seahawks, he’s looking damn good. I would even go so far as to say he’s unstoppable, har har.

Nick Takes: Giants (-7.5) over BROWNS
It’s tough not to pick the Giants right now. They have shown they are very good at picking on the losers of the league. The Browns happen to be one of the losers of the league. You do the math.

Last Week:

Nick: 9-3-1
Chadam: 5-7-1

Current Standings after Week 5:

Chadam: 36-33-2
Nick: 39-30-2
Simmons
: 37-34-3

Foolish Thoughts on Week 5: And another three bite the dust?

These sudden, mysterious and largely unreported injuries have got to stop. Last week, Carson Palmer was a late scratch. This week, the victim was Matt Schaub, who was hit by a virus the night before the game.

I normally set lineups Saturday night and then let them run, but this sudden injury plague makes me want to start checking again five minutes before game time on Sunday…and then at four minutes, two minutes and one minute until kickoff.

Thanks to the virus, Matt Schaub turned over the reigns to Sage Rosenfels. He looked like he was the hero of the Texan-kind…until he decided to go airborne. When, as a quarterback (and a big one at that), do you EVER think to go airborne to make a play? It wasn’t even a necessary hurdle attempt.

Stay on the ground and slide, Sage. The air will only hurt you. You are NOT Reggie Bush.

Rosenfels ended the day with 246 yards and a TD but gave Texans fans two fumbles and an interception in the fourth quarter and more than enough reasons for Texans fans to stop whimpering that they would rather see Sage starting instead of Schaub. The not-so-wise Sage gave the game away in the fourth quarter in the home opener. That doesn’t win you hearts.

We saw three more QBs go down in the midst of games this week. Matt Hasselbeck (knee), Trent Edwards (concussion) and Brian Griese (shoulder) all got taken out of Sunday’s games, but they managed better than Damon Huard.

Huard owners WISH he had been taken out sooner to make the hurting stop. Daunte Culpepper was a better start than Huard this week.

Who thought there would ever be a week where J.P. Losman, Seneca Wallace, Jeff Garcia and Tyler Thigpen would all have to take over an offense? My hand is not raised.

Kyle Orton scored more fantasy points than Tony Romo and Jay Cutler this week. In fact, he tied Aaron Rodgers and Big Ben for the best QB performance of the week. I am not saying that again.

He was playing Detroit, but do you realize that he’s scored more points than Tony Romo and Jay Cutler over the last three weeks? I think I’m going to be sick.

When did the Packers get so easy to run on? Injuries and poor run stopping are making this unit very droppable.

Chargers couldn’t handle the single-wing, ‘Wildcat’ formation either. I guess the Dolphins have found something special, and Ronnie Brown is a big part of that. Pennington is like a David Garrard circa last year. He is not going to win your game, but he’s probably good for 12 points from time to time.

The Giants looked impressive against Seattle, but they’re also coming off a bye. No, they don’t need Plax to be successful. Domenik Hixon was a sufficient replacement with big play ability. Who took me up on that sleeper pick?

My thoughts on Jerheme Urban weren’t nearly as spot on, but Breaston didn’t impress either. In a blowout, Larry Fitzgerald was the man. That Tim Hightower kid is worth putting on a roster. You are almost a lock for six or more points with guys like that — vultures.

I think the Arizona defense was angry about getting embarrassed last week, and they took it out on Trent Edwards early. If Edwards is out for any length of time, it shouldn’t take anything away from Lee Evans. We know from Losman’s time under center that he likes to push the long ball to Evans, and he did. Losman may be a little sloppy at times, but there are far worse backup QBs in the NFL (see: Brad Johnson).

Washington just keeps shocking the NFC powerhouses. They were supposed to be the bottom of the barrel in the NFC East, not defeat the Cowboys and Eagles in back-to-back games. I don’t see them doing it twice. For once, Santana Moss was shut down by a defense this year, but Portis went off instead. That’ll take the Eagles down a few notches on run defense.

The Chiefs are miserable. Larry Johnson’s only going to be successful behind this line when the run defense is terrible. Maybe the ‘Wildcat’ formation should come to K.C.? I don’t think that will help — even though getting the ball out of Thigpen’s hands would be an improvement.

Watch out for Jamaal Charles. He might be the next Chris Perry. Oh, and the next Chris Perry might be Cedric Benson.

Kerry Collins made the best case to bring back Vince Young Sunday, and then he (sort of) made a case to keep his job there on the final drive against the Ravens. If Collins is going to throw just as many INTs and not play smart football, I don’t see why Vince Young doesn’t jump back in for the Titans. If they wanted to move away from VY as QB, they would have kept Chris Simms on the roster — unless spleens are really that important to functioning as an NFL quarterback.

