Brady’s Back: Now Where Should I Draft Him?

Tom Brady’s Week 1 knee injury in 2008 caused more than one owner in the world of fantasy football to collapse in front of their TV in tears before they ever even learned of Matt Cassel’s existence. It was just the kind of nightmare that fantasy owners fear when they assemble their team at the draft, and the unbelievable destruction of 2007’s fantasy superstar just minutes into the season shocked the fantasy world.

I had taken the plunge and drafted Brady at the tail end of two first rounds rather than taking a lesser-than stud running back. It hurts to get screwed in the first week. It really does.

You’re still a pansy for crying, but for the most part, fantasy owners have now come to grips with the injury. Tom Brady is back on the field throwing the football with a knee that might just be better than any knee to come before it. There’s nothing to fear … well, nothing except paying too much for him in the draft this season.

The Year that Never Was
In 2008, Brady was arguably the only quarterback worth flirting with in the first round, a fantasy prospect who measured up to the best running backs in the league. Even though no quarterback has ever lived up to the hype after a record fantasy season, experts anticipated that Brady would top the fantasy quarterback charts again regardless of a dip in production.

After a year away from football spent “recovering from his injury,” ranking fantasy football’s prodigal son is no easy task. I feel like I hardly know him anymore.

Brady spent an entire year frolicking through injury with his supermodel girlfriend, getting married to said supermodel girlfriend and playing with his son who is “so cool!” Are we getting the same Tom back that we took off the field almost one year ago?

The Patriots: One Year Older But Staying the Same Age
If we weren’t, Bill Belichick would have already regrown him in a lab this offseason anyway, so there’s no worries there. Brady’s got the same weapons around him that made him such a success in 2007 — Randy Moss going deep, Wes Welker in the slot and the crowded backfield Belichick turns into a running game. Veteran burner Joey Galloway replaces Donte Stallworth in 2009 on the other side of Moss, but Stallworth was largely invisible as a Patriot anyway. While Belichick’s “no mercy” attitude may be taken down a notch from the record levels it hit in 2007, the stage is set in Boston for Brady to return to fantasy glory as soon as he shakes the rust off.

But the other teams of the AFC East are quite different than they were in 2007 and have the potential to keep Brady from reaching his 2007 numbers.

The Less Defenseless AFC East
The Miami Dolphins, rejuvenated by Bill Parcells, have a stingy defense and an improving, conservative offense. With the Wildcat, Ronnie Brown tore apart the Matt Cassel-led Patriots in 2008, and I would expect them to get creative in 2009 as well. The New York Jets, no longer suffering from Brett Favre’s skill for turning over the ball, should bring a ball-control, run-based offense and a more aggressive defense to the table under new head coach Rex Ryan. And in the frigid North, the Buffalo Bills could surprise the Patriots with a healthy defense and a more explosive offense, upgraded with Terrell Owens and led by developing third-year quarterback Trent Edwards.

The Patriots will also face the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans this season, two defenses that don’t play nice with high-powered offenses.

Ranking the Golden Boy
I fully expect Brady to resume control of the Patriot offense and start the season with something to prove, just as he does every year, but it would be foolish — and who’s foolish around here? — to expect him to break records in 2009. He’s likely to struggle early until he gets back into his rhythm just as Peyton Manning’s game was a little off to start the 2008 season.

Expect top-three numbers from Brady by season’s end, purely because of the weapons he has at his disposal, but be prepared for lows early in the season, especially in bad matchups.

The rise of Drew Brees may distract owners enough for Brady to be ignored in the first and second rounds this year, which could make his draft stock a budget buy in the third round. He’s currently tied behind Brees for the No. 2 quarterback spot with Peyton Manning in my book, and I’d give the edge to Brady this year. How about you?

Sound off
The comments are yours. Tell me what you think of Tommy Boy this season.

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  • http://fantasyfootball4winners.blogspot.com/ Scott McShane

    Great Brady video. I'll have to admit I went for the early QB last year too and just stared at the TV for 5 minutes, without saying a word, when Brady went down. THERE WAS NO CRYING!!!!
    Brady will be hard to judge this year. Belichick is so open about injury reports, esp with the GOLDEN CHILD. I really have to see him in some game action before I can take him over Brees. You can't ignore a major knee injury. Manning's numbers will improve now that he is healthy, but as long as reports are positive, I would chance it with Brady over Peyton. The Pats offense is still scary good.

    Scott
    http://fantasyfootball4winners.blogspot.com/

  • http://www.fantasyfootballfools.com Jacob

    No crying? Not even a little bit?

    It's hard to trust Brady again this year, but when you blow away the stat lines like he did in 2007 with this offense, someone's bound to overlook the risk. I would only consider drafting Drew Brees in the first couple of rounds this season. Let someone else draft Brady that early if they want to take the risk.

  • http://www.fantasyfootballfools.com Jacob

    No crying? Not even a little bit?

    It's hard to trust Brady again this year, but when you blow away the stat lines like he did in 2007 with this offense, someone's bound to overlook the risk. I would only consider drafting Drew Brees in the first couple of rounds this season. Let someone else draft Brady that early if they want to take the risk.

  • http://fantasyfootball4winners.blogspot.com/ Scott McShane

    Great Brady video. I'll have to admit I went for the early QB last year too and just stared at the TV for 5 minutes, without saying a word, when Brady went down. THERE WAS NO CRYING!!!!
    Brady will be hard to judge this year. Belichick is so open about injury reports, esp with the GOLDEN CHILD. I really have to see him in some game action before I can take him over Brees. You can't ignore a major knee injury. Manning's numbers will improve now that he is healthy, but as long as reports are positive, I would chance it with Brady over Peyton. The Pats offense is still scary good.

    Scott
    http://fantasyfootball4winners.blogspot.com/

  • http://www.fantasyfootballfools.com Jacob

    No crying? Not even a little bit?

    It's hard to trust Brady again this year, but when you blow away the stat lines like he did in 2007 with this offense, someone's bound to overlook the risk. I would only consider drafting Drew Brees in the first couple of rounds this season. Let someone else draft Brady that early if they want to take the risk.