Sitting a healthy Vince Young behind Kerry Collins will NOT improve his passer rating. I’ve seen experiments.

Marty Booker and Reggie Wayne are competing in a best hands competition. Next week, they are going to catch a ball with one finger. The “buy low” on Peyton Manning has already passed, but if you can get it, get it. I just have a feeling.

Without Griese, the Bucs look like the same boring team that got stomped in the playoffs last year. If the Broncos could stop the run, the score might have been even lower.

Oh, and Earnest Graham owners, this RB split looks like a full committee approach, and Dunn got the extra carry (11 of 21 total carries by the Bucs) on Sunday. He also had the better yardage per carry. Be afraid. Dunn is not done! (Had to say it. Under contract. Now, go buy the bumper sticker.)

That Matt Prater can really kick, can’t he? The rest of the Broncos kept it relatively quiet so as not to anger the Bucs’ big-pass-hunting defense.

The Bengals at Dallas was like a game of failures. I am not even sure if the Cowboys should have won. If not for a right place, right time grab by Crayton, they might not have. Romo will get the passing game together soon. It’s not like he’s having bad days in the meantime, but removing the interceptions and fumbles from his scoring would be nice.

By the way, I think it’s safe to say that Miles Austin has passed up Patrick Crayton. The missed TD pass to Austin was very symbolic if you want to think deeply about it. (Don’t hurt yourself; I’ll handle it.) Austin outproduced Crayton in Week 3 and Week 4, and the only pass Crayton caught this week was intended for Austin.

That Felix Jones can really run, can’t he? See, Cowboys? See how you use him?

Something tells me that Chris Perry loses his job to Cedric Benson in a few weeks. Perry can’t hold onto the ball or get it done when the Bengals passing game is suffering. Benson already looks like a better back, and he’s only been there one week.

Well, look at that. The Patriots figured out a way for Cassel to get the ball to Moss during the bye week. I’m going to guess DNA injection from Tom Brady in some dark laboratory while Bill Belichick laughed maniacally and rewound tape. Totally how it went down.

I’m still glad I don’t own any Patriot RBs. That’s like trying to guess which clown is going to pop out of the car first. Sammy Morris seems to be the only one with guaranteed touches, but now Faulk looks like he is going to be on the field more often with Matt Cassel. Faulk is the better blocker (see: Tom Brady’s knee).

J.T. O’Sullivan is going to get this 49ers passing game together, and when he does, Martz might just make a respectable fantasy quarterback out of him rather than just a matchups starter.

I would have appreciated a small note from Isaac Bruce before I started to move him in my fantasy leagues. That goose egg in Week 1 made me believe he was done, and now he has to become the No. 1 in San Fran. I wouldn’t have dropped you if I would have known that, Brucey.

Let’s see if Bryant Johnson pushes him for the big plays when he is fully healthy again. I still believe Johnson wants to blow us away and show us he would have been a starter anywhere but Arizona.

I have a short list of sleeper picks that haven’t woken up just yet. No. 1 on that list is Mike Walker. He was supposed to be a big target for Garrard this year, but the passing game has stalled because of the offensive line problems. Don’t be distracted by Jerry Porter. Keep your eye on this guy. If you’re in a league with me, EARMUFFS.

Hines Ward > Santonio Holmes. Ward is always around to make the smart play. Maybe even Nate Washington > Santonio Holmes, but Washington is still a little fluky.

The Vikings deserve to be 1-4, but by winning, they may have saved Childress’s job for a little bit longer.

You want to know why you shouldn’t have drafted Adrian Peterson No. 1 overall? Or even No. 2 overall? With a team like the Vikings, even the Saints defense can focus on the run and let Gus Frerotte beat them. It’ll be a lot of feast or famine for A.P. owners this season.

Gramatica should be replaced by Friday. I don’t care if he’s injured. He shouldn’t be starting for the Saints right now, and that is the bottom line. Reggie Bush was winning this game. Drew Brees was winning this game. Hell, even Devery Henderson was winning this game. Gramatica lost it.

At least the Vikings defense is finally looking like they want it.

Rough week for QBs, but many of the dinged up studs will be back under center by Sunday. Fingers crossed, of course.

Cheers and beers for anyone who started DeAngelo Williams and Kyle Orton, especially if you had them both. I would hope you won your Week 5 matchup. Just make sure you entertain all offers for DeAngelo now.

I’m not the first to propose this name, but if Jonathan Stewart is going to be “The Daily Show,” should we call DeAngelo Williams “The Colbert Report?”

Opinions are much appreciated in the comments. I plan to write the official Fantasy Football Nickname Registry once I have collected some feedback.

Off-season Update: Quick hits at wide receiver, tight end and cornerback [NFL News]

Most of the moves made in the last several weeks have no immediate fantasy impact. Backups are still moving from team to team, but a few starters finally landed at wide receiver in the last couple of weeks.

FANTASY WATCH-WORTHY MOVES

The 49ers dropped Darrell Jackson after his disappointing 2007 and added Bryant Johnson. I would have liked to see Johnson end up in Buffalo where he might have been a compliment to Lee Evans, but he is daring and will take his chances in the new Mike Martz system.

He will get his chance to be a number 1 wide receiver. I don’t expect Isaac Bruce to make a Randy Moss-like revival out there, and Arnaz Battle can’t put up much of a fight.

Ben Utecht escaped the shadow of Dallas Clark to Cincinnati this week when the Colts decided not to match the Bengals offer. Utecht showed some ability with the Colts, and he will become a key target for Carson Palmer in 2008 especially if Ocho Cinco (Chad Johnson) keeps his act up and leaves.

D.J. Hackett finally found someone to answer his agent’s phone calls this offseason and signed with the Carolina Panthers. All the dynasty owners of Dwayne Jarrett just died inside.

Jarrett probably won’t hit the field for awhile now that Carolina has signed Muhsin Muhammad and Hackett unless this move scares him straight. Hackett and Muhammad should be able to open up the field for Steve Smith to make a comeback in production for 2008.

Kickers become fantasy-relevant for once outside of a close fantasy showdown now that Jason Elam has left the high altitude of Colorado to boot for the Falcons in 2008. It’s a tought loss for Denver since Elam won more games than any other single Bronco in 2007. While they search for a replacement, Elam will have to adjust to kicking in Southern humidity. I think he’ll be okay.

The DeAngelo Hall deal finally got done, so now he’s an overpaid Raider, too. The Raiders now have an even better secondary with Nnamdi Asomugha and Hall. Rumor was that they want to nickname the cornerback pair “Haul Ass-o” but Nnamdi won’t go for it.

YOU CAN NEVER HAVE ENOUGH BACKUPS

Quinn Gray signed on to be the second/third quarterback for the Houston Texans. This signing puts the wise Sage Rosenfels in danger of being traded if an offer comes the Texans’ way, or they just want to be VERY secure at the QB position if Matt Schaub goes down again in 2008.

Bubba Franks signed on to the Jets but will likely just provide veteran leadership behind Chris Baker and endless Bubba jokes for the locker room.

NEWS THAT MIGHT INTRIGUE YOU

Brandon Marshall got so upset after last week’s episode of Lost that he put his fist through a TV. He might be out for up to four months.

Just let that be a lesson to you to always pick up your McDonald’s slop after a late night Big Mac binge. I’m not too concerned. He’ll probably be back in shape for training camp and be in line for a breakout season as long as there is no lasting nerve damage.

The Patriots have been taking a look at Josh Johnson, the little known quarterback loved by many scouts and experts as a potential sleeper quarterback of the future. The theory is that the Patriots might try to convert him to a wide receiver if they draft him in a later.

What? They aren’t going to get rid of that Tom Brady guy? Maybe Josh can work the camera until he becomes Brady’s favorite target. He has the potential to be a QB in the NFL if someone puts the time into working him into it.

Week 15 Wire: Sneaky pickups to save your playoff run

petrino yell

Don’t run out the door like Petrino when your team takes an injury late here in the playoffs–or just stinks. There’s a few sneaky plays this week that could still save you and win your championship.

RB Help

Darius Walker, RB HOU
Word is that Ron Dayne will be out week 15. If that happens, there will probably we a running back committee setup, but Darius Walker is likely to be the head of any committee. He got close to 100 yards in his relief role after Dayne went down this week, and the match up for week 15 is the ever-tricky Denver run defense.

Samkon Gado, RB MIA
With Jesse Chatman hurting, Samkon Gado will take the hand offs from Cleo Lemon. Unfortunately, even if Chatman doesn’t start, he is up against Baltimore, who could shut down the running game of Miami even if it is the only offensive weapon they have.

Aaron Stecker, RB NO
If no one grabbed him when Reggie Bush went down, you should have by now. Stecker will be starting the rest of the season since Bush broke down. Get him while he’s hot coming off a 100 yard performance on Monday night.

WR Help

Jabar Gaffney, WR NE
I don’t know if anyone has noticed that Gaffney is really the third receiver in the Patriot offense, not Stallworth. While Stallworth hasn’t been dancing to the goalposts much at all this season, Gaffney has been scoring TDs in the Patriots games. Look for him to continue to be a risky WR but a great play if you need a potential upset sub in a 3 WR roster.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR IND
I think he finally woke up and realized he was in Marvin Harrison’s shoes. He should be a nice sub until Harrison comes back–wait, who am I kidding? He will play out the rest of the regular season. Don’t expect 2 TDs, but he can put up yardage and possibly a TD every week with Manning throwing the way he is. As a cautionary note, the match up for this week is not that great since Oakland should let Addai take an express train to the TD every time he gets the ball.

Reggie Williams, WR JAX
The butterfingers of Williams have gotten a better grip with Garrard at the helm. Look for him to have a big day whenever Garrard does, but don’t start him over a stud since he is risky except for 3 WR sets.

QB Help

Trent Edwards, QB BUF
Edwards is the choice pick coming off his 4 TD performance against Miami. He now faces Cleveland’s pass defense, so grab him if your stud has a HORRIBLE match up or if you just like taking chances for big plays this week.

Sage Rosenfels, QB HOU
Sage is a wise one. Even in tough match ups, he tends to perform well. He does get to throw to Andre Johnson. While Edwards is the better grab. If you miss him, Rosenfels could help you out at QB this week.

Week 14: Save me for the playoffs! Save me!

We will do something a little different this week.

Considering that you are probably either entering the playoffs or crying with the stall door closed in the men’s (or women’s) restroom, we are just going to take a look at the players that could replace your injured starters.

Of those players that are starting, just look back through previous week’s waiver pick ups to see who you might have missed, but I would assume the names are probably familiar to you if you have been doing your research all season. These guys might not be on your radar.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Bryant Johnson, WR ARI
Everyone is hurting in Arizona WR group. Watch the injury reports, but Johnson should be one of the two starters come Sunday. He has already been involved in the offense and should continue to be.

Arnaz Battle, WR SF
Battle has a TD in his last two games and headsinto some nice match ups with the Vikings and Bengals in weeks 14 and 15.

Sidney Rice, WR MIN
He did it again. Rice has a TD in his last two games as well. Even though the Vikings passing game hasn’t been a highlight this season, Rice has the big play ability. Take a risk on him only if you have a receiver not playing up to their potential here at the end of the season, but I mentioned him last week as well.

Mike Furrey/Shaun McDonald, WR DET
If the rumor that Roy Williams is out for the rest of the season is true, these two should clean up catching passes from Kitna in his absence. They definitely won’t have much luck running the ball in the fantasy playoffs against Dallas, San Diego and Kansas City.

RUNNING BACKS

Chris Brown, RB TEN
LenDale White’s injury is not too serious–just a finger–but he will probably continue to split time. If you are desperate, he breaths and runs with a football. The Titnas don’t have a great match up until week 16 against the Jets, but by then, they will probably have all three running backs taking carries against the weak Jets run defense.

Ladell Betts, RB WAS
If you have Portis, it is a must to have Betts on your roster. This week especially since Portis was hurt in the game and may/may not start this next week.

Reuben Droughns, RB NYG
Droughns could be the starter for a few games with Jacobs out and Ward breaking his leg this past Sunday. Watch the injury reports on Jacobs. If Droughns finishes the regular season, he will have a nice match up against Buffalo behind the strong Giants line in week 16.

Fred Jackson, RB BUF
He just might be the starter for Buffalo agianst Miami this weekend, but Marshawn Lynch might also return this week and make things difficult to call. He looked good starting this past week and broke 150 yards with his rushing and reception yards. Check Lynch at practice this week.

QUARTERBACKS

Sage Rosenfels, QB HOU
Word is that Schaub might be out for the season with his dislocated shoulder. Rosenfels would finish out the season against Tampa Bay, Denver and Indy. Not promising, but if you need a QB, he might now be the starter.

Gus Frerotte, QB STL
He’s only valuable for a few games until Marc Bulger comes back for the Rams, which might be this week, but he has a miraculous match up against Cincinnati in week 14 if Bulger does sit before it gets darker from there with Green Bay and Pittsburgh. He is prone to throw INTs, but he also likey the touchdowns.

Vinny Testaverde, QB CAR
Vinny might be the starter now in Carolina, and even though they aren’t utilizing Steve Smith lately, they are still scoring TDs. They play the Jags this week, so you know they are going to have to throw. Follow that with a Seattle and Dallas match up that are decent but not great for the old guy.

Dangerous plays at QB: Rex Grossman, Brodie Croyle, Trent Edwards, John Beck
Use them at your own risk. They have no good match ups and could leave you with more turnovers than TDs in the playoffs. A quarterback is one of the positions that can make or break your week–especially this year.